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16
GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION IN AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT
ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING
K Chandrasekar, M V R Seshasai, C S Murthy and P S Roy
National Remote Sensing Centre
Balanagar, Hyderabad, India
Email: chandrasekar_k@nrsa.gov.in
M onitoring agricultural drought has
been a challenge due to its unique
characteristics. In India, drought monitoring
and early warning is carried out by the central
and state agencies using the meteorological
and agricultural data. India is also one of
the few countries which use satellite data for
monitoring and assessment of agricultural
drought through a program called the
National Agricultural Drought Assessment and
Monitoring System, (NADAMS). NADAMS
uses several satellite-based reflectance and
emittance indices along with meteorological
and agricultural data to monitor and assess
agricultural drought. Integration of satellite-
derived information and ground data to provide
agricultural drought warning and declaration
during the cropping season has been discussed
in this chapter in the states of Andhra Pradesh
and Haryana using IRS-AWiFS/WiFS and
NOAA-AVHRR data respectively. Several
other international endeavors in agricultural
drought early warning and assessment have
also been discussed.
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
FEATURES OF DROUGHT
Food production in the developing world
declined from an average annual growth of 4.2%
during 1991–1995 to 3.5% during 1996–2000.
One of the reasons for this was the alarming
increase in the number of countries affected by
natural disasters, which rose from 28 in 1996 to
46 in 2000.1 One of the major disasters which
severely impair food production is drought.
It is a normal part of the climate, rather than
a departure from normal climate.2 Drought is
a complex phenomenon that can be defined
from several perspectives.3 The definition of
drought varies depending on place, time and
person. Drought can broadly be defined as the
water or moisture deficit at particular location,
during a particular period of time and for a
particular person. The location can be an arid
region or a humid one. The period could be
critical phase of the crop like germination
or flowering and the person could be poor or
rich. Hence, any accurate definition of drought
will be applicable for a specific place and for a
specific person during a particular time period.
 Geospatial Information in Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring
There are several general definitions of drought.
Drought has been defined by the international
meteorological community in general terms as
a ‘prolonged absence or marked deficiency of
precipitation,’ ‘deficiency of precipitation that
results in water shortage for some activity or
for some group,’ or ‘period of abnormally dry
weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of
precipitation to cause a serious hydrological
imbalance’.4,5
Drought differs from other natural
hazards in several ways. First, it is a slow-
onset natural hazard, often referred to as a
‘creeping phenomenon’.6 A week of dry spell
during the monsoon is always welcomed by
most. As the dry spell extends for a fortnight
or more it slowly gets transformed to what
may prospectively become a drought. During
this transition, no one will realize the onset
of drought unless it starts hurting them by
ways of shortage of drinking water or lack of
soil moisture for the crops or loss in power
generation due to lack of head in the reservoir.
Second, its effect is over a larger geographic
area unlike the other hazards which are local
and location-specific. Ambiguity also exists in
identifying the exact boundary of the drought
affected area, as it is not discrete and there is a
slow transition from the non-drought area to
drought-affected area. Third, the duration of
drought may range from few months to several
years. The onset and ending of drought is again
ambiguous. The impact of drought is non-
structural when compared to the damages that
result from other natural hazards like flood,
earthquakes and tropical storms. All these
characteristics, make droughts particularly
challenging to quantify and provide relief as
compared to other natural hazards.7 Drought
affects virtually all regions of the world. It is
a misconception that it does not affect the
humid regions. In 2006, the Indian state of
Assam which receives over 1500 mm during
four months (June–September) of southwest
monsoon,8 faced drought for a brief period.
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
237
This emphasizes that almost any part the
world can be vulnerable to drought.
TYPES OF DROUGHT
The basic reason for manifestation of drought
in any region is the precipitation. In the
hydrological cycle, rainwater gets transformed
as soil water, run off water, deep drainage,
plant water and water vapor. Any substantial
shortfall of water at each transformation
causes hydrological imbalance which will lead
to a particular type of drought. Broadly, three
types of drought are noted: meteorological,
agricultural and hydrological. Meteorological
drought is generally defined as deficiency of
precipitation from the expected or ‘normal’
amount of rainfall during a particular period
of time. Meteorological drought precedes all
the other types. Agricultural drought may
be characterized by a deficiency in soil water
availability for crop growth. The precipitation
deficiencies may lead to reduction in the soil
water reserves which may affect the production
potential of the crops. Hydrological drought
may be a result of long-term meteorological
droughts which result in the drying up of
reservoirs, lakes, streams and rivers, and fall in
groundwater level.9
This chapter focusses on agricultural
drought which is the most complex
among the three types. While dealing with
agricultural drought, we consider rain-fed
agriculture since irrigated agriculture has a
definite source of water apart from rainfall.
