MASTER OF SCIENCE THESIS PROPOSAL

Modelling the impact of climate change on sediment yield in a highly

erodible Upper Indus River Basing at Katzarah Dam including
sediment management

MASTER OF SCIENCE
IN
CIVIL ENGINEERING

Submitted By
Engr. Jalil Ur Rehman
L1F19MSCE0008

Supervised By
Dr. Muhammad Babur

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL PUNJAB, LAHORE, PAKISTAN
October 2020
 ABSTRACT

Changes in the climate will have a direct impact on the extreme flows and sediment yield, in

a basin which can adversely affect the life of hydraulic structures. Pakistan is facing an acute

shortage of water supply being a water-stressed country and under climate change, it is

expected to worsen. In this study, we will quantify the impact of climate change on the life of

the proposed Katzarah Dam in the Upper Indus Basin. First of all, historical climate and

hydrological data including sediment data will be collected from the concerned departs. Then,

future climate data using a few RCMs under RCPs will be downloaded from the IPCC data

portal. Bias in the future climate data will be corrected using appropriate bias correction

methods. Afterward, a hydrological model for the study area will be developed. Furthermore,

the hydrological model will be calibrated and validated using historical observed data of

streamflow and sediment yield. Then, the hydrological model will run to generate the future

sediment yield towards the Katzarah Dam under climate change. Afterward, a change in the

projected sediment yield will be analyzed by comparing it with the historical sediment yield.

Reservoir and sediment management alternatives will be evaluated. Finally, the best

alternative will be selected to increase the life of Katzarah Dam. The results of this study will

be very useful for WAPDA in order to increase the life of the proposed reservoir under

climate change.

I
 Table of Content

ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................................
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................
CHAPTER TWO: STUDY AREA...............................................................................................
CHAPTER THREE: LITERATURE REVIEW........................................................................
CHAPTER FOUR: PROBLEM STATEMENT.........................................................................
CHAPTER FIVE: RESEARCH OBJECTIVES........................................................................
CHAPTER SIX: METHODOLOGY...........................................................................................
6.1 Flow Chart:..........................................................................................................................
CHAPTER SEVEN: OUTCOME AND UTILIZATION OF RESEARCH RESULTS.......
CHAPTER EIGHT: RESEARCH TIME TABLE...................................................................
CHAPTER NINE: REFERENCES............................................................................................
 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
Water is a very important natural resource for any country in the world. Pakistan is an agrarian
country which makes water essentially an important natural resource. Surface water hydrology is
the key for planning the water resources particularly for the countries like Pakistan where 70% of
its total population depends directly or indirectly on irrigated agriculture. The irrigation system is
built around River Indus and its five major tributaries and is called Indus Basin Irrigation system.
The development of several water reservoirs in Pakistan led to the construction of about 16
barrages or diversion dams and many hundreds of kilometer of water conveyance of canal.
Mangla dam built around river Jhelum is one of the most important water reservoir in Pakistan.
However, the dam has been continuously receiving sediments due to soil erosion and land cover
changes thereby reducing the water storage capacity of the reservoir. It has been documented that
13 largest rivers of the world cause 5800 billion kilograms of sediments to the reservoir every
year. The rate of sedimentation in water reservoir depends on several factors that include
vegetation, topography, and lithology of the catchment area and the amount of rainfall. Although
collection of soil by rainwater is very beneficial for agriculture, it has inverse relationships with
the reservoir capacity as it is the main reason of sedimentation deposition in the dam. The
process of soil erosion depends on many factors including the physical and chemical properties
of the earth surface and the rate of flow of rain water. The flow of runoff is the characteristic of
high rainfalls and topography of the catchment areas. Thus, the amount of rainfall in the
catchment area has a strong impact on sediments load rate of the reservoir. Poor management of
erosion prone areas has resulted in the flooding and rapid filling of water reservoirs. Agriculture
is the main source of economy in Pakistan. Thus, the important of soil erosion and water
reservoir management in the country cannot be ignored. Soil erosion and the sedimentation
deposition in the water reservoir can thus both economic and environment losses in the country.
Sediment yield, usually expressed as matric short tons (MST) per annum, is a weight of soil that
passes through a stream with water at the outlet of a watershed. Million tons of sediment depart
from watersheds every year. A signification portion deposit at the bottom of reservoirs and
continuously reduce the water storage capacity. Sediment discharge is sensitive to climate
change and a range of human activities within its watershed. Studies have revealed that climate
change could significantly affect soil erosion rates and sediment yield has also evaluated future
climate change impacts on hydrological and sediment transport processes.
Changes in climate have been observed in the past decades, and more changes have been
projected for the coming decades (IPCC, 2007). Climate models estimate that the global mean
atmospheric temperature is likely to increase by 1.8 to 4.0 ◦C by the end of the 21st century,
depending on various greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and general circulation
models (GCMs) (IPCC, 2007). An increase in global temperature is expected to increase
evapotranspiration and to cause precipitation changes, which will significantly affect the
hydrological regimes of many river system. Many studies have shown that climate change could
significantly affect soil erosion rates and sediment flux.
Geographical Location, population density, and poverty have made countries in South Asia,
including Pakistan, highly vulnerable to climate change. Since climate change system and water
cycles are closely related, any change in climate will alter the hydrological cycle temporally and
spatially, affecting water resources and water related issues. An increase in temperature will
disturb the hydrological cycle, ultimately affecting evapotranspiration. Many studies have shown
that a change in future climate will significantly change future runoff. Changes in temperature
and precipitation significantly alter the generation and transport sediment.
Climate change impact on the water resources is likely to affect irrigation system of Pakistan. It
has potential to affect the installed power capacity of the country as well. Changes in flow
magnitude in Indus River are likely to raise tensions among the provinces, especially within the
downstream areas because of reduced water flows in the dry season and higher flows and
resulting flood problems during the wet season. Changes in climate may also increase the
occurrence of hydrological extremes such as droughts and flood. This situation demands to
investigate the climate change impact on the present and future water better strategies for water
resource planning and management in terms of formulation of policies for investments in
irrigation system, agriculture, hydropower production and flood protection measures.
Impact of climate change on regional hydrological regimes vary from basin to basin. Potential
impacts on hydrological processes may include evapotranspiration, water temperature,
streamflow volume, timing, frequency and magnitude of runoff, soil moisture, and severity of
floods. These would impact other environmental variables such as sedimentation, plant growth
and nutrient flow into waterbodies. The results of such hydrological changes would affect almost
every aspect of human life i.e., agricultural productivity, water supply for urban and industrial
use, power generation, wild life and biotic ecosystems. Climate change and global hydrological
cycles play an important role in hydrological research as the results from these studies and their
quantitative analysis (hydrological impact on climate change) are helpful for better
understanding of potential hydrological risks for future water management planning.

