Research Project

Module Code: CB7480

Surname: JEMUTAI

First Name: Faith

Login: fj69

Student Number: 19880392

Required Word Count: 8000-10000

Actual Word Count: 8200

Declaration: I confirm the work submitted is entirely my own and have fully
referenced my sources as appropriate. I am aware of the penalties for plagiarism.

Date: 11/05/2022
THE IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON THE SUPPLY CHAINS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Executive summary

The management of the supply chain drives the economy in a hidden way and the spread of the
covid-19 pandemic has affected our business in various ways. Covid-19 was contained through
measures that affected trade and made cross-country trade more costly. Our attention has
been drawn to the impact of export bans, border closures, and import tariffs that have been
imposed on our activities. After the government banned non-essential businesses, we
experienced a severe economic downturn. Impacts differed from one country to another
depending on the type of virus that spread. The globalisation of the global supply chain was a
major influence because it made it possible and convenient to coordinate the international
supply chain. Considering firm boundaries and geographical positions, many international
managers try to shift costs and risks within their businesses to remain viable. Furthermore,
pandemics also emphasize physical characteristics, which are at the heart of our operations.
These include production, trade sales, and transportation of physical goods. Therefore, we are
anticipating covid-19's effect on the intangibles as well as the duration of the pandemic and its
effect on the economy. The structures must be redesigned so that they can adapt to the
changing impacts caused by this pandemic.

In the wake of such an unexpected pandemic, our international business must build
competence to boost confidence in trade and maintain supply chain flows despite many trade
barriers. The virus has been receding in waves, and therefore it is evident that this virus will still
be present for some time to come, so we should avoid economic strain to prevent further
escalation. In this paper, there is an effort to tackle issues related to the pandemic with a global
approach. Sectors in other industries are affected differently because of expected changes in
consumer behaviour. Our society needs to keep implementing prevention measures to handle
outbreaks quickly and learn from their effects. While navigating these challenges is challenging,
it does not guarantee a promising future because the effects on other characteristics of the
economy are greater than the effects on the international supply chain. To address these
issues, companies must implement virtual forms of job autonomy, recruiting, and training to
boost a self-oriented entrepreneurial approach. The global market niche emphasizes the
significance of the supply chain for international business due to the link between the
manufacturing and distribution departments. The goal of every corporation is to improve its
plans because consolidated production will not be a solution due to the unpredictable nature of
this pandemic, therefore they should invest in excellent measures.
1. Introduction

In December 2019 the world was struck by a virus that originated in Wuhan city in China with
27 cases of unknown pneumonia which has spread worldwide over a short period (Lu et al.,
n.d.). The supply chain and international trade disruptions happen due to various factors such
as natural calamities and crises. COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the death and losses of
humans and the economic sectors and activities (Bloom et al.,2018). For example, supply chain
and international trade among others globally (World Health Organization,2020a). According to
Fortune (2020), COVID-19 resulted in the interruptions of the supply chains of 94% of
businesses included on the Fortune 1000 list. Significantly the enforcement of lockdown by
most countries has caused a reduction in demand for goods and services in the market.
Moreover, the lockdowns have disrupted both the domestic and foreign supply chains.
Consequently, this pandemic results in unemployment that will decrease demand and
therefore, lead to a serious economic crisis (De Vito and Gomez,2020).

The stoppage of international flights to and from Wuhan is one of the first measures taken at
the start of the pandemic. With the increased infections, procedures such as the disruptions of
schools, workplaces in certain governmental and private institutions, shut down of stores,
restaurants, and cafés among others were introduced to limit the spread of the virus and
peoples’ interactions. Therefore, these precautions have unexpected effects on the
multinational supply chains, interrupting the companies’ activities, and decreasing revenues
(Grida et al.,2020). International trade globally is likely to be impacted negatively because of
the multidimensional impacts on the supply chain alongside other economic and financial
factors (Dontoh et al.,2020). After the spread of the virus, various companies across the world
have fallen irrespective of their size while those depending on inputs from China have started
contracting because of the global economic activities. This pandemic crisis has affected supply
chains disrupting economic sustainability, therefore, reducing the performance of many
international businesses (Guan et al., 2020). The goal of this study is therefore to understand
the risk brought out by Covid-19, the response, and the challenges that come with the
implementation of strategies. International business reacts to such pandemic by devising
strategies that favor their business to meet their objectives (Evenett, 2020). International trade
looks more at the supply chain because of the core effects it brings to the economy as well as
policies surrounding exploring subsidies.

Most scholars have focused their research on supply chain disruption because of the extreme
impact of COVID-19 on them. Therefore, since 2020 many articles have been published on
supply chain disruptions (Chowdhury and Paul,2020, Iyengar et al.,2020). Supply chains of many
industries have been facing negative impacts, especially during various epidemics in the world.
However, covid-19 has been more severe, classified, and spreading at an alarming rate
compared to 2003 SARS and the 2009 epidemic of H1N1 (Koonin, 2020). Subsequently, there
was a hike in prices for imported products influenced by the supply chain markets and labor
shortages. Additionally, impacts brought by these financial challenges brought negative effects
on international trade. It is estimated that world trade will decline by approximately 15 and
30% because of the world crisis that was brought about by COVID-19 in 2020 (WTO, 2020). On
the other hand, further studies will make us conclude that globalization alone is not an
indicator of progress because we have other long-standing fears caused by pandemics that hit
the world hard. The supply chain plays a major role in international business by reducing
manufacturing costs due to geographical distances and comparative advantages, this was
greatly affected leading to an accelerated inflation rate increase because of the high cost of
goods.

Systematic literature will be significant to explain the current state and future research to
ensure the supply chain management can be managed appropriately with the effects of this
pandemic (Tranfield et al.,2003). Consequently, we summarize here the findings of published
articles and recommend research agendas so that practitioners and policymakers, and firms can
gain a deeper understanding of how to approach the impacts of the pandemic. We address the
following questions in this study to advance the literature on supply chains and international
trade.

1. The COVID-19 pandemic is a major theme and topic in the disruption of the supply chain and
international trade. What do they include?

