PROBABILITY NB RANDOM EXPERIMENT nown in advance but the outcome of any specific performan own as random experiment An experiment, whose all possible oute not predicted before the completion of the experiment. is kn Sample-space and sample point iment 15 called the sample ~ space ang , A set whose elements represent all possible outcomes of a random expe' usually represented by 'S An clement of a sample - space 1s called # sample Event An event isa subset of sample ~ space ‘Simple Event and Compound Event: fan event is a set containing only one element of the sample-space, then it 1s called a simple event. A comp, event is one that can be represented as a union of sample points Definition we sum all weights assigned to sample points in A. This sum is called To find the probability of any event * measure or probability of A and is denoted by P(A), The probability of any event A is the sum of the weights of sample points in A. Therefore, 0 < P(A) < 1, Play ( PIS) = If @ random experiment can result in any one of N different equally likely outcomes, and if exactly n of thee outcomes correspond to A. then the probability of event A, P\A) =< PROBABILITY LAWS Mutually Exclusive Events A set of events is said to be mutually exclusive if the occurren the other events. Using set theoretic notation, if Ai. A: surrence of an} of f one of them precludes the - A, be the set of mutually exclusive events th A,OA,~ for i#) and 1Si.) Sn, Also, P(A, UA) = P(A) + P(A) Exhaustive Event A set of events is said to be exhaustive if the performance of random experiment always result in the occurrenst & atleast one of them. In other words all sample points put together (i.e. sample space itself) would give us & exhaustive event. If *E* be an exhaustive event then P(E) = | eS TeeseCR Set Theoretic Principles {Lot us ntroduce a few notations, which would be frequently used "and °B’ be any two events ofthe sample space then eA oA B would stand for occurrence of atleast one of them. \~B stands for simultaneous occurrence of A and B. A (or A’) stands for non-oecurrence of A AB (or AB) stands for non-occurrence of both A and B. A B stands for ‘the occurrence of A implies the occurrence of B’ IA and B are any two events, then P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) ~ (ADB) IfA and Bare mutually exclusive, P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B). © PAY = 1 PLAY © PLACB') ~ PLAY~ PLAN) © PLA'UBY) = 1 PYASB) # Plexactly one of A, B occurs) = P(A) + P(B) -2P(ANB) © PIACBUC) = PIA) + PLB) + PIC) ~ PLA 9B) ~ PLANC) - P(BOC) + P(AMBOC) © P(Exactly one of A, B, C occurs) POA) + PLB) + P(C) ~ 2P(AMB) ~ 2PLANC) - 2P(BOC) + 3PLAMBOC) © PExactly two of A, B, C occur) = P(A AB) + P(BAC) + PIANC) ~ 3P(ANBOC) © Pat least two of A, B, C occur) = P(AMB) + (BOC) + PAMC) - 2P(ANBC) TPA, Apes, Ay aren’ events, then P(A, U Ay UAg) Lrrg~ Yea, a9 LPIA, 9a, 08,)-2 (CU P(A AAG) © P(AWB)2 max (P(A), PIB), PCA) + PCB) ~ 1) © Ifout of m * n equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive cases, m cases are favourable to an A ‘event and n are not favourable to the an event A, m :m is called odds in favour of A, n : m is called odds against the event A. Conditional Probabil The probability of occurrence of an event B when itis known that some event A has occurred is called a condition probability and is denoted by P(BYA). The symbol P(BI/A) is usually read "the probability that B occurs given that A has occurred” or "simply probability of B, given A”. nA AB) nAOB) a(S) _ ACB) 2 ABAD ay aA) BAY iS) where 0 PLA) <1 PACD) 9 < Pips P(B) {P(A)-P(B/A), PLA) >0 | P(B)-P(A/B), P(B)>0 Similarly, P(A‘B) = Hence, P(A OB)Independent Events : g oF mon-occurrence of one does not aff, Two events A and B are said to be independent if occurrence of non-occt “. occurrence or non-occurtence of the other Le. PUBVA) ~ PUB), PCA) # 0 similarly PCA/B) (AB) HA) =? ASB) = P(A) (B) Wthe events are not independent, they are said to be dependent P(A), P(B) #0 = Pi) => PBA) Remarks: IEPA) = 0 = for event *B’,0.