CHAPTER TWO: STUDY AREA

Katzarah dam is located on the downstream of the confluence of three rivers, namely the
Indus River, Shiok River and Shigar River. The dam site is about 18 km downstream of Skardu
and would create storage. At this location the height of Skardu Dam is fixed as 310 feet, length
3700 feet and storage capacity as 8 MAF. It will have a potential of 35 MAF storage capacity
and 15,000 MW of hydel power. Katzarah Dam site on the Indus is unique because it has the
narrowest dam site in the world. It is about 300 feet at the bed level. Against this, Kalabagh Dam
is two miles long and Tarbela is 8000 feet long. Katzarah is unique because it will function as
Watershed Management dam by stopping silt erosion from the world’s highly erodible soil in
Skardu valley, prolonging the lifespan of Basha Dam from 80 years to 800 years and extend
lifespan of Tarbela by 50 years. Katzarah is unique because it is the tallest dam in the world.
Katzarah is unique because it has six times the storage capacity of Basha Dam or Kalabagh Dam.
Katzarah Dam’s storage capacity is 35 maf the third largest in the world after Aswan Dam and
Three Gorges Dam. Katzarah is unique for Pakistan because it has the potential to produce up to
15,000 MW of hydropower, the second largest in the world after Three Gorges Dam. Katzarah
has excellent capacity-inflow ratio on the Indus that gives long life span. Katzarah is unique
because it will have 1000 years of lifespan. Katzarah is unique because it is the cheapest dam per
maf of storage, per MW of hydropower generation, per year of lifespan and per year of service
value.
The Indus River has a few large and many small tributaries.The total area of Indus river basin is
about 970, 000 km2 . Upper Indus Basin (UIB) that lies between the source of Indus river and
Tarbela reservoir covering a basin area of about 175, 000 km2 (NESPAK, 1997). Major
tributaries of UIB region include Shyok, Gilgit, Hunza and Astore rivers. Since the UIB
constitutes a major part of HindukushKarakorum-Himalaya (HKH) region, the terms. . Some 80
% of total yield occurs in only 6-10 weeks of an average year.
Seasonal snowmelt and melting of glacier ice are both main contributors of river discharge,
which is obviously increased during summer because of higher temperature. Almost 80-90 %
area of UIB is snow covered with occasional exception of 60 % in winter season. The UIB lacks
major lakes and large forests and about one quarter of the area is occupied by glaciers.
Sand, silt, and clay are the major constituents of sediment. The percentage distribution of sand,
clay and silt particles in each sediment measuring and ach sub-basin, hydro-meteorological
network and sediment measuring. The Poonch River Basin contributes maximum sediment
(43.8%), and Kanshi River Basin contributes a minimum sediment (6.1%).
Fig; Katzarah Dam
 CHAPTER THREE: LITERATURE REVIEW
(Babur et al., 2020). studied assessment of extreme climate and land use change impact on
sediment yield in a mountainous trans boundary watershed of India and Pakistan. This study
discusses the consequences of climate and land use change on the sediment yield at Mangla Dam
using General Circulation Models (GCMs), Land change Modeler (LCM), Soil and water
Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model after calibration and validation. The conclusion of the study is
that with the increase in temperature, sediment yield is projected to increase. Sediment yield is
linked with extreme events. With the increase in a number of extreme events, sediment yield is
projected to increase. This study also indicate that the Sub-basins in which have more forest
cover have shown a deep decline in sediment yield. (B. Shrestha et al., 2013) studied the impact
of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River Basin in Nam Ou Basin, Lao PDR. In
this study, calculated future climate in terms of temperature and precipitation using four GCMs
that performed well in Mekong Region, Regional Climate Model named as PRECIS which he
downscaled using delta change approach and SWAT Model to asses’ future change in sediment
flux. The conclusion of the study is that uncertainties in climate change impact should be taken
into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.(Azim et al., 2016)
studied the site-specific impact of climate change on sediment yield has been assessed for the
Narran Watershed, Pakistan. In this study, on two scenarios A2 and B2 for calculated future
climate in terms of precipitation and temperature using GCMs that performed well in Narran
Watershed, General Circulation Model named as HaDCM3 which he downscaled for time
horizon and SHETRAN model to asses’ future sediment yield. The conclusion of the study is
that the climate change and variability are influencing the watershed, and suspended sediment
yield is likely to increase in the future .(Azari et al., 2016). studied the impact of climate change on
streamflow and sediment yield from the Gorganroud river basin in the North of Iran using soil
and water assessment tool (SWAT). In this study, on three General circulation models for the
