Hydrological Extreme

Hydrological extremes alter detrital pools in IRES by altering the quantity and quality
of organic matter and the microbial communities responsible for detrital processing
(Romaní et al., 2012;

From: Intermittent Rivers and Ephemeral Streams, 2017

Related terms:

Rainfall, Drought, Groundwater, Hydrology, Karst, Limnology, Microbiology

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Large-Scale Exploratory Analysis of the

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Cli-
mate Projections
Vitali Diaz, ... José R. Pérez, in Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Hydrological
Events, 2019

Abstract
Extreme hydrological events (EHEs), such as droughts and floods, vary spatially and
temporally in nature. The increase in the number of events in the last few decades
has motivated the research of the spatiotemporal variability of the future extreme
precipitation and temperature. To study the consequences on the EHEs due to the
uncertainty of projected climate changes, the analysis in more detail of precipitation
and temperature, in space and time, is vital. In addition, for proper planning and
decision-making process to address EHEs, understanding such climate changes
requires more information. In this chapter we present a summarized assessment of
the spatiotemporal variations of climate projections. A simplified way to aggregate
global data is used for the spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation and tempera-
ture. To carry out this analysis, the Spatio-TempoRal distribution and Interannual
VarIability of projections (STRIVIng) toolbox is proposed for statistical exploratory
analysis of climate projections. Three large-scale applications were carried out for
illustration: Dominican Republic (48,670 km2), Mexico (1,972,550 km2), and Amazon
basin (6,171,148.7 km2). The methodology and toolbox presented here allow regions
to be identified where the changes are expected to be more severe on precipitation
and temperature, as well as months in which those changes are likely to occur. The
STRIVIng toolbox is open source and helps to provide basic information to increase
the interpretations and research in the space–time analysis of extremes.

> Read full chapter

Vulnerability of Food Resources to Cli-

mate
A.L. Renaud, M.R. Tuinstra, in Climate Vulnerability, 2013

2.05.3.2 Tolerance to Flooding and Submergence

With the increased potential for heavier rainfall and hydrological extremes, agricul-
tural areas are susceptible to flooding and ponding. Plant breeders are identifying
and developing genetic technologies to enhance crop productivity under these
conditions as well (King 2004).

The best examples of success in breeding for crop tolerance to flooding are found
in rice. Most rice cultivars cannot tolerate flooding for more than 1 week (Inter-
national Rice Research Institute 2012). However, breeders at the International Rice
Research Institute (IRRI) identified a class of ethylene-response-factor-like genes
that contribute to flooding tolerance in an Indian rice variety. Three genes, Sub1A,
Sub1B, and Sub1C, were found to contribute to flooding tolerance. Of these genes,
Sub1A was the most important factor contributing to submergence tolerance. Phys-
iological studies showed that rice varieties with Sub1A-1 overproduce the plant hor-
mone ethylene when submerged. Ethylene accumulation delays cytokine-mediated
senescence and promotes dormancy during submergence. Rice varieties containing
Sub1A-1 have exhibited a 1–3-ton yield advantage compared with controls following
a 10–15-day submergence period. Several important varieties with submergence
tolerance have been released, including Swarna Sub1 in India, Samba Mahsuri in
Bangladesh, and IR64-Sub1 in the Philippines (Kenong et al. 2006; International Rice
Research Institute 2012; Jung et al. 2010).

> Read full chapter

Vulnerability of Food Resources to Cli-
mate
F. Booker, in Climate Vulnerability, 2013

2.02.4 Drought
Studies have concluded that there is an increasing occurrence of hydrological ex-
tremes and variability (refs). There are studies that conclude, based on top-down
global multi-decadal model predictions, that the future climate is expected to have
higher moisture content (Meehl et al. 2007). The increase in water-holding capacity
of the atmosphere would likely increase the frequency of heavy precipitation events,
as extreme precipitation is constrained by the atmospheric moisture content (Meehl
et al. 2007). There is also a trend for increasing dry periods between rainfall events,
although models are less consistent about this (Meehl et al. 2011). There has been
a long-standing projection by climate models for increased summer drying in the
mid-latitudes, with an associated increased probability of drought (Meehl et al.
2007; Dai 2011). Soybean-producing regions in the United States could experience
decreased precipitation ranging from 5 to 10% during summer months by the end
of this century (Figure 1) (Christensen et al. 2007). Aridity is projected to increase in
soybean-growing regions in the Americas (except northeast Argentina and Uruguay)
and Southeast Asia due to the effects of regional warming attributable at least in part
to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (Dai 2011). Global crop net primary
production decreases by 10% with the climate expected with the SRES A2 emission
scenario by 2050 due to regional precipitation declines, higher temperatures that
lead to higher crop water limitation, and direct crop damage (Rost et al. 2009). Ele-
vated CO2 offsets these negative effects, but the magnitude of the effect is uncertain.
Increased moisture content of atmosphere would dampen the effect of warming on
vapor pressure deficit, which increases exponentially with temperature and drives
transpirational water loss from plants, but some increase in evapotranspiration may
occur nonetheless. However, simulation studies may have overestimated the impact
of high temperature on crop water use by not accounting for increases in vapor
pressure (Sinclair 2011).

