CHAPTER 3

Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions

3.1 CONCEPT OF A RANDOM VARIABLE
 Random variable is a function that associates a real number with each element in the
sample space. A random variable is a numerical description of the outcomes of
experiments.
 Example:
Possible values for
Experiment Random Variable (rv)
the random variable
Observe cars passing a No. of cars passing the
0, 1, 2, 3,…
checkpoint checkpoint
Inspect 30 calculators of
No. of defective
class 3A (looking for the no. 0, 1, 2, 3,…, 30
calculators
of defectives)
Toss 2 coins (looking for
No. of head 0, 1, 2
head)
Inspect 70 radios for
No. of defective radio 0, 1, 2,…, 70
defective ones
 Practice: Two balls are drawn in succession without replacement from an urn containing
4 red balls and 3 black balls. The possible outcomes and the values y of the random
variable Y, where Y is the number of red balls, are…?

Type of Random Variable

Discrete r.v Continuous r.v

A random variable that assumes
countable values is called a discrete
random variable.
Examples:
1. The number of cars sold at a
dealership during a given month
2. The number of houses in a certain
block
3. The number of fish caught on a
fishing trip
4. The number of complaints received
at the office of an airline on a given
day
5. The number of customers who visit
a bank during any given hour
6. The number of heads obtained in
three tosses of a coin
A random variable that can assume any
value contained in one or more intervals
is called a continuous random
variable.
Example:
1. The length of a room
2. The time taken to commute from
home to work
3. The amount of milk in a gallon (note
that we do not expect “a gallon” to
contain exactly one gallon of milk but
either slightly more or slightly less
than one gallon)
4. The weight of a letter
5. The price of a house
3.2 Discrete Probability Distributions (Probability Mass
Functions; Mathematical Expectations)

3.2.1 Probability Mass Functions

 If a sample space contains a finite number of possibilities or an unending sequence with
as many elements as there are whole numbers, it is called discrete sample space.
 A function can serve as the probability distribution of a discrete random variable X if and
only if its values, f(x), satisfy the conditions:
a) P(X=x)  0
b) P(X=x) = 1
c) P(X=x) = f(x)

 Example;
1. Toss a balance coin for 3 times. Find the probability distribution of the random variable
X, the total no. of heads obtained.
2. In a family with 4 children, find the probability distribution for the number of females.
3. The probability distribution of a random variable Y is given by P(Y=y) = cy2, y = 0,1,2
and 3. Given c is a constant, find the value of c.
4. The following table lists the probability distribution of the number of breakdowns per
week for a machine based on past data.

Find the probability that the number of breakdowns for this machine during a given week
is
a) exactly 2
b) 0 to 2
c) more than 1
d) at most 1

5. The number of students using Math Lab per day is found in the distribution below;
𝑋=𝑥 6 8 10 12 14
𝑓(𝑥) 0.15 0.3 0.35 0.1 0.1
a) What is the probability that fewer than 10 students use the lab in a given day?
b) What is probability that at least 8 students will use the lab?
c) Find the probability that there will be 10 to 14 students will use the lab.
6. A shipment of 8 similar microcomputers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are defective.
If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, find the probability
distribution for the number of defectives.

3.2.2 Mathematical Expectations

1. The expected value,  = E(X) = x.f(x)
2. The variance,
2 = E[(X-)2]
= (x-)2 . f(x)
 =  (x2-2x+2 ). f(x)
=  x2 f(x) - 2x f(x) + 2 f(x)
=  x2 f(x) - 2 + 21
= x2 .f(x) - 2
= E(x2 )-  2

Notes that: E(X) = x.f(x),

E(X2 ) = x2 .f(x)
.
.
E(Xr ) = xr .f(x)

Example 1:
A volunteer ambulance service handle from 0 to 5 service calls on any given day. The
following probability distribution gives the number of service calls.
No. of service
0 1 2 3 4 5
calls, x
f(x) 0.1 0.15 0.3 0.2 0.15 0.1
a) What is the expected number of service calls?
b) What is the variance in the number of service calls?
c) What is the standard deviation in the number of service calls?

