Summer Course of Road Infrastructure Asset Management

Kyoto University, JAPAN – UTC, VIETNAM

Contents
Part 1: Overview of HDM-4
Part 2: Application of HDM-4 in Vietnam
HDM-4 Application for Management &
Part 3: Pitfalls of HDM-4 Strategy Analysis
Maintenance of Road Networks in - Planning Period & Analysis Period
Vietnam: Current & Future Directions - Expenditure in Later Years of Planning Period
- Spreading
S di L Lumping
i Investments
I t t over Planning
Pl i Period
P i d

Part 4: Pitfalls of HDM-4 Project Analysis

- Optimization of Maintenance Option
Lectured by Dinh Van HIEP - Optimal Maintenance Strategies
Dept. of Highway & Traffic Engineering Part 5: Future Directions of Using HDM-4 in Vietnam
- HDM-4 Calibration
- Data Collection and Management
1 2

What is HDM-4?
Part I. Overview of HDM-4 The Highway Development and Management System
(HDM-4), developed by the World Bank and other
international organizations, is a decision-support
tool to investigate road investment alternatives, such
as to find “optimal” maintenance options

3 4
(1) http://hdm4.piarc.org (2) http://civ-hrg.bham.ac.uk/isohdm/

Levels of HDM Technology HDM--4 System Architecture

HDM
Data Managers Analysis Tools
Knowledge Base
Vol. 1: Overview of HDM-4
Vol. 2: Technical User Guide Road Vehicle Road HDM Project Program Strategy
Vol. 3: Software User Guide Network Fleet Works Config.
Vol. 4: Applications Guide
Vol. 5: Calibration Guide
Vol. 6: Road Deterioration and
Works Effects Core Data Model libraries
File Converter Models
Vehicle Fleets can be
b used d iin
Vol. 7: Road User Effects
Road Networks other systems
Vol. 8: Programmers Guide
transfer data Road Works
to external Projects
systems
y Programmes RDWE RUE SEE
Strategies
Models
Software
Models RDWE : Road Deterioration and Works Effects
External
Systems RUE : Road User Effects
Databases, SEE : Safety, Energy and Environmental Effects
RDWE RUE SEE 5 PMS, etc. 6
PMS : Pavement Management System

1
 The HDM Predecessors HDM-4 Product Releases
Highway Cost Model 1971 • Version 1.0 released February 2000
• HDM Series Volumes 1 - 5
RTIM 1977 • HDM-4 software
• Case studies database
HDM 1979 • English, French & Russian editions
RTIM2 1982 • Version 1.1 update August 2000
RTIM2 PC version 1985 • major
j software
ft maintenance
i t release
l - error fixes
fi
HDM-III 1987 • Version 1.2 update April 2001
• major software maintenance and enhancement release
HDM-III PC version 1989
RTIM3 spreadsheet 1995 • Version 1.3 update 2002
• major software maintenance and enhancement release
HDM-Q 1994 • Version 2.0 – 2005
HDM Manager 1994 • At present: Version 2.03
• HDM Series Volumes 1 - 8
7 8

Where is HDM-4 Software Registered? Why HDM-4 is used widely?

Involving of The use of the
agency costs & calibration factors
user costs in -> use in diverse
a LCCA conditions

Over 100 countries

A wide range of The use as an
pavements and appropriate design tool
conditions of use for pavements
Distribution of Regional Interests Distribution of Industry Sector Interests (Prof. Tsunokawa & Ul-Islam, 2003)

9 10

Which purpose HDM-4 is used for?

INPUTS OUTPUTS

Long-term
Road Inventory
Strategic
Road Plan
Road Condition
Single,
Multi-year
Traffic Data Work Program
Supporting Road
Project Level Investment Decisions
Maint. options Appraisal

Policies
Social & Eco.
& Standards
11 12
Conditions
Research

2
 HDM-4 Applications Levels of HDM-4 Applications
• Strategy Analysisfor analysis the entire road
Management Function HDM-4 Application
networks for estimating medium- and long-term
Planning Strategy Analysis budget requirements,