2. Is there a potential for future research on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply
chains and international trade?

Our studies focus on the published articles with a correlation to the impacts of the COVID-19 on
the supply chains and international trade as it is extraordinary to their disruptions
(Ivanov,2020a, Ivanov and Dolgui,2020a). This study seeks to get in-depth knowledge of the
effects of covid-19 on supply chain and international business. Every other business performs
its activities through designing, producing, marketing, and delivering its products through the
supply chain (Porters, 1985, p.36). A combination of these activities is needed for better
performance and the success of the proposition for the business. The pandemic disrupted the
flow of business in many countries through travel restrictions meaning most international
trades could neither connect nor source products from their foreign partners of trade. This
study will focus on the impacts and the disruptions of the supply chain on international trade
especially using various structures

such as density, brand value, and structures of the companies (Greening & Rutherford, 2011).
To enhance our findings and to outline unique research opportunities, we have also reviewed
the literature about prior epidemic outbreaks and disturbances. Additionally, this paper also
examines the methodologies, context, and theoretical lenses used in the studies of coronavirus
within the supply chain and international trade. Hopefully, this study might be useful in
deciding on the appropriate methodology and context when doing future research.

This paper is structured as follows: Section 2 constitutes a literature review on COVID-19 and its
impact on the supply chain and international trade. Section 3 is composed of the definitions
and methods that make the proposed framework. Section 4 is to apply the proposed
framework for analysis and evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on the supply chain and
international trade. Section 5 is the managerial assumptions of the study. Whereas section 6 is
the conclusion of the article.

Supply chain risks systematic literature review

Covid 19 has caused many countries to rethink how to adjust to the supply chain because of risk
factors such as increased trade wars, changes in international trades, sustainability issues,
terrorism, and calamities among others. Lockdown temporarily stopped or disrupted the flow
of supply chains especially the supply of raw materials, finished goods, and manufacturing
(Arriola et al., 2020). The low diversity of supply in some items saw the increase in prices of
some items due to global disruption globally. A good example of this is line telephone
equipment which a quarter of it is supplied by China, Vietnam, and Korea. Most of the firms do
not have other alternatives in case of shortage or when supply is fragile in the market (M. Pillai,
2003, pp. 357-376). Disruption from the global supply chain leads to many adverse effects that
all international business feels the impact, especially in terms of maintaining operational
efficiency. These will happen due to the political instability in some countries, volatility of the
market, and demand and supply changes caused by locative inefficiency. Therefore, an effective
model must be designed to help present this problem occurring through data aggression and
design (Shah et al., 2011).

Additionally, there is the risk that comes with outsourcing raw materials and other products to
overseas countries. From the time when covid-19 was reported, most of the flights were
cancelled rendering raw materials to be scarce, inflation was also reported in many countries
making them very expensive to acquire. Political factors such as political instability increase the
risk of supply and the chain causing the change in business strategies and the general business.
Social uncertainties that hinder the flow of the supply chain include cultural issues, language
differences, religion, and technology affecting the flow of goods and services, (Bhattacharyya et
al., 2010). The global chain risks led to the diversification of risks to other countries as a
substitute for China though it accounts for 60% of
all the export goods. Most of the productions were moved to Vietnam and México which
increased the production from 9% to 12% in 2019 at the expense of China which posed supply
disruptions (Husseini et al., 2010, pp. 89-112).

Other factors that were exposed due to the vulnerability include the disruption of world food
chains that rendered almost 265 million people hungry according to the World Food Program
(WFP). All these caused by supply chain risk led to the reduction of global incomes and wealth
reducing the consumption rate by 52%. This means that global purchasing power fell because of
the increased demand for food (OECD, 2020). Following job losses, micro levels also suffered.
There was a reduction in income and a decline in business activities, which had a direct impact
on the supply chain. Some distribution companies have had to raise delivery charges to cover
losses such as low food deliveries. In the wake of the pandemic, imports and exports were
delayed at ports since most staff were restricted from working to reduce exposure risk and
social distancing measures were in place.

There are many ways that natural calamities affect the supply chain. For example, Thailand’s
flooding caused the washing away of all the digital offices in 2011. As a result, Thailand
produces a quarter of all hard disks worldwide, disrupting the flow of goods.  Following the
floods, it took another full year for the economy to recover. This affected the flow of
computers. This explains how supply chain risks have an impact on international business,
which is substantial (Wedawatta et al., 2011). Several manufacturing firms were unable to
obtain raw materials for their products because of the disruption of infrastructure.
Approximately 550,000 businesses suffered losses and damages during the flood, estimated at
71.1 billion each month. The process resulted in the loss of 2 million jobs, leaving 2.32 million
jobless (Thai Business Council, 2011).

Globalization of the supply chain has generally exposed many international firms to disaster
because a calamity in one area will affect a firm in other geographical areas and other locations.
As a result of outsourcing to international companies, there is a dependency on a country's
resources in the sense that a shortage will affect most of them. Meaning disruption of one
country affects the global chain therefore, due to the same distribution links operations get
stalled or even fail. Proper substitutes of suppliers become a problem in the process leading to
negative impact and supply chain disruption.

A recovery plan is very important to employ a balanced approach that can look for alternative
raw materials to cushion them during unpredicted disasters. There are still gaps in the supply
chain which must be addressed and controlled (Mason, 2006). A disaster or a pandemic that
has already hit a certain country has a high chance of repeating itself in the future in another
form and hence supply chain must be diversified. Centralized systems must be avoided
however the market could be unpredictable.
Methodology (Reporting)

Search strategy

In this paper review, we used a systematic literature review (SLR) to analyse my research. This is
because SLR is systematic and rigorous (Cooper et al., 2018). The main research database used
is Scopus to extract all the articles that will be used in the study. The search term used is Covid-
19 and Coronavirus to help in the search of our documents results. The subject area to be
considered in our search include medicine, social science, business management and
accounting, economics, econometrics and finance, arts, and humanities. The documents used
will only be limited to articles, books, reviews, and book chapters. The search terms were
around the key terms of coronavirus, Covid-19, and Covid. With all these searches ranging
between the years 2008-2021, this is a new term and therefore most of the articles have not
researched much about the virus unlike other epidemics in the past that had occurred. The two
well-established search engines contained all the articles that were natural, well established,
and available in linguistics to the study. It gave a wider picture of arguments to be used through
analysis samples and aligning them to the modern terms. The diagram below is the summary; -
Search criteria
Search in Search results 96,848
keywords; covid-19,
scopus
covid, supply chain

