Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Performance Highlights: Neutral
Performance Highlights: Neutral
HUL
Performance Highlights
(`cr) Revenue EBITDA OPM (%) PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
1QFY11
4,793.9 598.6 12.5 514.7
`324 -
1QFY12
5,503.9 678.8 12.3 568.4
% yoy
14.8 13.4 (15bp) 10.4
Angel Est
5,462.3 709.0 13.0 609.0
% Diff
0.8 (4.3) (65bp) (6.7)
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
FMCG 70,676 0.6 346/250 2,44,302 1.0 18,197 5,482 HUL.BO HUVR@IN
HUL posted a good set of numbers for the quarter, largely in-line with our estimates. The companys top-line grew by 14.8% yoy to `5,504cr (`4,794cr). Recurring earnings for the quarter grew by 10.4% yoy, above our estimates. During the quarter, the soaps and detergent (S&D) segment posted 12.8% yoy revenue growth, while its EBIT margin contracted by 175bp yoy to 9%. The food business reported 17.8% yoy growth (it now includes ice creams as well). The personal products segment grew by 19.4% yoy, registering the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit volume-led growth. We remain Neutral on the stock. Volume growth slows down to a single digit: HUL posted top-line growth of 14.8% yoy to `5,504cr (`4,794cr), driven by disappointing volume growth of 8% yoy. Overall, FMCG sales grew by 15% yoy, aided by 15% yoy growth in home and personal care (HPC) and 15% yoy growth in foods businesses. At the operating level, OPM remained flat and declined by 15bp yoy. However, the decline in OPM was capped by lower ad spends (down 417bp yoy). Gross margin during the quarter dipped by 482bp yoy on account of raw-material price inflation. In terms of earnings, HUL posted a 10.4% yoy increase to `568cr (`514cr). Outlook and valuation: We expect HUL to post a ~13% CAGR in its top line over FY201113E, largely aided by steady performance of the companys personal care and foods division (aided by innovations and higher ad spends), spike in detergents volume growth and modest performance of its soaps business (aided by brand re-launches). In terms of earnings, we expect HUL to post a ~17% CAGR. At the CMP of `324, the stock is trading at 24.2x FY2013E earnings, which is in-line with its historical valuations. We see a limited upside in the stock price and, hence, maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF /Banks /Indian FIs FII /NRIs /OCBs Indian Public /Others 52.5 14.1 18.7 14.7
3m (5.7) 14.4
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit (Adj.) % chg OPM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 17,524 (13.4) 2,103 (15.9) 14.5 9.7 32.1 27.1 90.5 101.3 3.9 26.5
FY2011E 19,401 10.7 2,099 (0.2) 12.2 9.7 30.3 22.4 73.6 74.7 3.5 28.3
FY2012E 21,865 12.7 2,523 20.2 13.4 11.7 27.7 19.3 74.9 79.9 3.0 22.6
FY2013E 24,637 12.7 2,886 14.4 13.9 13.4 24.2 17.0 74.7 82.0 2.7 19.2 Sreekanth P.V.S
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6841
sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales Consumption of RM (% of Sales) Staff Costs (% of Sales) Advertising Expense (% of Sales) Other Expenses (% of Sales) Total Expenditure Operating Profit OPM (%) Interest Depreciation Other Income PBT (excl. Extr. Items) Extr. Income/(Expense) PBT (incl. Extr. Items) (% of Sales) Provision for Taxation (% of PBT) Recurring PAT PATM (%) Reported PAT Equity shares (cr) FDEPS (`)