Soybean yield, like many crops, is highly sensitive to water availability, which is
mainly determined by precipitation and temperature (Purcell and Specht 2004; Pe-
nalba et al. 2007). Interannual variability of soybean yields in Argentina was generally
accompanied by interannual variability in seasonal precipitation (Penalba et al. 2007).
Higher rainfall anomalies during the maturity-harvest period had a negative impact
on yield, possibly related to disease, flooding and failed harvests (Penalba et al. 2007).
Seed yield (Y) has been shown to be related to plant traits and physiology in
water-limited environments through the following relationship:

where T is the amount of water transpired, WUE is the water use efficiency, and HI
is the harvest index (Purcell and Specht 2004). In this relationship, T refers to the total
quantity of water transpired by the plant from emergence to physiological maturity.
Production WUE refers the relative amount of shoot biomass or seed produced per
unit of water transpired. At the physiological level, WUE is defined as the ratio of
net photosynthesis to transpiration, also referred to as transpiration efficiency. HI
refers to the ratio of grain mass to total shoot mass. Plant traits that increase any
of the factors in the above equation have the potential to increase plant yield under
water stress conditions (Purcell and Specht 2004).

Studies have focused on a number of genetic, physiological, morphological, and

developmental and management approaches to increasing soybean drought toler-
ance (Purcell and Specht 2004). Yield can be increased in water-limited environments
by increasing transpiration. This has been successfully accomplished with the ESPS
that is utilized in the mid-south region of the United States (Heatherly and Elmore
2004). Yield losses due to dry, hot late-season conditions in Arkansas, Mississippi,
Louisiana, and Texas have been reduced by planting in the spring when precipitation
sufficient for crop growth is more likely and cooler temperatures decrease evapo-
rative demand. Early maturing soybean cultivars are used to better match phenology
with available water (Purcell and Specht 2004). Minimum tillage and cover crops are
also used to increase soil organic matter, which can increase soil volumetric water
content and help conserve soil moisture (Purcell and Specht 2004). Deeper rooting
assisted by osmotic adjustment of roots to maintain cell turgor, when tissue water
potential declines, has promising potential for improving transpiration and yield as
well (Purcell and Specht 2004). Improved tolerance to aluminum, which is found
in toxic concentrations in lower soil horizons, has been associated with drought
tolerance in a slow-wilting genotype. Tolerance to aluminum was correlated with the
concentration of citrate in root tips, suggesting that citrate release was involved in
aluminum exclusion in tolerant genotypes (Silva et al. 2001). Breeding and genetic
modification for this trait may be beneficial.

Improved WUE is expected to occur with increasing atmospheric concentrations of

CO2 because net photosynthesis is higher and transpiration is lower due to reduced
stomatal conductance (Allen and Boote 2000). Both factors would contribute to yield
increases in soybean. However, reduced transpirational cooling leads to higher leaf
temperatures and leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficits, which increases transpiration
and respiration, thus decreasing net crop biomass gain. Water stress increased leaf
temperature and leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit in soybean plants (Allen et al.
1994). Management practices employed in ESPS also increase WUE by growing
plants when evaporative demand and VPD are decreased by cooler temperatures
(Purcell and Specht 2004).

The most sensitive component of soybean biology to drought stress may be nitrogen
fixation by symbiotic Bradyrhizobium japonicum bacteria in root nodules (Purcell
and Specht 2004; Sinclair et al. 2010). Nitrogen fixation is more sensitive to water
deficit than many other processes, including photosynthesis, biomass production,
transpiration, and nitrogen uptake from the soil (Purcell and Specht 2004). Increased
concentrations of nitrogen compounds (ureides) in water-stressed plants suggested
that nitrogen fixation is inhibited by feedback regulation of nitrogenase activity in
the nodule (Serraj and Sinclair 2003). Factors that decrease nitrogen supply to soy-
bean invariably impact seed yield because the high protein concentration of soybean
grain requires a large amount of nitrogen. Prolonging nitrogen fixation during water
stress could prevent premature senescence and improve HI, thereby increasing yield
(Sinclair et al. 2010). This is a particularly attractive trait for improvement.

