DISKUSI SELASAN

METODE SISTEM
UNTUK MENGELOLA PERUBAHAN SOSIAL

Dr. Andreo W.A.

Bandar Lampung
11 Feb. 2019
wahyudiatmoko@yahoo.com
TOPIK

I. INTRODUKSI
II. MENGAPA METODE SISTEM
III. KASUS: SIMULASI
IV. METODE SISTEM UNTUK OPTIMASI & PERUBAHAN
V. Q&A
I. INTRODUKSI

Jay Wright Forrester

(14 Juli 1918 – 16 Nov. 2016)

MIT, Boston, 2013

R
E
F
E
R
E
N
S
I
MIT, Boston, 2015
 International System Dynamics Conferences
Beberapa Paper Terkait Ilmu Administrasi
MIT, Boston, 2017 & Delft, Netherlands, 2016
1. Cafe, Patricia, et al., Goods and Services Tax Dynamics
2. Carvalho, Hamilton, et al., Going with the flow: corruption in tax agencies
3. Carvalho, Hamilton, et al., Zombies in Civil Service: Why the conceptual edifice of public administration creates a motivational trap in
Brazil
4. Capelo, Carlos, et al. Exploring the Dynamics of an Energy Service Venture for Energy Efficiency Policy
5. Chen, Jian Hung et al., Analysing the Market Evolution and Strategy of the DSLR Industry
6. Chiu, Yiwen Water Consumption Impact under Climate and Population Scenarios
7. Dabirian, Shahin with Mehdi Saffar Evaluation of construction safety management based on site corrective actions
8. Dillerup, Ralf with Daniela Kappler and Fiona Oster Improving the Management of Innovation Risks
9. Domenge, Rogerio with Jorge Mejia Strategic Resources Investment Planning for Growth and Development: An executive training model
10. Gary, Shayne with Shanie Atkinson Implementation Strategies and Post-Merger Integration Performance Outcomes
11. Garzia, Carmine Innovation diffusion and bandwagon effect. The palm oil in the Italian bakery industry
12. Getmansky Sherman, Mila Systemic Risk and Financial Networks
13. Ghaffarzadegan et al., Dell's SupportAssist Customer Adoption Model: Enhancing the Next Generation of Data-Intensive Support Services
14. Ghaffarzadegan, Navid with Richard Larson SD Meets OR: A New Synergy to Address Policy Problems
15. Homer, Jack Designs for Living: A Simulation Analysis of Factors Affecting Achievement and Satisfaction over the Life Cycle
16. Kapmeier, Florian with Jeroen Struben Understanding the Dynamics of Alliance Capabilities
17. Kapourani, Eleftheria-Eleni with Florian Kapmeier "Boom without Limits?" - An Analysis of the Stuttgart Real Estate Market
18. Moulton, Allen et al., Managerial Implications and Comparative Effects of SAFe Scaled Agile Methods in Government Software
Acquisition
19. Pucarevic, Nikola Systemic Interventions Design in Public Policy Management:Youth Policy Case Study
20. Qorbani, et al. Analyzing Business Dynamics of Ride-Hailing Services: A DPM Approach Applied to Uber Inc.
21. Riva, Fabio, et al. Modelling social networks in innovation diffusion processes: the case of electricity access in rural areas
22. Xu, Ran, et al. The Micro-Dynamics of Network Leverage: Implications for Change Agents External to an Organization
 International System Dynamics Conferences
Beberapa Paper Terkait Sosiologi, HI
MIT, 2017, & Delft, 2016, Canada, 1998

1. Stave, Krystyna with Nuno Videira (2017). ”Exploring the Dynamics of Food Sharing Systems with Participatory
System Dynamics Modeling.’’
2. Nava Guerrero, Graciela del Carmen with Philipp Schwarz and Jill Slinger (2017). ”A recent overview of the integration
of System Dynamics and Agent-based Modelling and Simulation.”
3. Horschig, Thomas with Daniela Thran (2016). ”Political Power-Play at its best.”
4. Olaya, Camilo with Juliana Gomez-Quintero (2016). “Conceptualization of Social Systems: Actors First.”
5. Franco, Douglas with Usman Ghani (2015). “Culture Dynamics”
6. Moore, Andrew with Kathleen Carley, Matthew Collins and Neal Altman. “Social Network Dynamics of Insider Threats:
A Preliminary Model.”
7. Hayden, Nancy (2015). “Conflict Dynamics and Peacemaking: Understanding the Security, Aid and Development Nexus
in Africa.”
8. Mandal, Abhijit with David Lounsbury and Ramesh Pattni (2015). ”An Investigation into the Dynamics of Transiting
into Alternate States of Consciousnes.”
9. Piamou Djamengo, Michel Douglas with Pascaux Smala Fanokoa. “System Dynamics Modeling of impacts of Central
African Republic refugees in Eastern Cameroon.”
10. Shao, Cecelia (2015). “Modeling the Threat of ISIS in the Context of Modern Terrorism.”
11. arghami, Mahdi with Mohammad Amir Rahmani (2017). “Toward Effective Water Diplomacy by Using System
Dynamics: Case Study.”
12. Senge (1998). “Some Thoughts at the Boundaries of Classical System Dynamics: Structuration and Wholism.”

