INDEX

S.NO TOPIC

1 Introduction

2 Complimentary Events

3 Mutually Exclusive Events

4 Exhaustive Events

5 Independent Events

6 Dependent Events

7 Conditional Probability

8 Probability when we toss coin

9 Probability when we roll dice

10 Probability of drawing cards

11 Theorem of Total Probability

12 Baye's Theorem

13 Conclusion

14 Bibliography
NAME - ESHA SATVASE

CLASS - XII

SECTION - B

ROLL . NO - 3

SUBJECT - MATHEMATICS
 EXPLORING

AND

UNDERSTANDING

BAYE ' S THEOREM

 INTRODUCTION
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many
events cannot be predicted with total certainty. We can predict only
the chance of an event to occur i.e. how likely they are to happen, using
it. Probability can range in from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event to be
an impossible one and 1 indicates a certain event. Probability for Class
10 is an important topic for the students which explains all the basic
concepts of this topic. The probability of all the events in a sample
space adds up to 1.
For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head OR Tail, only two
possible outcomes are possible (H, T). But if we toss two coins in the
air, there could be three possibilities of events to occur, such as both
the coins show heads or both show tails or one shows heads and one
tail, i.e.(H, H), (H, T),(T, T).

Events in Probability

In probability theory, an event is a set of outcomes of an experiment

or a subset of the sample space.

If P(E) represents the probability of an event E, then, we have,

 P(E) = 0 if and only if E is an impossible event.

 P(E) = 1 if and only if E is a certain event.
 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.

we can also conclude that, P(E) + P(E’) = 1

EQUALLY LIKELY
What are Equally Likely Events?
When the events have the same theoretical probability of happening,
then they are called equally likely events. The results of a sample space
are called equally likely if all of them have the same probability of
occurring. For example, if you throw a die, then the probability of
getting 1 is 1/6. Similarly, the probability of getting all the numbers
from 2,3,4,5 and 6, one at a time is 1/6. Hence, the following are some
examples of equally likely events when throwing a die:

 Getting 3 and 5 on throwing a die

 Getting an even number and an odd number on a die

 Getting 1, 2 or 3 on rolling a die

are equally likely events, since the probabilities of each event are equal.

Complementary Events
The possibility that there will be only two outcomes which states that
an event will occur or not. Like a person will come or not come to your
house, getting a job or not getting a job, etc. are examples of
complementary events. Basically, the complement of an event
occurring in the exact opposite that the probability of it is not
occurring. Some more examples are:

 It will rain or not rain today

 The student will pass the exam or not pass.
 You win the lottery or you don’t.

In probability theory, two events are said to be mutually exclusive if

they cannot occur at the same time or simultaneously. In other
words, mutually exclusive events are called disjoint events. If two
events are considered disjoint events, then the probability of both
events occurring at the same time will be zero.
If A and B are the two events, then the probability of disjoint of event A
and B is written by:
Probability of Disjoint (or) Mutually Exclusive Event = P ( A and B) = 0
If A and B are said to be mutually exclusive events then the probability
of an event A occurring or the probability of event B occurring that is P
(a ∪ b) formula is given by P(A) + P(B), i.e.,

 P (A Or B) = P(A) + P(B)
 P (A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

Question 5: If P (A) = 2 / 3, P (B) = 1 / 2 and P (A ∪ B) = 5 / 6 then

events A and B are:
Answer:
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
5 / 6 = (2 / 3) + (1 / 2) − P (A ∩ B)
⇒ P (A ∩ B) = 0
The events A and B are mutually exclusive.

EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS
A set of events are called exhaustive events if at least one of them
necessarily occurs whenever the experiment is performed. Also, the
union of all these events constitutes the sample space of that
experiment.
Example :
Consider the set of first 10 natural numbers. Check if the following
defined events are exhaustive.
A: Selecting a prime number
B: Selecting a multiple of 2
C: Choosing a perfect square number
Solution:
Sample space = Set of first 10 natural numbers
i.e. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
Given that,
A is the event of selecting a prime number.
So, A = {2, 3, 5, 7}
B is the event of selecting a multiple of 2.
So, B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}
C is the event of choosing a perfect square number.
So, C = {1, 4, 9}
Now,
A ∪ B ∪ C = {2, 3, 5, 7} ∪ {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} ∪ {1, 4, 9}
= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
=S
Hence, the given set of events are exhaustive.
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Independent events are those events whose occurrence is not

dependent on any other event. For example, if we flip a coin in the air
and get the outcome as Head, then again if we flip the coin but this
time we get the outcome as Tail. In both cases, the occurrence of both
events is independent of each other. It is one of the types of events in
probability. Let us learn here the complete definition of independent
events along with its Venn diagram, examples and how it is different
from mutually exclusive events.