With meteorological and hydrological
drought, the deviation from normal can
be categorized into different degrees of
drought. However, such simple deviation
measures are not possible with agriculture
drought as it involves lot of physical and
biological processes. It is the water imbalance
between the demand and supply in the soil–
vegetation–atmosphere continuum. Further,
the water imbalance can happen at any stage
of the cropping season. Based on the period
238 Disaster Management: Global Challenges and Local Solutions
at which the water stress happens during the
cropping season, agricultural drought can be
classified into three categories, namely, early
season, midseason and late season or terminal
drought. We also encounter two more types
of drought, namely, apparent and permanent
drought. These are discussed below.
Early season drought: Under rain-fed
conditions, the cropping season commences
with the significant first soaking rainfall. In
India, sowing starts with the onset of monsoon
during June. If there is delay in the onset of
monsoon, sowing is also delayed. It is also
possible that onset is timely and sowing is
completed but followed by a long dry spell.
Germination and the period just after are
among the critical phases of the crop and dry
spell leading to moisture stress then will lead
to crop mortality and loss of net sown area.
Unless and until these gaps are filled, there
will be reduction in crop production. The loss
of crop yield due to the early season moisture
stress is called the early season drought.
Mid-season drought: When the crop in its
vegetative phase experiences moisture stress due
to break in monsoon or due to a long dry spell, it
is called a midseason drought. Generally, when
the crop is well-established and then undergoes
such midseason drought, it becomes stunted but
survives. Once the monsoon revives, the crop
may partially or completely recover depending
upon the persistence and intensity of dry spell.
The loss in crop yield due to midseason drought
is varying.
Late season or terminal drought: The flowering
and milking stages of the crop are very critical
phases. If there is moisture stress during this
phase due to lack of rainfall, it will lead to loss
of yield both in quantity and quality. The loss
of crop yield due to moisture stress during the
reproductive phases of the crop is called the late
season drought.
Apparent drought: The rainfall during a
particular period of time may be sufficient for
one crop but it may not be adequate for another
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
crop. The stress may also be induced by the
type of soil on which the crop grows. The same
amount of rainfall for similar crops at the same
stage, on sandy and loamy soil will result in
the former crop getting stressed early than the
latter. This sort of differential stress to crops for
the same amount of rainfall is called apparent
drought.
Permanent drought: When the monsoon fails
both in its amount and distribution temporally
as well as spatially, complete failure of crops
occur at a regional scale. Such scenarios often
happen is the arid and semi-arid climatic regions
where the rainfall has very high variance.
PREDICTION OF AGRICULTURAL
DROUGHT
Though the main cause for agricultural
drought is the deficiency of rainfall, it is the
anomalies in atmospheric circulation which is
responsible for deficit rainfall. Hence, in order
to predict drought, it is important to monitor
the atmospheric and ocean circulations.
Enormous energy exchange takes place between
the ocean and the atmosphere which has a
lasting effect globally on a timescale of a few
years. One such phenomenon is the Southern
Oscillation (SO), an atmospheric component
and associated El Nino, an oceanic component,
jointly called the El Nino and Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) which has a profound
impact on the performance of global tropical
monsoons. ‘Strongest connection between
ENSO and intense drought can be found in
Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, parts of east
and south Africa and Western Pacific Basin
island, India, Central America and various
parts of United States’.10 ENSO weakens the
summer monsoon and is related to drought
occurrence in India.11 During the period 1971
to 1988, 11 of the 21 droughts were attributed
to ENSO phenomenon.11,12 About 58% of the
drought events in India were associated with
ENSO phenomenon.13
 Geospatial Information in Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring
Apart from monitoring the teleconnection
phenomenon like the ENSO, analysis of long-
term climatic records may reveal persistent
trends or definite cycles of drought occurrence.