https://www.systemdynamics.org/past-conferences
II. MENGAPA METODE SISTEM

FENOMENA KEKINIAN
• Incresing Complexity
• Growing Interdependence
• Revolution in Management Theories & Practice
• Increasing Recognition of Learning (Policy Resistance)
 Fenomena Sistemik
Kemacetan

Jumlah Kemacetan
Mobil

Pembatasan
Mobil

Kebutuhan
Kenyamanan

Life Style

Dynamic Complexity Policy Resistance & Uncertainty

 Contoh Gambaran
Masalah Sistemik Transportasi
Pembangunan
Jalan
Waktu
Tempuh-Perjalanan
Yang Diinginkan
Kapasitas Tekanan untuk
Jalan Mengurangi
Kemacetan

Waktu Kecukupan
Tempuh- Sarana
Perjalanan Pembangunan
Transportasi Moda Baru
Umum Trans Umum
Volume Daya Tarik
Lalu-lintas Berkendaraan Biaya
Pribadi Transportasi
Umum
Harga Tiket
Perjalanan Trans Umum
per Hari Defisit
Anggaran
Trans Umum
Volume Rata2
Mobil di Kota Panjang Penggunaan
Penghasilan
Perjalanan Transportasi
Transportasi
Umum
Umum

Mobil per
Orang
 Fenomena Gula

Ekspor + Int’l Trade

+ Issue

Panen Penimbunan
+
+ -
+ Stok
+
Supply Nasional +
-
Penanaman +
Tebu -
Harga - Konsumsi
+ Isu
+ Impor
+ Politik

+ +
Minat + Subsidi
Tanam
-

+
Spekulan

A. Wahyudi Atmoko 10
 Sistem + Products at
+
Organisasi Market
- sales rate
rate of development
finishes
+ rate of loss of -
- customers +
Active +
Customer rate of revenue + price
+ generation
staff/customer -
+
+
rate of
development starts - desired support + desired support
staff staff/customer
rate of leaving +
+ - rate of cost
desired percent Profit
Product investment in support - generation
- -
Support Staff + staff
+ +
- desired support staff
recruitmrnt rate
rate investment in +
rate of completion of support staff percent of profit invested
+
training of product support in product support staff
Product staff
Development Staff +
+
rate of recruitment of +
product support staff
-
rate of completion of -
training of product rate of investment in
development staff unit cost of staf product development
+
- staff
rate recruitment of
product development +
staff
 +
collusive tie between import +

+
Politicians and - -
business + foreign currency
- national surplus in foreign + reserve
competitiveness export currencies
government + - -
lack of + - +
democracy Interruption in financial + financial crisis
+ activity transparancy and - speculative
advanced technology investment
+ corruption + - national
- +
- complain credibility
of labor + +
market + + +
+
+ - foreign +
competition industrial
investment value of
+ job + restructuring
+ + currency
flexibility in labor pain sharing between
growth first policy marakets Employer and ompleyee
- + +
+
+ - unenployment
level of economic
activity + + restrukturing of
+ BIS ratio
+ financial institution
- money flow
+ loan
+ - +
- -
banckrupcy investment - interest rate -
+

Krisis Finansial Korea Selatan

Model Sensemaking “Karl Weick”
III. KASUS: SIMULASI

LIMITS TO GROWTH

New Product & Customer Management

Accessories Satisfaction + Capacity
+ +
+
R Customer +
Sales B
Service Quality

R&D +
+ Pressure on -
Investment Management
 40

Data 35

Pengunjung 30
Supermarket 25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Masuk 15 17 22 37 28 26 25 30 22 23 22 23 18 20 18 15 7 13 15 18 16 22 10 16 13 11 13 10 11 10
Keluar 10 11 16 27 17 20 17 9 16 14 16 15 18 24 26 24 30 23 28 27 39 25 20 28 22 23 24 18 20 15

