UAP3 Min

Comparative analysis of unidentied aerial phenomena
(UAP).
1
Mikhail Kovalyov
1
This le is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license. You
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November 14, 2022
Abstract. Following Rayleigh's Principle of Similitude, dierent aspects of reported UAP sight-
ings are compared to natural phenomena to show that the vast majority of UAP are of terrestrial
or near-terrestrial origin.
Keywords. Unidentied areal phenomena.
1 1 Preface
2 The recent surge in UAP sightings has attracted a lot of attention from about every agency of
3 the United States government, each setting up its own study headed by its own distinguished
4 committee. However, the recent 2022/10/31 report by one of these agencies clearly indicates that
5 none of them knows what the UAP are and where they come from.
6 Should we even be concerned about UAP? The answer is a resounding yes, if for no other
7 reason than that the all-time high in UAP sightings in 2014 coincided with the all-time high in
8 commercial airplane accidents in 2013/11/29 2015/10/13 when over a thousand people lost their
9 lives in seven air disasters, none of which was satisfactorily explained. Never before or after have
10 there been so many commercial airplane accidents in such a short period of time. The 2014/7/
11 apex in monthly UAP sightings was accompanied by two plane crashes on 2014/7/23-24 and one
12 on 2014/7/17. That alone merits serious studies on the nature of UAP.
13 All recent attempts to study UAP have been hindered by gross disinformation best illustrated
14 by the 2004/11/ UAP sightings from the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group. While making all types
15 of claims on the alien craft ostensibly observed from Nimitz, none of the numerous presentations of
16 the event even mentions that the UAP sightings coincided with an unusual burst of geomagnetic
17 storms including the 2004/11/7 Kp=8 and 2004/11/8,9,10 Kp=9-. Occam's razor suggests that a
1
On the origins of UAP. M. Kovalyov 2
18 possible relationship be sought between the UAP and the geomagnetic storms and other natural
19 events. Arthur Clarke once said, "It is vital to remember that information - in the sense of raw
20 data - is not knowledge, knowledge is not wisdom, and wisdom is not foresight. But information is
21 the rst essential step to all of these." In this paper, we employ Rayleigh's Principle of Similitude,
22 [1], to compare raw UAP data to natural phenomena. The purpose of this report is not as much
23 to explain UAP as to provide fuller information about them and the events surrounding them. We
24 hope this report will clarify at least some misconceptions about UAP; but as F. Nietzsche said,
25 " people don't want to hear the truth because they don't want their illusions destroyed"; so the
26 facts described here may fall on deaf ears.
27 2 Comparison of the geographic distribution of UAP sight-

28 ings to those of bolides and seismicity.
29 There is no reliable data about the worldwide distribution of UAP sightings, but NUFORC has
30 compiled data about UAP in the USA, [2]. Figure 1 shows the frequency of UAP sightings per
31 million residents for each state in the contiguous part of the USA. It reveals that the highest
32 frequency of UAP sightings per million residents is either near seismically active places or near
33 geological features like the Yellowstone Caldera, Jemez Lineament, and the Rio Grande Rift. Figure
34 2 shows unequivocal similarity between the states with the highest distribution of UAP sightings
35 and seismic hazards estimated by USGS.
36 The geographic distribution of bolides shown in Figure 3 also reveals a somewhat unexpected
37 propensity to seismically active regions. In the contiguous part of USA, bolides appear in four
38 clusters centering on the Cascade subduction zone and Cascade volcanoes, the Rio Grande Rift and
39 Jemez Lineament, the New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones, and New England. Figures
40 3, 2, 4 suggest that at least some UAP might be related to seismicity and bolides.
41 Los Alamos and Sandia atomic weapons laboratories, Holloman Air Force base, and Roswell,
42 where numerous UAP sightings have been reported, are all located in rectangle 32.8o N − 36o N,
43 106.6o W −105.2o W, near where the Rio Grande Rift crosses the geologic fault line Jemez Lineamen
44 and New Mexico Volcanoes, as shown in Figure 4. In 1961 1992, 422 nuclear tests were carried
45 out in southern Nevada, [3], which may have contributed to some UAP.
Figure 1: The left pane shows 48 contiguous states with the six states of New England consid-
ered as a single entity. The 9 states and New England with ⩾ 500 UAP sightings per million
residents are shown in color, along with their population according to Wikipedia, UAP sightings
in each state according to [2] on 2022/11/8, and ranking. The right pane shows all magnitude
⩾ 6.0 earthquakes and the only VEI ⩾ 5 eruption in 1900 2021, marked by a purple triangle,
in 30o N − 50o N, 50o W − 130o W, [3]; the seismic activity near the East Coast can be comple-
mented with the 1884 eruption of an unnamed volcano at 49.o N, 34.5o W, and numerous pre-1901
earthquakes, [4]. The left inset shows the Rio Grande Rift, Jemez Lineament, and New Mex-
ico Volcanoes; the right inset shows craters near New England. The regions with ⩾ 500 UAP
sightings per million residents can be grouped into 1) Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, all three
around the Yellowstone Caldera 44.4o N, 110.7o W, the earthquakes in the region are marked by
red circles; 2) Washington and Oregon, near the Cascade subduction zone and Cascade volcanoes,
the earthquakes in the region are marked by dark-pink circles; 3) New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado,
centered around geological fault line Jemez Lineament, the Rio Grande Rift, and New Mexico Vol-
canoes, [5], no earthquakes in the region; 4) Nevada with intraplate earthquakes. 5) New England,
near the region of elevated seismic activity and numerous craters shown in the right inset, the
earthquakes in the region are marked by green circles. The 9 states with ⩾ 500 UAP sightings
per million residents and New England are either near regions of high seismicity or near regions
where seismic activity used to be high. Lack of seismic activity and features like subduction zones,
rifts, calderas, or craters in Utah may explain why the density of UAP sightings in the state is
lower than that in the surrounding states. It may appear somewhat surprising that California did
not make the top 10; but that must be because either the residents do not look up or near-tectonic-
lines seismic activity does not produce UAP in suciently large quantities. Overall, it appears
that UAP congregate near centers of intraplate seismic activity either present or past. These maps
were constructed based on data available on 2022/11/8; a similar map based on data available on a
dierent date or from a dierent source may look slightly dierent, yet, the overall picture should
be the same, e.g. using [6] for population numbers changes the densities but leaves the ranking
the same.
Figure 2: On the left is a map from Figure 1, in addition, the states with the frequency of UAP
sightings per million residents between 401 and 499, as of 2022/11/8, are shown in yellow. On the
right is the earthquake hazards map created by USGS in 2014, [7]. The states of Missouri and
Arkansas are located close to the New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones known for the
1811 1812 seismic activity, accompanied by unusual celestial events. South Carolina is currently
considered to be the most seismically active part of the East Coast, the 1886/8/31 earthquake was
the strongest to hit the region with a respectable magnitude of 7.3, it was classied as intraplate.
Figure 3: Distribution of bolides in 1988/4/15 2022/7/28 according to [8] on 2022/7/28 is shown

on the left. The highest concentration of powerful bolides is along the East African Rift and in
the high seismicity area of South East Asia and Pacic. The highest concentration of powerful
bolides is along the East African Rift and in the high seismicity area of South East Asia and
Pacic. On the right are the bolides in the contiguous USA, they appear in four clusters echoing
Figure 1, while the two largest bolides appear near New England and near Yellowstone Caldera,
marked by the letter Y. The New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones, marked by letters
NM, produced powerful earthquakes 1) 1811/12/16 magnitude 7.5 35.6o N, 90.4o W, right after the
1811/12/15 New Moon, 2) 1812/1/23 magnitude 7.3 36.3o N, 89.6o W, 3) 1812/2/27 magnitude
7.5 36.3o N, 89.6o W, the same day as the 1812/2/27 Full Moon and eclipse, [3]; the four bolides
in the New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones appeared very close to the epicenters of the
earthquakes at 32o N, 92.9o W, 35.3o N, 93.9o W, 33.8o N, 90.2o W, 41.4o N, 87.7o W.
Figure 4: Los Alamos National Laboratory at 35.9o N, 106.3o W,

Sandia National Laboratory at 35.1o N, 106.5o W, Holloman Air
Force base at 32.9o N, 106.2o W, and Roswell at 33.95o N, 105.3o W,
where numerous UAP sightings have been reported, are all located
near the crossing of the Rio Grande Rift with geologic fault line
Jemez Lineament and New Mexico Volcanoes.
46 3 Comparison of the temporal frequency of UAP sightings

47 to the magnetic North Pole's speed, frequency of bolides,
48 and powerful seismic activity.
49 The NUFORC data may be divided into four parts: spotty, sparse, and unreliable pre-1960;
50 somewhat reliable but susceptible to small changes 1960 1994; robust 1995 2019/5/; prone to
51 corruption by Starlink satellites post-2019/5/, [9]. The graphs of monthly sightings and 12-month
52 running sum for 1990 2020 are detailed in Figure 5. Figure 6 shows the yearly numbers of UAP
53 sightings in Canada; the graph is almost the same as the 12-month running sum in Figure 5, the
54 main dierence is that the 2012 maximum is larger than the 2015 one suggesting that a larger
55 portion of UAP was sighted in 2012 at higher latitudes than in 2014 2015.
Figure 5: The bottom graph shows monthly global UAP sightings in 1990 2020, reported in
n+5
[2]. The top graph shows the 12-month running sum m(j), where m(j) is the number
P
j=n−6
of reported UAP sightings in month j. The graphs are constructed from the data available in
2021/12/; as the database is constantly updated, the graphs produced at a later date may be
slightly dierent. The local maxima, marked by purple vertical lines, recur on average every 60
months. Starlink started massive launches of satellites on 2019/5/24 so the 2020 maxima might
be due to reports of satellites as UAP, [9]. For the sake of brevity, the word "reported" will often
be omitted, but it should be kept in mind that some sightings may not have been reported, while
others may have been reported more than once.
Figure 6: Annual UAP sightings in Canada in 1989 2017, [10]. The graph is very similar to the
12-month running sum in Figure 5; the main dierence is that the all-time high is achieved in 2012
with the second all-time high in 2015, from which we may infer that the share of UAP in high
latitudes in 2012 was higher than in 2014 2015.
56 Figure 7 reveals a striking similarity between the graph of the 12-month running sum of UAP
57 sightings in 1960 2011 and the 1960 2010 portion of the graph of the magnetic North Pole's
58 modeled speed; the 2011 2018 part of the 12-month running sum of UAP sightings is similar to
59 the 2010 2014 part of the magnetic North Pole's speed, but disproportionately larger. Given
60 a rather rough estimate of the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed and a rather non-scientic
61 collection of data for the graph of UAP sightings, their similarity is rather striking. Most UAP
Figure 7: The top graph shows the modeled speed

of the magnetic North Pole based on the magnetic
North Pole's location on January 1 of the year, [11];
the insets zoom in on 2001/7/ 2008/7/ and 1991/7/
1995/7/, they are constructed using the magnetic
North Pole's location on January 1 and July 2 of the
year as described below. The bottom graph shows the
12-month running sum of the UAP sightings reported
in [2], the inset zooms in on 1961 1985. The post-
1960 part of the graph of the magnetic North Pole's
modeled speed and the graph of the 12-month running
sum of UAP sightings exhibit very similar overall be-
havior; similar features are emphasized with similarly-
colored labels. The magnetic North Pole's modeled
speed shows a barely perceptible 2005 trough between
barely perceptible 2003 and 2009 crests and at 1992
1995 portions, while the 12-month running sum of UAP
sightings shows a well-dened 2006/6/ trough between
well-dened 2004/1/ and 2009/1/ crests and 1996/6/-
1996/9/ trough. However, the insets depicting the mag-
netic North Pole's modeled speed with slightly better
resolution reveal 2005/7/ and 1994/7/ troughs in the
magnetic North Pole's modeled speed corresponding to
the 2006/6/ and 1996/6/-1996/9/ troughs in the 12-
month running sum of UAP sightings.
Coordinates km speed = km Coordinates km speed = km

of the moved in moved in of the moved in moved in
Date magnetic preceding preceding Date magnetic preceding preceding
North Pole 6 months 12 months North Pole 6 months 12 months
2000/7/2 81.2N 110.322W 1991/1/1 78.286N 103.99W
2001/1/1 81.427N 111.008W 28 1991/7/2 78.4N 104.158W 13
2001/7/2 81.65N 111.673W 27 55 1992/1/1 78.476N 104.301W 9 22
2002/1/1 81.879N 112.532W 29 56 1992/7/2 78.6N 104.539W 15 24
2002/7/2 82.1N 113.349W 28 57 1993/1/1 78.665N 104.62W 7 22
2003/1/1 82.325N 114.231W 28 56 1993/7/2 78.8N 104.849W 16 23
2003/7/2 82.55N, 115.35W 30 58 1994/1/1 78.854N 104.95W 6 22
2004/1/1 82.762N 116.119W 26 56 1994/7/2 78.949N 105.1W 11 17
2004/7/2 83.0N 117.249W 31 57 1995/1/1 79.043N 105.29W 11 22
2005/1/1 83.186N 118.218W 24 55 1995/7/2 79.2N 105.637W 19 30
2005/7/2 83.4N 119.375W 28 52 1996/1/1 79.417N 106.005W 25 44
2006/1/1 83.602N 120.592W 27 55
2006/7/2 83.8N 121.865W 27 54
2007/1/1 83.995N 123.216W 27 54
2007/7/2 84.2N 124.755W 29 56
2008/1/1 84.363N 126.100W 23 52
2008/7/2 84.5N 127.448W 21 44
The tables show the values of the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed for the insets in Figure 7.
The magnetic North Pole's coordinates on January 1 of the year are from [11]. The magnetic North
Pole's coordinates on July 2 of the year are estimated using [12]. To illustrate how estimates are
obtained consider 2002/7/2. In [12], select Horizontal Intensity, start and nish dates 2001/7/2,
latitude range 80o N − 85o N, longitude range 110o W − 128o W, latitude and longitude steps
=0.1, result format CSV; the obtained le shows minimal values of horizontal intensity 3.4 at
82.1o N, 113.3o W and 3.7 at 82.1o N, 113.4o W. Approximating the horizontal component of the
Earth's magnetic eld along latitude 81.1o N, longitude between 113.3o W and 113.4o W by
√ √ 2 x−133.3 √ 2
3.4 + 3.7 0.1 − √ 3.4
√
3.4+ 3.7
, where x denotes longitude; we determine its zero to be
√
close to 82.1o N, 113.3 + √0.1 3.4
√
3.4+ 3.7
= 113.349o W. On several occasions, a bit more complicated
version of this approach was utilized.
Figure 8: The top curve is the 12-month

