1st SEMESTER | 2022-2023 SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

LESSON 4: INFERENTIAL STATISTICS (PART 1)

LECTURER: Dr. Junjie Zuasula, MD, PHSAE, CTTS

variables that we are analyzing. We

TOPIC OUTLINE
INFERENTIAL STATISTICS
SAMPLE
STATISTICAL POWER
SAMPLING
SAMPLING DESIGNS
INFERENTIAL STATISTICS
- By the term alone “inferential”, meaning
to say from the root word “inference”
which is an educated guess. You want
to infer basing on a set of samples on the
characteristics of the total population.
- Without studying the total population,
just by taking samples, and studying a
particular variable/s of the particular
sample, you can be able to generalize
the variables or characteristics into the
total population.
SAMPLE
➢ Is a selected subset of a population.
➢ May be random or nonrandom and may
be representative or non-
representative. But we want to have
representative samples.
➢ A smaller (but hopefully representative)
collection of units from a population
used to determine truths about that
population (Field, 2005)
WHY DO WE SAMPLE?
➢ We sample because we do not have
time or resources.
➢ Another usual reason is because there
are only a few people who research.
Such that manpower resources, is one of
the reasons why we need to sample.
➢ We want results with known accuracy
that can be calculated
mathematically. This depends on the
need to know that specific statistical
test that is appropriate for that particular
variable. We need to know the
characteristic, the nature, and type of
variable because each type of variable
has a specific appropriate statistical test
that you need to utilize in order for you
to come up with the right results by
calculating it mathematically.
SAMPLING
➢ The process of selecting a number of
subjects from all the subjects in a
particular group, or in statistical research
we call it “universe.”
➢ From there, you derive conclusions and
some appropriate recommendation
based on sample results that may be
attributed only to the population
sampled.
➢ From a smaller set of units, you can now
infer that most likely, most probably, this
is also what is happening to the whole
population or your universe.
➢ There are several populations that you
may be interested with in when you start
your research. One of the questions that
you can use to be guided is:
o To whom do you want to
generalize your results?
→ Doctors, school
children, Indians,
Women aged 15-45
years, and other
specific groups as long
as it is a defined group.
o Can you sample the entire
population?
→ If not, then maybe the
population is just too
small which is no longer
logical for you to
sample.
→ If you can reach the
whole population then
why not.
→ You do not have to
calculate the sample

