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HUL Equity Research Report Final
HUL Equity Research Report Final
HUL Equity Research Report Final
UNILEVER
LIMITED
APO group 6
Distribution Technology
The company’s Shikhar app for instance reported 6 lakh retailers (10% of pre pandemic sales) as of Sep’21. The data
made available through the app can also help the company to understand product demand better and provide insights
on what to distribute where. Moreover, the company in its Q3’FY22 earnings call mentioned that there has been a
rise in PE backed start-ups that buy in bulk and pay immediately, as compared to traditional retailers who take a
10–15-day
Brand Power
On pricing the company has shown its brand power in its ability to absorb the price hikes and ability to grow ahead
of market. Further the company’s diverse product portfolio ensures if any price hike switch happens, the consumers
remain within the HUL brand of products. Thus, the economical product is pushed more to compensate. Further,
HUL entered the ‘naturals’ category, calling it a ‘mega trend’. Recent hike in commodity prices (specially palm oil)
don’t seem to be a major concern for the company in the long run. While margins are expected to be squeezed in the
short run, the company has shown its ability to maintain hike prices and maintain gross profit levels with its brand
power over the long term.
Post-Covid Growth
The company is expected to gain from the recovery in post Covid-demand specially on discretionary and out of home
spends, certain items took a hit as school children were not stepping out. The sales and supply chain disruptions have
hit the company which is expected to grow back in the post covid era when demand from consumer side will increase
and supply chain will restore thereby creating easy movement of goods to different parts of the country as well
thereby gaining them presence across different parts of the country.
GSK Acquisition
With the acquisition of GSK, the company has forayed into the foods and refreshment (F&R) category. Acquisition
of brands such as ‘Horlicks’ and ‘Boost’ will help HUL grow its own F&R segment which has been growing at a
11% CAGR over the last two years. The growth can be achieved by leveraging the trend around health and wellness
currently prevailing in the country. The health nutrition market in India is quite under penetrated thereby HUL can
use this opportunity to grow itself in the country by the following acquisition and growing it with the reach and
capabilities which it possesses. The following deal provided HUL leverage in the nutrition category and not only in
India, but HUL acquired the right in other 20 Asian Markets as well. The GSK acquisition was a strategic fit as the
current Unilever portfolio tends to revolve around beauty and cosmetic products to food and Refreshment Items.
2. Key Risks
Forex Risk: The depreciation in INR might impact raw material prices. A high price for the raw material would
indirectly increase the cost of goods and increasing inflationary pressure would increase the overall cost of goods
sold.
A higher price will affect their profits margins but considering the market share they hold and the pricing power
which they posses is something that helps them to transfer these increased prices to their customers, but the company
might take the hit in the rural areas where the competition is quite high, and replacement is easy to find hence to
maintain the competition in rural areas the prices need to be kept in check.
Inflation: Ocean freight increased 3X in the December quarter, crude, and other oil derivatives such as palm oil has
increased over 1.5x in the Dec quarter. Prices have been exasperated by the recent Russian-Ukraine crisis leading to
an increase in operational challenges. Due to this Company is also struggling to import the raw material which is
requires to manufacture different products specially around the cosmetics and Refreshment items.
Marketing Spend and Competition: Ad spends are likely to increase with rising competition from regional
companies. Advertisement plays a significant role in brand recognition. To increase their presence in the market HUL
spends huge amount on advertisement.
Competition in the FMCG sector has been rising and every other company is marketing tactics to foster the market
share. Therefore, advertisement and marketing cost is something that is possessing a key risk considering the increase
in raw material prices and inflationary economic prices in the country.
Price wars: One of the key risks which HUL faces is the price war happening in FMCG sector. The red space area
houses multiple other different players thereby giving rise to the intense competition. Price reduction is the easiest
way to make way through this intense competition. With recession and inflationary pressures have created a havoc
in the Economy. Big Retailers including those of Big-Bazaars have negotiated with these FMCG companies to keep
the products prices less therefore HUL needs to give high margins to these big retailers.
Customer changing preferences: Over the course of time specially after the covid pandemic there can be
observed a paradigm shift in taste and preferences of Consumers. There exists a need for constant innovation strategy
in order to stay updated with the customers needs and preference which have now become more health conscious.
People will prefer more healthy products post pandemic over traditional food items.
