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J8-New Expanding Resources of Endovascular Thrombectomy - An Optimization Model
J8-New Expanding Resources of Endovascular Thrombectomy - An Optimization Model
ScienceDirect
Original Article
a
Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, National Tsing Hua University,
Hsinchu, Taiwan
b
Department of Emergency Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital Yun-Lin Branch, Yun-Lin
County, Taiwan
c
Stroke Center and Department of Neurology, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
d
Department of Medical Imaging, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
e
Department of Emergency Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
Received 22 April 2020; received in revised form 3 June 2021; accepted 15 July 2021
KEYWORDS Background/Purpose: Recently optimized models for selecting the locations of hospitals
Stroke; capable of providing endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) did not consider the accuracy of the
Emergency medical prehospital stroke scale assessment and possibility of secondary transport. Our study aimed
service; to propose a new model for selecting existing hospitals with intravenous thrombolysis capa-
Endovascular bility to become EVT-capable hospitals.
thrombectomy; Methods: A sequential order was provided to upgrade hospitals providing intravenous thrombo-
Resource lysis, using a mixed integer programming model based on current medical resource allocation.
redistribution In addition, we drafted a centralized plan to redistribute existing EVT resources by redetermin-
ing locations of EVT-capable hospitals. Using historical data of 7679 on-scene patients with sus-
pected stroke, the model was implemented to determine the hospital that maximizes the
number of patients receiving EVT treatment within call-to-definitive-treatment time.
Results: All suspected stroke patients were sent to EVT-capable hospitals directly under the
current medical resource allocation model. After upgrading one additional hospital to become
an EVT-capable hospital, the percentage of patients receiving definitive treatment within the
standard call-to-definitive-treatment time was elevated from 68.82% to 72.97%. In the model,
assuming that there is no hospital providing EVT, all patients suspected of stroke will be sent to
* Corresponding author. Department of Emergency Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, No. 7 Chung Shan South Rd., Taipei 100,
Taiwan. Fax: þ886 2 2322 3150.
** Corresponding author. Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, National Tsing Hua University, No. 101,
Section 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan. Fax: þ886 3 572 2204.
E-mail addresses: erdrmjhsieh@gmail.com (M.-J. Hsieh), yclee@ie.nthu.edu.tw (Y.-C. Lee).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfma.2021.07.015
0929-6646/Copyright ª 2021, Formosan Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC. This is an open access article under the CC
BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Journal of the Formosan Medical Association 121 (2022) 978e985
EVT-capable hospitals directly after upgrading three or more hospitals to be able to provide
treatment.
Conclusion: All patients eligible for acute stroke treatment are sent to EVT-capable hospitals
in the simulation under the current medical resource allocation model. This model can be uti-
lized to provide insights for capacity redistribution in other regions.
Copyright ª 2021, Formosan Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC. This is an
open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
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C.-H. Wang, T.-Y. Liu, W.-C. Chiang et al.
optimal hospital with respect to location. The most optimal 2.1.2. Parameters
hospital was defined in terms of enabling the largest in-
crease in the number of patients who were able to receive
the definitive treatment within a specific time period,
among all of the existing hospitals in the planning area.
Solving the model multiple times gives a sequence of hos- pu u˛U the probability that patient u
pital upgrade recommendations. The call-to-definitive- has a suspected stroke yet the
treatment time may be the time spent sending a patient cause of stroke is other than
to an EVT-capable hospital directly and giving EVT/rt-PA, to LVO
a rt-PA hospital and giving rt-PA, or initially to a rt-PA hos- 1 pu u˛U the probability that patient u
pital then transferring to a EVT-capable hospital and giving was with LVO
EVT. Since the conjecture about whether a patient is Su u˛U response time for the
suffering from LVO based on the on-scene stroke scale ambulance to reach the site of
assessment is uncertain, this study proposed to compute the the patient u plus on-scene
expected call-to-definitive-treatment time associated with time
an estimated probability distribution of having a LVO based Ti;u u˛U; i˛HWC transport time from getting
on the same prehospital stroke scale. We describe the no- patient u to hospital i
tations of the mathematical optimization model below (see Gc;u u˛U; c˛C the shortest transport time
Fig. 1). from getting the patient u to
its nearest hospital in HWfcg
2.1.1. Sets Gc;u u˛U; c˛C the shortest transport time
from getting patient u to its
nearest hospital in Cyfcg
Q processing time for a hospital
to perform a test
H set of EVT-capable hospitals
Tc c˛C the shortest secondary
C set of rt-PA hospitals
transport time from hospital c
U set of patients
to its nearest EVT-capable
hospital
Tbc;q c˛C; q˛Cyfcg the shortest secondary
This study used past patient data to form the set U. It is transport time from hospital q
also possible to simulate the random occurrence of the ðq scÞ to its nearest EVT-
requests for emergency medical service (EMS) by drawing a capable hospital including
set of patient locations following some probability distri- hospital c
bution. In the later method of forming the set U, the A administration time of hospital
occurrence of these patients being at corresponding sites is transfer
assumed with equal chances.