Region-based empirical models can be
developed in order to predict the possibility of
occurrence of drought. An analysis of the long-
term rainfall data of 77 semi-arid locations of
India attempted to derive rainfall probabilities
so as to quantify rainfall in agronomically
relevant terms.14
IMD uses indigenously developed statistical
model with six predictors to forecast the
monsoon onset over Kerala since 2005. These
predictors are: Northwest India Minimum
Temperature, Pre-monsoon rainfall peak
over south Peninsula, Outgoing Long wave
Radiation (OLR) anomaly over the Indo-
China region, South Indian Ocean Sea Surface
Temperature, South Indian Ocean lower
tropospheric wind and Outgoing Long wave
radiation (OLR) anomaly over Southwest
Pacific region. The statistical model has a
forecast error of ± 3 days.8 The other major
regional predictors of the Indian summer
monsoon could be (i) Premonsoon surface
pressure and thermal fields over India, (ii) Pre-
monsoon 500 hPa ridge location over India,
(iii) Upper topospheric winds over India and
(iv) ENSO indicators.15
Advances in knowledge, combined with an
expanded range of data and computing power,
have helped develop prediction schemes
based on computer models that represent
the entire earth/ocean/atmosphere system.16
However, a survey of the scientific literature,
and experience in seasonal climate prediction,
reveals that a variety of impediments
obstructs the optimal use of seasonal climate
forecast, especially in drought mitigation.17 It
is a challenge even today to predict drought a
month or more in advance for most locations
as this mainly depends on the ability to forecast
two basic parameters viz., precipitation and
temperature. The anomalies in precipitation
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
239
and temperature may last from several months
to years.
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT:
MONITORING AND EARLY
WARNING
Though prediction of drought is neither accurate
nor precise, it is critical for planning through
timely and reliable climate information,including
seasonal forecasts, to aid decision makers. This
information, if properly applied, can reduce the
impact of drought and other extreme climate
events.18 An early warning system (EWS) for
drought can be used to supply this information
to the decision makers. Early warning and
monitoring are crucial components of drought
preparedness and mitigation plans.19
In India, monitoring and early warning
of drought is the responsibility of both the
central and state governments. IMD carries
out meteorological drought monitoring
and forecasting function for the union
Government through a network of 2800 rain
gauge stations distributed in 36 meteorological
subdivisions across the country.20 Department
of Science and Technology of Government of
India, in collaboration with Indian Council
of Agriculture Research (ICAR) has set up
89 centres for short- and medium- range
monitoring and forecasting of the weather.21
The revenue department of each state collects
the rainfall data at each tehsil and district. The
state agriculture departments also collect the
information on the area of crop sown, type of
crop, condition of the crop, pest attack, if any,
and other agriculture-related information.
To integrate these data from various sources
and to derive useful information about the
problem areas, a mechanism called the Crop
Weather Watch Group (CWWG) exists within
the Union Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture.
The deliberations of the group and exchange
of information with a similar group at state
level, serve as the triggering mechanism to
240 Disaster Management: Global Challenges and Local Solutions
activate drought response systems.20 Apart
from the efforts by the central Government,
several state governments also have their own
CWWG and institutions to monitor drought.
For example, the Government of Karnataka
has established a Drought Monitoring Cell
(DMC) in the state.
Monitoring of drought using the
conventional data like rainfall and other
field observations has certain limitations like
inaccuracy and lack of availability of near
real-time data. Spatial information technology
like remote sensing from a wide range of
satellite sensors, offers a different dimension
to agricultural drought assessment compared
to conventional subjective, non-spatial
indicators and inconsistent methods of data
collection, currently, being practiced.22 Unlike
point observations of ground data, satellite
sensors provide direct spatial information on
vegetation stress caused by drought conditions.