< P(AMB) < PLA). . = PAMB) = 0, thus P(ANB) = P(A}P(B) = 0. Hence an impossible event would be independent of other event Distinction between independent and mutually exclusive events must be carefully made. Independence Droperty of probability whereas the mutual exclusion isa set-theoretic concept. ITA and B are two muta Xclusive and possible events of sample space °S* then P{A) > 0, P(B) > Oand PAMB) = 0% Piaypg that A and B can’t be independent. Infact P(A/B) = 0, similarly P(B/A) = 0. Consequently exclusive events are strongly dependent Two events A and B are independent ifand only if A and BY are independent or A’ and B are indepen, or A’ and B’ are independent. We have P(AMB) = P(A)-P(B). Now P(AMB!) = P(A}P(B' Thus A and BY are independent. Similarly P(A’B) = P(B) ~ (ANB) = P(B} P(A’) Finally P(A’ 9 B') = P(A’-P(B') Thus A’ and B’ are also independent. mutual Mutual Independence and Pairwise Independence Three events A, B, C are said to be mutually independent if, PANB) = P(A)-P(B), P(A C) = P(A}P(C), P(B AC) = P(B)-P(C) and P(AMBC) = P(A)-P(B)-P(C) These events would be said to be pairwise independent if, PLAMB) = P(A}P(B), P(BOC) = P(B)-P(C) and PAC) = PA)-P(C), ‘Thus mutually independent events are pairwise independent but the converse may not be true Binomial Trials and Binomial Distribution Consider a random experiment whose outcomes can be classified as success or filure. It means that experime assume that experiment can be repeated seve = 1) and don’t vary from trial to trial and final mal experiment and trials are said to be binomial results in only two outcomes E,(success) or E; (failure). Further times, probability of sucess or failure im any tral are p and q (p+ different trials are independent. Such a experiment is called Bino trials A probability distribution representing the binomial trials is said to binomial distribution, Let us consider a Binomial experiment which has been Tepeated ‘n’ times. Let the probability of success and failut im any wal be p and q respectively and we are interested in the probability of occurrence of exactly °F successes" these n trials. Now number of ways of choosing ‘r’ success in ‘n’ trials ~ °C., Probability of *r° successes and (1-1 failures is p'-q""". Thus probability of having exactly r successes = iMEGACOSM 229) pe Let “X’ be random variable representing the number of successes, then PX =H)="Cep'qh! (P= 0, 1,2, +n) Remarks: * Probability of utmost ‘successes inn trials)" "C,p'q"™* Seep -at pal ‘+ Probability of atleast ‘successes in n trials © Probability of having 1" success at the r" trial TOTAL PROBABILITY THEOREM AND BAYES’ THEOREM Partition of Sample-Space: Consider a sample space ‘S". Let Ay, Az: A, be the set of ‘mutually exclusive and exhaustive set of sample-space S, ‘These Aj, Aa, ~~, Ay events are said to partition the sample- | space in to ‘n’-parts, | Z fon Wehave Ao Aj€ 6 fori#j.1 P(A)= PALA) + PALO A) + PARA) = P(A) P(AVA,) + P(Aa}P(A/A2) + «= + P(A,)PCA/Ag) => P(A) = DPA) P(A/A,).. This is known as the total probability of the event A. Bayes’ Theorem This theorem at times is also called inverse probability theorem, Let us consider any event ‘A’ of sample space ‘S’ (as in the previous section). Let us say that event A is found to have occurred and we have to find the probability that it has occurred to the occurrence of cause, say A.. From total probability theorem we get P(A)= )°P(A\)-P(A / A\) a P(A, VA) _ P(A\)-P(A Aj) so, P(A/A) = PALMA) _ PARA / Ai) Also, PAA) = “So A PA)-P(A_!