Example 2:
The probability distribution of a discrete variable X is given by
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑐(𝑥 + 5) 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 = 1,2,3,4,5.
0 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒

Find,
a) Value of constant c
b) Expected value of X, 𝐸(𝑋)
c) Variance of X, 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋)
Example 3
𝑋=𝑥 6 8 10 12 14
𝑓(𝑥) 0.15 0.3 0.35 0.1 0.1
Calculate mean and standard deviation.
3.3 Special Discrete Probability Distributions (Uniform; Binomial;
Poisson; Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution)

3.3.1 Discrete Uniform distribution

If the random variable X assumes the values x1 , x2 ,....., xk , with equal probabilities, then the
discrete uniform distribution is given by

1
𝑓(𝑥) = , 𝑥 = 𝑥 , 𝑥 , . . . , 𝑥
𝑘

Parameter: k is a positive integer

The mean and variance of the discrete uniform distribution are

k n

x i  (x  )
i
2

E( X )    i 1
2  i 1
k , k

Example:

1. When a fair dice is tossed, therefore we have a uniform distribution with

1
f ( x)  , x  1,2,3,4,5,6.
6

2. When a marble is selected at random from an urn contains 4 different colours; blue,
red, green and yellow. The probability of being selected is equal, thus a uniform
distribution can be form as
1
f ( x)  , x  blue, red , green, yellow.
4

3.3.2 Binomial distribution

The number X of successes in n independent Bernoulli trials, all with the same success
probability p, is called a binomial random variable. The probability distribution of this random
variable is called the binomial distribution, is

A binomial experiment is one in which;

1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials.

2. Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a success or a failure.
3. The probability of success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial.
4. The repeated trials are independent.
n
f ( x)    p x (1  p ) n x , x  0, 1,2,..., n.
 x

Parameter: n is a positive integer and 0<p<1

The mean and variance of the distribution are

E ( X )  np
Var ( X )  npq

Example:

1. In the instant lottery with 20% winning tickets, if X is equal to the number of winning
tickets among n=8 that are purchased,
a) then the probability distribution of X may be written as,
8
f ( x)   0.2 x (0.8) 8 x , x  0, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8.
 x
b) the probability of purchasing two winning tickets is,
8
f (2)   0.2 2 (0.8) 8 2  0.2936
 2
2. Suppose that observation over a long period of time has disclosed that, on the average,
1 out of 10 items produced by a process is defective. Select five items independently
from the production line and test them. Let X denote the number of defective items
among the n = 5
a) then the probability distribution of X may be written as,
5
𝑓(𝑥) = 0. 1 (0.9) , 𝑥 = 0,  1,2,3,4,5.
𝑥
b) the probability at most 1 defective item is selected is,
5  5
P( X  1)  f (0)  f (1)   0.10 (0.9) 50   0.11 (0.9) 51  0.9185
0 1
c) the mean and variance of X are,
E ( X )  5  0 .1  0 .5
Var ( X )  5  0.1  0.9  0.45

3. Find the probability that seven of 10 persons will recover from a disease if we can
assume independence and the probability is 0.8 that any one of them will recover from
the disease.
X=persons recover from the disease
n=10, p=0.8
𝑿~𝑩𝒊𝒏(10,0.8)
10
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟕) = 0. 8 (0.1) = 0.0252
7

4. A survey shows that one out of five says he or she has visited a doctor in any given
month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the probability that at most 3 will have
visited a doctor last month.
X=pay a visit to the doctor
n=10, p=1/5=0.2
𝑿~𝑩𝒊𝒏(10,0.2)
 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟑) = 𝒇(𝟎) + 𝒇(𝟏) + 𝒇(𝟐) + 𝒇(𝟑)
10 10 10
= 0. 2 (0.8) + 0. 2 (0.8) + 0. 2 (0.8)
0 1 2
10
+ 0. 2 (0.8) = 0.1074 + 0.2684 + 0.3020 + 0.2013 = 0.8791
3

5. A survey found that 30% of teenage consumers receive their spending money from
part-time jobs. If 5 teenagers are selected at random, find the probability that at least
3 of them will have part-time jobs.
X= teenager receives money from part time job
n=5, p=0.3
𝑿~𝑩𝒊𝒏(5,0.3)
5 5 5
𝑷(𝑿 ≥ 𝟑) = 𝒇(𝟑) + 𝒇(𝟒) + 𝒇(𝟓) = 0. 3 (0.7) + 0. 3 (0.7) + 0. 3 (0.7)
3 4 5
= 0.1323 + 0.0284 + 0.0024 = 0.1631

3.3.3 Poisson distribution

Definition: Let the number of occurrences of some event in a given continuous interval be
counted. Then we have an approximate Poisson process with parameter   0 if the following
conditions are satisfied:

a) The number of occurrences in nonoverlapping subintervals are independent.

b) The probability of exactly one occurrence in a sufficiently short subinterval of
length h is approximately h
The number X of outcomes occurring during a Poisson experiment is called a Poisson random
variable, and its probability distribution is called the Poisson distributions in the form of

𝑒 𝜆
𝑓(𝑥) = , 𝑥 = 0,1,2, . . ..
𝑥!

