Nama : Rosa Rosdiana

NIM : 19011087
Semester : 6 (angkatan 6)
Program Studi : Manajemen Weekend
Mata Pelajaran : metode kuantitatif dalam pengambilan keputusan

TUGAS regression analisys and forecasting

Question 1 (Regression Analysis)

Students in a management science class have just received their grades on the first test. The
instructor has provided information about the first test grades in some previous classes as well as
the final average for the same students. Some of these grades have been sampled and are as
follows:

1. Develop a regression model that could be used to predict the final average in the course
based on the first test grade.
2. Predict the final average of a student who made an 83 on the first test.
3. Give the values of r and for this model. Interpret the value of in the context of this
problem.

Question 2 (Forcasting)

Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply
are shown in the following table. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. Then
estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year
are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method
do you think is best?
Three different forecasts were developed for the demand for fertilizer. These three forecasts are a
3-year moving average, a weighted moving average, and a trend line. Which one would you use?
Explain your answer.

ANSWER

Question 1
Persamaan garis regresi menggunakan excell
Persamaan dapat ditulis sebagai : final average = 0.73986 ( first test grade) + 18.9892
1. Develop a regresssion model that could be used to predict the final average in the course
based on the first test grade
y = 0.7399x + 18.989

2. Predict the final average of a student who made an 83 on the first test.
y = 0.7399x + 18.989
y = 0.7399(83) + 19.989
y = 80.40

3. Give the values of r and for this model. Interpret the value of in the context of this
problem.
R2 = 0.8474
r = sqrt(0.8474)
r = 0.92054
84% dari varians dalam variabel dependen, rata-rata akhir, dapat diprediksi dari variabel
independen, skor tes pertama.
r disebut koefisien korelasi dan mengukur kekuatan korelasi. Jadi dapat dikatakan bahwa
korelasi antara kelas tes pertama dan rata-rata akhir kuat atau signifikan.

Question 2
1. moving average 3 tahun
2. weighted moving average

3. trend line

Dari analisys di atas, MAD dari trend line adalah yang terendah. Oleh karena itu metode terbaik
untuk memperkirakan adalah menggunakan trend line