PM Module3 ProjectSchedulingandRM 21-23

Title / Author: Project Management/Anand Dhutraj Page No.
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Project Management
Prof. Anand Dhutraj

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Agenda
• Project Scheduling and Risk Management
o Gantt Chart
o Splitting and Multitasking
o PERT Analysis
o Risk Management
Title / Author: Project Management/Anand Dhutraj Page No. 3

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Project Scheduling
• Project schedule is the tool that communicates what work needs to be
performed, which resources of the organization will perform the work and the
timeframes in which that work needs to be performed.
• The project schedule should reflect all the work associated with delivering project
on time.
• Scheduling is carried out in advance of the commencing the project and involves:
1. Identifying tasks that need to be carried out.
2. Estimating how long they will take
3. Allocating resources (mainly personnel) and
4. Scheduling when tasks will occur

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Features of Project Scheduling

1. Expert Knowledge
2. Discipline
3. Efficiency
4. Complete
5. Full Term Schedule
6. Should meet the contractual requirements

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Tools & techniques of Project Scheduling

1. Bar / Gantt Chart
2. Line of Balance ( LOB)
3. Linear Programming
4. Splitting and Multitasking
5. Network Analysis

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Types of Project Scheduling

1. Master Scheduling
2. Parts Scheduling
3. Machine Loading Schedule

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Gantt Chart
Gantt charts provide a standard format for displaying project schedule information by
listing project activities and their corresponding start and finish dates in a calendar format
Purpose
• To illustrate the relationship between project activities & time.
• To show the multiple project activities on one chart
• To provide a simple & easy method to understand representation of project scheduling

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Gantt Charts – Advantages and Disadvantages

Advantages
• Easy to construct
• Gives earliest completion date.
• Provides a schedule of earliest possible start and finish times of activities.
Disadvantages
• Gives only one possible schedule (earliest).
• Does not show whether the project is behind schedule.
• Does not demonstrate the effects of delays in any one activity on the
start of another activity, thus on the project completion time.
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Types of Gantt Charts

• Workload Charts: They are used to illustrate workload levels for equipment, work
centers or departments. The vertical axis of the chart represents the machines or any
other facilities used to manufacture or process the job orders. The horizontal axis
represents the time taken.
Week Number
Work Center
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
P A B
Q C A
R B C A
S C B
Time period (weeks)

Idle time Assigned task to work center

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Types of Gantt Charts

• Scheduling Charts: These charts depict the progress of the activities in a project. They
are useful for tracking project.
Week Number
Activity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
A
B
C
D
Time period (weeks)

Scheduled time Actual Progress

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Symbols used in Gantt Chart
Gantt Chart Symbols

Symbol Meaning
[ Start of an activity
] End of an activity
[-] Actual progress of the activity
V Point in time where the project is now

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Creating a Gantt Chart

There are two methods to creating a Gantt Chart (Maylor, 2005).
1. Using a Forward Schedule: starting with the list of activities and a given start
date follow them forwards in time until you hit given deadline.
2. Using a Backward Schedule: look at the deadline, from that date work in the
logical list of activities.
Both of these methods allow you to ensure that all necessary activities can possibly
be completed within the given project time frame.

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Steps to Creating a Gantt Chart

1. Determine Project start date and deadline.
2. Gather all information surrounding the list of activities within a project – the Work
Breakdown Structure may be useful for this.
3. Determine how long each activity will take
4. Evaluate what activities are dependant on others
5. Create Graph shell including the timeline and list of activities.
6. Using either Forward Scheduling or Backward Scheduling, begin to add
bars ensuring to include dependencies and the full duration for each activity.

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Example
Consider the following:.

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Example

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Example

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Gantt Chart example

Create a Gantt chart based on the activities listed in the table for the project with
the time period mentioned in weeks.

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Gantt Chart example

Create a Gantt chart based on the activities listed in the table for the project with
the time period mentioned in weeks.

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Splitting / Multitasking
• Splitting/Multitasking
• A scheduling technique for creating a better project schedule and/or increase
resource utilization.
• Involves interrupting work on an activity to employ the resource on
another activity, then returning the resource to finish the interrupted
work.
• Is feasible when startup and shutdown costs are low.
• Is considered the major reason why projects fail to meet schedule.

