Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

Trip Generation Exercise

Question 1
An analyst came up with the following regression equations and a simple correlation matrix for
20 zones, as given:
Y  50.5  0.80 X 1

se  210, R 2  0.95, t  34

Y  308  0.79 X 2

se  844, R 2  0.88, t  29

Y  52.7  0.85 X 2  1.75 X 3

se  205, R 2  0.98, t  60;22

Y  105  1.38 X 2  0.4 X 3  0.1 X 4

se  155, R 2  0.97, t  3;2;0.5

where

Y = trips produced Y X1 X2 X3 X4
Y 1.0 0.95 0.85 0.42 0.23
X 1  total population X1 1.00 0.92 0.53 0.22
X 2  blue  collar population X2 1.00 0.35 0.09
X3 1.00 0.12
X 3  white  collar population X4 1.00

X 4  school  going children

Comment on the suitability of these equations for use in a transportation study.

Solution:
 Equation 1 appears logical and satisfactory, and the t value is significant at the 1% level of
significance. t 0.01,df 18  2.88  34. R 2 is very high.
 Equation 2 is also logical and quite satisfactory, although A=308 is not reasonable. In Eq. 3,
with two independent variables, X 2 and X 3 , but with about the same standard error, there is
not much of an improvement over Eq.1. Both partial regression coefficients are statistically
significant (t=2.898, df=17). Note that although R 2 is very high, this is not the best equation
to work with.
 Equation 4 has a very high R 2 , but it appears to be unreasonable in two respects: first, the
negative coefficient (-105) is not logical; also, for df=16, t 0.01 =2.92 is greater than 2.0 and 0.5
for X 3 and X 4 . An examination of the matrix reveals that X 1 and X 2 are highly correlated
Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

with Y, and X 3 and X 4 are not as highly correlated (0.42 and 0.23). However, X 1 is highly
correlated with X 2 and therefore X 2 could be easily eliminated.
 Of all the equations, Eq.1 seems the most logical to use. Two points may be noted: (1) a high
R 2 by itself means little if the t-test is marginal or poor, and (2) just having a large number of
independent variables does not mean very much. A large number of variables is expensive
from the data-gathering point of view.

Question 2

An origin-destination survey in 10 travel-analysis zones provided the following data relating to

zonal residential densities (households/acre) and average daily trip productions per household.
Calibrate and plot a model of the form 10Y  AX  B

Density X: 42 5 25 10 4 15 0 12 14 22
Trip rate Y: 1.5 4.0 2.1 2.6 4.8 2.0 2.5 3.3 1.9 2.0

Solution:

Y  log A  B log X
Y  a  bZ

Y 1.5 4.0 2.1 2.6 4.8 2.0 2.5 3.3 1.9 2.0
Z 1.62 0.70 1.40 1.00 0.60 1.18 1.30 1.08 1.15 1.34

By linear regression

a = 6.14 and b = -3.06

Y=6.14-3.06logX

This relationship is plotted below:

8 Y
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 X
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

Question 3

A transportation engineer was hired by the city planning department too calibrate a multiple
regression model for trip productions. The department has collected base year data for the
following variables:
P1 = trip productions
X 1  zone population
X 2  median income
X 3  median age
X 4  car registrations
X 5  number of dwelling units

A preliminary analysis of the data resulted in the following simple correlation matrix.

P1 X1 X2 X3 X4 X5
P1 1.00 0.95 0.83 0.41 0.82 0.85
X1 1.00 -0.21 0.22 -0.29 0.91
X2 1.00 0.82 0.89 -0.43
X3 1.00 -0.19 -0.15
X4 1.00 -0.22

Specify at least five possible equations that may be tried and give the specific reasons for their
selection.

