Integrated Intelligent Research (IIR) International Journal of Data Mining Techniques and Applications

Volume: 02 Issue: 02 December 2013 Page No.64-66

ISSN: 2278-2419

An Interval Based Fuzzy Multiple Expert System

to Analyze the Impacts of Climate Change on
Indian Agriculture
A.Victor Devadoss1 and D.Ajay2
1
Head & Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics, Loyola College, Chennai-34.
2
Ph.D Research Scholar, Department of Mathematics, Loyola College, Chennai-34.
Email: hanivictor@ymail.com,dajaypravin@gmail.com

Abstract - Indian agriculture is completely dependent on the
environment and any undesirable change in the environment
has an adverse impact on agriculture. Climate change and
pollution in India have caused great damage to the
environment. In this paper we analyse the impact of climate
change on Indian agriculture. The first section gives an
introduction to the problem. In section two we introduce a new
fuzzy tool called interval based fuzzy multiple expert system.
Section three adapt the new fuzzy tool to analyse the problem
of agricultural impacts of climate change and in section four
we give the results and suggestions based on our analysis.
Keywords - Climate change, Fuzzy expert system, interval-
based expert system, Fuzzy associative memories, Indian
agriculture, global warming, green house gas emission,
farming system, biosecurity of crops.
amount of uncertainty in each causal relationship. We propose
an interval based multiple fuzzy experts system which can
process any number of opinions of experts at the same time
and whose matrix entries are fuzzy intervals. The theoretical
framework for the model proposed is first explained and then
we enumerate the opinion of the experts in matrices from
which we arrive at the interval based multiple expert system
matrixes. A fuzzy set is a map μ: X → [0, 1] where X is any set
called the domain and [0, 1] the range. That is to every element
x X, μ assigns membership value in the interval [0, 1]. Fuzzy
theorists often picture membership functions as two-
dimensional graphs with the domain X represented as a one-
dimensional axis.
The geometry of fuzzy sets involves both domain

I. INTRODUCTION and the range [0, 1] of mappings μ: X →

[0, 1]. A fuzzy subset equals the unit hyper cube .

Indian agriculture is rich in diversity of soils, climate, farming
systems, and resource endowments but at the same time it is The fuzzy set is a point in the cube . Vertices of the cube
vulnerable to many factors such as policies, trade, pollution
define a non-fuzzy set. Now within the unit hyper cube
and changes in the environment. Its vulnerability is more
exposed by the number of crises it has undergone, and most we are interested in distance between points,
parts of it are human-made. As the report M.S.Swaminathan which led to measures of size and fuzziness of a fuzzy set and
committee states the growth rate of agriculture was about 2% more fundamentally to a measure. Thus within cube theory
during the IX Plan period and is slated to decline to 1.8% per directly extends to the continuous case when the space X is a
annum during the X Plan. Climate change has also played a
role in deepening the crisis. Adverse changes in the subset of . The next step is to consider mappings between
environment have affected the stability of the farming systems fuzzy cubes. A fuzzy set defines a point in a cube. A fuzzy
and biodiversity on which agriculture is dependent. A number system defines a mapping between cubes. A fuzzy system S
of new diseases which affect crops have been observed which maps fuzzy sets to fuzzy sets. Thus a fuzzy system S is a
make seeds vulnerable to pests. Farmers are caught in a vicious transformation . The n-dimensional unit hyper
circle between these diseases and the use of pesticides which cube In houses all the fuzzy subsets of the domain space or
affects the health of the soil of their farmland. Farming in
India is supplemented by farm animals the farmers have. input universe of discourse . houses all
Research has shown that these animals suffer a genetic change the fuzzy subsets of the range space or output universe of
and their resources and livelihood have also been affected by
climate change. discourse, . X and Y can also denote
subsets of and .
II. INTERVAL BASED MULTIPLE FUZZY
EXPERT SYSTEM
Then the fuzzy power sets and replace
Fuzzy expert systems work on the opinion of the experts which
are expressed as fuzzy values ranging from 0 and 1. In neural and . In general a fuzzy system S maps families of fuzzy
networks based fuzzy expert systems, the expert opinion on the sets to families of fuzzy sets thus
causal relationship between the neurons of a neuron field or . Here too we can extend
between neurons of two different neuron fields are expressed the definition of a fuzzy system to allow arbitrary products or
as a matrix whose entries are fuzzy values representing the arbitrary mathematical spaces to serve as the domain or range
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Integrated Intelligent Research (IIR) International Journal of Data Mining Techniques and Applications
Volume: 02 Issue: 02 December 2013 Page No.64-66
ISSN: 2278-2419
spaces of the fuzzy sets. We shall focus on fuzzy system Defuzzification of the resultant vector can be done by setting
that map balls of fuzzy sets in to balls of the threshold .
fuzzy set in .Consider a system of k matrices If , it is ON state.
, where If , it is in OFF state.
and which represent opinions of
k experts about causal relationship between nodes. Then the III. ADAPTATION OF CFAM TO THE PROBLEM
combined interval based multiple expert system matrix is given
by We take the following attributes given by the experts which
arerelated with the effects of climate change as nodes of the
domain space:

C1 -Migration of species
C2 -Glacier and snowpack decline
C3 -Sea level rise
C4 -Species extinction
C5 -Rise in average temperature
where and for C6 -Spread of new diseases
all i and j. C7 -Weather disasters such as floods and droughts
Let be the initial input vector such C8 -Higher concentrations of ground level ozone
C9 -Decrease in fresh water availability
that each . Then C10 -Failure of monsoon
The following are the attributes related with agriculture which
we take as nodes of the range space:
G1 -Agricultural productivity
G2 -Profitability
Now G3 -Stability of farming systems
The fuzzy intervals in the resultant row matrix can be reduced G4 -Health of the farmers
to fuzzy values by finding the centres of each interval using the G5 -Nutrition content in agricultural produce
formula G6 -Biosecurity of crops, farm animals, fish and forest trees
G7 -Ground and surface water
G8 -Making seeds vulnerable to pests
G9 -Economic sustainability of farming systems
Therefore .
G10 -Soil health
G11 -Animal genetic

The interval based multiple expert matrix is obtained from the opinions of eight experts as explained above and is given by the
following matrix:

Let X be the initial input vector given by the experts.

↪(0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1)

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Integrated Intelligent Research (IIR)
It can be observed that for the given input vector four attributes
namely, Rise in average temperature, Weather disasters,
Decrease in fresh water availability and Failure of monsoon,
turn into ON state. These four attributes play pivotal role in
destabilizing agriculture. In general it means that the effects of
climate change do have an impact on agriculture.
International Journal of Data Mining Techniques and Applications
Volume: 02 Issue: 02 December 2013 Page No.64-66
ISSN: 2278-2419
[18] Vasantha Kandasamy W.B, et al., Fuzzy Interval Matrices, Neutrosophic
Interval Matrices and their Applications, Hexis, Phoenix, Arizona 2006.
[19] Zadeh L.A., Fuzzy Sets, Information and Control 8, 338-353, 1965.
[20] Zimmermann H.J., Fuzzy Set theory and its Applicarions, Kluwer
Academic, Dordrecht, 1991.

IV. CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS

Rise in average temperature has an adverse impact on

agriculture. Observations since 1961 show that the average
temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at
least 3000m and that the ocean has been taking up over 80% of
the heat being added to the climate system. This is mainly due
to emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). The government
should take steps to curb emission of GHGs. Immediate steps
should be taken to protect groundwater as the amount of fresh
water available is finite and has seen a decline in the past
decades. Industries which pollute ground water and surface
water bodies should be stopped and should be under the
maintenance of the government. Indian agriculture is
completely dependent of monsoon; any failure in monsoon
results in a loss for the farmers and an increase in hunger and
poverty in the country. Effective and modern monsoon
prediction technology should be adopted and the farmers
should be informed of monsoon prior as there is lot of variation
and uncertainty. Water survey should be conducted in all
agricultural areas and government-owned public irrigation
methods should be introduced.

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