Eos, Vol. 89, No.
14, 1 April 2008
EOS, TRANSACTIONS, AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Continued Earthquake Hazard
in Northern Sumatra
PAGES 133–134
The occurrence of two large earthquakes
(Mw = 8.4 and Mw = 7.9) along the Sumatran
west coast on 12 September 2007 as well as
an Mw = 7.4 event on 20 February 2008 have
again put the high earthquake hazard of
this region into focus. These events are the
most recent in a series of major subduction
zone earthquakes that began with the great
Mw = 9.3 event of 26 December 2004 followed
by an Mw = 8.7 event on 28 March 2005
[Bilham, 2005; Lay et al., 2005; Stein and
Okal, 2005]. The major subduction zone
earthquakes have been propagating south-
ward along the Sunda trench, and the
remaining stress is expected to be released
along the subduction zone in a long stretch
from the Andaman Sea in the north to the
southernmost extension of the recent rup-
tures, especially in the southernmost part
close to the Sunda Strait (Figure 1). Also,
there is an additional and significant hazard
due to potential earthquakes along the
Great Sumatran Fault (GSF), a major right-
lateral strike-slip fault parallel to the western
coast of Sumatra. The GSF accommodates
the component of plate convergence parallel
to the trench, where strain partitioning is a
result of the oblique collision along the
Sunda trench.
During the past two centuries, there has
been no significant earthquake along the
northern part of the GSF, which is therefore
considered a seismic gap (i.e., a region
within a seismically active area with a
longer-lasting low level of activity) [Bellier
et al., 1997]. As stresses build up continu-
ally as a consequence of plate convergence,
the probability of an earthquake increases
with the time elapsed since the previous
event. In the case of the northern GSF, a
large amount of stress is expected to have
accumulated along this part of the fault,
which will be released in a future earth-
quake. Furthermore, occurrences of sub-
duction earthquakes along the Sunda trench
have brought the structure closer to rupture
BY M. B. SØRENSEN AND K. ATAKAN
[Nalbant et al., 2005]. The GSF is assumed
to be capable of producing earthquakes
with magnitudes of up to M = 7.9 [Petersen
et al., 2004], and the largest known event
occurred in 1892 with M = 7.7 near the city
of Sibolga, approximately 570 kilometers
southeast of Banda Aceh (see Figure 1). It is
therefore urgent that the seismic hazard in
Banda Aceh and its surroundings be reeval-
uated in light of the recent earthquakes.
This article illustrates how simulation of
ground motions for a likely worst-case sce-
nario earthquake along the northernmost
segment of GSF can provide valuable infor-
mation about the current hazard level in
the region. Simulation results indicate that
the occurrence of an M w = 7.7 event with
rupture propagating toward Banda Aceh
would have severe consequences for the
region in terms of loss of life and material
damage. Furthermore, we emphasize that
smaller earthquakes also can cause wide-
spread damage in the region, especially
considering possible amplification effects
due to local geological conditions.
Earthquake Activity in the Sumatra Region
The occurrence of earthquakes in the
Sumatra region is controlled mainly by the
north-northeast oriented convergence of
the Indian-Australian lithospheric plate
toward the Sunda plate. The rate of conver-
gence is approximately 6 centimeters per
year [McCaffrey et al., 2000], and it gives
rise to an oblique collision resulting in the
partitioning of the accumulated strain. The
component of this motion perpendicular to
the trench is accommodated by pure thrust
earthquakes along the subduction zone.
The trench-parallel component of the plate
motion (of the order of 3.8 centimeters per
year [McCaffrey et al., 2000]), on the other
hand, is accommodated by large strike-slip
earthquakes that occur mainly along the GSF.
Unfortunately, the record of historical
earthquakes along the GSF is not complete
prior to the nineteenth century. Since 1822,
there have been more than 20 earthquakes
with M > 6, with eight of these at M > 7.
These events were spread across the GSF
VOLUME 89 NUMBER 14
1 APRIL 2008
PAGES 133–140
but occurred mostly in the central and
southern parts. Recurrence times for major
earthquakes are estimated to be of the
order of 200 years in the northern part of
the GSF, increasing to 400 years for the
southernmost part of the fault (approxi-
mately south of Bengkulu (Figure 1))
[Bellier et al., 1997]. The mentioned lack of
large earthquakes in the northern part of
the GSF during the past two centuries, in
combination with the estimated approxi-
mately 200-year recurrence time, indicates
that the probability of a future earthquake
here is high. Apart from the GSF, another
area with increased earthquake probability
is the southernmost part of the Sumatra
subduction zone, south of the recent thrust
earthquakes. Continued southeastward
migration of the ruptures along the plate
interface may have significant consequences
for population centers such as Jakarta.
