country1 country2 Trade(ten thousand) GDP1(million) GDP2(million)

China Germany 646296.448 426915.713 2131571.697

China Germany 1000814.925 444731.282 2071323.790
China Germany 1189848.013 564324.670 2205074.123
China Germany 1370923.981 734547.898 2585792.275
China Germany 1316674.611 863746.718 2497244.600
China Germany 1267811.226 961603.953 2211989.623
China Germany 1437489.254 1029043.100 2238990.770
China Germany 1611497.570 1093997.267 2194945.278
China Germany 1968652.050 1211346.870 1947981.991
China Germany 2352328.996 1339395.719 1945790.973
China Germany 2778826.488 1470550.015 2078484.517
China Germany 4173400.112 1660287.966 2501640.388
China Germany 5411175.275 1955347.005 2814353.870
China Germany 6325005.921 2285965.892 2846864.211
China Germany 7819396.333 2752131.770 2994703.642
China Germany 9412847.968 3550342.737 3425578.382
China Germany 11499888.126 4594307.030 3745264.094
China Germany 10568364.835 5101703.073 3411261.213
China Germany 14229840.547 6087163.875 3399667.820
China Germany 16912621.894 7551500.124 3749314.991
China Germany 16114581.293 8532229.987 3527143.189
China Germany 16149925.015 9570406.236 3733804.650
China Germany 17771580.896 10475682.920 3889093.051
China Germany 15677819.468 11061553.080 3357585.720
China Germany 15132306.044 11233276.500 3469853.464
China Germany 16807450.922 12310409.370 3690849.150
China Germany 18381285.203 13894817.500 3977289.455
China Germany 18487617.353 14279937.470 3888326.789
China Germany 19191756.687 14722730.700 3846413.929
China Germany 25446580.960 17298592.600 4223116.206

Trade flow and estimated economic distance

Geography Distance 7357.5509
30000000.000

25000000.000

20000000.000

15000000.000

10000000.000
15000000.000

10000000.000

5000000.000

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Trade Economic Distance

𝐹_𝑖𝑗=𝐺𝑀_𝑖𝑀_𝑗/𝐷_𝑖𝑗^2
𝑇_𝑖𝑗=𝑒^𝛽_0𝑌_𝑖^𝛽_1𝑌_𝑗^𝛽_2/𝐷_𝑖𝑗^𝛽_3
 Distance(Replaced by a tansportation cost index*Geography Distance) Log(Trade) Constant
3.5811 13.3790135753361 1.0000
3.5974 13.8163251508933 1.0000
3.5718 13.9893361365946 1.0000
3.5752 14.130995509013 1.0000
3.6059 14.0906198820138 1.0000
3.5558 14.0528025271864 1.0000
3.5600 14.1784085764257 1.0000
3.5555 14.2926744724487 1.0000
3.4803 14.4928596278866 1.0000
3.4794 14.6709164573851 1.0000
3.4470 14.8375392699276 1.0000
3.3989 15.2442416362139 1.0000
3.3422 15.5039768684122 1.0000
3.3038 15.6600215286407 1.0000
3.2677 15.8721179142988 1.0000
3.2649 16.0575861190763 1.0000
3.2883 16.2578478651122 1.0000
3.4026 16.1733756472038 1.0000
3.3468 16.4708517645922 1.0000
3.3393 16.6435707587671 1.0000
3.3484 16.5952350904554 1.0000
3.3663 16.5974259645881 1.0000
3.3765 16.6931111604956 1.0000
3.3917 16.5677574986753 1.0000
3.4237 16.5323424894843 1.0000
3.4223 16.6373328533151 1.0000
3.4290 16.7268435964407 1.0000
3.4401 16.7326117336754 1.0000
3.4548 16.7699914055868 1.0000
3.4500 17.0520919485175 1.0000

estimated economic distance

3.7000
Coefficient Standard error
Constant 7.5363 3.0747
GDP 1 3.6000 0.7035 0.0441
GDP 2 0.5666 0.2106
Distance -8.8693 0.8737
3.5000
D.F. 26
Error 0.1103
3.4000
Covariance Constant GDP 1
Constant 9.4538868 0.0883
GDP 1 3.3000 0.0883 0.0019

3.2000
 3.4000

3.3000
GDP 2 -0.5901 -0.0081
Distance -1.6110 0.0030
3.2000

3.1000

3.0000
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

ade Economic Distance

 Coefficient Standard error
#VALUE! #VALUE!
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#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

40
0.0889

Constant GDP 1
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

𝐹_𝑖𝑗=𝐺𝑀_𝑖𝑀_𝑗/𝐷_𝑖𝑗^2 Law of gravity (universal gravitation)