Solution:

X 1 , X 2 , X 4 , and X 5 are highly correlated with P1 and should be considered for inclusion.
However, X 1 and X 5 should not appear in the same equation because they are highly correlated.
For the same reason, X 2 and X 4 should not be used together. Examples of possible equations
are listed below:

a) Y  a  bX 1
b) Y  a  bX 2
c) Y  a  bX 1  cX 2
d) Y  a  bX 4
e) Y  a  bX 5
f) Y  a  bX 2  cX 5
etc.
Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

Trip Distribution Exercise

Q1. Complete the following table given that P1  1000 trips per day, C=2.0, and all KIJ  10
.

Zone AJ WIJ FIJ QIJ

1 0 
2 400 20
3 300 5
4 100 5
5 200 10

Q2. Assuming that the relationship between F and W is the form F  AW  c , apply the
method of least squares to the following data to estimate the parameters A and c.

F: 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03

W: 7 5 12 8

Q3. A base-year trip-generation study obtained the data shown relating to the daily person-
trip productions per dwelling unit (Y) and residential density (X dwelling units per acre).

Y: 3.5 6.5 4.0 2.2

X: 30.0 10.0 50.0 70.0
(a) Calibrate and plot and relationship (a  bX ) 1 .
(b) Apply your answers to part (a) to the following situation: A residential zone I has an
area of 500 acres and contains 7500 dwelling units. Two zones (J and L) are
comprising for the trips produced by I. Given the following information, calculate the
trip interchange volumes QIJ and QIL if WIJ =12, WIL =8, ln F  15. ln W , AJ  0.5 AL ,
and all K IJ =1.0.
Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

Solutions:

Q1:

P1  1000

J AJ FIJ K IJ AJ FIJ K IJ PIJ QIJ QIJ

1      
2 4 0.0025 1.0 1 0.053 53
3 3 0.0400 1.0 12 0.632 632
4 1 0.0400 1.0 4 0.211 211
5 2 0.0100 1.0 2 0.105 105
 19 1.000 1000

Q2:
F  AW  c
ln F  ln A  c ln W
Y  a  bX
Perform linear regression on:

Y -3.51 -3.22 -3.91 -3.51

X 1.95 1.61 2.48 2.08

to get a = -1.96  A = 0.14

b = -0.78  c = 0.78

Q3:
a) (a  bX ) 1 1 Y  a  bX
Define Z  1 Y and apply linear regression to:

Z 0.286 0.154 0.250 0.455

X 30 10 50 70

to get a = 0.114 and b = 0.0043

Then, Y  (0114
.  0.0043X ) 1
Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

Y
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
X

b) Density of zone I  X I =7500/500=15 DUs/acre

Trip rate YI =5.6 trips/du
Productions PI =(7500)(5.6)=42,000 trips
Apply the gravity formula using the given data to find:
0.012( AL )
QIJ  42000   9,000 trips
0.012( AL )  0.044 AL
and
44
QIJ  42000   33,000 trips
56

Q
X
IX  42,000  PI
Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

Model Split Exercise

Q1. Given the utility equation

U K  a K  0.003 X 1  0.04 X 2
where X 1 is the travel cost in cents and X 2 is the travel time in minutes.

(a) Calculate the market shares of the following travel modes:

Mode K aK X1 X2
Automobile -0.20 120 30
Express Bus -0.40 60 45
Regular bus -0.60 30 55

(b) Estimated the effect that a 50% increase in the cost of all three modes will have on
modal split.

Q2. Given the utility expression

VK  AK  0.05Ta  0.04Tw  0.02Tr  0.01C
where Ta is the access time, Tw is the waiting time, Tr is the in-vehicle ride time, and C is
the out-of pocket cost.

(a) Apply the logit model to calculate the shares of the automobile mode  AK  0.005
and a mass-transit mode ( AK  0.05 ) if:

Mode Ta Tw Tr C
Auto 5 0 30 100
Transit 10 10 45 50

(b) Estimate the patronage shift that would result from doubling the bus out-of pocket
cost.
Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

Solution:

Q1:

a)

K VK eVK P k  %
Auto -1.76 0.1720 0.54 54
Express bus. -2.38 0.0926 0.29 29
Regular bus -2.89 0.0556 0.17 17
 1.00 100

b) The new value for X 1 will be 180,90, and 45 respectively:

K VK eVK PK %
Auto -1.940 0.1437 0.51 51
Express bus -2.470 0.0846 0.30 30
Regular bus -2.935 0.0531 0.19 19
 0.2814 1.00 100

A mild shift from the automobile to the transit modes is predicted.