Filter by year from Filter by reading

abstract and title Excluded
between 2008-
Relevant as well as 37,648
2021. Remaining
articles introduction
59,200

Excluded
53,491

Excluded Total articles

Removed
journals and for analysis;
duplication
papers 5144 39
349
Selection criteria

The research will focus mainly on the existing literature about covid-19 in the field of business
and economics, general business management and accounting, strategy and management, and
biological science. However, the research will narrow down into general business management,
business, and economics, and how it affects international business. The year of research is
between; 2008 and 2021 and will include all the countries such as the UK, China, USA, India,
Australia, and France. Further analysis of Covid-19 from the remaining articles investigated the
methodologies used and closely related fields of study on how the supply chain has been
affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The themes and methodologies explored through the
PRISMA framework will also enable future research and consideration (Tranfield et al., 2003,
pp.207-222). Different articles in the list will be classified into the subjects that will be
considered. Example from the figure below; -
At this point we got 96,848 which we then excluded and narrowed down our search by going
through abstracts that did not focus on how Covid-19 impacted the supply chain in
international business, this left only 39 documents available from the Scopus database. Our
further study focused on the supply chain and how it was affected by the covid-19 pandemic.
The search had some duplicated articles in the process, and we identified 5 of them, we
excluded and used the remaining for our study. The criteria for this decision include the
standard design of a high-quality compatible corpus of different languages. this section enables
the researcher to make a comprehensive subject that will only be limited to covid-19 and touch
on social science because it affects doing business. The title of our study is spread in the table
below; -

Source title No of
articles
COVID-19 and Construction: Impact Analysis on Construction Performance 1
during Two Infection Waves in Victoria, Australia
Sickle cell disease and COVID-19 in pregnant women 1

Tracer Pharmaceuticals Availability and Distribution Trends Before and During 1

the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Comparative Study
Dry heat sterilization as a method to recycle N95 respirator masks: The 1
importance of fit
Implementation of an Extraction-Free COVID Real-Time PCR Workflow in a 1
Pediatric Hospital Setting
A dynamic risk assessment model to assess the impact of the coronavirus 1
(COVID-19) on the sustainability of the biomass supply chain: A case study of a
U.S. biofuel industry
A year following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: Existing challenges and 1
ways the food industry has been impacted
The impact of COVID-19 infection on hip fractures 30-day mortality 1
Assessment of humoral responses in COVID-19 using various quantitative 1
antibody tests
Innovation in a Time of Crisis: A Systematic Review of Three-Dimensional 1
Printing in the COVID-19 Pandemic
COVID-19: Chittagong Port and aftermath 1
Development strategy of SMEs in the new normal era of coronavirus disease 1
2019 (COVID-19): A literature review
Farm diversification is a potential success factor for small-scale farmers 1
constrained by COVID-related lockdown. Contributions from a survey
 conducted in four European countries during the first wave of COVID-19
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on apple orchards in Europe 1
Effects of COVID-19 on the Italian agri-food supply and value chains 1
The resilience of meat supply chains during and after the covid-19 crisis 1
The impact of COVID-19 on transfusion-dependent thalassemia patients of 1
Karachi, Pakistan: A single-center experience [L'impact du COVID-19 sur les
patients atteints de thalassémie transfusionnelle dépendante de Karachi,
au Pakistan : une expérience dans un seul centre]
Now is the time to press the reset button: Helping India's companies to become 1
more resilient and effective in overcoming the impacts of COVID-19, climate
changes, and other crises
Global supply chains after COVID-19: the end of the road for neoliberal 1
globalisation?
Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Management of Blood Supply and 1
Demand in Turkey [COVID-19 Pandemisinin Türkiye'deki Kan Kaynak ve
İhtiyacı Üzerine Etkisi]
Operational challenges during a pandemic: an investigation in the electronics 1
industry
COVID-19 and Its Global Economic Impact 1
From Testing to Decision-Making: A Data-Driven Analytics COVID-19 Response 1
Integrated 3D printing solution to mitigate shortages of airway consumables 1
and personal protective equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic
COVID-19 drives consumer behaviour and agro-food markets towards healthier 1
and more sustainable patterns
COVID-19's limited impact on drug shortages in Canada 1
COVID-19: Outcomes for Global Supply Chains 1
Viral respiratory infections in very low birth weight infants at neonatal intensive 1
care unit: Prospective observational study
The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a 1
mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19

Quality assessment

To ensure the quality of the article, all the articles used were original to ensure that the article
will contain accurate information and its output efficiency that will be acceptable to the
readers. All articles that were duplicated were deleted from the list. The quality assessment
tool used is PRISMA which helps improve the systematic research in methodological studies and
ensures quality reporting. The articles were limited to the English language only and the others
were excluded from the list of research. In summary, data was extracted from the 29 articles
that remained using a specific quality and consisted of the following characteristics.

- All published articles range from 2008 to 2021

- The researched articles are from all countries with n major limitations.
- Extracted papers were only from the English language from the general business
management artless, business and economics, and social science.
- All articles are from original articles and review papers for answering evaluation
questions.

Literature review

The covid-19 impact on international trade has been catalogued as the most incipient factor
that can happen to any economy. Despite data being scarce because of the nature of the
pandemic and restricted to countries, it has tried to explore the impact and what must be done
in the long run to save it from further spread. For the case of Spain, the impact was great
especially between January and July 2020, after the introduction of containment measures it
reduced exports in the country compared to imports that flowed however with some
disruptions. There are many scenarios in which covid-19 affected the economy either directly or
indirectly depending on the burden of the disease. An example is the loss of jobs land the direct
expenditure on medical equipment by the people.