𝑇_𝑖𝑗=𝑒^𝛽_0𝑌_𝑖^𝛽_1𝑌_𝑗^𝛽_2/𝐷_𝑖𝑗^𝛽_3 Gravity model of trade

ln𝑇_𝑖𝑗=𝛽_0+𝛽_1ln𝑌_𝑖+𝛽_2ln𝑌_𝑗−𝛽_3ln𝐷_𝑖𝑗+𝜀_𝑖𝑗
Log(GDP1) Log(GDP2) Log(Distance) Predicted Error
12.9643 14.5724 1.2757 13.5992 -0.2202
13.0052 14.5437 1.2802 13.5714 0.2450
13.2434 14.6063 1.2731 13.8377 0.1517
13.5070 14.7655 1.2740 14.1049 0.0261
13.6690 14.7307 1.2826 14.1233 -0.0327
13.7764 14.6094 1.2686 14.2543 -0.2015
13.8441 14.6215 1.2698 14.2984 -0.1200
13.9053 14.6017 1.2685 14.3414 -0.0487
14.0072 14.4823 1.2471 14.5349 -0.0420
14.1077 14.4812 1.2469 14.6074 0.0635
14.2011 14.5471 1.2375 14.7933 0.0442
14.3225 14.7325 1.2235 15.1084 0.1358
14.4861 14.8502 1.2066 15.4394 0.0646
14.6423 14.8617 1.1951 15.6583 0.0017
14.8279 14.9124 1.1841 15.9150 -0.0429
15.0826 15.0468 1.1832 16.1779 -0.1203
15.3403 15.1360 1.1904 16.3466 -0.0887
15.4451 15.0426 1.2245 16.0643 0.1091
15.6217 15.0392 1.2080 16.3332 0.1377
15.8373 15.1371 1.2058 16.5603 0.0833
15.9594 15.0760 1.2085 16.5874 0.0079
16.0742 15.1329 1.2138 16.6532 -0.0557
16.1646 15.1737 1.2168 16.7129 -0.0198
16.2190 15.0267 1.2213 16.6281 -0.0603
16.2344 15.0596 1.2307 16.5743 -0.0420
16.3260 15.1214 1.2303 16.6774 -0.0401
16.4470 15.1961 1.2323 16.7874 -0.0606
16.4744 15.1735 1.2355 16.7654 -0.0327
16.5049 15.1627 1.2398 16.7428 0.0272
16.6661 15.2561 1.2384 16.9215 0.1306

7357.5509

T-stat p-value
2.4511 2.13%
15.9537 0.00%
2.6910 1.23%
-10.1510 0.00%

GDP 2 Distance
-0.5901 -1.6110
-0.0081 0.0030
0.0443 0.0419
0.0419 0.7634
 T-stat p-value
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

GDP 2 Distance
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
country1 country2 longitude1 longitude2 latitude1 latitude2 Distance
China Germany 116.4074 13.405 39.9042 52.52 7357.551
HarHaversine formula
Country Name Indicator Name 1992 1993 1994 1995
China GDP (current US$) 4.26916E+11 444731282435.5 5.64325E+11 7.34548E+11
Germany GDP (current US$) 2.13157E+12 2071323790370 2.20507E+12 2.58579E+12

Country Name total revenue

China Yi=s*GDPi 3.41533E+11 355785025948.4 4.5146E+11 5.87638E+11
Germany Yj=s*GDPj 1.70526E+12 1657059032296 1.76406E+12 2.06863E+12

Reporter Name Indicator 1992 1993 1994 1995

China Export (US$ Thousand) 84940013.57 91743944.704 121006260.2 148779499.5
Germany Export (US$ Thousand) 430276307 380074808 427100056 523696751
Product 3.65477E+16 3.48695622E+16 5.16818E+16 7.79153E+16

Country Name Domestic trade volume 1992 1993 1994 1995

China Xii=Yi-Xij 3.41448E+11 355693282003.7 4.51339E+11 5.8749E+11
Germany Xjj=Yj-Xji 1.70483E+12 1656678957488 1.76363E+12 2.06811E+12
Product 5.82109E+23 5.89269576E+23 7.95996E+23 1.21499E+24

1992 1993 1994 1995

Πij 3.581056138 3.597408939803 3.571825575 3.575229373
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
8.63747E+11 9.61604E+11 1.02904E+12 1.094E+12 1.21135E+12 1.3394E+12 1.47055E+12
2.49724E+12 2.21199E+12 2.23899E+12 2.1942E+12 1.94315E+12 1.94411E+12 2.06862E+12

