Vietnam's Economy

Outlook and
Pressure Groups
Anticipating buyer behaviour based
on economy context and shoppers’
financial situations

A Kantar solution
Vietnam's
economy
outlook at a
glance
Consumers’ optimism maintained as GDP YTD growth hits 12-year high (8.83%).

"The economic situation will be better or the same GDP YTD’Q3 % growth during 2011-2022 period (GSO)
as today in the next 12 months."

% Vietnamese households agree in Urban 4 key cities

8.83

86 88
84 81 82
80 6.96 7.04
74 76
6.53 6.41
6.03 5.99
62 65 5.53
60 5.10 5.14

42

2.12
1.42

Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q3’22 | Field work from Aug 29 th to Sep 11th , GSO 3
Household financial difficulty returned to the pre-pandemic level

How do you evaluate the current financial situation of your Household?

% HW agree
COVID-lockdown time Post-COVID recovery

2 7 4 5 4 3 7 6 5 3 2 We are not doing well at all

17 17
23 17 19
25 26 22
27 29 28
33
We need to deprive ourselves sometimes
37

59 53 54
52 It comes out correctly
51
53 51 49
51 47
45
37 We have enough money to allow us some
extras once in a while
17 16 17 21 20
10 13 12 15 11 13
6 6 7 8 6 No financial worries, we don’t need to pay
6 5 5 4 2 5 5 5
attention
Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022

Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q3’22 | Field work from Aug 29 th to Sep 11th 4
More consumers are optimistic about financial improvements in the next 12 months

In the upcoming 12 months, do you think that the financial situation in your house…

% HW agree
4 7 3 6 3 3
9 8 8
16 13
18
Will get much worse
38 37
43 43 42
45 43 43 46
41 31 Will get worse
44

Will remain the same

49 52
44
41 40 42
45
38 39 39
45 Will slightly improve
33

Will strongly improve

9 7 7 7 7 9 7 9 7 7 10 7
Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022

Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q3’22 | Field work from Aug 29 th to Sep 11th 5
 A slump in oil prices relieves pressure on cost for consumers, while concerns about
diseases thrive due to the rising risk of Covid’s return.
Currently what do you consider to be the biggest concerns you and your household are likely to face?

% HH agree

80 Q1_2022 Q2_2022 Q3_2022

% Key Decision Maker Agree

71
70
62
58 57
60
51
50 45
40
40 36
29 28 31 29
30
22 24 23
20 19 18
20 15 17 16 18 18
15 14 15
9
10
2 4
1
0
Disease / Food Safety HH Income Price of Oil Cost of Food Natural Job security Increasing Environmental Diseases in
Sickness Disaster costs Pollutio livestock

Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q3’22 | Field work from Aug 29 th to Sep 11th 6
Introducing
pressure groups
Still, 52% of shoppers are under pressure from
a number of angles – rising grocery prices are
top of mind.

52% of Urban households are concerned with the

cost of grocery and gasoline.

They equate to 51% worth of grocery spend.

Financial pressure, exacerbated by inflation, means that

shoppers will continue to react & adapt in ways we must
support.

Source: Worldpanel Division | Urban Panel & Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities 8
Only ¼ of households are in a comfortable financial position, while 20% particularly feeling the
strain. Which pressure groups are your brands skewed to?
No financial worries, We have enough money
We need to deprive We are not doing well
we don’t need to pay to allow us some extras It comes out correctly ourselves sometimes at all
attention once in a while

5% 20% 54% 19% 2%

25% Comfortable 54% Managing 21% Struggling

Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q3’22 | Field work from Aug 29 th to Sep 11th 9
High income does not guarantee comfortable spending.

% Pressure group by income

16 18
21 24
35

47
57
54
55

55

Only 3 over 10
36 high & mid-high income
25 27
21 households are
10
comfortable
Total HH Income(<=10mln) HH Income(>10- HH Income(>17- HH Income(>26mln) with spending.
<=17mln) <=26mln)

Comfortable Managing Struggling

Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q3’22 | Field work from Aug 29 th to Sep 11th 10
We can reveal the relationship between the groups’ shopping behaviour and the price
inflation they experience.

THE THE
THE MANAGING
COMFORTABLE STRUGGLING

Where is each group on the grocery inflation spectrum?

More Less
personal personal
inflation inflation

Does each group shop differently Do they react to these rising prices
which impacts their personal level differently? Through product mix,
of inflation? retail choices, promotions etc.

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Struggling shoppers are cutting back – is this even
more pronounced in your category?

Change in Grocery Spend per Household YTD P9’22 vs YA

Struggling -1.6%

Managing -1.8%

Comfortable 5.5%

Source: Worldpanel Division | Urban Panel & Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key 12
Additional profiling to enhance understanding of shoppers' mindset.
We can utilise other questions from our survey to understand these shoppers further and anticipate their future behaviour.

Future spend intention – understand the extent to which your category / brand shoppers intend
to reduce their spending on in the future.

% respondent

55 55
48
43
40
30
26 27
24
20
17
9 9 11 11
5 4 5

Daily food Eating out OOH Entertainment Cosmetics Household applicance Transportation

Comfortable Managing Struggling

Source: Worldpanel Division | Consumer Confidence Survey | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | MAT Q3’22 | Field work from Aug 29 th to Sep 11th 13
Kantar expert solutions help you answer:

o WHO amongst your shopper base is most under pressure and feeling
the strain compared to your competitors'?

o HOW are your shoppers in different financial positions behaving and

reacting to changes, such as rising inflation?

o WHAT are the ways in which you can continue to support shoppers
across the financial spectrum?

Contact us at worldpanelvietnam@kantar.com to find out the answers.

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