_ Ai) = PAJA) . This result is known as Bayes’ theorem. DPA)-PA ' A)an , Ce Value of Testimony Such an apphcation The theory of probabsity can be asc ta estimate the vale af testamony of ston {wo baste asaurnptions, {39 That to cach witness there pertans a constant Pius creshbibty), which mewures the averse Hequeney ssn he speaks the truth (1) That the statements of wstnesse sue malepenudett of eave anoslice an the sense requuted in the thee4y OF probsjy ILLUSTRATIVE PROBLEMS 1 Find the probability that an yi GHOMHIAt random hay 53 Sundays. Sol, Let PUL) -+ be the probability that an year éhoxen at random is leap year ML) V4,» P(E) = a {et POS) -» be the probability that an year chosen at random has 53 PS) PAD PUSILY PL) Pes L Now PS/L) prob. that a leap year has $3 Sundays A leap year has 466 days, $2 weeks + the rem: aming 2 days may be Sunday-Monday, M-T,T-W, W-Th, The, E-Sat or Si Out of the 7 possibilities 2 are favourable PSL) == Similarly POS’ psy 2,31 8 S747 2 A person draws a card from # pack of $2, replaces it and shuffles it. He continues doing it until he draws a spade, What isthe chance that he has to make (i) atleast 3 trials (il) exactly 3 trials : Sol. (1) For atleast 3 trials, he has to fail at the first 2 attempts and then after that it doesn't make a difference i he fails or wins at the 3rd or the subsequent attempts. Chance of success at_any_attemyi 14 chance of failure = 3/4 (39 chance offing in frst 2atempe ~ (F) => (11) For exactly 3 attempts, he has to fail in the first two attempts and succeed in the 3rd attempt (ay 19 required probabilit =| -quired probability (2) aa 3. Iva game of tickets, 8 tiekets numbered 1, 2,3, ......, 8 are grouped in pairs at random and obsened tickets of pairs are kept and others are thrown and this process s se, the lower numbe . ‘ more. Find the probability that out of remaining two tickets, one is numbered 4, 8! Sol Te nber of ways in first process = — So um pr aa 4! 8! and in second process = — so total number of ways 7 Yan Qn Qt Ql For favourable ways lets divide tickets into two groups 1234 5,6,7,8 EQN)Ce Tieket of number 4 hh, sand th a» to be selected so that sts grouping must be with a higher number and tl 4 “ould be an higher numberof 4 a the end of fist process so favourable numbers are °C) ¢ Ane So required probabilny © 2472 4 w 5 Qh 4 There are four players Ay, Az, Ax and Ay in pool A and four players B,, By, Bs and By in pool B. They arc arbitrarily paired in their respective pools to play against each other and one winner is decided in cach pair to play in semifinal. It is known that whenever Ay plays with A,, A; wins the game and ‘whenever By plays with By, B, wins. Find the probability that (Ay and Ay reach tn the semifinal (il) Aven Bs and By each semifinal {In pool a pairing may be done in following ways Way no 1 A\Ayand AyAy Way no 2~ A\Ay and AyAy Way no 3: A\Agand AyAy ‘outcomes of different ways are Sol. _W-1 AvAy AAs I faa | AA, [aA | A [Awe od Joh AA, AlAs AsAy AsAs (1) The probability that A\A; reach the serufinal {0444 4)_! 