A1F1, A2 and B1 emission scenarios, respectively, this implies that the impact of climate change
on sediment yield is greater than on streamflow. The conclusion of the study is that there is
strong impact of climate change and reflected the importance of incorporating such analysis into
adaptive management.(Chen et al., 2020) studied the climate change impact on soil Erosion and
sediment yield in a Gaoping River basin, which is among the largest basins in Southern Taiwan.
The study was analyzed for the influence of climate change on sediment yield variation,
sediment transport and erosion deposition. Model used for the study was A1B-S Climate Change
Scenario which showed that total erosion volume and total sediment yield in the watershed will
increase by 4-25% and 8-65% respectively in future. (Bussi et al., 2014) studied the impact of
climate change on sediment yield in a highly erodible Mediterranean catchment areas. In this
study, the implement a sediment model by taking advantage of sediment proxy information
provided by reservoir bottom deposits and to use it for climate change assessment in a
Mediterranean catchment. For this study TETIS model was used which showed a general
decrease in soil moisture and water discharge. Sediment yield showed a clear reduction under the
A2 scenario but increased under the B2 scenario. The conclusion of the study is that
methodology for implementing a distributed sediment model by exploiting reservoir
sedimentation volumes. If methodology can be applied to a wide range of catchments, given the
high availability of reservoir sedimentation data. How such a model can be used in a measure of
the impact of climate change on soil erosion and sediment yield. (Phan et al., 2011) studied
impact of climate change on stream discharge and sedimentation in Northern Viet Nam using
soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). In this study, on three scenarios B1 B2 B3 which
represented low, medium and high level of greenhouse gas emission. The conclusion of the study
is that stream discharge is likely to increase in future during the wet season which will result in
increase in sedimentation.(S. Shrestha et al., 2020) studied the Evaluation of adaptation options
for reducing soil erosion due to climate change in the Swat River Basin of Pakistan. In this study,
three regional climate models: REMO, CNRM, and MPI under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were
downscaled using linear scaling techniques to create climate change scenarios in the Swat River
Basin of Pakistan. The relationships between climate, discharge, and sediment yield was
analyzed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT).Provision of terraces, silt fences, a
sediment basin, check dam, filterstrips, and grassed waterway reduce the sediment yield in the
basin by 73, 66, 65, 58, 54and 48% respectively. (Butt et al., 2011) studied the impact of rainfall
on soil erosion and consequently on sedimentation deposition in Mangla dam reservoir using
Shuttle radar topographic Models (SRTM). The conclusion of the study is that the better soil
management can reduce the sedimentation load in the reservoirs. (Babur et al., 2016) assessed
the climate change impact on reservoir inflows using multiple climate models under RCPs in
Mangla Dam, Pakistan. In this study, Bias Correction on GCMs of temperature and precipitation
data. Developed SWAT model to study the streamflow for future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-
2070, 2071-2100 and compared with baseline data of 1981-2010. The conclusion of the study is
that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame
appropriate guideline for planning and management.(Khan et al., 2020) studied the Impacts of
Climate Change on the Water Availability, Seasonality and Extremes in the Upper Indus Basin
(UIB). Soil and water assessment tool” (SWAT) with new climate datasets and better spatial and
altitudinal representation with combinations models (general circulation model/regional climate
model (GCMs _ RCMs) was used. It concluded that RCP4.5, mean annual flows are projected to
increase from9.5–29.4%forthemid-century(2041 2070)period, while for the late century(2071–
2100)period, a milder increase of only 10.2–19.1% is predicted. Similarly, all mean annual flow
projections under RCP 8.5—except those based on model IPSL-MR-RCA4—show similar
trends, with increases of 15.9–29.7% for the mid- and of only 9–27.5% for the late centuries.
(Garee et al., 2017) studied the Hydrological Modeling of the Upper Indus Basin, A Case Study
from a High-Altitude Glacierzed Catchment Hunza. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
model was combined with a temperature index and elevation band algorithm was applied to the
Hunza watershed, where snow and glacier-melt are the major contributor to river flow and
calibrated for the years 1998–2004 and validated for the years 2008–2010. SWAT model can be
used to devise effective strategies for future sustainable water management in the region, while
combating vulnerabilities against floods and water storage in downstream water reservoirs