Q1. Pada menit ke-berapakah pengunjung paling banyak masuk kedalam supermarket?
Menit ………………… [ ] Tidak dapat ditentukan
Q2. Pada menit ke-berapakah pengunjung paling banyak keluar dari supermarket?
Menit ………………… [ ] Tidak dapat ditentukan
Q3. Pada menit ke-berapakah pengunjung paling banyak di dalam supermarket?
Menit ………………… [ ] Tidak dapat ditentukan
Q4. Pada menit ke-berapakah pengunjung paling sedikit sedikit di dalam supermarket?
Menit ………………… [ ] Tidak dapat ditentukan
 Memori Sistem Bersifat Mengakumulasi

t 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Inflow 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Outflow 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Stock 0 3 9 18 …
30 …
45 …
63 …
84
Mathematical Representation

Integral Equation:
t
Stock(t) = ∫ [Inflow(s) – Outflow(s)]ds + Stock (t0)
t0

Differential Equation:
d(Stock)/dt = Net Change in Stock = Inflow(t) – Outflow(t)
 Bagaimana Pola Perilaku
Jika Inflow Konstan Sebesar 2?

4 20

3 15

Stock
Inflow

2 10

1 5

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time Time

A. Wahyudi Atmoko 17
 Bagaimana Pola Perilaku
Jika Inflow Linier?

10 50

8 40

Stock
Inflow

6 30

4 20

2 10

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10

Time Time

A. Wahyudi Atmoko 18
 Bagaimana Pola Perilaku
Jika Inflow Berpola Seperti di Bawah Ini?

4 20

3 15
Inflow

Stock
2 10

1 5

0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time Time

A. Wahyudi Atmoko 19
 SYSTEM DYNAMICS

Capture Nonlinearity Dynamic

Nature of Managerial & Social Causality & Endogenous Behavior
System

In builds Strengths of Both Traditional

Limitation of Traditional Mgt & Mgt Science and Complement
Management Weakness

Limitation of Human Mind Utilizes Strength of Human Mind &

Mental Models and Complement their
weakness by technology
Different source of Information
Signifikansi Matches Strength and weakness of
multiple sources of information
Bounded Rationality in
Decision Making Portray Bounded Rationality and helps
in overcoming Bounds

Limited Interplay Knowledge Enrich interplay with Micro-world by

and Policy Debates providing Maps Using Feedback and
Behavioral Decision Theory
Direct Feedback From Real
Life on Policy Implementation Intermediate Feedback about Impacts
of Policies Through Simulation

(Sushil, 1993)
 SYSTEMS THINKING VS TRADITIONAL APPROACH
Traditional Approach
The connection between problems &
their causes is obvious & easy to trace.
Others (either within or outside our
organization) are blame for our pro-
blems, & must be the ones to change.
A policy design to achive short-term
success will also assure long-term
success.
In order to optimize the whole, we must
optimize the parts.
Aggresively tackle many independent
initiatives simultaneously.
Systems Thinking
The relationship between problems &
their causes is indirect & not obvious.
We unwittingly create our own problems
& have significant control or influence in
solving them by changing our behavior.
Most quick fixes either make no long-
term difference or actually make matters
worse in the long run.
Focus on policies that optimize the
whole rather than each of the parts.
Target & orchestrate a few key changes
over time.
SYSTEMS PRINCIPLES
 A System?

A collection of parts that interact with one

another to function as a whole. A System is
more than the sum of its part – it is the
product of their interaction (Ackoff, 1993);

A grouping of parts that operate together for

a common purpose (Forrester, 1968).
Apa System Dynamics?
24

The investigation of the information-feedback character of

industrial systems and the use of models for the design of
improved organizational form and guiding policy”
(Forrester, 1968).

“A rigorous method for qualitative description, exploration and

analyisis of complex systems in terms of their process,
information, organizational boundaries and strategies; wich
facilitates quantitative simulation modelling and analysis for the
design of system structure and behavior” (Wolstenholme: 1990).
 System Dynamics
“adalah cara melihat masalah dari struktur
sebab akibat demi mencapai suatu tujuan
dengan hasil kinerja dari waktu ke waktu
berupa pelambatan atau percepatan
sebagai reaksi terhadap setiap intervensi
strukturnya” (Andreo WA)

Teori Struktur-Pola
Teori STRUKTUR & POLA

Feedback Loop:
Reinforcing & Balancing
Systems Thinking Level

Event

Pola

Struktur

Mental Model
Pola

Archetype
“LIMIT to SUCCESS”

Struktur
Pola Eksponensial
STRUCTURE

STRUCTURE R
(REINFORCING LOOP)

They compound change in one

direction with even more change in
that direction.