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 size for each of the
research study. If the
number of people you
want to study is within
your reach, or as
resources are
concerned, then by all
means you can just do
what we call “total
enumeration.” Which is
like a census. Therefore,
it is no longer in the
realm of inferential
statistics.
→ But, if you can sample
the entire population,
but it is too large for
you, then by all means,
compute for an
appropriate sample
size which you will need
to do sampling design
because you are
already particularly
interested in doing
inferential statistics.
➢ There are three factors that influence
sample representativeness:
o Sampling procedure
→ Otherwise known as
“sampling design”,
“sampling technique”,
“sampling
methodology”.
o Sample size
→ Is it large enough for
you to derive a your SAMPLE. Very important in research is that
particular conclusion?
→ Are the samples
randomly chosen?
There weren’t any
biases involved?
o Participation (response)
WHEN MIGHT YOU SAMPLE THE ENTIRE
POPULATION?
o When your population is very
small.
o When you have extensive
resources.
o When you do not expect a very
high response.
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→ If that is the case, in
order for you to get the
exact phenomenon,
you might as well get
the entire population’s
response.
→ For example, the
prevalence of a
specific disease entity is
very small in a
particular population.
When you a sample a
number of individuals
or representatives from
that population, you
may not get the real
picture because the
incidence of a
particular factor is very
small, or the response is
not that high enough.
“This is just a diagram to show you where you get
the sample. You start first with your TARGET
POPULATION the define it. From that target
population, what particular subgroup will you
study which will be your STUDY POPULATION.
From that study population, you will then define
you must define the target, study, and sample
populations.”
WHY COMPUTE FOR THE SAMPLE SIZE?
➢ To assure confidence in the study results
and conclusions.
➢ To estimate an appropriate number of
subjects for a given study design, i.e, the
number needed to find the result you
are looking for with the least bias.
Remember!
• In reality, you are only making a ballpark
estimate.
 • Samples are just there for you to
estimate the real value of a particular
characteristic if you have the chance to
study the population. It depends on the
population size.
• If you collect a sample that is way below
the sample size, you may fail to answer
the research question because the
power of your study will be very low.
• Too large of a sample will be more
difficult and costly especially when you
are doing a prospective study design
such as randomize control trial,
community control trials like vaccine
efficacy studies. On top of that, you
may be needlessly exposing a number
of ‘subjects’ to possible harm.
• It is important to know that although a
useful guide, sample size calculations
give a deceptive impression of
statistical objectivity.
• We will also be requiring assumptions in
order to compute for the sample size.
These assumptions could be right or
wrong. But we need to have previous
figure study results in order for us to
gauge our samples in the study we are
about to start.
SAMPLE SIZE
➢ Can only be as accurate as the data
and estimates on which they are based.
→ If the target population is
biased, then you will expect
that the results of your sample
will also be biased.
➢ Often reveals that the research design is
not feasible, or that different predictor or
outcome variables are needed.
→ Some researchers, specifically
novice researchers, would only
look at one particular risk factor
in COVID when in fact it needs
several factors that are
interacting with one another.
→ It is very important to have the
knowledge of research design
or the knowledge of
confounding and bias.
➢ RULE OF THUMB: sample size should be
estimated early in the design phase of
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the study, when major changes are still
possible.
→ In developing a research
design, you would already take
into consideration confounding
variables.
➢ In addition to the statistical analysis plan,
the sample size section is critical to a
research proposal of any kind of grant.
→ Your research will somehow be
driven by a sponsor or a grantor,
the number of samples will
really define how much that
sponsor will give you as far as
funding the research is
concerned.
➢ According to research, 42% of research
proposals examined in one review
paper were criticized for the sample size
justifications or analysis plans.
→ Some have bloated work and
financial plan. Because of that
sample size, they were criticized
if this was enough to really
accurately represent the total
study population.
➢ Worst, some are much more involved in
the cut-and-paste paragraph.
→ Most of these novice
researchers become tired of
coming up of their own
description or sentences, with a
convenient source they can just
cut-and-paste the research
that were published online.
→ They will be suffering
technicalities such as
plagiarism, data privacy act.
STATISTICAL POWER
➢ A crucial element in the computation of
sample size is what we call “statistical
power.”
➢ Power is the probability that the null
hypothesis is rejected using that
particular statistical test, if a specific
alternative hypothesis is true.
➢ It is the ability of that particular statistical
test to detect the true change of a
 particular characteristic or variable in
the population.
• β – represents Type II error or false
negative values of a set of data, the
probability of not rejecting the null
hypothesis when the given
alternative is true.
1-β= power
➢ The power of a study should be
minimally 80% and often, studies are
designed to have 90-95% power to
detect a particular clinical effect.
→ When you start computing for
the sample size using softwares,
you will be asked for the power
of the study.
→ In medical research, it is usually
at 80% as the minimum power
of the research statistics. If you
are not yet confident of the
data you have gathered, do
not manipulate the power. Let it
remain at 80%. If you are
confident enough, then you
may increase it to 90-95%.
WHAT FACTORS AFFECT POWER?
o α – level of significance
o β – the false negative
o variability of your data
o baseline incidence
o n – sample size
That is why we study statistical power because
this is a very important element in computing
sample size.
ELEMENTS OF COMPUTING STATISTICAL POWER
1. Effect Size
- It is the deviation from the null
that the investigator wishes to
be able to detect.
*null – 1 or no effect; equivocal; not beneficial
and not harmful
EXAMPLE
- It is a quantitative measure of
the strength of a phenomenon /
association / relationship.
- One common effect size that
you often meet especially
when reading or coming across
prospective studies or
randomize control trials, are
what we call as:
• Cohen’s d or delta
value – assuming SD’s
are the same in each
group.
→ 0.2 = small
effect
→ 0.5 = medium
effect
→ 0.8 or higher =
large effect
(better)
• Glass’s delta – when
the SD’s of the groups
differ.
- The amount of difference between two
groups in standard deviation units.
- PURPOSE:
o It is used as a counterpoint to
significance tests where it gives
an indication of how big or
small a significant difference is.
This difference can then be
compared to Cohen’s
estimates as of what is typical of
a small, medium, or large
effect.
→ Significance tests
meaning the statistical
tests of significance.
→ If you really want more
detailed evidence of
your statistical test, you
can compute for the
effect size.
o To provide a common measure
on which to compare effects
for meta-analysis or what not
when outcome variables may
be measured on different
scales.
➢ There was already a prior statistical test
which showed a significant difference in
self-esteem. The researchers did not
stop there. They then performed a