The reflectance observed by the satellite
can be used to monitor drought conditions
because of their sensitivity to changes in
leaf chlorophyll, moisture content and
thermal conditions.23,24 Polar orbiting, sun-
synchronous satellites provide information
of crop condition synoptically at regular
temporal intervals that enable monitoring
during the crop growth season.25,26,27 Satellite
sensors record the reflectance, emission and
back scattering of electromagnetic energy
from the features of the earth (vegetation, soil
and water). Recent advances in operational
space technology have improved our ability
to address many issues of early drought
warning and efficient monitoring. With help
from environmental satellites, drought can
be detected 4–6 weeks earlier than before and
delineated more accurately, and its impact on
agriculture can be diagnosed far in advance
of harvest, which is the most vital need for
global food security and trade.28 India is one
of the few countries which use the satellite
data for operation drought monitoring and
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
assessment since 1986 under a program called
the National Agricultural Drought Assessment
and Monitoring System, (NADAMS).29
SATELLITE-BASED AGRICULTURAL
DROUGHT INDICATORS
Remote sensing studies of vegetation
normally use specific wavelength selected to
provide information about the vegetation
present in the area from which the radiance
data emanate.30 There are two main optical
domains influencing the optical properties
of vegetation, namely the visible region
(400–700 nm) which has strong cholorophyl
absorption and the near infrared region which
has strong reflectance (700–1000 nm). The
differential reflection of green vegetation in
the visible and near infrared portions of the
spectrum provides an innovative method for
monitoring vegetation from space.31 Using
these optical domains several indices have
been derived to monitor vegetation.32 The
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) is most commonly used in this context
and it is defined as,
ρ nir − ρr
NDVI=
ρ nir + ρr
Where ρnir and ρr represent the percentage
reflected radiation in the near infrared and red
portion of the spectrum respectively. The NDVI
values for vegetation generally range from 0.1
to 0.6, the higher index values being associated
with greater green leaf area and biomass.33 Apart
from NDVI several other vegetation indices
has been developed. These indices have been
classified into first-generation and second-
generation indices.32 First-generation indices
are determined by empirical methods without
reference to atmospheric effects, soil brightness
and soil colour. [e.g., Difference Vegetation
Index (DVI), Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI),
Transformed Vegetation Index (TVI)]. The
second-generation indexes are an improvement
over the first-generation index with mathe-
matical and physical reasoning and logical
 Geospatial Information in Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring
experimental mode, as well as by simulation.32
These are Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index
(SAVI), Atmospherically Resistant Vegetation
Index (ARVI), Perpendicular Vegetation Index
(PVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI).
Vegetation condition index
VCI was first suggested by Kogan.33 It shows how
close the NDVI of the current month is to the
minimum NDVI calculated from the long-term
record. The condition of the ground vegetation
presented by VCI is measured in percentage.
(NDVI − NDVImin )
VCI = × 100
(NDVImax − NDVI min )
where NDVI, NDVImax, and NDVImin are
smoothed weekly, NDVI absolute maximum
and its minimum, respectively from a long-term
dataset (more than 20 years). The VCI values
between 50% and 100% indicate optimal or above-
normal conditions. At the VCI value of 100%, the
NDVI value for this month (or week) is equal to
NDVImax. Different degrees of drought severity
are indicated by VCI values below 50%. Although
there are many vegetation indices and derived
indices, VCI and NDVI deviation from historic
NDVI are being widely used on operational basis
to assess drought situation.34,35,36
Thermal indices
Several studies have demonstrated the usefulness
of integrating biological parameters like
NDVI and physical variables like land surface
temperature (LST) derived from satellite data,
for crop stress studies. LST is an important
biophysical parameter which is directly linked to
the net radiation flux and surface soil moisture
conditions. Agricultural drought monitoring
based on NDVI falls short in monitoring drought
because NDVI is rather conservative indicator of
water stress, which means that vegetation remains
green after initial water stress.37 When the crop
is stressed due to water deficit, the transpiration
rate reduces which leads to the increase in leaf
temperature relative to the air temperature.38
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
241
The LST from the space platform captures the
increased canopy temperature which helps in
assessment and early warning of agricultural
drought. Kogan34 proposed the Temperature
Condition Index (TCI) to be used along with VCI.
TCI is based on the thermal band (chapter 4) of
AVHRR converted to brightness temperature
(BT). TCI is used to determine temperature-
related vegetation stress and also stress caused by
excessive wetness. The TCI algorithm is similar to
the VCI algorithm, and is given as
100(BTmax − BT)
TCI=
(BTmax − BTmin )
where BT, BTmax and BTmin are the smoothed
weekly brightness temperature, multiyear
maximum and multiyear minimum,
respectively, for each grid cell. One of the major
limitations of using thermal data is its sensitivity
to atmospheric water content. Atmospheric
water vapor absorbs the emitted radiation
which leads to underestimation of the surface
temperature. Under Indian summer monsoon
conditions, atmospheric water content changes
dynamically both spatially and temporally. In
order to accurately assess the LST, the influence
of atmospheric water content has to be removed
on a near real-time basis.