Figure 1 The decision-making process until a patient receives definitive treatment. EVT: endovascular thrombectomy; rt-PA:
recombinant tissue plasminogen activator.
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Journal of the Formosan Medical Association 121 (2022) 978e985
in time Z receiving definitive treatment (rt-PA/EVT) within the standard call-to-definitive-treatment time (rt-PA: 1.5 h/EVT: 3 h). EVT: endovascular thrombectomy; rt-PA: re-
(continued )
(0.00%)
(0.00%)
(0.00%)
(0.00%)
(5.34%)
Du u˛U waiting time for patient u to
410
0
0
receive treatment after a test
J
CTDu u˛U call-to-definitive-treatment
Number (percentage) of suspected patients who receive definitive treatment in individual hospital
(10.46%)
time for patient u
(0.00%)
(0.00%)
(9.12%)
(8.73%)
U threshold
803
700
670
M a large number
0
I
(0.00%)
(8.36%)
(8.36%)
(8.36%)
(8.35%)
642
642
642
641
H
0
2.1.3. Variables
(12.00%)
(12.05%)
(0.00%)
(0.00%)
(0.00%)
921
925
u˛U; i˛HWC
G
Xi;u the auxiliary evacuation decision.
0
1Z if patient u is sent to hospital i
(14.64%)
(14.35%)
from the scene; 0Z otherwise.
(9.08%)
(9.06%)
(4.48%)
Yu u˛U 1Z if patient u is expected to
1124
1102
697
696
344
receive treatment in specific call-
F
to-definitive-treatment time CTDu
minutes for the type of stroke
The result of hospital expansion for endovascular thrombectomy resource redistribution (scenario 1).
(18.22%)
(18.22%)
(17.40%)
(13.02%)
(13.01%)
patient u after receiving the call;
1399
1399
1336
1000
999
0Z otherwise.
E
Zc c˛C 1 Z if hospital c enables the EVT
capacity; 0Z otherwise.
(16.07%)
(8.01%)
(7.37%)
(7.38%)
(7.37%)
1234
615
566
567
566
D
(10.86%)
(10.89%)
(10.89%)
(10.89%)
fashion that maximizes the number of past/simulated pa-
tients who are expected to be covered within a specific
834
834
836
836
836
period of time and minimizes the total expected call-to-
C
(27.40%)
(26.36%)
(20.14%)
(19.77%)
ness sake, the model and its technical description are
2104
2104
2024
1546
1518
shown in Supplementary Material.
B
(12.79%)
(10.08%)
(10.03%)
(10.02%)
982
774
770
769
A
(68.82%)
(72.97%)
(75.27%)
(77.10%)
(77.27%)
in timea
model.
5284
5603
5779
5920
5933
G
H
capable hospitals.
ABCDEFH
hospitals
capable
ABCDEF
ABCDEF
Current
EVT-
had three, 1319 had two, and 2322 had one positive CPSS
a
10
6
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C.-H. Wang, T.-Y. Liu, W.-C. Chiang et al.
following the finding in the study by Scheitz et al.,17 at Under hospital H upgraded, among all patients, 1 patient
0.690, 0.735, and 0.761 respectively. The study was originally sent to hospital A, 619 patients originally sent to
approved by the institutional review board of the National hospital D, and 22 patients originally sent to hospital F are
Taiwan University Hospital. sent to hospital G instead. Fig. 2 shows the patients dis-
The mathematical optimization program was imple- tribution in the districtb, which are the most affected areas
mented with AMPL, which stands for A Modeling Language in Taipei when hospital H is upgraded. The receiving hos-
for Mathematical Programming. AMPL is an interface pitals are not affected elsewhere.