> Read full chapter

Mountain and Hillslope Geomorpholo-

gy
R. Worni, ... M. Jaboyedoff, in Treatise on Geomorphology, 2013

7.28.3.1 Energy-Line-Based Models

A model that has been widely applied to mass flows and hydrological extreme events
is the modified single flow (MSF) model developed by Huggel et al. (2003). In this
model, the downslope-moving mass is largely controlled by gravitational forces,
following the given topography. To simulate the downslope flow, a hydrological
flow-routing algorithm is applied, which transfers flow sequentially to lower areas.
In such model types, typically single or multiple flow direction concepts are used
(O'Callaghan and Mark, 1984; Quinn et al., 1991; Tarboton, 1997) to determine the
direction and extension of flow. The central flow line of the flow is assumed to follow
the direction of steepest descent as calculated by a single-flow direction algorithm.
A modification of the algorithm allows lateral flow spreading (diverging flow) as
observed in nature. Such models have been developed and applied not only to glacial
lake outburst floods (Huggel et al., 2003), alpine and volcanic debris flows (Huggel et
al., 2008; Schneider et al., 2008), but also to rock, ice, and snow avalanches (Noetzli
et al., 2006; Gruber, 2007; Huggel et al., 2007).
A probability function defines that the more the flow diverts from the steepest
descent direction, the greater is the resistance and, accordingly, the lower the
probability that this area is affected. In the model result, a color range represents
the different probabilities. The travel distance of the modeled mass flow is controlled
by an empirical approach applying a minimum average slope (e.g., Haeberli, 1983;
Rickenmann and Zimmermann, 1993), below which the flow stops. An advantage
of such models is the limited amount of required input information, the fast
computation, its integration in geographic information system (GIS) environments,
and the potential application over large areas. The level of resulting information
generally corresponds best with the objectives of rapid first-order assessments.

In Figure 2, an application of the MSF model is shown for a glacier lake outburst flood
(GLOF) in the Swiss Alps (Valais) that occurred in June 2001 and caused damage in
the order of 15 million USD.

Figure 2. Simulation of the 25 June 2001 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) at Täsch,
Valais (Swiss Alps). The GLOF resulted from an overflow of Weingarten glacier lake.
The resulting debris flow caused damages of around $15 million USD at Täsch.
Applied is the MSF model (Huggel et al., 2003), a hydrological model based on
the energy-line concept (see text for further explanation). Colors indicate relative
probabilities that a certain point is affected by the GLOF, with increasing probability
from green to red. Image composition: F Paul and C Huggel.

A similar program as the MSF model is the Flow-R model, which was developed
for susceptibility assessment of debris flows at a regional scale (Horton et al.,
2008). It provides a quick assessment of the potential source areas and aims to
delimit the zone tending to be in the path of the flow propagation by means of a
probability-spreading algorithm. Its strengths are that few data are required and that
the user has full control. It can provide meaningful results with a DTM only; and all
data inputs, algorithms, and parameters are open to the user and can be changed.
The modeling can be divided into two distinct phases: the potential source area
identification and the assessment of the spreading. The source area identification is
a combination of data layers that can be either continuous information or discrete
zones. The DTM derivatives allow taking into account the terrain morphology, as
slope and curvature, and basic hydrology by means of the flow accumulation. Criteria
are defined to classify every pixel of every layer as susceptible, excluded, or ignored.
The layers are then combined to result in potential sources with a given release
probability. The spreading area estimations are based on a probabilistic spreading
by means of flow direction algorithms on the one hand, and, on the other hand, on
a basic energy balance, which allow defining the maximal runout distance (Horton
et al., 2008).

Among various flow direction algorithms, the one defined by Holmgren (1994) is
commonly chosen as it can reproduce the behavior of almost every other algorithm
because of its exponent. In combination with this algorithm, a notion of inertia
influences the spreading (Gamma, 2000). Basic energy-line algorithms are used
to assess the runout distance. This constraint defines if a cell can be reached by
the debris flow or if the actual energy of the flow portion is insufficient. The
slope-angle-concept, friction model is used to assess the energy balance, which
is extended with an option of velocity maximum threshold, making it nonlinear.
This permits taking into account the maximum velocity of debris flow as the limit,
inducing internal energy dissipation. The turbulent models are also included in
Flow-R.

