INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR

POPULATION SCIENCE
PAPER NAME - MIGRATION, SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND
URBANIZATION

NAME-SANKAR ORAON

ROLL NO – 14

COURSE – MPS

PAPER CODE – C4
CALCULATION OF NET MIGRATION BY USING CENSUS SURVIVL
RATIO METHOD (CSR) OF MEGHALAYA STATE (MALE)
Age 2,001 2,011 Survival 2,001 Expected 2,011 Net
Group Males Males Ratio Males Population Males Migration
0-4 57119612 58632074 164343 205846 -781.57
5-9 66734833 66300466 170722 197585 -5597.78
10-14 65632877 69418835 1.215 161632 199729.99 193473 -6256.99
15-19 53939991 63982396 0.959 126857 163680.68 164716 1035.32
20-24 46321150 57584693 0.877 94446 141811.99 139140 -2671.99
25-29 41557546 51344208 0.952 87233 120752.19 124676 3923.81
30-34 37361916 44660674 0.964 74672 91060.39 95786 4725.61
35-39 36038727 42919381 1.033 78859 90091.61 87320 -2771.61
40-44 29878715 37545386 1.005 55573 75038.69 73377 -1661.69
45-49 24867886 32138114 0.892 48622 70323.78 63043 -7280.78
50-54 19851608 25843266 0.865 34715 48067.26 45910 -2157.26
55-59 13583022 19456012 0.782 22596 38040.64 30692 -7348.64
60-64/60+ 37768327 18701749 0.942 54016 32704.21 25421 -7283.21
65-69 12944326 0.953 21533.50 17482 -4051.50
70+ 1942597 0.051 2778.29 24036 21257.71

Methodology
To calculate the Net Male Migration of Meghalaya, I have used Indirect Migration Estimation
Technique using the Census Survival Ratio Method (CSR) wherein I have divided the India’s
male population in particular age group of the second census to the first census to obtain the
survival ratio of the India of that population and multiplied that survival ratio of the first age
group with the first population in 0-5 years of concerned state; Meghalaya to get the expected
population of Meghalaya of 10 -15 years and subtracted from the actual population of
Meghalaya to get the net migration in each age group except for the first two group and the last
group where we have considered the population above 60 as single unit and done the
calculation accordingly.
In the case of child migration in first two age group that is 0-4 and 5-9; we have calculated the
Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of first age group, we add female
population of 15-19 to 40-44 and then divide it by child population of 0-4. Then we add the net
migration in the 15 -19 to 40-44 population and then we multiply CWR, total net migration to
¼ to get the net migration of 0-4 age group population.
We have calculated the Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of second age
group, we add female population of 20-24 to 45-49 and then divide it by child population of 0-
4. Then we add the net migration in the 20-24 to 45-49 population and then we multiply CWR,
total net migration to ¾ to get the net migration of 5-9 age group population.
The out-migration in Meghalaya observed in the age groups of 0-14, 20-24, 35-69 and the in-
migration are observed 15-19, 25-34, 70+ mage groups.
 CALCULATION OF NET MIGRATION BY USING CENSUS SURVIVL
RATIO METHOD (CSR) OF MEGHALAYA STATE (FEMALE)

Age 2,001 2,011 Survival 2,001 Expected 2,011 Net

Group Females Females Ratio Females Population Females Migration
0-4 53327552 54174704 160223 200308 -760.55
5-9 61581957 60627660 166435 191597 -5428.13
10-14 59213981 63290377 1.187 157522 190156.38 189133 -1023.38
15-19 46275899 56544053 0.918 122923 152819.27 161472 8652.73
20-24 43442982 53839529 0.909 100741 143224.79 145872 2647.21
25-29 41864847 50069757 1.082 96904 133000.65 126605 -6395.65
30-34 36912128 43934277 1.011 73060 101880.28 93871 -8009.28
35-39 34535358 42221303 1.009 72220 97729.08 87386 -10343.08
40-44 25859582 34892726 0.945 47962 69063.01 72073 3009.99
45-49 22541090 30180213 0.874 42083 63112.56 60072 -3040.56
50-54 16735951 23225988 0.898 29072 43077.45 42833 -244.45
55-59 14070325 19690043 0.874 20521 36760.25 29417 -7343.25
60-64/60+ 38853994 18961958 1.133 51710 32938.79 25287 -7651.79
65-69 13510657 0.960 19704.75 18292 -1412.75
70+ 20304553 0.523 27022.92 28384 1361.08