! running sum of UAP sightings from Figure 5. The
n+2 k+5
bottom curve is 51 b(j) , where b(j) is the number of bolides in the j− th month
P P
k=n−2 j=k−6
as reported in [8] on 2022/7/28. The ve-year averaging is done to remove jiggles o the graph.
The two curves are not identical but exhibit considerable similarity, lines indicate points on the
curves corresponding to each other. The pre-2011 portion of the bolide curve shadows the pre-2010
portion of the UAP curve, with features of the former lagging the corresponding features of the
latter by 0 - 21 months.
62 events in Figure 7 lagged their counterparts in the magnetic North Pole's speed, but the 1973
63 1980 increase in UAP sightings started three years ahead of the 1976 1980 hump in the magnetic
64 North Pole's speed. We may speculate that the early increase in UAP sightings was due to the
65 unusual solar and geomagnetic activity in 1972, believed to be responsible for exploding sea mines;
66 the 1972/8/4 X-class solar are launched an ultra-fast coronal mass ejection that reached Earth
67 in the record time of 14.6 hours, [13].
68 In Figure 8, the temporal frequency of UAP sightings is compared to the frequency of meteor
69 air bursts, extending the previous declassied UK Ministry of Defence Report [14]. The two graphs
70 look quite similar up to 2010 2011, further conrming a likely link between some UAP and bolides
71 suggested in Figure 3. The similarity between the two graphs disappears after about 2010 2011.
72 Since more-or-less reliable UAP data goes back only up to 1960, the speed of the magnetic
73 North Pole may be used as a proxy for UAP. Figure 9 illustrates the similarity of the speed of
74 the magnetic North Pole in 1900 1995 to the distribution of the most powerful seismic events in
75 1902 2011. The drastic increase in the speed of the magnetic North Pole in the post-1996 years
76 is not accompanied by a similar increase in seismic activity in the post-2010 years as the similarity
77 of the pre-1996 portion of the magnetic North Pole's speed to the pre-2008 seismic activity would
78 suggest.
Figure 9: On the left, the speed of the magnetic North Pole is compared to the magnitude ⩾ 8.5
earthquakes, shown in purple, and VEI ⩾ 5 eruptions, shown in orange, in 1900 2021, [3, 15].
VEI=6 eruptions and magnitude ⩾ 9.0 earthquakes are represented by lines of the same height as
the frequencies of VEI=6 eruptions and magnitude ⩾ 9.0 earthquakes are about the same; there
were three VEI=6 eruptions and four magnitude ⩾ 9.0 earthquakes in 1900 2021. On the right,
the same graphs are shown with the time scales synchronized, gray lines connect powerful seismic
events with the corresponding increases in the speed of the magnetic North Pole. The two graphs
move in tandem in ≈ 1900 − 1996, with seismic activity; each surge in the speed of the magnetic
North Pole corresponds to a cluster of 1 - 3 seismic events ≈ 15 years later. The post-1996 high
values of the magnetic North Pole's speed have no corresponding seismic events as if portending
upcoming seismic events of immense proportions.
79 strengthen the suggestion that at least some UAP, the Earth's

Figures 7, 8, 9,
80 magnetic eld, bolides, and seismicity are somehow linked.

81 Let us now look at specic periods.
82 4 The mid-1930s to early-1950s.

83 Since the pre-1960 UAP data is spotty, sparse, and unreliable, the 1900 1960 portion of the graph
84 of the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed may be used as a proxy for UAP sightings for the
85 period. The increase in the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed around 1940 1955 suggests an
86 increase in UAP sightings; and indeed, there was a considerable increase in UAP sightings. It was
87 unsuccessfully investigated by the Robertson Panel, Projects Sign, Grudge, Blue Book, Cordon
88 Committee.
89 The increase in UAP sightings near the 1950 maximum in the magnetic North Pole's modeled
90 speed was accompanied by 1) 28 unusually powerful auroras on 1936/6/10, 1936/6/19, 1937/2/28,
91 1937/4/28, 1937/8/3, 1938/1/25 Fatima geomagnetic storm, 1940/3/25, 1940/4/3, 1941/1/18,

Figure 10: Annual change of the total inten-

sity of the Earth's magnetic eld in 1900-2005,
IGRF model, [16]. The Earth's magnetic eld
was considerably agitated around 1938 1952;
a simple visual inspection suggests that the
peak of the agitation was around 1941 1943.
Figure 11: Total intensity of the Earth's magnetic eld on 2020/1/1, [16]. The absolute minimum
22 231.9 nT at 26.1o S, 59.2o W is marked by a blue asterisk. The three global maxima are marked
by red asterisks: 1) North-Eastern maximum 61 746.1 nT at 61.4o N, 102.4o E, merely ≈ 59 km
from the epicenter of the Tunguska explosion at 60.917o N, 101.95o E; 2) North-Western maximum
58 632.3 nT at 62.4o N, 99.0o W, merely 56 km away from Angikuni Lake at 62.2o N, 99.983o W. 3)
Southern maximum 66 991.6 nT at 60.0o S, 135.4o E. Although the minimum and three maxima
have been slowly moving around, the overall structure of the magnetic eld has not signicantly
changed. NOAA's model shows that before 1948/11/27, the North-Western maximum provided a
larger relative contribution that the North-Eastern maximum; but after 1948/11/27, the North-
Eastern maximum provided a larger relative contribution that the North-Western maximum, [16].
In reality, the date may have been somewhat dierent.
Figure 12: Sightings of UAP per day in

1952/6/1 1952/9/31, [17]. The sight-
ings increased near the New/Ful Moon
accompanied by perigee or lunar node,
[19]. The three most powerful earth-
quakes of 1952/6/1 1952/9/31 were
1952/6/22 M=6.8, 1952/7/21 M=7.5,
and 1952/8/17 M=7.4, [3]; all three
struck close to New Moon when the inci-
dence of UAP sightings increased. The
graph suggests a relationship between
UAP, tidal forces and seismic activity.
92 1941/7/6, 1941/9/18, 1942/6/27, 1943/9/4, 1944/10/15, 1944/12/17, 1946/2/3, 1946/3/24,
93 1946/4/8, 1946/7/26, 1947/3/8, 1947/7/19, 1947/8/27, 1948/3/16, 1949/1/27, 1950/2/21,
94 1950/8/20, 1951/7/2, 1951/9/23, indicative of considerable solar emissions, [18]; 2) an unusual,
95 never before or after seen, agitation of the Earth's magnetic eld demonstrated in Figure 10; 3) the
96 switch of the dominant global maximum of the total intensity of the Earth's magnetic eld in 1948,
97 shown in Figure 11; 4) the 1938 1946 increase in earthquake activity with 13 magnitude ⩾ 8.0
98 earthquakes or 1.44 earthquakes per year, for comparison, the whole 1900 1999 century saw 70
99 such earthquakes or 0.7 earthquakes per year, [3]; 5) according to [20], the magnetic South Pole's
100 modeled speed attained its all-time maximum in 1952. It is hard to attribute the simultaneity of
101 all these events to a mere coincidence; the most reasonable explanation would be that the increased
102 solar activity was the cause of all of them.
103 Earth's magnetic eld is not the only entity aecting UAP sightings, the other one seems to
104 be the Moon and the tidal force it generates. In general, a lunar perigee may be separated from
105 the nearest New /Full Moon by up to 7 days; however, about once every 206 - 207 days, a perigee
106 comes within 11 hours of a New or Full Moon, bringing along a considerable increase in the tidal
107 force, [19]. We shall refer to a pair of New/Full Moon and a perigee within 11 hours of each other
108 as New/Full Moon-perigee. The increase in the tidal force is even further amplied, if a New/Full
109 Moon-perigee is close to an eclipse or a lunar node. Figure 12 provides a record of UAP sightings
110 in 1952/6/1 1952/9/15, it clearly shows increases in UAP sightings near New/Full Moon and
111 powerful earthquakes.
112 Here are some of the more well-known UAP sightings of the period.
113 UAP nicknamed foo ghters were sighted from 1941/4/ till 1951 in Europe.
114 The 1947/6/24 UAP sighting by Kenneth Arnold and 1947/6/21 UAP sighting by Harold
115 Dahl occurred within a month of the 1947/7/17 New Moon-perigee, near Mount Rainier at
116 46.85o N, 121.76o W and close to the Cascadia subduction zone that produced the 1700/1/27
117 magnitude 9 earthquake at 45.o N, 125.o W and the St Helen's 1980 VEI=5 eruption at
118 46.19o N, 122.19o W, all shown in Figure 1. Figure 3 shows bolides observed in that area.
119 The 1947/7/ Roswell UAP sightings at 33.95o N, 105.3o W, occurred contemporaneously with
120 the 1947/7/17 New Moon-perigee and 1947/7/19 powerful geomagnetic storm, near Jemez
121 Lineament, the Rio Grande Rift, and New Mexico Volcanoes, shown in Figure 4. Figure 3
122 shows bolides observed in that area.
123 The 1950/3/16-18, Farmington, New Mexico sightings occurred near Jemez Lineament, the
124 Rio Grande Rift, and New Mexico Volcanoes, shown in Figure 4; they coincided with the
125 1950/3/18 New Moon, 1950/3/19 eclipse. Figure 3 shows bolides observed in that area.
126 The sightings near Area 51 at 37.23o N, 115.8o W in Nevada were reported around the time
127 of the 1954/12/16 M=7.1 earthquake at 39.35o N, 117.98o W and the 1959/8/18 M=7.2
128 earthquake at 44.63o N 110.89o W, two most powerful intraplate earthquakes in the regions
129 since 1900, shown in Figure 13, [3].
Figure 13: All 13 magnitude ⩾ 7.1 earthquakes in the 48 con-

tiguous states, and 3 earthquakes close to the 48 contiguous
states, marked yellow, in 1900/1/1 2022/1/1. The sightings
near Area 51 at 37.23o N, 115.8o W in the 1950s were close to
the 1952/7/21 and 1954/12/16 earthquakes. The 2019/8/10
UAP sighting from Las Vegas 36.175o N, 115.136o W were
close to the 2019/7/6 earthquake, marked purple. The
1906/4/18 earthquake was the strongest to hit the USA in
1900 2022.
130 The 1951/2/21 Bethune Encounter occurred simultaneously with the 1951/2/21 Full Moon
131 and the 1951/2/21-23 geomagnetic storm, between two powerful auroras on 1950/8/20,
132 1951/7/2, indicative of powerful geomagnetic storms; and between the 1950/8/15 magnitude
133 8.6 and 1952/11/4 magnitude 9.0 earthquakes, [3], indicative of a surge in seismic activity.
134 Although the exact location of the sighting could not be determined, it was close to New
135 England.
136 The 1951/8/ 1951/9/ Lubbok UAP occurred contemporaneously with the 1951/9/23 geo-
137 magnetic storm; near Jemez Lineament, the Rio Grande Rift, and New Mexico Volcanoes,
138 shown in Figure 4. Figure 3 shows bolides observed in that area.
139 5 The 1970s.

140 Figure 7 shows a short-lived maximum in the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed in 1976 1980,
141 the actual maximum was attained in 1977, albeit it was only slightly larger than the values in 1976
142 1980. UAP sightings also increased around 1975 1978, here are the most well-known ones.
143 On 1974/1/23, a bright light and a magnitude 3.5 earthquake occurred simultaneously in
144 Great Britain, near 52.9o N, 3.4o W, mimicking on a small scale the Tunguska explosion when
145 bright lights and earthquakes occurred at the same time. It coincided with the 1974/1/23 New
146 Moon, and was 3 days after the 1974/1/20 lunar node and 15 days after the 1974/1/8 Full
147 Moon-perigee. The 1988/12/31 Pan Am 103 explosion occurred nearby at 55.1o N, 3.3o W.
148 The 1976/7/27-28 UAP in Tangshan, China at 39.6o N, 118.176o E, [21], was accompanied
149 by sounds and coincided with the 1976/7/27 New Moon and the 1976/7/27 magnitude 7.6
150 earthquake at 39.605o N 117.889o E that killed over 240,000 people.
151 The 1976/9/19 UAP sighting in Iran, occurred merely 4 days the 1976/10/23 New Moon-
152 perigee in a seismically active part of Asia.
153 UAP sightings, known as Operacao Prata, were reported in 1977 in the Brazilian city of
154 Colares, Para. As Figure 14 shows, Brazil has had only few earthquakes in 1900 2021,
155 much fewer than its neighbors. The strongest earthquake of 1800 2021 struck near Colares
156 on 1885/8/4; there was a magnitude 4.8 earthquake near Colares in 1977.
Figure 14: On the left are all magnitude ⩾

4.8 earthquakes in 1967 1987 in rectangle
40o S −15o N, 80o W −15o W. In blue is the earth-
quake near Colares, Para, Brazil; in orange is the
strongest earthquake of 1900 2021, the pur-
ple asterisk denotes the strongest earthquake of
1800 2021.
157 The 1977/9/20 Petrozavodzk UAP sighting in Europe was contemporaneous with the second
158 strongest intraplate earthquake in Europe in 1900 2021 on 1977/3/4 at 45.772o N, 26.761o E,
159 its magnitude was 7.5. The strongest earthquake had a magnitude 7.7 and struck on
160 1940/11/10 at 45.72o N, 26.426o E, that is at almost the same place. The third largest
161 bolide recorded in Europe, also appeared in the same place, as Figure 15 shows, the second
162 largest, shown in purple, was not too far away; that raises the question of whether there is
163 something special about the place. The UAP was preceded by the 1977/9/13 eruption of
164 Kilauea and a series of nuclear tests in the USSR shown in Figure 16, the last three of which
165 were in 1977/9/1-10; that raises a possibility that the fallouts from the eruption and tests
166 may have contributed to the UAP.

