Illegal Immigration Policy in the United States

Caleb He
Abstract

The United States has had an immigration problem for quite a while. In 2018, President Trump

raised concerns about a migrant caravan and the subsequent “invasion” of undocumented

immigrants. A Pew Research survey found in the same year that among GOP voters surveyed,

75% ranked illegal immigration as the most pressing issue confronting the nation. There indeed

is a pressing illegal immigration concern putting lives at risk that needs decisive and

comprehensive legislative action to resolve. To understand this issue, we must first consider the

history and patterns of immigration to the United States.

Keywords: Immigration, Immigration Policy, American-Latin America Relations, Undocumented

Immigration, Latin America

Introduction

The United States has had an immigration problem for quite a while. In 2018, President Trump

raised concerns about a migrant caravan and the subsequent “invasion” of undocumented

immigrants.1 A Pew Research survey found in the same year that among GOP voters surveyed,

75% ranked illegal immigration as the most pressing issue confronting the nation. There indeed

is a pressing illegal immigration problem putting lives at risk that needs decisive and

comprehensive legislative action to resolve.

In 26 years, from 1992 to 2018, there has been a 464% increase in the number of border

patrols in the southwest border, from Big Bend, TX, to San Diego, CA.2 Likewise, the Border

Patrol budget has increased from $263 million in 1990 to $4.8 billion in 2020, a startling 1847%

increase.3 One might think that such a dramatic increase in personnel and funding devoted to

border enforcement would result in reducing unauthorized immigration from Mexico to the

United States. However, data proves otherwise; during that period, the number of

undocumented immigrants residing in the country rose by nearly 7.5 million.4

Why has expanded border patrol not led to a reduction in the number of illegal

immigrants? What are the motivations behind this agenda to increase border security, and are

1
The Hill. “Trump Tried to Create 'Hysteria' over Migrant Caravans, Says Progressive Lawmaker.” The
Hill. The Hill, November 15, 2018.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/417006-trump-tried-to-create-hysteria-over-migrant-caravans-says-progressi
ve-lawmaker/.
2
“United States Border Patrol Border Patrol Agent Nationwide Staffing by Fiscal Year.” n.d.
https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2019-Mar/Staffing%20FY1992-FY2018.pdf.
3
“The Cost of Immigration Enforcement and Border Security.” 2013. American Immigration Council.
September 23, 2013.
https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/the-cost-of-immigration-enforcement-and-border-se
curity.
4
Passel, Jeffrey S, and D’Vera Cohn. 2017. “As Mexican Share Declined, U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant
Population Fell in 2015 below Recession Level.” Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center. April 25,
2017.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/25/as-mexican-share-declined-u-s-unauthorized-immigran
t-population-fell-in-2015-below-recession-level/.
they legitimate? To understand this issue we must first consider the history and patterns of

immigration to the United States.

A Brief History of Illegal Immigration

In 1964, Congress suspended the Bracero Program, a landmark guest worker

agreement with Mexico that supplied a vital source of cheap agricultural labor during WWII.

From its establishment via executive order in 1942, the Bracero Program hired over 4.5 million

Mexican citizens, fostering a common circular migration pattern in which young male Mexican

citizens entered the US for work, sent back remittances, returned to Mexico to their families, and

returned to the US for more money to send home. 5

The year after, Congress passed the amendments to the Immigration and Nationality Act

in 1965 that placed the first-ever numerical limits on immigration.6 When Congress passed the

amendments to the Immigration and Nationality Act, the labor supply and demand conditions

remained, and migration of Mexican laborers simply continued illegally. The number of

undocumented immigrants in the U.S. grew slowly, reaching 2 million by 1980.7 The circular

migration patterns that existed since the 1950s continued, albeit without legal status.