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 Cohen’s d determination which they
have found a value of .50.
➢ In other words, the intervention was
effective because it was associated
with an increase in self-esteem by 1
standard deviation from the mean.
INTERPRETING EFFECT SIZES:
EXAMPLE
➢ The effect size is 1.82 looking at the
Cohen’s d. We know that with a value
of more than 0.8 is a large effect size.
With this, more or less, this is a well
conducted study.
2. Variability
➢ May be expressed in terms of a standard
deviation or an appropriate measure of
variability for the statistic. If the
hypotheses are concerned with a
population proportion, the value of the
proportion and the sample size are used
to calculate the variability. The
investigator will need an estimate of the
variability in order to calculate the
power.
3. Baseline Incidence
➢ It is related to the effect size.
➢ If it is hypothesized that a rate has
increased or decreased, the baseline
rate and the effect size must both be
known to calculate the power for
detecting such change.
➢ For example, if you are interested in
knowing the particular prevalence rate
of a COVID-19 in a particular institution,
you need to know what you want to
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compute for the sample size because as
a researcher you do not have enough
resources to get swabs of all medtech
students in velez. So, you just get a
sample of each of the year level. One of
the requirements for getting the sample
size is the baseline incidence rate of a
previous study with similar interest. You
would want to use the incidence rate of
that study to compute for the sample
size of your study.
➢ This is related to effect size because
effect size is relative to the prevalence
or incidence rate.
➢ Power is directly related to effect size,
sample size and significance level. An
increase in either the effect size, sample
size or the significance level will produce
increased statistical power, all other
factors being equal.
→ The more samples, the more
powerful your statistics will be.
➢ Power is inversely related to variability.
Decreasing variability will increase the
power of a study.
→ And increasing variability, of
course, will decrease the power
of the study.
EXAMPLE:
➢ For this example, a p value of less than
0.05 is significant. And a p value of more
than 0.05 is less statistically significant.
SAMPLING
➢ SAMPLING BIAS
→ Is a systematic error due to
study of a nonrandom sampling
of a population.
→ If you do not perform
randomization, chances are
 you will be committing
sampling bias. You will be
biased of the particular
characteristic of the sample 2. nQuery Advisor
group you chose. - not free
→ Randomization is one effective
way of eliminating bias.
➢ SAMPLING ERROR
→ Occur because of variation in
the number or
representativeness of the 3. G Power
sample that responds. Sampling
errors can be controlled and
reduced by (1) careful sample
designs, (2) large enough
samples, (3) and multiple
contacts to assure a 4. Open Epi
representative response. A - this is usually
sample may be obtained suggested for us.
randomly but they may not
always be representative.
→ When you do a qualitative
design, when you ask several
individuals, multiple contacts
until you get saturated 5. Epi Info
responses. This is how you - This is a software developed by the
decrease sampling error. CDC.
➢ SAMPLING VARIATION - Used for
→ Since the inclusion of individuals disease surveillance.
in a sample is determined by
chance, the results of analysis
in two or more samples will differ
purely by chance.
→ There are natural differences
amongst individuals. Blood ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR COMPUTING
pressure may be different in SAMPLE SIZE:
other people and even heart. - Consider strategies for minimizing
These differences are what we sample size and maximizing power,
term as “variation.” which include using:
o Continuous variables
SAMPLE SIZE SOFTWARES o Paired measurements
➢ There are several softwares available o Unequal group sizes
nowadays in order for you to compute o A more common binary
for a good sample size: outcome (ie, prevalent)
1. Power and Sample Size Calculation (PS) - Useful to calculate and report a range of
- free for sample sizes by assuming different
download or use combinations of parameter values -
online. take the largest sample size to cover all
bases.