Programming Programme Analysis • Programme Analysisdeals with the

prioritization
i iti ti off a defined
d fi d llong lilistt
Preparation Project Analysis [subnetwork] to find a list of road section for
single or multi-year work programe under
Operations -- budget constrain
Research all
• Project Analysisconsiders individual projects
to find the optimal investment options
13 14

HDM-- 4 in the Decision Framew ork

HDM
Road Asset Data Decision Support Tools Reporting Tools Investment Studies
Part 2. Application of HDM-4 in Vietnam
location reference
inventory Asset reports
• tabular
condition • distance charts
traffic • time charts Policy
• summary graphs studies
• maps
Strategic Network
financial data strategies
analysis
y Investment
geospatial data Policy research Analysis reports Research
Data Access

• summary Studies
• detail
planning data • graphical Works
Works • map-based
network policies programs
Programming
works standards
Custom queries
Project Project
model default data Evaluation evaluations
Performance
model calibration
reports
• asset state Asset
Network • financial performance
investment Performance • user impact feedback
study results Analysis • value for money
16
15

Potential in Using with Existing Systems in VN

Application of HDM-4 in Vietnam
• Highway Management Capacity Improvement Project
– HCMP (2002)->potential in using HDM-4 in Vietnam

• Third Road Improvement Project - Implementation of

Sector Development Policy (ISDP_2005)-> for Road
Information Management System (RIMS)

• Road Network Improvement Project (RNIP) (2004)->

for 10- Year Strategic Plan for National Road Network
in Vietnam

• Annual Work Program 2 and 3 (2006)-> for

prioritization of road network for work program of 2006
and 2007
17 18
Adapt ed from HCMP ( 2002)

3
 Road Network National Road Network Condition
Improvement
Project -RNIP (2004)
10 Year Strategic
Plan for National
Road Network in
Vietnam

Scenarios Optimum Constant Current Budget

Scenario Roughness (VRA alt.)
Annual Budget
(US$mil. )
90.813 62.591 39.488
19 20

RNIP-- Annual Work Program 2 and 3

RNIP
Part 3. Pitfalls of HDM-4 Strategy
Analysis

X Analysis Period versus Planning Period

X Expenditure in Later Years of Planning

Period

X Spreading Lumping Investments over

Planning Period
• For prioritization of road network for work program of 2006 and 2007: this
list shall be handed to the supervision consultant (BCEOM) for detailed
surveys of road conditions (Viziroad) and traffic volume (Motion-in-weight)
in order to identify specific maintenance treatments and contract packages. 22
21

Planning Period and Analysis Period Average road condition of the network for 10 years

Planning
6.5 Period
6

̈
5.5
HDM-4 does not take into account network
5
I I

condition at the end of the Analysis Period and as a 4.5

4
result it suggests investment patterns with no or 3.5
Analysis period:20 years
3
fewer investments at the end of the Analysis Period Analysis period:15 years
Analysis period:10 years
2.5
2
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

Tim e (year)

Using different analysis periods

23 24

4
 Expenditure in Later Years of 10 year- Planning Period and Analysis Period
Planning Period
8

7 20 years analysis period

̈
15 years analysis period
6 Use of an Analysis Period same as the Planning Period will
10 years analysis period
5
underestimate the Expenditure Requirements as shown in
4

3
the next figure
2
a

1
A

0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012
a
25 26

Analysis Period versus Planning Period Expenditure in Later Years of Planning Period
8
50
7 20 years analysis period
15 years analysis period
6
10-Year Expenditurre (mil. USD)

40 10 years analysis period

5

4
30
3

2
a

20
1
A

0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012
10
10 15 20 25
Analysis Period (Years) a
27 28

Remedies Spreading Lumping Investments over Planning Period

̈ When Budgets are unconstrained, HDM-4 may suggest Investment

Patterns with several Maintenance Works schedule in the first few

̈ HDM-4 Analysis Period must be longer than the years
Planning Period ̈ The Strategic Plan must have more or less Uniform expenditure

over the Planning Period and it may be done as follows

̈ Find the unconstrained optimum expenditure for the entire Planning

̈ Analysis Period twice as Long as the Planning
Period
Period may be appropriate ̈ Impose a Budget Constraint that equals the Total Expenditure found

above divided by the Number of Years in the Planning Period for each

year of the Planning Period with a large budget for the rest of the

Analysis Period

29 30

5
Spreading Lumping Investments over Planning Period

Part 4. Pitfalls of HDM-4 Project

20.00
ure (million USD)