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Splitting Activities

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Benefits Of Scheduling Resources

• Leaves time for consideration of reasonable alternatives:
• Cost-time tradeoffs
• Changes in priorities
• Provides information for time-phased work package budgets to assess:
• Impact of unforeseen events
• Amount of flexibility in available resources

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Multiproject Resource Schedules

Multiproject Scheduling Problems
1. Overall project slippage
• Delay on one project create delays for other projects.
2. Inefficient resource application
• The peaks and valleys of resource demands create scheduling problems and delays
for projects.
3. Resource bottlenecks
• Shortages of critical resources required for multiple projects cause delays and
schedule extensions.

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Multiproject Resource Schedules (Cont’d)

Managing Multiproject Scheduling:
• Create project offices or departments to oversee the scheduling of resources
across projects.
• Use a project priority queuing system: first come, first served for resources.
• Centralize project management: treat all projects as a part of a “megaproject.”
• Outsource projects to reduce the number
of projects handled internally.

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PERT - Project Evaluation Review Technique

• PERT is a network analysis technique used to estimate project duration when
there is a high degree of uncertainty about the individual activity duration
estimates
• Assumes each activity duration has a range that statistically follows a beta
distribution.
• Uses three time estimates for each activity: optimistic, pessimistic, and a most
likely time to represent activity durations.
• Knowing the weighted average and variances for each activity allows the project
planner to compute the probability of meeting different project durations

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Activity And Project Frequency Distributions
• The beta distribution is generally used to describe the inherent variability in time estimates
• The probabilistic approach involves three time estimates:
• The length of time required under optimal conditions
o Optimistic time, (a)
• The length of time required under normal conditions
• Most likely time, (m)
• The length of time required under the worst conditions
• Pessimistic time, (b)

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Activity Time Calculations

The weighted average activity time is computed by the following formula:

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Activity Time Calculations

The standard deviation 𝜎𝑡 of the completion time of an activity is calculated as follows:
𝑏−𝑎
𝜎𝑡 =
6
From this, variance is calculated as follows:
𝑏−𝑎 2
𝜎𝑡2 =
6
The Project completion time T follows a normal distribution with,
Mean = E(T) = Sum of te for the activities on critical path and standard deviation
𝑏−𝑎 2
SD = √ Sum of Var of all the activities on critical path
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Probability calculations on PERT network

• The expected time (weighted average) gives the average completion time of the
project. In other words there is 50% probability (chance) that the project may be
completed within the E(T) amount of time.
• PERT is probabilistic so we can only estimate the duration of project.
• Probability values provide chance values of completing project within the stated
time.

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Probability calculations on PERT network

Central Limit Theorem:
For the given project the time duration Te follows a normal distribution with,
• Mean (Te) = µ = E (Te) = Sum of all the expected time of the activities on the critical path
• And Var (Te) = 𝜎2(t) =Sum of variances of these activities
T−E T
Therefore, 𝑍= N(0,1)
V T
Z is called standard normal variable s.n.v., where probabilities of Z are calculated from the
normal area table.

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Steps in PERT
1. Identify the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic times for each activity.
2. Calculate the Activity times using formula:
3. Draw the PERT Network
4. Identify the Critical Path by calculating EST, EFT, LST and LFT. Find total project
completion time using duration of critical path.
𝑏−𝑎 2
5. Calculate variance of each activity 𝜎𝑡2 =
6
6. Calculate variance of all the activities on the critical path.
7. Calculate standard deviation of critical path using the formula
Standard deviation (𝜎) = √ (sum of variance of critical activities)

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Steps in PERT
8. Calculate the value of z using these values
𝑋 − 𝑇𝑒
𝑧=
𝜎
𝐷𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒 −𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
i.e. 𝑧 = √ Variance
9. Calculate probability of the project completion for due date from the value of z and the
“Normal probability table”

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Comparison between PERT and CPM

BASIS PERT CPM
Meaning PERT is a project management technique, used to CPM is a statistical technique of project
manage uncertain activities of a project. management that manages well defined activities of
a project.
What is it? A technique of planning and control of time. A method to control cost and time.
Orientation Event-oriented Activity-oriented
Evolution Evolved as Research & Development project Evolved as Construction project
Model Probabilistic Model Deterministic Model
Focuses on Time Time-cost trade-off
Estimates Three time estimates One time estimate
Appropriate for High precision time estimate Reasonable time estimate
Management of Unpredictable Activities Predictable activities
Nature of jobs Non-repetitive nature Repetitive nature
Suitable for Research and Development Project Non-research projects like civil construction, ship
building etc.
Crashing concept Not Applicable Applicable