Figure 15: On the left are

all magnitude ⩾ 7.5 earth-
quakes in Europe in 1900
2021. On the right is the
European portion of Figure
3.
Figure 16: Nuclear tests in 1975/1/1 1977/9/20, [3].

The nuclear tests in Europe and Asia enveloped the re-
gions of the Petrozavodsk sightings.
167 The 1977/12/17 Council Blus, Iowa, sighting occurred 7 days after the 1977/12/10 New
168 Moon-perigee.
169 The 1978/10/26 UAP sighting in Clarenville, Canada at 48.16o N, 53.97o W.
170 A spate of UAP sightings in New Zealand in 1978/12/ culminating around the 1978/12/29-30
171 New Moon and perigee. The sightings were accompanied by the 1978/7/11 X15.0 solar are,
172 1979/12/ solar maximum, unusual geomagnetic storm on 1978/11/24-25; and followed by
173 the 1980/5/18 VEI=5 eruption of St Helen and the 1982/4/4 1982/5/27 VEI=5 eruption
174 of Chichon. The nuclear tests near French Polynesia that started in 1976, some of which are
175 shown in Figure 16, may have contributed to the UAP.
176 The 1978/10/21 F. Valentich report of a UFO with a shiny metal surface and a green light
177 "orbiting" above his plane. Valentich reported engine problems; asked to identify the UAP,
178 Valentich radioed: "It's not an aircraft." His transmission was then interrupted by unidenti-
179 ed noise described as "metallic, scraping sounds" before all contact was lost.
180 The 1970s also saw the rst reports of UAP at Skinwalker Ranch at 40.26o N, 109.89o W,
181 merely 466 km from Yellowstone Caldera at 44.4o N, 110.7o W, and within 300 km of intraplate
182 1934/3/12 magnitude 6.6 41.66o N, 112.795o W and 1975/3/28 magnitude 6.1 42.06o N, 112.55o W
183 earthquakes, next to a region of intraplate seismic activity shown in Figure 17.
Figure 17: Magnitude ⩾ 6.0 earthquakes in 1900

2021 in 30o N − 50o N, 45o W − 123o W. Skin-
walker Ranch is marked by S, Yellowstone Caldera is
marked by Y, the 1934/3/12 magnitude 6.6 quake at
41.658o N, 112.795o W and 1975/3/28 magnitude
6.1 quake at 42.061o N, 112.548o W are marked by
dark red circles. The dark and light red circles indi-
cate a region of intraplate seismic activity, right next
to Skinwalker Ranch.
184 6 The 1990s and 2000s.

185 The 1990s started with the 1991/6/15 VEI=6 eruption of Pinatubo and the 1991/8/8 VEI = 5
186 eruption of Hudson; a burst of nine magnitude ⩾ 7.9 earthquakes on 1994/6/9, 1994/10/4,
187 1995/7/30, 1995/10/9, 1995/12/3, 1996/1/1, 1996/2/17, 1996/6/10, 1996/6/17, [3], never before
188 or after so many ⩾ 7.9 earthquakes struck within 24 months; a drastic increase in the magnetic
189 North Pole's modeled speed followed by no less drastic increase in the 12-month running sum of
190 UAP sightings. All of these were preceded by the 1989/3/10 1991/1/25 fusillade of six X9.3 -
191 X15.0 solar ares followed by the 1991/6/1-15 salvo of six X10.0 - X12.0 solar ares, shown in
192 Table 1, As Table 1 and [22] show, geomagnetic activity further continued with thirty Kp ⩾ 8+
193 geomagnetic storms in 1998 2005 or eighty-eight Dst ⩽ −100nT s geomagnetic storms in 1996
194 2006. But can solar ares, as powerful as they might be, accelerate the magnetic North Pole and
195 cause earthquakes?
196 To answer this question, consider Figure 18 depicting the modeled movement of the magnetic
197 North Pole in 1590 2009 with the year and value of each solar maximum. The path has nine
198 distinct features: 1-5) U-turns around 1632, 1730, 1859 U-turn and two sharp turns around 1892
199 and 1894, all contemporaneous with drastic increases in solar and geomagnetic activity; 6) the 1990
200 2000 jump in the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed with the modeled speed staying high till
201 2007, contemporaneous with the aforementioned solar and geomagnetic activity; 7-9) Maunder,
202 Dalton, and 1903 1917 Minima where the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed was very low,
203 contemporaneous with low solar activity. The 1955 1975 minimum shows three turns in 1950,
204 1960, and 1965; but the 1948, 1963, and 1972 measured locations of the magnetic North Pole
205 suggest that the path in 1948 1975 was actually more-or-less straight and the turns are merely
206 artifacts of modeling, the actual turns likely occurred around 1948 and 1976. It is worthy of notice
Complete data is only available since 1996 Table 1: Most powerful solar ares and
All ⩾ X4.1 solar ares Top 50 geomagnetic storms of geomagnetic storms. Not all powerful so-
in 1996 2021, [24] 1996 2021, all with Kp ⩾ 8-, [25]
lar ares are associated with powerful ge-
2021/11/4 Kp=8- Ap=72
2017/9/10 X8.2 omagnetic storms, and not all powerful
2017/9/6 X9.3 2017/9/8 Kp=8+ Ap=1065 geomagnetic storms are associated with
2015/9/11 Kp=8- Ap=101 powerful solar ares. Plenty is known
2015/6/23 Kp=8- Ap=72 about the post-1996 solar ares and ge-
2015/6/22 Kp=8+ Ap=575
2015/3/17 Kp=8- Ap=108 omagnetic storms, considerably less is
2014/2/25 X4.9 known about the 1976 1995 ones, while
2013/10/22 Kp=8- Ap=58 the data about the pre-1976 solar ares
2012/3/7 X5.4 2012/3/9 Kp=8 Ap=87 and geomagnetic storms is incomplete
2011/8/9 X6.9
2010/10/5 Kp=8- Ap=116 and rather spotty. A list of near-Earth
2010/8/12 Kp=8- Ap=123 CME responsible for 1996 2021 geomag-
2006/12/6 X6.5 2006/12/15 Kp=8+ Ap=94 netic storms may be found at [23].
2006/12/5 X9.0
2005/9/9 X6.2
2005/9/8 X5.4
2005/9/7 X17.0 There is less data available for
2005/8/24 Kp=9- Ap=102 the pre-1995, whatever is available
2005/5/30 Kp=8- Ap=90 is shown below
2005/5/15 Kp=8+ Ap=87 All ⩾ X9.0 Most powerful ge-
2005/5/8 Kp=8+ Ap=91 solar ares in omagnetic storms
2005/1/20 X7.1 2005/1/21 Kp=8 Ap=66 1976 1995, [24] in 1900 - 1995, [25]
2005/1/18 Kp=8- Ap=84 1995/4/7
2004/11/10 Kp=9- Ap=161 1994/4/17
2004/11/9 Kp=9- Ap=119 1992/11/2 X9.0
2004/11/8 Kp=9- Ap=140 1991/11/8
2004/11/7 Kp=8 Ap=50 1991/6/15 X12.0
2004/7/27 Kp=9- Ap=186 1991/6/11 X12.0
2004/7/25 Kp=8 Ap=154 1991/6/9 X10.0
2003/11/4 (est) X28 2003/11/20 Kp=9- Ap=150 1991/6/6 X12.0
2003/11/2 X8.3 2003/10/31 Kp=8+ Ap=116 1991/6/4 X12.0
2003/10/29 X10.0 2003/10/30 Kp=9 Ap=191 1991/6/1 X12.0
2003/10/28 X17.2 2003/10/29 Kp=9 Ap=204 1991/1/25 X10.0
2003/10/23 X5.4 1990/5/24 X9.3
2003/5/29 Kp=8+ Ap=109 1989/10/19 X13.0
2002/7/23 X4.8 1989/9/29 X9.8
2002/5/23 Kp=8+ Ap=78 1989/8/16 X20.0 1989/8/16
2001/12/13 X6.2 2001/11/24 Kp=8+ Ap=106 1989/3/10 X15.0 1989/3/13
2001/11/6 Kp=9- Ap=142
2001/10/21 Kp=8- Ap=57 1984/5/20 X10.1
2001/8/25 X5.3 1984/4/24 X13.0
2001/4/15 X14.4
2001/4/6 X5.6 2001/4/11 Kp=8+ Ap=85 1982/12/17 X10.1
2001/4/2 X20.0 1982/12/15 X12.9
2001/3/31 Kp=9- Ap=192 1982/7/9 X9.8
2000/9/18 Kp=8- Ap=70 1982/6/6 X12.0
2000/9/17 Kp=8+ Ap=56
2000/7/14 X5.7 2000/7/15 Kp=9 Ap=164 1978/7/11 X15.0
2000/5/24 Kp=8 Ap=98 1972/8/2-11, [13] 1972/8/
2000/4/7 Kp=9- Ap=74 1959/7/
2000/4/6 Kp=8+ Ap=82 1958/2/11
1999/10/22 Kp=8 Ap=91 1957/9/13,23
1999/9/22 Kp=8 Ap=50 1956/2/24
1998/11/8 Kp=8- Ap=66 1946/2/3 - /3/24
1998/8/27 Kp=8 Ap=144 1941/9/18-19
1998/8/18 X4.9 1998/8/25 Kp=8+ Ap=117 1940/3/25
1998/5/4 Kp=9- Ap=101 1938/1/25
1997/11/6 X9.4 1921/5/13
1994/2/22 Kp=8- Ap=63 1909/9/25
1994/2/21 Kp=8- Ap=95 1903/11/1
Figure 18: Modeled path of the magnetic North Pole in 1590 1987, [26], and 1760 1979
solar maxima with sunspot numbers. The magnetic North Pole's modeled path shows three U-
turns: in 1632, contemporaneous with a drastic increase in solar/geomagnetic activity elaborated
in Figure 19; in 1730, the year of powerful geomagnetic storms, [27, 28]; in 1859, the year of the
Carrington solar are, [29]. The two turns in 1890 1899 are discussed in Figure 19. The 1948
1984 magnetic North Pole's measured locations suggest that the actual path must have been
more like in the bottom inset with two minor turns around 1948 and 1972-1973; the former, right
after the 1972/8/ geomagnetic storms, the latter, concurrently with the 27 geomagnetic storms
of 1936/6/10 1951/9/23 discussed earlier. In 1990 2007, the magnetic North Pole's modeled
speed drastically increased and stayed high until 2007, Table 1 shows increased levels of solar and
geomagnetic activity at the same time. During the Maunder, Dalton, and 1903 1917 minima,
both the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed and the curvature of the path were low. Prior
to 2010, higher sunspot numbers are more or less associated with higher modeled speed and/or
larger curvature of the path and warmer weather; while lower sunspot numbers are more or less
associated with lower modeled speed, low curvature of the path, and colder weather.
Figure 19: On the left, the number of auroras observed each year in 1590 1724 in Central Europe,
[31], shown on the magnetic North Pole's modeled path; the numbers of auroras are shown only
for years with ⩾ 3 auroras. A drastic increase in auroras is seen 1630 suggesting that the path
turned around 1630 rather than 1632 suggested by the NOAA's model. On the right, the number
of auroras in 1885 1899 are shown on the path of the magnetic North Pole, [30]; the numbers
suggest that the path turned around 1893 and 1896 1898, rather around 1892 and 1899, as the
NOAA's model shows. The powerful 1630/3/9 Crete earthquake, 1631/12/16 VEI=5 eruption
of Vesuvius, and the 1897/9/20-21 magnitude 8.7 earthquake in the Philippines further point to
1630-1631 and 1897 as the more likely years of the path's turns.
207 that the 1958 solar maximum did not result in a sharp turn or increased speed of the magnetic
208 North Pole, even though it was the largest solar maximum on record. All of these can hardly be
209 explained by a mere coincidence, so it must be concluded that solar/geomagnetic activity can 1)
210 change the direction of movement of the magnetic North Pole, as it did around 1632, 1730, 1892,
211 1894; 2) can accelerate the movement of the magnetic North Pole, as it did around 1755 1790;
212 3) can slow down the movement of the magnetic North Pole as it did during the Maunder, Dalton,
213 and 1903 1917 minima. Thus, the jump in the speed of the magnetic North Pole in 1900 2000
214 is not only possible, but expected.
215 The magnetic North Pole's modeled speed and the 12-month running sum of UAP sightings
216 in Figure 7 also shadow the geomagnetic storms of Table 1 in 1994 2010: 2 storms in 1994/2/
217 correspond to the 1994/2/ higher values of the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed and UAP
218 1995/7/ crest; absence of storms in 1995 1997 corresponds to the 1994/7/ drop in the magnetic
219 North Pole's modeled speed and UAP 1996/6/ 1996/9/ trough; 1998 2005 storms correspond
220 to the 1996 2003 increase in the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed and UAP 1997 2004/1/
221 increase; the absence of storms in 2005/9/ 2006/12/ corresponds to the 2005 trough in the
222 magnetic North Pole's modeled speed and UAP 2006/6/ trough; the 2006 storm in Table 1, as
223 well as the 2016/1/214 Kp=8-, Ap=47 correspond to the 2007 crest in the magnetic Noth Pole's
224 modeled speed and 2009/1/ UAP crest; the absence of storms in 2007 2008 correspond to the
225 2008 2010 trough in the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed and 2010 2011 UAP trough.
226 Fireballs were observed several hours before the mysterious 1991/4/12 Sasovo explosion at ≈
227 54.4o N, 41.9o E, Sasovo explosion, [32], ten days after the awakening of Pinatubo and two months
228 before its full eruption. The reballs were reported to have been accompanied by underground
229 rumble, ground vibrations; failure of radio communications; within several kilometers from the
230 epicenter many felt a "heat wave" and suocation. Witnesses reported mass cases of opening gates
231 and manholes of cellars and basements. A similar but somewhat smaller explosion at about the
232 same location took place in 1992.
233 The 2004/11/1-14 UAP sightings from the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group occurred almost
234 simultaneously with a burst of powerful geomagnetic storms 2004/11/7 Kp=8, 2004/11/8 Kp=9-
235 , 2004/11/9 Kp=9-, 2004/11/10 Kp=9- shown in Table 1, accompanied by several CMEs, [23];
236 sandwiched between the 2004/10/14 and 2004/10/27 eclipses and 2005/1/10 New Moon-perigee;
237 and followed by the 2004/12/26 magnitude 9.1 earthquake contemporaneous with 2004/12/26 Full
238 Moon. According to [22], the 2004/11/8 storm was the second strongest of 1996 2005 with
239 Dst = - 373. The 2003/11/4 solar are, the most powerful one known, preceded the sightings by
240 about a year; it was contemporaneous with the 2003/11/23 New Moon-perigee-eclipse. Was it a
241 mere coincidence or were the UAP sightings a harbinger of the 2004/12/26 earthquake that, along
242 with accompanying tsunami, took close to a quarter-million lives, that, along with accompanying
243 tsunami, took close to a quarter-million lives?
244 7 The 2010 2016 period.