Our main analysis will rely on secondary research for opinions and analysis as our main
investigation of the impacts of covid-19 on supply chain and international business. More
specifically, the perspective will provide and use 12 articles in response to this pandemic. The
preferred opinion use is because of the great impact that led on the economy considering the
nature of the pandemic that still has little data and time used to analyse them. Nevertheless,
further research will be required to understand better the challenges and how companies can
cushion themselves in addressing this pandemic, especially the strategies employed. The total
articles of 39 that had been categorized are reviewed to demonstrate real-time structural
actors affecting the supply chain among theoretical modelling (Kargar et al., 2020).

Research on supply chains and covid-19

Risk factors from; political, social, and economic cause indefinite disruption and uncertainty in
an economy especially the global supply chain, (Scheibe & Blackhurst, 2018). This crisis is not
new, supply chains of international trade are vulnerable to endemic and pandemics, they have
been exposed to past H1N1 and Ebola that occurred between 2009 and 2014 (Armani et al.,
2020). But covid-19 is on a different level, because of lockdown and restricted way of living. The
pandemic spread to many countries disrupting the supply chain and negatively impacting the
international labour supply which decreased because of production reduction (Espitia et al.,
2021). The figure below will illustrate the effects on enterprise between 7 countries of UK,
France, Italy, Australia, Belgium, China, and Japan collected by the World Bank in 2020. It used
several characteristics of export status, a region in which the firm is located, liquidity, and
experience in the supply.

share of frims that experienced decreased in liquidity

Series 3
share of firm experiencing decreased supply of inputs Series 2
Series 1

shares of frims decreased demand for produvts and

services

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Source: UNCTAD, based on data from Enterprise Surveys (http://www.enterprisesurveys.org).

The Chinese supply chain was under pressure (Chatterjee, 2020). Global concerns were majorly
caused by several clinical products that were urgently required at that time such as personal
protection equipment. Contingency plans are hence required to address the health care supply
chain because of its impact on the international business, which is vital, (Rowan & Laffey, 2020).
The progress made by globalization has been exposed after 30 years even uncovering the
instability between USA and China and their trading system. International business requires
survival and extraordinary resilience in the supply chain network. The large-scale risk gives the
scope that considers decision making, it accesses the performance required to prepare
companies in cushioning potential disruptions and losses in the surrounding environment
(Ivanov & Dolgui, 2020a, b).
The figure below illustrates how the supply chain affected the whole economy, our case study
will consider what caused disruptions of the supply chain on international business, the
challenges associated with it, and the trends that followed it thereafter. Reactions to the
pandemic enabled the government to react to confront the pandemic because of fluctuation in
demand and supply in various countries.
Figure; proportional effects of covid-19 on the economy

Supply chain activities and demand volatility from government actions led to restricted
movement of goods, closure of several factories, suspended transport, border restrictions, and
travel bans causing shortages to supply. International supply chains connected to China, the
USA, and Europe were mostly affected because of an unprecedented spike immediately first
cases were reported, and there was panic supply because of price fluctuation and supply which
was now becoming limited. Order congestion, delays, vulnerability, shocks, expiry, and the
limited stock became massive both online and offline. The challenges shown in the figure were
out of hand because there was no immediate solution to those problems. Many countries
however acted by introducing the strict movement of people through; social distancing, mask-
wearing, and quarantines for travellers among others. The main challenge brought by this
pandemic is the flow of goods, supply chain disruption, and majorly economic panic.

Another sample of studies is evident from a large sample of countries, especially from the EU
members. Using the bilateral monthly trade between 2017 and 2020, a framework is
established to highlight the supply chain after covid-19 shocks, (Kejzar & Velic, 2020, pp.222-
244). The trade cost reflected the struggle that international business is going through about
covid-19 measures. Grounding of passenger planes and forced quarantine disrupted air
transport leading to cargo changes (Van Assche, 2020). Parts were not left behind, vessels and
crew changes meant that some goods became perishable in the process. Some 75 countries
restricted the exportation of medical and health items such as face masks, medical ventilators,
and antibodies so that they could use internally, (Golan et al., 2020). USA and China reignited
their war on trade because of supremacy while Japanese companies were willing to provide
subsiding orders to satisfy the market and recharge goods that could both satisfy China and
Japan.

The covid-19 has positively impacted the advancement of technology through the amplification
of communication and infrastructure (Yuen et al., 2001). From the local point of view, planned
face-to-face meetings were postponed and, in most cases, collaborated to integrate digital
forms of communication which enabled the advancement of easy forms of communication. The
impact on other intangibles will continue depending on how long the pandemic will last. The
whole question is the struggle by many countries leaving structural flows not able to meet
because of policy failure evaluating disrupted value chains. However, it is argued that the
shortage of medical equipment is a policy failure because of existing policy in the supply chain,
(Craihead et al., 2020). The other side of the global supply chain has caused vulnerability of
informal workers since they became very vulnerable to the pandemic when it affected the
economy. For many years, the supply chain has been used in developing countries as an act of
intermediary in ensuring that the demand for goods is met. But after the spread of the
pandemic, the vulnerable group was the first to be hardly hit by the economic downturn.
Millions of workers from the informal sector have been rendered jobless and hungry because
they live from hand to mouth with the government having limited rescue plans, (Queiroz et al.,
2020).

Criscuolo and Timmis (2017) suggest how supply chain preparedness is important in shock
absorption especially in microeconomics in countries that were affected. Intermediate input
linkages of one part of the supply chain cause disruption entirely in all the countries that
depend on that supply. An example of how the entire production network was affected is the
2016 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan which led to the closure of a US auto plant later that year
(Criscuolo & Timmis, 2017). The connection between countries and nations led to risk in the
entire global value chain. There must therefore be a production network to help cushion such
crises through corporate offshoring where firms outsource another production process to
others to curb losses when a crisis happens. It should be done entirely by having subsidiaries
that are foreign as well as using the arm’s length.

The virus outbreak is evident in our countries of study through trade, capital flows, and changes
to the global market. There were labour shocks in various countries globally from the table
below immediately after the first case was reported.