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Example 1
The details of 9 activities of a project are as follows, construct the network diagram.:
• Determine various paths and critical path
• Calculate probability of completion of project in 38 days.
• Calculate project duration if the probability of completion of project is 94.5%
• Calculate project duration if the probability of completion of project is 34.5%
Time in days
Activity
Optimistic (a) Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b)
1-2 2 5 14
1-6 2 5 8
2-3 5 11 29
2-4 1 4 7
3-5 5 11 17
4-5 2 5 14
6-7 3 9 27
5-8 2 2 8
7-8 7 13 31

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Example 1- Solution
Time in days 𝑏−𝑎 2

Activity
𝜎𝑡2 =
6
1-2 2 5 14 6 4
1-6 2 5 8 5 1
2-3 5 11 29 13 16
2-4 1 4 7 4 1
3-5 5 11 17 11 4
4-5 2 5 14 6 4
6-7 3 9 27 11 16
5-8 2 2 8 3 1
7-8 7 13 31 15 16

Paths Duration
1-2-3-5-8 33
1-2-4-5-8 19 NLDIMSR
1-6-7-8 31
Example 1- Solution Standard deviation =Sqrt(Sum of variances of critical activities)=5
X=38 days Te = 33 days has probability of 0.5

Sigma = 5
z= (38-33)/5
z=1
Probability =0.5 +0.3413=0.8413
Given, Probability = 0.945 Given, Probability = 0.345

Now, Probability =0.945=0.5 + 0.445 Now, Probability =0.345=0.5 - 0.155
z=1.6 z= - 0.4
1.6=(X-33)/5 -0.4=(X-33)/5
1.6*5=X-33 -0.4*5=X-33
X=41 days X=31 days
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Example 2
The details of various activities of a project are given below:
Time in days
Activity Predecessor
to tm tp
A - 1 3 7
B - 1 2 4
C A 2 4 8
D A 2 5 11
E B 3 6 12
F C,D 3 7 15
G D,E 1 4 10
H F,G 2 6 14
i. Draw the network diagram and find critical path & critical time
ii. What will be the probability of completing project in 20 days?
iii. Find Total float, Free Float, Independent Float & Interference float for all activities.

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Example 2 – Solution
8.83, 8.83
3.33, 3.33
Time in days 𝑏−𝑎 2
Activity Predecessor 𝜎𝑡2 = 16.5, 16.5 23.17, 23.17
6
to tm tp
A - 1 3 7 3.33 1.00
B - 1 2 4 2.17 0.25 0, 0
C A 2 4 8 4.33 1.00
D A 2 5 11 5.50 2.25
E B 3 6 12 6.50 2.25
8.83, 8.83
F C,D 3 7 15 7.67 4.00
G D,E 1 4 10 4.50 2.25
2.17, 2.33
H F,G 2 6 14 6.67 4.00

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Paths Duration
1-2-4-6-7 (A-C-F-H) 22
1-2-5-6-7 (A-D-G-H) 20
1-2-5-4-6-7 (A-D-F-H) 23.17
1-3-5-6-7 (B-E-G-H) 19.83
Standard deviation=Sqrt(Sum of variances of critical activities)= 3.354
Te=
X=20
23.17
𝜎 = 3.354
z=(20-23.17)/3.354
-0.95
Probability = 0.5 -0.3289

0, 0
0.1711

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2.17, 2.33
Free Inter
Head Slack Tail Slack Total Float Ind Float
Float Float
LST-EST or
Activity Duration EST EFT LST LFT TF-HS FF-TS HS
LFT - EFT
A 3.33 0 3.33 0.00 3.33 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
B 2.17 0 2.17 0.16 2.33 0.16 0 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.16
C 4.33 3.33 7.66 4.50 8.83 0 0 1.17 1.17 1.17 0
D 5.50 3.33 8.83 3.33 8.83 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
E 6.50 2.17 8.67 2.33 8.83 0 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.00 0
F 7.67 8.83 16.50 8.83 16.5 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
G 4.50 8.83 13.33 12.00 16.5 0 0 3.17 3.17 3.17 0
H 6.67 16.5 23.17 16.50 23.17 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

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Example 3
A project consisting of 7 activities has the following information (All duration are in weeks):
Time in weeks
Activity
1-2 1 1 7
1-3 1 4 7
1-4 2 2 8
2-5 1 1 1
3-5 2 5 14
4-6 2 5 8
5-6 3 6 15
i. Draw the network diagram and find critical path & critical time
ii. What will be the probability that the project will be extended to 20 weeks?
iii. Find Total float, Free Float, Independent Float & Interference float for all activities.

