FUTURE TRENDS FOR INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT

Choose three methodologies used in the study and formulation of future trends reports,
critique their approaches, and uses and suggest how you would use methodologies to
help triangulate their findings.
To initiate, it is important to note that a broad range of approaches has already been formed in
Future Studies. The future research is to examine alternative future possibilities, find hidden
prospects, forecast challenges and risks along possible timeline paths, and predict the likely
consequences of current events and behaviours (Mohamed,2017b). Futurists frequently claim
that their approaches are used to mitigate risk, whereas it is more appropriate to state that
they are attempting to handle ambiguity. Many judgments must be taken recently in the midst
of significant ambiguity regarding what may take place in the future or even what the
consequences of today's result may look like in the future. Futures approaches help
individuals in managing uncertainty by defining whatever is known, what could be
recognized, whatever the likely range of options is, which of the most desirable alternatives
were, as well as how today’s modern decisions might play out in any of a few feasible futures
(2019).
The Future Studies literature has several categories of its methodologies. The first
methodology is between qualitative and quantitative approaches. In general, qualitative
approaches entail intuition, innovation, assumption, as well as opinion. Quantitative
approaches are characterized using statistical information, mathematical computations, and
measuring tools. They may or might not be factually grounded, providing specific objective
truths about the past and current condition on the one hand, and intuitive, speculative, and
theoretical responses on the contrary when investigating respondents' visions of the future
(Puglisi,2001). Another crucial contrast is between explorative and normative techniques.
Exploratory studies look toward the present, while normative studies study what must emerge
to achieve a given goal. Exploratory forecasting encompasses several strategies for predicting
the condition of science and technology in the future. Normative forecasting method efforts
seek to establish a framework for assigning technology-generating resources to accomplish
organizational objectives (Edward. B,1969). Other differences that can be made are
between structured and unstructured processes/methods. The structured procedures are
designed around a "conceptual path" to also be pursued while progressing towards the
development of future pictures utilizing various ways. Unstructured methods are
investigations into possible futures in which professionals use their expertise and intuition to
establish and follow the links that emerge. They intend to construct those visuals through a
series of processes aimed at deepening the study, connecting the dots, and investigating
possibilities (Puglisi,2001). Even though much has been learned about futures studies
methodologies because many were developed in the past, they remain fairly vague. Many
futurists agreed on one theory that is: most future challenges require the employment of
numerous approaches. Creating a future research program that integrates several methods, for
instance, will provide far more knowledge than any specific methodology individually
(2019).

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Delphi method also called as estimate-talk-estimate technique (ETE) is a qualitative research
approach often used to achieve consensus among a group of subject matter experts.
Typically, the experts are requested to express their thoughts on the issue anonymously, and
the responses are then gathered and examined to establish a consensus viewpoint. In the
1950s and 1960s, the RAND Corporation created the approach to generate scenarios for long-
term strategy development, and it quickly became a widely accepted approach. One key
advantage of such a method is that it gives domain experts a place to talk as well as interact
with one another in a controlled setting (Afsari,2019). The Delphi technique appears to be
highly recognized for its capacity to structure and coordinate group conversation. However, it
is clear that individuals who employ the approach do not always agree to its stated basic
principles or subject it to thorough examination, which can lead to outcomes that appear more
significant than they are. (Sackman (1975) evaluated over 150 experiments that used the
Delphi technique and discovered that: "The restriction on such an attempt was the lateral
quickness of a set universally agreed upon working definition of Delphi." Many variations
have arisen, some of which deviate significantly from the Delphi technique associated with
its Rand origins. There are, however, certain essential notions and assumptions that appear in
the majority of Delphi applications and on which the results of a study are impacted and
based (Goodman,1987).
The use of the Delphi methodology may have certain potential benefits, one of which is the
potential ability to acquire consensus opinions from a group of experts without the need for
face-to-face interaction being a prerequisite. This can be useful in situations when it would be
impractical or impossible to bring together professionals in person, or where the subject at
hand is sensitive or controversial. In addition, the fact that participants in the Delphi method
remain anonymous can encourage them to provide honest and forthright feedback (Fink-
Hafner et al.,2019). The use of the Delphi process might have certain unintended
consequences, one of which is the danger of engaging in groupthink if the opinions of the
experts are not sufficiently diverse. For example, this might occur if all of the specialists
come from the same company or area of specialization. In addition, there is a possibility of
introducing bias into the Delphi technique if the experts are not chosen in a random fashion.
The implementation of approaches based on the Delphi method can be time-consuming and
expensive, and there is a possibility that the results will not apply to the entire population
(Fink-Hafner et al.,2019). If you were attempting to anticipate the demand for a new product,
the Delphi method could assist to triangulate their findings to obtain projections from a panel
of industry experts. A panel of industry experts would be asked to respond anonymously to
questions regarding the potential market for the new product. The responses would be
collated and shared with the group, which would then review and update their responses in
light of the collective feedback. This procedure would be repeated until an agreement is
reached regarding the most probable outcome.
Another widely used method that supports businesses in making decisions on the future by
locating and preparing for potential future scenarios is scenario planning. This is
accomplished through the use of future trends. This strategy can assist companies in adapting
to changing market situations, growing technical environments, and other external variables.
The first thing in designing scenario planning is we should target the boundaries. This
depends on which industries we are going to take, which varies the rate of change and
scenarios spread out in various boundaries. The second thing that determines the key

