Semiconductors & Related

Technology
August 11, 2022

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd.

Lowering Target Price
(AOSL)
Thesis Playing Out as Expected on Execution and Manufacturing Rating: Buy
Flexibility; Maintain Buy, PT to $60 Current Price $37.81
Price Target $60.00
► AOSL continues to execute well with surprising resilience despite the deteriorating 52-Wk Range $24.32 - $69.99
consumer environment where the company has meaningful exposure. We remain Shares Outstanding (mm) 27
Market Cap (mm) $1,023
convicted in the longer-term growth story and continued fundamental Enterprise Value (mm) $786
improvements and see the quarter’s performance and guidance as evidence of the Average Volume (000s) 569
improving positioning of the firm’s products and its manufacturing flexibility. While Net Cash/Share
certain end markets are beginning to see inventory corrections, the ability to Stockholders Equity (mm)
Sector Weight Overweight
quickly shift production to areas of strength is one of the key tenants of our
investment thesis. Tier one customers are at their highest level in the company’s
history, and we are encouraged the underlying structural improvements of the
business are becoming visible, enabling continued growth in periods of less
favorable demand. In our view, the company’s higher quality portfolio and
customer base is enabling AOSL to better navigate the downturn and deliver ahead
of peers. We think the current valuation is among the most attractive across the
semi complex and remain convicted in our thesis as it continues to play out. We
maintain our Buy rating but adjust our PT to $60 from $70.
► Demand remains ahead of capacity with customers still on allocation, primarily in
the higher performance components where demand remains strong. We estimate
around half of the business is in the higher performance category.
► The Shanghai assembly and test facility has returned to full operation,
contributing to the upside in the quarter. Expansion at the Oregon fab is slightly
behind schedule on subcontractor labor and material constraints but is expected to David Williams
be online in the March 2023 quarter. (214) 455-0099
dwilliams@benchmarkcompany.com
► The inventory correction in certain markets is visible, but backlog remains healthy
in the high-performance products. However lower end components have begun to
see revisions, especially in markets where consumer demand has been most
challenging. Notably, the softening end demand is clearly being seen, which gives
us confidence the firm is not simply lacking visibility, rather finding the pockets of
strength to pivot supply.
► While smartphones, pcs, appliances, and gaming are generally weak, record
gaming console volumes are expected next quarter with catchup shipments, share
gains, and strength in high performance is supporting the record revenue guidance.
The $1B revenue target by 2024 was reiterated with continued confidence the
business is well positioned to navigate current environment, driven by its internally
owned manufacturing, Tier 1 customer resiliency, and improved product portfolio.

FY Jun Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Prior Total P/E

EPS 2022A $1.06A $1.20A $1.34A $0.95A $4.47E $4.55A 8.3x
2023E $1.21E $1.24E $1.22E $1.34E $5.78E $5.00E 7.6x
2024E $6.00E 6.3x
Revenue (m) 2022A $187.0A $193.3A $203.2A $194.0A $773.6E $777.6A
2023E $210.0E $212.1E $210.6E $221.1E $892.9E $853.7E
2024E $949.6E

For important disclosures,

see Page 5
 Alpha and Omega Semiconductor
Ltd. (AOSL)
August 11, 2022

► September quarter revenue is guided to be $210M at the mid-point, in-line with

consensus. EPS guidance is not provided, but we are modeling $1.21 and compares to the
$1.19 prior consensus expectation. Our prior forecast was admittedly high, anticipating ~
70% of the $20-$25M Shanghai related revenue push out in the June quarter to be
recovered in the in the calendar year second half. However, we were likely too aggressive
given the rapid deceleration in consumer demand during the quarter. Gross margin is
expected to rebound 120 bps to 35% on an improving mix. OpEx is guided to be about flat
sequentially, interest expense to be $1.2M and income taxes around $1.3M.
► Revenue and earnings in F4Q were $194M and $0.95 beating the consensus estimate of
$190M (+2%) and $0.86 (+11%). Demand was strong across the business and remains well
above supply and was aided by better-than-expected output from the Shanghai A&T facility,
which helped drive the upside. Capacity expansion efforts in the Oregon fab have been
delayed slightly, now expected to ramp by C1Q, adding ~$70M of incremental annual
capacity.
► Our $60 price target equates to a 12x P/E multiple on our FY23 (June 23 YE) EPS estimate
of $5.00 and 10x our $6.00 FY24 EPS estimate and compares to the peer group average of
~15.5x (FY23). We view our price target as conservative, reflecting a 30% discount to the
peer group average. When factoring the equity value in the JV, which represents ~$400M
or $14 per share, our $60 share price reflects a 9.2x EPS multiple.