As a concrete example of the model Flow-R, the catchment north of Guido's curve
is presented. This area is located along National Road 7 in Argentina, in the Frontal
Cordillera of the Mendoza Province, and presents signs of debris flow activity (Figure
3). The erosion of highly altered granite produces abundant sandy material that can
be mobilized. In January 2005, this material combined with heavy rainfall triggered
debris flows that hit a car. Even if there are few data and information, the 2005 event
was adequately simulated with a calibration based on field survey. The study of the
levees in the curves and of the fan deposits allowed estimating on the debris flow
velocities and the friction loss angle.
Figure 3. Debris flow runout computation with FLOW-R in a catchment north of
Guido's curve, Mendoza Province, Argentina. Parameters: DTM 30 m, 15° friction
loss, limited velocity 10 m s−1 and direction algorithm of Holmgren (1994) with an
exponent 4. Quickbird satellite imagery 2006.Photography: E Lavandaio. Adapted
from Wick, E., Baumann, V., Favre-Bulle, G., Jaboyedoff, M., Loye, A., Marengo, H.,
Rosas, M., 2010. Flujos de detritos recientes en la cordillera frontal de Mendoza: un
ejemplo de riesgo natural en la ruta 7. Revista de la Asociación Geológica Argentina
66, 460–465.

> Read full chapter

Next Generation Biomonitoring: Part 1

Christian Perennou, ... Ilse R. Geijzendorffer, in Advances in Ecological Research,
2018

4.2 Detecting Long-Term Changes When Flooding Extent

Varies Interannually
Seasonal wetlands under dry climates (e.g. chotts and sebkhas) pose a particular
challenge due to their extreme hydrological variability. Under such climates, rainfall
is erratic and unpredictable, and so is the resulting extent of flooding in these
typically large wetlands (see example of Chott Ech-Chergui above, Fig. 9). Comparing
two maps at a 15–20 years interval may result, by chance alone, in comparing a
very dry vs a relatively wet year—or the reverse—and a superficial analysis would
conclude to a large increase (or conversely, decrease) in the flooding extent in a given
site.

Detecting accurate long-term trends in wetland flooding remains an important

issue, given the increasing human (e.g. MWO, 2012a) and climate (Giorgi and
Lionello, 2008) pressure on freshwater in arid areas. One way to address this issue is
to consider that trends in flooding regimes can only be assessed by using multiple
seasonal maps over several years (e.g. the GSW produced by Pekel et al. (2016)
and covering 32 years from 1984 to 2015). Although this approach is more time
consuming, it will likely provide higher accuracy in trend estimations.

RS methods could also potentially borrow from ecological methods which aim
to identify trends despite having very noisy data, e.g., occupancy or abundance
modelling and other demographic modelling techniques.

> Read full chapter

Geomorphology of Human Distur-

bances, Climate Change, and Natural
Hazards
G. Benito, in Treatise on Geomorphology, 2013

13.15.4.1 Flood Response to Climate Variability

Recent advances in climate change science have not been accompanied by equiv-
alent attention to impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes. Current
knowledge on how floods might respond to climate change is highly uncertain
(Trenberth et al., 2007). Long series of stream gauge data do not show a clear
climate-related trend in flooding during the twentieth century (Kundzewicz et al.,
2007). Additionally, the downscaling necessary to establish hydrological impacts
cannot be adequately achieved using existing instrumental hydrological records at
contemporary timescales. It may be necessary to build extended flood records using
paleoflood reconstructions as a way to improve understanding of flood response
over century-scale climate shifts (Knox, 1993; Ely, 1997).

Climate affects flooding across a wide spectrum of spatial and temporal scales (Red-
mond et al., 2002). Analysis of long instrumental and paleoflood records has revealed
that subtle variations in the atmospheric circulation affect primarily the largest floods
(Knox, 2000). Knox (1983) examined an instrumental record extending back to 1860
for the Mississippi River and identified four periods of different prevailing global
atmospheric circulation patterns, that is, zonal and meridional circulation modes.
He computed separate estimates of flood probability for each period and showed
that the occurrence of large rare floods (50-year flood and higher) is more sensitive
to the atmospheric circulation pattern than the occurrence of smaller, more frequent
floods (2-year floods).

