Statistical Data Analysis

Write a brief statistical review of the paper “OBSERVATION OF HIGH MASS

DILEPTON PAIRS IN HADRON COLLISIONS AT 400 GeV”, For all
answers which involve calculations, show the details of the calculation. If you
have used spread sheets (Excel, Origin etc) or code (e.g. python) to calculate
your results, please show them as well. The review should cover the following
questions/action items:

1. What is the measured observable and what is the range of interest in this
paper? [2 marks]

2. How is the total background shown in Fig 2 and what background is ex-
pected in the range of interest? [2 marks]

3. Did the authors estimate systematic uncertainties on the selection efficiency

and on the resolution of the observable? If so, how large are they and which
processes do they come from? [5 marks]

4. The authors measured again an already established process to reassure them-

selves and the reader that the experiment is working reliably. Name the
process. Does the measurement agree with the literature value, and if so at
which level? [3 marks]

5. The authors observe an unexpected peak in the high-mass e+ e− pairs. De-

fine H0 and H1 in the context of this analysis. Which p-value do the authors
quote for H0 and how have they estimated it? [6 marks]

6. Assuming that the p-value is correctly estimated, what is the significance (Z-
score) of the peak at 6 GeV? Is it sufficient to claim evidence for/discovery
of a new particle, following the typical requirements in the field? [4 marks]
 7. Fill the observed background-subtracted data in the region between m =
5 GeV and m = 10 GeV in a histogram with a bin width of 0.5 GeV and
include the histogram into your report. In addition to the events tables in the
paper, you should assume 7 events in the bin [5.0, 5.5] from Fig 2. Calculate
the statistical uncertainties on the histogram entries, and add them to the
figure or table them. Bins with 0 entries can be associated an uncertainty of
1. [4 marks]

8. Assume a PDF of the shape f (m) = a/m5 in the region between m = 5 GeV
and m = 10 GeV. Determine the value of the parameter a, for which f (m)
fits the histogrammed data best. Explain how you have determined the
value. [7 marks]

9. Use f (m) to derive your own estimate of the above p-value. Which effect
do you have to observe and how do you do it? [6 marks]

10. With more data collected in the following year, it turned out that the peak
was just a statistical fluctuation. Does this surprise you? Explain your an-
swer. [1 mark]

Useful terminology and physics:

• If an electron and a positron are suspected to be the decay products of a

common mother particle, scientists can use their energy and momenta to
compute the mass of the hypothetical mother particle.

• A mass unit in particle physics is electron-Volts divided by the squared

speed of light (eV/c2 ). c2 is often set to 1, such that eV becomes a mass
unit. 1 GeV = 109 eV, 1 MeV = 106 eV.

• When this paper was published, there was already a well-established parti-
cle with a mass of 3.096 GeV, the J/Ψ meson, which can decay into elec-
trons and positrons.

• Electrons and positrons can also be produced in non-resonant processes

leading to a monotonically decreasing continuous distribution (continuum).
• A hypothetical new particle decaying into an electron-positron pair would
be expected to show as a resonance in the mass spectrun, on top of the
continuum, similar to the resonance from the J/Ψ particle.

• The cross section of a process is a proxy for its production rate.

• Hadrons are particles made of quarks and gluons, e.g. protons or pions, and
sometimes can fake electrons or positrons.