Name: Fakhara Gillani

Research Paper
Submitted to: Dr Khurram
June 15th, 2022
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Topic: Emergence of LAWS; India’s Avenues for Cooperation

and Competition with US and China

Abstract
Advent new technologies have always changed the course of a nation’s existing course. Most of
the time with new inventions, new standards of power, new contours of status quo and new
position of states has emerged.1 Similarly, fourth industrial revolution has opened immense
possibilities of how deeply technology can penetrate into the everyday lives of people. From AI
installed home appliances to autonomous weapons system, the very trajectory of technological
advancement can be gauged. The instrumentality of emerging technologies in how they are going
to direct the relationship of states and their behavior towards each other cannot be overlooked.
The day when technology and the possibility of it becoming a key driver of International
Relations has been dawned. Therefore, it’s a high time to bring in this aspect into the research
corridors and forecast any avenues that exist for cooperation or competition between states.

Introduction:

The Chief of Army Staff (COAS), MM Naravane, in early March 2020, quite emphatically
stated: “Icons of the 20th-century warfare like main battle tanks and fighter aircraft are on their
way out”. He also went on to maintain that “…the battle winning factor in future combat may not
be numerical equivalence but technological superiority. Brick and mortar military structures and
capacities will perhaps matter less; technological capacities in enabling domains like AI
(artificial intelligence) and cyber will decisively tip the military balance…” 2. In the light of
aforementioned statement, it can be inferred that it is on to acquiring advanced AI driven military
weapon systems to stay within the parameters of “a powerful state”. Also, that India is also the
proponent of the idea of development of Lethal Autonomous Weapons in particular. Lethal
autonomous weapons systems, often also addressed as the “slaughter-bots” or “killer robots” are
an addition to the realm of are weapon systems that instrumentalize artificial intelligence (AI) for

1
Dr., Khurram Iqbal. "Sikh Nationalism." Lecture, Foreign Policy of India, National Defense University , Islamabad,
March 12, 2022.

2
KARTIK, BOMMAKANTI. "The Indian Army: Emerging technologies and weapons platforms." Observer Research
Foundation. Last modified January 12, 2022.
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identification, selection and killing the desired targets without interference of human beings.
They are relatively independent in decision making. E.g., military drones are not equipped with
the capability of making autonomous decisions. On the contrary LAWS’s decision of identifying
and launching a strike is truly algorithm driven.3 The scope of destruction that can be caused and
the level of power a state can achieve with the addition of this form of military technology into
their arsenal collection has come under the debate lately. Out of that discussion three blocks
have emerged. Developing countries counting Pakistan and Cuba has opted for a preventive
prohibition. Developed countries like US and China has refused to endorse a ban. India
interestingly has opted a wait and watch policy 4. The middle ground that it took is likely to fall
into either side of the fence depending upon its security needs. The research paper aims to take
reflect upon how India’s acquisition of LAWS is likely to shape the way it behaves with two
major powers, i.e., US and China.

Research Questions:

The paper aims to take critical and deep insight into the following research questions.

 How technological advancement alters the patterns of relationship among nations?

 How is the advent of LAWS, going to impact India relationship with US and China?
 What are the Challenges and opportunities for India in these prospects?

Research Hypothesis:

India, US, and China are in a relationship spiral. Any action by India is likely to
stir a strong reaction from both US and China. India’s stance on development of
LAWS is going to open new horizons of corporation as well as competition amid
the three competing powers.

3
Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems." Future of Life Institute. Last modified June 13, 2020.

4
"Background on LAWS in the CCW – UNODA." United Nations.  Accessed June 8, 2022.
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Theoretical Framework

In order to fully analyze the nature of India’s relationship with two major powers e.g., US and
China over the surfacing of Lethal Autonomous Weapons it is important to opt for a theoretical
framework that elucidates the correlation between states and technological advancement. For
this purpose, the most appropriate paradigm is “techno-politics”. There exist some shared
assumptions amid scholars within the techno-politics paradigm, particularly among those who
tend to substantial contributions with respect to the role of technology in international relations.

First common assumption between Fritsch, Kranzberg and Eriksson is about the nature of
technology. Technology is considered neither good nor bad or neutral. This statement aims to
reflect upon the contrast to major IR paradigms (including constructivism), technology is
considered to be ‘deeply political’, and that technology highly intertwined with in the politics as
well as society and politics, making it an endogenic factor rather than to be seen as an
exogenous factor.5 As Fritsch emphasizes, : technology is an ‘ambivalent endogenous core
component of the global system’6. Similarly, according to Mayer, the paradigm of techno-politics
pursues to ‘cover the deserted area between technological determinism and human agency’7

Second common assumption emphasizes on multilayered ways in which technology and politics
are intertwined and shape and reshape each other. Scholars of techno-politics often address large-
scale socio-technical systems, also called ‘assemblages’. Mayer also says that Assemblages that
technology and politics are in a continuous process of shaping and reshaping each other.