3. Valuation Metrics
Football
Field Chart Min Difference Max
Football Field
52W High-
Low 1,901 958 2,859
P/B 2,836 3,466
Discounted
P/S 1,936 2,366
Cash Flow 1,499 333 1,832
P/E 1,902 2,325
EV/EBITDA 1,842 2,251 EV/Sales 2,904 645 3,549
EV/Sales 2,904 3,549 EV/EBITDA 1,842 409 2,251
Discounted Cash Flow 1,499 1,832 P/E 1,902 423 2,325
52W High-Low 1,901 2,859
P/S 1,936 430 2,366
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 P/B 2,836 630 3,466
Projected Financials
(Figures in INR Cr)
Income Statement
Expenses
Cost of Materials Consumed 16,232 17,960 17,793 21,677 24,792 26,871 30,902
Employee Benefit Expenses 1,745 1,747 1,691 2,229 2,277 2,516 2,893
Other Expenses 9,272 9,880 9,701 10,766 11,417 12,420 13,729
Total Expenses 27,249 29,587 29,185 34,672 38,485 41,807 47,524
From the Income statement shown above it can be seen that the Total Income over the past 4 years have been increasing
and even during the pandemic the firm reported positive cash flows. The income from Operations have been growing
and the share of other income has seen dip which is a healthy sign as the income from operations have grown to quite
a significant extent and same can be attributed in future but with a slightly large share of other income as well. In the
similar lines the expenses have also grown to quite a significant number considering the increase in input cost, increase
in raw material prices and inflationary pressure prevailing in the market.
PAT has been significantly improved in last 2years where the company net income for FY21 was 8181Crore while
the Taxed paid increased very marginally when compared to its Net Income which shows the operational efficiency
and the sales volume of the company where it has significantly improved its position.
The main changes in the Balance sheet can be seen in the year 2021 when the company reached its pre pandemic levels
and has been consistently working to improve itself. The recent happening in the company including that of Business
re-structuring in HUL is something that will help them to counter the current economic scenario in the current time.
Not only this the since FMCG is a red zone area which is heavily competitive so the company by leveraging its supply
chain and the product portfolio which company has developed over the years is something which is helping them to
withstand the competition. The product portfolio and the business diversification are fostering its growth rate in the
country. The future seems legitimate, and assumptions have been made based on such understanding of HUL business
and its current Business restructuring.
Balance Sheet
From the above Balance Sheet Total Equity of the company has grown almost twice in year 2021 when compared to FY20 to
FY21. Total Non-Current Liabilities have also increased over the years specially during the March-21 and it is expected to grow
over the next few years. Current Liabilities have also marginally increased over the years. As a consolidated numbers the Total
Equity and Liability for March-21 stood at 68116 when compared to Marc-20. The Number of total assets has also grown
exponentially in last 1 year where the company’s total assets jumped from 19602 to 68116 in year 2021 and further down the line
same levels of assets are expected to grow.
Cash Flow Statement
Outflow
Dividend 6,949 8,860 10,540
Repayments of Long Term Borrowings
Capex 648 733 843
Investment in Joint Ventures - - -
Financial Assets (10) (10) (10)
Other Non-Current Assets 663 884 1,177
Current Investments (55) (54) (53)
Inventories 187 255 466
Trade Receivables 154 234 305
Other Current Assets 258 299 347
TOTAL OUTFLOW 8,794 11,200 13,616
NET CASH MOVEMENT 1 1,458 2,018
21.1% 22.6%
EBITDA Margins
25.0%
60,000
20.0%
40,000 15.0%
10.0%
20,000
5.0%
- 0.0%
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24
From the Graph above we can see the increase in all the three parameters which include EBITDA, EBITDA margin
and Revenue. Every year the company is able to grow up its revenue by almost 20% and same can be attributed to
EBITDA margin standing at 20% across three years and with this level of business activities it is expected that the
company will be able to grow it revenue along the same line while maintain a healthy cash flow thereby improving the
financial stability of the company and increasing the market share as well.
4. Ratio Analysis
When we Talk about the key ratios it can categorized under the following:
1. Profitability Ratios
2. Leverage and Coverage Ratio
3.Liquidity Ratio
4.Return and shareholder Ratios
1. Profitability Ratio
When we Discuss about Profitability ratio there can be seen a positive trend in increase in both EBITDA and PAT
Margins. During the Pandemic when other FMCG companies were taking a hit it was HUL which saw the growth
rate in the industry which clearly showcase their domination in the market and how much the company has leveraged
its supply chain to across India and reaching the masses including rural areas. EBITDA margins have always been
constantly growing as seen from the past Data and considering the economic situation same can be attributed for
Future growth as well where the similar healthy EBITDA margins can be maintained.
