CHAPTER TWO

Projections of Population and

Water Demand
Topics
❑ Population Projection
• Introduction
• Population Projection Techniques

❑ Water Demand Projection

• Domestic Water Demand
• Non-Domestic Water Demand
• Design Demands
1. Population Projection

Introduction
Every country conducts an official enumeration of the population called
census every ten-years time (decennial census).

In Ethiopia, all the available census data are collected from the Central
Statistical Authority (CSA). The data is then used for the projection of
the future population of the area under consideration at the end of the
design period.
Factors responsible for changes in
population

• Birth rate

• Death rate

• Migration rate
Methods of Population Forecasting

The most commonly used techniques for making population projection

are

▪ Trend Based Methods

▪ Ratio Methods
Trend Method

The trend based methods assume that population growth

follows natural laws and, therefore, can be expressed in
mathematical or graphical form.

Basically, population is a forecast by examining and projecting

past trends into the future.
Trend Based(Graphic Techniques)

Graphic projections are most commonly made using arithmetic,

Semi-log, or probability paper. The data used in the plotting are
historic data from census reports of the Central Statistics
Authority(CSA).

The historic data are often plotted on all three types of graph
paper, and the plot which comes closest to a straight line
indicates the mathematical form to be used for the projection.

In using the plotted information for projection purposes, the

analyst assumes that the condition implied by the straight line
will continue into the future.
Graphical Method
Trend Based(Mathematical Techniques)
The mathematical technique for projecting population also
utilizes historic data and produces results similar to those
obtained through the graphical techniques.

In their simplest form, mathematical techniques are nothing

more than the equations that will reproduce a straight or curved
line.

The basic theory for this is that any smooth line which can be
plotted can be expressed (or at least approximated) by an
equation.
Arithmetic Increase Method
This method assumes that the population increases at a constant rate

𝒅𝑷
=K
𝒅𝒕

𝒅𝑷 = 𝑲 ∗ 𝒅𝒕

𝑷𝟐 𝒕𝟐
‫ = 𝑷𝒅 𝟏𝑷׬‬K‫𝒕𝒅 𝟏𝒕׬‬

(𝑷𝟐 - 𝑷𝟏 ) = K(𝒕𝟐 - 𝒕𝟏 )

Thus population at nth year or decade can be estimated as:

𝑷𝒏 = 𝑷𝟎 + n*𝑿ഥ
Geometric Increase Method
This method assumes that the per decade percentage increase or
percentage growth rate (r) is constant:

𝟏 𝒏
𝑷𝒏 = 𝑷𝟎 (𝟏 + 𝒓)
Incremental Increase Method
Unlike arithmetic and geometric increase methods, this method
assumes that the per decade growth rate is progressively
increasing or decreasing depending upon whether the average
of the incremental increase in the past data is positive or
negative.
𝒏(𝒏+𝟏)
𝑷𝒏 = 𝑷𝟎 + n*𝑿
ഥ + *ഥ
𝒚
𝟐
Advantage of Trend Based Methods

The advantage of Trend Based Methods is that they are the easiest to make
population projection

Disadvantage of Trend Based Methods

They are founded on the assumption that the factors and conditions which
produced population growth or decline in the area in the past will continue
unchanged and will have the same effects in the future
 Example

Based on the given population data for the last five decades, forecast
population at the end of 2040 using Arithmetic, Geometric and
Incremental/Decremental increase method.

Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Population 835,270 970,400 1,120,445 1,240,570 1,325,225 1,460,540
Ratio Method
Population growth in an area or community is usually closely related to, or
affected by, economic and population changes in the State or Nation in which
it lies. Future population changes in those larger areas may have an
important influence on growth or decline in the smaller area.

Hence, past relationships between population growth in an area or

community and that of its State or Nation are valuable guides for projection
of the local population. If logically founded population projections for the
Nation or State are available, projections for the area or community can be
derived directly there from.

National projections are obtained from the Central Statistical Authority

(CSA).
Advantage of Ratio Methods
The factors affecting population growth in the area or community may
be more clearly visualized and appraised with a knowledge of its past
relationships to growth in its State or the Nation.

Disadvantage of Ratio Methods

Former relationships between population growth in the area under
consideration and that in other areas may suddenly change.
2. Water Demand Projection

❑ Domestic Demand

❑ Non – Domestic Demand

o Public Demand

o Industrial Demand

o Fire fighting Demand

o Un accounted water Demand

Domestic Water Demand

This represents the water required in residential buildings for drinking,

cooking, bathing, sanitary purposes.

Factors affecting Domestic water demand:

➢ Level of water supply service

➢ Per capital water demand

➢ Socio-economic conditions and

➢ Climatic condition of the area

Level of Water Supply Service
Level 1 Service: Distribution point near the source
Level 2 Service: Distribution point near the population center
Level 3 Service: Distribution of water to each house by pipeline
 Per Capital water Demand with respect to level of service and Time

Phase Public Tabs Yard Connection House Connection

Immediate 20 lit/p/d 40 lit/p/d 60 lit/p/d

Phase - 1 25 lit/p/d 50 lit/p/d 75 lit/p/d

Phase - 2 30 lit/p/d 60 lit/p/d 90 lit/p/d

The per capita domestic water demand could therefore be
multiplied by the Socio-Economic Factor and the Climatic
Factor.

When this factored per capita water demand is multiplied by the

future population, it gives the average daily domestic water
demand of the area for which water supply is planned.
Non-Domestic Water Demand

a. Public Water Demand

This represents the water required for schools, hospitals,

restaurants, public offices, commercial institutions, military
camps, and other public purposes.
b. Industrial Water Demand

This includes the water demand of industries which are either existing
or are likely to be started in the future in the area for which water
supply is being planned.

This demand is assessed separately and individually. And no allowance

will be made to cover such demand from the water supply system.

c. Fire Fighting Demand

This is the quantity of water required for extinguishing fires and is
always stored in storage reservoirs.

This demand is, therefore, taken care of by increasing the volume of

the storage tanks by 10%.
d. Unaccounted-for Water

This includes water losses in the water supply system due to bad
plumbing, illegal connections and others.

The amount is usually expressed in percentage of the sum of

domestic demand, public demand and the industrial demand
covered from the water supply system.

And it usually varies from 15% to 50% depending on the age of

the pipelines in the system and the size of the distribution
network.
Factored design demands
1. Average Day Demand
= 1.15 to 1.50 (Domestic water demand + Public water
demand + Industrial demand)

2. Maximum Day Demand

= 1.20 to 1.50 (Average Day Demand)

3. Peak Hour Demand

= 2.00 to 3.00 (Average Day Demand/24)
 Water Demand Example
By considering total population estimated using Geometric increase method for year 2040 as Target
population, Estimate Design water demands at the end of year 2040 using house connection mode of service.

Assume that the town is currently experiencing low living standard but, it has high potential for future
economic advancement and it is located on climatic zone which has annual average precipitation below
600mm. There is one Day school and one Boarding school in the town with total number of 1,200 and 850
students respectively and there is no industrial activity in the town.

Based on the above information determine total No. of circular storage tanks with 20m height and 10m
diameter that will serve the population for two days at failure of water supply system and Diameter of
Transmission main Pipe operating at 75% full condition and with flow velocity of 5m/se.

Self Challenge: If we are going to use 50 wells as source of water to meet population demand at the
end of year 2040, Determine minimum discharge capacity required per well. (Hint: Source capacity will be
determined by average daily demand)