Soil moisture with passive remote sensing
Soil moisture plays a very important role in the
hydrological cycle. It contributes significantly
to the water and energy flux from the surface
of the earth. The movement of water from soil
into the atmosphere, helps in cooling the earth’s
surface. Knowledge of the soil moisture will
help in identifying the moisture stress in the
crop which in turn leads to better assessment of
agricultural drought. In spite of its importance
it is very difficult to get the soil moisture
information for agricultural purposes. The
available ground soil moisture information is
non-spatial with sparse network. In India, there
are only 55 soil moisture measuring stations
under the Agricultural Meteorology division
242 Disaster Management: Global Challenges and Local Solutions
of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)
(www.imdagrimet.org). Since soil moisture is
highly variable, it is ideal, to get these data from a
space platform. Several studies in the past three
decades have proved that passive microwave
remote sensing is capable of discerning soil
moisture variations. Passive microwave remote
sensing has been effectively used to measure
soil moisture since late 1970s.39 Gohil has
developed empirical model for retrieval of
soil moisture using 6.6 GHz frequency of
Oceansat-1 MSMR sensor.40 Studies were
carried out to derive empirical relationship
between the actual observed values and
satellite-derived soil moisture value.41 Singh
et al have used this model to assess the spatial
and temporal variability of soil moisture over
India.42 The passive microwave sensor like the
Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and
the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-
Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) measures
the brightness temperature of the soil, which
is fundamentally related to the dielectric
property of the soil. Bindlish et al evaluated the
effects of dense agricultural crop conditions on
soil moisture retrieval using passive microwave
remote sensing and concluded that reasonable
soil moisture estimates can be obtained from
AMSR, even in areas of high vegetation biomass
content (~4–8 kg/m2).43
Process-based indicators
By modelling the energy and mass transfer
between atmosphere and earth, a process-
based indicator know as Evaporative Fraction
(EF) is derived. EF is defined as the fraction of
available energy used for evapotranspiration. EF
is derived as under;
Rn = G + H + λE,
where Rn = Net radiation, H = Sensible heat flux,
λE = Latent heat flux,
λE = (Rn–G) – cp×ρair×1/ra×(Ts–Ta),
where cp= specific heat of air, ρair=density,
ρa= surface roughness, Ts= surface temperature,
Ta= Ambient air temperature
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
EF = λE / (Rn–G),
where EF is the evaporative fraction.
As long as moisture is available, energy is used
for its evapotranspiration and EF will be close
to one (no water stress). In the absence of soil
moisture, all available energy will be directed into
warming up surface and the ambient air and EF
will approach zero indicating serious water stress.
NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT
ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING SYSTEM
(NADAMS)
NADAMS, which is operational at National
Remote Sensing Agency, with the support
of IMD and various state departments of
agriculture, has been providing agricultural
drought information in terms of prevalence,
severity and persistence at state, district and sub-
district level. Presently it covers 13 agriculturally
important and drought-vulnerable states of
the country monitoring drought during kharif
season (June–November), since most of the
agriculture during this season is depends on
rainfall. NADAMS monitors the agricultural
drought conditions at state/district/subdistrict
level using daily observed coarse resolution
(1.1 km) NOAA AVHRR data for 9 states.
Moderate resolution data from Advanced Wide
Field Sensor (AWiFS) of Resourcesat- 1 at 56
m resolution and Wide Field Sensor (WiFS) of
IRS 1C and 1D at 188 m resolution are being
used for detailed assessment of agricultural
drought at district and sub district level in four
states namely, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka,
Maharashtra and Haryana. Moderate-
resolution satellite data from WiFS/AWiFS
sensors from IRS platform is very useful in
identifying the problem area at subdistrict
level.44
Over a period of time, NADAMS has under-
gone many methodological improvements
such as use of moderate-resolution data for
disaggregated level assessment, use of multiple
indices for drought assessment, augmentation
 Geospatial Information in Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring
of ground databases, achieving synergy
between ground observations and satellite-
based interpretation, providing user-friendly
timely information and enhanced frequency of
information.
NADAMS uses NDVI derived from coarse- to
moderate-resolution satellite data for drought
assessment and monitoring. Fortnightly and
monthly maximum value composites are carried
out from the daily NDVI data to reduce the cloud
contamination. Repetitive satellite coverage
provides the capability to temporally monitor
spectral changes resulting from drought. The
relative greenness, i.e., the ratio of current NDVI
to the historic mean NDVI for the same period
is a potential indicator of vegetation stress.35
NDVIdev = NDVIi – NDVIm
NDVIi is the NDVI in the ith month
NDVIm = long-term average for the same
month
Maps produced using relative greenness are
quite useful in assessing drought situation.
The vegetation index derived from spectral
Table 16.1 Agricultural drought warning and declaration in NADAMS project
Month Assessment
June, July, August Normal
Watch
Alert
September, October Mild drought
Moderate drought
Severe
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
243
response are plotted as season profiles for
each administrative unit under consideration.