Effect of Fault Interactions
on Seismic Hazard
Following the 26 December 2004 earth-
quake, there was much focus on the possi-
ble implications of static stress transfer on
neighboring segments of the trench. Cou-
lomb stress transfer modeling (i.e., model-
ing of changes in the stress field induced
by an earthquake) [McCloskey et al., 2005]
estimated a stress increase along the trench
south of the 2004 rupture. These estimates
were then manifested by the 28 March
2005 earthquake that occurred south of
the 2004 rupture, and again by the 12 Sep-
tember 2007 earthquakes, which were in
the region of increased loading following
the 2005 event. The most recent earth-
quake, on 20 February 2008, on the other
hand, occurred in the region between the
2004 and 2005 events and thereby most
probably represents the release of remain-
ing stresses in this area. In addition to the
loading along the trench, a positive load-
ing of up to 9 bars was reported for an
approximately 300-kilometer-long segment
along the GSF near Banda Aceh [McClos-
key et al., 2005] after the 2004 earthquake.
The occurrence of the 2005 event was
shown to have extended this loading along
the GSF farther south [Nalbant et al., 2005].
It is expected that the occurrence of the
most recent events (2007 and 2008) has
further increased the loading on the GSF,
leaving little doubt that the northern seg-
 Eos, Vol. 89, No. 14, 1 April 2008
ment of GSF has been brought closer to
failure.

Estimated Ground Motions Due to a

Scenario Earthquake Along the GSF
Broadband-frequency (0.1–10 hertz)
ground motions due to a scenario earth-
quake on the GSF were calculated using a
hybrid procedure combining a determinis-
tic calculation at low frequencies with a
semi-stochastic simulation at high frequen-
cies. This methodology was recently applied
to the 26 December 2004 earthquake
[Sørensen et al., 2007a]. As input for the
modeling, the earthquake source is defined
in terms of the location and geometry of
the rupturing fault and its asperities (i.e.,
regions of high slip), together with rupture
parameters such as rise time, rupture veloc-
ity, stress drop, and seismic moment. The
seismic waves generated from this complex
finite fault model are propagated through
the surrounding crust, which is represented
by the seismic velocity structure and attenu-
ation characteristics.
Using this approach, we have simulated
the bedrock ground motions due to an
Mw = 7.7 scenario earthquake rupturing the
190-kilometer-long Aceh segment of the GSF
(Figure 1). We have chosen to simulate the
rupture of this particular segment because
it is where the largest increase in Coulomb
stress is observed. Furthermore, the segment
is located at the shortest distance from
Banda Aceh and therefore poses the greatest Fig. 1. Tectonic overview of the study area. Major faults are shown as gray lines, and the scenario
hazard. fault plane is highlighted with a red line and a star marking the rupture initiation point. Selected
focal mechanisms only for strike-slip earthquakes in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT)
The earthquake hazard in the region is
database are shown. Outlines of important thrust earthquakes are indicated with yellow lines,
expressed by maps of peak ground acceler-
and outlines of strike-slip earthquakes are indicated with white lines. The M = 7.4 thrust earth-
ation (PGA) and peak ground velocity quake on 20 February 2008 is shown as a yellow star. Only the southernmost part of the
(PGV) at bedrock level, calculated based 26 December 2004 rupture is included.The black arrow indicates the direction of plate convergence
on the simulated seismograms (Figure 2). in the region.Original color image appears at the back of this volume.