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 - Always justify the feasibility of the
calculated sample size.
→ Why did you come up with such
a sample size?
- How long would it take to accrue/enroll
the subjects?
→ You may want to just enroll for
example 6 months of your data
gathering period in order for
you to come up with a sample
size.
- Need to consider the source of subjects,
the inclusions/exclusions criteria the
prevalence of the outcome and etc.
→ You have to define the
inclusion/exclusion criteria. Who
are included? Who will be in
your exclusion?
SAMPLING DESIGNS
*SAMPLING FRAME = it is important to have an
updated sampling frame because this is the
source material or device from which a sample
is drawn. It is a list of all those within a population
who can be sampled, and may include
individuals, households, or institutions. It must be
representative of the population and should be
an updated list.
➢ These are the most common sampling
designs. Two major criteria are:
o Probability (Random) Samples
• Simple random sample
• Systematic random
sample
• Stratified random
sample
• Multistage sample
• Cluster sample
o Non-Probability Samples
• Convenience sample
• Purposive/ Judgmental
sample
• Quota
➢ The process of sampling must be
included in the proposal. The sampling
process comprises several stages:
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1 Defining the population of concern.
2 Specifying a sample frame, a set of items
or events possible to measure.
3 Specifying a sampling method for
selecting items or events from the frame.
4 Determining the sample size.
5 Implementing the sampling plan.
6 Sampling and data collecting.
7 Reviewing the sampling process.
➢ In any research proposal, if you plan to
do inferential statistics, you have to
mention sample size calculation and
sampling design.
PROBABILITY SAMPLING
➢ The underlying mechanism here is
randomization. The probability of each
of the units to be chosen with an equal
chance to be chosen.
➢ This is far better than non-probability
sampling.
➢ Every unit in the population has a
greater than zero chance of being
selected in the sample and this,
probability can be accurately
determined.
➢ When every element in the population
does have the same probability of
selection, this is known as an “equal
probability of selection design” (EPS).
Such designs are also referred to as ‘self-
weighting’ because all sample units or
given the same weight.
➢ The evidence is better, stronger, and
more reliable if you do probability
sampling.
NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLING
➢ It is based on convenience or maybe
because you do not have enough
resources that you have to resort in non-
probability sampling.
 ➢ It doesn’t mean if you are doing non-
probability sampling, your evidence is
not that strong enough.
➢ Examples of the common non-
probability sampling designs includes:
o Accidental sampling
o Quota sampling
o Purposive sampling
➢ In addition, nonresponse effects may
turn any probability design into a
nonprobability design if the
characteristics of the nonresponse are
not well understood, since nonresponse
effectively modifies each element’s
probability of being sampled.
DISADVANTAGES
If sampling frame is large, this method is
impracticable.
Minority subgroups of interest in population may
not be present in sample in sufficient numbers for
study
→ Some simple random sampling in animal
studies does “WOR” or “without
replacement” and “WR” or “with
replacement.

PROBABILITY SAMPLING: Simple Random

➢ It is the most common method of
probability sampling.
➢ One of the common simple random
➢ WR (with replacement): Once a sample
sampling designs is the fishbowl
is chosen, there is a design that could
sampling where you assign a number to
either study that particular sample or
each of the elements and roll it into
animal and put it back. There will then
pieces of paper and put it in the fish
be a chance that that particular animal
bowl for it to be picked randomly until
will be chosen again.
you get the desired sample size. It is
➢ WOR (without replacement): Once that
important that you assign each of the
particular sample is chosen, then you
units in random numbers.
have to put it somewhere else wherein
➢ Applicable when population is small,
the chance of it not being chosen is
homogeneous and readily available
already there. In other words, it wont be
➢ All subsets of the frame are given an
chosen again.
equal probability. Each element of the
frame thus has an equal probability of
PROBABILITY SAMPLING: Systematic Sampling
selection.
➢ Relies on arranging the target
➢ It provides for greatest number of
population according to some ordering
possible samples. This is done by
scheme and then selecting elements at
assigning a number to each unit in the
regular intervals through that ordered
sampling frame.
list.
➢ A table of random number or lottery
➢ Systematic sampling involves a random
system is used to determine which units
start and then proceeds with the
are to be selected.
selection of every kth element from then
➢ One important aspect is you need to
onwards. In this case, k = population
generate a random number using a
size/sample size. We are arranging it in
random number generator.
chronological or natural order. From
there, you can start selecting your
CHARACTERISTICS:
sample based on the sample size
→ Estimates are easy to calculate.
calculated.
→ Simple random sampling is
➢ It is important to have the kth element or
always an EPS design, but not
the sampling interval.
all EPS designs are simple
random sampling.