CHAPTER FOUR: PROBLEM STATEMENT

Water resources are facing considerable uncertainties at the regional, national, and local levels
due to the impacts of climate change. The assessment of climate change impacts on the sediment
cycle is currently a primary concern.

CHAPTER FIVE: RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

The overall objective of this research is to increase the life of the proposed Katzarah Reservoir
under the impact of climate change. However, the specific objectives are the following:

1. To predict the future precipitation and temperature in the study area based on selected
climate models output.
2. To quantify the impact of climate change on the sediment yield of the river basin using
the hydrologic model with the historical and forecasted climate data.
3. To analyze the various reservoir and sediment management alternatives.
4. To select the best suitable alternative to increase the life of the proposed Katzarah
Reservoir under climate change.

CHAPTER SIX: METHODOLOGY

The present study will involve the followings;

1) Data collection of rainfall, temperature stream flow, and sediment yield from several
climate and gauging stations in the Upper Indus River Basin, Pakistan.
2) Different climate models will be analyzed and compared with the observed values of
temperature and precipitation data to select the appropriate climate model for the study
area.
3) Future climate projection for the periods will be downscaled from the selected climate
model and bias correction will be carried out.
4) The impact of climate change on sediment yield for the future periods at Katzarah Dam
will be quantified.
5) The change in the projected sediment yield will be analyzed by comparing it with the
historical sediment yield.
6) Then the life of Katzarah Dam will be evaluated under projected sediment yield.
7) Various reservoir and sediment management alternatives will be analyzed using the latest
techniques.
8) Finally, the selection of the best suitable sediment management alternative to increase the
life of the reservoir.
Work flow chart

Collection of Historical Climate Data

Raw RCMs data under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5

Bias correction Linear scaling

Future Climate using RCMs

(Objective 1)

Hydrologic Modeling (SWAT)

Projected Sediment Yield

(Objective II)

Analysis of various reservoir and sediment management

alternatives (Objective III)

Selection of the best suitable sediment management alternative to increase the life of
reservoir (Objective IV)

Figure 1: A framework to study the life of the reservoir under climate change
 CHAPTER SEVEN: OUTCOME AND UTILIZATION OF
RESEARCH RESULTS
This research aims to study the impact of climate change on sediment yield and its
management to increase the life of Katzarah Reservoir in the Upper Indus River Basin,
Pakistan. It can be expected the following outputs from this study;

1) Future precipitation and temperature of the selected stations of the basin.

