MARKET DRIVERS

• The Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Uganda for the 12 months to October 2022 increased to 10.7%, compared to
10.0% registered for the year ended September 2022. This was mainly driven by the increase in prices of commodities under Core
Inflation that increased to 8.9% in the year ending October 2022, compared to 8.1% registered in the year ended September 2022.

• The increase in Annual Core Inflation is mainly attributed to Annual Other Goods Inflation that increased to 12.7% in the year ending
October 2022, compared to 11.2% registered in the year ended September 2022. Particularly, Maize flour inflation increased to 91.5% in
October 2022 compared to 60.2% in September 2022 and Rice inflation increased to 43.3% in October 2022 compared to 32.2% in
September 2022. However, Annual Services Inflation registered 4.4 % in the year ending October 2022, compared to 4.5% registered in
the year ended September 2022.

• The increase in Annual Food Crops and Related Items Inflation was mainly due to Annual ‘Vegetables, cooking bananas and pulses’
Inflation that increased to 33.8% for the 12 months to October 2022, compared to 30.3% registered in September 2022. Specifically,
Matooke (bunch) Inflation increased to 75.4% in October 2022, compared to 59.8% in September 2022.

• The Annual Energy Fuel and Utilities (EFU) Inflation registered at 15.2% for the 12 months to October 2022, compared to 18.7%
registered in the year ended September 2022. This was mainly due to Annual Liquid Energy Fuels Inflation that registered 42.1% in the
year ending October 2022 compared to 50.6% registered in the year ended September 2022. Specifically, Annual Petrol inflation
registered 45.6% in October 2022, compared to 55.3% in September 2022.
 EQUITIES
• (USE) – Uganda’s All Share Index (ALSI) in the tenth month of the year increased by 0.21% from 1254.97 in October to 1257.55 as the Local share index
decreased by 0.63% from 273.24 in October to 271.52 generating a total market turnover of UGX 6,829,710,686 ($ 1,773,950.83). The top movers were
Stanbic Bank Uganda (SBU) that traded 55.8 million shares and electricity distributor, UMEME that traded 7.56 million shares. The main gaining and losing
counters were CQCIL (CIPLA) whose share price increased by 5.52% from UGX 65.00 to UGX 68.59 and MTNU (MTN UGANDA) whose share price decreased
by 1.64% from UGX 185.24 to UGX 182.21.

• (DSE) – Total turnover at the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) fell for a second straight week due to low participation of foreign investors in trading
activities. second week’s turnover fell by 65.5% when only TSh 623.3 million($ 268,000) was realised from TSh 1.8 billion($ 774,000) of the preceding
week. The TSh1.8 billion($ 744,000) which was recorded during the first week of October was also a decline from TSh2.97 billion ($ 1.28 million) that was
registered during the last week of September. Analysts say slowdown in trading activities signals that investors were playing the wait-and-see approach as
they wait for the release of third quarter financial results of listed companies.

• (NSE) — Kenyan President William Ruto plans to sell shares in as many as 10 state-owned companies, in what could be the first main-market listings on the
nation’s bourse in more than three years. Ruto, who’s been in office for less than a month, wants initial public offerings to happen within 12 months. The
sales and a proposal Ruto announced to introduce domestic dollar-denominated bonds are part of his plan to diversify fund-raising sources, as interest-
rate hikes in developed countries cause investors to abandon emerging and frontier markets. Credit Bank Ltd. and Bio Food Products Ltd. are in the process
of preparing for listings, Ruto said. He encouraged other private companies to follow suit.

• (NGX) — The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) closed negative amidst buy-interests and sell-offs, as bears dominated proceedings, weighing down the broad
market by 253 basis points. The All-share Index (ASI) depreciated by 2.53% to close at 46,365.95 points. In the same vein, Market Capitalization declined
by N665 billion ($ 1.5 billion) to close at N25.25 trillion ($ 57 billion), while the Year-to-Date (YTD) returns settled at 8.54%. Meanwhile, the stock market
has advanced by 3,649.51 base points since the start of the year. The SWOOTs capitalization closed negative, driven by changes in AIRTELAFRI at the end of
the trading session.
 FIXED INCOME
• Uganda – In October’s Secondary Market trading, the short-term papers’ (T-bills) Yield-To-Maturity (YTM) appreciated averagely by 4.20% [420 bps]
having the best performer as the twelve-month bill (5.3%) that increased from 14.506 to 15.313. The long-term papers’ YTM appreciated averagely by
3.5% [350 bps] having the best performer as the 5-year bond (5.10%) that increased from 16.547 to 17.431. This same 5 year bond was auctioned at a
coupon of 14.125% on the 7th of September 2022 at a re-opening.