17.50
Unconstrained optimum Analysis
Optimum with uniform expenditure
15.00

X Optimization of Maintenance Option

12.50
Capital Expenditu

10.00

X Investigation of Optimal Maintenance

7.50
5.00
2.50
Strategies Analysis
0.00
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013
Time (year)
31 32

What is the Problem? Combinations of Maintenance Options

Can
Maintenance NO! It is sub-optimal Is it W different The number of possible we
Option 1 option TRUE intensities; options from which the true
solve
? w1, w2,…, wk optimizer must be found
it?

∑W
Maintenance What-if models of T −1
Optimal
p k
Option 2 pavementt managementt att different
diff t Ck
T
k =0
analysis (RTIM,
Maintenance
HERS & HDM-4) Option timings; ?
t1, t2,…, tk
Maintenance
Option 3 X What-if models predict the “optimal” maintenance
options by comparing a small number of alternatives with k no. of
specified from outside the models by users. The number becomes
maint. works in a
X Since there is a huge number of possible options, it
infinity if no
is impossible to consider and exhaust all of them and
predefined analysis discreteness is
only sub-optimal options are found.
33 period, T assumed 34

New Approach to HDM-4 Optimization Global and Local Optima

X All GM’s almost always find
Global
Maximum
local minima or maxima for
Local
basin of starting point.
Maximum
Using HDM-4 (a what-if model) along X If the objective function is not
with
i h gradient
di searchh methods
h d (GM) ffor well-shaped, it can be trapped in
local optima. Unless good
finding the “true” optimal starting
maintenance option points are known, the procedure
must be applied with a wide range
of
starting points

35 Global Minimum
36

6
 Feasibility
of the use HDM-4 with GM to find Our research shows that:
the true optimal maint. option

X The proposed methodology using GM with

YES! YES! HDM-4 was operable.
Operability Reliability

XThe GM was free from being trapped in local

off the
th use HDM-4
HDM 4 of the use HDM
HDM-44
along with GM ? along with GM ?
X GM’s are used to optimize optima and reliable.
a function of several X Is it possible to obtain
continuous variables over a global optima?

XGM’s are known to be

given domain.

X While options to be tested trapped in local optima if

with HDM-4 are largely objective functions are not
defined by discrete well-shaped 37 38
variables

Definition of OMS
Investigation of
XOptima maintenance strategy is
Optimal Maintenance Strategies
defined as sets of optimal maintenance
X Propose
options corresponding to different levels of
P a systematic
t ti approach
h traffic loadings and various pavement
to investigation of optimal surface conditions
maintenance strategies (OMS) for
bituminous pavements in Vietnam:
Using HDM-4 combined with GM’s å Minimize Total Transport Costs to
society
39 40

Pavement Conditions over 20 Years

High Traffic, AADT = 10000
vpd

Re c. 5 0 I I= I I= I I=
Results of Investigation Re c. 5 0
I I=
I I=
I I=
I I=
I I=
I I=

OV L 7 0

X Pavement conditions over 20 years

I I

OV L 7 0

OV L 6 0

of high, medium and low traffic roads OV L 6 0

XSummary of suitable maintenance

a

OV L 3 0
I

OV L 3 0 OV L 3 0 OV L 3 0

OV L 3 0
works
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

41 42
a

7
 Pavement Conditions over 20 Years Pavement Conditions over 20 Years
Medium Traffic, AADT = 4000
vpd Low Traffic, AADT =1000 vpd

Re c. D BST I I= I I= I I= I I= I I= I I=
Re c. D BST I I= I I= I I=
I I= I I= I I=
Re c. D BST I I= I I= I I= I I= I I= I I=
Re c. D BST

Re c. D BST Re c. D BST
Re c. D BST

I I
I I

Re c. D BST
Re c.
c D BST
Ovl - 4 0
Re c. D BST
Ovl. 4 0

a
a

Ovl. 3 0
Ovl. 3 0

I
I

Ovl. 3 0 Ovl. 3 0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023
43 44
a a