Temporal analysis of annual floods and peaks-over-threshold series have shown

cyclic or clustered flood occurrences within instrumental (Robson et al., 1998), his-
torical (Machado et al., 2011), and paleoflood records (Ely et al., 1993; Thorndycraft
and Benito, 2006). Flood clusters are ascribed to changing atmospheric circulation
patterns modulated by climate variability at decadal and secular time scales (Enzel,
1992). A Holocene sedimentary record in Spain indicated a high flood frequency
and magnitude at 10 750–10 240, 9550–9130, 4820–4440, 2865–2350, 960–790,
and 520–290 cal BP (Figure 5 shows the last 4000 years; Benito et al., 2008). A
period of increased flooding by Iberian Atlantic rivers between AD 1000 and 1200
is also apparent in written documentary records (Benito et al., 2003b), and has been
associated with unusually wet winters during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (Benito
et al., 2003a). The largest historical floods since AD 1500 (Benito et al., 2008) occurred
when the North Atlantic Oscillation during the winter months was in its negative
phase, as reconstructed by Luterbacher et al. (2002).

Figure 5. Summed probability plots of radiocarbon-dated samples collected from

slackwater flood deposits (red line) and floodplain deposits (blue area) from 13 rivers
in Spain. Modified from Benito, G., Thorndycraft, V.R., Rico, M., Sánchez-Moya,
Y., Sopeña, A., 2008. Palaeoflood and floodplain records from Spain: evidence for
long-term climate variability and environmental changes. Geomorphology 101,
68–77. The bottom bar shows overlapping periods of slackwater and floodplain
deposition (diagonal line pattern dipping left on green background), exclusively
slackwater flood date clusters (red colour), exclusively floodplain deposition (diag-
onal line pattern dipping right on blue background), and periods with minor or lack
of fluvial activity (white rectangles). Radiocarbon dates from aggraded floodplain
sediments are clustered at 2710–2320, 2000–1830, and 910–500 cal BP. The first
cluster period is in phase with the timing of slackwater deposition, whereas the
third (910–500 cal BP) occurs in between two periods of increased flood frequency
and likely reflects the first post-Roman evidence of environmental change related to
generalized land-use changes at the catchment scale.

Pall et al. (2011) argue that global warming is contributing to increased flood risk
in the UK, although no gauge-based evidence has been found for a climate-related
trend in the magnitude or the frequency of floods during the past several decades
(Rosenzweig et al., 2007). Paleoflood records provide evidence of rare, large floods
that are commonly larger than those recorded by stream gauges (Enzel et al., 1993).
In September 2002, an extreme flood on the Gardon River in France claimed 22 lives
and caused damage worth millions of euros. The flood was produced by 680 mm of
rain in a 20-h period and was considered by both the media and the water authorities
to be ‘the largest flood on record.’ The flood's peak discharge was estimated to be
6000 m3 s−1; the next largest recorded historical flood, in 1890, had an estimated
discharge of 4500 m3 s−1. Sheffer et al. (2008) identified a rock shelter in the Gardon
River gorge that contained stratigraphic evidence of at least five floods larger than
the September 2002 event over the past 500 years. Documentary evidences suggest
that five floods, in AD 1403, 1604, 1741, 1768, and 1846, were probably the most
catastrophic ones (Lescure, 2004). Flood records in the Mediterranean over the
past 500 years reflect periods of intense climatic variability lasting 30–40 years
coinciding with frequent floods; the periods AD 1580–1620 and 1840–70 are notable
(Barriendos and Martín Vide, 1998).

> Read full chapter

Vulnerability of Water Resources to Cli-

mate
A.I. Shiklomanov, R.B. Lammers, in Climate Vulnerability, 2013

5.11.3.3 Extreme Discharge Variability

Maximum river discharge often results in flooding. Future climate model projections
suggest that the frequency and magnitude of extreme hydrological events, including
floods, would increase at high latitudes in response to climate change (IPCC 2007).
Shiklomanov et al. (2007) analyzed long-term variability in maximum daily spring
discharge for 139 small- and medium-sized Russian rivers (16–50 000 km2) with
minimal human impact. Trend analyses were applied to the magnitude and timing
of maximum spring discharge values over the periods 1960–2001, 1950–2001,
1940–2001, and 1930–2001 using both least squares linear regression and the more
robust, nonparametric Mann–Kendall test (Helsel and Hirsch 1992). All rivers had
clearly pronounced spring peaks in April–June.