4 4) 6 ! ite. The probability that A and B speak truth are P, and from the bay and A and B both assert that it is white, Find the white, Sol. Let A\(A,) be the event that drawn ball is white (non-white) and *E” be the event that A and B claim that drawn ball is white, Clearly, 1 P(A) =~, PIA) ; a a P(E/A,)= Py Ps, P(E/A2) = (1 ~P,) (1 ~P:) = P(E) =PIA,)PUEIA,) + PLAS) PUEVAa) e -1) PP +B) (Psy BP O20 Gp yp) = MLD Rm) ek 0 n n PLA)-PIE/A)) (n= DR_P, = PAVE) = P(E) “RP +-B) Py)BB SOLVED PROBLEMS Team A plays with 5 other teams exactly once, Assuming that for cach match the probabrhitics of y draw and loss are equal then M (A) the probability that A wins and losses equal number of matches 8 7 (B) the probability that A wins and losses equitl number of matches 1s — (C) the probability that A wins more number of matches than it Losses 1s. 16 (D) the probability that A losses more number of matches than it wins 15 + Ewin, Hoss + 2 win, 2 loss Sol. (B). Probability of same numberof wins and losses“ no wins no losses nyt fy ” 2 [=] (+204 = a(t) (4) av230-F =?) 2 Bi) Br yf ( = Probability that A wins more matches than its losses 64 players play in a knock out tournament assuming all the players are of equal strength the probability that 2 1 Py) losses to P. and P; becomes the eventual champion is a (B) 67 fa 1 612 (D) One 512 63-2' champion is—. P2 plays against 6 other players which can be selected in (B). The probability that P, Sol. ‘Ca ways. IPP: losses to P; then P, is included in 6 players in Cs ways. "Cy it Hence probability 2m is inversely proportional to k 33 Ifthe probability of choosing an integer k out of *2m* integers 1, 2,3 (1 Sk < 2m), then the probability that chosen number is odd (B)> 1. (D)<13 (Ay> (Cys @ . ais constant of proportionality Sol. (B). Let the probability of choosing integer k; p(k) Swat «-[ Se a kel rk } Eee -a ar p (choosing an odd number), =a>2. —_—_— GURU ae)Sol. Sol. 49 teams play a tour, ge results na win for wament, Each team plays he end of th. that at the end of the Hh team has a S0% el tournament every team hi every other team just once, Each ga ce of winning each game, the probaby was won a diflerent number of games 1s fone team. If eal ww 40! 780 BS oe : ac (D) none of these (B). Team totaly must be 0, 1,2, ....39. Let the tans be, To, Tan so that T, losses 10, for 1< 5. i thet words this order uniquely determines the result of every game Here are 40! such orders and 780 ganies, so 2™" possible outcomes for the games. Hence the probability 15 20 In a game a coin is tossed (2n + m) ote i mes and a player wins if he does not get any two consecutive nies Same for atleast 2n times in a row. The probability that player wins the game is (Ay (D). Player should get (HT, HT, HT...) or (TH, TH, .....) atleast 2n times. If the sequence start from first place then probability —— and ifany other time probability is m+2 Hence probability A 2n digit number starts with 2 and all its digits are prime, then the probability that the sum of all 2 consecutive digits of the number is prime, is. (Ay4x 2” (B)4x2™ 2" (D) none of these a a — = Z = -_ __| ‘| The prime digits are (2, 3,5, 7) If we fix 2 at first place, then other (2n ~ 1) places are filled by al four digits, so total number of cases = 4°" Now, sum of 2 consecutive digits is prime when consecutive digits are (2, 3) or (2, $) then 2 will be fixed at allaltemative places jo So favourable eases = 2°. Therefore probabil ree ‘Two numbers a. b are chosen from the set of integers 1, 2, 3, ...... 39. Then probability that the equation Ja 9b -O is satisfied is (B) — 7 — TR SeaSol (©). Gren Ta~ 9-0 b= Fa Hence numberof pairs (a,b) can be (9, 7) (18, 14): (27, 21): 36, 28) 4 ence required probability Hence required probability = 55 ——= 5 tnultiplied together, The probability that the last digit ny, & Four whole numbers, taken at random, product is 1. 