integrating a modeling language very similar to its mathe- Besides upgrading rt-PA hospitals based on current
matical notations and a variety of solvers.18 We used the medical resource allocation, we redistribute EVT resources
IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio (CPLEX), which is an so that hospitals providing EVT are appropriately-allocated
optimization solver initially developed by ILOG, LLC and in Taipei. Under the assumption that there is no hospital
then became part of the International Business Machines providing EVT treatment, EVT resources are added to a
Corporation for solving the integer programming problem.19 hospital providing rt-PA one by one and the result is shown
The CPU time to solve the model for an optimal solution is in Table 2. In the first upgrade, the model recommends
206 s on average for the instance of Taipei City on a per- upgrading hospital B. Hospital B is located in the area
sonal computer with Intel Core (TM) i5-6500 CPU @ where the most stroke cases occur, hence 7576 (98.67%)
3.20 GHz and 16G RAM. suspected stroke patients will be sent to hospital B for
treatment. Other suspected stroke patients, such as pa-
tients living in the eastern and southern parts of Taipei, will
3. Results be sent to the rt-PA hospitals on the first occasion. Among
these patients, there are 100 suspected patients sent to
According to the six-year data and the approach for esti- hospital A and 2 suspected stroke patients sent to hospital
mation of probabilities in Scheitz et al.,17 the outcome of G. After upgrading three or more hospitals to EVT-capable
the EVT Capacity Expansion Model recommends upgrading hospitals, all suspected patients will be sent to EVT-
the rt-PA hospital H to become an EVT-capable hospital capable hospitals directly (Table 2).
(Table 1). In the past set of 7,678, a total of 5603 suspected If hospitals A, B, E, F, H, I all become new EVT-capable
stroke patients (which are 319 more than before expan- hospitals, all suspected stroke patients will be sent to the
sion), would be able to receive definitive treatment within EVT-capable hospital directly, and 71.61% of them are able
the standard call-to-definitive-treatment time (Table 1), to receive definitive treatment within the standard call-to-
with the percentage elevated from 68.82% to 72.97%. definitive-treatment time.
In the Monte Carlo simulation, all patients with sus- When all hospitals are expanded with the EVT re-
pected stroke are sent to an EVT-capable hospital directly, sources, there are 769 suspected stroke patients sent to
including one upgraded rt-PA hospital (hospital H), ac- hospital A, 1518 suspected stroke patients sent to hospital
cording to the proposed model. There are 982 suspected B, 836 suspected stroke patients sent to hospital C, 566
stroke patients sent to hospital A, 2104 suspected stroke suspected stroke patients sent to hospital D, 999 sus-
patients sent to hospital B, 834 suspected stroke patients pected stroke patients sent to hospital E, 344 suspected
sent to hospital C, 615 suspected stroke patients sent to stroke patients sent to hospital F, 925 suspected stroke
hospital D, 1399 suspected stroke patients sent to hospital patients sent to hospital G, 641 suspected stroke patients
E, 1102 suspected stroke patients sent to hospital F, and sent to hospital H, 670 suspected stroke patients sent to
642 suspected stroke patients sent to the upgraded hospital hospital I, and 410 suspected stroke patients sent to hos-
H, which is shown in Table 1. pital J. Among all of them, 5933 (77.27%) patients are able
Figure 2 The distribution of patients and their receiving hospitals at present (left panel) vs. after the suggested upgrade of
hospital H (right panel) in the most affected district b. Each dot corresponds to the site of a patient. The color of the dot represents
the hospital receiving that patient.
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Table 2 The result of hospital expansion for endovascular thrombectomy resource redistribution (scenario 2).
Number Current Expanded Patients Number (percentage) of suspected patients who receive
to receive treatment within the standard call-to- this model will help improve the quality of stroke treatment
definitive-treatment time. in other regions in the future.
There are some limitations in our study. Numerical
results are based on archived, real-life data in our study.