Scenarios Countries Severity Case fatality Nature of Other

affected rate-china shock countries
1 China Low 2% Temporary Risk
2 China Mid 2.5% Temporary Risk
3 China High 3.0% Temporary Risk
4 Global Low 2% Temporary All
5 Global Mid 2.5% Temporary All
6 Global High 3% Temporary All
7 Global Low 2% Permanent All

Source: WTO 2020

The labour supply was affected due to infection in mortality in the affected families. This was
compounded by severe production reduction leading to changes in policy such as office work
employees working in shifts because of maintenance of social distance in the office (Leite et al.,
2020). Because of these, employees are not able to work full time leading to a shortage in the
labour force. Limited operations in the factory meant that the supply of goods and services was
disrupted because of impairment and closure of some units when delivering goods (Dente &
Hashimoto, 2020). The supply chain, therefore, must find the smooth flow of its products to
ensure the proximity of all its raw materials and in preparation for the unpredictable future.

The pandemic is expected to continue indefinitely, a lot will be learned in the crisis because
strategies must be modified to maintain the production and flow of raw materials between
countries. Potential threats must be addressed and even with the increase of globalisation, the
supply chain has led to the exposure of risks, especially during such natural disasters affecting
different geographical locations. Offshore and outsourcing between different countries
increased dependency on the supply of different goods sometimes leading to operational
failure when one of its parts becomes dysfunctional. Supply chain disruption increased risk
during the covid-19, especially in those that adopted ‘just in time’ practice leading to a
suspension in supply and shortages of raw materials, (Golan et al., 2020). However, shocks
were immediately put in place facilitating the transition that brought a lifeline to the economy
again. This has become very necessary because of all the pandemics that have ever happened,
covid-19 has been severe to the supply chain more than any other (Queiroz et al., 2020).

Potential supply chain challenges in the pandemic

The challenges that international companies face due to the covid-19 outbreak are different
especially based on geographical positions, preparedness for pandemics, and their resilience in
the supply chain (Rizou et al., 2020). An example is India which has a lot of manufacturing hubs
that distribute across the world because of its population as well as being the country that was
adversely affected by the pandemic (Guardian, 2021). The investigation proved that to mitigate
all these challenges, it is important to develop a resilient supply chain that can sustain difficult
times, (Craighead et al., 2020). Golan et al., 2020 observed that during the pandemics supply
chain faced large shortcomings through a lack of preparedness, response plans, and the next
course of action. Our systematic literature review of various articles found that companies must
adapt to such pandemics through; digitization, and designing supply chains in international
trade, (Belhadia et al., 2020). However, the real mitigation measure that must be implemented
is missing from these articles because of the nature of the pandemic is missing from most of the
articles. Some authors only suggest the need to take a fresh look at the current supply chain
and improve to avoid disruptions in the future, (Choi et al., 2021). The novel coronavirus has
brought the need to change the environment in terms of dynamics and way of living.

Impacts on supply chain network

The results showed that the firms are already facing challenges due to the disruption of supply
and demand in part of the logistics. The structure of the supply chain is more vulnerable to the
covid-19 cutting short all activities. This shows how firms need to develop capabilities that
improve their resilience when a pandemic breaks out in the future. Continuity of many forms is
determined by a shortage of materials, availability of chain products, and the transport that
ensures they all reach their destination. During the post-pandemic regime, it will be necessary
for firms to put strategies that reshape the sourcing of the supply chain, (Ivanov & Dolgui,
2020a). It will be necessary to substitute materials and extent possible partnerships with
vendors to ensure continuity of raw materials supply (Sarkis et al., 2020). Many of the sectors
were hit hard especially automatic and industrial products which could no longer move to their
various destinations. Many industries in factory settings forced their employees to work from
home as a requirement for physical spacing necessitating technology in their high-tech activities
(Golan et al., 2020). The impact also showed that big changes must be administered on their
horizon, cost optimization will have to be a more integrated priority and one that can connect
many players. This means a connection for the future supply chain in planning, procurement,
manufacturing, and logistics using technology to assure implementation of the supply chain
globally. Considering the micro-level, covid-19 led to job losses, reduction of income, business
activities decline, and loss of other businesses. Many households adjusted their spending
affecting the performance of the supply chain of many countries.

Sustainability and resilience

The supply chain must be modified to become sustainable after this pandemic, most literature
deal with the need to; localise the supply chain, change behaviour, and transition how we do
business, (Sarkis et al., 2020, pp.3-4). Additionally, there must be social sustainability to ensure
that structures of workers and day-to-day activities are transitioned to enable continuity.
Rebuilding the supply chain should be practical and connected to avoid losses in inventory and
deal with shortages effectively. It’s an opportunity to rebuild this sector to deal with the
negative impacts it brings to the economy, (Bodenheimer & Leidenberger, 2020). All these
papers touched on the challenges brought about by covid-19 in terms of technology and
resilience that must be built. The topic is still young and therefore further research must be
done to unlock further content on the coronavirus pandemic and the impact on supply chains.

Data findings and analysis

Most of the selected articles unlocked optimization content of the causes and prevention
measures taken by various countries as well as their impact. The case Ivanov’s paper (2020a)
addressed the impact of covid-19 on the supply chain in detail using various simulation
techniques. There was both negative and positive effect on the pandemic, but serious
disruption affected companies at 57%, and in these 17% were positive while 5.5% were
negative (Free & Hecimoric, 2021, pp.58-84). Further research showed that, by use of a model
framework, the supply chain requires a consistent supply that must satisfy the demand. When
the pandemic spread, measures were taken but supply continued to decrease with the demand
increasing because production was stopped, (Espitia et al., 2021). Looking at the negative
impact of covid-19 on 28 countries it shows that the most affected sector is trade because of
decreased global value chain participation especially from June 2020 onwards, (Hayakawa &
Kohei, 2021). However, differences will be observed in different countries due to income (high,
middle, and low) the composition of trade costs, and means of transport. Low-income earners
countries were affected by services more because, after the lockdown, there was little to be
focused on at home, (Golan et al., 2020). Therefore, the effects of covid-19 were responded to
differently by countries depending on their GDP and income level. These theses further
inquiries the niche covid-19 concerning the global supply chain which unfolded naturally in the
real world. The design mostly is determined by findings that are ongoing and still unpredictable.