3, 7or 91s 16 ! _ Wis Bos p= Ws 53 Sol, (B), Each number inthe product should have the last digit as one of the digits 1, 3,7, 9 Required probability =" Ww 9 Two numbers x and y are choose at random (without replacement) from amongst the numbers 1, 2 3... 2004, The probability that x" + y! 1s divisible by 3.18 B)2 “™ (B) 5 I 1 = (D) = on i Sol, (A), Let By = 1,4,7........(neach) 3n = 2004 Ey = 2,5, Bo sseeu (reach) Ey = 3,6, 9...0..Am each) x and y belong to (E,, E:), (E>, E,) or (Es, Ex) ‘One mapping is selected at random from all mappings of the set $ = {1, 2. 3, ...4 m} into itself. If the 10. probability that the mapping is one-one is, then the value of n is (Ay2 (B)3 (4 (D) none of these Sol. (C). Total number of mapping = Number of one-one mapping ="C)."'C, ..........'C) =n! Hence the probability Comparing, we get n ~ 4 A dice is thrown 2n * | times, n © N. The probability that faces with even numbers show up odd numbers of times 1s an+ 2n+1 (B) less than 4n+3 (a) 7 1 (©) greater than > (D) none of these SSS TAsa7 sco Sol. (D). Let probability of ‘showing even and odd number be p and q respectively pand q respectively Probability that faves with even number show eld number of limes Cope icy pty Ca $2 Avan B are two events such that P(A) 0.3 and PB) = 0.28 and P (AB) = 0.2 then P(A/B) is equal to 2 v Nis yt M4 ; Ons oe Sok (DJ. PAH) 13. Entries of 2. 2 daterminaut ate Giosen fiom the set (1, L}. The probability that determinant has ero value is (ayia (By s ie {D) none ofthese So ©). i ‘| ad ~be 0 =p wheinerad Ibe ~ Forad =~ I, be= = 1 which occur in eight ways, Total number of 2» 2 determinants from {-1, 1} is 16. Thus required et probabitay is ® - } 16 2 14. A. and B are to independent events. The probability that A and B happen simultaneously is 4 and neither A nor B happens i a) Pray, pany = (Hy KA) —2 mB) copay -+,pp-4 (0) PA) +, eB) 4 3 6 2 Sol. (AC) PLA 9B) = PA), PB) a) PAB)= PAY. PCB) =1/2 => (1 P(A)) (1 PB) = 1/2 => [-P(A)- P(B) + P(A) PB) = 1/2 => 1+ P(A)- P(B) + W/12 = 12 => P(A) + P(B) = 7/12 2). Solving (1) and (2) xives P(A) = 1/3 or H4 Accordingly, P(B) = U4 or V/3Comprehension Jeposts ome pee 10S and they fp ound he ¢ Ajay playy a game against an electronic machine. At each rou ae ‘ad. If head comes, he gets back the rupee he deposited and ong More py, sated wath 10 one rupee COM. Asneg whicl has probability p of sowing a from the machine If tail shows he loses his coin, Suppose he plobable event of getting a til Answer the following questions The probability that Ajay 6 fet with no money by the tenth round oF earlier ts 15, © proba cl y 0 iq" BDC (C) pq (Dy =p") Sol, (A). Ajay will left with no money at the end of the tenth round or earher Hand only The gets. tion. of them Hence required probability q". 16. The probability that his money will end up exactly in the twelfth round 1s (Aya! (B) 1p (©) "Cypq" (D) ?C.p’q"" Sol, (C). In order to finish up atthe twelfth chance he must have exactly one head in first ten chances and ayy the eleventh and twelflh round then apparently we have required probability ~ '"C,pq'! Hence (Chis correct option 7. The probability that he 1s left with no money by the 14" round or earlier is (A) "C+ 10pq + 45p%q) (B) q'(p°q + 36pq + 7) (Cy q!? + 3pq!? + 3p"g +p" (D) 1 ~ “Cypq" = "C3p‘q Sol. (A). Apparently he eannot be drained at the 13 round if Ajay gets at least 2 heads inthe first 10 rounds finish atthe 14° round. Ajay must get exactly 2 heads inthe first 10 rounds and a tail on all the rns from 11 to 14° rounds, wh Ihave probability "Cp" Therefore required probability = q!" + "Cipq'' + °Csp'q!? = q!” (1 + 10pq + 45p°q"") Hence (A) is correct option Assertion Reason 18. Statement 1: P(A/B) 2 P(A), then P(BYA) > P(B) because (A0B) Statement 2: P(AvB) = ACB) a correct explanation for Statement-I (A) Statement -| is True, Statement -2 is True: Statement-, is NOT a correct explanation for Statement| (B) Statement -| 1s True, Statement -2 1s True: Statemen (C) Statement -1 is True, Si (D) Statement -I is False, Statement -2 is True EW eano <- ; bay. PAN) > sal (AR PATIN 2 PLA) => SOB pray gp PAO? nis 5 prBa)2 PB) PB) PAD 19, In toumsment there are twelve players §,. 83... Sis and divided into six pairs at random. From cach game wins f ssuming all “iets decided on the hasts of a game played between the two players ofthe pair. Assuming 2 the patty are of equal ste then match the following Column oe (M1 Probabitiy that 8:49 among the losers 1s 2 > (1) Probability that exactly one S, and S, 18 among the losers, 1 10 Oe ni (©) Probability that both §; and Sy are among the winners is 1 nos (D) Probability of Sy and S. not playing against each other is & a w 0 Sok 6A) .0: B) > (> (PD) > (@) "Cot A + C2 (B) Let, be the event that S, and Sy are in same group 10 Let be the event that Sand S, are in different group P(E,) = i ane Let E be the event that exactly one of S; and S« is among the losers, then PCE) = P(E, )P(E YE, )+ P(E; )P(E/E,) (C) S; and S, should be in different groups for both being winner 6. Required probability i oc Answer Q.20, Q.21 and Q.22 by appropriately matching the information given in the three columns of the following table, ] Column-I1 | I drawn) | (probability belongs to interval) | [UD Two cards are drawn without (i) atleast one king is, replacement drawn ost one is (i) Toca are dawn with replacement |" simost one of ham “TIli) Three cards are drawn and keptaside. | - Now. two cards ae dravm without | (i no king is dawn replacement _ replace a (IV)One red card is added from another deck | (iv) both cards drawn are of cards, Now, two cards are drawn kings — TS esach of the following are correct? (By db GH) (Q) 2 Ww (Arta Rd (CI avy (P) (DIVA (Q) so.) * I Te 3 21, Which of the following are NOT correct? (ADR (B) (ID) Gy) (P) (Cd ID (0) 8) (DV) (RY Sol, 22. Which of the following are correct? (ADO) P (B) 1) (1) (R) (CAN) Gin) Q) (AV) GV) (Q) Sol. (A) *c 1 GG 23, Number 1, 2, 3. con. 9 are put into 3 x 3 matrix such that all elements of matny are distinct. If probabitiy that sum of numbers in atleast one row is greater than 21 can be expressed in ™ (where m1 are coprime) then n= mis equal to Sol. (6.00) Bx bx3x6! Probability = 28860 n-m=7-1=6 24, A bag contains red and black balls, at most 17 in total, when two balls are randomly selected without 1 replacement, probability that both are black or both are red is 4. If largest possible number of re balls th can be present in the bag be ‘m’, then sum of digits of m i Sol. (1.00) Let r be red balls b are black balls IGMP-MATHEMATICS-PROBABILIT7 2 ate drawn out of the set {1, 2, 3, wu. 9} with replacement and the equation, 742], -n4)x +: =0 is formed, then the probability that the equation has real roots is __ 4 (a) = 7 : (B) Ti OTs 2 3 Sol. (0.44) (ny ~m,¥ 2 2n, Total : 6 4 4 2 2 3 4 4 26. Aisa set Containing ‘n’ elements. A subset P of A is chosen at random, The set A is reconstructed by replacing the elements ofthe subset P. A subset Q of A is again chosen at random the probability such that 1G. yet PrvQomis2emeis "C3" gy 2) a Sol. (1.33) Let A= (21,83 sn ay} For each a, € A(1 Q contains two elements ee SRE See