Politicians began to harness this increase in illegal immigration as a political platform,

portraying the “flood” of Mexican immigrants as a threat to Americans. Our huddled masses

have turned into hordes in the minds of politicians and pundits; politicians employed rhetoric that

painted illegal immigrants as criminal, tax-dodging, free-riding aliens. In 1985, President Ronald

Reagan declared illegal immigration as “a threat to national security” and warned that “terrorists

and subversives are just two days’ driving time from Harlingen, Texas.”8 The year after,
5
“Bracero History Archive.” 2021. Braceroarchive.org. 2021. https://braceroarchive.org/about.
6
“Summary of H.R. 14535 (94th): Immigration and Nationality Act Amendments - GovTrack.us.” 2022.
GovTrack.us. 2022. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/94/hr14535/summary.
7
Warren, Robert, and Jeffrey S. Passel. 1987. “A Count of the Uncountable: Estimates of Undocumented
Aliens Counted in the 1980 United States Census.” Demography 24 (3): 375–93.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2061304.
8
Massey, Douglas S. “America’s Immigration Policy Fiasco: Learning from Past Mistakes.” Daedalus 142,
no. 3 (2013): 5–15. http://www.jstor.org/stable/43297247.
Congress passed the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 that included provisions to

address the “immigration emergency, including increasing funding for border patrols.9

As a result, the number of apprehensions at the border increased from 910,361 in 1980

to 1,197,875 in 1991.10 The flow of illegal immigrants had begun to plateau beginning by the

1970s, and the increase in the number of apprehensions is likely explained by the sheer

increase in patrols—not an increase in border-crossers.11 Nevertheless, the increase in

apprehensions was taken as justification for more enforcement measures, resulting in a cycle of

enforcement and apprehensions that continue to this day.

Unaddressed Causes and Unintended Consequences

The issue with border enforcement is that it fails to address the underlying economic pull

factors of migrations: high fertility rates in Mexico, a supersaturated Mexican job market, and

higher wages in the United States. The border is long, and by focusing patrolling and

enforcement measures on specific sectors, migrants will adjust border-crossing strategies to

less patrolled, more remote, and more dangerous crossing sites.

The militarization of the border disrupted the circular flow of migrants that kept the

undocumented population in the United States low. According to data by Princeton sociologist

Douglas Massey, around 85% of new entries by illegal immigrants were offset by departures.12

According to data from the Mexican Migration Project, in 1980, 46% of undocumented Mexican

9
Congress.gov. "S.1200 - 99th Congress (1985-1986): Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986."
November 6, 1986. https://www.congress.gov/bill/99th-congress/senate-bill/1200.
10
“Table 33. Aliens Apprehended: Fiscal Years 1925 to 2016 | Homeland Security.” 2016. Dhs.gov. 2016.
https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2016/table33.
11
Bean, Frank D., Edward E. Telles, and B. Lindsay Lowell. “Undocumented Migration to the United
States: Perceptions and Evidence.” Population and Development Review 13, no. 4 (1987): 671–90.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1973027.
12
Klein, Ezra. 2013. “Everything You Know about Immigration Is Wrong.” Washington Post. The
Washington Post. August 9, 2013.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/08/10/everything-you-know-about-immigration-is-w
rong/.
migrants returned within 12 months; however, by 2014, 0% returned. Once they settle, they call

for their families to join them.13

By augmenting border enforcement and making returns to Mexico increasingly costly,

migrants are likely to extend the duration of their stays or even settle. Chain migration ensues

as migrants send for their families and children, resulting in the massive increase in

undocumented immigrants. The Princeton team of sociologists Massey, Durand, and Pren argue

in their 2016 paper published in the American Journal of Sociology that had border patrols

remained at 1986 levels, the undocumented Mexican population residing in the U.S. would be

estimated to be 31% lower than it is now—5.3 million fewer immigrants.14

Massey et al. assert that “we estimate that $53.3 million extra dollars were spent to

create an undocumented population about a third greater than it would have been with no

increase in spending.” We have increased the number of border agents, built 650 miles of

fencing, and enforced constant surveillance in an attempt to keep migrants out; in reality, we’ve

only kept them in.