245 Although, as expected, the 2011 maximum in the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed in Figure
246 7 produced the 2014 maximum in the 12-month running sum of UAP sightings, the value of the
247 latter was disproportionably larger than the value of the former. Similarly, the two graphs in
248 Figure 8 no longer resemble each other past 2011, while the distribution of powerful seismic events
249 in Figure 9 no longer shadows the speed of the magnetic North Pole after 2010. The post-2010
250 discrepancies are most likely due to an increase in the tidal force.
251 On 2010/1/30, 2011/3/19, 2012/5/6, 2013/6/23, 2014/8/10, 2015/9/28, 2016/11/14 Full
252 Moon-perigees, Full Moon and perigee came within, correspondingly, 165, 59, 2, 23, 27, 65, and
253 150 minutes or each other, [19]; the 2-minute separation between New/Full Moon and perigee on
254 2012/5/6 was the second smallest in the known history. The increases in tidal force due to the Full
255 Moon and perigee were synchronized for ve years in a row; the resulting tidal force was further
256 amplied by the 2010/1/29, 2012/5/7, 2013/6/20 lunar nodes, and 2015/9/27 eclipse. We shall
257 refer to the 2010 2016 period as the 2010 2016 synchronization. On 1781/10/17 New Moon
258 and perigee were separated by 1 minute and accompanied by an eclipse; but during the previous
259 and subsequent New Moon-perigees on 1780/8/20 and 1782/12/4, New Moon and perigee were
260 separated by much longer periods; the synchronization of the increases in tidal force due to New
261 Moon and perigee lasted fewer years.
262 The increase in tidal force due to the 2010 2016 synchronization was relatively small, but it
263 was contemporaneous and likely contributed to a spate of rather extraordinary seismic events: 1)
264 a never-before-seen alignment of magnitude ⩾ 7.9 earthquakes with Full Moon-perigees shown in
265 Table 2; 2) the unexplained birth of Lac de Gafsa in a desert in Tunisia in 2014/7/ in the middle
Full Moon-perigee days between Magnitude ⩾ 7.9 earthquakes

2010/1/30 28 2010/2/27 M=8.8 Chile
2011/3/19 8 2011/3/11 M=9.1 Japan
8 2011/3/11 M=7.9 aftershock
2012/5/6 25 2012/4/11 M=8.6 Indonesia
25 2012/4/11 M=8.2 aftershock
none 2013/2/6 M=8.0 Solomon Islands
2013/6/23 30 2013/5/24 M=8.3 Russia
none 2014/4/1 M=8.2 Chile
2014/8/10 48 2014/6/23 M=7.9 Alaska
2015/9/28 12 2015/9/16 M=8.3 Alaska
2016/11/14 33 2016/12/17 M=7.9 Papua New Guinea
Table 2: Alignment of magnitude ⩾ 7.9 earthquakes, [3], with Full Moon-perigees in 2010/1/1
2016/12/31, [19]. Full Moon-perigees recur approximately every 412 - 413 days. In 2010/1/1/
2017/1/1, ≈ 91% of M ⩾ 7.9 earthquakes struck within 48 days of a Full Moon-perigee. If
earthquakes struck randomly, only ≈ 412 96
× 11 ⩽ 3 earthquakes would be expected to strike
within 48 days of a Full Moon-perigee; not all 9. The 2014/4/1 earthquake was not within 48 days
of a Full Moon-perigee; however, it coincided with the 2014/3/30 2014/4/1 New Moon and lunar
node and followed a rather unusual coalescence of the 2014/1/1 New Moon-perigee and 2014/1/4
perihelion, resulting in an increased tidal force. The 2014/4/1 earthquake followed the 2014/3/30
18:48 New Moon and 2014/4/1 2:30 lunar node.
Figure 20: Electron dierential uxes in the inner Van Allen Belt from the MagEIS instruments
on the Van Allen Probes spacecraft, [33]. Flux here is in units of #/(cm2 ssrKeV ). Data from
both RBSP A and B are shown in color (log10(ux)) binned in time and L shell during the period
from launch in September 2012 through February 2016. From top to bottom, each plot shows
results from a dierent energy channels, as labeled in the top right of each plot. The graph shows
ux drop for low L around 2013/10/ 2015/3/, with the most prominent drop around 2014/7/
2014/8/.
Figure 21: The top triplet shows L-time cartographies of unidirectional proton ux measured by
NPOES-15/SEM2 for several energies: 0.24-0.8 MeV (at the bottom), 0.8-2.5 MeV (in the middle)
and 2.5-6.9 MeV (at the top), [34]. L∗ is the radius (in Earth radii) of a particle's drift around the
Earth if the magnetic eld adiabatically relaxed to a dipole conguration. In the bottom graph,
the monthly UAP sightings are superimposed on the bottom part of the top triplet with a ≈ 6.5-
month lag. UAP sightings mirror proton ux: the crests of monthly UAP sightings correspond to
gaps in the proton ux; that is especially well-pronounced in 2010 2016.
266 of a drought; 3) three magnitude ⩾ 8.5 earthquakes struck three years in a row on 2010/2/27,
267 2011/3/11, 2012/4/11, accompanied by the 2011/6/30-4 VEI=5 eruption of Puyehue, only once
268 before in the known history three magnitude ⩾ 8.5 earthquakes struck three years in a row
269 on 1963/10/13, 1964/3/28, 1965/2/4, accompanied by the 1963/3/18 VEI=5 eruption of Agung,
270 [3, 15]; 4) 2014 geomagnetic jerk, [35]. The near-Earth events were no less dramatic and included:
271 1) the only known appearance of the third Van Allen Belt on 2012/9/2, followed by changes and
272 eventual recovery of the known Belts' structure, [36]; 2) the only observed space hurricane detected
273 on 2014/8/20, [37]; 3) a drop in electron ux in the inner Van Allen Belt centering on 2014/7/
274 2014/8/, illustrated in Figure 20; 4) a remarkable correspondence of the gaps in the proton
275 ux in the Van Allen Belts to the crests of monthly UAP sightings, illustrated in Figure 21; 5)
276 the 2013/2/15 Cheliabinsk bolide at 55.15o N, 61.41o E; 6) the 2014/1/8 arrival on Earth of the
277 purportedly rst interstellar meteor, [38]. The 2014/7/ unexplained birth of Lac de Gafsa, the
278 2014/8/20 space hurricane, the most prominent part of the drop in electron ux in Figure 20,
279 and the biggest drop in proton ux in Figure 21, all occurred close to the all-time high in UAP
280 sightings in July August, 2014.
281 July August, 2014 also marked the beginning of the mid-2014 early-2015 undulations
282 in cosmic ray intensity shown in Figure 22. Cosmic rays are known to exhibit 27-day variability
283 attributed to the solar synodic period, [39]; but Figure 22 points to the Moon as another signicant
284 contributor to the undulations, possibly more signicant than the solar synodic period. We may
285 speculate that the undulations resulted from some sort of resonance between the frequencies of the
286 lunar motion and the 27-day variability; the exact nature of the resonance is not clear. Since the
287 only known source of energetic particles that could be inuenced by the Moon is the Van Allen
288 Belts, we must hypothesize that the undulations were produced by secondary particles created not
289 only by cosmic rays but also by energetic particles from the Van Allen Belts; that is a very strong
290 hypothesis that is surely going to be frowned upon by specialists, but there seems to be no other
291 plausible explanation.
292 The tidal force produced by the 2010 2016 synchronization must have "shaken" the Van
293 Allen Belts similarly to magnetopause shadowing, when a gust of solar wind, a solar are, or another
294 solar emission interferes with the particles' drift around magnetic lines forcing them in all directions;
295 the only dierence is that solar emissions are replaced by tidal force applied periodically. A similar
Figure 22: Cosmic rays variations, daily resolution, [40]. It shows rather unusual undula-
tions in 2014/6/20 2015/2/13 with the crests/troughs marked correspondingly by red/green.
Crests/troughs are close to lunar nodes, crests are close to New Moon, troughs are close to Full
Moon, [19]. Although 27-day variability in cosmic rays is well-known and attributed to the solar
synodic period, it has never been so strongly exhibited; nor is it well-understood for as [41] points
out "existing theoretical models are not able to adequately reproduce characteristics of 27-day
variations in the particle ux".
296 eect is produced by changes in the Earth's magnetic eld, when the changing shape of the magnetic
297 the vast majority of UAP originate in

