Jun-22 Sep-22

0.38420661512759 Positive 0.25220386206822 Positive

0.37131777712283 Positive 0.13407362784897 Positive
0.96686505328822 Negative 0.74333992642837 Negative
0.8213383756611 Negative 0.47340541642519 Positive
0.7735012093933 Positive 0.37094464010966 Positive
0.53053084516501 Positive 0.64794416434684 Positive
0.29467618635894 Positive 0.8504950374977 Negative
0.53774105089655 Positive 0.20238654916101 Positive
0.30568098970175 Positive 0.46988889167471 Positive
0.14347975585654 Positive 0.93017354180114 Negative
0.59085372080541 Positive 0.16352116343615 Positive
0.43196587517169 Positive 0.4867893439815 Positive
0.17220610015814 Positive 0.50365999894754 Positive
0.39665277450647 Positive 0.52834345755708 Positive
0.95642691638678 Negative 0.78106277816319 Negative
0.77617556284574 Positive 0.23609551008665 Positive
0.28017805777047 Positive 0.65089787789948 Positive
0.4208741632633 Positive 0.14273738924333 Positive
0.72772621788218 Positive 0.55128453706553 Positive
0.05317694028687 Positive 0.71064051041679 Negative
0.51590510008986 Positive 0.96066979899495 Negative
0.7953854188819 Positive 0.4962122211139 Positive
0.17834202833991 Positive 0.1578829803192 Positive
0.94807635456202 Negative 0.16630449123007 Positive
0.06801175854204 Positive 0.92985413393989 Negative
0.95451368578234 Negative 0.22492636584955 Positive
0.8680325641157 Negative 0.84212905207438 Negative
0.20842787816161 Positive 0.3485781177612 Positive
0.33851119056821 Positive 0.90759814216182 Negative
0.35856691039835 Positive 0.25034736663512 Positive
0.28048656371887 Positive 0.04876702664647 Positive
0.05445685978304 Positive 0.2063892821013 Positive
0.67331905585067 Positive 0.02404251179997 Positive
0.78847340209491 Positive 0.2931820070762 Positive
0.66043292548357 Positive 0.5630543740867 Positive
0.63298685499755 Positive 0.09947485182714 Positive
0.07234408192896 Positive 0.92649466937307 Negative
0.21500013699149 Positive 0.66659434121525 Positive
0.95900382526511 Negative 0.61955025030115 Positive
0.10863621054045 Positive 0.45825087669002 Positive
0.73820021304234 Positive 0.67968417967646 Positive
0.02152874927629 Positive 0.71455988086849 Negative
0.83902743935049 Negative 0.66346693765674 Positive
0.62741585401807 Positive 0.4127769480151 Positive
0.86136278085634 Negative 0.85617514102749 Negative
0.14967539657567 Positive 0.44133602743918 Positive
0.67699161284609 Positive 0.83184580856432 Negative
0.20050574377052 Positive 0.2648734002022 Positive
0.76501303929209 Positive 0.95116236601387 Negative
0.40951492201057 Positive 0.50980943198466 Positive
0.51569103853844 Positive 0.26573102498352 Positive
0.60129594452239 Positive 0.00941447916518 Positive
0.99029898498467 Negative 0.72162563328175 Negative
0.4063080772693 Positive 0.21765601302803 Positive
0.75898622119242 Positive 0.93050064518353 Negative
0.89254358797978 Negative 0.75329167147048 Negative
0.95382769095532 Negative 0.29625409982337 Positive
0.79954630392995 Positive 0.17441658174229 Positive
0.46256385262344 Positive 0.88748744441668 Negative
0.94891557672886 Negative 0.08764226099603 Positive
0.49133251880743 Positive 0.3833760922578 Positive
0.67564041184312 Positive 0.97122288213759 Negative
0.99083148230419 Negative 0.29548747426101 Positive
0.30547291098752 Positive 0.27558796848248 Positive
0.28206809058201 Positive 0.0175828931362 Positive
0.71888850858205 Positive 0.30320138417344 Positive
0.53845942922367 Positive 0.74185108457369 Negative
0.7911239565759 Positive 0.23392954060202 Positive
0.32302109127189 Positive 0.74697517781764 Negative
0.53681295700229 Positive 0.42901922885742 Positive
0.7475337494286 Positive 0.13144428623437 Positive
0.24573889536177 Positive 0.14127730385245 Positive
0.33745260688117 Positive 0.4481331337024 Positive
0.18975342906599 Positive 0.67736667833394 Positive
0.67625575783147 Positive 0.6729857451469 Positive
0.27281832936965 Positive 0.8432694770789 Negative
0.48640000198878 Positive 0.02534780173542 Positive
0.84251112415056 Negative 0.13810023003176 Positive
0.30318081577256 Positive 0.02062425427881 Positive
0.93728305127864 Negative 0.26099075996069 Positive
0.3124603170821 Positive 0.51705086240857 Positive
0.1321211976684 Positive 0.24716375274963 Positive
0.42495221349066 Positive 0.15414953440299 Positive
0.74052637500685 Positive 0.93196655116771 Negative
0.10982572122565 Positive 0.56409063957584 Positive
0.95059683876444 Negative 0.36500756255695 Positive
0.44337405092151 Positive 0.00113403247805 Positive
0.05352743556597 Positive 0.52960336777837 Positive
0.07205432648685 Positive 0.91151909158345 Negative
 0.28792402848821 Positive
0.15600440294178 Positive
0.83211398847176 Negative
0.2919889562326 Positive
0.17413554093588 Positive
0.84136035887635 Negative
0.51296154647291 Positive
0.43015522986518 Positive
0.39405717011825 Positive
0.81307268049589 Negative
0.87054220700538 Negative
P (negative tests)
0.00749964821877 Positive
0.86572776468275 Negative
0.32359828653469 Positive
0.34968126431976 Positive
0.99057634287947 Negative
0.52163137601794 Positive
0.07603831044656 Positive
0.88685120346543 Negative
0.93605042891802 Negative
0.12838092948463 Positive
0.89199804897198 Negative
0.21 P (negative tests) 0.29