Methodology
To calculate the Net Female Migration of Meghalaya, I have used Indirect Migration
Estimation Technique using the Census Survival Ratio Method (CSR) wherein I have
divided the India’s female population in particular age group of the second census to the first
census to obtain the survival ratio of the India of that population and multiplied that survival
ratio of the first age group with the first population in 0-5 years of concerned state; Meghalaya
to get the expected population of Meghalaya of 10 -15 years and subtracted from the actual
population of Meghalaya to get the net migration in each age group except for the first two
group and the last group where we have considered the population above 60 as single unit and
done the calculation accordingly.
In the case of child migration in first two age group that is 0-4 and 5-9; we have calculated the
Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of first age group, we add female
population of 15-19 to 40-44 and then divide it by child population of 0-4. Then we add the net
migration in the 15 -19 to 40-44 population and then we multiply CWR, total net migration to
¼ to get the net migration of 0-4 age group population.
We have calculated the Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of second age
group, we add female population of 20-24 to 45-49 and then divide it by child population of 0-
4. Then we add the net migration in the 20-24 to 45-49 population and then we multiply CWR,
total net migration to ¾ to get the net migration of 5-9 age group population.
The female out-migration are observed in the age groups of 0-14, 25-39, 50-69; and in-
migration are observed in 15-24, 40-44 and 70+ age groups.
 CALCULATION OF NET MIGRATION BY USING LIFE TABLE
SURVIVL RATIO METHOD (LTSR) OF MEGHALAYA STATE
(MALE)
Survival Survival
Age nLx
nLx Ratio Ratio Average Male Expected Actual Net
Group 2001
2011 (2011) (2001) (2001) (2011) (2011) Migration
0-4 478474 0.99 462529 0.97 0.98 164343 205846 -1395.41
5-9 475123 0.99 452739 0.99 0.99 170722 197585 -6428.57
10-14 473321 0.99 449860 0.99 0.99 161632 161207.31 193473 32265.69
15-19 471328 0.98 447138 0.98 0.98 126857 168984.15 164716 -4268.155
20-24 468211 0.98 443364 0.98 0.98 94446 159592.52 139140 -20452.52
25-29 464113 0.97 438432 0.97 0.97 87233 124651.06 124676 24.93605
30-34 459066 0.97 432297 0.96 0.96 74672 92344.90 95786 3441.103
35-39 452249 0.95 424548 0.95 0.95 78859 84736.82 87320 2583.178
40-44 443117 0.93 414766 0.93 0.93 55573 71860.77 73377 1516.23
45-49 430615 0.90 401959 0.89 0.90 48622 74874.90 63043 -11831.9
50-54 412966 0.66 383898 0.65 0.66 133923 51614.38 45910 -5704.378
55-59 387540 358245 43546.26 30692 -12854.26
60+ 2E+06 1483170 88151.95 97631 9479.046
50+ 3E+06 2269027

Methodology
Here, to calculate net migration I have used the Life Table Survival Method (LTSR); in this
I divided the population of male in succeeding age group to preceding age group to get the
survival ratio of the first age group for the first census; and then we do the same thing in the
case of the second census and we take the average of these two survival ratios to get the actual
survivorship ratio of the country and then we multiply it to the state population; in this case
Meghalaya’s population of preceding census of 2001 to get the expected population of
Meghalaya’s male in 2011 and we subtract it from the actual population of Meghalaya of
2011 in each age group to get the net migration in each age group.
In the case of child migration in first two age group that is 0-4 and 5-9; we have calculated the
Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of first age group, we add female
population of 15-19 to 40-44 and then divide it by child population of 0-4. Then we add the net
migration in the 15 -19 to 40-44 population and then we multiply CWR, total net migration to
¼ to get the net migration of 0-4 age group population.
We have calculated the Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of second age
group we add female population of 20-24 to 45-49 and then divide it by child population of 0-
4. Then we add the net migration in the 20-24 to 45-49 population and then we multiply CWR,
total net migration to ¾ to get the net migration of 5-9 age group population.
The male out-migration are observed in the age groups 0-9, 15-24, 45-59 age groups and in-
migration are observed 10-14, 25-39 and 60+ age groups.
 CALCULATION OF NET MIGRATION BY USING LIFE TABLE
SURVIVL RATIO METHOD (LTSR) OF MEGHALAYA STATE
(FEMALE)