The peak of this profile corresponds to peak
vegetation cover of the crop. Interpretation of
NDVI profile can be used to derive information
on the crop stage and its progression. Further
NDVI level at peak vegetative stage or the
time integration of NDVI profile is related
with accumulated biomass in the crop or crop
condition or crop yields.
Lowering of NDVI values from normal
reflects moisture stress in vegetation, resulting
from prolonged rainfall deficiency. Such a
decrease in NDVI could also be caused by
other stresses such as pest or disease attack,
nutrient deficiency or geochemical effects.
The seasonal NDVI profile is thus reflective
of vegetation dynamics and condition.
Comparison of NDVI profile of the reporting
year and a previous normal agricultural year
provides assessment of drought impact in the
scale of previous agricultural scenario. The
severity of drought situation is assessed by the
Implications
Agricultural situation is normal
• Progress of Agricultural situation is slow
• Ample scope for recovery
• No external intervention needed
• Very slow progress of agricultural situation
• Need for intervention
• Develop and implement contingency plans
to minimize loss
Crops have suffered stress slightly
• Considerable loss in production.
• Take measures to alleviate suffering
• High risk; significant reduction in crop yield
• Management measures to provide relief
244 Disaster Management: Global Challenges and Local Solutions
extent of NDVI deviation from its long-term
mean, which is then complemented by ground
situation as evident from rainfall and net sown
area progress. In the state of Andhra Pradesh,
India, the NOAA-AVHRR NDVI lags rainfall
by one to two months in most of its districts
and the initial three-month monsoon rainfall
correlates well with the seasonal cumulative
NDVI.45
The methodology adopted in NADAMS
reflects the harmonization of satellite-
derived crop condition with ground collected
rainfall and crop area progression to evolve
decision rules on the prevalence, intensity
and persistence of agricultural drought
situation. The agricultural drought warning
and declaration procedures being followed are
shown in Table 16.1. During June to August,
drought warning information is issued in
‘Watch, Alert and Normal’ categories. In case
of ‘Watch’, external intervention is required if
similar drought-like conditions persist during
the successive month while ‘Alert’ calls for
immediate external intervention, in terms of
crop contingency plans. During September
and October, based on NDVI anomalies
corroborated by ground situation, drought
is declared as mild, moderate and severe
drought.
Soil moisture in the root zone is an
important information that needs to be
incorporated into the drought assessment
using physical models. In these models,
apart from the soil-related ones, weather
parameters like rainfall, temperature, sunshine
hours, wind speed and relative humidity are
very important in estimation of potential
evapotranspiration. Unfortunately, the
distributions of meteorological stations are
very sparse making it difficult to estimate soil
moisture. Automatic Weather Station (AWS) is
an affordable alternative to get detailed weather
information from remote areas. Indian Space
Research Organization (ISRO), has developed
an initiative to develop AWS network
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
throughout the country in a phased manner.
ISRO’s INSAT-3A and KALPANA-1 satellites
carry Data Relay Transponders(DRT), which
can receive data from a large number of AWS
located across the country and transmitted to
a central storage location. From the central
storage location, data will be distributed to the
users. The AWS weather data finds extensive
application in agricultural monitoring:
drought and crop condition assessment, crop
management, disaster management, flood
forecasting and other fields like transport.
It also provides input weather parameters
required to run the soil water balance physical
models.
CASE STUDY: USING IRS-AWIFS/
WIFS DATA
The study area chosen for the case study is the
state of Andhra Pradesh, India. Located in the
Indian peninsula, it is the fifth largest state of
the country with a total geographic area of
27.44 mha. The 2002 and 2007 summer
cropping season were considered for the
analysis. In 2002, the onset of monsoon was
normal during the first fortnight of June.
However, there was a prolonged dry spell during
July and the rainfall in subsequent months
were below normal. The seasonal rainfall for
the state in 2002 was 28% below normal. Due
to the dry spell in July, there was mortality in
the crop sown after the first showers in June
and due to poor rainfall, majority of the crops
failed. During 2007, the onset of monsoon was
normal and the monsoon covered the entire
country by 25th of June. Subsequently, the
rainfall was normal throughout the season and
the state received rainfall 19% above normal.