Question: Let X and Y are two independent events such that P(X) = 0.3 and
P(Y) = 0.7. Find P(X and Y), P(X or Y), P(Y not X), and P(neither X nor Y).
Solution: Given P(X) = 0.3 and P(Y) = 0.7 and events X and Y are independent
of each other.
P(X and Y) = P( X ∩ Y) = P(X) P(Y) = 0.3 × 0.7 = 0.21
P(X or Y) = P(X ∪ Y) = P(X) + P(Y) – P(X ∩ Y) = 0.3 + 0.7 – 0.21 = 0.79
P(Y not X) = P(Y ∩ X’) = P(Y) – P(X ∩ Y) = 0.7 – 0.21 = 0.49
And P(neither X nor Y) = P(X’ ∩ Y’) = 1 – P(X ∪ Y) = 1 – 0.79 = 0.21

Dependent Events
Dependent events are those which depend upon what happened before.
These events are affected by the outcomes that had already occurred
previously. i.e. Two or more events that depend on one another are known
as dependent events. If one event is by chance changed, then another is
likely to differ.

Important Result:
When two events, A and B are dependent, the probability of occurrence of A and
B is:
P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)
For instance:
i) Let’s say three cards are to be drawn from a pack of cards. Then the
probability of getting an ace is highest when the first card is drawn, while
the probability of getting an ace would be less when the second card is
drawn. In the draw of the third card, this probability would be dependent
upon the outcomes of the previous two cards. We can say that after drawing
one card, there will be fewer cards available in the deck, therefore the
probabilities tend to change.
ii) Suppose that we want to have a queen. With the first draw of a card, the
chances of getting a queen are 4 out of 52 cards. If we get a queen in the
first draw, then the probability of getting queen in the second draw will be 3
out of 51 cards. Thus, these are said to be the dependent events, since the
probability of the second event depends on the outcome of the first draw.

Example 1: Shareen has to select two students from a class of 23 girls and 25
boys. What is the probability that both students chosen are boys?
Solution: Total number of students = 23 + 25 = 48
Probability of choosing the first boy, say Boy 1 = 25/48
Probability of choosing second boy, say Boy 2 = 24/47
Now,
P(Boy 1 and Boy 2) = P(Boy 1) and P(Boy 2|Boy 1)
= 25/48 . 24/47
= 600/2256
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Conditional probability is known as the possibility of an event or

outcome happening, based on the existence of a previous event
or outcome. It is calculated by multiplying the probability of the
preceding event by the renewed probability of the succeeding, or
conditional, event.
Example : Two dies are thrown simultaneously, and the sum of the
numbers obtained is found to be 7. What is the probability that the
number 3 has appeared at least once?
Solution: The sample space S would consist of all the numbers possible
by the combination of two dies. Therefore S consists of 6 × 6, i.e. 36
events.
Event A indicates the combination in which 3 has appeared at least
once.
Event B indicates the combination of the numbers which sum up to 7.
A = {(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3)(3, 4)(3, 5)(3, 6)(1, 3)(2, 3)(4, 3)(5, 3)(6, 3)}
B = {(1, 6)(2, 5)(3, 4)(4, 3)(5, 2)(6, 1)}
P(A) = 11/36
P(B) = 6/36
A∩B=2
P(A ∩ B) = 2/36
Applying the conditional probability formula we get,
P(A|B) = P(A∩B)/P(B) = (2/36)/(6/36) = ⅓
Probability Formula

The probability formula defines the likelihood of the happening of an

event. It is the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total favorable
outcomes. The probability formula can be expressed as,

where,

 P(B) is the probability of an event 'B'.

 n(B) is the number of favorable outcomes of an event 'B'.
 n(S) is the total number of events occurring in a sample space.

Example 1: Find the probability of getting a number less than 5 when a

dice is rolled by using the probability formula.

Solution

To find:
Probability of getting a number less than 5
Given: Sample space = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Getting a number less than 5 = {1,2,3,4}
Therefore, n(S) = 6
n(A) = 4
Using Probability Formula,
P(A) = (n(A))/(n(s))
p(A) = 4/6
m = 2/3

Answer: The probability of getting a number less than 5 is 2/3.