Third, studies on techno-politics have made more specific contributions, some of which have
already been picked up by the wider IR literature. Particularly noteworthy is the notion of time–
space compression – the observation that the development of global information and
communications technology has allowed real-time communication on a global scale, regardless
5
"Theorizing technology and international relations: prevailing perspectives and new horizons." In Technology and
International Relations: The New Frontier in Global Power, edited by Lindy M., Johan Eriksson N. , 1-21.
Gloucestershire: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2021. ICh.

6
Stefan, Fritsch. "Conceptualizing the Ambivalent Role of Technology in International Relations: Between Systemic
Change and Continuity." In The Global Politics of Science and Technology - Vol. 2: Perspectives, Cases and Methods,
15-38. Basingstoke: Springer, 2014.

7
Mayer, Maximilian, Mariana Carpes and Ruth Knoblich (2014), ‘A toolbox for studying the global politics of science
and technology’, in Maximilian Mayer, Mariana Carpes and Ruth Knoblich (eds), The Global Politics of Science and
Technology – Vol. 2: Perspectives, Cases and Methods, Heidelberg: Springer, pp. 1–17.
 5

of where people are located. The notion of time–space compression, which has been elaborated
in STS (Fritsch, 2014), became a core element of the literature on globalization – a core theme in
IR (Scholte, 2005).

Technology and International Relations

A country’s international standing and its science and technological capabilities share a direct
correlation. Technology becomes an independent variable whereas the position or power of a
state is a dependent variable. The increase in the technological capabilities increases a state’s
monopoly in the world affairs. In an anarchic and interconnected word, an access or denial to a
certain technology plays a vital role in determining the fate of the nation. With the usage of
nuclear weapon by US against Japan in 1945 a new determinant of power was set. US emerged
as the super power. Power to set a norm, define “rights and wrongs” of international system and
to also to tag a state is vested in technologically advanced countries. It is pertinent to mention
that technology is not only an asset a power entails, but it is also a key determinant of how
certain states are to behave with each other in the aftermath of acquisition. To substantiate the
argument, it is important to mention one incident from the history that arrival of nuclear weapons
and ways in which it shaped the very structure of international system. The years following the
testing of nuclear weapons, US emerged as a superpower and enjoyed a unipolar world. As a
ripple effect, the wave of competition and deprivation of power intensified, and USSR also
followed the suit to get its hands on nuclear weapons adding to the existing security dilemma that
led to China, France and Britain entering the ring.8 The nature of relationship between the states
remained highly competitive and security centric. But at a certain point in history the concern
over the brutal tendencies of the nuclear weapons lead them to cooperate and acknowledge the
importance of formulating a framework to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons hence Non-
Proliferation Treaty, came forth. Times have changed so have the manifestations of power.
From nuclear weapons to AI driven weapon systems such as LAWS are likely to smash the
existing status quo. Great powers, in particular, compete ferociously to maintain their top dog
status through their edge in technology. Most high-tech developments are driven by the
competitive national quest to maintain the technological superiority over others.9 By making war
8
"Impact of Nuclear Weapons on International Relations." Your Article Library.  Last modified April 11, 201

9
Mohan, Malik. "Techno politics: How Technology Shapes Relations Among Nation." Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific
Center for Security Studies. Accessed June 6, 2022.
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more destructive, technology has made war an unreliable means of conducting great power
relations, thereby fostering co-operation among states.10 Hence the inference can be drawn that
technological advancement makes states behave on the cross roads of competition and
cooperation. They may start with a competition but eventually it will end up in more cooperative
realm. In the light of this let’s look at with the emergence of LAWS, India’s relationship with US
and China is going to be. Will it be more on a cooperative end or will it see a new wave of
competition.

India’s relationship with US and China on development of LAWS

The existing relationship dynamics between India, US and China is multilayered. India and US
both consider China a rival state. Despite that, China is among top five of trading partners of
India and US. US and India both share the same skepticism over China’s maneuvers. India is
concerned about CPEC as it gives China a strong foothold in Gwadar along Indian Ocean that is
backyard of India literally. Similarly, US is also concerned about the continuous rise of China
and its endeavors to take on the world. Interestingly the debate held in CCW reflected upon how
the three states are going to react to the development of LAWS. US and China calling it
inevitable are appreciative of the idea that one should acquire it. India however took a middle
ground.