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Time in weeks 𝑏−𝑎 2

Activity 𝜎𝑡2 =
Optimistic (a) Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b) 6
1-2 1 1 7 2 1
1-3 1 4 7 4 1
1-4 2 2 8 3 1
2-5 1 1 1 1 0
3-5 2 5 14 6 4
4-6 2 5 8 5 1
5-6 3 6 15 7 4

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Paths Duration
1-2-5-6 10
1-3-5-6 17
1-4-6 8
Standard deviation=Sqrt(Sum of variances of critical activities)= 3
X=20 Te=17
sigma=3
z=(20-17)/3
1.00
Probability = 0.5
+0.3413
0.8413

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Risk Management Process

• Risk
− Uncertain or chance events that planning can not overcome or control.
• Risk Management
− A proactive attempt to recognize and manage internal events and external threats
that affect the likelihood of a project’s success.
• What can go wrong (risk event).
• How to minimize the risk event’s impact (consequences).
• What can be done before an event occurs (anticipation).
• What to do when an event occurs (contingency plans).

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Types of Risks
• Project specific risk
• Competitive risk
• Industry specific risk
• Technology risk
• Legal risk
• Commodity risk
• International Risk
• Market Risk

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The Risk Management Process

• Risk identification
• Identify project, product and business risks;
• Quantification / Assessment of risk
• Quantify / Assess risks in terms of severity of impact, likelihood and controllability
• Risk priority
• Rank order;
• Risk response planning
• Draw up plans to avoid or minimize the effects of the risk;
• Risk monitoring
• Monitor the risks throughout the project;

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The Risk Event Graph

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Risk Management’s Benefits

• A proactive rather than reactive approach.
• Reduces surprises and negative consequences.
• Prepares the project manager to take advantage
of appropriate risks.
• Provides better control over the future.
• Improves chances of reaching project performance objectives within budget
and on time.

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The Risk
Management
Process

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Managing Risk
• Step 1: Risk Identification
• Generate a list of possible risks through brainstorming, problem
identification and risk profiling.
• Macro risks first, then specific events
• Step 2: Risk Assessment
• Scenario analysis for event probability and impact
• Risk assessment matrix
• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
• Probability analysis
• Decision trees, NPV, and PERT
• Semiquantitative scenario analysis

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The Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)

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Partial Risk Profile For Product Development Project

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Defined Conditions For Impact Scales Of A Risk On Major

Project Objectives (Examples For Negative Impacts Only)

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Risk Assessment Form

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RISK SEVERITY MATRIX

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Impact × Probability × Detection = Risk Value
4 User Interface
Backlash problems
Red zone (major risk)
Likelihood
Yellow zone (moderate risk)

3 Green zone (minor risk)
System
2 freezing
Hardware
1
malfunc-
tioning
1 2 3 4 5
Impact
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Managing Risk (Cont’d)

• Step 3: Risk Response Development
• Mitigating Risk
• Reducing the likelihood an adverse event will occur.
• Reducing impact of adverse event.
• Avoiding Risk
• Changing the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition.
• Transferring Risk
• Paying a premium to pass the risk to another party.
• Requiring Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) provisions.
• Retaining Risk
• Making a conscious decision to accept the risk.

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Contingency Planning
• Contingency Plan
• An alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event actually
occurs.
• A plan of actions that will reduce or mitigate the negative impact
(consequences) of a risk event.
• Risks of Not Having a Contingency Plan
• Having no plan may slow managerial response.
• Decisions made under pressure can be potentially dangerous and costly.