The distributions of the ground motion val-
ues are dominated by the direction of rup-
ture propagation toward the northwest. ground motions affecting more common giving rise to smaller-size events and hence
Maximum values of PGV (170 centimeters per low- and intermediate-height buildings. smaller ground motions. Therefore, the sce-
second) and PGA (650 centimeters per second Another important aspect related to the nario of an M = 7.7 earthquake represents
squared) are concentrated around the loca- expected damage is the ongoing recon- the worst case and should be considered as
tion of the proposed asperities. struction in the region after the 2004 earth- a conservative estimate of the seismic haz-
Considering the simulation results for a quake and tsunami. This work still is far ard. However, considering the potential
site located in Banda Aceh, it is clear that from finalized, and therefore many build- local site effects, even smaller earthquakes
strong ground shaking can be expected ings may experience increased vulnerability with different rupture propagation direc-
here with bedrock accelerations reaching due to already existing damage, especially tions could cause severe damage. In addi-
up to 200 centimeters per second squared when the expected duration of the strong tion to the uncertainties associated with the
and velocities of up to 90 centimeters per shaking is taken into account. segmentation of the GSF, the model param-
second. The duration of simulated strong The current study does not account for eters of the earthquake scenario (such as
ground shaking is 20–30 seconds, which is local site effects. The amplification of ground rise time, rupture velocity, stress drop, and
important for the damage capability of the motion due to local unconsolidated sediments so forth) are based on a number of assump-
event. is likely to take place in the region, and this tions. These uncertainties can be reduced
The simulation results show that strong would lead to much higher ground motions when the earthquake source characteristics
ground shaking will affect the northern than predicted here. The effects of local site are better understood [Sørensen et al., 2007b].
Sumatra region in the case of a large earth- amplification thus should be considered On the basis of the recent sequence of
quake along the GSF. The frequency content before the ground motion simulation results large thrust earthquakes since 2004 along
of simulated ground motion indicates the can be used in any ongoing risk mitigation the subduction interface, it is estimated that
strongest shaking effects at frequencies of efforts. a large earthquake is likely to break along
about 0.3–0.4 Hertz, which is expected The earthquake scenario presented here the GSF. Although the timing of the event is
mainly to have an effect on the tall build- is not the only possible scenario for stress unknown, it is definitely brought closer to
ings in Banda Aceh. However, strong accel- release along the northern GSF. Another rupture due to static stress transfer from the
erations, as indicated from the simulated likely scenario is that the northernmost part large thrust earthquakes. Considering that
waveforms, also emphasize higher-frequency of the GSF ruptures in shorter segments, the last large known earthquake along the

GSF occurred in 1892 (M = 7.7) along the
central part of the fault, the earthquake haz-
ard in northern Sumatra cannot be neglected.
This underlines the urgent need for risk
mitigation efforts in the affected areas.
Acknowledgments
We thank Jens Havskov and Gottfried
Grünthal for constructive comments and
Mohammad Raeesi for contributions to
Figure 1.
References
Bellier, O., M. Sébrier, S. Pramumijoyo, T. Beaudouin,
H. Harjono, I. Bahar, and O. Forni (1997), Paleoseismicity
and seismic hazard along the Great Sumatran Fault
(Indonesia), J. Geodyn., 24, 169–183.
Bilham, R. (2005), A flying start, then a slow slip,
Science, 308, 1126–1127.
Lay, T., et al. (2005), The great Sumatra-Andaman
earthquake of December 26, 2004, Science, 308,
1127–1133.
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J. F. Genrich, C. W. Stevens, S. S. O. Puntodewo, and
C. Subarya (2000), Strain partitioning during
oblique plate convergence in northern Sumatra:
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numerical modeling. J. Geophys. Res., 105(B12),
28,363–28,376.
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quake risk from co-seismic stress, Nature, 434, 291.
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J. McCloskey (2005), Earthquake risk on the Sunda
trench, Nature, 435, 756.
New Databases Reveal 200 Years of Change
on the Mississippi River System
PAGES 134–135
Over the past two centuries, the Missis-
sippi River system (MRS) has been dra-
matically altered to facilitate commercial
navigation and provide flood control.
Because of its long history of modifica-
tion, rigorous measurements including
maps, charts, surveys, and other data con-
cerning the MRS are available from the
past 200 years or longer. Comparison
between historical reference conditions
and modern conditions can document
changes related to natural processes,
human impacts, and river management
practices and policies.
To show these changes, we have assem-
bled a hydrologic database of approxi-
mately 7 million measurements and a geo-
spatial database consisting of 4878 map
sheets dating back to 1765. The databases
include nearly all available data sources
for the navigable Mississippi River, the
lower Missouri River, and the Illinois River
(>4500 kilometers of waterways; see Fig-
ure 1, in the electronic supplement to this
Eos issue; http://www.agu.org/eos_elec).