lines "shakes" particles. We may hypothesize that
298 the Van Allen Belts; changes in the Earth's magnetic eld and/or changes in the
299 tidal force "shake" energetic particles similarly to magnetopause shadowing; which in
300 turn aects the number of observable UAP as well as the energy and trajectory of
301 bolides and meteors. That would explain the similarity in the graphs of the magnetic North
302 Pole's modeled speed and the 12-month running sum of UAP sightings in Figure 7 as well as lunar
303 inuence on the frequency of UAP sightings.
304 Since the energy distribution of cosmic rays peaks around 300 MeV, the energy of protons
305 in the inner Van Allen Belt, typically under 50 MeV, may not appear to be sucient to aect the
306 reading of the cosmic ray detectors. Yet, according to [33], some particles in the Van Allen Belts
307 may reach > 1 GeV; and recent work [42, 43] suggests that particles in the Van Allen Belts may
308 be accelerated to ultra-relativistic energies. With a certain leap of faith, we may hypothesize that
309 in mid-2014 early-2015 some particles in the Van Allen Belts acquired energies comparable to
310 those of cosmic rays.
311 The energetic particles appear to be able to either create larger objects or accelerate whatever
312 larger objects happen to be in their way. Our hypothesis is supported by the recent discovery of the
313 purportedly rst interstellar meteor that arrived on Earth on 2014/1/8, [38], the claim being based
314 on the pattern and value of the impact velocity. It is hard to imagine that such a distinguished guest
315 arrived on Earth 1) in the middle of the 2010 2016 synchronization and merely months before the
316 undulations in Figure 22; 2) at the time of increased tidal force due to the 2014/1/1 New Moon-
317 perigee, 2014/1/4 perihelion, 2014/1/5 Jupiter opposition, 2014/1/11 Venus-Sun conjunction; 3)
318 at the end of the 2013/1/25 2014/1/8 period that boasted the largest number of meteor bursts
319 per 12 months, [44]. It is much more likely that it was a regular meteor whose velocity pattern
320 was changed while passing through the Van Allen Belts. The nd suggests that most UAP are
321 either similar meteors with additional energy acquired while passing through the Van Allen Belts
322 or lumps of energetic particles from the Belts.
323 Our hypothesis is not as far-fetched as it may appear to some. Recent research [45, 46]
324 shows that celestial events like γ− bursts, solar ares, CMEs, etc. are capable of blowing up holes
325 in the ozone layer and making currents ow in Earth; much less is required to create localised
326 atmospheric structures perceived as UAP.
327 The 2-minute proximity of the Full Moon and perigee on 2012/5/6 was most likely the reason
328 why the year 2012 had a prominent place in the Mayan Calendar; if that is so, then the ancient
329 Maya could calculate lunar positions with the precision far exceeding ours.
330 8 Post-2018.
331 The pre-2018 part of the monthly global UAP sightings in Figure 5 attains yearly maxima in
332 July of the year in 2007 2018 or close to July in 1992 2006. The situation is quite dierent
333 in 2019 2021: there is no clear yearly maximum for 2019, the yearly maximum for 2020 was
334 attained in April, and the local maximum for 2021 was attained in May. It is very tempting to
335 attribute it to Starlink satellites and/or covid19, but neither of them seems to be able to explain
336 why in 2017/11/ 2022/3/ all but one two-month maxima were close to increases in tidal force and
Figure 23: Monthly global UAP sightings reported in 2017/11/ 2022/8/, [2]. Let us call a local
maximum two-month maximum, if it is larger than all values in the two preceding and two following
months. Almost all two-month maxima popped up close to the increases in tidal force, the only
exception being 2020/8/, which is most likely an artifact of covid19 restrictions. At the height
of covid19 restrictions in 2020, few people went outside, hence few people observed and reported
UAP. The 2019/6/, 2019/11/ dips could be artifacts of the rst two massive Starlink launches
of 60 satellites on 2019/5/24, 2019/11/11, [9], legitimate UAP likely were mistaken for Starlink
satellites and not reported. The 2020/4/ maximum might be partially due to Starlink satellites;
but its timing, so close to a Full Moon-perigee, suggests that something else must have contributed
to it. Also shown are all magnitude ⩾ 7.9 earthquakes, [3], and VEI ⩾ 3 eruptions, [15]; all but
the two seismic events shown at the top showed a propensity for the days of higher tidal force.
The graph was produced based on data available on 2022/9/20.
337 clusters of powerful seismic activity as demonstrated in Figure 23. Although reports of Starlink
338 satellites may have contributed to the 2020/4/ maximum, they are unlikely to be the only cause
339 of the 2020/4/ maximum.
340 Figure 23 echoes Figure 12: Figure 12 covers three months at the end of the 1936 1952
341 period of powerful auroras and increased earthquake activity, at the time of decreasing modeled
342 speed of the magnetic North Pole; Figure 23 covers four years at the end of the 1989 2016 period
343 that saw powerful solar ares, increased earthquake activity, at the time of decreasing modeled
344 speed of the magnetic North Pole. In 1995 2017, almost each New/Full Moon-perigee produced
345 an increase in UAP sightings, albeit sometimes very small; yet not all increases corresponded to
346 New/Full Moon-perigees.
347 That the monthly UAP sightings in 2006 2018 attained annual maxima in July is tempting
348 to attribute to the human factor, July is the most popular month for sky gazing and, hence, seeing
349 UAP. Yet, Figure 21 shows that the July maxima in UAP sightings nicely t with the minima in
350 unidirectional proton ux in the Van Allen Belts, the latter cannot be attributed to the human
351 factor; as a matter of fact, most people reporting UAP are not even aware of the Van Allen Belts'
352 very existence. What is important here is not that both the unidirectional proton ux and the
353 12-month running sum show seasonality, but that the seasonality in the unidirectional proton ux
354 started at about the same time as the monthly UAP maxima in UAP count exceeded 800 and
355 ended at about the same time as the monthly maxima fell below 800.
356 The 2020/4/ maximum in UAP sightings is a mystery in itself as its cause is not known;
357 however, it was preceded by another rather strange event. Although it may be attributed to
358 Starlink satellites, [9], there was likely another factor contributing to the maximum. In January
359 2020, numerous outlets reported abnormal tides peaking around 2020/1/13-14, [47]; the high and
360 low tides were far o practically-always-reliable charts and did not t theoretical predictions.
361 2020/1/13-14 was far away from New/Full Moon-perigees but followed 2019/12/26, 20120/1/9
362 eclipses, and 2020/1/5 perihelion; neither one suces to explain unusual tides. Unaware of the
363 tides, LIGO mistook their eect on its instruments for a burst of gravitational waves supposedly
364 foretelling an impending collapse of Betelgeuse; as of 2022/8/10, as well as the only known 2020/1/5
365 and 2020/1/15 detections of neutron star-black hole coalescences. Only after the author of this
366 paper informed LIGO of the unusual tides in a 2022/4/12 email, did LIGO retract its claims of
367 the 2020/1/14 burst of gravitational waves and 2020/1/5 neutron star-black hole coalescence. The
368 claim of the 2020/1/15 event has not yet been retracted. Thus, something aected tidal forces in
369 January 2020, which may in turn have caused the 2020/4/ maximum in monthly UAP sightings.
370 However, we cannot pinpoint exactly what it was.
371 A recent video of a UAP over Red Rock Canyon and Keystone Thrust Fault in Nevada
372 on 2019/8/10 shot from Las Vegas 36.175o N, 115.136o W, has been making rounds on the Inter-
373 net, [48]. The sighting came on the heels of the Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence of three earth-
374 quakes 2019/7/4 35.705o N, 117.504o W magnitude 6.4, 2019/7/5 35.76o N 117.575o W magnitude
375 5.4, 2019/7/6 35.77o N, 117.6o W magnitude 7.1; and two earthquakes by Little Lake 2019/7/6
376 35.91o N, 117.685o W magnitude 5.4, 2019/7/6 35.9o N, 117.75o W magnitude 5.5, [3]. The trem-
377 blers followed 2019/7/2 New Moon-eclipse and 2019/7/5 perigee. Figure 13 illustrates all magni-
378 tude ⩾ 7.1 earthquakes in and near the 48 contiguous states.

379 9 UAP and temperature.

380 Figure 24 shows a remarkable similarity of global temperature in 1996/3/ 2019/12/ to the
381 1995/1 1921/4/ portion of the 12-month running sum of UAP sightings. Pre-1995 UAP data
382 is too small to make a meaningful comparison; instead, in Figure 26, global temperature in 1900
383 2019 is compared to the speed of the magnetic North Pole acting as a proxy for the 12-month
384 running sum of UAP sightings.
Figure 24: The top graph is the

1995/1/ 1921/4/ portion of the 12-
month running sum from Figure 5;
the bottom graph is the 1996/3/
2019/12/ portion of the annual
global temperature anomalies in o C
in 1900 2020 by six agencies, [49].
The gray lines a - g divide both
graphs into similar parts; the parts
of the two graphs between each pair
of consecutive gray lines are quite
similar suggesting that the processes
described by the two graphs are re-
lated. Lines e and f enclose both
the largest uninterrupted tempera-
ture increase in the bottom graph
and the largest uninterrupted in-
crease in annual UAP sightings in the
top graph. The 2014 and 2020 tem-
perature maxima correspond to the
2012/7/ and 2014/5/ UAP maxima.
Figure 25: 100 The top graph shows the an-

nual global temperature anomalies in o C in
1900 2020 by six agencies, [49]; the bottom
graph shows the speed of the magnetic North
Pole constructed from NOAA's data, [11];
the 1900 2010 portions of the two graphs
exhibit unequivocal similarity, the gray lines
indicate which points on the two graphs cor-
respond to each other. The bottom graph is
the speed of the magnetic North Pole; the
gray lines indicate which points on the two
graphs correspond to each other.
385 The graphs in Figure 25 show almost exact match, the only mismatch is that the 1935
386 maximum in the speed of the magnetic North Pole is smaller than the 1950 one, while the global
387 temperature in 1935 is larger than that in 1950. Since the global temperature is a rather quirky
388 quantity computed dierently by dierent agencies, in Figure 26, we compare the speed of the
389 magnetic North Pole to the temperature actually measured and recorded since 1659 the match
390 is impeccable.
Figure 26: The top graph shows the mean

Central England temperature annual anoma-
lies in 1900 2010 in blue and its average in
red, numerical data is from Met Oce, [50];
this is the longest-kept temperature record in
the world stretching back to 1659. The bot-
tom graph is the speed of the magnetic North
Pole. The gray lines indicate which points on
the two graphs correspond to each other; the
similarity of the two graphs is unequivocal.
How can these two graphs be so much simi-
lar?
391 10 The danger posed by UAP.

392 With UAP sharing the sky with airplanes, their encounters are inevitable. The time frame of
393 almost daily encounters of US Navy pilots with undetermined aerial objects high in the skies over
394 the East Coast reported by the US Defense Department[51], coincided with the time frame of
395 the undulations of Figure 22, whose beginning coincided with an all-time high in monthly UAP
396 undulations. The larger 2012 2016 period was marked by numerous close calls reported by
397 airplane crews, [52]. There are old accounts of UAP even inside aircraft, [53, 54], such UAP are
398 potentially capable of causing res. But have any airplanes been downed by UAP? Here are the
399 most likely candidates from 1990 2020, [55]; where we would like to emphasize the use of the word
400 "likely" rather than "certain". The accidents reveal a rather eery connection to seismic activity.
401 1996/7/17 40.65o N, 72.63o W TWA 800 fuel tank exploded after being hit by a streak of
402 light of undetermined origin. The accident occurred close to the 1996/7/15 Mew Moon and
403 1996/7/30 Full Moon-perigee
404 1997/12/19 2.46o N, 104.94o E SilkAir 185 was attributed to the captain's suicide; but the
405 investigation revealed 'chip-outs' and numerous burrs of unknown origin on the servo valve
406 of the plane's rudder, as if something hit the aircraft in the air.
407 1998/9/2 44.41o N, 63.97o W Swissair 111 explosion was caused by onboard re of unknown
408 origin.
409 1999/10/31 40.35o N, 69.76o W EgyptAir 990 was attributed to the pilot's suicide, yet the
410 black box recordings suggest that there was something outside the aircraft.
411 The four aforementioned disasters occurred at the time when the magnetic North Pole's mod-
412 eled speed and the frequency of UAP sightings drastically increased. Three of them, TWA 800,
413 EgyptAir 990, Swissair 111, were close not only temporally but also geographically; almost daily
414 encounters of US Navy pilots with undetermined aerial objects high in the skies over the East
415 Coast reported by the US Defense Department in mid-2014 early-2015 were reported not too
416 far from the accidents, [51]. TWA 800, EgyptAir 990, Swissair 111 crashed relatively close to
417 the epicenter 44.475o N, 55.99o W of the 1929/11/18 earthquake in Figure 1 and 1967/10/4 Shag
418 Harbour UAP sighting at 43.5o N, 65.7o W.
419 2002/5/25 23.99o N, 119.68o E China Airlines 611 was attributed to fatigue cracking, but
420 the plane crashed right at the center of seismic activity as shown in Figure 27.
Figure 27: The circles mark earthquakes of magnitude

⩾ 5 in 2002/5/20-28 in 8o S − 50o N, 35o E − 147o E, [3].
Quakes labeled by the same color struck within 11 hours
of each other. The lines connecting earthquakes of the
same color intersect at a point close to the magnitude 6.1
earthquake marked red and the site of the 2002/5/25 China
Airlines 611 crash at 23.99o N, 119.68o E.
421 2005/10/25 6.81o N, 3.31o E Bellview Airlines 210, undetermined cause, but the plane
422 crashed right at the center of seismic activity as shown in Figure 28.
Figure 28: The circles mark magnitude ⩾ 4

earthquakes in 2005/10/18-24, [3]. Quakes
marked by the same color struck within 11 hours
of each other. The lines connecting quakes of the
same color almost intersect at the same point;
more precisely they form a small triangle not too
far from the crash site of Bellview Airlines 210 on
2005/10/25 at 6.81o N, 3.31o E.
423 2013/11/29 18.24o S, 21.92o E LAM Mozambique Airline 470 was attributed to the pilot's
424 suicide, but the black box indicated strange sounds interpreted by investigators as if "someone
425 pounded on the cockpit door before the crash".
426 2014/3/7 Malaysia Airlines 370, just vanished from radars. A cloud of plasma enveloping
427 the aircraft could have easily blocked it out of radar sight, somewhat similarly to stealth
428 technology. Unable to communicate with the outside world, the crew could not land in a
429 regular airport, the closest airport where the crew could have landed is Learmonth where the
430 crew appeared to be heading judging by its last known locations.
431 2014/7/24 15.14o N, 1.08o W Air Algerie 5017 was likely caused by obstruction of pressure
432 sensors, the cause of the obstruction was not determined but might have been a UAP; the
433 plane crashed right at the cross-hairs of seismic activity shown in Figure 29. Pico do Fogo,
434 located west of the crash site, erupted in 2014/11/23 2015/2/8, while Nabro erupted on
435 2011/6/12.
Figure 29: The circles mark magnitude ⩾ 4 earthqua-

kes from 2014/7/21 22:00 UTC to 2014/7/30 1:00 UTC
in 15o S − 40o N, 44o W − 39o E, [3]. Quakes marked by the
same color struck within 9.25 hours of each other. The lines
connecting quakes of the same color intersect at a point
within a few kilometers of the crash site of 2014/7/24 Air
Algeirie 5017 at 15.14o N, 1.08o W. Compare to Figure 28.
436 2014/12/27 3.62o S, 109.71o E AirAsia 8501, captain removed breaker to cut power, radar
437 data showed an "unbelievably steep climb" as if the pilot was trying to avoid something in
438 front of the aircraft.
439 2015/3/24 Germanwings 9525 was attributed to the co-pilot's suicide in less than 48 hours.
440 Yet there were six more imsily explained commercial airplane crashes in the area, described
441 in Figure 30; all six crashes occurred along a circular arc centered at the largest European
442 sinkhole. Three years later, Ju-Air Junkers Ju52 crashed in the area in exactly the same
443 manner as Germanwings 9525. All seven accidents occurred within 36 days of a New/Full
444 Moon-perigee. All seven crashes occurred in the same area where foo ghters were sighted
445 in the 1940s.
airline, distance
ight number, to Crveno
date of crash, and Jerzeo, Se-
coordinates of the crash site tina in km
Swissair 330 1970/2/21 47.536o N, 8.240o E 832, 801
Crossair 498 2000/1/10 47.47o N, 8.47o E 814, 782
Air India 101 1966/1/24 45.878o N, 6.867o E 860, 823
Air India 245 1950/11/3 45.833o N, 6.860o E 859, 822
Air France 178 1953/9/1 44.291o N, 6.699o E 847, 807
Germanwings 9525 2015/3/24 44.281o N, 6.439o E 868, 827
Ju-Air Junkers Ju52 2018/8/4 46.9o N, 9.22o E 732, 701
Figure 30: Six commercial and one private poorly explained airplane crashes in the Alps and
their distances to sinkhole Crveno Jezero at 43.453o N, 17.197o E, named after the reddish-brown
color of the surrounding clis colored by iron oxides, and sinkhole "eye of the Earth" near Setina
at 43.440o N, 16.686o E. Crveno Jezero and the "eye of the Earth" are separated by ≈ 42 km.
The 1566/7/23-24 celestial phenomenon over Basel at 47.555o N, 7.591o E, was close to the crash
sites of Swissair 330 and Crossair 498, 876 km from Crveno Jezero, 843 km from Setima; and the
1561/4/14 celestial phenomenon over Nuremberg at 49.454o N, 11.0775o E, also occurred 815 km
from Crveno Jezero and 795 km from Setima; it was shortly followed by an unusual earthquake in
Italy, [57]. The accidents occurred within 36 days of the, correspondingly, 1970/2/5, 1999/12/22,
1966/2/5, 1950/12/9, 1953/9/23, 2015/2/19, 2018/7/13 New/Full Moon-perigees. The proba-
bility that a random event strikes seven times within 36 days of a New/Full Moon-perigee is
144 7
⩽ 0.00065 < 0.1%. The 1561/4/14, 1566/7/23-24 events also occurred within 36 days of