Relative changes in spring maximum discharge for different periods are shown in
Figure 13. There are approximately the same number of gauges with both positive
and negative changes for all time periods. The number of gauges, with significant
positive and negative trends, are similar for 1960–2001 and 1930–2001, and there
are slightly more gauges with significant negative trends for 1950–2001 and
1940–2001. Overall, we find no widespread significant changes in trends of spring
maximum discharge across the Russian Arctic drainage basin. However, there are
several regions with common patterns in maximum discharge change. Significant
decreasing tendencies are noted across the south of central siberia and far east
(regions 2 and 4 in Figure 13). The change in spring maximum discharge in these
regions coincides with trends in cold season precipitation, which mostly generates
spring peak flow. The Lena River basin and North European Russia (regions 1 and
3 Figure 13) showed significant increases in maximum discharge. There was no
uniformity between changes in precipitation over the cold period and maximum
discharge. This discrepancy leads us to suspect that other factors were responsible
for discharge changes across these regions.
Figure 13. Relative changes in spring daily maximum discharge (%) (right panel) and
changes in precipitation over cold period (November to April, in millimeters) (left
panel). Blue circles and squares represent positive trends, red represents negative
trends, and green marks gauges with no change (less than ±5%). Crosses highlight
stations with significant trends (p < 0.05). Ovals encircle regions where analysis of
aggregated changes has been made. Colors of ovals reflect positive (blue) or negative
(red) changes over the given periods. The region identification numbers discussed
in the text are shown in the top left plot.Source: Shiklomanov, A. I., R. B. Lammers,
M. A. Rawlins, L. C. Smith, and T. M. Pavelsky, 2007: Temporal and spatial variations
in maximum river discharge from a new Russian data set. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.,
112, G04S53, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JG000352.

Maximum river discharge is usually associated with floods, which cause more
damage in Russia than any other natural disaster. We recognize, however, that
maximum water level, which results in out of bank flow does not always conjoin
with maximum discharge, owing to the backwater effects and ice damming in rivers.
Recent estimates of extreme water levels, to characterize the flood situation across
Russia, showed the greatest increase in water level peaks in south central siberia
and the far east (Shiklomanov 2008) where spring peak discharge is decreasing
(Shiklomanov et al. 2007). About 50% of river gauges in these regions showed
10–75% increase in maximum water level over 1981–2005, but the ice damming
was a main cause of extreme floods.

Minimum discharge is an important characteristic of water availability. Due to the

extreme seasonality, Arctic runoff is highly variable throughout the year and inspite
of relatively high annual runoff many rivers in high latitudes can dry out or freeze
over during certain periods creating difficulties for water supply. The minimum
discharge is most sensitive to groundwater and/or unsaturated zone water inputs
and its volume characterizes changes in subsurface water contributions to the river.
Smith et al. (2007) analyzed the same Russian time series as Shiklomanov et al.
(2007), discussed above, to examine daily discharge minima. They found that the
increases in minimum daily discharge were more abundant than the decreases,
leading them to suggest this as sole factor contributing to the overall rise in Russian
river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. There was no coherent spatial pattern to these
increases. However, Smith et al. (2007) acknowledged these increases in later years
in minimum flow involved a small number of gauges (n ≤ 10) with a very different
spatial distribution of gauges than the other time periods. As a result, they tested
the hypothesis of accelerating Arctic hydroclimatology by selecting a small subset of
data with very long records covering the period 1935–2002. They looked at monthly
anomalies in daily minimum discharge (Figure 14) and found increases in the
long-term records from approximately 1985 onwards for the months November to
April and for all months since 2000. Additionally, during the last few years of the
time series, 9 of 12 months showed magnitudes at or near record levels (Figure
14). Overall, they found no unique role for permafrost contributions to minimum
daily flow, yet the observed signal does suggest a ‘thawlike process’. This indicates
a much more complicated set of interactions between climate, evapotranspiration,
infiltration, thawing lakes, groundwater, and permafrost processes.
Figure 14. Monthly anomalies in minimum daily discharge expressed as a percent
of mean minimum daily discharge and averaged for 12 stations with predomi-
nantly complete records, 1935–2002. Substantial positive anomalies since ~1985
in November through March suggest unprecedented recent increases in winter
minimum flows for this subset of stations.Source: Smith, L. C., T. M. Pavelsky,
G. M. MacDonald, A. I. Shiklomanov, and R. B. Lammers, 2007: Rising minimum
daily flows in northern Eurasian rivers suggest a growing influence of ground-
water in the high-latitude water cycle. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 112, G04S47,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JG000327.

> Read full chapter

Reconnaissance Drought Index

Miklas Scholz, in Sustainable Water Treatment, 2019

2.2.1 Representative Case Study Region

The impacts of CC are universal in range and differ from one climatic zone to anoth-
er, and thus have important consequences on the extreme hydrological events and
water resources (Asadi Zarch et al., 2015). Since drought is commonly considered
as a local episode, the influences of CC on such events might vary through the
world. Therefore, it can be supposed that the drought occurrence and trends display
numerous configurations in various climatic conditions or arid regions. Although
all dry regions are relatively susceptible to droughts, the strength of each region
to the challenge of such an event is different. For example, within the same level
of drought severity, arid geographical regions are in a more vulnerable situation
compared to those with other climatic conditions such as humid areas. Accordingly,
for an accurate evaluation of CC effects on water resources, it would be necessary to
shape the overall outlines and trends of droughts within each region, which is the
main motivation for writing this chapter.

