PAKISTAN AFFAIRS

BY
FAYSAL HAYAT
 DETERMINANTS OF
FOREIGN POLICY, FOREIGN
POLICY OF PAKISTAN,
REGIONAL CHALLENGES
AND WAY FORWARD
 WHAT IS FOREIGN POLICY?
• Foreign Policy is the key element in the process by
which a state translates its broadly conceived goals and
interests into concrete courses of action to attain these
objectives and preserve its interests.-The Dynamics of
International Politics by Padelford and Lincoln
• The use of a state’s political influence in order to induce
other states to exercise their law making power in a
manner desired by the state concerned. - Prof
Northedge
 WHAT IS FOREIGN POLICY?
• Complex and Dynamic political course that a
nation follows in relation to other states-
Brookings Institute Book Major Problems in
US Foreign Policy
• Foreign Policy in essence is a reflection of
internal policy in external domain- Shamshad
Ahmad
OBJECTIVES OF FOREIGN POLICY
• First and Foremost is preserve the Territorial Integrity of that
particular nation
• Secure interests of its people both internally and externally
• Establishing links with international players and adopting either a
policy of confrontation or conciliation, depending on as it suits the
national interests
• Promotion of national security? alliances and counter alliances or non
alignment altogether
• Fostering deep trade and economic ties to supplant the economic well
being of the people.
 EXAMPLES
• FP of Pakistan regarding Duarand line issue, commensurate with the priority of
safeguarding its territorial integrity.
• The oversees Pakistani portals and consulates extension of services to citizens
abroad serve to secure citizens interests
• Multilateral Talks like WEF Webinar, links Pakistan with world community on
issues of common and shared values viz a viz climate change etc
• Pakistan’s recent dossier regarding India demonstrates its aggressive policy
towards Indian adventurism.
• Pakistans foreign policy towards major powers eg China, USA reflects its
economic agenda and interests with them , that guide its foreign policy into that
direction
DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN POLICY

• What is a determinant? factors

influencing a particular issue.
• Types?
• May be endogenous, exogenous.
• Thus, Determinants of Foreign
Policy are intact factors affecting
the FP of Pakistan?
 INTERNAL FACTORS
• Size
• Geography
• Culture and History
• Economic Development
• Tech Advancements
 INTERNAL FACTORS
• National Capacity
• Social Structure
• Public Mood
• Political Organization and
Leadership
• Press
 EXTERNAL FACTORS
• Power Structure
• International Organization
• Reaction of Other States
• Alliances
 “Domestic policy can only defeat
us; foreign policy can kill us” are
the words of the 35th President of
the United States of American,
John F. Kennedy
 FOREIGN POLICY CONSTANTS
OF PAKISTAN
• Pakistan’s foreign policy revolves around these
broadly defined Constants
• Survival
• Peace Within Peace Without
• India-centric
• Economic Interests
• Brotherly Ties with Muslim Ummah
OBJECTIVES OF FP OF PAKISTAN
• Promoting Pakistan as a dynamic, progressive,
moderate, and democratic Islamic country.
• Developing friendly relations with all countries of the
world, especially major powers, immediate neighbors
and Muslim countries and avoiding policy of
confrontation
• Safeguarding national security and territorial integrity
including Kashmiris’ right for self-determination
OBJECTIVES OF FP OF PAKISTAN
• Consolidating commercial and economic
cooperation with international community.
• Safeguarding the interests of Pakistan on
international level
• Effective utilization of natural resources for regional
and international cooperation.
• Achieve international prestige, honor and
recognition with its foreign policy.
 INTERNAL CHALLENGES