REINFORCING Loop can be seen as

the engines of growth and collapse.
 STRUCTURE R
(REINFORCING LOOP)

+
A B
+
 Employee Sales from
+ Performance + Word of
Mouth

Amount of + +
Support Offered Customer
by Supervisor Base
 - Layoffs

-
Performance Employee
Confidence
-

Anxiety
-
Pola Goal Seeking

Television Share of All Advertising, US US Traffic Fatalities per Vehicle Mile

STRUCTURE

STRUCTURE B
(BALANCING LOOP)

They resist change in one direction by

producing change in the opposite direction.

BALANCING Loop can be seen as

the goal seeking or equilibirum.
 STRUCTURE B
(BALANCING LOOP)

+
A B
-
PATTERN

STRUCTURE B
(BALANCING LOOP)
Desired
Inventory
+
- Discrepency

+
Actual Inventory Inventory
Adjustments
+
 +
Attractiveness
of Market

+
Profit Number of
Competitor
+

Price
-
Pola Kinerja
IV. METODE SISTEM UNTUK OPTIMASI & PERUBAHAN

SYSTEM DYNAMICS
sebagai
Perkembangan System Dynamics
Perspektif Filosofis

Metode

Teori Struktur-Pola

Alat/Teknik Pemodelan (Lane, 2000)

 Aksiologis Model “Hard vs. Soft”

MODEL KERAS MODEL LUNAK

1. DEFINISI REPRESENTASI MERANGSANG

MODEL DUNIA NYATA DISKUSI TENTANG
INSIGHT DUNIA
NYATA
2. DEFINISI SOAL JELAS DENGAN AMBIGUOUS (TIDAK
TUJUAN TUNGGAL TERLALU JELAS)
DENGAN TUJUAN
JAMAK
3. PESERTA DAN TIDAK DIMASUKKAN BAGIAN INTEGRAL
ORGANISASI DALAM MODEL DARI MODEL
 MODEL KERAS MODEL LUNAK

KUANTITATIF &
4. DATA KUANTATIF KUALITATIF

5. GOAL PENDALAMAN, PROSES

SOLUSI/OPTIMISASI, PEMBELAJARAN,
PREDIKSI PENDALAMAN
6. KELUARAN HASIL SIMULASI, KEMAJUAN MELALUI
PRODUK, GROUP LEARNING
REKOMENDASI
 SD sbg Langkah TPS
Matakuliah (Teknik Pemodelan System Dynamics)
dg Fokus
TPS

John Sterman, 2000

 Validasi Model “Hard Systems”

(Zagonel, 2006)
 Validasi Model “Hard Systems”
Loosely Constrained Highly Constrained
Komponen Pemodelan

System’s Mapping Quantitative Hypothesis Uncertainty Forecasting and

Analysis Modeling Testing Optimization
1. Qualitative and 1. Quantitative and 1. Quantitative and 1. Quantitative and 1. Quantitative and
inductive; descriptive; deductive; exploratory; predictive;
2. Involves drawing 2. Involves 2. Requires stating a 2. Requires examining 2. Within the range
influence diagrams, formulation and hypothesis that behavioral and of the parameter
CLDs, S&F simulation; explains dynamic quantitative space specified in
diagrams, or any 3. Largely system- behavior from the sensitivity; the model,
form of mapping or focused; causal structure of 3. Emphasizes testing attempts to shed
organization of the 4. Emphasizes S&F the system; the robustness of light on future
elements forming a dynamics and the 3. Largely problem the results behavioral patterns
system; effects of delays; focused; produced from and the cross-
3. Attempts to get at 5. Requires 4. Emphasizes both quantitative sectional
the key causal specification of the feedback-rich modeling and quantitative values
interrelationships; decision rules dynamics, learning, hypothesis testing; of variables of
4. Focused upon governing and exploration of 4. Focused upon interest, or to
identification of interrelationships; the effect of uncertainty and suggest optimal or
inter-organizational 6. Focused on changes in system risk, and robust solutions
linkages and representing and structure; identification of that maximize or
interdependencies tracking 5. Focused upon points of leverage “satisfice”
consequences; understanding and for intervening in particular utility
7. Sometimes rich in insight the system functions
detail complexity

(Zagonel, 2006)
Domain Validasi “Hard vs. Soft”
 System Dynamics
adalah tujuan utamanya bukan untuk membuat
model sistem, tetapi lebih untuk mendapatkan
keterlibatan suatu kelompok dalam pembuatan
suatu model dinamika sistem masalah agar
dapat melihat sejauh mana proses ini dapat
membantu untuk meningkatkan pemahaman
masalah dan menyusun program tindakan
yang akan dilakukan oleh tim dengan
komitmen. (Avennix, 1996)
Metode
Kerangka Pemikiran System Dynamics sbg
Metode untuk Perubahan: “Hard + Soft”
Teori Struktur-Pola
Model Archetypes

SD sbg
Matakuliah
dg Fokus
TSP
Q &A