The main target of this investigation is to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of

drought phenomena in different climatic conditions all over the word. In order to
study the problem and achieve the main goal, meteorological data from 24 locations
that represent different climatic conditions and elevations all over the world have
been selected.

In addition, the LZRB has been chosen as a suitable case study to shed light
on semiarid regions (Table 2.1). The magnitude of problems plaguing the LZRB
has a great deal in common with other transboundary watersheds such as Rhine,
Volta, and Senegal, where the problems of shared water resources utilization in
a sustainable manner are expected to exacerbate under the collective impact of
uncertainty surrounding CC.

The Lower Zab River (Little Zab River or Lesser Zab River as well) is a key tributary
of the Tigris River and is located between latitudes 36°50 N and 35°20 N, and
longitudes 43°25 E and 45°50 E (Mohammed et al., 2017b) (Figs. 2.1A and 2.1B).
The Lower Zab River originates from the Zagros Mountains in Iran, and flows about
370 km south-east and south-west through north-western Iran and northern Iraq
before joining the Tigris near Fatha city, which is located about 220 km north of
Baghdad (Mohammed and Scholz, 2016; Mohammed et al., 2017a), with a total
length of approximately 302 km and about 80 km south of the Greater Zab River.
There are several tributaries contributing to the river discharge such as the Banah
and Qazlaga. The catchment area of the LZRB and its tributaries is approximately
20,605 km2 with nearly 76% of the basin located in Iraq.

Annual P along the river decreases from ≥1000 mm in the Iranian Zagros to <200
mm at the confluence with the River Tigris. Mean temperatures follow the same
gradient. The mountain valleys are usually subjected to colder winters than the
corresponding foothill areas. However, summers in the latter are usually hotter
(NOAA, 2009).

The basin covers a range of relatively large watersheds and a wide range of climatic
and hydrologic conditions. The upstream and downstream developments vary wide-
ly. This suggests a considerably wide range of uncertainties in CC impacts on water
resources availability. A severe drought over the basin was reported by Mohammed
et al. (2017b) during the water year 2007/2008 as a result of about 80% reduction
in P. The extended drought conditions seem to have had a disastrous impact on the
lives of the people in the country. The limited access to water has led among others
to the erosion of livelihoods and decrease in crop production.

> Read full chapter

A regional hourly maximum rainfall ex-

traction method for part of Upper Blue
Nile Basin, Ethiopia
Animut M. Alem, ... Assefa M. Melesse, in Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variabil-
ity, 2019

9.1 Introduction
Hydrologists involved in the design of hydraulic structures such as dams, bridges,
and culverts, need to accurately assess the frequency and magnitude of extreme
hydrological events (Knoesen and Smithers, 2009). Heavy rainfall over a short period
of time often causes damage to infrastructure and thus represents an economic
challenge as well as a threat to human safety (Dyrrdal et al., 2014). Common
problem in hydrological studies is the limited availability of data at appropriately fine
temporal and/or spatial resolution (Knoesen and Smithers, 2009). Note that in many
countries the number of rain gages providing hourly or sub-hourly resolution data
is smaller than the number of daily gages. The challenges are worse in developing
countries such as Ethiopia where the gauge networks are sparse and instruments are
non-recording. The majority of the gages are non-recording and the records from
gages are aggregated form of rainfall data, such as daily rainfall depth, where these
values do not provide the degree of resolution needed to estimate design flood.
This is due to the high cost of collecting and processing high resolution rainfall data
(Econopouly, 1987). As a result, other options to extract finer resolution of rainfall
data are needed. However, there are no such approaches available in the country to
extract this valuable data.

A conventional approach is to ascertain the design rainfall intensity (or design storm
hyetograph) from available intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves developed for
the region, and convert into a corresponding flood hydrograph using a rainfall
runoff model. Such procedure is followed in Ethiopian Road Authority (ERA) manual.
Another approach stated in the irrigation and drainage design (IDD) manual for
the design of small irrigation structures in Ethiopia estimates the maximum hourly
rainfall to be 50% of the daily rainfall for areas < 5 km2.