Suitable Maintenance Works

(Corresponding to traffic levels and initial pavement conditions) Recommendation from Investigation

X Suitable maintenance works should be applied

Initial Pav. Traffic Level & Existing Pavement Type
Condition
Cond IRI Low Traffic & SBSD Medium Traffic & SBSD High Traffic &
corresponding to the traffic levels and initial pavement
conditions
X Thin overlay 30 mm along with routine maintenance
i- (1000 vpd) (4000 vpd) HRA
tion (10000 vpd)
Good 2 Routine Maintenance were much more effectively for high and medium traffic
3 roads to maintain pavements at good condition,
condition while

maintaining low traffic roads when IRI ≤ 7.

Fair 4 Overlay 30 mm DBST with routine maintenance were advisable for
5 Routine Overlay 50 mm
Maintenance Overlay 40 mm
Poor 6 Overlay 60 mm
7 Overlay 70 mm
The findings may help highway agencies in better
Very 8
applying the right maintenance work at the right time
poor 9 Reconstruction with DBST Reconstruction with based on the condition survey, and thus result in savings
50 mm-AC
10
45
with regard to the total transport costs to the society. 46

Part 5. Future Directions of Using

HDM-4 in Vietnam HDM-4 Calibration

X HDM-4 Model Calibration

X Data Collection and Management

Models
Models

RDWERUE SEE

47 48

8
 HDM--4 System Architecture
HDM Models in HDM
HDM--4
Data Managers Analysis Tools • Road Deterioration &
̈ Road User Effect s
Works Effects Models
Project Program Strategy (RDWE): comprised of the Models ( RUE) :
Road Vehicle Road HDM
Network Fleet Works Config. deterioration of the pavement, com prised of vehicle
the impact of maintenance operat ing cost s, t ravel
activities on the pavement t im e, safet y, and em ission.
Core Data Model libraries condition, and the future rate of
File Converter Models pavement deterioration
Vehicle Fleets can be
b used d iin
Road Networks other systems
transfer data Road Works These models were established mainly based on the
to external Projects studies in Kenya, the Caribbean, India, and Brazil
systems
y Programmes RDWE RUE SEE
Strategies

RDWE : Road Deterioration and Works Effects It is necessary to Calibrate the models according to the
External
Systems RUE : Road User Effects local conditions in order to apply HDM-4 correctly
Databases, SEE : Safety, Energy and Environmental Effects
PMS, etc. 49
PMS : Pavement Management System 50

Fuel Consumption Models (Japan)

Calibration Levels 14

X Le ve l 1 : Ba sic Applica t ion

HDM
12 ＭＲＩ
10
Fue l(Ye n/km)

X Addresses m ost crit ical param et ers

8

X ‘Desk St udy’
6

X Le ve l 2 : Ca libr a t ion
4
2

X Measures key param et ers

0

X Conduct s lim it ed field surveys

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

X Le ve l 3 : Ada pt a t ion
Speed(km/h)

X Maj or field surveys t o requant ify

HDM- 4 vs Observat ion for HDM-4 vs Observation for fuel ( Okubo
m edium car ( Ul- I slam et al., 2003) et al., 2003)

relat ionships
X Long
Long-- t erm m onit oring - Show a significant difference between the results predicted by
HDM_RUE model and those obtained from actual observation, but high
51 flexibility and calibration capacity of RUE model adapted in HDM-4.52

Road User Effects Calibration Fuel Consumption Models

(Canada &Chile)

X Therefore, RUE model is also desirable to be

calibrated into local conditions, especially in
Vietnam, due to the significant differences in
Vietnam
traffic, economic, and environmental conditions
from those obtained in specific regions to
establish predictive relationships of the model.