Findings indicate that after China reported its cases which eventually spread to the entire
world, most international businesses-initiated ways of discussing the crisis to find solutions.
They communicated with their suppliers to find ways of preventing the virus from further
spreading since it was affecting the supply chain largely. Economic support became different in
many countries and the economy remained stable after august 2020, high income countries
granted support to their population compared to the other low-income nations. Low and
middle-income countries relaxed their containment measures after April 2021 while high
income stayed on until July 2021. The difference between the above is because of the
availability of resources that were used to control and mitigate the pandemic (Kumar et al.,
2020).

Challenges

Due to the prominent challenge, most of the articles verified that supply chain disruption is
affected by factors such as delays because of rerouting, overstocking leading to an uncertain
future, and an inconsistent supply chain. It is also bound to be consistent because of the
current market volatility, constraints in the supply chain, and changes in demand (Kumar, et al.,
2020). Manufacturing is the core engine of any economy, but after the start of the pandemic
production mix changed drastically because of inconsistent supply, and some companies were
forced to shut down to stay afloat. Transportation was also a prominent challenge because of
its importance as it connects everyone to the market, (Bloomerg, 2020). For example, the
unavailability of vehicles to transport goods to the destination becomes a major problem in that
raw materials will not be delivered for finished goods. Total lockdown of India affected the
delivery of vehicles which severely caused the scarcity until when it was called off (Bloomberg,
2020). Statistics show that only 15% of the trucks were available to carry goods to the critical
destination. The above challenge led to warehouse issues and scarce working capital in the
manufacturing sector. Delivery delays were a result of inadequate and ineffective means of
transport in the long run. This is a direct consequence of disrupted supply chains, labour issues,
and transport challenges (Hippold, 2020). Lockdown in many countries and cities led to
rerouting leading to delays in the delivery of goods. All this was a big challenge that delayed the
delivery of goods and services hence disrupting operations of the supply chain internationally.

Causal Factors influencing supply chain

Scarcity of labour is the most causal factor that affects the flow of the supply chain because of
disruption in production. A lot of workers travelled back to their village when covid-19 started
spreading at an alarming rate. The reason was because of lockdown and movement restrictions;
therefore, most of the industries were left with no one to provide labour, (Economist, 2020). It
was also attributed to loss of employment and eventual reduction of wages. This reaffirms that
labour scarcity affects the functioning of the supply chain.

Material scarcity impacted the flow of goods negatively especially the movement of raw
materials because of the volatility in the market supply (Queiroz et al., 2020). Lockdown in
some countries meant that raw materials could not reach various destinations on time; hence
there was disrupted continuity of operations and material supply. It led to many other factors
such as the rerouting of transportation which will take a lot of time because of movement, the
market will experience excess demand causing prices to change significantly.

One of the most significant findings is that supply chain disruption affected manufacturing, the
supply chain sector, demand for products, and the people who are affected. After the shutdown
of some factories especially in China and India, those who relied on plant Parts were majorly
affected, Kumar et al., 2020). European and American industries that were so reliant on China
were affected in terms of production due to the temporary transport hitches (Zhu et al., 2020).
This was from mid-March 2020 considering that most of these plant industries were now
working at 50% capacity. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), Chinese
manufacturers could only allow 56% of normal staff (Ivanov, 2020). This slowed production
even in the domestic supply chain due to the spread of covid-19. Similar challenges were felt all
over the west when the virus got worse making it difficult to restart operations and resume a
normal workforce.

Based on further analysis of the sample, showed that disruption of coronavirus is because of
overreliance on cost-effective methods in designing supply chain, (De Angelis, 2020). It is also
noted that globalization has brought a lot of risks, over-reliance on Chinese supply, and a lack of
flexibility in the market. China being the first country to report covid-19 it became difficult for
many other countries that depended on their products (Lin & Lanng, 2020). The lesson evident
in this statement is the consequences of prioritizing cost efficiency instead of ensuring
interconnectivity in the supply chain and being prepared to adjust to the disruptions that come
along, (Ivanov & Das, 2020). The coronavirus crisis taught many managers across the world that
there should be a balance in the supply chain while articulating preparedness, resilience, and
responding when caught unaware, (Zhu et al., 2020). The manufacturing process had to stop
especially in China due to the transport logistics and other disruptions. The extensive literature
review is mainly concerned with discussing the market-driven solutions and applications of
technology as part of implementing resilience in the international global supply. When all the
layers of the supply chain are impacted, it makes the magnitude very complex.

Other findings showed that most articles in our study show different types of the supply chain
to understand the very critical disruption (Fartaj et al., 2020). Other natural and man-made
disruptions could occur affecting the supply chain such as cyclones, floods, terrorism, and
earthquake among others. The general challenge is usually fluctuation of the exchange rate,
change in prices, and export and import restrictions which affect the entire economy. It is not
possible to predict such calamities and therefore difficult for the supply chain to act at its
appropriate time. Agility must therefore be added to the available data to predict how supply
chain disruption occurs, (Brintrupet et al., 2020).

Further analysis shows that the extent of disruption depends on the country and the industry in
terms of how it affects the supply chain. Recent studies researched that transportation
disruption affected Bangladesh; on one hand, its pharmaceuticals industry and on the other
automotive (Querioz et al., 2020). Furthermore, the observations were that the disruptions
mostly affected areas of the supply chain in terms of supply, demand, and production.
Moreover, it was noted that the disturbances in the supply chain decrease shareholder value
and return including operating income and return (Ivanov et al., 2020).