Example 2: What is the probability of getting a sum of 9 when two dice

are thrown?

Solution:

There is a total of 36 possibilities when we throw two dice.

To get the desired outcome i.e., 9, we can have the following favorable
outcomes.
(4,5),(5,4),(6,3)(3,6). There are 4 favorable outcomes.
Probability of an event P(E) = (Number of favorable outcomes) ÷ (Total
outcomes in a sample space)
Probability of getting number 9 = 4 ÷ 36 = 1/9

Answer: Therefore the probability of getting a sum of 9 is 1/9.

 POBABILITY WHEN WE TOSS COIN
Probability Tree Diagram

A tree diagram in probability is a visual representation that helps in

finding the possible outcomes or the probability of any event occurring
or not occurring. The tree diagram for the toss of a coin given below
helps in understanding the possible outcomes when a coin is tossed
and thus in finding the probability of getting a head or tail when a coin
is tossed.

Tossing Two Coins

In the process of tossing two coins, we have a total of four outcomes.

The probability formula can be used to find the probability of two
heads, one head, no head, and a similar probability can be calculated
for the number of tails. The probability calculations for the two heads
are as follows.

Total number of outcomes = 4; Sample Space = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T,
T)}

 P(2H) = P(0 T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes

= 1/4
 P(1H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with only one head/Total
Outcomes = 2/4 = 1/2
 P(0H) = (2T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes =
1/4
 PROBABILITY WHEN WE ROLL DICE
Dice Roll Probability

Many games use dice to decide the moves of players across the games. A
dice has six possible outcomes and the outcomes of a dice is a game of
chance and can be obtained by using the concepts of probability. Some
games also use two dice, and there are numerous probabilities that can be
calculated for outcomes using two dice. Let us now check the outcomes,
their probabilities for one dice and two dice respectively.

Rolling One Dice

The total number of outcomes on rolling a die is 6, and the sample space is
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Here we shall compute the following few probabilities to
help in better understanding the concept of probability on rolling one dice.

 P(Even Number) = Number of even number outcomes/Total Outcomes =

3/6 = 1/2
 P(Odd Number) = Number of odd number outcomes/Total Outcomes =
3/6 = 1/2
 P(Prime Number) = Number of prime number outcomes/Total Outcomes
= 3/6 = 1/2
Rolling Two Dice

The total number of outcomes on rolling two dice is 62 = 36. The following
image shows the sample space of 36 outcomes on rolling two dice.

Let us check a few probabilities of the outcomes from two dice. The
probabilities are as follows.

 Probability of getting a doublet(Same number) = 6/36 = 1/6

 Probability of getting a number 3 on at least one dice = 11/36
 Probability of getting a sum of 7 = 6/36 = 1/6
 PROBABILITY OF DRAWING CARDS
Probability of Drawing Cards

A deck containing 52 cards is grouped into four suits of clubs,

diamonds, hearts, and spades. Each of the clubs, diamonds, hearts, and
spades have 13 cards each, which sum up to 52. Now let us discuss the
probability of drawing cards from a pack. The symbols on the cards are
shown below. Spades and clubs are black cards. Hearts and diamonds
are red cards.

The 13 cards in each suit are ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack, queen,

king. In these, the jack, the queen, and the king are called face cards.
We can understand the card probability from the following examples.

 The probability of drawing a black card is P(Black card) = 26/52 = 1/2

 The probability of drawing a hearts card is P(Hearts) = 13/52 = 1/4
 The probability of drawing a face card is P(Face card) = 12/52 = 3/13
 The probability of drawing a card numbered 4 is P(4) = 4/52 = 1/13
 The probability of drawing a red card numbered 4 is P(4 Red) = 2/52
= 1/26
THEOREM OF TOTAL PROBABILITY
The total probability rule (also called the Law of Total Probability) breaks up
probability calculations into distinct parts. It’s used to find the probability of
an event, A, when you don’t know enough about A’s probabilities to
calculate it directly. Instead, you take a related event, B, and use that to
calculate the probability for A.