Not only has increased border enforcement largely failed at their intended goals, but

they also come at a huge cost of human lives. Operation Blockade in 1993 and Operation

Gatekeeper in 1994 were initiatives during the Clinton Administration to militarize the border and

clamp down on popular border crossing routes. As a result, border crossings were diverted to

the dangerous Sonoran desert, and border deaths rose from 72 deaths in 1994 to 492 deaths in

2005.15

In a similar chord of increasing border enforcement, Trump has centered his immigration

policy around an expanded border wall, with construction starting in 2019. Nevertheless,

13
“MMP - Mexican Migration Project.” 2022. Princeton.edu. 2022.
https://mmp.opr.princeton.edu/results/011returnpers-en.aspx.
14
Massey, Douglas S., Jorge Durand, and Karen A. Pren. 2016. “Why Border Enforcement Backfired.”
American Journal of Sociology 121 (5): 1557–1600. https://doi.org/10.1086/684200.
15
“United States Border Patrol Southwest Border Sectors Fiscal Year Big Bend (Formerly Marfa).”
https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2019-Mar/bp-southwest-border-sector-deaths-fy
1998-fy2018.pdf.
Trump’s proposal for the wall faces a host of logistical issues that would fail to stop the most

desperate of border crossers. Natural events such as floods and storms pose a maintenance

liability. While the height of the new border wall will impede attempts to climb over it, this avoids

the fact that most drug smuggling occurs through tunnels. From 2007 to 2010, the Border Patrol

found at least 51 unauthorized tunnels—an average of more than one tunnel a month.16 The

Homeland Security Department’s Science and Technology Directorate “currently does not have

the technological capability to routinely and accurately detect tunnels.”17

Simply put, Trump’s proposed border wall is a massive expenditure with a price tag of

billions of dollars (likely to be paid by American tax dollars rather than Mexico’s trade deficit, as

proposed by Trump) that in all likelihood would have a minimal impact on reducing illegal

immigration. It would not make the American people any safer—only more taxed.

The rate of undocumented immigration from Mexico has steadily declined since 2007,

and net migration has fallen to effectively zero.18 This is not evidence for the effectiveness of

border control but rather is attributed by economists to a falloff in construction due to the 2009

recession as well as an improving economy in Mexico. Ironically, Americans have spent

hundreds of billions of dollars on an issue that ended up solving itself.

Overblown Fears

The agenda to militarize the border is a result of politicians, bureaucrats, and pundits

harnessing fears for decades about illegal immigrants bringing drug trafficking and terrorism to

America. In a recent example, Trump tweeted in 2019 about halting the invasion of our Country

16
Lacey, Marc. 2022. “Smugglers of Drugs Burrow on Border (Published 2010),” 2022.
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/03/us/03tunnels.html.
17
https://www.oig.dhs.gov/assets/Mgmt/2012/OIG_SLP_12-132_Sep12.pdf
18
Passel, Jeffrey S, D’Vera Cohn, and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera. 2012. “Net Migration from Mexico Falls to
Zero—and Perhaps Less.” Pew Research Center’s Hispanic Trends Project. Pew Research Center’s
Hispanic Trends Project. April 23, 2012.
https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2012/04/23/net-migration-from-mexico-falls-to-zero-and-perhaps-le
ss/.
by Drug Dealers, Cartels, Human Traffickers, Coyotes, and Illegal Immigrants...”19 These fears

are largely overblown. The ideas that illegal immigrants dominate drug trafficking are largely

erroneous. According to data released by the U.S. Sentencing Commission, in 2018, illegal

immigrants made up 16% of all drug trafficking convictions; 77% of convictions were U.S.

citizens.20

Likewise is the fear that illegal immigrants are more likely to be terrorists. A Cato

Institute Risk Analysis examined a data set of 192 foreign-born terrorists in the United States

from 1975 to the end of 2017, of which only 9 were illegal immigrants—0.000029% of the 31.3

million illegal immigrants that entered the country from 1975 to 2017.21 Illegal immigrants have

injured zero American residents in terror attacks; immigrants on tourist visas have injured 1 in

773,202 a year.

To put this in context, out of the 19 9/11 hijackers, 18 entered the country legally on

tourist visas, and one entered the country on a student visa.22 In other words, an American has

a much higher chance of being killed in a terrorist attack committed by a tourist on a B visa (1 in

4.1 million per year) than by an illegal immigrant (0 per year).

