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CH 03
CH 03
1. Whenever we have a sequence of n independent Bernoulli trials each with success probability p, the number of successes is a binomial random variable. Note that a Bernoulli random variable is a binomial random variable with n= 1.Example 3.10 Problem 2 0.00000 %0 coe?Example 3.10 Solution For large values of k, it is not practical to draw the tree. In this case, L = / if and only if there are k—1 successes in the first |—1 trials and there is a success on trial | so that P[L=I] =P |k—1 rejects in |—1 attempts. reject on attempt / (3.15) eee * % ‘The events A and B are independent since the outcome of attempt / is not affected by the previous /— 1 attempts. Note that P[4] is the binomial probability of k—1 successes (i.e., rejects) in /—1 trials so that t-1 A] = Aq — pyri) 1 PLal= (a -p) (3.16) Finally, since P[B] = I k 1 PLO = P[A]P [B] =( 1 Jha =p (3.17) L is an example of a Pascal random variableDe n 3.7 Pascal (k,p) Random Variable X is a Pascal (k,p) random variable if the PMF of X has the form P(o) = (Fj) - pyr where 0
1.
In general, the number of Bemoulli trials that take place until one of the two
outcomes is observed & times is a Pascal random variable, For a Pascal (kp)
random variable X, Py(z) is nonzero only for =k, k-+1,...-Example 3.11
In an experiment with equiprobable outcomes, the random variable N
has the range Sy = {k,k+1,k+2,--- ,l}, where k and J are integers
with k <1. The range contains /—k-+ 1 numbers, each with probability
1/(l—k+1). Therefore, the PMF of N is
Pr = {ered n=kk+1,k+2,. (18)
otherwise
N is an example of a discrete uniform random variable.Discrete Uniform (k,/) Random
Definition 3.8 Variable
X is a discrete uniform (k,l) random variable if the PMF of X has the
form
Py(e) = (VCH RFD BH Bh Rt LEE.
“elo otherwise
where the parameters k and | are integers such that k < l.Example 3.12
Roll a fair die. The random variable N is the number of spots on the side
facing up. Therefore, N is a discrete uniform (1,6) random variable with
PMF
0.2
P(r) 1/6 n=1,2,3,4,5,6,
0 otherwise.
Py(n) = {
(3.19)Def
jon 3.9 Poisson (a) Random Variable
X is a Poisson (a) random variable if the PMF of X has the form
games P _ foren/x! 2 =0,1,2,...,
volte x (@) 0 otherwise,
where the parameter a is in the rangea>0.
% flee 3-8
The probability model of a Poisson random variable describes phenomena that
occur randomly in time. While the time of each occurrence is completely random,
there is a known average number of occurrences per unit time. The Poisson model
is used widely in many fields. For example, the arrival of information requests at
a World Wide Web server, the initiation of telephone calls, and the emission of
particles from a radioactive source are often modeled as Poisson random variables.
a Poisson random variable, we will call the occurrence of the phe-
nomenon of interest an arrival. A Poisson model often specifies an average rate,
()) arrivals per second, and time interval, T seconds. In this time interval, the
number of arrivals X has a Poisson PMF with «= XT.
° :
oon ONE Aor eo obsExample 3.13 Problem
The number of hits at a website in any time interval is a Poisson random
variable. A particular site has on average(A)= 2 hits per second. What
is the probability that there are no hits injan interval of 0.25 seconds?
What is the probability that there are no more than two hits in an interval
of one second? M :
ly,
Wak tele
aExample 3.13 Solution
In an interval of 0.25 seconds, the number of hits H is a Poisson random variable with
T = (2 hits/s) x (0.25 s) =0.5 hits. The PMF of 1 is
e-08 =
Pu(h) {ose /h! h=0,1,2
otherwise.
0 | I =
0 2
The probability of no hits is
P [H = 0] = Px(0) = (0.5)%°9/0! = 0.607. (3.20)
In an interval of 1 second, a = \T = (2 hits/s) x (1 s) = 2 hits. Letting J) denote the
number of hits in one second, the PMF of JJ is
4 h
0.2
P,
x3) my! Qie-2/j1 7 =0,1,2,...
0.1 rOD= Vo otherwise
0
02468 4
[Continued]Example 3.13 Solution (Continued 2)
To find the probability of no more than two hits, we note that
{J <2} ={J=O0}U{J =1pu{sJ=2} (3.21)
is the union of three mutually exclusive events. Therefore,
P[J <2] =P[J=0]+P[J=1]+P[J =2]
= P;(0) + Pj(1) + Pj(2)
= e7? + 24¢77/1! + 2777/2! = 0.677. (3.22)Example 3.14
Calls arrive at random times at a telephone switching office with an
average of \ = 0.25 calls/second. The PMF of the number of calls that
arrive in a T = 2-second interval is the Poisson (0.5) random variable
with PMF
1
PXG)
5 (0.5)%e~9-5/j! f= 0,1,...,
PIG) = :
oO otherwise.
0 2 4 j
Note that we obtain the same PMF if we define the arrival rate as A =
60-0.25 = 15 calls per minute and derive the PMF of the number of calls
that arrive in 2/60 = 1/30 minutes.Section 3.4
Cumulative Distribution Function
(CDF)Cumulative Distribution
ion 3.10 Function (CDF)
Defi
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of random variable X is
Fy (a) =P[X 2, Fy(2!) > Py(e). powiny Potion
(c) For w; € Sx and e, an arbitrarily small positive number, fina
Fx(ei) — Fei = Px). hee
(d) Fx(#) = F(a) for all a such that a; a,
Fx (6) — Fx(a) =P [a