Hypothesis Test at α=0.05 Hypothesis Test at α=0.05

H0: px<=0.25 H0: px<=0.35
H1: px>0.25 H1: px>0.35
px 0.25 px 0.35
p cap 0.21 p cap 0.29
n 100 n 100
Test Score -0.98205723228 Test Score -1.322278928164
tc -1.975460432326 tc -1.975460432326
Result Fail to Reject H0 Result Fail to Reject H0

The data above shows the COVID-19 test results of a random sample of a 100 people. These test results are based
that the random number lies between 0.8 and 1. The lower bound is then decreased for every following time perio
reducing the likelihood that their test results are positive. The purpose of these tests was to calculate the probabili
for the population proportion (of the number of negative tests from the total sample). The true meaning of these t
2023) shows whether or not the probability of negative COVID tests is less than 75%, at a 95% confidence level. Th
 Dec-22 Mar-23
0.27623049186687 Positive 0.3036350121367 Positive
0.75204381651075 Negative 0.48875618178289 Positive
0.78069545826004 Negative 0.85450334075139 Negative
0.05002414349613 Positive 0.68236044642356 Negative
0.09795932755813 Positive 0.87216158650263 Negative
0.61625841183795 Negative 0.37858355067298 Positive
0.39135148094489 Positive 0.17540953717009 Positive
0.61103716140251 Negative 0.43036658579486 Positive
0.79600797153182 Negative 0.38474635009465 Positive
0.38114783286285 Positive 0.98528763525144 Negative
0.74539605439139 Negative 0.01783620441289 Positive
0.79497322710094 Negative 0.11448560373315 Positive
0.20276311790977 Positive 0.13764147874744 Positive
0.71782529332953 Negative 0.78057320635238 Negative
0.25039214451151 Positive 0.88843700698036 Negative
0.05271195581433 Positive 0.13902667829681 Positive
0.63731470313619 Negative 0.651869855634 Negative
0.17560477430099 Positive 0.87515695410658 Negative
0.24746386907702 Positive 0.12881769235852 Positive
0.9098614301209 Negative 0.27829421963397 Positive
0.98331773689969 Negative 0.57899516977925 Negative
0.66680567537815 Negative 0.27735768593982 Positive
0.96876017829483 Negative 0.9097206811103 Negative
0.15243632475976 Positive 0.283723583475 Positive
0.69329496095333 Negative 0.71387098242492 Negative
0.25925077035468 Positive 0.79164500662808 Negative
0.66568115978915 Negative 0.22652890618738 Positive
0.65418173062176 Negative 0.89721931984971 Negative
0.81371345666385 Negative 0.62058626094076 Negative
0.78123479877786 Negative 0.15091464488744 Positive
0.24398776574634 Positive 0.56878388865385 Negative
0.29025266035852 Positive 0.74806957788551 Negative
0.28759445896696 Positive 0.03775195247437 Positive
0.17669846902409 Positive 0.60904343536962 Negative
0.00209425466066 Positive 0.91954568907394 Negative
0.87750721368112 Negative 0.9211836074355 Negative
0.49977974878162 Positive 0.32854349401266 Positive
0.8132591000958 Negative 0.57156259916749 Negative
0.63104057460971 Negative 0.87164437235931 Negative
0.9204882816917 Negative 0.9467697175671 Negative
0.94354044338243 Negative 0.08113900604543 Positive
0.29419302318338 Positive 0.34066408570151 Positive
0.59074675854516 Positive 0.63501765051395 Negative
0.81139488028583 Negative 0.02962733120927 Positive
0.68352604790101 Negative 0.9484214670331 Negative
0.26119383131867 Positive 0.94394113966857 Negative
0.23761131795159 Positive 0.80690457562862 Negative
0.11399674582749 Positive 0.98874027793865 Negative
0.01526929028835 Positive 0.46544212998065 Positive
0.58179609122973 Positive 0.65696981212619 Negative
0.15812692591824 Positive 0.27353590641748 Positive
0.24762978338706 Positive 0.07305176553674 Positive
0.94695357309221 Negative 0.40854928907659 Positive
0.32818592778864 Positive 0.135215703467 Positive
0.85432997029548 Negative 0.15998459685829 Positive
0.14477214011134 Positive 0.4697324753314 Positive
0.6225534642868 Negative 0.38857391901315 Positive
0.5822385943996 Positive 0.92482745321883 Negative
0.64754758125466 Negative 0.21249611755802 Positive
0.95419920140168 Negative 0.33130941687959 Positive
0.33773117780571 Positive 0.79046372080231 Negative
0.65501104908859 Negative 0.19315157627218 Positive
0.37170513414099 Positive 0.26428545315631 Positive
0.07407761123409 Positive 0.81308709373896 Negative
0.06556106691751 Positive 0.4344873426012 Positive
0.72371324292286 Negative 0.36862866262369 Positive
0.98391018763821 Negative 0.56751964674644 Negative
0.02321257512766 Positive 0.40342518366618 Positive
0.81958016049253 Negative 0.25114985860877 Positive
0.78308288048439 Negative 0.44435460175277 Positive
0.7070544626266 Negative 0.18014098939648 Positive
0.09192589586991 Positive 0.13466035156042 Positive
0.91137336131924 Negative 0.52510042890366 Negative
0.65295458977709 Negative 0.69632673354368 Negative
0.20956484806893 Positive 0.44984159356651 Positive
0.14247408242793 Positive 0.4631275391023 Positive
0.59701946792967 Positive 0.99357748665058 Negative
0.87808205097434 Negative 0.60976053729159 Negative
0.00652846258629 Positive 0.36273245904672 Positive
0.05389162692618 Positive 0.0323478915553 Positive
0.4949777969075 Positive 0.78138029813663 Negative
0.1736280532162 Positive 0.39136153180129 Positive
0.16808034522162 Positive 0.32413187168159 Positive
0.32449726024029 Positive 0.66681999663609 Negative
0.29616047495578 Positive 0.01732013870605 Positive
0.24638708387321 Positive 0.52070160730555 Negative
0.65611802656451 Negative 0.66035644234381 Negative
0.8036995606104 Negative 0.85485206880322 Negative
0.85667257943781 Negative 0.75692556438424 Negative
 0.9098038993183 Negative
0.25085296257528 Positive
0.1686039937657 Positive
0.53047384206957 Positive
0.16502546750027 Positive
0.40620791156533 Positive
0.75380525029202 Negative
0.19377796761936 Positive
0.55171032040189 Positive
0.66493738392353 Negative
0.76445124075921 Negative
P (negative tests)
0.7653945317282 Negative
0.36950654328576 Positive
0.88732683323797 Negative
0.26451537536158 Positive
0.9382451471129 Negative
0.01020516554089 Positive
0.78358648953783 Negative
0.58902617247042 Negative
0.5974990369421 Negative
0.80537815769563 Negative
0.59524923300757 Negative
0.46 P (negative tests) 0.5