• Internal Security Situation (Baluchistan

conundrum)
• Pakistan ranked seventh- with a score of 7.541
• On the index that measures the impact
of terrorism.
• Border Porosity and Afghan Spill Over?
 CHALLENGES TO FOREIGN POLICY OF
PAKISTAN
• Cross border involvement in Baluchistan
via Iran and Afghanistan (Kalbhoshan
Yadev Case) and CPEC Threat
• Recent Hazara Issue in Baluchistan and
BLA etc terror activities in Quetta.
CHALLENGES TO FOREIGN POLICY OF
PAKISTAN
• Political Instability
• PDM and Anti Government Narratives in full swing
• Chicken Libido of religious right wing Parties
(Recent TLP Fiasco)
• Freedom House Rating of Partially Democratic and
Partially Free
• Economically Trying Circumstances
CHALLENGES TO FOREIGN POLICY OF
PAKISTAN
• Negative GDP Growth Rate
• Double Digit Inflation, Poverty accentuation and pandemic
struck
• Employment Indices
• IMF Bailout Package Doom and Gloom
• Stagnant Agri Growth, Declining Services and Mildly
Improved Industry
• Macroeconomic Crises (Debt Servicing, Structural
Adjustment, CAD, Circular Debt)
CHALLENGES TO FOREIGN POLICY
OF PAKISTAN
• FDI Issues?
• Civil-Military Frictions
• Dawn Leaks
• Turf Battles. Democracy Index Ranking
2019 108/167
• Securitized Strategic Culture
CHALLENGES TO FOREIGN POLICY
OF PAKISTAN
• Corruption Scourge and Bad Governance
• World Governance Indicator 2nd lowest only
better then Afghanistan
• World Justice Project Ranking 120/128
• Corruption Perception Index Ranking 124/180
• Legatum Prosperity Index 138 in the world
• Anti Money Laundering Ranking 83/129
 EXTERNAL CHALLENGES
• Afghan Peace Process
• Indian Belligerence (False Flags,
Disinformation, UN Trivialization) in Kashmir
• US-China Strategic Competition ( Indopacific
Strategy)
• Bottlenecks of CPEC
• Rising INDO-US-ISRAELI Troika
 EXTERNAL CHALLENGES
• Terror Hub Label and Image Issues
• Iran Saudi Rivalry
• CAREC Questions (TAPI, CASA 1000)
• EU and GSP Plus Status
• Nuclear Security and International
Concerns.
 WAY FORWARD
• Maintaining The Momentum Against Terrorism and
Radicalization. 3Ns (NAP, NACTA, NISP)
• Democratic Continuity-Tapping the inbuilt Weeding
and Pruning Ability of Democratic Process
• Fostering a Productive National Debate in House
and in Media-Nationally Pertinent Narrative
Building
 WAY FORWARD
• Social Vulnerability Nets to Curtail IMF Consequences,
Structural Reforms ,Enhancing Ease of Doing Business
(FDI), Hoarders Crackdown and Digitization of
Economy
• Charter of Governance-Inter-Institutional Power
Sharing Accord
• Robust Failsafe Accountability Mechanism: Xi’s Tigers
and Flies Case in Point
• E-Governance Model Implementation
 WAY FORWARD
• Indian Belligerence
• Resolution of Outstanding issues including
Kashmir.
• Convincing India to Undo unilateral annexation of
Kashmir and restoring its special status by involving
regional players like China and Russia.
• Furthermore, developing a robust media strategy to
internationalize the issue
 WAY FORWARD
• Solution to be in accordance with international commitments under
UN.
• A proposed formula can be Demilitarization, UN Trusteeship for a
period of 3 years followed by plebiscite
• Making Afghan peace a Success.
• Reducing coldness in relationship with Iran.
• Realizing the opportunity to foster alliance with IRAN in the wake of
India’s dilly dallying on Chabahar Port, China showing interest in Iran
and Iran refusing Indian role in Gas field pipeline project.
• Also joint markets is a step in the right direction.
 WAY FORWARD
• Initiating CBMs with India
• Depoliticization of Water and restoration of talks
• Latching onto the Track-2 Olive Branches
• Kartharpur Corridor Soft Power Media strategy(
Realisng a new Hindu corridor)- Assignment
• People to People Contacts-Fostering Healthy
Relationships
 WAYFORWARD
• Trans-border messengers of peace: Intelligentsia and Artists
• Utilization of Regional Cooperation Mechanisms like SAARC
and SCO to foster trade ties and realizing the potential of
energy corridor- IPI, TAPI, CASA1000- Building geo-economic
bridges to entwine two nations together in the long term.
• Assignment (Pak-India Trade Current and Potential, CASA-
1000? TAPI? IPI?)
• Deepening China Ties to counterbalance Indo-US-Israel Nexus
 WAY FORWARD
• US-China Strategic Competition and INDO-US-
ISRAELI TROIKA ( Indo-pacific Strategy)
• Support to claims of China,
• Developing robust maritime and Defense capability
with Chinas help,
• Middle Line Approach-Not to get sucked into us-
China cold war, maintaining a pragmatic foreign
policy based wholly solely on national interests.
 WAY FORWARD
• Slow Peddling of Relationship with USA-
Assignment (Recent Resolution passed by US
regarding Trade with Pakistan?)
• countering rising Indian maritime threat and
actualization of BRI
• Reigniting Ties with Russia
• Beyond BRI? TECH, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
 WAY FORWARD
• Actualization of CPEC
• Reenergizing CPEC
• Revitalizing CFTA
• CPECA Empowerment through parliament
• Enhancing Security
• Addressing interprovincial Discords
 WAY FORWARD
• Removing litigation Bottle necks
• Capacity Building for Transit Trade Economy
• Terror Banner? Terror Financier ? Hub?
• Compliance with FATF: Animating Diplomatic
Clout
• Mobilizing intelligentsia: International Media
Strategy
 WAY FORWARD
• Promoting Soft Image: Tourism
• Harnessing Diaspora Abroad
• Addressing 5th Gen. War -Assignment (What
is 5th Gen. War?)
• How being waged against Pakistan? what is
hybrid war?
• (AAHRUS Denmark Report?)
 WAY FORWARD
• Iran Saudi Rivalry
• Maintaining National Dignity (remittance versus respect dilemma)
• Neutrality Cum Balancing Approach- Exercising Strategic Flexibility
(IPRI Faizan Rai Solution)
• Fostering Inter sectarian Harmony- Animating OIC Tech wing
• Having the best of both worlds
• Vying for Rapprochement between Iran-KSA-Mediation
• Maintaining Aloofness to Abraham Accords-Assignment (What
Pakistan Gains or loses from recognizing Israel?)
 WAY FORWARD
• CAREC Questions (TAPI, CASA 1000)
• Linked with Afghanistan Peace Process
• Can be a stepping stone for unhinging the
geoeconomics potential of Pakistan
• Energy Corridor Idea-Fate Changer for
Pakistan?
 WAY FORWARD
• Nuclear Security and International Concerns -Indian Space
Race Antics (already Addressed)
• Other?
• Fostering decent ties across Muslim ummah
• Developing and building on cordiality with an emerging
Eurasian Bloc
• Expanding Trade Options and Expanding FDI Base through
Commercial Diplomacy
• Making a resilient FP through institutions strengthening
THANK YOU!