Where  is the average number of outcomes per unit, distance, area or volume.

Parameter: 
The mean and variance of the distribution are

𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜆
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝜆

Example:

1. Customers arrive at a travel agency at a mean rate of 7 per hour. Assuming that the
number of arrivals per hour has a Poisson distribution, give the probability that more
than 6 customers arrive in a given hour.
X=the arrival of customers per hour.
 𝝀=𝟕
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊(𝟕) 𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓
𝑷(𝑿 > 𝟔) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟔) = 𝟏 − [𝒇(𝟎) + 𝒇(𝟏) + 𝒇(𝟐) + 𝒇(𝟑) + 𝒇(𝟒) + 𝒇(𝟓) + 𝒇(𝟔)]
𝑒 7 𝑒 7 𝑒 7 𝑒 7 𝑒 7 𝑒 7 𝑒 7
=𝟏− + + + + + +
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6!
= 1 − [0.4497] = 0.5503

2. A secretary makes 2 errors per page, on average. What is the probability that on the
next page he or she will make,
a) 4 or more errors
b) No errors
X=the number of errors per page.
𝝀=𝟐
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊(𝟐) 𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝒑𝒂𝒈𝒆
𝒆 𝟐 𝟐𝟎
a) 𝑷(𝑿 ≥ 𝟒) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟑) = 𝟏 − [𝒇(𝟎) + 𝒇(𝟏) + 𝒇(𝟐) + 𝒇(𝟑)] = 𝟏 − 𝟎!
+
𝒆 𝟐 𝟐𝟏 𝒆 𝟐 𝟐𝟐 𝒆 𝟐 𝟐𝟑
𝟏!
+ 𝟐!
+ 𝟑!
= 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟖𝟓𝟕𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟒𝟐𝟗
𝒆 𝟐 𝟐𝟎
b) 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟎) = 𝟎!
= 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟓𝟑

3. A certain area hit by 6 hurricanes a year, on average. Find the probability that for a
given year that area will be hit by,
a) Fewer than 4 hurricanes
b) Anywhere from 6 to 8 hurricanes
X=the number of hurricanes per year.
𝝀=𝟔
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊(𝟔) 𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓
𝒆 𝟔 𝟔𝟎 𝒆 𝟔 𝟔𝟏 𝒆 𝟔 𝟔𝟐 𝒆 𝟔 𝟔𝟑
a) 𝑷(𝑿 < 𝟒) = 𝒇(𝟎) + 𝒇(𝟏) + 𝒇(𝟐) + 𝒇(𝟑) = 𝟎!
+ 𝟏!
+ 𝟐!
+ 𝟑!
= 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓𝟏𝟐
𝒆 𝟔 𝟔𝟔 𝒆 𝟔 𝟔𝟕 𝒆 𝟔 𝟔𝟖
b) 𝑷(𝟔 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟖) = 𝟔!
+ 𝟕!
+ 𝟖!
= 𝟎. 𝟒𝟎𝟏𝟔

4. Eight is the average number of oil tankers arriving each day at a certain port city. The
facilities at the port can handle at most 12 tankers per day. What is the probability that
on a given day, tankers have to be turns away?
X=The arrival of takers each day
𝝀=𝟖
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊(𝟖) 𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝒅𝒂𝒚
𝑷(𝑿 ≥ 𝟏𝟑) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟏𝟐) = 𝟏 − [𝒇(𝟎) + 𝒇(𝟏) + 𝒇(𝟐) + ⋯ . . +𝒇(𝟏𝟏) + 𝒇(𝟏𝟐)]
 Too many to calculate, we can use statistical table to calculate prob
 Read this as λ
P(X ≥ x)

P(X≥13)

Thus, P(X≥13)=0.0638

3.3.4 Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

Rule of thumb: n>20 and p<0.05  np<5

If 𝑛 is large and 𝑝 is close to 0, the Poisson distribution can be used with   np , to

approximate binomial probabilities.

e  np (np) x
f ( x)  , x  0,1,2,....
x!