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 ➢ It is important that the starting point is
not automatically the first in the list but is
instead randomly chosen from within
the first to the kth element (sampling
interval) in the list.
➢ A simple example would be to select
every 10th name from the telephone
directory. (an ‘every 10th’ sample, also
referred to as ‘sampling with a skip of
10’).
➢ This is calculating the kth element =
sampling interval. This is calculated by
the total number of populations over the
sample size which will be our kth
element. But you have to arrive at a
random number from the random
number calculator. You identify what
that random number is, and this is where
you start you sampling interval.
➢ For example, you have gotten a
random number of 2 or 5, you then
identify the 5th element of your sampling
frame and start from there. If your
sampling interval is 10, you count from
the 5th element, the first sample is the
15th element. You continue counting
until you arrive at the sample size.
Sample evenly
spread over entire
reference
population.
➢ There is a way to minimize errors in
systematic sampling in the analysis.
PROBABILITY SAMPLING: Stratified Random
➢ Where population embraces a number
of distinct categories, the frame can be
organized in to separate “strata”.
➢ Each stratum is then sampled as an
independent subpopulation, out of
which individual elements it can be
randomly selected.
• Every unit in a stratum has the
same chance of being
selected.
• Using same sampling fraction
for all strata ensures
proportionate representation in
the sample.
• Adequate representation of
minority subgroups of interest
can be ensured by stratification
and varying sampling fraction
between strata as required.
➢ This is basically doing systematic random
sampling in certain groups or strata.

PROBABILITY SAMPLING: Cluster Sampling

➢ Usually used in public health studies.
➢ Two types of cluster sampling methods
ADVANTAGES DISADANTAGES
1 ONE-STAGE SAMPLING
Sample is easy to Sample may be A sample of areas is chosen.
select. biased if hidden i.e., communities. All of the
periodicity in elements within selected clusters
population coincides are included in the sample.
with that of selection.
2 TWO-STAGE SAMPLING
i.e., if there is a
A sample of respondents within
particular season that
those areas is selected. A subset
a particular variable of elements within selected
exists, and you chose
clusters are randomly selected for
another season, then
inclusion in the sample.
chances are the
➢ Population divided into clusters of
representativeness
homogeneous units, usually based on
will suffer.
geographical contiguity.
Suitable sampling Difficult to assess
➢ Sampling units are groups rather than
frame can be precision of estimate individuals i.e., households.
identified easily. from one survey.

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 ➢ A sample of such clusters is then ➢ Differences between the two are the
selected. homogeneity of the groups. Strata may
➢ All units from the selected clusters are be heterogeneous. For clusters, the
studied. homogeneity of the samples are
ADVANTAGES DISADANTAGES present.
Cuts down on the Sampling error is
cost of preparing a higher for a simple PROBABILITY SAMPLING: Multistage Sampling
sampling frame. random sample of
the same size.
This can reduce travel Generally, increases
and other the variability of
administrative costs. sample estimates
above that of simple
random sampling.
➢ For this reason, cluster sampling requires
a larger sample than SRS to achieve the
same level of accuracy -but cost
savings from clustering might still make
this a cheaper option.
➢ Often used to evaluate vaccination
coverage in EPI.
➢ In essence, there is no perfect sampling
design. What we can do is develop a
better sampling design in order to
eliminate bias by looking at your PROBABILITY SAMPLING: Matched Sampling
resources.
➢ It is better and ideal to sample each of
the participants or units. But again, ideal
may necessarily not be achievable.

EXAMPLE:

NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLING: Quota Sampling

➢ The population is first segmented into
mutually exclusive subgroups, just as in
stratified sampling.
➢ Then judgment used to select subjects
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN STRATA AND CLUSTERS
or units from each segment based on a
➢ Both of these are groups but strata is
specified proportion.
particularly the groups involved in
➢ For example, an interviewer maybe told
sampling. Clusters are another group
to sample 200 females and 300 males
but specifically which of the group will
between the age of 45 and 60.
be chosen.
➢ A good example is when you enter SNR
➢ Strata is just defining the categories of
or Landers where they are giving
each group while clusters are specific
samples of food to taste which depicts
groups that you choose to study.
Quota sampling. Once they reach their
sample size, they stop giving out.

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NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLING: Convenience
Sampling
➢ This is basically known as grab or
opportunity sampling or accidental or
haphazard sampling.
➢ A type of non-probability sampling
which involves the sample being drawn
from that part of the population which is
close to hand. That is, readily
available and convenient.
➢ The researcher using such a sample
cannot scientifically make
generalizations about the total
population from this sample because it
would not be representative enough.

NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLING: Judgemental or

Purposive Sampling
➢ The researcher chooses the sample
based on who they think would be
appropriate for the study.
➢ This is used primarily when there is a
limited number of people that have
expertise in the area being researched.
➢ For example, the research question is
that the knowledge, attitude, and
practices of OB-GYN Practitioners in
promoting condom use among
couples. The group there is the OB-GYN
so that is purposive. In this, the
researchers are clear that they only
want to study OB-GYN practitioners.

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