Maheen Shariq

Ms Aqila Zaman

SS 100

March 6 2019

The article "Nuclear Winter" was published on 30th October 1983 in Parade Magazine by Carl

Sagan (www.smithsonianmag.com). Carl Sagan was an American astronomer and a science

writer. His work focused on studying the planets and their atmosphere, after which he

developed an interest in studying the earth. In 1983, the TTAPS study, which included

initials of the names of the scientists that were a part of this, started researching on

atmospheric layers and the effect of smoke and other similar products on the earth. They also

looked into cities that were already destructed by nuclear war and explained the

environmental effects that were caused by them (www.britannica.com). However, through

this article Carl Sagan explained how dangerous a nuclear war can be. He explained the

possible consequences and introduced a term "Nuclear Winter" to explain them. And he

advised the audience to save themselves from any chances of such destruction. This study

included R.P Turco, O.B Toon, T.P Ackerson, J.B Pollack and Carl Sagan. This article

received criticism from other scientists because they considered it to be political then it was

scientific. His main field was studying atmospheres and not nuclear weapons, which was one

of the reasons why it was opposed by most of them. Although the facts mentioned in the

article are only theoretical, however the writers succeed in convincing their audience because

.of the credible sources, appropriate tone and presentation of ideas, and the statistics used

In this article, Carl Sagan warned against a nuclear war by explaining the destruction that

could be caused by it. In a world, where most of the countries own nuclear weapons, if a war
were to happen, he claimed that half the world would be affected by it. He reported a study

by World Health Organization that claimed that about a billion people will die from the war

and another billion people will have severe injuries which will be incurable. He gathered data

from already destructed cities like Bikini Atoll, and using other sources he explained that a

dust storm will be formed around the earth which will prevent sunlight from entering and the

earth will experience cold and darkness. Effects of these as he claimed would cause the

plants and the animals to die especially in the Northern Hemisphere and as a result people

will starve to death. This combined with the radioactivity will destroy the world. According

to Carl Sagan, if a nuclear war is to happen, the consequences can be far worse than what

.they're imagining and so it is important to safeguard our earth from this destruction

The usage of credible sources in the article persuades the reader of the authors claim. Studies

and calculations done by scientists and government officials help the reader to believe the

claims made in article. For example, claims by the U.S Department of Defense and Official

Soviet are mentioned that prove that at the time of the war there will be chaos. There will be

communication failure and disorganization, the extent of which is beyond anticipation. A

study by Sune K. Bergstorm under the World Health Organization also explained the amount

of destruction that could be caused in general. Carl Sagan also joined forces with James B.

Pollack and Brian Toon who were a part of NASA's Ames Research Center and with Richard

Turco who had previously studied about nuclear weapons and their effects. The results were

then included in this article. Further studies were done by Paul Crutzen from Max Planck

Institute of Chemistry and by John Birks from University of Colorado and they estimated the

amount of smoke that will be generated. All of these results prove the reliability of the

claims. These studies were done by people who were experts in their fields and they

estimated the consequences taking everything into consideration. Moreover, these results

were checked by more than 100 scientists from the United State, Soviet Union and Europe.
And there was a general agreement on the conclusions. All of these studies prove that nuclear

.war isn’t going to bring any good result

Another reason why the author succeeded in delivering its point was the use of appropriate

tone and presentation of ideas. The subject is a serious one, and so the tone needed to be

professional. And Carl Sagan adopted a serious tone, which showed the gravity of the topic.

He was to the point and his reasons were also explained in easy language. The article was

published in a magazine and thus had audience that didn’t have any detailed knowledge in

such a topic. This is why it was necessary to present the ideas in a way that could be

understood by the masses. This was done by not using too many scientific terms and

explaining the whole process as simple as possible. The studies mentioned also explain their

results in understandable terms. For example, Carl Sagan introduced the concept of Nuclear

,Winter