4. Discussion For example, deciding which rt-PA hospital to upgrade is
based on the previous patient distribution. The patient
Major innovations of this study are as follows. The patients’ distribution may change over time, which means the re-
prehospital stroke scale records allow calculation of the sults have to be updated as the data change. However,
“expected” call-to-definitive-treatment time using a set of patient distribution changes slowly with time. On the
estimated probabilities of correctly identifying patients other hand, due to the difficulty in data accessibility,
with LVO. Known theoretical results from optimization some assumptions are added into the model. For instance,
models suggest that using an expectation of the call-to- the door-to-test time and administration time for each
definitive-treatment time yields a more robust optimal hospital should be of course different, but they are
decision (i.e. a decision that is most likely to be optimal in assumed to be the same. Besides, this expansion plan
all situations) compared to using the historical time focuses on enabling most patients to receive the definitive
because there are uncertainties in the measurement of the treatment within standard time but not other specific
door-to-definitive-treatment time.20 The procedure of factors. For example, in a real-world implementation, the
sending patients to the EVT-capable hospital, including the cost of extra facilities and personnel and the financial
upgraded hospital capable of providing rt-PA treatment, or benefits require further analysis. Moreover, whether pri-
to the hospitals capable of providing rt-PA treatment vate hospitals are willing to follow the serial upgrade plan
excluding the one being upgraded was simulated through is also an issue. Under National Health Insurance and
novel modeling techniques. The sequence of hospitals to be hospital rating system, hospitals are eager to expand their
upgraded in order of the number of patients that would be service and provide EVT. Although there is no way to give
covered within a specific period of time was obtained. The mandatory orders to decide which hospital, especially a
proposed model is generally considered to be sufficient to private one, could have the priority to be upgraded, this
be used in the planning area in addition to our case study. model provides the national policymakers an aid. When
In Taipei, 68.82% of patients are estimated to receive necessary, the national policymakers can offer resources
treatment within the expected call-to-definitive- in exchange or give incentives to persuade the hospitals to
treatment time based on patient data and current distri- cooperate.
bution of hospitals. To plan a suitable rt-PA hospital-up- In conclusion, we propose a mathematical optimiza-
grade project, both the locations of the hospitals and the tion model, considering not only geographical locations
distribution of patients are essential factors and should be of patients and hospitals, but also the accuracy of the
considered. From the perspective of geographical infor- prehospital stroke scales and the possibility of secondary
mation, it is necessary to add the EVT-capable hospital in transport of patients. All patients suspected of stroke in
the southern part of Taipei since most of the current EVT- Taipei are sent to EVT-capable hospitals directly in the
capable hospitals are located in the central and the north- simulation under the current medical resource alloca-
ern region. Therefore, the results suggest adding EVT re- tion. In addition, under the assumption of no hospital
sources to hospital H. After expanding the EVT capacity to providing EVT treatment initially, all suspected patients
hospital H, 8.36% of suspected stroke patients are sent to will be sent to EVT-capable hospitals directly after
hospital H instead. upgrading three or more hospitals to become EVT-
In the model, under the assumption that there is no capable. This model has generality to be validated and
hospital providing EVT treatment, we choose new EVT- then applied in both rural and urban areas and is a useful
capable hospitals one by one for EVT resource redistribu- tool to provide a suggestion for EVT capacity redistribu-
tion. The model suggests that the order of hospital upgrade tion in other regions.
is B, E, F, A, H, I, D, C, G and J. After the 6th hospital is
selected to upgrade, hospitals A, B, E, F, H, and I become Declaration of competing interest
new EVT-capable hospitals. It predicts an increase of 2.79%
of suspected stroke patients receiving treatment within The authors have no conflicts of interest relevant to this
the expected call-to-definitive-treatment time after EVT article.
resource redistribution, when compared with current
medical resource allocation.
The model built up in our study can be generalized; that Acknowledgments
is, it can be used in other regions. For the areas with scarce
EVT resources, the model can help to decide the successive We would like to thank the Taipei City Fire Department for
upgrade of rt-PA hospital until the number of patients their administrative support. The article was supported by
who can receive treatment within the standard call-to- the Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST 106-
definitive-treatment time is satisfactory. On the other 2314-B-002-091 and MOST 108-2314-B-002 -131) and Na-
hand, for the areas where EVT resources are not evenly tional Taiwan University Hospital (108-09). The funding
distributed, it provides a suggestion for EVT capacity sources had no role in the design of this study or any role
redistribution to increase overall. We confirm the feasibility during its execution, analyses, interpretation of the data,
of this model through past stroke data. It is believed that or decision to submit results.
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Journal of the Formosan Medical Association 121 (2022) 978e985
985