CI AND POLLS: WORKSHEET

TEAM: ____
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Read carefully the document: Material 1, CI and polls, regarding the elections in 2015 in Andalucia.

There are FOUR parts:

1. The poll in the news

2. The poll: sigma-dos | el mundo
3. The results of the elections
4. Were the polls right?

Using the information of the article referred to the political party you have been assigned (above all, the
Technical note), COMPLETE the information on the right column.

RV of analysis Answer: X: RV Number of people intending to vote to a

certain political party.
Population parameter to estimate in Answer: p: Percentage of voters to a certain political party,
election polls intention to vote.
Population random variable, X
1
Formula of the CI to estimate the
parameter (general)
2

Formula and result of the CI to estimate

the parameter (with your specific data)
3

Chart of the CI for the statistic.

Place the:
 Confidence level
4
 Bounds of the CI
 MoE

Length of the CI in the chart

6 Write the probability sampling

distribution of your statistic
 Obtain the LCI´s formula (length of the CI
for your statistic)
7

Obtain the sample size, with your data,

to decrease the MoE to 1.80.
8

Obtain the margin of error for your data.

If you were given a higher Margin of

Error, what would be the implications in
your CI?
10

 What are the main properties of

the CI?
 What would happen if you
increase the level of confidence?
 How could you increase your
11
accuracy without decreasing your
level of confidence?

Were the polls right?

Compare the final result of the elections
12 (population parameter) with your CI.

Read the Material 2: different polls, different results.

13. Find the differences between the two polls that can lead to obtain different results.
El País El Mundo