Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(Kotak) Economy, July 01, 2022
(Kotak) Economy, July 01, 2022
Economy
Public Finance JULY 01, 2022
UPDATE
BSE-30: 52,908
Significant gains possible for the government from duties/cess on petroleum products
The central government announced special additional excise duty and cess of: (1) Rs23,250/ton QUICK NUMBERS
on domestic production of petroleum crude, and (2) Rs6/liter and Rs13/liter on exports of petrol
and diesel, respectively along with Rs6/liter on exports of ATF. Unconfirmed media reports Duty/cess on
suggest that the excise duty will also be applicable on SEZs/EOUs. On an annualized basis, we petroleum crude
estimate the government to garner around Rs1.3 tn (Rs660 bn each from petroleum crude and products likely
production and exports of petrol, diesel, and ATF) (see Exhibit 1). The duties will be reviewed on to garner Rs990 bn
a fortnightly basis. However, if the duties/cess continues for the rest of the year, the government
could garner around Rs990 bn (based on FY2022 data on volumes of production and exports). May GST at Rs1.4 tn
The government does not expect any implication of these measures on prices of fuel products.
The government also increased the customs duty on gold imports to 15% from 10.75%. We do 2MFY23 GFD at
not factor in lower gold imports yet. 12.3% of FY2023BE
Center’s gross tax revenue in 2MFY23 was at 14.6% of FY2023BE (growth of 29%) while net
tax revenues was at 15.9% of FY2023BE (growth of 32%). Direct tax collection was at 13.8%
and indirect tax collection was at 15.5% of FY2023BE driven by income tax and GST collections.
Total expenditure in 2MFY23 was at 14.8% of FY2023BE (growth of 23%) with revenue
expenditure growth of 15% and capital expenditure growth of 70%. Most growth rates will be
distorted due to the impact of the second Covid wave in 1QFY22. GFD in 2MFY23 was at 12.3% Suvodeep Rakshit
of FY2023BE (see Exhibit 4). suvodeep.rakshit@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0898
Fiscal remains on a knife-edge; lower our FY2023E GFD/GDP estimate to 6.5% Upasna Bhardwaj
upasna.bhardwaj@kotak.com
The levy of duty/cess on crude production and exports of petrol, diesel, and ATF will help offset Mumbai: +91-22-6166-0531
the losses from excise duty cuts in petrol and diesel. Assuming that the duty/cess continue for
Anurag Balajee
rest of FY2023E, we estimate excise duty collection at Rs3.8 tn compared to our earlier estimate anurag.b@kotak.com
of Rs2.8 tn. The proceeds will accrue entirely to the center. In our last revision (report titled Two
to tango, May 23), we had factored in additional subsidies and excise duty losses to pencil in
GFD/GDP at 6.8% (without any change in other expenditures). With the recent measures, we
revise down our GFD/GDP estimate to 6.5% and remove the need for higher dated securities
borrowings (see Exhibits 5-6).
Exhibit 1: Central government could garner around Rs990 bn from duty/cess on crude production and products' exports
Estimated impact of announced duty/cess on government's revenues, March fiscal year-ends
Notes:
(a) Estimated excise duty collections are assuming FY2022 exports/production levels.
(b) We assume duties sustain for the rest of the year.