Hypothesis Test at α=0.05 Hypothesis Test at α=0.05

H0: px<=0.50 H0: px<=0.60
H1: px>0.50 H1: px>0.60
px 0.5 px 0.6
p cap 0.46 p cap 0.5
n 100 n 100
Test Score -0.802572353905 Test Score -2
tc -1.975460432326 tc -1.975460432326
Result Fail to Reject H0 Result Reject H0

ese test results are based on random numbers generated between 0 and 1, and the condition changes as the time period increases. For the
every following time period by 0.1. The reason for this pattern is that as the time increases, more and more people have had COVID at leas
s to calculate the probability of full dissappearance of COVID in the respective time periods, and for assurity, several hypothesis tests have b
he true meaning of these tests is to check whether or not the calculated probabiltiies provide a realistic result regardin gthe disappearance
a 95% confidence level. These tests and their overall pattern throughout the time frame give us a better idea of how likely the disappearanc
 Jun-23 Sep-23
0.56017377862221 Negative 0.39964539392988 Negative
0.67414672965362 Negative 0.79801946804624 Negative
0.70549202315463 Negative 0.16792415400808 Positive
0.42391815548058 Negative 0.43254765237499 Negative
0.8239143978255 Negative 0.48477033176793 Negative
0.13584487614404 Positive 0.95823111307758 Negative
0.75217507830075 Negative 0.14254987549066 Positive
0.06766246338751 Positive 0.30300989819812 Negative
0.55139001486747 Negative 0.14452192487506 Positive
0.38753797417556 Positive 0.96571267964822 Negative
0.51952831875279 Negative 0.88867018700947 Negative
0.91310431852283 Negative 0.54679779555313 Negative
0.01404351064146 Positive 0.52173585175647 Negative
0.2439089772671 Positive 0.03040844803292 Positive
0.13911320311625 Positive 0.74430838598273 Negative
0.91117580591501 Negative 0.03692579394557 Positive
0.38497366461144 Positive 0.18968609715168 Positive
0.93469526204082 Negative 0.76311105011751 Negative
0.70589886687538 Negative 0.60987884268787 Negative
0.08918319250284 Positive 0.85224809898226 Negative
0.76903638624512 Negative 0.7607902190897 Negative
0.42991957148308 Negative 0.03433997653199 Positive
0.89681153383785 Negative 0.02549682586895 Positive
0.85041147898262 Negative 0.46078090265467 Negative
0.57106940269603 Negative 0.31018140145469 Negative
0.77094597971956 Negative 0.43070557644368 Negative
0.34780337408523 Positive 0.4249361777432 Negative
0.3126234547784 Positive 0.24331745643024 Positive
0.79754339076275 Negative 0.80322771910352 Negative
0.50862764075362 Negative 0.3467971386597 Negative
0.13421979040869 Positive 0.13506504548863 Positive
0.08713456963509 Positive 0.96002447120745 Negative
0.29158219795576 Positive 0.75689724075706 Negative
0.60181254103559 Negative 0.23194038021876 Positive
0.10909103682914 Positive 0.25136030762219 Positive
0.38227280602706 Positive 0.40079314331764 Negative
0.3979595433454 Positive 0.35120209542054 Negative
0.66546007865949 Negative 0.37080530332721 Negative
0.37482200377275 Positive 0.90154581328996 Negative
0.63926017020253 Negative 0.37130341907223 Negative
0.78240353309967 Negative 0.50514686725426 Negative