According to Department of Defense US, “Building a better common understanding of the

potential risks and benefits that are presented by weapons with autonomous functions, in
particular their potential to strengthen compliance with IHL and mitigate risk of harm to
civilians, should be the focus of international discussion. The United States supports the progress
in this area made by the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, Group of Governmental
Experts on Emerging Technologies in the Area of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (GGE
on LAWS), which adopted by consensus 11 Guiding Principles on responsible development and
use of LAWS in 2019. The State Department will continue to work with our colleagues at the
Department of Defense to engage the international community within the LAWS .” 11

10
Ibid
11
"Artificial Intelligence (AI)." United States Department of State. Last modified September 15, 2021.
https://www.state.gov/artificial-intelligence/.
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Similarly, India in CCW took a stance that was neither a proponent nor a full opposition. It
maintained that “ It is a telling comment that some of the states that are viewed as being more
advanced than others in some of the technologies capable of contributing to future deployment
and use of LAWS are also active supporters of its consideration in the CCW process. This raises
interesting questions. Therefore, how we frame the terms of debate even at this nascent stage is
vitally important and will impact on the eventual outcome of our deliberations …... The other
view is that there is a spectrum of autonomy inbuilt into existing weapons systems and that a
prohibition on LAWS is either premature, unnecessary, or unenforceable.”12

China’s stance however shifted from asking for a legally binding protocol for LAWS to the
responsible use of them, On, 72nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly time, China
instead called for responsible use of LAWS, in compliance with the UN Charter and the laws of
armed conflict. It also sought respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity in the deployment
of these weapons.13

Findings:

In the light of statements above, one aspect is evident. None of the states want a complete ban
and they want to get onto this bandwagon for their own reasons. Also, that even if the stance
would have been otherwise, will of China for the development would have pushed India and US
to equip themselves to carter China from having an edge in the technology. As aforementioned
above, “By making war more destructive, technology has made war an unreliable means of
conducting great power relations, thereby fostering co-operation among states.”14 Competition is
the basic nature of international system and cannot be ignored that an arms race and quest for
technological superiority is going to put some strain. But, regardless of what peak the
competition reaches, it eventually will come down to cooperation. Some of the areas where they
can cooperate are given as:

12
"MEA | Statements : Speeches & Statements." Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. Accessed
June 8, 2022.

13
Mohanty, Bedavyasa. "Lethal Autonomous Dragon: China’s Approach to Artificial Intelligence
Weapons." ORF. Last modified November 20, 2017.

14
Ibid
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 Sharing of information of the autonomous weapons system for the sake of transparency
and maintaining trust.
 Intensifying the existing economic interdependence.
 Exchange of scientists, machinery, and researches.
 Policy making for LAWS and legally containing their instrumentality as per requirement.
 Joint trainings for handling of LAWS in a battlefield.

Opportunities and Challenges for India

There are various opportunities awaiting India in the context of development of lethal
autonomous weapons. Establishing its exclusive Military Industrial Complex : By starting its
own production India can establish its own exclusive “AI centric Military Industrial Complex

Technologically sound position leading to Strong footing in international arena : as the world is
becoming more globalized, and information centric, India is likely to enjoy a more decisive
position in global affairs.

The disturbance in strategic stability of south Asia is the main challenge that confronts India in
this realm. Any protective measure that India takes is likely to trigger a chain reaction across the
whole of South Asia. The first one to respond will be Pakistan, then China following the course.
China however was fine with the development of LAWS. But Pakistan asked for a ban so any
move by India will lead Pakistan to react in the same manner and making South Asia a “AI
driven Weaponized” region.

Conclusion:

In the nut shell, LAWS are a reality. They are not only a forecast but the debates surrounding
their developments have given states new thoughts to ponder. India China and US are not
holding back to achieve this new but dormant status quo. Through the lens, of techno politics
this will make all three cooperate among them selves in various ways and its also going to see
how this is going to impact their overall relationship as well. It also is likely to have certain
challenges and opportunities for India. But since LAWS re more in debate phase, it is a little
difficult to acutely identify the future. But it is going to chance the fate of course for sure.
 9

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 10

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 11

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Between Systemic Change and Continuity." In The Global Politics of Science and
Technology - Vol. 2: Perspectives, Cases and Methods, 15-38. Basingstoke: Springer,
2014.

"Theorizing technology and international relations: prevailing perspectives and new horizons."
In Technology and International Relations: The New Frontier in Global Power, edited
by Lindy M., Johan Eriksson N. , 1-21. Gloucestershire: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2021.
ICh.