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DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

AN INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK | EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
CSS EXAM DESK | DAILY TIMES | AUTHORED BY SAUD BIN AHSEN
 Disaster Risk Reduction
CSS Exam Desk | Daily Times
Authored by Saud bin Ahsen
An Institutional Framework
October 13 is celebrated as the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction by the
United Nations, countries all across the globe are urged to focus on the prevention
and minimisation of the risks posed by natural disasters. Disasters have a
monumental impact on the economies, lives and basic infrastructure of those
affected. In 2022, the International Day will focus on Target G of the Sendai
Framework i.e. “Availability of multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk
information and assessments to people.” It has even greater importance with
reference to Pakistan, especially after the recent barrage of floods which has
wreaked havoc across the country. This write-up contains two levels. The first is an
institutional framework for disaster management at the national level. Meanwhile,
the second part explores whether early warning systems can help reduce the social
and financial cost of disaster management. I ask whether any such system has been
deployed in the case of Pakistan.

Pakistan started climate change initiatives in 1971 and signed 14 international

commitments until 2001. Under the 18th constitutional amendment, the Ministry of
Environment was handed over to the provinces, and a new federal Ministry of
Disaster Management was established in 2011, which was later renamed the
Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) in 2012. In 2013, the MoCC was reverted to the
Cabinet Secretariat, but was upgraded again as a ministry in 2015.

The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) 2012 offers a framework for tackling
climate change challenges. It emphasises the significance of adaptation and
mitigation strategies. Similarly, the National Climate Change Policy Implementation
Framework 2014-2030 offers strategic guidance to integrate adaptation and
mitigation measures across sectors. With the passing of the Climate Change Act in
2017, the Prime Minister-led Pakistan Climate Change Council was also established
as an apex policymaking organisation.

There are a number of limitations in our current framework for disaster

management. I will speak about some of these problems. There is no contact
between NDMA and PDMAs and the vulnerable communities, leaving a gap between
planners and citizens. DMAs are not connected with institutions of collaborative
learning through which pilot programmes and research could be done. Most
frameworks are adopted from international practices, which sometimes do not
coincide with Pakistani culture and norms.

The lack of funding and technology compels Pakistan to adopt a “response and
recovery approach regarding disaster preparedness and management.” However, in
developed and middle-income nations, it is more about preparedness which requires
thoughtful planning and safety precautions. Dealing with money difficulties is
another important aspect. In 2015, the implementation of the District Risk
Mitigation (DRM) Plan was delayed by a lack of resources. Even the current budget
does not support federal funding for PDMAs/DDMAs.

The absence of technology and more importantly, data on catastrophe & climate risk
hinder risk-mitigation planning. According to the Climate Change Profile of Pakistan
2017, “WAPDA generates water & power related data, National Energy Conservation
Centre and Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) collect data on renewable
sources.” Among ministries, coordination and information sharing remain weak.

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Our institutions are not motivated to combat climate change, resulting in a waste of
resources and inefficiency. For instance, WAPDA, the Global Change Impact Studies
Centre (GCISC), and the water wing of PARC are working on glaciers but mainly in
isolation. Furthermore, the focus of NCCP 2012, as a stand-alone climate change
strategy, leaves a huge gap vis-à-vis the country’s economic goals. Besides,
provincial ownership of NCCP 2012 is either absent or weak.

Most importantly, according to the Climate Change Profile of Pakistan 2017, “the
frequent changes in status and policy focus of a single institution convey two
messages. First, there is an evolving degree of understanding among key policy and
decision-makers about the interdependencies and linkages of environmental issues,
initially with disaster management, and then with the broader theme of climate
change.” This argument is supported by the gradual increase in framing climate
change in key policy documents such as the Poverty Reduction Strategy, Framework
for Economic Growth, and the Economic Survey of Pakistan. Second, it reflects a
rather reactive and bifurcated approach toward managing issues of the environment
and climate change, without a concrete course of action. This creates confusion
among the key policy-makers when it comes to linking and decoupling the two
issues, which can be traced, again, through the key policy document. For example,
from 2012-2019, the Economic Survey of Pakistan continued to acknowledge the
Climate Change Policy under the environment section.

Early Warning System

In the second part of this write-up, I will focus on the Early Warning System, which
is also incidentally the core theme for this year’s UN-designated day.

Early Warning System (EWS) is the provision of timely and effective information;
allowing vulnerable communities to avoid or reduce risk. It is an integration of four
main elements–risk knowledge, monitoring and predicting, disseminating
information, and response. EWS is recognised as an effective tool to improve
preparedness and response to natural hazards. Social benefits include mitigating
loss of life and property while financial benefits include limiting the extent of
damages caused by disasters through timely evacuation from vulnerable areas and
taking mitigating measures, reducing the cost of disaster response to the state and
reducing the cost of losses to citizens. DRR Policy 2012 emphasises the importance
of EWS. It aims to reduce vulnerability and risk by identifying and monitoring
vulnerability and hazard trends. It aims to create Multi-Hazard Early Warning
capacity and strengthen disaster-preparedness and response capacity.