Increase border enforcement has only increased the incentive for drug and human

trafficking. In 1986, the average cost for border crossings was approximately USD 1000; in

2017, it was closer to USD 7000.23 This dramatic inflation of the profit margins of human

smuggling has made it more lucrative. Limited legal options to work and seek asylum coupled

with tighter security on the border would result in even more illegal migrants turning to

19
2022. Twitter. 2022. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1135150118120939521?lang=en.
20
“Commission Datafiles.” 2013. United States Sentencing Commission. October 28, 2013.
https://www.ussc.gov/research/datafiles/commission-datafiles.
21
Nowrasteh, Alex. 2019. “Terrorists by Immigration Status and Nationality: A Risk Analysis, 1975–2017.”
Cato Institute. May 7, 2019.
https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/terrorists-immigration-status-nationality-risk-analysis-197
5-2017.
22
https://govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/staff_statements/911_TerrTrav_Ch2.pdf
23
“MMP - Mexican Migration Project.” 2022. Princeton.edu. 2022.
https://mmp.opr.princeton.edu/results/001costs-en.aspx.
professional human smugglers for help. The use of coyotes in illegal border crossings increased

from approximately 70% to around 85% in 2017.24

Refreshing Proposals

A large guest worker program such as the Bracero program would reduce not only

border crossings but also the population of immigrants living in the country. This program could

be negotiated in a proposal for continuing economic integration under the current United

States–Mexico–Canada Agreement.

The billions of dollars that have been wasted on ineffective border management might be

better used on structural adjustment programs that can improve public health, education, and

economic infrastructure in Latin American countries that are the current major sources of illegal

migration—thereby reducing the motivations for migration.

Another proposal would be to adopt a “point”-based system similar to the one currently

adopted by the Canadian immigration system. Under Canada’s Express Entry program,

currently, undocumented immigrants are examined for language skills, education, and work

experience. Through this program, Canada retains an extremely vital pool of skilled immigrant

labor.25 Without a program like this, undocumented immigrants in the U.S. are stuck in legal

limbo with no agency for their destinies.

An outrageous, counterintuitive, yet effective solution? Give undocumented immigrants

green cards. As mentioned before, the circular flow of migration of workers has mostly offset the

net immigration into the United States. Giving Permanent Resident status to immigrants (or at

least temporary legal status) will help reestablish the circular flow of migrants that has kept net

immigration so low. Furthermore, the conditions in the United States are becoming increasingly

24
“MMP - Mexican Migration Project.” 2022. Princeton.edu. 2022.
https://mmp.opr.princeton.edu/results/002coyote-en.aspx.
25
Major, Rebecca. 2020. “Canada Express Entry Guide - Canadim.” Canadim. Canaddim. July 16, 2020.
https://www.canadim.com/immigrate/express-entry/.
hostile to immigrants, and with an economy in recession and increased cost of living, the costs

of staying in the United States are continuously diminishing. By reducing the barrier for return, at

least a large sector of undocumented immigrants would return to their homelands.

Whatever the proposed solution is, the fact remains that the current U.S. immigration

system is far too restrictive and the quota for legal immigrants has remained the same since

199026 although the economy has nearly doubled27 and the U.S. population has increased

30%.28 Wait times for visas often extend for decades, with one Cato Institute policy analyst

stating a projected estimate of 151 years for Indian immigrants with advanced degrees.29

Currently, 800,000 immigrants, mostly Indians, are awaiting a green card—indicative of a deeply

backlogged immigration system that has failed Americans and wanna-be-Americans alike.30

Trump has also once again gutted the refugee program, cutting quotas from an already measly

18,000 to 15,000.31 The government’s approach should not be setting unreasonably low limits

for undocumented immigrants who want to be legal, but rather should presume all candidates

are eligible to immigrate unless there is a clear reason not to. Focusing immigration

enforcement solely on immigrants that are a problem to society—those that pose an actual risk

to the lives and property of Americans—would warrant a much less expensive and effective

immigration strategy.