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 Alpha and Omega Semiconductor
Ltd. (AOSL)
August 11, 2022

Figure 1: Product and Segment Mix

FY18A FY19A FY20A 1Q21A 2Q21A 3Q21A 4Q21A FY21A 1Q22A 2Q22A 3Q22A 4Q22A FY22A
Segment Trends JUN - 18 JUN - 19 JUN - 20 SEP - 20 DEC - 20 MAR - 21 JUN - 21 JUN - 21 SEP - 21 DEC - 21 MAR - 22 JUN - 22 JUN - 22
% of Revenue
Computing (graphic cards) 42% 46% 41% 44% 41% 41% 44% 42% 42% 46% 44% 46% 45%
Consumer 21% 18% 19% 24% 23% 22% 21% 23% 22% 20% 22% 19% 21%
Pw r. supply & Ind. 20% 19% 20% 17% 18% 19% 20% 19% 20% 20% 19% 18% 19%
Communications (smartphones) 14% 14% 18% 13% 16% 15% 13% 14% 13% 13% 14% 15% 14%
Services 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2%

Revenue
Computing $175 $207 $191 $67 $65 $70 $77 $279 $79 $88 $90 $90 $346
Consumer $89 $81 $90 $37 $37 $37 $37 $148 $41 $39 $45 $36 $160
Pw r. supply & Ind. $85 $88 $95 $25 $29 $33 $36 $123 $38 $38 $38 $36 $149
Communications $59 $65 $81 $20 $25 $26 $23 $94 $26 $26 $29 $30 $110
Services $12 $7 $7 $3 $3 $3 $4 $12 $4 $3 $2 $3 $12
Total $422 $451 $465 $152 $159 $169 $177 $657 $187 $193 $203 $194 $778

Q/Q ⌂
Computing N/A N/A N/A 36% (3%) 9% 10% N/A 1% 12% 2% (0%) N/A
Consumer N/A N/A N/A 33% 0% 1% 0% N/A 9% (5%) 15% (20%) N/A
Pw r. supply & Ind. N/A N/A N/A 5% 16% 13% 11% N/A 4% (0%) (0%) (5%) N/A
Communications N/A N/A N/A 2% 25% 2% (12%) N/A 14% (1%) 14% 3% N/A
Services N/A N/A N/A 31.1% 6.3% 0.0% 22.3% N/A 12.8% (17.8%) (38.2%) 38.4% N/A
Total N/A N/A N/A 24% 5% 7% 5% N/A 5% 3% 5% (5%) N/A

Y/Y ⌂
Computing 17% 18% (8%) 45% 33% 49% 57% 46% 18% 36% 28% 16% 24%
Consumer (7%) (9%) 11% 71% 74% 87% 36% 64% 11% 5% 20% (4%) 8%
Pw r. supply & Ind. 11% 3% 8% (8%) 15% 71% 52% 29% 51% 30% 16% (1%) 21%
Communications 22% 9% 26% (4%) 20% 34% 14% 16% 27% 0% 12% 32% 17%
Services 0.5% (45.5%) 2.2% 63.1% 64.0% 126.1% 70.4% 77.4% $0 13.3% (29.9%) $0 0.5%
Total 10% 7% 3% 29% 35% 58% 45% 41% 23% 22% 20% 9% 18%

Product Mix $M FY18A FY19A FY20A 1Q21A 2Q21A 3Q21A 4Q21A FY21A 1Q22A 2Q22A 3Q22A 4Q22A FY22A
Pow er Discrete $342.1 $371.8 $391.9 $119.4 $118.5 $122.6 $122.2 $482.7 $130.7 $135.0 $140.6 $138.9 $545.2
Pow er IC $67.1 $70.2 $66.4 $29.5 $37.4 $43.4 $51.5 $161.7 $52.3 $55.1 $60.4 $53.1 $220.9
Packaging and Testing $12.3 $8.9 $6.6 $2.7 $2.9 $3.2 $3.6 $12.5 $4.0 $3.2 $2.2 $2.0 $11.4
Total $421.6 $450.9 $464.9 $151.6 $158.8 $169.2 $177.3 $656.9 $187.0 $193.3 $203.2 $194.0 $777.6