Age Surviv
nLx al nLx Surviva Average Females Expected Actual Net
Group
(2011) Ratio (2001) l Ratio (2001) (2011) (2011) Migration
0-4 476577 0.99 455950 0.96 0.97 160223 200308 -1357.90
5-9 472287 0.99 440960 0.99 0.99 166435 191597 -6233.90
10-14 470565 0.99 438003 0.98 0.99 157522 156059.07 189133 33073.93
15-19 468619 0.99 434996 0.98 0.98 122923 164663.17 161472 -3191.17
20-24 465670 0.99 430520 0.98 0.98 100741 155357.12 145872 -9485.12
25-29 462438 0.98 425572 0.97 0.98 96904 120780.80 126605 5824.20
30-34 459121 0.98 420400 0.97 0.98 73060 98848.58 93871 -4977.58
35-39 455225 0.97 414886 0.97 0.97 72220 94931.64 87386 -7545.64
40-44 450039 0.96 408850 0.95 0.96 47962 71333.77 72073 739.23
45-49 442969 0.93 401050 0.93 0.93 42083 70043.58 60072 -9971.58
50-54 431537 0.69 389899 0.69 0.69 121824 45864.53 42833 -3031.53
55-59 413919 372607 39210.80 29417 -9793.80
60+ 1940550 1725048 83752.71 71963 -11789.71
50+ 2815056 2515997

Methodology
Here, to calculate net migration I have used the Life Table Survival Method (LTSR); in this
I divided the population of female in succeeding age group to preceding age group to get the
survival ratio of the first age group for the first census; and then we do the same thing in the
case of the second census and we take the average of these two survival ratios to get the actual
survivorship ratio of the country and then we multiply it to the state population; in this case
Meghalaya’s population of preceding census of 2001 to get the expected population of
Meghalaya’s female in 2011 and we subtract it from the actual population of Meghalaya of
2011 in each age group to get the net migration in each age group.
In the case of child migration in first two age group that is 0-4 and 5-9; we have calculated the
Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of first age group, we add female
population of 15-19 to 40-44 and then divide it by child population of 0-4. Then we add the net
migration in the 15 -19 to 40-44 population and then we multiply CWR, total net migration to
¼ to get the net migration of 0-4 age group population.
We have calculated the Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of second age
group we add female population of 20-24 to 45-49 and then divide it by child population of 0-
4. Then we add the net migration in the 20-24 to 45-49 population and then we multiply CWR,
total net migration to ¾ to get the net migration of 5-9 age group population.
The female out-migration are found in the age groups of 0-9, 15-24, 30-39, 45-60 and in-
migration are found in 10-14, 25-29, 40-44 age groups.
Interpretation:
Migration is a common phenomenon in developing country like India as well as
the state of Meghalaya. North-East India has experienced two massive
immigration waves in historical period of time. At the time of independence of
India and formation of Bangladesh, Meghalaya also has experienced a significant
proportion of immigration from Bangladesh.
An analysis on the dynamics of populations flow of Nepalis and Bangladeshis
in to Meghalaya that because of the push and full factors, outmigration has
became and increasingly important factor foe livelihood and government strategy
in Nepal and Bangladesh.
There is various factors which influence the migration pattern in Meghalaya. It
shares 423 km border with Bangladesh in the south and the west and is surrounded
by Assam on the north-eastern side and Nepal is also near to this state.
The push factors which influence peoples to move out from this place which are
Illegal Migrant, Political Unrest, Famine, Poverty, Fear of persecution, and
Environmental degradation due to coal mining. The pull factors which
influence peoples to come this state which are Better economic opportunities,
Peaceful environments.
The coal mines in Jaintia Hills and west Khasi Hills have become the catchment
areas for these migrants. This is because these areas have fluid borders with
assam, Tripura and Bangladesh availability of economic opportunities, the
consequences high level 0f integration and cultural assimilation with the local
indigenous communities and the availability of social networks facilitating the
migration process.
Jaintia Hills and west Khasi Hills coal mines attract surrounding Nepalese and
Bangladeshi to work in their mining sector that’s why most of labourer 20-40 age
group males with their family in-migrant in this mining sector. Not only labourer
but also business man and army and others are came and settled there because of
better economic opportunities.
But from 2001 it is observed that because of large numbers of migrants are came
and settled their and it harm local tribal peoples. Because of this most the tribals
start out-migrating with their families in the age group 0-14 age group male and
0-14 age group female surrounding states like Assam, Arunachal Pradesh etc.
 CALCULATION OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION BY USING LIFE
TABLE SURVIVL RATIO METHOD (LTSR) IN INDIA (MALE)
Age nLx Surviv nLx Survi Averag Males Expected Actual Net
Group (2011) al (2001) val e (2001) (2011) (2011) Migration
Ratio Ratio
0-4 478474 0.99 462529 0.97 0.98 56029759 58632074 -154857.34
5-9 475123 0.99 452739 0.99 0.99 66055513 66300466 -371481.21
10-14 473321 0.99 449860 0.99 0.99 64804718 56029759 69418835 13389075.77
15-19 471328 0.98 447138 0.98 0.98 53002020 66055513 63982396 -2073117.39
20-24 468211 0.98 443364 0.98 0.98 45290661 64804718 57584693 -7220024.95
25-29 464113 0.97 438432 0.97 0.97 40368374 53002020 51344208 -1657812.13
30-34 459066 0.97 432297 0.96 0.96 35955325 45290661 44660674 -629987.36
35-39 452249 0.95 424548 0.95 0.95 34217985 40368374 42919381 2551007.02
40-44 443117 0.93 414766 0.93 0.93 27750370 35955325 37545386 1590060.57
45-49 430615 0.90 401959 0.89 0.90 22271881 34217985 32138114 -2079870.65
50-54 412966 0.66 383898 0.65 0.66 13066897 27750370 25843266 -1907103.52
55-59 387540 358245 22271881 19456012 -2815868.93
60+ 1658129 1483170 13066897 51071872 38004975.05
50+ 2501710 2269027