Immigrants play a vital but overlooked role in the American economy, not only boosting

the U.S. economy by increasing demand for goods and services but also making up 17% of the

U.S. workforce.32 Rather than taking jobs from Americans, immigrants often take manual jobs

26
Congress.gov. "S.358 - 101st Congress (1989-1990): Immigration Act of 1990." November 29, 1990.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/101st-congress/senate-bill/358.
27
“Real Gross Domestic Product.” 2022. Stlouisfed.org. 2022. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1.
28
Ibid.
29
Bier, David. 2018. “150-Year Wait for Indian Immigrants with Advanced Degrees.” Cato Institute. June
8, 2018. https://www.cato.org/blog/150-year-wait-indian-immigrants-advanced-degrees.
30
Ibid.
31
WATSON, JULIE. 2021. “Trump Plans to Slash Refugee Admissions to US to Record Low.” AP NEWS.
Associated Press. April 20, 2021.
https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-donald-trump-politics-united-states-immigration-f76797b97e8a0
b66150d0269fe4f432b.
32
Ibid.
considered too menial for Americans. The erroneous position politicians and pundits

perpetuate—that immigrants are displacing native-born American workers—is a phenomenon

that is very rarely observed.33 Americans need to worry about an entirely different issue at hand:

an aging, shrinking native workforce.

Pew Research projections predict that there will be a decline of 8.2 million working-age

adults in the U.S. from 2015 to 2035.34 This dearth in workers is mitigated by immigration

contributing a notable 18 million workers to the labor market. Similarly, a report by the National

Foundation for American Policy has found that cutting legal immigration quotas would reduce

the size of the American workforce and cripple the growth rate of the economy.35 Simply put,

without a regular flow of immigration, the United States will become less productive and the

GDP will likewise fall. Continued immigration is needed for not only recovery from the current

recession but for a continued robust American economy. Undocumented immigrants are the

powerhouse of labor that also contributes $11.6 billion a year in taxes.36

The desire to immigrate to the United States should be a litmus test of the health of the

economy. When the economy is in expansion, there is an increase in demand for workers

outpacing the number of American workers that can be fulfilled by immigrant labor. When the

economy is in a recession, as it is now, we can see a marked drop in immigration as the costs of

immigrating outweigh the benefits.

Immigration is currently at a decade low, but it should be a source of great national

concern. Canada understands this, and the Canadian government is proposing initiatives to

33
Ibid.
34
Passel, Jeffrey S, and D’Vera Cohn. 2017. “Immigration Projected to Drive Growth in U.S. Working-Age
Population through at Least 2035.” Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center. March 8, 2017.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/08/immigration-projected-to-drive-growth-in-u-s-working-a
ge-population-through-at-least-2035/.
35
https://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Legal-Immigration.NFAP-Policy-Brief.February-2020.pdf
36
Gee, Lisa, Matthew Gardner, and Meg Wiehe. 2016. “Undocumented Immigrants’ State & Local Tax
Contributions.” https://itep.sfo2.digitaloceanspaces.com/immigration2016.pdf.
attract immigrants even as the borders remain closed.37 Nevertheless, some economists have

speculated that the current administration’s immigration policy or more than 400 executive

orders has and will negatively affect the economy in the long term by reducing the status of the

U.S. as a magnet for foreign-reared talent and labor.38

Americans are faced with a few options concerning border enforcement. The U.S. government

can continue to hemorrhage taxpayer dollars on further militarizing a border against people who

are no longer crossing it. This isn’t necessarily a partisan issue: both Democratic and

Republican presidents have initiated ill-advised initiatives to militarize the border. The current

priority is to reduce illegal immigration and to facilitate legal immigration. This can be

accomplished through comprehensive immigration reform with specific points of address, but

until Washington views immigration as an asset—not a problem—American citizens will

continue to bear the financial cost. The United States has long prided itself on being an

extremely desirable destination for immigrants, both under legal auspices and not. Americans

can harness this for the benefit of the country and its economy—but that’s entirely up to us.

37
Hagan, Shelly. 2020. “Trudeau Targets More Immigration Even with Borders All but Shut.” BQ Prime.
BQ Prime. October 16, 2020.
https://www.bqprime.com/politics/maintaining-robust-immigration-is-canada-s-big-post-pandemic-bet.
38
Lee, Don, and Molly O’Toole. 2020. “Trump Immigration Limits Likely to Hit Economy Long-Term.” Los
Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times. October 9, 2020.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-10-09/trump-immigration-restrictions-will-impact-economy-lon
g-after-he-leaves-white-house-experts-say.