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stakeholders, the selection committee, as well as those most vulnerable to modification,
should participate in scenario strategy meetings, whereas the number of people present must
be kept to a minimum, and recognize trends. The constraint here is during the scenario-
building process, it may be challenging to keep from focusing on black-and-white situations
or choosing the most probable option. Scenario planning is a practitioner-driven
methodology. But, there isn’t much research that investigates the relationship between
scenario planning and company performance or finds the scenario possibilities. However, it is
essential for creating useful scenarios to identify politics and industries that shape a
company's actions as well as noise disturbance in society. After recognizing trends, create
your scenarios, examine the likelihood that leads to determining research requirements and
we can progress to decision scenarios. The finalized scenarios ought to be pertinent to your
business, conceivable, and broad enough just to apply in a wide range of situations (Culek
and Mitchell,2021).
Scenario planning is used by many business leaders, including Sales, Financial Services, to
envisage as well as evaluate all possible futures that stem from a business goal. Some further
reasons why corporate executives use scenario planning are as follows: Meet cross-functional
objectives collectively, Hazard assessment (Arora,2022). Scenario planning aids in making
better decisions and allows the organization to respond proactively, that is, to take the
necessary steps before the event occurs. For instance, Company XYZ manufactures
automobiles. They are currently in the industry for 20 years. They conducted a scenario
analysis 5 years ago as well as realized that there is going to be a period when petroleum
would be scarce in the future. So, three years ago, they began to prepare for this situation by
purchasing a battery manufacturing company. They are investing much in Research &
development to create a battery that can last 500 km on a single charge. The corporation
anticipated the shift in the scenario regarding crude production and prepared for its survival
without crude (Sinha,2015). A corporation could use scenario planning as a third method to
validate its findings when it is engaged in the process of attempting to forecast future trends.
For instance, if a company is trying to determine how new technology would affect its
business, it may create two scenarios: one in which the technology is extensively accepted
and one in which it is not widely embraced. The company would then compare the results of
the two scenarios to see which one best fits their expectations. By putting themselves in these
situations, the company will be able to better understand the consequences of each option and
make a decision that is based on more accurate information.
Furthermore, horizon scanning is the process of monitoring, analyzing, and interpreting
information regarding future changes that may have an effect on an organization or industry.
It assists organizations in identifying and anticipating major trends, issues, and opportunities
and in developing successful response strategies. Horizon scanning can also make use of a
variety of other resources that are available to the general public. Some examples of these
resources include government publications, studies from think tanks, and industry forecasts.
Horizon scanning is a process that can either be carried out in-house or outsourced to
specialist services. Outsourcing scanning activities to experts is a typical technique, as well as
a huge number of businesses, provide scanning services tailored to their client’s data
requirements. Firms may acquire scanning services and analytics, or they can simply register
to scan newsletters that are customized to their requirements. Another way would be to create
a specialized in-house scanning team whose entire focus would be to find, analyze, and