4QFY11 5,503.9 3,074.2 55.9 286.2 5.2 633.0 11.5 831.8 15.1 4,825.1 678.8 12.3 0.0 56.2 126.1 748.7 58.8 807.4 14.7 180.2 24.1 568.4 10.3 627.2 218.2 2.9
4QFY10 4,793.9 2,446.6 51.0 250.6 5.2 751.2 15.7 746.9 15.6 4,195.3 598.6 12.5 0.1 53.5 124.5 669.5 18.5 688.0 14.4 154.8 23.1 514.7 10.7 533.2 218.2 2.4
% yoy 14.8 25.6 14.2 (15.7) 11.4 15.0 13.4 (75.0) 5.0 1.3 11.8 17.4 16.4 10.4 17.6 17.6
FY2011 19,401.1 10,056.8 51.8 961.3 5.0 2,764.2 14.2 3,253.6 16.8 17,035.9 2,365.2 12.2 0.2 220.8 586.0 2,730.2 206.8 2,937.0 15.1 631.0 23.1 2,099.2 10.8 2,306.0 218.2 10.6
FY2010 17,523.8 8,877.9 50.7 936.3 5.3 2,391.4 13.6 2,769.7 15.8 14,975.4 2,548.4 14.5 7.0 184.0 349.6 2,707.1 111.3 2,818.4 16.1 616.4 22.8 2,090.7 11.9 2,202.0 218.2 10.1
% chg 10.7 13.3 2.7 15.6 17.5 13.8 (7.2) (96.7) 20.0 67.6 0.9 4.2 2.4 0.4 4.7 4.7
(` cr)
2,000 1,000 -
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
(%)
3,000
(%)
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
Top-line (LHS)
`cr)
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
( %)
(%)
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
1Q12 1Q12
PAT (LHS)
OPM
Gross margin
1QFY12 2,555 1,631 609 372 306 107 5,579 236 413 75 17 24 (3) 763 (0) 77 840 9 25 12 5 8 (2)
1QFY11 % chg 2,264 1,366 538 316 265 113 4,861 249 339 70 26 23 (27) 679 (0) 112 790 11 25 13 8 9 (24) 6.3 29.7 4.4 14.8 (5.1) 22.0 8.4 12.8 19.4 13.1 17.8 15.7 (5.3)
FY2011 FY2010 % chg 8,792 5,844 2,344 1,177 1,100 438 834 1,495 358 28 92 (75) 2,731 (0) 202 2,933 9 26 15 2 8 (17) 8,266 5,048 2,142 962 1,005 347 (4) 10.9 15.3 11.9 56.3 (2.2) 1,185 (29.6) 1,297 320 59 (72) 2,793 (7) (36) 2,750 14 26 15 0 6 (21) 6.7 6.4 15.8 9.4 22.4 9.4 26.3
19,694 17,766
4 535.1
(` cr)
(`cr)
(%)
5.0 (5.0)
200 100 -
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
Top-line (LHS)
EBIT (LHS)
EBIT % (RHS)
1Q12
(%)
300
(`cr)
(%)
1,000 500 -
(`cr)
10.0 5.0 -
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
Top-line (LHS)
EBIT (LHS)
EBIT % (RHS)
Investment Rationale
Brand positioning shift from the mass-market segment to the premium market segment: HUL has been very actively re-launching products from its existing brands and has increased the pace of new launches, targeting the mid/premium market segment (launched Ponds Gold Radiance and relaunched Dove and Rin in the personal products and the S&D categories, respectively). This in our view is positive, considering that the company will have a better control on pricing. Moreover, constant innovations have helped HUL stabilise its market share losses. However, we retain a slight caution against ITCs commitment to categories such as soaps, shampoos and skin care, which may pose a major threat to HUL in the long run. We model in an 8.5% and a 15.7% CAGR in the S&D and personal products segments revenue over FY201113E and expect margin to come in at ~12% and ~25% for S&D and personal products segments, respectively. Strong domestic play and strong balance sheet provide further impetus: HUL, with its iconic brands, has sustained its volume growth, which is impressive given the recent price hike and strong competitive scenario, indicating a revival in consumer demand and higher growth in the mid/premium endmarket segment. Moreover, HUL is a cash rich, zero debt company enjoying high RoE of ~75%. We have modeled a recurring earning CAGR of ~17% over FY201113E, though we expect the companys margin to be under pressure due to high input cost inflation.