PAT Margins have also worked out in a positive margin where the margins are continuously improving over the last
3 years. Although very marginal increase in the PAT can be seen in FY 20-21 considering the Economic Situation in
India.
Debt/Equity ratio has been significantly decreasing over the years which not only shows the company is highly liquid
but also show how effectively company is managing its cash and the cash in hand can be used in other different
operations of the company thereby helping them to increase its product line and working towards increasing the
customer satisfaction. The company considering its market cap can almost be considered Debt Free. The same can be
expected in future as well the company has marginal debt with it which revolve around mere 0.08 to max 0.11.
Interest Service Converge ratio determines the ability of the company to pay off its interest as against its outstanding
Debt. From the table above it can be seen that HUL dropped to quite a extend considering the volatility in the market
during the pandemic and the low sales attributed to the decrease in the numbers. It picked up again during the next
year where the economy started opening and sales were back on track hence the values bounced back. With strong
sales and strong distribution network the company has maintained a healthy track record of ISC ratio which can be
followed in future as well.
3. Liquidity and Turnover Ratio
As far as HUL is concerned the company’s current ratio have been increasing since last two years but slightly twisted
in the year 2020 and 21 and same can be expected for the next three years where the current ratio can revolve around
1.20. Any current ratio above 1 can be considered a healthy number. HUL maintains a very healthy figure and same
can be attributed for future as well.
Companies Inventory Days have almost remained same over the last 3 years which shows the number of days the
inventory has been kept before actually sold. For HUL the number are decent which reflects the demand of their
products and how they dominate the FMCG sector.
ROE took a hit in the year 2021 and last 2years the ROE was around 80% but it dropped to 17.2% and further same
can be attributed for the next few forecasted years specially for next 3 years.
EPS on the other hand has grown significantly considering the amount of earning the company possess therefore EPS
is expected to grow and for the near future as well the company is most likely to maintain a healthy EPS.
For the Future Growth Perspective HUL maintains a very Healthy Growth aspects and recently company is
also going through restricting Process and is redesigning the way it does Business in India. Various acquitsions
have helped company to gain the strategic mover’s advantage thereby letting them gain a significant market
share in India and they possess high Price Power where HUL can directly transfer the impact of high prices to
its customers and People will buy still buy their products.
5. GRPV Analysis
According to GPRV Analysis HUL lies in the High profitability where it includes EBIT margin, High ROCE
with Low Beta and with high Market share and Cap. Company is almost Debt Free with just marginal Debt
and it is something which company need not to worry about therefore company can leverage this opportunity
to grow exponentially and company possess high growth and profitability.
6. Company Analysis
Company Background
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) is India's largest FMCG company and leader in household and personal care products and
food and beverages. The HUL brand, which spans over 20 different consumer categories, impacts the lives of two in
three Indians. HUL's portfolio of products covers a broad spectrum, including soaps, detergents, skin creams,
shampoos, toothpaste, tea, coffee, packaged foods, and branded atta.
Advertising investment
To preserve the health of the brand and consumer franchise, HUL is investing in advertising. The intensity of
advertising has been good in the 3rd quarter of FY22.
HUL is the number 1 FMCG company in India with revenue at the Annual CAGR rate of 10% for last 3 years.
Company ranks number 1 in Skin care, skin care and ranks number 2 in oral care and ranked 3 in de-odorants.
Company has been maintaing a portfolio of diversified business. 85-90% of the company’s portfolio falls under
category of essentials items and therefore it can be said that the company is playing safer bet compared to its peer.
Even during the lockdown, the company with high market share and with increased focus and reach HUL is expected
to outperform in the near future while maintaining healthy growth rate and increasing the market share as well in the
near future as against its competitors.
HUL leverages its supply chain management and has the distribution network spread across India while partnering
with 10million and a direct distribution of approximately 5million retail outlets. HUL in the near future will definitely
gain strategic advantage due to its huge distribution Network. Company is expected to leverage its growth from small
retail players by providing them better credit options for distributors. A distribution network will help the company to
deliver the goods even to the small retail outlets because the rural areas are still penetrated which can be captured with
the credit strategy and thereby gaining market share in those areas.
