Alexandria Cullen

Statistics Article - JMC 301

November 13, 2022

The Future of Arizona’s Retail Success.

Like any cause and effect, as Arizona's population continues to rise, the economy
continues to change. Experts at the University of Arizona say that the largest change is
expected to be in retail as it grows into the 2023 season.

According to the Eller College of Management’s Economic Outlook, retail across the
state is forecasted to be 2.5% higher in 2023 reaching a total of 167 million dollars, than the
current 2022 total of 148 million, (Hammond, 2022). However, with the projected growth in the
coming years, local retailers are skeptical of this prediction.

The economic baseline scenario shows the retail sales percentages have been soaring
at an increasing rate since the year 2020. Despite the years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and
the effect that it had on the economy, retailers in Arizona say that their sales were at their peak
during the shutdown and have since begun to decline.

Zac Lopez, an employee at State Forty Eight, a local company who specializes in
clothing apparel and merchandise inspired by and promoting the state of Arizona, spoke about
the business’s rise and decline from the years pre-pandemic through the current year.

“Prior to COVID, we were sending out shipments of roughly 700 boxes a month, but
during the shutdown, our sales skyrocketed,” Lopez said. “The first week of the shutdown, our
orders went from 700 to 1500 orders.”

The business got creative and took the extra material from their apparel to make masks
for customers, and threw in a free one every order, as an incentive to buy more.

However, Lopez stated that as times have begun to shift into the “new normal” their
sales have slowly decreased.

“The costs of our materials and other goods have increased, and unfortunately it causes
a domino effect,” said Lopez. “Even the boxes we ship with are becoming more expensive. So
therefore, our shipping prices are higher, and people are not buying at the same rate.”

Similarly, Jayson Stebbins, an employee at a clothing and coffee store located in

Glendale Arizona, called District 48 reported having a comparable experience.

“Business began to slow around August of 2019, right before the pandemic hit, but from
May 2020, through the end of 2021 we had record high numbers,” Stebbins said. “Now that we
are into 2022, our sales have started to go back to where we were pre-pandemic. Those two
years were phenomenal during what was supposed to be the worst years.”

Speaking with customer Gary DiTomaso at The District 48 pop up booth, DiTomaso was
not surprised by the projected numbers.

“I personally am looking forward to Christmas shopping, and even going overboard this
year,” DiTomaso said. “I think everyone is excited to have the opportunity to go back out and
shop, and don't mind spending a little bit more, especially when it supports small businesses
here locally.”

With Arizona being amidst the five fastest-growing states in America, and the city of
Phoenix topping the charts as the number one fastest-growing in the U.S. for the fifth year in a
row, economic spending will undoubtedly continue to develop.

Be that as it may, it will be interesting to see how the projected statistics end up relating
to the total spending actually incurred.

Expert Professors at the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management as well as

Phoenix’s Community and Economic Executive Team were contacted and asked for comment,
however no response has been received as of this time.
Arizona Economic Outlook. Eller College of Management. (2022, September 6). Retrieved
November 13, 2022, from
https://eller.arizona.edu/departments-research/centers-labs/economic-business-research/
arizona-economic-outlook#:~:text=It%20is%20forecast%20to%20decline,Arizona%2C
%20Phoenix%2C%20and%20Tucson.