Product Mix %
Pow er Discrete 81.2% 82.5% 84.3% 78.8% 74.6% 72.5% 68.9% 73.5% 69.9% 69.8% 69.2% 71.6% 70.1%
Pow er IC 15.9% 15.6% 14.3% 19.4% 23.5% 25.6% 29.0% 24.6% 28.1% 28.2% 28.8% 26.4% 28.4%
Packaging and Testing 2.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Y/Y ⌂
Pow er Discrete 18.5% 8.7% 5.4% 18.7% 19.3% 40.1% 16.9% 23.2% 9.5% 13.9% 14.7% 13.6% 13.0%
Pow er IC (18.6%) 4.7% (5.5%) 87.3% 122.2% 139.5% 228.1% 143.7% 77.6% 47.4% 39.2% 3.1% 36.6%
Packaging and Testing 1.3% (28.1%) (25.5%) 77.0% 72.1% 163.1% 67.4% 88.5% 47.0% 9.2% (30.3%) (45.2%) (8.4%)
Total 10.0% 7.0% 3.1% 28.6% 34.8% 58.4% 44.9% 41.3% 23.4% 21.7% 20.1% 9.4% 18.4%

Source: The Benchmark Company, LLC

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 Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd. (AOSL)
August 11, 2022

Figure 2: AOSL P&L

AOSL - Alpha and Omega Semiconductor David N. Williams 214-455-0099 dwilliams@benchmarkcompany.com

Income Statement ($MM) FY20A 1Q21A 2Q21A 3Q21A 4Q21A FY21A 1Q22A 2Q22A 3Q22A 4Q22A FY22A 1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E FY23E FY24E
JUN - 20 SEP - 20 DEC - 20 MAR - 21 JUN - 21 JUN - 21 SEP - 21 DEC - 21 MAR - 22 JUN - 22 JUN - 22 SEP - 22 DEC - 22 MAR - 23 JUN - 23 JUN - 23 JUN - 24
Net Revenue $465.0 $151.6 $158.8 $169.2 $177.3 $656.9 $187.0 $193.3 $203.2 $194.0 $777.6 $210.0 $212.1 $210.6 $221.1 $853.7 $949.6
Cost of Revenue 335.2 107.6 108.9 115.3 115.4 447.1 121.1 122.4 128.7 128.4 500.6 136.4 137.3 135.8 142.0 551.5 607.3

Adj. Gross Profit 129.8 44.0 49.9 53.9 61.9 209.8 65.9 70.9 74.5 65.6 276.9 73.5 74.8 74.8 79.1 302.2 342.3

Research & Development 51.3 14.7 15.4 15.6 17.3 63.0 17.8 16.5 16.5 20.4 71.3 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.0 82.8 85.3
SG&A 64.8 17.5 19.7 19.3 20.9 77.5 21.8 24.1 24.6 24.7 95.3 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.0 102.3 105.4

Total Operating Expenses 102.0 28.6 31.5 30.9 32.8 123.9 35.1 33.5 34.0 36.7 139.3 36.7 37.1 37.5 37.9 163.9 159.2
EBIT 27.4 15.4 18.4 23.0 29.1 85.9 30.8 37.4 40.5 28.9 137.6 36.8 37.7 37.3 41.2 153.0 188.5
EBITDAS 51.8 27.6 31.6 35.9 40.9 136.1 44.8 46.7 48.4 36.9 176.8 42.0 42.9 42.1 50.7 177.7 215.8
Interest Income & Other (4.0) (0.5) 0.4 (1.8) (1.5) (3.5) (2.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.6) (2.9) (1.2) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (4.2) (4.0)
Pretax Income 27.2 15.4 18.0 21.2 27.6 82.2 28.6 37.4 40.2 28.0 137.6 35.6 36.7 36.3 40.2 153.0 184.5

Total Income Taxes 0.8 (1.0) (0.7) (1.0) (1.2) (3.9) (1.3) (1.3) (2.3) (0.9) (5.8) (1.2) (1.5) (1.5) (1.6) (5.8) (9.2)

Net Income Cont. Ops 22.6 14.5 17.8 21.4 26.3 79.9 29.3 33.9 38.2 27.1 128.4 34.6 35.5 35.2 38.9 144.2 176.5
Discontinued Operations - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Adjusted Net Income 22.6 14.5 17.8 21.4 26.3 79.9 29.3 33.9 38.2 27.1 128.4 34.6 35.5 35.2 38.9 144.2 176.5

GAAP Net Income (6.6) 9.6 13.7 16.1 19.5 58.8 23.4 383.1 31.7 15.1 453.2 21.9 22.8 22.5 28.3 95.5 126.1