412
the 1561/4/29, 1566/6/17 New/Full Moon-perigees. It is hard to attribute all of these to a mere
coincidence.
446 What adds more to the mystery of the crash is the story of the 2015/3/23-24 giant microwave
447 pulse, much touted at the time but with few dead links, shown in [56], left on the Internet by 2022.
448 It has not been debunked, if it was a hoax; it has not been explained, if it was real. However,
449 Table 1 shows that the Germanwings' crash followed a powerful geomagnetic storm on 2015/3/17;
450 the 2000/1/10 crash also followed two powerful geomagnetic storms on 2000/1/6, 2000/1/7; there
451 was also a Kp=7+ geomagnetic storm on 2018/8/25, merely 21 days after the 2018/8/4 crash.
452 Unfortunately, there are no reliable records of geomagnetic storms at the time of other commercial
453 crashes in Figure 30. The pulse was preceded by the 2015/3/21 "magnetic short circuit" at CERN
454 at 46.234o N, 6.053o W, along the same arc as the crashes in Figure 30; although CERN provided
455 an explanation of the "magnetic short circuit", it was not exactly complete.
456 2015/10/31 30.17o N, 34.17o E Metrojet 9268, undetermined cause, but blamed on terrorists.
457 2016/5/19 30.68o N, 28.79o E EgyptAir 804, undetermined cause with evidence of re on-
458 board.
459 2022/3/21 23.32o N, 11.11o E China Eastern Airlines 5735, attributed to the pilot's suicide.
460 Before the crash, the plane displayed unusual ight patterns.
461 The 2014/7/24 crash was supplemented with the 2014/7/23 crash of TransAsia Airways 222
462 accompanied by unusual sounds preceding the crash; it is not listed because it was on landing. Nor
463 is the 2014/7/17 MH17 crash included in the list as it occurred near the Ukraine-Russia border at
464 the time of increased hostilities between the two countries; each country has blamed the other one
465 for shooting down the aircraft. Recent claims of UAP observed over Ukraine make the possibility
466 that the explosion of Malaysia Airlines 17 was caused by a UAP more plausible, despite numerous
467 holes in the study and numerous "debunkings". What raises eyebrows is that the three crashes
468 2014/7/17 MH17, 2014/7/23 TransAsia Airways 222, and 2014/7/2 Air Algerie 5017 occurred
469 within merely 7 days in the month with the highest ever number of UAP sightings. Depending
470 on whether 2014/7/17 MH17 and 2014/7/23 TransAsia Airways 222 crashes are counted, the 480
471 days of 2013/11/29 2015/3/24 saw ve or seven crashes; but even with ve, it would be the
472 highest number of commercial airplanes crashed in such a short time.
473 11 Interconnectedness of terrestrial and celestial phenom-

474 ena.
475 Many in the scientic establishment may consider any claim of a relationship between terrestrial
476 and celestial phenomena to be blasphemous. The existence of such a relationship is illustrated in
477 Table 3.
478 Dene a 148-minute-synchronized New/Full Moon-perigee, or simply synchronized Full Moon-
479 perigee, to be a New/Full Moon-perigee with New/Full Moon and perigee ⩽ 148 minutes apart. A
480 synchronization period is a sequence of several consecutive synchronized New/Full Moon-perigees,
481 the New/Full Moon-perigee of a synchronization period with the smallest separation between
482 New/Full Moon and perigee is referred to as the core of the synchronization period. Table 3
Table 3: Synchronization periods in 1869 2020, 1869 is when the recording of the aa index
began. The rst two columns show short New/Full Moon-perigees with their spreads, grouped
into synchronization periods; core New/Full Moon-perigees are shown in bold. The horizontal
strips between consecutive synchronization periods show the time between them. The third column
shows events that may augment the tidal force. The fourth column shows whether the syzygy was
a New or Full Moon and the length of the synchronization period. The fth column shows the
years of aa maxima, illustrated in Figure 31. The sixth column contains all M ⩾ 8.4 earthquakes
and VEI ⩾ 5 eruptions in 1869 2019. Dividing 51,886 days between 2012/5/6 and 1870/4/15 by
14 gives the average time of recurrence of synchronization periods as 3,704 days or 10.14 years.
synchronized sp nearby eclipse, New aa M ⩾ 8.5 earthquakes, [3], comments

New/Full re lunar node, or max- and to earthquakes
Moon-perigees, ad perihelion, [19] Full ima, VEI ⩾ 5 eruptions,[15] and eruptions,
[19] [19] Moon [58] [18, 19, 58]
2030/5/17 137 next synchronized syzygy-perigee
2024/3/10 2030/5/17 = 6 years 68 days
2024/3/10 116 New The annual aa maximum and a
2023/1/21 4 2023/1/4 perihelion 2y pickup in seismic activity expected
2021/12/4 137 2021/12/3 eclipse 97d 2022/1/15 Hunga Tonga VEI=5 2022/1/17 Full Moon
2015/9/27 2021/12/4 = 6 years 67 days
2015/9/28 65 2015/9/27 eclipse Full 2015
2014/8/10 27 2014/4/ solar maximum
2013/6/23 23 4y 2012/4/6-10 Full Moon,
2012/5/6 2 2012/5/7 lunar node 193 2012/4/11 M=8.6 Indonesia perigee, unar node
d 2011/6/3-4 Puyehue VEI=5 2011/6/1 lunar eclipse
2011/3/19 59 2011/3/11 M=9.1 Japan 2011/3/10 CME
2010/2/27 M=8.8 Chile 2010/2/25-28 Full Moon,
2005/1/10 2011/3/19 = 6 years 68 days perigee, lunar node
2005/1/10 116 2005/1/2 perihelion New 2005/3/28 M=8.6 Indonesia 2005/3/25 Full Moon
2003/11/23 15 2003/11/23 eclipse 2y 2003 2004/12/26 M=9.1 Indonesia 2004/12/26 Full Moon
2002/10/6 120 96 d 2001/11/ solar maximum
1993/3/8 2002/10/6 = 9 years 214 days
1993/3/8 71 Full 1991/8/8-10 New
1992/1/19 58 1992/1/18 lunar node 1 y 1991/8/8-12 Hudson VEI=5 Moon & lunar node
No Full Moon-perigee in 1991 48 d 1991 1991/6/15 Pinatubo VEI=6 1991/6/12-14 New
1985/11/12 1992/1/19 = 6 years 68 days Moon & lunar node
1985/11/12 110 1985/11/11 eclipse New 1991/6/1-15 ve X12
1984/9/25 20 solar ares
1983/8/8 13 5y 1989/11/ solar maximum
1982/6/21 17 1982/6/22 eclipse 241 1982 1982/3/-/5/Chichon VEI=5 1982 had four
1981/5/4 32 d X9.8 - X12.9 solar ares
1980/3/16 93 1980/3/14 lunar node 1980/5/18 St Helen VEI=5 1979/12/ solar maximum
1974/1/8 1980/3/16 = 6 years 67 days
1974/1/8 76 1974/1/7 lunar node 1y 1974
1972/11/20-21 49 48 d
1965/7/28 1972/11/20 = 7 years 115 days 1968/11/ solar maximum
1965/7/28 145 New 1965/2/4 M=8.7 Alaska
1964/6/10 143 1964/6/11 eclipse 1964/3/28 M=9.2 Alaska 1964/3/28 Full Moon
1963/4/23 116 4y 1963/10/13 M=8.5 Kurils
1962/3/6 39 1962/3/4 lunar node 193 1963/3/18 Agung VEI=5
1961/1/16 89 1961/1/2 perihelion d 1960 1960/5/22 M=9.5 Chile 1960/5/25 New Moon
1958/3/ solar maximum
1954/11/10 1961/1/16 = 6 years 67 days 1957/3/9 M=8.6 Alaska 19 geomagnetic storms
1956/3/30 Bezymiany VEI=5 in 1956/2/14-1960/11/3
continued on the next page must have contributed to the 1956-1965 seismic events
continued from the previous page
1954/11/10 70 Full
1953/9/23 13
1952/8/5 51 1952/8/6 eclipse 5y 1952/11/4 M=9.0 Kamchatka 1952/11/1 Full Moon
1951/6/19 55 241 1951 1950/8/13-16 New
1950/5/2 72 d 1950/8/15 M=8.6 India Moon & lunar node
1949/3/14 140 1949/3/16 lunar node 1947/5/ solar maximum
1943/1/6 1949/3/14 = 6 years 67 days 1946/4/1 M=8.6 Alaska 1946/4/2-3 New Moon, perigee
1946/3/23 geomagnetic
1943/1/6 30 1943/1/2 perihelion 1y 1943 storm
1941/11/19 98 48 d
1938/2/1 M=8.5 Papua New 1938/1/31 New Moon
1935/9/12 1941/11/19 = 6 years 68 days Guinea 1938/1/27-28 geomagnetic storm
1937/4/ solar maximum
27 geomagnetic storms of 1936/6/10-1951/9/23 must have co-
1935/9/12 130 Full ntribute to the 1938
1934/7/26 104 1934/7/26 eclipse 1952 earthquakes
1933/6/8 99 5y 1933/1/8 Kharimkotan VEI=5 1933/1/11 Full Moon
1932/4/20 76 241 1932/4/10 Cerro Azul VEI=6
1931/3/4 11 1931/3/6 lunar node d
1930/1/14-15 124 1930/1/3 perihelion 1930
1923/11/8 27 New
1922/9/21 60 1922/9/21 eclipse 1922/11/11 M=8.5 Chile
1921/8/3 79 4y
1920/6/16 87 192
1919/4/30 107 1919/5/1 lunar node d 1919
1913/2/21 117 Full 1913/1/20 Colima VEI=5 1913/1/22 Full Moon
1912/1/4 5 1912/1/3 perihelion 2y 1912/6/6 Novarupta VEI=6
1910/11/17 131 1910/11/16 eclipse 96 d 1910
1907/3/28 Ksudach VEI=5 1907/3/29 Full Moon
1905/10/28 1910/11/17 = 6 years 69 days 1907/2/10 geomagnetic storm
1906/1/31 M=8.8 Ecuador 1906/2/ solar maximum
1904/9/9 87 1904/9/9 eclipse New n
1903/7/24 69 o
1902/6/6 73 4y n 1902/10/24 St Maria VEI=5-6
1901/4/18 41 1901/4/20 lunar node 192 e
1900/3/1 40 d
1893/12/23 1900/3/1 = 6 years 68 days 1897/9/20-21 M=8.7 Philippines 1894/1/ solar maximum
1893/12/23 114 Full
1892/11/4 4 1892/11/4 eclipse 1892
1891/9/18 87 5y 1891/10/27 M=8.4 Japan
1890/7/31 119 241
1889/6/13 128 1889/6/14 lunar node d
1888/4/26 148
1882/2/18 1888/4/26 = 6 years 67 days 1886/6/10 Tarawera VEI=5 1883/12/ solar maximum
1883/8/27 Krakatoa VEI=6
1882/2/18 86 1y 1882
1880/12/31 44 1880/12/30 eclipse 49 d
1874/10/25 1880/12/31 = 6 years 67 days
1874/10/25 126 1874/10/24 eclipse Full 1875/3/29 Askja VEI=5
1873/9/6 56
1872/7/20 36 5y 1872
1871/6/3 28 1871/6/4 lunar node 241
1870/4/15 6 d 1870/8/ solar maximum
1869/2/26 84 1869/2/25 lunar node
Figure 31: The aa index vs sunspot numbers, [58]. The vertical numbers indicate the years of
the aa maxima in Table 3. Dividing the number of days 52,473 between solar maxima 1870/8/
and 2014/4/ by 13 gives the average length of the solar cycle as 4036 days or 11.05 years. Solar
maximum for cycle 23 varies from source to source between 2000/3/ and 2001/11/.
483 demonstrates that all annual maxima of the aa index were either inside or right before a synchro-
484 nization period. Table 3 also reveals that in 1959 2022, all magnitude ⩾ 8.5 earthquakes and VEI
485 ⩾ 5 eruptions occurred either within a synchronization period or within 13 months before it; there
486 were quite a few exceptions to this rule in 1869 1958. The exceptions on 1957/3/9, 1956/3/30,
487 1946/4/1, 1938/2/1, 1907/3/28, 1906/1/31, 1897/9/20-21, 1886/6/10, 1883/6/27 likely resulted
488 from solar and geomagnetic activity; the last ve might have also been aected by the Carrington
489 event that also caused a rather drunk-like movement of the magnetic North Pole shown in Figure
490 18.
491 As far back as 1841, D. Minle described numerous events illustrating the interconnected-
492 ness of earthquakes, luminous phenomena, and New/Full Moon-perigees, among them 1) re-
493 balls accompanying the 1750/3/8, 1755/10/, 1795/11/18, 1816/8/13, 1818/2/20 earthquakes in
494 Great Britain, [59]; all within 38 days of the, correspondingly, 1750/3/8, 1755/11/4, 1795/11/26,
495 1816/9/21, 1818/2/20 New/Full Moon-perigees; 2) reballs accompanying the 1776/2/2 Rhode
496 Island, and 1822/11/19 Chile earthquakes, both within 17 days of, correspondingly, 1776/2/19,
497 and 1822/11/29 New/Full Moon-perigees; 3) various reballs from 1811/9/10, a week after the
498 1811/9/2 Full Moon-perigee, and until the 1822/12/16 earthquakes. Minle also mentions lightning
499 and thunder accompanying 1731/10/8, 1731/10/10, 1747/7/1, 1750/2/, 1821/10/22 earthquakes
500 and shocks; not all of these earthquakes were close to a New/Full Moon-perigee, but all were within
501 a synchronization period.
502 12 Concluding remarks.