Total Probability Theorem Proof:

Consider a sample space shown in the above figure such that C1, C2, C3
………… Cn is the partitions of the sample space ‘S’ such that Cp ⋂ Cq = ∅
(Null set). i.e. the partitions are disjoint when p ≠ q where p and q = 1, 2, 3, 4
…. n. It is also true that P (Cm) ≠ 0. i.e. no event in the sample space has a
non zero probability. The sample space can be represented as: S = C1 U C2 U
C3 U ………… U Cn → (1)For any event “A’ in the sample space S, the event ‘A’
can be denoted as:A = A ⋂ SSubstituting (1) in the above equation, the
above equation givesA = A ⋂ (C1 U C2 U C3 U ………… U Cn)A = (A ⋂ C1) U (A
⋂ C2) U (A ⋂ C3) U ……… U (A ⋂ Cn)It is clear that A ⋂ Cp and A ⋂ Cq are
the subsets of Cp and Cq respectively. Hence it is true that A ⋂ Cp and A ⋂
Cq are also disjoint for p ≠ q. So, the probability of event ‘A’ can be
calculated as:P(A) = P [(A ⋂ C1) U (A ⋂ C2) U (A ⋂ C3) U ……… U (A ⋂
Cn)]P(A) = P (A ⋂ C1) + P (A ⋂ C2) + P (A ⋂ C3) + ……… + P (A ⋂ Cn) →
(3)However, the multiplication rule of probability states that,P (A ⋂ Cp) = P
(Cp) . P (A | Cp) → (4) Substituting (3) in (4), we getP (A) = P (C1) . P (A | C1)
+ P (C2) . P (A | C2) + P (C3) . P (A | C3) + …. + P (Cn) . P (A | Cn)The above
equation can be shortly written as:P(A) = ∑i=1n∑i=1n\sum_{i = 1}^{n}
P(Ci).P(A | Ci)
THEOREM OF TOTAL PROBABILITY
Total Probability Theorem Examples:

 Example 1: The executive of a company uses either a train or a bus to

reach his office. The probability of his being late if he travels by train is
0.1, and the probability of his being late if he travels by bus is 0.2. What is
the probability that the executive reaches late to office? Use the
concepts from the theorem of total probability to find the required
solution.

Solution:

The probability of being late by train is P(TrainL) = 0.1

The probability of being late by bus is P(BusL) = 0.2

The probability of travelling by train is P(Train) = 0.5

The probability of travelling by bus is P(Bus) = 0.5

The probability of reaching office late by the executive P(Late) =

P(Train).P(TrainL) + P(Bus).P(BusL)

= 0.5 x 0.1 + 0.5 x 0.2 = 0.05 + 0.10 = 0.15

Therefore the probability of reaching late to the office by the executive is

0.15.

 Example 2: Using the concept from the theorem of total probability, find
the probability of finding a raw mango from two baskets, if the
probability of picking a raw mango from one basket is 1/8 and the
probability of finding a raw mango from the second basket is 1/10.

Solution: The probability of picking a raw mango from the first basket is
P(B1) = 1/8

The probability of picking a raw mango from the second basket is P(B2) =
1/10
 The probability of taking the first basket is P(I) = 1/2

The probability of taking the second basket is P(II) = 1/2

Let us now use the concept from the theorem of total probability to find
the probability of picking a raw mango from the two baskets.

P(Raw Mango) = P(I).P(B1) + P(II).P(B2)

= 1/2.1/8 + 1/2.1/10 = 1/16 + 1/20 = (5 × 1)/(5 × 16) + (4 × 1)/(4 × 20)

= 5/80 + 4/80 = (5 + 4)/80 = 9/80

Therefore, the probability of finding the raw mango is 9/80.

Example3 :
A person has undertaken a mining job. The probabilities of completion of
the job on time with and without rain are 0.42 and 0.90 respectively. If the
probability that it will rain is 0.45, then determine the probability that the
mining job will be completed on time.
Solution: Let A be the event that the mining job will be completed on time
and B be the event that it rains. We have,
P(B) = 0.45,
P(no rain) = P(B′) = 1 − P(B) = 1 − 0.45 = 0.55
By multiplication law of probability,
P(A|B) = 0.42
P(A|B′) = 0.90
Since, events B and B′ form partitions of the sample space S, by total
probability theorem, we have
P(A) = P(B) P(A|B) + P(B′) P(A|B′)
=0.45 × 0.42 + 0.55 × 0.9 = 0.189 + 0.495 = 0.684
So, the probability that the job will be completed on time is 0.684.
 BAYE'S THEOREM
To prove the Bayes Theorem, we will use the total probability
and conditional probability formulas. The total probability of an event A is
calculated when not enough data is known about event A, then we use
other events related to event A to determine its probability. Conditional
probability is the probability of event A given that other related events have
already occurred.