We have digitized all 81 map sets and geo-
referenced 48 of those map sets, meaning
that the maps have been referenced in
physical space for use in a geographic
Eos, Vol. 89, No. 14, 1 April 2008
Fig. 2. Distribution of bedrock ground motions obtained for the scenario earthquake. (a) Peak
ground velocity. (b) Peak ground acceleration.The gray line indicates the location of the rupturing
fault; the star is the rupture initiation point. Original color image appears at the back of this volume.
Petersen, M. D., J. Dewey, S. Hartzell, C. Mueller,
S. Harmsen, A. D. Frankel, and K. Rukstales (2004),
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra,
Indonesia and across the southern Malaysian pen-
insula, Tectonophysics, 390, 141–158.
Sørensen, M. B., K. Atakan, and N. Pulido (2007a),
Simulated strong ground motion for the great
M 9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 Decem-
ber 2004, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 97, S139–S151.
Sørensen, M. B., N. Pulido, and K. Atakan (2007b),
Sensitivity of ground-motion simulations to earth-
quake source parameters: A case study for Istanbul,
Turkey, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 97, 881–900.
information system. The purpose for
constructing these databases is to central-
ize and standardize these data sources
and to make them broadly available for
research and management. In this article we
describe the data, the databases, and their
dissemination.
Hydrologic Data
Stage measurements (water surface eleva-
tion) on the MRS date to 1796 at Natchez,
Miss., although system-wide stage collection
began only in 1871 when the U.S. secretary
of the Army was directed to establish a
flood warning system. Over time, five differ-
ent agencies have monitored these stations:
the National Weather Service (NWS), the
Mississippi River Commission (MRC), the
U.S. Army Signal Corps, the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers (USACE), and the U.S. Geologi-
cal Survey (USGS). Today, the USACE main-
tains the stage network on the MRS.
Discharges (the amount of water per unit
of time) were measured on the MRS by the
USACE as early as 1838. Early discharges
were compiled primarily to construct rating
curves, which graphically relate stage to
discharge. Additional discharge measure-
ments were made between 1891 and the
1930s to update or extend these early rating
Stein, S., and E. A. Okal (2005), Speed and size of the
Sumatra earthquake, Nature, 434, 581–582.
Author Information
Mathilde B. Sørensen, GeoForschungs-
Zentrum Potsdam, Germany; E-mail: sorensen
@gfz-potsdam.de; and Kuvvet Atakan, Depart-
ment of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Norway
curves. Around 1930, the USGS began col-
lecting measured discharges on the upper
Mississippi River (UMR), Illinois River (ILR),
lower Missouri River (LOM), and middle
Mississippi River (MMR), while discharges
on the lower Mississippi River (LMR) were
measured by the USACE. Today, the USGS
and the USACE continue to collect discharge
measurements at selected stage-measurement
stations to update rating curves.
Hydrologic Database
We compiled nearly 6 million stage mea-
surements for 253 stations along the MRS
(see Figure 1, in the electronic supplement).
The majority of stages were obtained digi-
tally either via data queries using a Web-
based USACE utility (http://www.rivergages
.com) or through site visits to USACE district
offices. Nondigital stage data also were
gathered during site visits and from other
archival sources. In addition, we have iden-
tified at least 16 additional stations for
which nondigital stage data are available.
The electronic supplement to this article
also shows compiled daily discharge data
for gaging stations along the MRS. Most dis-
charge data from the UMR, ILR, LOM, and
MMR were acquired from the USGS’s National
Water Information System (http://nwis
.waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/sw). Some addi-
tional early (pre-1930) discharges were
added from the USACE and from nondigital
archival sources. All discharge data from
 Eos,
Eos,Vol.
Vol.88,
89No.
No.1,
14,21
January 2007
April 2008

Page 133
XXX Fig. 1. Tectonic overview of the study area. Major faults are shown as gray lines, and the scenario
fault plane is highlighted with a red line and a star marking the rupture initiation point. Selected
focal mechanisms only for strike-slip earthquakes in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT)
database are shown. Outlines of important thrust earthquakes are indicated with yellow lines,
and outlines of strike-slip earthquakes are indicated with white lines. The M = 7.4 thrust earth-
quake on 20 February 2008 is shown as a yellow star. Only the southernmost part of the
26 December 2004 rupture is included.The black arrow indicates the direction of plate convergence
in the region.

Page 134
Fig. 2. Distribution of bedrock ground motions obtained for the scenario earthquake. (a) Peak
ground velocity. (b) Peak ground acceleration.The gray line indicates the location of the rupturing
fault; the star is the rupture initiation point.