6.90997E+11 7.69283E+11 8.23234E+11 8.752E+11 9.69077E+11 1.07152E+12 1.17644E+12

1.9978E+12 1.76959E+12 1.79119E+12 1.7554E+12 1.55452E+12 1.55529E+12 1.6549E+12

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

151047454.7 182791585.8 183808983 194930779 249202551 266098208.6 325595969.8
524165984.2 512440270.8 543555256.3 542835573 549606741 571426720 615997391
7.91739E+16 9.36698E+16 9.99103E+16 1.0582E+17 1.36963E+17 1.52056E+17 2.00566E+17

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

6.90846E+11 7.691E+11 8.23051E+11 8.75E+11 9.68828E+11 1.07125E+12 1.17611E+12
1.99727E+12 1.76908E+12 1.79065E+12 1.7548E+12 1.55397E+12 1.55471E+12 1.65428E+12
1.37981E+24 1.3606E+24 1.47379E+24 1.5355E+24 1.50553E+24 1.66549E+24 1.94563E+24

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

3.60593736 3.555765755 3.559985275 3.55549029 3.48034138 3.47938922 3.447039614
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1.66029E+12 1.95535E+12 2.28597E+12 2.75213E+12 3.55034E+12 4.59431E+12 5.1017E+12
2.49613E+12 2.80919E+12 2.8458E+12 2.9922E+12 3.42123E+12 3.73003E+12 3.39779E+12

1.32823E+12 1.56428E+12 1.82877E+12 2.20171E+12 2.84027E+12 3.67545E+12 4.08136E+12

1.9969E+12 2.24735E+12 2.27664E+12 2.39376E+12 2.73698E+12 2.98402E+12 2.71823E+12

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

438227767.4 593325581.4 761953409.5 968935601 1220059668 1430693066 1201646758
748531267 911742096 977131972 1121962887 1328841354 1457462950 1125844048
3.28027E+17 5.4096E+17 7.44529E+17 1.08711E+18 1.62127E+18 2.08518E+18 1.35287E+18

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1.32779E+12 1.56368E+12 1.82801E+12 2.20074E+12 2.83905E+12 3.67401E+12 4.08016E+12
1.99615E+12 2.24644E+12 2.27567E+12 2.39264E+12 2.73565E+12 2.98256E+12 2.71711E+12
2.65048E+24 3.51272E+24 4.15994E+24 5.26556E+24 7.76667E+24 1.0958E+25 1.10862E+25

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

3.398909243 3.342233682 3.303815634 3.267713224 3.264941762 3.288275647 3.402592344
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
6.08716E+12 7.5515E+12 8.53223E+12 9.57041E+12 1.04757E+13 1.10616E+13 1.12333E+13
3.39635E+12 3.74441E+12 3.52734E+12 3.73274E+12 3.88392E+12 3.35624E+12 3.4675E+12

4.86973E+12 6.0412E+12 6.82578E+12 7.65632E+12 8.38055E+12 8.84924E+12 8.98662E+12

2.71708E+12 2.99553E+12 2.82188E+12 2.98619E+12 3.10714E+12 2.68499E+12 2.774E+12

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1577763751 1898388435 2048782233 2209007280 2342292696 2273468224 2097637172
1267743109 1483802558 1412396694 1450937515 1498238432 1328500249 1337236558
2.0002E+18 2.81683E+18 2.89369E+18 3.20513E+18 3.50931E+18 3.0203E+18 2.80504E+18

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

4.86815E+12 6.0393E+12 6.82374E+12 7.65412E+12 8.3782E+12 8.84697E+12 8.98452E+12
2.71582E+12 2.99404E+12 2.82046E+12 2.98474E+12 3.10564E+12 2.68366E+12 2.77266E+12
1.3221E+25 1.80819E+25 1.92461E+25 2.28456E+25 2.60197E+25 2.37423E+25 2.4911E+25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3.346802607 3.339278051 3.348402867 3.366281887 3.376507086 3.391726957 3.423705521
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1.23104E+13 1.38948E+13 1.42799E+13 1.47227E+13 17298592600000
3.67351E+12 3.96183E+12 3.86112E+12 3.80606E+12 4223116206000

9.84833E+12 1.11159E+13 1.14239E+13 1.17782E+13 13838874080000

2.93881E+12 3.16947E+12 3.0889E+12 3.04485E+12 3378492964800

2017 2018 2019 2020

2263370504 2486439720 2499206994 2589098353
1446642435 1562418816 1493266564 1385852260 107770000000
3.27429E+18 3.88486E+18 3.73198E+18 3.58811E+18

2017 2018 2019 2020

9.84606E+12 1.11134E+13 1.14215E+13 1.17756E+13
2.93736E+12 3.1679E+12 3.08741E+12 3.04346E+12
2.89214E+25 3.52061E+25 3.52627E+25 3.58386E+25

2017 2018 2019 2020

3.422280445 3.429039398 3.440070457 3.454792335