503 It is truly bewildering that there has been no attempt to relate the unusual events and phenomena
504 occurring at the same time. The very idea promulgated by so many "experts" that UAP, earth-
505 quakes and eruptions, movement of the magnetic poles, solar ares, auroras, etc. are unrelated to
506 each other is absurd. Yet so many "experts" stridently clamor that any concomitance or similar-
507 ity of unusual events is merely coincidental, they claim there is no proof that concurrent and/or
508 similarly-behaving events might be related; even though they have no proof that the events are
509 unrelated.
510 That the highest frequency of commercial airplane crashes in 2013/11/29 2015/3/24, almost
511 daily encounters of US Navy pilots with undetermined aerial objects high in the skies over the
512 East Coast reported by the US Defense Department in mid-2014 early-2015, the undulations of
513 Figure 22 in mid-2014 early-2015, and the all-time high in UAP sightings occurred at the same
514 time is very unlikely to be a mere coincidence. Had the events been properly investigated and
515 studied, the commercial airplane accidents and resulting fatalities might have been mitigated or
516 even completely avoided. The 2010 2016 period presented an incredible opportunity to study
517 the relationship between dierent geophysical phenomena; while the mid-2014 early-2015 period
518 with its large number of commercial airplane disasters indicated a likely relationship between
519 geophysical phenomena and air disasters. While the planes were crashing and people were dying,
520 the "experts" kept on repeating the same refrain "correlation does not mean causation".
521 UAP also appear to have a connection to seismic events. The disastrous 2011/3/19 mag-
522 nitude 9.1 earthquake struck merely 8 days before a Full Moon-perigee, during the 2010 2016
523 synchronization when UAP sightings drastically increased. It was also predictable and predicted
524 by more than one person, yet, the predictions were dismissed by "experts" to the tune of 15,000
525 fatalities and the Fukushima nuclear meltdown. The disastrous 2004/12/26 magnitude 9.1 earth-
526 quake that took close to a quarter-million lives struck on the day of the Full Moon, and merely a
527 month after the 2004/11/ Nimitz UAP sightings; had the relationship between dierent phenom-
528 ena been properly studied, this disaster might have been mitigated. It is quite possible that many
529 UAP and earthquake lights are dierent facets of the same phenomenon, [61].
530 While there is currently much ado about aliens coming to Earth with many organizations
531 and government agencies on standby to set up welcome committees, absolutely nothing has been
532 done to look at possible relationships between dierent natural phenomena.
533 On 2023/1/21, New Moon and perigee will be separated by merely three minutes; the increase
534 in tidal force around 2023/1/21 will be considerable but very short-lived; thus, there will be a
535 considerable but short-lived likelihood of increased seismic and UAP activity around 2023/1/21.
536 On 2042/3/21, 2043/5/9, 2044/6/25, 2045/8/12, New Moon and perigee will come within an hour
537 of each other, likely causing a longer increase in seismic and UAP activity.
538 References
539 [1] Rayleigh, The Principle of Similitude, Nature, 1915, 95, pp. 66 68, https://doi.org/10.
540 1038/095066c0. 2
541 [2] UFO Reporting Center, frequency per month http://www.nuforc.org/webreports/
542 ndxevent.html, frequency per state https://nuforc.org/webreports/ndxloc.html 2, 3,

543 5, 6, 26
544 [3] USGS earthquake catalog https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ is used
545 for post-1900 earthquakes, and NOAA earthquake database https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/
546 hazel/view/hazards/earthquake/search is used for pre-1900 earthquakes. 2, 3, 4, 8, 11,

547 12, 13, 15, 16, 21, 23, 26, 27, 30, 31, 34
548 [4] Seismic events in or near New England http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/49-35-
549 unnamed.html, pre-1901 centuries https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70162663,

550 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Volcanoes-and-volcanic-islands-of-
551 the-Atlantic-Ocean-The-Mid-Atlantic-Ridge-does-not_fig3_304988306, https:
552 //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1663_Charlevoix_earthquake, https://en.wikipedia.org/
553 wiki/1755_Cape_Ann_earthquake. 3
554 [5] New Mexico volcanoes https://nmnaturalhistory.org/volcanoes/new-mexico-land-
555 volcanoes, Rio Grande Rift https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_Grande_rift,

556 https://www.facebook.com/CapulinVolcanoNPS/photos/why-are-there-volcanoes-
557 in/2059788454048296/ 3
558 [6] US states ranked by population https://worldpopulationreview.com/states 3
559 [7] USGS, earthquake hazard, 2015, https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/nearly-
560 half-americans-exposed-potentially-damaging-earthquakes. 3
561 [8] NASA - JPL Fireballs https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/ 4, 7
562 [9] Launches of Starlink satellites, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starlink_
563 launches 4, 5, 26, 27
564 [10] UAP in Canada http://www.canadianuforeport.com/survey/essay/2017essay.pdf 5
565 [11] Williams, B., The Correlation of North Magnetic Dip Pole Motion and Seismic Activity,
566 Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 2016, https://www.longdom.org/open-access/the-
567 correlation-of-north-magnetic-dip-pole-motion-and-seismic-activity-2381-
568 8719-1000262.pdf, data from https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data/poles/NP.xy.
569 The graph was kindly emailed to the author of the paper on 2021/1/1. 6, 28, 40
570 [12] NOAA, Earth's magnetic eld database, https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/

571 calculators/magcalc.shtml#igrfgrid 6
572 [13] August 1972 geomagnetic and solar activity, https://www.colorado.edu/today/2018/
573 11/12/1972-solar-storm-triggered-vietnam-war-mystery, https://agupubs.

574 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018SW002024, https://science.
575 nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare, https:
576 //theconversation.com/blasts-from-the-past-how-massive-solar-eruptions-
577 probably-detonated-dozens-of-us-sea-mines-105983, https://en.wikipedia.org/
578 wiki/August_1972_solar_storm 7, 17
579 [14] Declassied UK Ministry of Defence Report https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/
580 r0ivee/uk_mod_report_exceptional_ufos_with_aerodynamic/ 7
581 [15] Eruptions database, https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazel/view/hazards/volcano/event-
582 search, https://volcano.si.edu/search_eruption.cfm. 8, 23, 26, 34

583 [16] NOAA's maps https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/magfield-wist/, database https://
584 www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/calculators/magcalc.shtml#igrfgrid. 10, 11
585 [17] CIA's `Entire' Collection of UFO Documents Online, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/
586 smart-news/you-can-now-explore-cias-entire-collection-ufo-related-documents-
587 180976756/ 11
588 [18] Space Weather Archives, http://www.solarstorms.org/SRefStorms.html. 11, 34
589 [19] Lunar data and perihelia, https://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html, http://
590 astropixels.com/ephemeris/moon/moonnodes2001.html, http://www.astropixels.com/

591 ephemeris/perap2001.html. 11, 12, 20, 21, 24, 34
592 [20] Graphs of the magnetic North Pole's modeled speed similar to [11]:
593 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:North_Magnetic_Pole_Speed.svg,
594 https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-673e957df11cc53b49997d29eed21312,
595 https://universemagazine.com/ru/myssyya-swarm-pomogla-utochnyt-vsemyrnuyu-
596 magnytnuyu-model/, https://progomel.by/tech/2019/12/845525.html, https:
597 //www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7789269/Earths-magnetic-north-
598 shifting-unprecedented-rate-30-miles-year.html, research paper https://earth-
599 planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40623-015-0228-9 12
600 [21] Tangshan earthquake, two references 1) https://www.cambridgescholars.com/resources/
601 pdfs/978-1-5275-7164-8-sample.pdf; 2) Chen, Y., Booth, D., The Great Tangshan Earth-
602 quake of 1976: An Anatomy of Disaster, 1988, 53, New York: Pergamon Press. 14
603 [22] J. Zhang, I. Richardson, D. Webb, N. Gopalswamy, E. Huttunen, J. Kasper, N. V. Nitta, W.
604 Poomvises, B. Thompson, C. Wu, S. Yashiro, A. Zhukov, Solar and interplanetary sources
605 of major geomagnetic storms (Dst ⩽ 100 nT) during 19962005, Journal of Geophysical
606 Research, vol. 112, A10102, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/
607 2007JA012321 16, 20
608 [23] Coronal mass ejections, https://izw1.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/DATA/level3/icmetable2.
609 htm, and references therein. 17, 19

610 [24] Most powerful solar ares known, https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-

611 activity/top-50-solar-flares.html, http://www.ioffe.ru/LEA/Solar/1994_en.html,
612 https://www.spaceweather.com/solarflares/topflares.html, https://www.sws.bom.
613 gov.au/Educational/2/3/9, https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/solar/solarflares.
614 html. 17
615 [25] Geomagnetic storms for 1996 2022 https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-
616 activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms.html. Top geomagnetic storms for 1900 1995

617 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_storms, the list is complemented with
618 somewhat weaker storms https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/
619 top-50-geomagnetic-storms. 17
620 [26] NOAA, Modelled magnetic poles' paths, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/historical_
621 declination/. Proper boxes need to be checked. 18
622 [27] Proceedings of the Massachusetts Historical Society, vol.II, second series, 1885 1886, page
623 105. 18
624 [28] Powerful solar ares in and around 1730. http://www.celebrateboston.com/disasters/
625 boston-solar-flare-1730.htm; https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1807/1807.

626 06496.pdf. 18
627 [29] Article https://rense.com/ufo3/visits.htm mentions an aerial phenomenon, most likely
628 of geophysical origin in 1958. 18
629 [30] Ptitsyna, N., Tyasto, M., Khrapov, B., Catalogue of aurora borealis observed in the 19th cen-
630 tury in Russia, Proceedings of the 10th Intl Conference Problems of Geocosmos , 2014, https:
631 //geo.phys.spbu.ru/materials_of_a_conference_2014/STP2014/64_Ptitsyna.pdf. 18
632 [31] Schroeder, W., On the Existence of the 11-Year Cycle in Solar and Auroral Activity before
633 and during the so-called Maunder Minimum, Journal of geomagnetism and geoelectricity, 1992
634 vol. 44 issue 2 pp. 119-128, https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jgg1949/44/2/44_2_
635 119/_article. 18
636 [32] Some references on Sasovo explosion: 1) Ol'khovatov, A., Sasovo explosions in 1991
637 and 1992, Physics of the solid Earth, English translation, 1995, 31/5, available on-
638 line at http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=

639 0CDQQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Feos.wdcb.ru%2Ftransl%2Fizve%2F9505%2Fpap13.
640 ps&ei=hCtXVNSmCcTg8AW2g4LIBg&usg=AFQjCNGkWk3KIBicWlmCEm54AOg4S0Pjjg; 2)
641 Izvestiya, November 17, 1993, p. 8; 3) Izv. AN USSR Earth Physics, 27/606,
642 1991;4)http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/89801/
643 DOC_0000112341.pdf; 5) http://www.science-frontiers.com/sf093/sf093g13.htm; 6)

644 https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0005517791.pdf. 19
645 [33] D. L. Turner, T. P. O'Brien, J. F. Fennell, S. G. Claudepierre, J. B. Blake, A. N.
646 Jaynes, D. N. Baker, S. Kanekal, M. Gkioulidou, M. G. Henderson, G. D. Reeves, In-
647 vestigating the source of near-relativistic and relativistic electrons in Earth's inner radi-
648 ation belt, GJR Space Physics, vol. 122, issue1, 2017, pp. 695-710, https://agupubs.
649 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JA023600. Similar graphs at https:

650 //angeo.copernicus.org/preprints/angeo-2018-98/angeo-2018-98.pdf. 21, 24
651 [34] Sicard, A., Bourdarie, S., Lazaro, D., Standarovski, D., Ecoet, R., et al. A new model for
652 the 1-10 MeV proton uxes (part of ONERA GREEN-V3 model). European Conference on
653 Radiation and its Eects on Components and Systems (RADECS) 2019, Montpellier, France.
654 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02797017/document 22
655 [35] Kotze, P., The 2014 geomagnetic jerk as observed by southern African magnetic observatories,
656 Earth, Planets and Space, volume 69, Article number: 17 (2017) https://earth-planets-
657 space.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40623-017-0605-7 23
658 [36] Van Allen Belts in 2012, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1233518,
659 https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/third-van-allen-radiation-belt-
660 makes-appearance-around-earth/ 23
661 [37] Qing-He Zhang et al, A space hurricane over the Earth's polar ionosphere, Nature Communi-
662 cations, vol. 12, article number: 1207 (2021), https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-
663 021-21459-y. 23
664 [38] Siraj, A., Loeb, A., Discovery of a Meteor of Interstellar Origin, https://arxiv.org/pdf/
665 1904.07224.pdf 23, 25
666 [39] Richardson, I., Solar wind stream interaction regions throughout the heliosphere, subsection
667 7.2, Living Reviews in Solar Physics (2018) 15:1, https://link.springer.com/article/
668 10.1007/s41116-017-0011-z 23
669 [40] Moscow Neutron Monitor http://cr0.izmiran.ru/mosc/main.htm, Oulu Neutron Moni-
670 tor https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/. Other monitors and data https://www.nmdb.eu/nest/,
671 http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/. 24
672 [41] Yulbarisov, R.F., Galikyan, N.G., Mayorov, A.G. et al. Amplitude and Temporal Character-
673 istics of 27-Day Variations in the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux, Measured during the PAMELA
674 Experiment between 2006 and 2016. Bull. Russ. Acad. Sci. Phys. 85, 12721275 (2021).
675 https://doi.org/10.3103/S1062873821110381. 24
676 [42] Allison, H., Shprits, Yu., Local heating of radiation belt electrons to ultra-relativistic energies,
677 Nature Communications, 2020; 11: 4533, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/
678 PMC7483540/. 24
679 [43] Allison, H., Shprits, Yu., Zhelavskaya, I., Wang, D., Smirnov, A., Gyroresonant wave-particle
680 interactions with chorus waves during extreme depletions of plasma density in the Van Allen
681 radiation belts, Science Advances, 2021, Vol 7, Issue 5, https://www.science.org/doi/10.
682 1126/sciadv.abc0380. 24
683 [44] Meteor air bursts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_air_burst. 25
684 [45] Ozaki, M., Shiokawa, K., Kataoka, R. et al. Localized mesospheric ozone destruction corre-
685 sponding to isolated proton aurora coming from Earth's radiation belt. Sci Rep 12, 16300
686 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-20548-2 25
687 [46] Phillips, T., Powerful Gamma-Ray Burst Made Currents Flow in the Earth,
688 https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/10/17/powerful-gamma-ray-burst-made-
689 currents-flow-in-the-earth/ 25
690 [47] Unusual tide. https://ph.news.yahoo.com/philippines-mindoro-residents-

691 thousands-fish-near-shoreline-witness-062608380.html, https://cnnphilippines.
692 com/regional/2020/1/13/Mindoro-residents-unusual-low-tide.html?fbclid=
693 IwAR02yoIKTyHR2igXTtqi9c4YW5M0AH_TDUUYLyG4pcPZaMXPxvzIFAcRAMs 27
694 [48] 2019/8/10 UAP in Nevada https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30EDJbdK1Bw. 27
695 [49] Global temperature, https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/state-of-

696 climate-2021-extreme-events-and-major-impacts, https://climate.metoffice.
697 cloud/temperature.html. An interactive graph is available at https://ourworldindata.
698 org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions. 28
699 [50] Mean Central England Temperature, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/,
700 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html, based on Parker

701 et al (1992), https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/Parker_etalIJOC1992_
702 dailyCET.pdf. Numerical dataset https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
703 cetml1659on.dat. 29
704 [51] New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/26/us/politics/ufo-sightings-

705 navy-pilots.html 29, 30
706 [52] Nine conrmed close-call encounters with UAP, a) 2012/12/2 http://www.ibtimes.
707 co.uk/ufo-plane-glasgow-scotland-463308#. b) 2013/6/4 http://www.dailymail.

708 co.uk/news/article-2339139/Was-bird-A-Plane-Or-UFO--Chinese-passenger-jet-
709 hits-mysterious-object-26-000ft-lands-severely-dented-nose-cone.html, http:
710 //cayodagyo.blogspot.com/2013/06/some-possibilities-of-object-that-had.html;
711 c) 2013/7/19 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/06/ufo-jet-airliner-near-
712 miss-over-uk_n_4549399.html; d) 2014/3/19 http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/4897226/

713 AO-2014-052%20Final.pdf; e) 2014/11/5 http://avherald.com/h?article=47d74074;
714 f) 2014/12/15 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loganair_Flight_6780; g) 2015/4/7
715 http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_27872975/denver-bound-icelandair-
716 flight-from-reykjavik-hit-by; h) 2016/4/17 https://www.theguardian.com/
717 technology/2016/apr/28/heathrow-ba-plane-strike-not-a-drone-incident, i)
718 2016/11/14 https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/11/14/porter-plane-in-

719 near-miss-with-drone.html; 29
720 [53] Sagan, P., Ball lightning: paradox of Physics, section Dangerous Aircraft Encounters, https:
721 //books.google.com.ph/books?id=OLbvX5UnxXoC&pg=PA70&lpg=PA70&dq=fireball+
722 inside++plane&source=bl&ots=eoA50KlxOC&sig=m6eLuY_VntccRNn8cDIdu5jV020&hl=
723 en&sa=X&ved=0CD8Q6AEwCGoVChMI_Y_iwvHcxwIVx6GUCh03Ggt9#v=onepage&q=fireball%
724 20inside%20%20plane&f=false 29
725 [54] Jennison, R., Ball Lightning, Nature, 1969/11/29 vol. 224, p. 895, https://www.nature.com/
726 articles/224895a0.pdf 29
727 [55] Unexplained, or not completely explained civilian airplane accidents in 2013 2016
728 much discussed in mass media. Aviation Safety Network https://aviation-safety.net/
729 and Wikipedia. Crashes at takeo or landing, crashes of Boeing 747 Max, crashes
730 of military planes like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Indian_Air_Force_An-32_
731 disappearance, and crashes of small aircraft like https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/

732 calgary/tsb-report-jim-prentice-plane-crash-release-1.4635541 are not included in
733 the table. 29
734 [56] Giant microwave pulse, https://infiniteunknown.net/2015/03/29/3272015-giant-

735 microwave-pulse-seen-across-europe-africa-and-atlantic-on-march-23-into-
736 24th/, https://finding-voices.blogspot.com/2015/03/3272015-giant-microwave-
737 pulse-seen.html, https://br.pinterest.com/pin/513903007455672402/?amp_client_
738 id=CLIENT_ID(_)&mweb_unauth_id=%7B%7Bdefault.session%7D%7D&simplified=true. 32
739 [57] Castelli. V., Galli, P., Camassi, R., Caraciolo, C., The 1561 Earthquake(s) in Southern Italy:
740 New Insights into a Complex Seismic Sequence, 2008, Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 12,
741 pp. 1054-1077. 32
742 [58] NOAA, aa index https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/indices/image/aassn07.jpg,

743 https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/indices/aastar.html 34, 36
744 [59] Minle, D., Notices on Earthquake shocks felt in Great Britain, Edinburgh New Philo-
745 sophical Journal, April - October 1841, Vol. XXXI, relevant pages 300 -301, https:
746 //ia801706.us.archive.org/13/items/sim_the-edinburgh-new-philosophical-
747 journal_april-october-1841_31/sim_the-edinburgh-new-philosophical-journal_
748 april-october-1841_31.pdf https://www.pascalbonenfant.com/18c/geography/
749 earthquakes.html, https://books.google.com.ph/books?id=21sEAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA300&
750 lpg=PA300&dq=november+1795+volcanic+eruption&source=bl&ots=PcYl11TEHS&sig=
751 4Z2VlE6KvV3jEAQB_Akt0RRmbog&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=november%
752 201795%20volcanic%20eruption&f=false. 36
753 [60] Arienzo, M., Swart, P. K., Broad, K., Clement, A. C., Eisenhauer, A., Kakuk, B., Bahamian
754 speleothems reveal increased aridity associated with Heinrich events, Mineralogical Magazine,
755 2011, 75/3, p. 451; quoted at http://www.livescience.com/30896-stalagmites-climate-
756 clues-blue-holes.html
757 [61] Earthquake lights, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_light 38

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Comparative analysis of unidentied aerial phenomena

November 14, 2022

Keywords. Unidentied areal phenomena.

12 on 2014/7/17. That alone merits serious studies on the nature of UAP.

26 facts described here may fall on deaf ears.

27 2 Comparison of the geographic distribution of UAP sight-

35 and seismic hazards estimated by USGS.

Figure 3: Distribution of bolides in 1988/4/15  2022/7/28 according to [8] on 2022/7/28 is shown

Figure 4: Los Alamos National Laboratory at 35.9o N, 106.3o W,

46 3 Comparison of the temporal frequency of UAP sightings

Figure 7: The top graph shows the modeled speed

Coordinates km speed = km Coordinates km speed = km

Figure 8: The top curve is the 12-month

67 in the record time of 14.6 hours, [13].

79 strengthen the suggestion that at least some UAP, the Earth's

80 magnetic eld, bolides, and seismicity are somehow linked.

82 4 The mid-1930s to early-1950s.

90 speed was accompanied by 1) 28 unusually powerful auroras on 1936/6/10, 1936/6/19, 1937/2/28,

91 1937/4/28, 1937/8/3, 1938/1/25 Fatima geomagnetic storm, 1940/3/25, 1940/4/3, 1941/1/18,

Figure 10: Annual change of the total inten-

Figure 12: Sightings of UAP per day in

92 1941/7/6, 1941/9/18, 1942/6/27, 1943/9/4, 1944/10/15, 1944/12/17, 1946/2/3, 1946/3/24,

93 1946/4/8, 1946/7/26, 1947/3/8, 1947/7/19, 1947/8/27, 1948/3/16, 1949/1/27, 1950/2/21,

94 1950/8/20, 1951/7/2, 1951/9/23, indicative of considerable solar emissions, [18]; 2) an unusual,

102 solar activity was the cause of all of them.

111 powerful earthquakes.

122 shows bolides observed in that area.

129 since 1900, shown in Figure 13, [3].

Figure 13: All 13 magnitude ⩾ 7.1 earthquakes in the 48 con-

138 shown in Figure 4. Figure 3 shows bolides observed in that area.

139 5 The 1970s.

150 earthquake at 39.605o N 117.889o E that killed over 240,000 people.

152 perigee in a seismically active part of Asia.

Figure 14: On the left are all magnitude ⩾

166 may have contributed to the UAP.

Figure 15: On the left are

Figure 16: Nuclear tests in 1975/1/1  1977/9/20, [3].

169  The 1978/10/26 UAP sighting in Clarenville, Canada at 48.16o N, 53.97o W.

175 shown in Figure 16, may have contributed to the UAP.

Figure 17: Magnitude ⩾ 6.0 earthquakes in 1900

184 6 The 1990s and 2000s.

195 cause earthquakes?

214 is not only possible, but expected.

232 same location took place in 1992.

243 tsunami, took close to a quarter-million lives?

244 7 The 2010  2016 period.

251 On 2010/1/30, 2011/3/19, 2012/5/6, 2013/6/23, 2014/8/10, 2015/9/28, 2016/11/14 Full

261 Moon and perigee lasted fewer years.

Full Moon-perigee days between Magnitude ⩾ 7.9 earthquakes

280 sightings in July  August, 2014.

291 plausible explanation.

297 the vast majority of UAP originate in

303 inuence on the frequency of UAP sightings.

310 those of cosmic rays.

322 or lumps of energetic particles from the Belts.

326 atmospheric structures perceived as UAP.

339 of the 2020/4/ maximum.

Comparative analysis of unidentied aerial phenomena

Keywords. Unidentied areal phenomena.

27 2 Comparison of the geographic distribution of UAP sight-

Figure 3: Distribution of bolides in 1988/4/15 2022/7/28 according to [8] on 2022/7/28 is shown

46 3 Comparison of the temporal frequency of UAP sightings

80 magnetic eld, bolides, and seismicity are somehow linked.

82 4 The mid-1930s to early-1950s.

139 5 The 1970s.

Figure 16: Nuclear tests in 1975/1/1 1977/9/20, [3].

169 The 1978/10/26 UAP sighting in Clarenville, Canada at 48.16o N, 53.97o W.

184 6 The 1990s and 2000s.

244 7 The 2010 2016 period.

280 sightings in July August, 2014.

303 inuence on the frequency of UAP sightings.

379 9 UAP and temperature.

391 10 The danger posed by UAP.

473 11 Interconnectedness of terrestrial and celestial phenom-

478 Dene a 148-minute-synchronized New/Full Moon-perigee, or simply synchronized Full Moon-

502 12 Concluding remarks.

532 done to look at possible relationships between dierent natural phenomena.

570 [12] NOAA, Earth's magnetic eld database, https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/

579 [14] Declassied UK Ministry of Defence Report https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/

610 [24] Most powerful solar ares known, https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-

615 [25] Geomagnetic storms for 1996 2022 https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-

616 activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms.html. Top geomagnetic storms for 1900 1995

624 [28] Powerful solar ares in and around 1730. http://www.celebrateboston.com/disasters/