HUL has been leveraging the growth over the last few years using the M&A route and therefore expanding into the
news product categories by leveraging the huge, distributed network. The latest merger which company did was with
the consumer business of GSK which came into effect in April 2020. In the same year the company VWash which
was a market leader in female intimate category which remains underpenetrated. Same in other different way company
has acquired different companies working in different sector to establish their presence in that sector and leverage the
penetrated market and become a market leader. Over the last 11 years company did 11 Acquisitions in which latest
one came into Picture in the year 2020 April.
New Trade Trends
With Everything going Digital most of the people prefer buying things online specially from online shopping. This
segment has registered tremendous growth over the last few years and there can be observed paradigm shift in the
taste and preference of the people and the change in shopping patterns. With the Digital trends HUL also launched
humarashop.com website for selling grocery. The company tried to tie up with different Kirana stores to reach out to
the customers directly. With online usage of Data the company can actually collect a lot of data from its customers and
it has been doing since last 5years, With so much of data it becomes easy to predict, capture and most importantly
fulfil the need of the customer by using advance methods including AI/ML to make better predictive models, Other
aspects of going digital includes initiatives like “ Shikar” and “Samadhan”, the apps specifically designed for retailers
for direct ordering and fulfilment. Such technological Advancements and innovative strategies will be beneficial for
HUL in the near future, and it has been doing so in past as well thereby benefiting from these technologies
7. Industry analysis
The Indian FMCG industry is the 4th largest sector, with the urban segment sharing 55% of revenue. According to
Nielsen, the industry rose 9.4% in Q3 FY21, supported by the price of the commodities. It is expected to grow at
14.9%, reaching 220 billion USD in three years. There was a 10% YoY in Jan 2022 in revenues.
Trends:
There is a significant uptick in the omnichannel strategy appraised by various industry stalwarts. The e-commerce
segment is expected to contribute 11% of the overall revenue by FY30. The F&B is one of the largest contributors with
30% of total household spending on this segment.
Growth Drivers:
A significant uptick in revenues from the urban markets is backed mainly by price-led growth—the easy availability of
products through traditional and online grocery markets. The online market is expected to generate a GMV of 37billion
USD by 2025. Technological advancements lead to better consumer purchasing patterns and understanding the
consumer behavior leading to lesser cost of selling using the omnichannel strategy. There is enormous growth potential
in the rural market. The significant rise in disposable income in rural India, the low penetration level, and the rising
digital connectivity are vital growth drivers.
Challenges:
The input costs put manufacturers to raise prices. This has negatively impacted the small and medium manufacturers,
which resulted in 14% of them exiting the business in Q3 2021. 76% of the total growth in Q3 FY21 came from large
manufacturers. The increase in the prices is primarily to withstand inflation. There has been a negative impact on
affordability.
Policy:
The government’s decision to allow 100% and 50% foreign equity in single and multi-brand retail will bolster
sustainable growth opportunities. The PLI scheme incentivizes companies to boost exports and increase investments.
FDI inflow of USD 18.59 billion was witnessed in the last two decades.
Competitive Strategies:
As per a KPMG report, some of the critical strategies industry winners are implementing are
focusing on creating value and Convenience, creating innovative products backed by gaining customer relationships,
and backing the decisions based on data and digital initiatives.
8. Conclusion
From the above Analysis of HUL, it can be observed that being a large company having a portfolio of extensive brands
has allocated equal importance to each one of its product line and service which company serves. HUL has focused on
both the brands which are performing well, and which are not performing well. New products are now brought into the
market keeping in view the importance of innovation and how much weightage it does carry with itself in this dynamic
scenario. The Teamwork and passionate commitment to serve the people is something that the HUL has created value
for itself in the minds of its customers. Being a market leader, it has all the brands under its umbrella to foster the needs
of consumers and people happy buy their products as well. Being a people’s company, it has taken a huge step towards
promoting sustainability by innovating vending machines, smart filler for homes, etc. The company is committed to
new long-term goals and new ideas and the effective improvement approach is supported via significant activities that
span social media. Overall HUL has maintained a brand image in the eyes of customers and also its management is
committed to increase the shareholder value by promoting different kind of innovation and techniques to foster the
growth of the Company.