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communicate data regarding diverse external trends. One primary drawback of the above
approaches is also that confining scanning tasks and responsibilities to a limited group may
make it more difficult to establish a culture of foresight across a whole firm. However,
horizon scanning is also a viable technique for bringing individuals from other fields together
to debate a similar issue and find potential solutions. All horizon-scanning techniques employ
some cycle of scanning, analyzing, synthesizing, and sharing information. The efficacy of a
horizon-scanning technique is dependent on expert information from a range of reliable
sources (Bengston,2013).
Horizon scanning is used for examining the new official reports, discovering ways to be more
flexible to change, investigating potential future possibilities and hazards, etc. Consider this
case for instance when the United States Forest Service's Strategic Foresight Group and the
University of Houston's Foresight Program released an overview of one ‘s attempts in 2018
to ""Establish a continual horizon scanning system as a mere input to adopting
environmentally careful thought: knowledge into future environmental concerns and
possibilities, as well as the ability to apply that insight to plan for a stable society. Find out
where and how to look for scanning hits. Evaluate using both cross-level and cross-layered
analysis.Make a system for organising your discoveries, and Simply use your results in your
daily work. The criterion used to assess the importance of a problem inside the scan were
those previously described with an explanation of the criterion and questions to inquire about.
Many lessons were learned from trying to establish a horizon-scanning procedure inside a
federal agency in the United States. The report also discusses new suggestions for increasing
outcomes communication, combining outcomes within the host organization, tying results to
successful action, and making the procedure self-sustaining (National Academic Press,2020).
Horizon scanning can be used to triangulate data and gain a deeper understanding of a
problem or opportunity while formulating the strategy for a company endeavor. If you are
attempting to understand how climate change may affect your community or business, for
instance, horizon scanning can help you collect information from multiple sources and detect
potential trends. This data can then be utilized to determine how to effectively modify your
organization or plan for the future. Horizon scanning is an important technique that can help
organizations triangulate facts and make more educated strategic decisions.
As more and more businesses start to rely on data in order to make choices, the requirement
for accurate forecasts of future trends becomes an increasingly essential concern. Models of
prediction that are powered by data can assist businesses in anticipating and preparing for
future changes in the marketplace, identifying opportunities and hazards, and making more
informed decisions on resource allocation. Predicting future trends can be accomplished
through a variety of approaches, such as the Delphi technique, horizon scanning, scenario
planning, and SWOT Analysis to name just a few these approaches. Because every strategy
has its own set of pros and cons, it is crucial to select the strategy that is best suited to address
the challenge we come across.
In most sectors, a thematic analysis of the data utilizing various frames is carried out first,
then interviews are undertaken during the horizon scanning phase. The crucial component as
to which specialists collaborate in numerous sessions to provide a summary of perspectives
that falls underneath the Delphi technique is determined from any of these components. With
the use of the Delphi technique procedure, each question is given a number that represents the
experts' median opinion. The obtained calculated value will be given to a hypothetical future

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situation. These hypothetical futures aren't predictions; rather, they reflect a variety of
plausible futures that can be considered in order to aid decision-makers in developing the
adaptation strategies needed to make their systems better adaptable to modification. There is
a diverse range of reasons why certain projects and organizations utilizing the Delphi
technique, scenario planning, and horizon scanning and other methods or approaches fall
below expectations or accomplish objectives. Inadequate funding, a lack of managerial
backing, and widespread stakeholder participation are the main causes of horizon scanning
systems' failure(Bengston,2013). A drawback of the Delphi approach would be that experts'
predictions of events in the future may not always be accurate. Predictors can have an effect
on the social context during the scenario-building process as they are a part of it. Despite of
such difficulties, all methods are necessary.

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