• Kenya – sold its short-dated instruments at a higher weighted average rate. In contrast to some of the previous auctions, demand was strong for the 91-
and 364-day instruments, although the 182-day T-bill again proved to be quite unpopular. Demand was concentrated at the tight end and taking
advantage of the stronger appetite, Kenya opted to allocate nearly all bids for the 91-day instrument, allowing the marginal rate to inch higher to 9.139%
from 9.127%. The 182-day T-bill was sold at a weighted rate of 9.691%, up from a previous yield of 9.678%. An over-allocation on the 364-day instrument
allowed Kenya to raise KSh39.5bn against an auction target of KSh24bn at this week's sale. The 364-day T-bill was sold at a weighted yield of 10.109%, up
from 9.965% at the previous sale. Borrowing costs on short-dated securities have increased substantially since the beginning of the year owing to
inflationary and fiscal pressures. In January, the yield on the 91-day instrument stood at around 7.2% while the weighted rates on the 182- and 364-day
instruments were anchored around 8.0% and 9.4%, respectively.

• Rwanda – sold its short-dated instruments on Thursday, with the weighted average rate on the 28-day instrument - the most popular instrument on
auction - easing to 6.417% from 6.600% at the previous sale in September as demand jumped. In turn, the 91-day T-bill was sold at 7.139%, down from
7.194% at last week's auction. The 182-day instrument secured a weighted rate of 8.087%, a touch lower from the yield of 8.100% in September. The 364-
day T-bill, in turn, held steady at 8.500%.

• Zambia – Zambia sold Treasury bonds at its monthly auction on October 28, with the yield on the 9.0% 2-year instrument unchanged from the previous
month at 17.50% while the weighted rate on the 10.0% 3-year T-bond stood at a steady 22.00%. In turn, the 11.0% 5-year -, 12.0% 7-year - and 13.0% 10-
year paper were sold at a respective 24.00% (unchanged), 25.40% (from 24.49%), and 27.64% (unchanged). The longest-dated instrument on offer, the
14.0% 15-year tenor, was sold at a weighted rate of 27.75%, similar to the previous month's yield.
CURRENCIES, COMMODITIES & ALTERNATIVES
• Uganda – The Ugandan shilling over the past month appreciated in value by 0.26% against the US dollar from UGX 3834.50 to UGX
3785. The currency pair throughout the month of October had a high of 3785, a low of 3834.50 and an average of 3,810.25.

• West Africa – For a number of African countries, the shelter provided by a peg to the euro is eroding as dollar dominance weigh on debt
servicing burdens and imported inflation. Forecasts are that the euro-dollar cross at $0.98/€ at end-2022, with the pair remaining below
parity until Q4 2023. From an end-2023 projection of $1.0/€, expected a modest but steady appreciation in the euro exchange rate to
end 2024 at $1.04/€ and 2025 at $1.08/€. Underpinning these projections are our assumptions that the US terminal rate of 4.375% will
be reached in Q4 2022.

• South Africa – The rand has played defence against a strong dollar to push the South African unit deeper into undervalued territory,
according to our valuation metrics. We estimate that the rand is trading around 11%-12% undervalued to long-run equilibrium amid
global stagflation worries and heightened policy uncertainty in advanced economies. Our baseline foresees the rand ending this year at
R18.1/$ to take the full-year average to R16.47/$. We also assume another 75-bps rate increase at the Sarb's November convention,
which will lift the repo rate to 7.0%.

• Crypto – In October, the performance of digital and traditional assets was mixed. Ethereum was one of the best performers of the
month with an 18.4% return, while BTC rose 5.49% after breaking a $20,000 resistance level. Not all fared well, however, with ADA and
SOL experiencing negative results of 6.71% and 0.93%. Monthly volatility saw a sharp decline in October, recording a yearly low volatility
for most cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin recorded a monthly volatility of 32.2%, a figure that was lower than the S&P500 and NASDAQ’s
recorded volatility for the same period.
INDUSTRY COMPARISONS
Ending 31st October 2022
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
No. Counter Share Price Market Cap ($ BN) Dividend Yield (%) P/E Ratio Ex-Dividend date Payment date
1MTN Uganda UGX 185 1.12 7.93 12.4 26-Aug-22 30-Sep-22
2Safaricom Kenya KES 29.95 8.96 5.27 14.37 02-Aug-22 31-Aug-22
3MTN Nigeria NGN 200.10 11.75 8.97 15.17 07-Apr-22 28-Apr-22
4MTN SA ZAR 13909 18.39 2.03 19.97 30-Mar-22 04-Apr-22
5Airtel Africa GBP 158.80 6.79 2.7 11.58 23-Jun-22 22-Jul-22

UTILITIES
No. Counter Share Price Market Cap ($ BN) Dividend Yield (%) P/E Ratio Ex-Dividend date Payment date
1UMEME Uganda UGX 190 0.19 22.5 2.8 22-Jun-22 22-Jul-22
2KEGN Kenya KES 3.49 0.19 8.62 17.53 17-Dec-21 10-Feb-22