EPS Proforma (Diluted) $0.88 $0.55 $0.65 $0.77 $0.95 $2.93 $1.06 $1.20 $1.34 $0.95 $4.55 $1.21 $1.24 $1.22 $1.34 $5.00 $6.00
GAAP EPS ($0.27) $0.38 $0.54 $0.62 $0.74 $2.28 $0.89 $14.40 $1.18 $0.56 $16.98 $0.81 $0.84 $0.82 $1.03 $3.50 $4.53
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 24.8 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.3 25.7 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.9

Revenue YoY 3.1% 28.7% 34.7% 58.3% 44.9% 41.3% 23.4% 21.7% 20.1% 9.4% 18.4% 12.3% 9.7% 3.6% 14.0% 9.8% 11.2%
Revenue QoQ N/A 23.8% 4.8% 6.5% 4.8% N/A 5.5% 3.4% 5.1% -4.6% N/A 8.3% 1.0% -0.7% 5.0% N/A N/A
EPS YoY -28.0% 114.0% 177.9% 589.2% 221.7% 231.8% 92.2% 84.3% 74.1% 0.4% 55.4% 14.2% 3.2% -9.4% 40.7% 9.9% 23.2%
EPS QoQ N/A 87.0% 17.8% 18.6% 23.0% N/A 11.8% 12.9% 12.1% -29.0% N/A 27.1% 2.0% -1.5% 10.1% N/A N/A
Cost of Revenue 72.1% 71.0% 68.5% 68.1% 65.1% 68.1% 64.7% 63.3% 63.3% 66.2% 64.4% 65.0% 64.7% 64.5% 64.2% 64.6% 64.0%
Proforma Gross Margin 27.9% 29.0% 31.5% 31.9% 34.9% 31.8% 35.3% 36.7% 36.7% 33.8% 35.3% 35.0% 35.3% 35.5% 35.8% 35.4% 36.0%
Incremental Gross Margin 13.2% 35.3% 82.1% 38.2% 51.4% 41.7% 41.1% 78.6% 36.4% 95.9% 55.6% 49.6% 60.3% -0.2% 40.8% 33.2% 41.8%
GAAP Gross Margin 22.1% 28.1% 30.7% 31.1% 34.2% 31.1% 34.5% 35.4% 35.6% 32.6% 34.5% 33.8% 34.1% 34.3% 34.6% 34.2% 35.0%

Research & Development 11.0% 9.7% 9.7% 9.2% 9.7% 9.6% 9.5% 8.5% 8.1% 10.5% 9.2% 9.7% 9.7% 9.9% 9.5% 9.7% 9.0%
SG&A 13.9% 11.6% 12.4% 11.4% 11.8% 11.8% 11.7% 12.5% 12.1% 12.7% 12.3% 12.0% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 12.0% 11.1%
Total Operating Expense 21.9% 18.9% 19.8% 18.3% 18.5% 18.9% 18.8% 17.3% 16.7% 18.9% 17.9% 17.5% 17.5% 17.8% 17.1% 19.2% 16.8%
Operating Profit Margin 6.0% 10.2% 11.6% 13.6% 16.4% 12.5% 16.5% 19.3% 19.9% 14.9% 16.6% 14.8% 15.0% 16.6% 18.3% 16.2% 19.3%
Pretax Margin 5.8% 10.2% 11.4% 12.5% 15.6% 12.5% 15.3% 19.3% 19.8% 14.4% 17.7% 16.9% 17.3% 17.2% 18.2% 17.9% 19.4%
Net Margin 4.9% 9.6% 11.2% 12.6% 14.8% 12.2% 15.7% 17.5% 18.8% 14.0% 16.5% 16.5% 16.7% 16.7% 17.6% 16.9% 18.6%
Tax Rate 1.5% 6.6% 3.7% 4.8% 4.5% 5.1% 4.6% 91.2% 7.2% 3.4% 30.7% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.3% 5.4%

Source: The Benchmark Company, LLC

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 Alpha and Omega Semiconductor
Ltd. (AOSL)
August 11, 2022

Important Disclosures
Analyst Certification
The Benchmark Company, LLC (“Benchmark”) analyst(s) whose name(s) appears on the front page of this research report certifies that the
recommendations and opinions expressed herein accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject
securities or issues discussed herein. Furthermore, no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this research report.