Observed Fuel Consum pt ion versus Est im at ed Fuel Consum pt ion

of Calibrat ed HDM- 4 ( Canada & Chile) Alt am ira et . Al ( 2004)
53 54

9
Can We Believe HDM-
HDM-4 Output? Calibration into Local Condition

Table 3. Roughness Environmental Deterioration

Ü Yes, when calibrat ed properly Tropical Subtropical Hot Subtropical Cool

m Kge m Kge m Kge

Ü If predict ions are unexpect ed, Semi-Arid 0.01 0.391 0.016 0.626 0.035 1.369
review ( a) dat a, ( b) calibrat ion, Sub-humid 0.02 0.782 0.025 0.978 0.06 2.347

( c) your j udgem ent ! Humid 0.025 0.978 0.03 1.173 1 39.130

Perhumid 0.03 1.173 0.04 1.565

55 56

Calibration into Local Condition Other Calibration in Vietnam

Table 4. Cracking Initiation Adjustment and Cracking Progression

̈
Adjustment Factors
Climate Characteristics Cracking Initiation Cracking Progression
Unit cost
Adjustment Factor, Adjustment Factor, ̈ Fleet Charact erist ic
Kci Kcp =1/Kci
̈ VOC
Medium Oxidizing 1.0 1.0
Climate
Low Oxidizing Climate 1.1 0.9

57 58

For Further Information

̈ A guide to Data Collection and Management

calibration and
adaptation
̈ Reports on
various HDM
calibrations from:
www.htc.co.nz

ROad Measurem ent Dat a Acquisit ion Syst em ( ROMDAS) :

59 RRM U2 ; RRM U4 ; RRM U5 ; RRM U7 a n d VRA 60

10
 Data Collection System Data Collection and Management
̈ In Vietnam, the current maintenance practice system
relies mainly on subjective ratings of pavement
condition,

̈
pavement distresses for analysis å Automatic
HDM-4 needs a great deal of quantitative data on
HDM-
equipment: to measure road conditions ( ROMDAS,
Viziroad, ARAN).

̈ Systematic collection and management of data may

VIZIROAD: Road Survey Inspection
Visuelle. Having been used for Road
Network Maintenance of Vietnam by
BCEOM for Annual Work Program
2005. 2006. 2007.
ARAN: Roadware's Automatic Road
Analyzer, used broadly in Canada
61
and United States
help highway agencies in better establishing the
strategies to calibrate
calibrate,, verify
verify,, and update the HDM-
HDM-
4 models according to the Vietnamese conditions.
62

Data Preparation Process for HDM-4 analysis Data Collection for HDM
HDM--4 Historic Calibration Process

63 64

Adapt ed from HCMP ( 2002) Adapt ed from HCMP ( 2002)

Main References
Conclusions Đinh Văn Hiệp & GS. Tsunokawa. Chiến lược tối ưu cho công tác bảo trì và
̈ HDM--4 is a state of the art system for the analysis
HDM cải tạo mặt đường nhựa trong điều kiện Việt Nam: Khảo sát sử dụng mô hình
HDM-4 kết hợp phương pháp đường dốc. Tạp chí Giao thông Vận tải, số
of road management and investment alternatives 9&10/2006.
with broad
broad--based applicability in diverse climates
and conditions. Đinh Văn Hiệp. Phương pháp ưu tiên hoá trong phân tích chiến lược và
chương trình xây lắp sử dụng mô hình HDM-4. Tạp chí Cầu Đường Việt
Nam, số 8/2006, trang 16-22.
̈ To apply HDM-
HDM-4 effectively: Đinh Văn Hiệp. Các chú ý khi ứng dụng mô hình HDM-4 trong công tác quản
ầ Đường Việt Nam,
lý và bảo trì mạng lưới đường bộ Việt Nam. Tạp chí Cầu
số 7/2006, trang 23-29.
• Collect and manage road data systematically and
continuously Đinh Văn Hiệp & K. Tsunokawa. Suitable Maintenance Strategies: A Case
Study for Bituminous Pavements in Vietnam Using HDM-4 with Gradient
Methods. International Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for
• Adjust model parameters to enhance the accuracy of its Transportation Studies, Asia, Vol.6, 2005, pp.1123-1136.
representation of local conditions, and
Tsunokawa K., Đinh Văn Hiệp, and R. Ul-Islam. True Optimization of
Pavement Maintenance Options Using HDM-4, A What-If Model,
• Use the models in proper ways:
ways: Understand pitfalls and International Journal of Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure
remedies 65 Engineering, USA, 21, 2006, pp. 193-204. 66

11