0.39170781027978 Positive 0.02674208859368 Positive
0.03097744353601 Positive 0.50806743358387 Negative
0.49349960110174 Negative 0.12327122558742 Positive
0.04262952693993 Positive 0.73137636601614 Negative
0.94241957081424 Negative 0.66211544393945 Negative
0.61315544840424 Negative 0.45279647681009 Negative
0.40212731337065 Negative 0.10221561143857 Positive
0.69029813248472 Negative 0.86321421558494 Negative
0.98615451035254 Negative 0.91460928091723 Negative
0.72334900152133 Negative 0.83907822767153 Negative
0.37501764839011 Positive 0.96411570951737 Negative
0.09425789140124 Positive 0.64081677778483 Negative
0.80547980116085 Negative 0.3918135418976 Negative
0.6195882888518 Negative 0.89394741021848 Negative
0.85687776018533 Negative 0.64178147704199 Negative
0.88990011779667 Negative 0.08724970143887 Positive
0.01559196611416 Positive 0.33303979967877 Negative
0.31761753076763 Positive 0.76774821752967 Negative
0.50494689754069 Negative 0.01178179972905 Positive
0.30216223873108 Positive 0.7948871494824 Negative
0.08950158628629 Positive 0.38778867217364 Negative
0.60732628411954 Negative 0.75842488671318 Negative
0.86052384317126 Negative 0.88542406518068 Negative
0.16808018063283 Positive 0.34715963692665 Negative
0.416902800595 Negative 0.96292161489141 Negative
0.88603952197602 Negative 0.34194422266066 Negative
0.49911928180096 Negative 0.31343790438061 Negative
0.08457506226934 Positive 0.75817700675008 Negative
0.34020004283136 Positive 0.82427315903049 Negative
0.635432276053 Negative 0.71528834121671 Negative
0.50717024545103 Negative 0.25308533602827 Positive
0.1481739862647 Positive 0.38318849459841 Negative
0.08655246077493 Positive 0.81939490534239 Negative
0.05644139509226 Positive 0.72963396241267 Negative
0.50956262117985 Negative 0.31218947776857 Negative
0.78222887791999 Negative 0.57984911074832 Negative
0.92965301082763 Negative 0.55046447143114 Negative
0.40386603863097 Negative 0.20935422399705 Positive
0.68610794031203 Negative 0.67810071095462 Negative
0.3596956681145 Positive 0.10831718066722 Positive
0.71775529326081 Negative 0.41477013580718 Negative
0.700819204187 Negative 0.44845956086035 Negative
0.98799003717469 Negative 0.81568940749752 Negative
0.14490747755036 Positive 0.45506324442643 Negative
0.71812131411136 Negative 0.50122397735772 Negative
0.56918715919424 Negative 0.00980285662391 Positive
0.09792576404945 Positive 0.21276534263064 Positive
0.44132367380049 Negative 0.00805799637275 Positive
 0.64908594911425 Negative
0.21795904094621 Positive
0.05897288035774 Positive
0.0186817204268 Positive
0.24416898259057 Positive
0.59967783021918 Negative
0.85184398517315 Negative
0.77292868763929 Negative
0.46037695572515 Negative
0.30343045612798 Positive
0.34076557804815 Positive
P (negative tests)
0.99962467882605 Negative
0.02223311761642 Positive
0.83521987747278 Negative
0.92827559939808 Negative
0.00534051304393 Positive
0.3135704972739 Negative
0.20349821972585 Positive
0.19986086710197 Positive
0.06426717836397 Positive
0.22436820744097 Positive
0.48707945009267 Negative
0.59 P (negative tests) 0.71