National Multi-Hazard EWS Plan was prepared in 2012 by NDMA with JICA
assistance. Its implementation period was 10 years, with a review after five years.
The goals include optimum preparedness, timely warning for evacuation, emergency
responses and rapid damage assessment. Four strategies have been identified for
the implementation of the EWS plan. The first strategy focuses on strengthening
disaster forecasting through projects to optimally utilise existing EWS (upgradation)
as well as procurement and installation of new EWSs. The second strategy aims at
preparing hazard maps for vulnerable locations to serve as the basis for the
formulation of the localised disaster management plan. The third strategy relates to
strengthening early warning dissemination systems as a communication system is
essential for the prompt dissemination of warnings to all stakeholders
simultaneously without hierarchy. The fourth strategy is for developing the capacity
of EWS as it is structured by facilities and equipment whose initial and operational
costs for sustainability are quite low and economical.
Agencies responsible at the Federal Government level include NDMA, Federal Flood
Commission (FFC), Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD), WAPDA, Geological
Survey of Pakistan (GSP), Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW), Army,
National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Indus River System Authority (IRSA),

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Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), (ERRA), Planning
Commission. The Provincial Government level includes F/G/S/PDMAs, Civil
Defense, Rescue 1122, (Fire Brigades), Health and Social Welfare The District
Government level includes DDMAs (DCs/DCOs, Revenue Offices, etc.), Police, Civil
Defense, TMAs, CDGs. Tehsils, UCs and non-governmental level include NGOs,
INGOs, Mosques, Schools, Media, and the Pakistan Red Crescent Society (PRCS).
The total cost for the implementation of the DRR plan was USD 1,040.90 million
with which the cost of establishing multi-hazard early warning and evacuation
systems was only USD 188.50 million (18 per cent), while the cost of infrastructure
development for disaster risk reduction was USD 707.6 million (68 per cent). After
10 years, the plan is still not fully implemented, while the EWS portion has been
implemented partially. And recent floods have badly exposed ill-preparedness in the
worst possible manner.

Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) has deployed a Weather Forecast System to

monitor Heat waves, Torrential rains, and Snow Storms, a Flood warning system
(Assisted by WAPDA, Irrigation Department), a GLOF warning system and a Drought
forecast system. Moreover, GSP has an Earthquake Warning System and NIO is
equipped with a Tsunami Warning System. PMD has 117 metrological observatories
to record and monitor weather data, out of which 70 are Automatic Weather
Stations (AWS). The requirement for Pakistan, as per International Standards, is
551–leaving a gap of 434 AWS. The estimated cost of these AWS is Rs 13.677 billion,
which can be acquired through international climate funding i.e. Global
Environment Facility (GEF) and Green Climate Fund (GCF) in three years. Adequate
availability of AWS would result in a more accurate warning of disasters.

PSDP Outlay for DRR is highly skewed as the only acquisition of two weather
Surveillance Radars is in progress at a cost of Rs 3.4 billion while the “10 billion
Trees Tsunami Program” is being executed at a cost of Rs 125.184 billion. There is
an over-emphasis on one project while ignoring others. Moreover, there is no
significant project for a disaster warning system included in the PSDP outlay,
mainly due to a lack of political will and limited fiscal space.

Pakistan started climate change initiatives in 1971, and even after 50 years, all local
endeavours of Pakistan suffer from basic issues. Major gaps confronting disaster
risk reduction mechanisms include a reactive mindset amongst civil servants, which
still focuses on relief rather than preparedness. In addition, the absence of linkages,
lack of communication and coordination, insufficient funding and duplication of
work further aggravate the situation. Recommendations: Create awareness amongst
civil servants-change of mindset from relief to preparedness and remove overlap in
the NDMA Act and other laws. Add a schedule in the NDMA Act 2010 to spell out
the responsibilities of various organisations. Amend Punjab Emergency Service Act
2006 to align it with NDMA Act 2010 and abolish district emergency boards and
district disaster management committees to avoid overlap with DDMAs.

Amendment in section 31 of NDMA Act and Finance Acts of provinces and bind
provincial finance departments and federal finance division to release one (01 per
cent) mandatory spend on disaster management before releasing the first tranche of
development funds for every project. Likewise, the addition of section 31-A in the
NDMA Act: 0.5 per cent out of 01 per cent be allocated for preparedness and the
remaining 0.5 per cent be invested in a reserve fund for relief and rehabilitation.

Early Warning Systems are to be installed and information should be disseminated

through PTA, and mobile apps. EWS, as envisaged in National Multi-Hazard EWS
Plan, 2012, costing USD 1,040.90 million, be implemented at the earliest, preferably
through development funds or international grants. Automatic Weather Stations
(AWS), 434 in number, should be deployed at an estimated cost of Rs 13.677 billion,
which would result in a more accurate warning of disasters.

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