Conclusion and future research

This study assessed and analysed the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the supply chain
activities in international business using exclusive secondary materials and logistics supply
press. Because of this, the answers may not be conclusive for the research question. However,
it offers several indications. Consequently, it is impossible to claim that the international supply
chain has now become disaster-proof and risk-proof. Nevertheless, a proper analysis of manual
research will provide further details to our research questions. Hopefully, this will help guide
future research to obtain more unbiased data that can be specifically analysed. Further
contributions will consist in introducing a novel methodology that combines SLR and network
analysis to examine supply chain effects on already published articles. Using this methodology,
we will enhance and explore a corpus of literature on supply chain-related articles and explicitly
define emerging developments that explore changing dynamics in future pandemics. Among
the articles in the SLR, a large number used quantitative methods to demonstrate how society
is enhancing research into Coronavirus and its connections to supply chain performance.

We should look at how supply chains will respond during and after a pandemic, focusing on the
viability of products as an assurance of their integration of resilience and adaptation to
pandemics. Transportation networks and reduction in substitutes make global supply chains
vulnerable. Pandemics destabilize firms by weakening their financial muscles, disrupting supply,
and increasing unexpected spending. The impact of this could be seen through price
fluctuations, which accelerated inflation rates of goods, making them extremely expensive.
Considering the unpredictable nature of pandemics, multinational companies should invest in
supply chain strategies that will ensure their success in bringing the best out of the global
market. By the code, COVID-19 rendered millions of people in the informal sector to abject
poverty because companies cut costs, as well as most of them, were closed. This was in part
because of revenue shortfalls, which affected budget priorities.

Recommendations

Based on our findings, international businesses must put in place supply chain resilience due to
the pandemic. Traditional methods are at risk because they cannot tackle long-term disruptions
when a pandemic occurs, (Ivanov et al., 2018, p. 3359). We call for a new set of approaches that
improve the existing ones based on categories that the supply chain has proposed. The
monitoring of inventory is intended to facilitate the flow of products to avoid shortages. The
control theory is a scheme that has proven to be successful in controlling supply chain
disruptions and ensuring resilience through its application (Ivanov & Dolgui, 2019, pp. 15-16).
The management of inventories, sourcing, and plants is optimised in the event of a pandemic to
maintain the demand and supply of goods, and many international companies use this
approach because required resources can be configured both internally and externally. The
shortage of labour supply will vary from one region to another; therefore, disruptions will differ
from one to another.

In addition, ensure to find a balance between risk factors and effectiveness when dealing with
an international supply chain. This provides enhancement when disaster comes especially when
considering sourcing of materials in terms of production cost. As well as having many suppliers
in different locations, this is important to minimize transaction costs; reducing risk is less
harmful when it is balanced (Paul et al., 2019, p. 299). Further measures such as shortening the
supply chain while increasing their visibility using entry modes like partnerships. There is a need
to access the vulnerability of the firm to develop mitigation measures and transfer risks.
Network visibility is also critical in enhancing sub-tier risks to enable sharing of vital information
and the general focus of long-term continuity in the event of unforeseen disruptions. To protect
the interests of investors, governments must ensure proper management of the supply chain.
This can be done through policy enactment that facilitates supply chain resilience and disaster
management which might provide a long-lasting resolution for the international firms (Dolgui et
al., 2020). Moreover, countries that have previously suffered from pandemics such as tsunamis
and earthquakes have a higher chance of being affected again. Therefore, countries that were
most affected by the pandemic must diversify because there is a likelihood of a reoccurrence in
the future. Other studies recommended the improvement of IT in the supply chain
departments. As it is becoming increasingly popular for customers to receive services (door-to-
door delivery) at home to save time and improve recovery rates (Ivanov & Dolgui, 2020b, pp.
2904-2915).

Kabrin's argument on the impact of COVID-19 on the economy shows that changes are
necessary. The globalisation of business has brought long-standing ease of doing business;
however, it needs to be balanced by making it more inclusive. The solution is to build global
resilience by building sovereignty and integrating the global supply chain for sustainability
(Kobrin, 2020). Therefore, clear, and strong policies are required to underpin the flow of supply
in the supply chain internationally, and countries must adhere to trade agreements to take
trade measures during this crisis. Global supply chains must flow for essential goods to avoid
shortages and perishability. It is paramount that the government assists medical professionals
in their research on covid-19 to achieve success in a short period, (Dolgui et al., 2018, p. 414-
430). On the other hand, be willing to spend more on border checks to minimize time wastage
as well as devise means for reducing physical contact between officials at border points and
cargo points. The shortages it creates in the agricultural sector and food products make it
necessary for most European countries to rethink export restrictions on essential goods and
medical equipment. Consequently, governments must find immediate solutions as well as long-
term solutions (Evenett, 2020).

Managers must monitor supply continuously, as recovery plans are unknown. Therefore,
resilience must be composed of responsiveness, preparedness, and recovery. Human capital
and production deficits must be repaired by flexible strategies that help streamline their
systems, particularly in manufacturing, which is categorized into three categories: modelling,
technology, and organizational, (Sarkis et al., 2020). Although the world might not remain the
same, being resilient alone will not be enough unless you're able to deal with diversity and
viability. The prevention of market collapsibility is therefore achieved by securing goods and
services that will require constant adaptability and transformation in the face of a resilient
supply chain (Ivanov, 2020b). Reducing vulnerabilities can also contribute to reducing
complexity and increasing transparency. It is attributed to the improvement of the supply chain
structure of its organizational and informational management. Businesses should also strive to
meet their present needs without compromising their future supply chain needs by establishing
a triple bottom line. Finally, we need to address the economic, environmental, and social
implications of a sustainable supply chain.

Conflict of interest

The research was conducted without any financial relationship or any other potential conflicts
of interest.

References

Armani, A. M., Hurt D. E., Hwang D., McCarthy M. C. and Scholtz A., (2020), “Low‐tech solutions
for the COVID‐19 supply chain crisis”. Nature Reviews Materials, 5: 403–406.

Belhadi A, Kamble S, Jabbour CJC, Gunasekaran A, Ndubisi NO, Venkatesh M (2020)

Manufacturing and service supply chain resilience to the COVID-19 outbreak: Lessons learned
from the automobile and airline industries. Technol Forecast Soc Change 163:120447.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120447

Bloomberg (2020). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-23/wuhan-s-return-

to-life-temperature-checks-and-constant-anxiety.