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Risk Response Matrix

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Risk And Contingency Planning

• Technical Risks
• Backup strategies if chosen technology fails.
• Assessing whether technical uncertainties
can be resolved.
• Schedule Risks
• Use of slack increases the risk of a late project finish.
• Imposed duration dates (absolute project finish date)
• Compression of project schedules due to a shortened project duration date.

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Risk And Contingency Planning (Cont’d)

• Costs Risks
• Time/cost dependency links: costs increase when problems take longer to
solve than expected.
• Price protection risks (a rise in input costs) increase if the duration of a
project is increased.
• Funding Risks
• Changes in the supply of funds for the project can dramatically affect the
likelihood of implementation or successful completion of a project.

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Opportunity Management Tactics

• Exploit
• Seeking to eliminate the uncertainty associated with an opportunity to ensure that it definitely
happens.
• Share
• Allocating some or all of the ownership of an opportunity to another party who is best able to
capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project.
• Enhance
• Taking action to increase the probability and/or the positive impact of an opportunity.
• Accept
• Being willing to take advantage of an opportunity if it occurs, but not taking action to pursue it.

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Contingency Funding And
Time Buffers
• Contingency Funds
• Funds to cover project risks—identified and unknown.
• Size of funds reflects overall risk of a project
• Budget reserves
• Are linked to the identified risks of specific work packages.
• Management reserves
• Are large funds to be used to cover major unforeseen risks (e.g., change in project
scope) of the total project.
• Time Buffers
• Amounts of time used to compensate for unplanned delays in the project schedule.
• Severe risk, merge, noncritical, and scarce resource activities

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Contingency Fund Estimate ($000s)

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Managing Risk (Cont’d)

• Step 4: Risk Response Control
• Risk control
• Execution of the risk response strategy
• Monitoring of triggering events
• Initiating contingency plans
• Watching for new risks
• Establishing a Change Management System
• Monitoring, tracking, and reporting risk
• Fostering an open organization environment
• Repeating risk identification/assessment exercises
• Assigning and documenting responsibility for managing risk
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Change Management Control

• Sources of Change
• Project scope changes
• Implementation of contingency plans
• Improvement changes

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Change Control System Process

1. Identify proposed changes.
2. List expected effects of proposed changes
on schedule and budget.
3. Review, evaluate, and approve or disapprove
of changes formally.
4. Negotiate and resolve conflicts of change, condition, and cost.
5. Communicate changes to parties affected.
6. Assign responsibility for implementing change.
7. Adjust master schedule and budget.
8. Track all changes that are to be implemented

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The Change
Control Process

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Benefits Of A Change Control System

1. Inconsequential changes are discouraged by the formal process.
2. Costs of changes are maintained in a log.
3. Integrity of the WBS and performance measures is maintained.
4. Allocation and use of budget and management reserve funds are tracked.
5. Responsibility for implementation is clarified.
6. Effect of changes is visible to all parties involved.
7. Implementation of change is monitored.
8. Scope changes will be quickly reflected in baseline and performance measures.

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Thank you!

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Title / Author: Project Management/Anand Dhutraj Page No.

Prof. Anand Dhutraj

Title / Author: Project Management/Anand Dhutraj Page No. 3

Title / Author: Project Management/Anand Dhutraj Page No. 4

Features of Project Scheduling

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Tools & techniques of Project Scheduling

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Types of Project Scheduling

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Gantt Charts – Advantages and Disadvantages

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Types of Gantt Charts

Time period (weeks)

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Types of Gantt Charts

Time period (weeks)

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Symbols used in Gantt Chart

Gantt Chart Symbols

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Creating a Gantt Chart

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Steps to Creating a Gantt Chart

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Gantt Chart example

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Gantt Chart example

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Benefits Of Scheduling Resources

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Multiproject Resource Schedules

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Multiproject Resource Schedules (Cont’d)

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PERT - Project Evaluation Review Technique

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Activity And Project Frequency Distributions

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Activity Time Calculations

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Activity Time Calculations

Probability calculations on PERT network

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Probability calculations on PERT network

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Comparison between PERT and CPM

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Time in days 𝑏−𝑎 2

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Example 1- Solution Standard deviation =Sqrt(Sum of variances of critical activities)=5

X=38 days Te = 33 days has probability of 0.5

Given, Probability = 0.945 Given, Probability = 0.345

Title / Author: Project Management/Anand Dhutraj Page No. 37