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INSTRUCTIONS
 Do not copy the assignment question and instructions to your answer.
 Prepare your assignment answer following the layout of the ASSESSMENT
CRITERIA shown in the RUBRICS provided for the course. Where RUBRICS are
not provided, follow the instructions/guidelines specified by the Open University
Malaysia (OUM) for the assignment concerned.
 Your assignment should be written according to the number of words outlined
in the assignment instruction EXCLUDING references.
 Type your answer using 12 point Times New Roman font and 1.5 line spacing.
 Show the number of words at the end of your assignment.
 Tables and figures where provided, should be appropriately titled.
 List your references separately in the APPENDIX page.

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Part I (40%)

PURPOSE
For the year 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic, leaders such as CEOs had to make
smart decisions quickly. Their leadership qualities were struggling in a crisis. They had
to respond to the coronavirus outbreak and manage future challenges lying ahead to
recover.

The purpose of this assignment is to enhance learner’s ability to discuss how decision-
making in certain, uncertain and risky conditions make an impact on an organisation
and provide recommendations for future improvements in the selected organisation.

REQUIREMENT
Select any ONE organisation that you are familiar with. Compare decision-making in
certain conditions and decision-making in uncertain conditions that occur in the
chosen organisation. Analyse whether decision-making in risky conditions takes place
in that organisation. Discuss three types of group decision-making methods by
providing relevant examples from the chosen organisation. Suggest methods to
increase the effectiveness of decision-making in that organisation.

2
INTRODUCTION

Shell is a global leader in energy, power, and gas technology. Shell is also working to meet
the increasing demand of cleaner energy while addressing the impact on the environment.
Royal Dutch Shell has been a fuelling partner in Malaysia for over 125 years. Within those
years, Shell has achieved and has grown significantly. Shell also played a role in growing
Malaysia’s energy sector and has played a significant role in the progress and success of
Shell. They are also the first to discover onshore oil and took it offshore. There are several
products and services that are provided by Shell, such as, shell fleet card, telematics –
vehicle tracking system, co2 emission initiative, retail, and engine oil and lubricants. Shell is
in the industry of energy and petrochemical. With over 6,000 staff in Malaysia, Malaysia is
the second largest Shell Business Service Centre.

Today, Shell maintains a strong presence in the country through their innovation,
investments, and impact to the local communities. Amidst the Covid19 pandemic, Shell
Malaysia had to act fast to the situation and transform the business as the economy was not
doing well at that time. There were handful of situation to be addressed and decisions to be
carefully made because the move involved the whole Shell Malaysia group, in which may not
be favorable to all the employees. Most days stakeholders has to make decisions in the
organization. It is crucial that the decision maker understands the conditions surrounding the
decision because decisions that are made will have an effect on the future. Therefore, it is
best that when a decision process is being made, having data to visualise the condition
would facilitate the decision making.

While Shell Malaysia is a big group, the company had their fair share of certain, uncertain,
and risky conditions in which would be discussed in this assignment. Shell Malaysia took a
measurable decision to perform a re-shape during covid-19. Shell had to implement changes
to ensure the company reshape had to happen to motivate the employee to strive through
energy transition, and to restructure the company. Being able to make a good decision for a
company, one has to be greatly influenced by experience and efficiency, and the accurate
and sufficient information to come up with a decision. Although there are times where
information is insufficient, this is where the judgement of the decision maker comes to place.
For example, Shells’ stakeholder sets a stretched annual target to obtain the losses during
the pandemic, the company would be able to forecast whether Shell is able to meet the
annual target to be profitable or otherwise with sufficient analysed data or report. Without
sufficient data, we can only rely on half-cooked data and assumptions.

There are three types of decision-making method which we utilise in our day to day
operation, First is decision making in certain conditions, this is where sufficient information is
provided or gathered to facilitate the decision making. It is a condition where the decision
maker is well informed about the possible alternatives and their outcome. Mostly, there is
only one outcome to each decision made. Second is decision making in uncertain conditions
where there is minimal to no data to determine the probability distribution. Most decisions are
made with uncertainty. Probability enters the process by playing the role of a substitute for
certainty – a substitute for complete data. Third is decision making in a risky condition,
whereby there is a possibility to determine the probability distribution with low level of
information.

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  Decision making in certain condition
There are several scenario where certain condition decision makings is used by
Shell. For example, an internal survey was done internal in Shell to get feedback on
the number of employees that are willing to return to office after more than 2 years of
working from home.

 Decision making in uncertain condition

While during this certain decision made by Shell Malaysia, there were also
uncertainty over the past years. An example of decision made in a uncertain
condition is, Shell made the move of restructuring (Reshape) the business in the year
2020. During the pandemic, the energy industry faced one of the biggest hits as
quarantine was imposed for months. It was a choice between drowning in the
pandemic situation or restructuring the business. The company suffered losses and
was put in a position where reshaping the business seems like the best option
although there was no certainty to this and that over 900 employees would lose their
jobs. Shell is fully aware that it is a difficult but certain decision to make toward the
impacted staff. However, it was a decision that had to be done to remain competitive
in the market, better the company’s future and thrive through the pandemic. The
decision of Shell Malaysia to reshape the business has resulted in having a more
diversified workplace and that the employees are able to experience different job
roles and learn from one another. Although there were reduction of employees, Shell
remained positive and motivated to thrive through this reshape. In addition to that,
the purpose of Shell Malaysia’s reshape is to restructure plans to reduce carbon
emissions to net zero, cutting costs, and to build a low-carbon and power business.

 Decision making in risky condition

With Shell being one of the largest oil suppliers, there were also limitations to
knowing the actual market situation during the pandemic lockdown. Therefore, there
were situations where risky decisions were needed to be made. For example, Shell
sets a stretched fuel volume target for the year 2020, with an incremental of more
than 30% compared to previous year. This is an initiative to make up the losses
during the pandemic lockdown. However, with this far stretched target, Shell can only
assume that the company will meet the target with an incremental of 30% as the
country has opened its interstate borders in the year 2021. Although year 2020 data
is available, due to the pandemic situation, we do not have a prior data to compare to
with the same scenario. Without obtaining other information such as, customer’s
change of brand loyalty, limitations on businesses that are allowed to operate,
limitations on employees returning to office, Shell can only assume that the company
will recover its profit loss based on the fuel volume trend prior to the pandemic. The
only information that Shell holds in this situation is the assumption that the fuel
consumption will go back to normal due to the open borders. Whether or not the
situation goes as planned, Shell can only assume and can’t be completely
ascertained as we do not know whether the company will meet the targeted volume
or otherwise.

Select any ONE organisation that you are familiar with. Compare decision-making in
certain conditions and decision-making in uncertain conditions that occur in the

4
chosen organisation. Analyse whether decision-making in risky conditions takes place
in that organisation. Discuss three types of group decision-making methods by
providing relevant examples from the chosen organisation. Suggest methods to
increase the effectiveness of decision-making in that organisation.

5
 ATTACHMENT

REFERENCES

Author’s name (year). Book, Title, Publication

https://www.assignmentpoint.com/business/management/decision-making-

conditions.html

https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/essays-monographs/2009-erm-

symposium/mono-2009-m-as09-1-damghani.pdf