Q2:

a)

K VK eVK PK
Auto -1.86 0.156 0.61
Transit -2.35 0.100 0.39
 0.256 1.00

b) With the transit cost at 100, the transit disutility becomes -2.85 and:

K VK eVK PK
Auto -1.86 0.156 0.73
Transit -2.35 0.058 0.27
 0.214 1.00

A significant percentage of bus riders is predicted to shift to the automobile. This

 
percentage equals 73  61 61  100  20%
Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

Traffic Assignment Exercise

Q1. Two highways connect an origin A and a destination B with flow-dependent linear cost
functions C1  f1   4  2 f1 , C2  f 2   4  4 f 2 (C in minutes and f in thousands of vehicles
per hour).

(1) Assume that the demand from the origin to destination is fixed to be 2.0, express the
objective function of the following mathematical program in terms of the flow and travel
time-flow relationships in a Figure:

min y  f    C1  w dw   C2  w dw

f1 f2

0 0

f1  f 2  2.0

Prove graphically that the minimum point of this mathematical program corresponds to a
user-equilibrium solution, indicate the equilibrium traffic flow and travel time on each
route.

(2) If the origin to destination demand is a function of travel cost and the demand function is
assumed to be fAB = 5 0.5CAB where fAB is the traffic demand from A to B (in thousands
of vehicles per hour) and CAB is the corresponding travel cost (in minutes). Find the
equilibrium origin to destination demand and travel cost, graphically and algebraically.

Q2. A highway network consisting of 4 nodes and 5 links is shown below. The cost of
transportation is also shown. A trip table showing the numbers of vehicles per hour wanting
to go from one node to another is also provided. Assign the trips to the network using the
all-or-nothing method (all travelers are assumed to take the shortest paths without
congestion). Find the total volume on each individual link (a,b,c,d,e).

a
1 2 Origin-Destination Trip Table
(4)
to node
b (3) 1 2 3 4
c d
(8) 1 é0 500 750 450 ù
(9) 2 êê0 0 650 400 úú
From node
3 ê0 0 0 450 ú
ê ú
3 e 4 ë0 0 0 0 û

(5) 4
( ) travel time
Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

Solutions

Q1
(1) Since y  f   f12  4 f1  2 f 22  4 f 2 , f 1  f 2  2.0 . Therefore we have

C1  f1   4  2 f1

C2  f 2   4  4  2  f1   12  4 f1

y  f   3 f12  8 f1  16

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 1 2 3 4

According to the above figure, we know that the minimum point of this mathematical
program corresponds to a user-equilibrium solution. The equilibrium link traffic flows are
1.33 and 0.67 respectively and equilibrium travel time is 6.66.

(2) Graphical method:

The demand function  10  2 f AB
From the figure, we can find the equilibrium origin to destination demand is 1.8 and
equilibrium travel cost is 6.4.

Analytical method:

since C1  4  2 f 1 , C2  4  4 f 2 , therefore,
C1 C
f1  f 2   2  1 1
2 4
According to Wardrop’s principle, C1  C2 . Hence
4
C AB  C1  C2   f1  f 2   4
3
Chapter 4 Transportation Planning (Exercise)

4 4
So supply function   f1  f 2   4  C AB  f AB  4
3 3
and the demand function  10  2 f AB  C AB
Therefore
4
f  4  10  2 f AB  f AB  18
.
3 AB
C AB  10  2 f AB  10  3.6  6.4

C2  4  4 f2
C1  4  2 f1

4
C AB  ( f1  f2 )  4
3

(1.8,6.4)

C AB  10  2 f AB
4

Q2:

The total volume on each link is: va  1700 , vb  0, vc  2250 , vd  0, ve  1300