2) Sediment yield trends of the basin for the future time series.
3) Life of Katzarah dam under the present and future time series of stream flows.
4) Climate change impacts the life of the proposed Katzarah dam.
5) Best suitable sediment management alternative for the proposed Katzarah
Reservoir.
6) The results of this study will be very useful for the WAPDA in order to increase
the life of the proposed reservoir under climate change.

CHAPTER EIGHT: RESEARCH TIME TABLE

For this research 4 months are required to achieve the objectives. The breakup of time is given
below in Table 1.
 Time period (Month & Date)

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ju

Submission
of Proposal

Collection of
Data

Analysis of
Data and
Development
of Models

Execution of
Model

Calibration
and
Validation of
Model

Thesis
Writeup

Final
Defence

Table 1: Schedule of Work

1
CHAPTER NINE: REFERENCES
1) Azari, M., Moradi, H. R., Saghafian, B., & Faramarzi, M. (2016). Climate change
impacts on streamflow and sediment yield in the North of Iran. Hydrological Sciences
Journal, 61(1), 123–133. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.967695
2) Azim, F., Shakir, A. S., Habib-ur-Rehman, & Kanwal, A. (2016). Impact of climate
change on sediment yield for Naran watershed, Pakistan. International Journal of
Sediment Research, 31(3), 212–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsrc.2015.08.002
3) Babur, M., Babel, M. S., Shrestha, S., Kawasaki, A., & Tripathi, N. K. (2016).
Assessment of climate change impact on reservoir inflows using multi climate-models
under RCPs-the case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan. Water (Switzerland), 8(9).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w8090389
4) Babur, M., Shrestha, S., Bhatta, B., Datta, A., & Ullah, H. (2020). Integrated
assessment of extreme climate and landuse change impact on sediment yield in a
mountainous transboundary watershed of India and Pakistan. Journal of Mountain
Science, 17(3), 624–640. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-019-5547-z
5) Bussi, G., Francés, F., Horel, E., López-Tarazón, J. A., & Batalla, R. J. (2014).
Modelling the impact of climate change on sediment yield in a highly erodible
Mediterranean catchment. Journal of Soils and Sediments, 14(12), 1921–1937.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-014-0956-7
6) Butt, M. J., Mahmood, R., & Waqas, A. (2011). Sediments deposition due to soil
erosion in the watershed region of Mangla Dam. Environmental Monitoring and
Assessment, 181(1–4), 419–429. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-010-1838-0
7) Chen, C. N., Tfwala, S. S., & Tsai, C. H. (2020). Climate change impacts on soil
erosion and sediment yield in a watershed. Water (Switzerland), 12(8).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082247
8) Garee, K., Chen, X., Bao, A., Wang, Y., & Meng, F. (2017). Hydrological modeling
of the upper indus basin: A case study from a high-altitude glacierized catchment
Hunza. Water (Switzerland), 9(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9010017
9) Khan, A. J., Koch, M., & Tahir, A. A. (2020). Impacts of climate change on thewater
availability, seasonality and extremes in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Sustainability
(Switzerland), 12(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041283
10) Phan, D. B., Wu, C. C., & Hsieh, S. C. (2011). Impact of climate change on stream
discharge and sediment yield in Northern Viet Nam. Water Resources, 38(6), 827–
836. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807811060133
11) Shrestha, B., Babel, M. S., Maskey, S., Van Griensven, A., Uhlenbrook, S., Green, A.,
& Akkharath, I. (2013). Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong
River basin: A case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR. Hydrology and Earth
System Sciences, 17(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1-2013
12) Shrestha, S., Sattar, H., Khattak, M. S., Wang, G., & Babur, M. (2020). Evaluation of

2
adaptation options for reducing soil erosion due to climate change in the Swat River
Basin of Pakistan. Ecological Engineering, 158(November 2019), 106017.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2020.106017