Choi TY, Rogers D, Vakil B (2020) Coronavirus Is a Wake-Up Call for Supply Chain Management.
Harv Bus Rev.

Cooper, A. Booth, J. Varley-Campbell, N. Britten, R. Garside (2018). Defining the process to

literature searching in systematic reviews: a literature review of guidance and supporting
studies
Craighead C.W., Ketchen D.J., Jr, Darby J.L. Pandemics, and supply chain management research:
Toward a theoretical toolbox. Decision Sciences. 2020 doi: 10.1111/deci.12468.

De Lucio J, Minguez R, Minondo A, Requena F, (2020). The impact of COVID-19 containment

measures on Trade. Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia. WP 2101.

Dente S.M.R., Hashimoto S. COVID-19 (2020): A pandemic with positive and negative outcomes
on resource and waste flows and stocks. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. ;161.
DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104979

Dolgui A, Ivanov D, Sokolov B (2018) Ripple effect in the supply chain: an analysis and recent
literature. Int J Prod Res 56(1–2):414–430
Dolgui, A., Ivanov, D., & Sokolov, B. (2018). Ripple effect in the supply chain: An analysis and
recent literature. International Journal of Production Research,56(1–2), 414–430.

Dolgui, A., Ivanov, D., & Sokolov, B. (2020). Reconfigurable supply chain: The X-network.
International Journal of Production Research.

Espitia A, Mattoo A, Rocha N, Ruta M, Winkler D., (2021). Pandemic Trade: Covid‐19, Remote
Work and Global Value Chains. The World Economy. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13117

Evenett, S. (2020), “Tackling COVID-19 Together”, Global Trade Alert, University of St. Gallen,
Switzerland, https://www.globaltradealert.org/reports (Accessed on 7 May 2022)

Free, C. and Hecimovic A., (2021), “Global supply chains after COVID‐19: The end of the road for
neoliberal globalisation?” Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 34: 58–84.

Golan M.S., Jernegan L.H., Linkov I. (2020) Trends and applications of resilience analytics in
supply chain modeling: systematic literature review in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Environ. Syst. Decis; 40:222–243.

Gupta, D. Ivanov, T.M. Choi. (2020). Competitive pricing of substitute products under supply
disruption Omega ahead-of-print (2020)

Ivanov, D. (2020a). Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A
simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak. Transportation Research Part
E,136(March), 101922.

Ivanov, D. (2020b). Viable supply chain model: Integrating agility, resilience, and sustainability
perspectives. Lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. Annals of Operations
Research.

Ivanov, D. and Dolgui A., 2020a, “A digital supply chain twin for managing the disruption risks
and resilience in the era of industry 4.0”. Production Planning and Control, 1–14.
10.1080/09537287.2020.1768450

Ivanov, D., & Dolgui, A. (2019). Low-certainty-need (LCN) supply chains: A new perspective in
managing disruption risks and resilience. International Journal of Production Research,57(15–
16), 5119–5136.

Ivanov, D., & Dolgui, A. (2020b). Viability of intertwined supply networks: Extending the supply
chain resilience angles towards survivability. A position paper motivated by the COVID-19
outbreak. International Journal of Production Research,58(10), 2904–2915.
Ivanov, D., Das, A., & Choi, T. -M. (2018). New flexibility drivers in manufacturing, service, and
supply chain systems. International Journal of Production Research,56(10), 3359–3368.

Kargar, M. Pourmehdi, M.M. Paydar. (2020) Reverse logistics network design for medical waste
management in the epidemic outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) Sci. Total Environ.,
746 , Article 141183

Kejzar KZ, Velic A. (2020) Covid-19, trade collapse and GVC linkages: the European experience.
Covid Economics. 2020;61: 222–244

Kobrin, S. (2020). How globalization became a thing that goes bump into the night. Journal of
International Business Policy. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-020-00060-y.

Kumar A, Luthra S, Mangla SK, Kazançoğlu Y (2020) COVID-19 impact on sustainable production
and operations management. Sustain Oper Comput

Leite H., Lindsay C., Kumar M. (2020) COVID-19 outbreak: implications on healthcare
operations. TQM J. ahead-of-print.

Paul, S. K., Sarker, R., Essam, D., & Lee, P. T. W. (2019). A mathematical modelling approach for
managing sudden disturbances in a three-tier manufacturing supply chain. Annals of Operations
Research,280, 299–335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03251-w.

Queiroz M.M., Ivanov D., Dolgui A., Wamba S.F. (2020) Impacts of epidemic outbreaks on
supply chains: Mapping a research agenda amid the COVID-19 pandemic through a structured
literature review. Annals of Operations Research:1–38.

Rowan, N. J., and Laffey J. G., (2020), “Challenges and solutions for addressing the critical
shortage of supply chain for personal and protective equipment (PPE) arising from coronavirus
disease (COVID19) pandemic – A case study from the Republic of Ireland”. Science of the Total
Environment, 725: 138532. 10.1016

Sarkis, J., Cohen, M. J., Dewick, P., & Schr, P. (2020). A brave new world: lessons from the
COVID-19 pandemic for transitioning to sustainable supply and production. Resources,
Conservation and Recycling.

Scheibe, K. P., and Blackhurst J., (2018), “Supply chain disruption propagation: A systemic risk
and normal accident theory perspective”. International Journal of Production Research, 56: 43–
59. 10.1080/00207543.2017.1355123. The Economic Times (2020).

The Guardian (2020). Available <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/07/india-

becomes-country-with-second-highest-number-of-covid-cases>
Tranfield, D., Denyer, D. and Smart, P., (2003). Towards a Methodology for Developing
Evidence-Informed Management Knowledge by Means of Systematic Review. British Journal of
Management, 14(3), pp.207-222.

Van Assche, A. (2020). Trade is among the casualties of the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy Options.

Yuen K.F., Wang X., Ma F., Li K.X. (2020) The Psychological causes of panic buying following a
health crisis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health; 17:1–14.

Zhu G, Chou MC, Tsai CW (2020) Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 pandemic exposing the
shortcomings of current supply chain operations: A long-term prescriptive offering.