Figure 16.1 shows the NDVI image derived
from IRS-AWiFS/WiFS data of September
and October during 2002 and 2007 of Andhra
Pradesh. In 2002, due to the normal onset of the
monsoon the vegetation status in comparison
with the normal year showed commencement
 Geospatial Information in Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring
of the agricultural season. The vegetation
status had improved in the northern and
north coastal parts during July 2002. However,
prolonged dry spell during July resulted in low
vegetation index values in southern parts of the
state. This was due to reduced sown area and
poor development of the crops already sown.
The status of the vegetation did not improve
during August and September in many parts
of the state indicating the effect of dry spells.
The rate of increase of NDVI was less than the
normal progression, particularly in southern
region and in parts of north and north coastal
Andhra Pradesh resulting in moderate to
severe drought condition in the state.
In 2007, progression of agricultural season
was normal with normal onset of monsoon.
Significant increase in NDVI during June and
July reflected normal agricultural situation in
most parts of the state. During August below
normal NDVI was observed in seven districts
of the state namely Adilabad, Mahaboobnagar,
Nalgonda, Nizamabad, Medak, Karimnagar
and Ranga Reddy due to deficit rainfall
and were classified under ‘Watch’ category.
In September, the vegetation status had
significantly improved due to normal/excess
rainfall. However, continued slow progression
of NDVI in parts of Mahaboobnagar district
as a result of deficit rainfall, indicated mild
agricultural drought situation. During October/
November, NDVI had reached its maximum
and showed decreasing trend indicating
maximum vegetative and reproductive phases
of standing crops.
The above observation during the cropping
season in 2002 and 2007 clearly showed that
the satellite-based vegetation index along
with the rainfall and other ground collected
agricultural data, was clearly able to identify
the drought condition in major parts of the
state in 2002 and small pockets of the state
in 2007 which was a normal rainfall year.
This clearly demonstrated the capability of
satellite-based assessment and monitoring in
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
245
identifying or predicting the agricultural area
vulnerable to drought.
CASE STUDY: USING COARSE
RESOLUTION NOAA-AVHRR DATA
The NDVI derived from NOAA-AVHRR
has been in use for vegetation monitoring
studies for more than 20 years now. This case
study used NOAA-AVHRR data for drought
monitoring and assessment. The kharif season
(June–October) of years 2002 (drought year)
and 2005 (normal year), were analyzed for the
state of Haryana in India. The seasonal rainfall
(June–September) for the year 2002 was 36%
below normal and during 2005 the seasonal
rainfall was 1% above normal. The onset of
monsoon in the state during 2002 was on 19th
of July, a delay of 18 days, while in 2005 the
onset was on 29th of June. Plate 13 on page
313 shows the NOAA-AVHRR-derived NDVI
image of Haryana during vegetative phase
(August) and peak stage (September) of the
cropping season during 2002 and 2005.
Seasonal progression of fortnightly NDVI,
relative deviation of NDVI in each fortnight
during the season in different districts was
analyzed considering the rainfall pattern,
cropping pattern and irrigation support.
The irrigated northern districts like Ambala,
Yamuna Nagar, Kurukshetra, Kaithal, Karnal,
Panipat and Sonipat has paddy as the major
crop while the south and southwestern
districts like Bhiwani, Jajjahar, Mahendragarh,
Rewari, and Jind are dry irrigated with pearl
millet, maize and cotton as major crops. Plate
14 on page 314 gives the season NDVI profile
of typical irrigated district (Fig. 16.1a) and
dry-irrigated district (Fig. 16.1b). Due to
good rainfall in the second fortnight of June
and first fortnight of July resulting in wet soil,
the 2005 NDVI value was lower than 2002for
this period. The district-wise NDVI deviation
of August during 2002 (drought year) with
reference to normal year revealed that the
246 Disaster Management: Global Challenges and Local Solutions

0.5
0.4
NDVI

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Jun 1f n Jun 2f n Jul 1f n Jul 2f n Aug 1f n Aug 2f n Sep 1f n Sep 2f n Oct 1f n Oct 2f n Nov 1f n Nov 2f n

FORTNIGHT
Karnal 2002 Karnal 2005

(a) NDVI PROFILE OF KARNAL (IRRIGATED)

0.3

0.2
NDVI

0.1

-0.1 Jun1f n Jun2f n Jul1f n Jul 2f n Aug1f n Aug2f n Sep1f n Sep2f n Oct1f n Oct2f n

FORTNIGHT

Bhiwani 2002 Bhiwani 2005

(b) NDVI PROFILE OF BHIWANI (DRY-IRRIGATED)

Fig. 16.1 NDVI profiles of (a)irrigated and (b)dry-irrigated districts of Haryana.