Equity Research Ratings System Benchmark Disclosures as of August 11, 2022

Company Disclosure
Firm-Wide Stock Ratings Distribution
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd. 3
As of June 30, 2022
All Covered Investment
Companies Banking Research Disclosure Legend
Clients
1. In the past 12 months, Benchmark and its affiliates have received
Buy 262 75.7% 54 15.6% compensation for investment banking services from the subject
Hold 63 18.2% 4 1.2% company.
Speculative Buy 18 5.2% 14 4.0%
2. In the past 12 months, Benchmark and its affiliates have managed or
Sell 3 0.9% 0 0%
co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company.
3. Benchmark and its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek
compensation for investment banking services from the subject
Company Ratings company in the next three months.
Buy: Stock is expected to outperform the analyst’s defined 4. The research analyst, a member of the research analyst’s household,
Sector/Industry Index* over the following 6 to 12 months. any associate of the research analyst, or any individual directly
involved in the preparation of this report has a long position in the
Speculative Buy: The stock has a market value below $100M shares or derivatives of the subject company.
and/or a higher financial risk profile. It is expected to The research analyst, a member of the research analyst’s household,
outperform the analyst’s defined sector/industry index over 5.
any associate of the research analyst, or any individual directly
the following 6 to 12 months. involved in preparation of this report has a short position in the
Hold: Stock is expected to perform in-line with the analyst’s shares or derivatives of this subject company.
defined Sector/Industry Index* over the following 6 to 12 6. A member of the research analyst’s household serves as an officer,
director or advisory board member of the subject company.
months.
7. As of the month end immediately preceding the date of publication
Sell: Stock is expected to underperform the analyst’s defined of this report, or the prior month end if publication is within 10 days
Sector/Industry Index* over the following 6 to 12 months. following a month end, Benchmark and its affiliates, in the aggregate,
beneficially owned 1% or more of any class of equity securities of the
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Overweight: Analyst’s defined Sector/Industry Index* is 8. A partner, director, officer, employee or agent of Benchmark, or a
expected to outperform the S&P 500 over the following 6 to member of his/her household, is an officer, director or advisor, board
12 months. member of the subject company and/or one of its subsidiaries.
9. Benchmark makes a market in the securities of the subject company.
Market Weight: Analyst’s defined Sector/Industry Index* is
expected to perform in-line with the S&P 500 over the In the past 12 months, Benchmark, its partners, affiliates, officers or
following 6 to 12 months. 10.
directors, or any analyst involved in the preparation of this report,
Underweight: Analyst’s defined Sector/Industry Index* is has provided non-investment banking securities-related services to
expected to underperform the S&P 500 over the following 6 the subject company for remuneration.
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for remuneration.

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Investment Risk
The Chongqing JV fab facility could fail and would materially
impact the company's ability to manufacture its products and
could negatively impact AOSL's customers, partners, and
liquidity. We believe the revenue trajectory can be achieved
based on existing market conditions and design wins the firm has
publicly acknowledged. If the market or macro conditions
deteriorate, the company would likely be negatively impacted,
which would adversely affect our revenue growth expectations.
We anticipate incremental improvements in the margin profile as
higher-value new products begin to contribute in addition to the
China fab coming online and efficiencies are recognized within a
one- to two-year period. If the company fails to achieve these
efficiencies or cannot meet yield expectations, it will materially
impact our projections and therefore our price target. We
believe certain risks are inherent in operating key facilities in
China from a geopolitical perspective as well natural disasters.
While we have no reason to believe issues will arise, we caution
any government interference or actions could disrupt a majority
of the business, with over 80% of products sold into Asia, and
substantial manufacturing capacity, including the new JV facility
on the continent. Trade tensions between the US and China are
ongoing, with no resolution to date. If the tensions escalate
further or if AOSL customers are impacted by the government
ban and/or tariffs, it could adversely impact our outlook and the
company's ability to sufficiently meet our projections. COVID-19
continues to impact visibility and financial performance. The
company has navigated the crisis well thus far, although a
prolonged or re-emergence of regional disruptions would likely
negatively impact the company's operations and outlook.
Valuation Methodology
Our $60 price target equates to a 12x P/E multiple on our FY23
(June 23 YE) EPS estimate of $5.00 and 10x our $6.00 FY24 EPS
estimate, and compares to the peer group average of ~15.5x
(FY23). We view our price target as conservative, reflecting a
30% discount to the peer group average. When factoring the
equity value in the JV, which represents ~$400M or $14 per
share, our $60 share price reflects a 9.2x EPS multiple.
Price Charts
Benchmark’s disclosure price charts are updated within the first
fifteen days of each new calendar quarter per FINRA regulations.
Price charts for companies initiated upon in the current quarter,
and rating and target price changes occurring in the current
quarter, will not be displayed until the following quarter.
Additional information on recommended securities is available
on request.
Page 6
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor
Ltd. (AOSL)
August 11, 2022
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 Alpha and Omega Semiconductor
Ltd. (AOSL)
August 11, 2022

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