(Eii), be is a partition of the sample space S. Let A be an event that occurred.

Let us express A in terms of (Eii).

A=A∩S

= A ∩ (E1,E2,E3,...,EnE1,E2,E3,...,En)

A = (A ∩E1E1) ∪ (A ∩E1E1) ∪ (A ∩E1E1)....∪ ( A ∩E1E1)

P(A) = P[(A ∩E1E1) ∪ (A ∩E1E1) ∪ (A ∩E1E1)....∪ ( A ∩E1E1)]

We know that when A and B are disjoint sets, then P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)

Thus here, P(A) = P(A ∩E1E1) +P(A ∩E1E1)+ P(A ∩E1E1).....P(A ∩EnEn)

According to the multiplication theorem of a dependent event, we have

P(A) = P(E). P(A/E1E1) + P(E). P(A/E2E2) + P(E). P(A/E3E3)......+ P(A/EnEn)

Thus total probability of P(A)

= ∑ni=1P(Ei)P(A|Ei),i=1,2,3,...,n∑i=1nP(Ei)P(A|Ei),i=1,2,3,...,n --- (1)

Recalling the conditional probability, we get

P(Ei|A)=P(Ei∩A)P(A),i=1,2,3,...,nP(Ei|A)=P(Ei∩A)P(A),i=1,2,3,...,n ---(2)

Using the formula for conditional probability of P(A|Ei)P(A|Ei), we have

P(Ei∩A)=P(A|Ei)P(Ei)P(Ei∩A)=P(A|Ei)P(Ei) --- (3)

Substituting equations (1) and (3) in equation (2), we get

P(Ei|A)=P(A|Ei)P(Ei)∑nk=1P(Ek)P(A|Ek),i=1,2,3,...,nP(Ei|A)=P(A|Ei)P(Ei)∑k=1n
P(Ek)P(A|Ek),i=1,2,3,...,n

Hence, Bayes Theorem is proved.

P(E1/ A ) = [P(E1)* P(A/E1)]/[P(E1)* P(A/E1)+ P(E2)*P(A/E2)+P(E3)* P(A/E3)]

 Example 1: Amy has two bags. Bag I has 7 red and 2 blue balls and bag II
has 5 red and 9 blue balls. Amy draws a ball at random and it turns out to
be red. Determine the probability that the ball was from the bag I using
the Bayes theorem.

Solution: Let X and Y be the events that the ball is from the bag I and bag
II, respectively. Assume A to be the event of drawing a red ball. We know
that the probability of choosing a bag for drawing a ball is 1/2, that is,
P(X) = P(Y) = 1/2

Since there are 7 red balls out of a total of 11 balls in the bag I, therefore,
P(drawing a red ball from the bag I) = P(A|X) = 7/11

Similarly, P(drawing a red ball from bag II) = P(A|Y) = 5/14

We need to determine the value of P(the ball drawn is from the bag I
given that it is a red ball), that is, P(X|A). To determine this we will use
Bayes Theorem. Using Bayes theorem, we have the following:

P(X|A)=P(A|X)P(X)P(A|X)P(X)+P(A|Y)P(Y)P(X|A)=P(A|X)P(X)P(A|X)P(X)+P(
A|Y)P(Y)

= [((7/11)(1/2))/(7/11)(1/2)+(5/14)(1/2)]

= 0.64

Answer: Hence, the probability that the ball is drawn is from bag I is 0.64
 Example 2: A man is known to speak the truth 3/4 times. He draws a
card and reports it is king. Find the probability that it is actually a king.

Solution:

Let E be the event that the man reports that king is drawn from the pack
of cards

A be the event that the king is drawn

B be the event that the king is not drawn.