Different methods have been proposed in the literature to obtain fine temporal
scale rainfall data from a coarser scale as a daily to sub-daily level, through rainfall
disaggregation. The first and the easiest way of disaggregation is uniform distri-
bution technique. The uniform distribution method disaggregates daily rainfall by
assuming that the hourly rainfall intensity distribution is constant throughout the
day. A second way of disaggregation method is robust and parsimonious regional
disaggregation method (Maréchal and Holman, 2004). This is a regional rainfall
disaggregation method from daily to hourly intensities which is presented for the
entire United Kingdom, and was developed for use with regionalized hydrological
and water quality models. The approach is based on the inter-dependence of the
hourly rainfall intensities during a rainfall event.

Another approach of daily rainfall disaggregation method is developed by Connolly

et al. (1998). The model simulates the number of events on a rainy day, such
as starting time, duration, rainfall amount, and time to peak intensity and peak
intensity of each event. In addition, many stochastic models have been developed
such as Random Cascade Models based on scale invariance theory (Güntner et al.,
2001), the Bartlett Lewis or Neyman Scott rectangular pulse models based on point
process theory (Uggioni et al., 2011), method of fragments (MOF) (Wey, 2006),
HYTOS rainfall disaggregation method (Hanaish et al., 2011), and multivariate
rainfall disaggregation model (Koutsoyiannis et al., 2003).

However in Ethiopia there are no such methods applied to disaggregate the daily
time scale rainfall in to sub-hourly finer resolutions while this finer resolution
records are vital for water resource facilities design and development. Hence, this
chapter is based on a study designed to develop regional maximum hourly rainfall
extraction method to fill the gap in this area. The study carried out the extraction of
hourly maximum rainfall from daily maximum rainfall. The method was developed
in such a way that the ratio of hourly maximum rainfall to daily maximum rainfall
follows a specific probabilistic distribution and was modeled with site-specific para-
meters. The modeled ratio is then reprocessed further for hourly maximum rainfall
extraction.

> Read full chapter

Temperature forecasting from electro-

magnetic data
Viacheslav V. Spichak, in Computational Geo-Electromagnetics, 2020

12.3.3 Effect of the geology and hydrological conditions

The boreholes and MT sites used in this study are located in regions with diverse
geological and hydrological conditions. Experience shows that local geological het-
erogeneities and extreme hydrological conditions between the temperature estima-
tion point and MT site whose data are used for this assessment (faulting, lateral
2-D or 3-D geological inhomogeneities, cold meteoric water flows) negatively affect
the estimation errors. The right side of Table 12.1 indicates the presence (“plus”)
or absence (“minus”) of these factors in each case. Additionally, too big (more than
2 km) distance between the MT site and location of the temperature estimation was
considered as a potential risk factor.

As it is seen from Table 12.1, in the cases when the borehole and MT site are located
on opposite sides of a tectonic thrust fault (T1-MT550, T5-MT620, T16-MT543) the
temperature forecast in the locations of boreholes based on the electrical conductivi-
ty profiles at the respective sites results in quite big errors. Similarly, the temperature
forecast error greatly increase due to the presence of local zones with a thick (about
 200 m) crust layer penetrated by cold water flows that forms an anomalous negative
temperature gradient (T13-MT529) (Lesik, 1988).

In this connection it is interesting to compare the results for the pairs T1-MT550 and
T14-MT550. The first pair is characterized by presence of the intermediate fault and
spacing of 2.17 km, while the spacing in the second pair is 4.97 km. The temperature
forecast errors are inversely proportional to the spacing. Similar effect is observed
also for the pairs T5-MT620 (presence of the fault) and T5-MT627. The temperature
estimation errors carried out in such areas by ANN using only the temperature data
are also quite big.

Thus, comparative analysis of the temperature estimation errors in Table 12.1, which

clearly shows that accuracy of the temperature forecast in the interwell space is controlled
by four factors: faulting in the space between the place where the temperature profile
is estimated and related MT site; spacing between them; meteoric and groundwater
flows; and local geological medium heterogeneity (though, the latter factor being less
restrictive, if appropriate EM inversion tools are used). We conclude that estimation
errors depend on the presence of specific geological features between the temper-
ature estimation point and the EM site whose data are used for the estimation. So,
prior knowledge of the geology and hydrological conditions in the region under
study can help to correctly locate the EM sites with respect to the locations where
the temperature is to be predicted and thereby reduce the estimation errors. It is
remarkable, that elimination from Table 12.1 of pairs, where at least one of the
above-mentioned negative factors takes place reduces the average relative error of
the temperature estimation from 11.9% to only 1.0%.

> Read full chapter

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