BANKING
No. Counter Share Price Market Cap ($ BN) Dividend Yield (%) P/E Ratio Ex-Dividend date Payment date
1BOBU Uganda UGX 85 0.06 23.5 2.33 19-Jul-22 04-Aug & 07-Nov
2SBU Uganda UGX 20.97 0.30 9.53 4.37 04-Jul-22 25-Jul-22
3SCBK Kenya KES 133 0.4 15.35 5.14 28-Apr-22
4ABSA Kenya KES 11.05 0.51 10.05 5.25 26-Apr-22 26-May-22
5DCB Tanzania TZS 180 0.15 0 10.75 0 0
6CRDB Tanzania TZS 390 0.45 8.57 6.11 03-Jun-22 13-Jun-22
VALUATIONS AND YIELDS
Ending 31st October 2022
INDEX 1 Month YTD 1 Month
MARKETS INDEX NAME MARKETS BOND NAME PRICE YTD Returns
LEVEL Returns Returns Returns
Botswana BGSMAC Index 7,546.49 1.96% ▲ 7.16% ▲ Egypt Egypt 10-Year 18.31 0.00% ▲ 22.94% ▲
BRVM ICXCOMP Index 201.50 -1.86% ▼ -0.15% ▼ Kenya Kenya 10-Year 13.87 1.17% ▲ 8.11% ▲
Egypt EGX30 Index 11,372.79 15.72% ▲ -5.57% ▼ Morocco Morocco 10-Year 3.00 10.42% ▲ 37.19% ▲
Kenya NSEASI Index 128.80 0.30% ▲ -25.00% ▼ Namibia Namibia 10-Year 11.83 -3.20% ▼ 2.83% ▲
Mauritius SEMDEX Index 2,056.07 -2.81% ▼ -2.44% ▼ Nigeria Nigeria 10-Year 14.80 10.97% ▲ 17.36% ▲
Morocco MOSENEW Index 10,822.58 -10.15% ▼ -19.70% ▼ South Africa ZA 10-Year 10.81 -0.69% ▼ 14.94% ▲
Nigeria NGXINDX Index 43,839.08 -10.84% ▼ -0.03% ▼ Uganda Uganda 10-Year 18.88 8.36% ▲ 21.32% ▲
Rwanda RSEASI Index 147.53 -0.04% ▼ 1.53% ▲ USA US 10-Year 4.05 5.77% ▲ 129.46% ▲
South Africa JALSH Index 66,671.65 4.49% ▲ -0.86% ▼ China China 10-Year 2.67 -4.03% ▼ -5.42% ▼
Tanzania DARSDSEI Index 1,876.34 0.36% ▲ -1.89% ▼ Russia Russia 10-Year 9.85 -4.18% ▼ 16.71% ▲
Tunisia TUSISE Index 8,222.50 -1.19% ▼ 17.72% ▲ Australia Australia 10-Year 3.80 -4.48% ▼ 106.92% ▲
Uganda UGSINDX Index 1,257.55 0.21% ▲ -11.63% ▼ Britain Britain 10-Year 3.46 -15.60% ▼ 192.97% ▲
Zambia LUSEIDX Index 7,233.54 -1.52% ▼ 15.67% ▲ Germany Germany 10-Year 2.12 0.71% ▲ -7424.14% ▼
Zimbabwe ZHIALLSH Index 15,072.14 2.03% ▲ 37.96% ▲ Japan Japan 10-Year 0.25 2.04% ▲ 101.61% ▲
PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
Equities Ending 31st October 2022
PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
Equities Ending 31st October 2022
PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
Bonds Ending 31st October 2022
PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
Currencies & Commodities Ending 31st October 2022
PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
Currencies & Commodities Ending 31st October 2022
DISCLAIMER
I. This content may not be modified, sold or otherwise provided, in whole or in part, to any other person or entity without SBG Securities (Uganda)
Limited's prior written permission. Information contained herein has been obtained from a range of third-party sources.
II. While the information is reliable, SBG Securities (U) Ltd has sought to verify it independently. As such, SBG Securities (U) Ltd makes no
representations or warranties as to the accuracy of the information presented and takes no responsibility or liability (including for indirect,
consequential or incidental damages) for any error, omission or inaccuracy in the data supplied by any third party.
III. SBG Securities (U) Ltd does not provide tax or legal advice. You should contact your tax advisor, accountant and/or attorney before making any
decisions with tax or legal implications.
IV. This does not constitute an offer to purchase or sell any securities. The findings, ratings and/or opinions expressed herein are the intellectual
property of SBG Securities (U) Ltd and are subject to change without notice. They are not intended to convey any guarantees as to the future
performance of the investment products, asset classes or capital markets discussed.
V. This does not contain investment advice relating to your particular circumstances. No investment decision should be made based on this
information without first obtaining appropriate professional advice and considering your circumstances. SBG Securities (U) Ltd provides
recommendations based on the particular client's circumstances, investment objectives and needs. As such, investment results will vary, and actual
results may differ materially.
VI. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the amount you
have invested. Investments denominated in a foreign currency will fluctuate with the value of the currency. Certain investments, such as securities
issued by small capitalization, foreign and emerging market issuers, real property, and illiquid, leveraged or high-yield funds, carry additional risks
that should be considered before choosing an investment manager or making an investment decision.