1Q12
(%)
15.0
20.0
FY2010 8,266 5,048 2,142 917 1,005 347 1.5 15.6 14.7 39.7 (14.6) 10.3 1,185 1,297 320 4 59 (72) 14.3 25.7 14.9 0.5 5.8 (20.8)
FY2011 8,792 5,844 2,344 1,177 1,100 438 6.4 15.8 9.4 28.4 9.4 26.3 834 1,495 358 28 92 (75) 9.5 25.6 15.3 2.4 8.3 (17.1)
FY2012E 9,495 6,750 2,555 1,460 1,210 526 8.0 15.5 9.0 24.0 10.0 20.0 1,139 1,721 396 77 99 (58) 12.0 25.5 15.5 5.3 8.2 (11.0)
FY2013E 10,349 7,830 2,785 1,825 1,337 641 9.0 16.0 9.0 25.0 10.5 22.0 1,242 1,997 432 97 110 (71) 12.0 25.5 15.5 5.3 8.2 (11.0)
9,885 5,385 2,300 808 1,576 359 1,482 1,429 308 1 108 (134) 15.0 26.5 13.4 0.2 6.9 (37.5)
Reco
Neutral Neutral Reduce Accumulate Reduce Accumulate Neutral Neutral Neutral Reduce
Mcap (` cr)
29,983 5,758 13,217 18,147 10,143 14,099 70,676 161,185 10,279 41,935
#
CMP (`)
3,126 482 972 104 2,412 436 324 208 167 4,349
TP* (`)
869 115 2,163 478 3,483
Upside (%)
(3) 3 (11) 10 (10) 10 (1) (2) (5) (20)
160%
Dec-05
Dec-07
Aug-06
Aug-08
Dec-09
Apr-05
Apr-07
Aug-10
Apr-09
Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Blue line indicates 5-year average
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Blue line indicates 5-year average
Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11
Apr-11
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Preference Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Minority Interest Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Total Assets 2,669 1,147 1,523 186 1,441 3,277 201 680 2,397 5,111 (1,834) 1,315 2,882 1,275 1,607 472 333 5,601 1,777 758 3,066 5,784 (183) 2,229 3,582 1,420 2,162 274 1,264 5,368 1,892 617 2,858 6,733 (1,365) 2,335 4,000 1,641 2,360 400 1,764 5,762 1,892 698 3,171 7,416 (1,654) 2,870 4,417 1,888 2,529 442 2,264 6,364 2,012 809 3,543 8,227 (1,863) 3,372 4,879 2,161 2,717 488 2,764 6,961 2,051 924 3,985 9,073 (2,112) 3,857 218 1,221 1,439 89 (212) 1,315 218 1,844 2,062 422 (255) 2,229 218 2,365 2,584 0 (249) 2,335 216 2,903 3,119 0 (249) 2,870 216 3,405 3,621 0 (249) 3,372 216 3,890 4,106 0 (249) 3,857 CY07 FY09# FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) RoCE Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Net Working capital (days) 5.1 52 12 102 (54) 7.0 46 10 77 (35) 4.9 45 14 110 (68) 4.9 46 14 111 (67) 5.0 46 14 109 (65) 5.1 46 13 106 (62) 89.5 83.7 138.9 142.9 103.6 90.5 82.4 73.6 86.3 74.9 87.5 74.7 8.0 8.1 8.7 9.1 6.7 11.5 11.6 12.5 7.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 10.6 6.5 12.0 9.7 9.7 10.7 7.0 14.4 11.7 11.7 12.8 8.0 16.8 13.4 13.4 14.6 9.5 19.0 36.6 37.2 48.6 2.8 5.1 36.8 52.5 28.3 25.9 33.9 2.3 3.4 26.0 31.0 32.1 30.6 27.1 2.0 3.9 26.5 28.9 30.3 30.2 22.4 2.2 3.5 28.3 23.4 27.7 25.2 19.3 2.5 3.0 22.6 19.7 24.2 22.1 17.0 2.9 2.7 19.2 17.1 CY07 FY09# FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Disclaimer
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
HUL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
12