Compensation
CGST SGST IGST IGST (imports) cess Total GST
FY2018 1,183 1,711 3,692 1,831 643 7,230
FY2019 2,024 2,788 5,987 2,905 974 11,774
FY2020 2,274 3,092 5,867 2,673 987 12,221
Mar-20 51 59 323
Apr-20 103 129 620
May-20 190 240 403 157 77 909
Jun-20 161 214 426 203 73 875
Jul-20 159 211 423 192 72 864
Aug-20 177 231 475 224 71 955
Sep-20 192 254 525 234 80 1,052
O ct-20 192 255 520 221 82 1,050
Nov-20 214 278 574 271 86 1,152
Dec-20 219 290 603 274 86 1,198
Jan-21 211 273 553 244 95 1,131
Feb-21 230 293 628 311 88 1,239
FY2021 2,099 2,728 5,130 2,330 811 11,368
Mar-21 278 356 685 296 94 1,414
Apr-21 176 227 532 260 93 1,027
May-21 164 204 491 258 69 928
Jun-21 222 285 579 279 78 1,164
Jul-21 205 266 562 269 86 1,120
Aug-21 206 268 609 296 88 1,170
Sep-21 239 304 674 330 88 1,301
O ct-21 240 311 668 322 96 1,315
Nov-21 226 287 692 375 94 1,298
Dec-21 247 320 720 352 97 1,384
Jan-22 244 308 675 338 103 1,330
Feb-22 258 324 745 391 94 1,421
FY2022 2,705 3,460 7,631 3,765 1,080 14,873
Mar-22 332 418 819 367 106 1,675
Apr-22 250 320 733 375 105 1,409
May-22 253 324 759 401 110 1,446
Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22
Monthly collections (PIB press releases)
Center 326 357 503 556 494 512 513 481 719 508 656 666 530 684
Center GST (CGST) 176 164 222 205 206 239 240 226 247 244 258 332 250 253
Centre's share of IGST (C-IGST) 150 193 281 350 288 273 273 256 472 263 398 334 279 431
States 343 373 526 577 509 528 538 498 737 527 674 688 551 701
States' GST (SGST) 227 204 285 266 268 304 311 287 320 308 324 418 320 324
States' share of IGST (S-IGST) 117 169 241 311 241 224 227 211 417 219 350 270 231 377
Unallocated IGST 265 129 57 (99) 80 177 169 225 (169) 192 (4) 216 223 (49)
Compensation cess 93 69 78 86 88 85 96 94 97 103 94 106 105 110
Total 1,027 928 1,164 1,120 1,170 1,301 1,315 1,298 1,384 1,330 1,421 1,675 1,409 1,446
Monthly collections (CGA releases)
Center 436 401 442 371 467 575 565 609 417 561 489 754 546 509
- CGST 283 337 479 533 474 485 492 462 697 482 633 641 499 658
- CGST refund (estimated) 43 20 24 22 20 26 20 19 22 26 23 25 31 26
- Unallocated IGST 153 64 (37) (162) (6) 90 72 146 (279) 79 (145) 113 47 (149)
- IGST refund (estimated) 112 65 94 63 86 87 96 79 110 113 141 102 176 100
State (estimated) 300 353 503 555 489 502 518 478 715 501 651 663 520 675
Compensation cess 89 66 75 85 85 82 94 91 95 101 91 104 102 108
Total 825 820 1,020 1,011 1,041 1,159 1,177 1,178 1,227 1,162 1,230 1,521 1,169 1,292
FYTD collections (post refunds) FY2022
Center 1,039 1,440 1,881 2,253 2,720 3,295 3,860 4,468 4,886 5,447 5,935 754 1,301 1,809
- CGST 838 1,174 1,653 2,187 2,661 3,146 3,638 4,101 4,797 5,279 5,912 641 1,140 1,797
- Unallocated IGST 201 265 228 66 59 149 222 368 89 168 23 113 161 12
States (estimated) 868 1,221 1,724 2,279 2,768 3,270 3,787 4,266 4,980 5,481 6,132 663 1,183 1,858
Compensation cess 181 246 322 406 491 574 668 759 854 955 1,046 104 206 315
Total 2,088 2,907 3,927 4,938 5,979 7,138 8,315 9,494 10,720 11,883 13,113 1,521 2,690 3,982
FY2023BE
Center 6,600
- CGST 6,600
- Unallocated IGST —
States 7,492
Compensation cess 1,200
Total 15,292
Required run rate to meet FY2023BE
Center 531 530 532
- CGST 542 546 534
- Unallocated IGST (10) (16) (1)
State 621 631 626
Compensation cess 100 99 98
Total 1,252 1,260 1,257
FYTD run rate
Center 754 650 603
- CGST 641 570 599
- Unallocated IGST 113 80 4
States 663 592 619
Compensation cess 104 103 105
Total 1,521 1,345 1,327
Exhibit 4: Center's net tax revenues at 16% and expenditure at 15% of FY2023BE in 2MFY23
Monthly fiscal details of the central government, March fiscal year-ends (Rs bn)
"Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which
the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views
about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Suvodeep Rakshit, Upasna Bhardwaj
and Anurag Balajee."
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which
Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has provided
50%
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not
strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.