Example;
1. In a certain industrial facility, accidents occur infrequently. It is known that the
probability of an accident on any given day is 0.005 and accidents are independent of
each other.
a) What is the probability that in any given period of 400 days there will be an
accident on one day? (ans:0.2707)
b) What is the probability that there are at most three days with an
accident?(ans:0.857)

X=number of accidents in industry

 n=400 (large) p=0.005 (small) np=2 (np<5)
 use Poisson approximation to the Binomial
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊(𝟐)
𝒆 𝟐 𝟐𝟏
a) 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟏) = 𝟏!
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕𝟎𝟕
𝒆 𝟐 𝟐𝟎 𝒆 𝟐 𝟐𝟏 𝒆 𝟐 𝟐𝟐 𝒆 𝟐 𝟐𝟑
b) 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟑) = 𝒇(𝟎) + 𝒇(𝟏) + 𝒇(𝟐) + 𝒇(𝟑) = 𝟎!
+ 𝟏!
+ 𝟐!
+ 𝟑!
= 𝟎. 𝟖𝟓𝟕

2. In a manufacturing process where glass products are produced, defects or bubbles

occur, occasionally rendering the piece undesirable for marketing. It is known that on
average, 1 in every 1000 of these items produced has one or more bubbles. What is
the probability that a random sample of 3000 will yield fewer than 7 items possessing
bubbles?(ans:0.9665)
X=the number of defective products
n=3000(large) p=0.001 (small) np=3 (np<5)
 use Poisson approximation to the Binomial
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊(𝟑)
𝒆 𝟑 𝟑𝟎 𝒆 𝟑 𝟑𝟏 𝒆 𝟑 𝟑𝟐 𝒆 𝟑 𝟑𝟑
𝑷(𝑿 < 𝟕) = 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟔) = 𝒇(𝟎) + 𝒇(𝟏)+. . . +𝒇(𝟔) = 𝟎!
+ 𝟏!
+ 𝟐!
+ 𝟑!
+
𝒆 𝟑 𝟑𝟒 𝒆 𝟑 𝟑𝟓 𝒆 𝟑 𝟑𝟔
𝟒!
+ 𝟓!
+ 𝟔!
= 𝟎. 𝟗𝟔𝟔𝟓

3. The probability that a person will die from a certain respiratory infection is 0.002. Find
the probability that fewer than 5 of the next 2000 infected will die. (ans:0.6288)
X=the number died persons from respiratory infection
n=2000(large) p=0.002 (small) np=4 (np<5)
 use Poisson approximation to the Binomial
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊(𝟒)
𝑷(𝑿 < 𝟓) = 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟒) = 𝒇(𝟎) + 𝒇(𝟏) + 𝒇(𝟐) + 𝒇(𝟑) + 𝒇(𝟒)
𝒆 𝟒 𝟒𝟎 𝒆 𝟒 𝟒𝟏 𝒆 𝟒 𝟒𝟐 𝒆 𝟒 𝟒𝟑 𝒆 𝟒 𝟒𝟒
= + + + + = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟐𝟖𝟖
𝟎! 𝟏! 𝟐! 𝟑! 𝟒!

4. Suppose that on average, 1 person in 1000 makes numerical error in preparing his or
her income tax return. If 3,500 forms are selected at random and examined, find the
probability that at most 6 of the forms contain an error.(ans:0.9347)
X=the number error in preparing income tax
n=3500(large) p=0.001 (small) np=3.5 (np<5)
 use Poisson approximation to the Binomial
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊(𝟑. 𝟓)

𝒆 𝟑.𝟓 𝟑.𝟓𝟎 𝒆 𝟑.𝟓 𝟑.𝟓𝟏 𝒆 𝟑.𝟓 𝟑.𝟓𝟐 𝒆 𝟑.𝟓 𝟑.𝟓𝟑

𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟔) = 𝒇(𝟎) + 𝒇(𝟏)+. . . +𝒇(𝟔) = 𝟎!
+ 𝟏!
+ 𝟐!
+ 𝟑!
+
𝒆 𝟑.𝟓 𝟑.𝟓𝟒 𝒆 𝟑.𝟓 𝟑.𝟓𝟓 𝒆 𝟑.𝟓 𝟑.𝟓𝟔

𝟒!
+ 𝟓!
+ 𝟔!
= 𝟎. 𝟗𝟑𝟒𝟕