districts of Gurgaon, Jind, Sirsa, Jhajjar, showed significantly lower NDVI values in
Rewari, Hisar, Bhiwani and Mahendragarh 2002 indicating late drought conditions.
had negative deviation of over 20% indicating This study clearly demonstrated that though
early drought condition. The negative NOAA-AVHRR data had coarse resolution,
deviation of NDVI in August was due to the it successfully captured the occurrence of
cumulative effect of late onset of monsoon, drought in 2002.
low rainfall and un-irrigated conditions in
these districts leading to low net sown area
and poor crop establishment in July. There INTERNATIONAL ENDEAVOURS IN
was no significant negative deviation in the DROUGHT ASSESSMENT
northern districts due to poor rainfall because The Food and Agricultural Organization
these districts were irrigated. September is the (FAO) of the United Nations monitors drou-
month of peak vegetative growth resulting in ght situation around the world through a
highest NDVI values during kharif season. system called the Global Information and Early
Comparison of NDVI profiles between Warning Service (GIEWS). It provides timely
2002 and normal year showed that districts and reliable information, to enable necessary
having irrigation support such as Panipat, actions and includes 115 governments, 61
Kaithal and Ambala have same level of NDVI non-government organizations (NGOs) and
values in both the years while the districts of numerous trade, research and media organi-
Bhiwani, Mahendragarh, Rewari and Jhajjar zations. In many drought-prone countries,

DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
 Geospatial Information in Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring
particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a
lack of continuous, reliable information on
weather and crop conditions. For this reason,
GIEWS, in collaboration with FAO’s Africa Real-
Time Environmental Monitoring Information
System (ARTEMIS) have established a crop
monitoring system using near real-time
satellite data.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center and
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
takes on the task of monitoring ENSO condition
and passing on the results and warning to users
communities.46
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
(FEWSNET) is a program to strengthen the
abilities of African countries and regional
organizations to manage risks related to food
security by provision of timely and analytical
early warning and vulnerability information.
Using remotely sensed data and ground-based
meteorological, crop and rangeland condition,
potential threat to food security due to drought
is identified. FEWS NET offers a range of
information products, tools and services
to provide decisionmakers with up-to-date
information necessary to avert or mitigate the
impact of a food security shock. FEWS NET
focusses on strengthening African early warning
and response networks and disseminates
information primarily through its website.47
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
of NOAA along with the United States
Department of Agriculture, the National
Drought Mitigation Center and NOAA’S
National Climatic Data Center, issues a weekly
drought assessment called the United States
Drought Monitor. The US Drought Monitor
provides a consolidated depiction of natural
drought conditions based on a combination
of drought indicators and field reports.
The reports are available weekly at the CPC
website.48
South West Asia (SWA) drought monitor
is a program under the International Water
Management Institute (IWMI), Sri Lanka.
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND LOCAL SOLUTIONS, Rajib Shaw and R R Krishnamurthy, (Eds),
Universities Press (India) Private Limited, India, 2009.
247
It provides timely information on drought
onset, progression and aerial extent at a near
real-time basis for Afghanistan, Pakistan and
western parts of India. The system is based
on drought-related indices derived from high
resolution remote sensing data (MODIS).29,49
It envisages the use of meteorological
and agricultural data for future drought
assessment.
CONCLUSIONS
Drought is a progressive subtle disaster
which affects large population because of the
aerial extent unlike other natural disasters. It
damages the environment and livelihood of
the people. Because of the unique nature of
drought, development of drought monitoring
and early warning system has been a challenge.
Due to global warming and changing climate,
the frequency and intensity of drought have
also been ever increasing. This has made the
world population especially in the developing
countries more vulnerable to drought. With
the availability of huge amount of ground-
based meteorological and agricultural data,
and several drought indices both from ground
and outer space platform, many initiatives
around the globe have been tracking drought.
In India, the NADAMS program has been
monitoring and assessing agricultural
drought. Capability of satellite-derived
indices along with the ground data to provide
more objective information temporally and
spatially has been clearly demonstrated.
Several other international and national
endeavors are in place to monitor and assess
agricultural drought. There is a further need
for a concerted effort by the world community
to improve existing drought monitoring and
early warning system. It is also important to
make the information readily available to the
stakeholders so that proactive measures can
be taken to manage drought and mitigate the
adverse impact of drought on the national
economy and welfare of the human beings.
248 Disaster Management: Global Challenges and Local Solutions
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