The City of New Albany

Community Development Planning

99 West Main Street
P.O. Box 188
New Albany, Ohio 43054

RE: School Impact Analysis – Hamlet at Sugar Run

In connection with planning the development of the Hamlet at Sugar Run, we contracted an
independent, nationally recognized, third-party consulting firm, Future Think, Inc., to study
the potential impact of the proposed project on the student population of the New Albany
Plain City School District (NAPLSD). The firm is very familiar with New Albany and the
surrounding area and, in fact, consults for the NAPLSD and provides it with projections.

The consultant used an effective quantitative methodology to determine population load

factors for different housing types. The starting point for the study was the actual 2020
student population data for a specific designated area around the City of New Albany. The
data used to determine the student yields was sourced via the United States Census Bureau’s
Public Use Microdata Data (PUMS). Data was also extracted from the American Community
Survey’s (ACS) 5-year Estimates for 2016-2020 (2020) datasets. For all data, multiple
variables were studied, including when structures were built, actual enrollment, grade levels,
and the dates individuals moved into residences. Based on this effort, they have provided an
actual real-life student yield projection for the community, eliminating any guesswork.
Below is the actual number of students generated by a single unit of each housing type within
the New Albany vicinity, generally covering the northeastern portions of Central Ohio.

Flats 0.102
Townhomes 0.146
Single Family Homes 0.499
Total

Based on these yield factors, our proposed submission could generate approximately 37
students.

If we utilize the load factors that were shared in the fall of 2021 based on more regional and
national (rather than local) ratios and trends, our submission could yield up to 52 students.
This increase in numbers is the result of a higher ratio of student generation coming from
single family and townhome residences outside of the New Albany area.

Therefore, it is projected that the proposed zoning could generate between 37 and 52 students.
The property is currently zoned R-1, allowing one residential unit per 40,000 square feet of lot
area. With 32.6 acres included in the site, the current zoning would allow 35 homes (32.6
acres x 43,560 square feet/acre = 1,420,056 total square feet on the site; 1,420,056 SF divided
by 40,000 Sf = 35 units). Based on Future Think’s analysis establishing a 0.499 yield factor

STEINER + ASSOCIATES 4016 TOWNSFAIR WAY, SUITE 201 ◦ COLUMBUS, OHIO 43219 | F 614.414.7311 | P 614.414.7300 | WWW.STEINER.COM
for single family homes, the current zoning would generate 17.5 students. A more
conservative yield factor of 0.8 students per single family home would equate to 28 students.
Therefore, the proposed hamlet development will result in a net increase of 20 to 24 students
compared to the current zoning of the property. However, the improved value of the site
under the proposed plan will be significantly higher than if developed only with single-family
homes, yielding a substantial positive financial impact on the NAPLSD.

Thanks.

Justin Leyda
Chief Development Strategist
 September 2, 2022

The City of New Albany

Community Development Planning
99 West Main Street
P.O. Box 188
New Albany, Ohio 43054

RE: School Impact Analysis – Hamlet at Sugar Run

To determine the potential number of students based on new housing, FutureThink looked at a
variety of data: national and state averages, housing developments in the Central Ohio area,
and housing developments in the New Albany-Plain Local School District.
Additionally, we accessed data via the the United States Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata
Sample (PUMS) for the New Albany area in northeastern Central Ohio (see attached map). Data
was extracted from the American Community Survey’s (ACS) 5-Year Estimates for 2016-2020
(2020) datasets.
The ratio table is a cross-tabulation of six variables:
• BLD (Units in Structure)
• YBL ([Year] when structure first built)
• TEN (Tenure)
• MV ([Year] when moved into this house or apartment)
• SCH (Public School enrollment)
• SCHG (Grade level attending).

The data was further paired down by cross-tabulating it with the SCHG data, resulting in
enrollment data for K-12, excluding preschool and college students.
Housing Type Load Factor Steiner Revised Plan Number of Students
Flats 0.102 40 4
Townhomes 0.146 116 17
Single Family Homes 0.499 32 16
Total 188 37

We appreciate the opportunity to serve the New Albany community.

Sincerely,

Tracy V. Healy
Owner/President

5685 Tynecastle Loop 614-264-2638

Dublin, OH 43016 www.futurethinkinc.com
 Columbus Far Northeast Gahanna & New Albany

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