Methodology
Here, to calculate net migration I have used the Life Table Survival Method (LTSR); in this
I divided the population of male in succeeding age group to preceding age group to get the
survival ratio of the first age group for the first census; and then we do the same thing in the
case of the second census and we take the average of these two survival ratios to get the actual
survivorship ratio of the country and then we multiply it to the India’s population; in this case
India’s population of preceding census of 2001 to get the expected population of India’s male
in 2011 and we subtract it from the actual population of India of 2011 in each age group to
get the net migration in each age group.
In the case of child migration in first two age group that is 0-4 and 5-9; we have calculated the
Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of first age group, we add female
population of 15-19 to 40-44 and then divide it by child population of 0-4. Then we add the net
migration in the 15 -19 to 40-44 population and then we multiply CWR, total net migration to
¼ to get the net migration of 0-4 age group population.
We have calculated the Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of second age
group we add female population of 20-24 to 45-49 and then divide it by child population of 0-
4. Then we add the net migration in the 20-24 to 45-49 population and then we multiply CWR,
total net migration to ¾ to get the net migration of 5-9 age group population.
The out-migrants are found in the age group of 0-9, 15-34, 45-59 and in-migrants are found
10-14, 35-44 and 60+ age groups.
 CALCULATION OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION BY USING LIFE
TABLE SURVIVL RATIO METHOD (LTSR) IN INDIA (FEMALE)

Age nLx Surviv nLx Surviv Averag Female Expected Actual Net
Group (2011) al (2001) al e (2001) (2011) (2011) Migration
Ratio Ratio
0-4 476577 0.99 455950 0.96 0.97 53327552 54174704 -143084.67
5-9 472287 0.99 440960 0.99 0.99 61581957 60627660 -339696.51
10-14 470565 0.99 438003 0.98 0.99 59213981 51941656 63290377 11348720.95
15-19 468619 0.99 434996 0.98 0.98 46275899 60926371 56544053 -4382317.87
20-24 465670 0.99 430520 0.98 0.98 43442982 58400181 53839529 -4560652.16
25-29 462438 0.98 425572 0.97 0.98 41864847 45469440 50069757 4600317.03
30-34 459121 0.98 420400 0.97 0.98 36912128 42626904 43934277 1307372.82
35-39 455225 0.97 414886 0.97 0.97 34535358 41012740 42221303 1208562.66
40-44 450039 0.96 408850 0.95 0.96 25859582 36039985 34892726 -1147258.63
45-49 442969 0.93 401050 0.93 0.93 22541090 33494603 30180213 -3314389.69
50-54 431537 0.69 389899 0.69 0.69 69660270 24728691 23225988 -1502703.34
55-59 413919 372607 21002643 19690043 -1312600.24
60+ 1940550 1725048 47890698 52777168 4886469.62
50+ 2815056 2515997

Methodology
Here, to calculate net migration I have used the Life Table Survival Method (LTSR); in this
I divided the population of female in succeeding age group to preceding age group to get the
survival ratio of the first age group for the first census; and then we do the same thing in the
case of the second census and we take the average of these two survival ratios to get the actual
survivorship ratio of the country and then we multiply it to the India’s population; in this case
India’s population of preceding census of 2001 to get the expected population of India’s male
in 2011 and we subtract it from the actual population of India of 2011 in each age group to
get the net migration in each age group.
In the case of child migration in first two age group that is 0-4 and 5-9; we have calculated the
Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of first age group, we add female
population of 15-19 to 40-44 and then divide it by child population of 0-4. Then we add the net
migration in the 15 -19 to 40-44 population and then we multiply CWR, total net migration to
¼ to get the net migration of 0-4 age group population.
We have calculated the Child Woman Ratio (CWR) for each age group; in case of
second age group we add female population of 20-24 to 45-49 and then divide it by child
population of 0-4. Then we add the net migration in the 20-24 to 45-49 population and then we
multiply CWR, total net migration to ¾ to get the net migration of 5-9 age group population.
The male outmigrants are found in the age groups of 0-9, 15-24, 40-59 and in-migrants
are found in the age groups of 10-14, 25-39, 60+ age groups.