Hypothesis Test at α=0.05 Hypothesis Test

H0: px<=0.70 H0: px<=0.75
H1: px>0.70 H1: px>0.75
px 0.7 px 0.75
p cap 0.59 p cap 0.71
n 100 n 100
Test Score -2.236530118246 Test Score -0.881519285443
tc -1.975460432326 tc -1.975460432326
Result Reject H0 Result Fail to Reject H0

s as the time period increases. For the first time frame, the condition for a negative COVID test is
more people have had COVID at least once, thus making them more immune to the virus and
surity, several hypothesis tests have been conducted.The 95% confidence level hypothesis tests are
tic result regardin gthe disappearance of COVID. So, for instance, the last hypothesis test (September
er idea of how likely the disappearance of COVID by certain time periods.
ECON 222, Spring 2022, Eray Yucel
Microsoft Excel functions are required: visit https://dar.vin/nDAmO for Excel assistance
Hw5: week of 02 May 2022

Grading: No submission=0 points, Late submission=30 points deduction. Other deductions will be
announced by the TA team. Note that Homework performance makes up 12.5% of your semester total; so,
sharing your work in any form with other students may harm your individual letter grade assessment.
Unacceptably high similarity between submissions will yield a grade of 0 points as well as possible
disciplinary investigation. Once you are finished with Homework, save your file and send a copy of your
workbook to your TA’s email as an attachment. Send it also to your own Bilkent-registered e-mail address
for future reference and keep that e-mail message safe at all times.

Using the knowledge and skills you've acquired in ECON 222 and previously in ECON 221, provide an
estimated probability for the 'full disappearance of Covid-19 within 't months' from now. A good way to
report your estimates is:

The probability for the full disappearance of Covid-19 by end of Jun 2022 is .....
The probability for the full disappearance of Covid-19 by end of Sep 2022 is .....
The probability for the full disappearance of Covid-19 by end of Dec 2022 is .....
The probability for the full disappearance of Covid-19 by end of Mar 2023 is .....
The probability for the full disappearance of Covid-19 by end of Jun 2023 is .....
The probability for the full disappearance of Covid-19 by end of Sep 2023 is .....

Show your way of thinking, data and calculations, if any, clearly. Note that this is a fairly ill-defined problem
and requires some careful and serious thinking. Simply providing your subjective probabilities, if intuitive &
reasonable, will receive 40 points. Better work is required for higher points.

Submission deadline is 11 May 2022, Wednesday, 21:00. Your TA will send you a short message of “Ok”
upon her/his receipt of your email.