Then we have P(A) = probability that king is drawn = 1/4

P(B) = probability that king is drawn = 3/4

P(E/A) = Probability that the man says the truth that king is drawn when
actually king is drawn = P(truth) = 3/4

P(E/B)= Probability that the man lies that king is drawn when actually
king is drawn = P(lie) = 1/4

Then according to Bayes theorem, the probability that it is actually a king

= P(A/E)

=P(A)P(E|A)P(A)P(E|A)+P(B)P(E|B)P(A)P(E|A)P(A)P(E|A)+P(B)P(E|B)

= [1/4 × 3/4] ÷[(1/4 × 3/4) + (1/4 × 3/4)]

= 3/16 ÷12/16

= 3/16 × 16/12

=1/2 = 0.5

Answer: Thus the probability that the drawn card is actually a king = 0.5
 Example 3: Assume that the chances of a person having a skin
disease are 40%. Assuming that skin creams and drinking enough
water reduces the risk of skin disease by 30% and prescription of a
certain drug reduces its chance by 20%. At a time, a patient can
choose any one of the two options with equal probabilities. It is
given that after picking one of the options, the patient selected at
random has the skin disease. Find the probability that the patient
picked the option of skin screams and drinking enough water using
the Bayes theorem.

Solution: Assume E1: The patient uses skin creams and drinks
enough water; E2: The patient uses the drug; A: The selected patient
has the skin disease

P(E1) = P(E2) = 1/2

Using the probabilities known to us, we have

P(A|E1) = 0.4 × (1-0.3) = 0.28

P(A|E2) = 0.4 × (1-0.2) = 0.32

Using Bayes Theorem, the probability that the selected patient uses
skin creams and drinks enough water is given by,

P(E1|A)=P(A|E1)P(E1)P(A|E1)P(E1)+P(A|E2)P(E2)P(E1|A)=P(A|E1)P(
E1)P(A|E1)P(E1)+P(A|E2)P(E2)

= (0.28 × 0.5)/(0.28 × 0.5 + 0.32 × 0.5)

= 0.14/(0.14 + 0.16)

= 0.47

Answer: The probability that the patient picked the first option is
0.47
 CONCLUSION
Let’s discuss some real-life examples of Probability

1. Weather Forecasting
Before planning for an outing or a picnic, we always check the weather
forecast. Suppose it says that there is a 60% chance that rain may occur. Do
you ever wonder from where this 60% come from? Meteorologists use a
specific tool and technique to predict the weather forecast. They look at all
the other historical database of the days, which have similar characteristics
of temperature, humidity, and pressure, etc. And determine that on 60 out
of 100 similar days in the past, it had rained.

2. Batting Average in Cricket

Batting average in Cricket represents how many runs a batsman would score
before getting out. For example, if a batsman had scored 40 runs out of 100
from boundaries in the previous match. Then, there is a chance that he
would score 40% of his runs in the next match from boundaries.

3. Politics
Many politics analysts use the tactics of probability to predict the outcome
of the election’s results. For example, they may predict a certain political
party to come into power; based on the results of exit polls.

4. Flipping a coin or Dice

Flipping a coin is one of the most important events before the start of the
match. There is no surety, either head will come or not. Both head and tail
have 1 out of 2, i.e., 50% chances to occur. Hence, the probability of getting
the desired outcome is 0.5. Similarly, while playing with dice, there are 1 out
of 6 chances, that the required number will come.
5. Insurance
Probability helps in analyzing the best plan of insurance which suits you and
your family the most. For example, you are an active smoker, and chances of
getting lungs disease are higher in you. So, instead of choosing an insurance
scheme for your vehicle or house, you may go for your health insurance
first, because the chance of your getting sick are higher. For instance,
nowadays people are getting their mobile phones insured because they
know that the chances of their mobile phones getting damaged or lost are
high.

6. Are we likely to die in an accident?

Rates of car accidents have increased rapidly in the past decades. For
example, if a city has a population of one lakh, and the death rate in car
accidents is 500. So, the chance of being killed in a crash is 500/1 lakh is
0.05%. Thus, a person has a 0.05% chance to die in a car accident.

7. Lottery Tickets
Winning or losing a lottery is one of the most interesting examples of
probability. In a typical Lottery game, each player chooses six distinct
numbers from a particular range. If all the six numbers on a ticket match
with that of the winning lottery ticket, the ticket holder is a Jackpot winner-
regardless of the order of the numbers. The probability of this happening is
1 out of 10 lakh.

8. Playing Cards

There is a probability of getting a desired card when we randomly pick

one out of 52. For example, the probability of picking up an ace in a 52
deck of cards is 4/52; since there are 4 aces in the deck. The odds of
picking up any other card is therefore 52/52 – 4/52 = 48/52.
 BIBLIOGRAPHY

 https://www.cuemath.com
 https://brainly.in
 https://quora.com
 https://studiousguy.com
 https://byjus.com
 https://en.wikipidea.com