NABILAH BINTI TALIB

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EIB3003 Managerial Economics
Case study 3 (25%)
Duration: 7/6/2022 – 27/6/2022

Note:
i) you are encouraged to discuss the cases in group, but everyone must submit individual
solutions (and in your own wordings!). Please indicate on the answer script if you’ve discussed
in a group and list name(s) of those in the group.
ii) please present the estimation findings using your own table, please do not copy & paste the
output from excel/STATA etc.

Case 1
Rice production in Indonesia

The government of Indonesia has introduced an agricultural intensification program called

Bimas (Bimbingan Massal/Mass Guidance) to boost the production of rice farmers in several
regions. The program was characterized by the establishment of the regional village leagues as
the lowest-level administrative unit for 600 to 1000 hectares of rice fields which covers one or
two villages. Each of the village league has a village-unit operations body or village-unit
cooperative, an agricultural guidance staff, a KUD (Koperasi Unit Desa) branch, and a kiosk for
selling fertilizer and insecticide (Murai, 1980:1)1 . The farmers can choose to register all of his
land to the program, not to join the program at all or have only part not all of his land registered
to the program. The Ministry of Agriculture has been collecting data of rice production to monitor
the performance of the farmers and specially to evaluate the program (see rice.xlsx) which
include the following data:

noutput net output, gross output minus harvesting cost (paid in terms of rice)
size the total area cultivated with rice, measured in hectares
seed seed in kilogram
urea urea in kilogram
phosphate phosphate in kilogram
totlabor total number of labor (family labor plus hired labor)
Bimas ‘no’ (non-bimas farmer), ‘yes’ (bimas farmer) or ‘mixed’ (part but not all of
farmer’s land was registered to be in the bimas program)

a) Using the data, estimate a linear production function using OLS method that considering size,
total labor, seed, the two types of fertilizers, and Bimas participation. Evaluate and discuss the
overall fitness of the model. (15 marks)

Based on the data, the rice production and its features (considering size, total labor, seed, the
two types of fertilizers, and Bimas participation) can be given by the following linear production
function in the form. According to the estimation model, net output is the dependent variable,
while size, seed, urea, phosphate, total labor and Bimas participation are the independent
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variables. For Bimas variable, I transformed it into dummy variables which are bimas_yes
(bimas farmer) and bimas_mixed (part but not all of farmer’s land was registered to be in the
bimas program).

Estimation model for production function of rice production:

ln(noutput) = α + β1ln(size) + β2ln(totlabor) + β3ln(seed) + β4ln(urea) + β5ln(phosphate) +

β6ln(bimas_yes) + β7ln(bimas_mixed) + e

Table 1: The findings of regression model

Variable Coefficient T-stat P-value

C 4.567863 22.63952 0.0000

lnsize 0.373955 11.54071 0.0000

lntotlabor 0.195296 6.750568 0.0000

lnseed 0.145247 5.402287 0.0000

lnurea 0.191750 7.208093 0.0000

lnphosphate 0.122054 6.062062 0.0000

Bimas_yes 0.103129 2.662611 0.0079

Bimas_mixed -0.151606 -4.881157 0.0000

R-squared 0.887153

Adjusted R-squared 0.886250

Observation 1026

F-stat 982.6911

Significance of F 0.000000

According to Table 1, the regression equation that is obtained from this model is as follows

ln(noutput) = 4.567863 + 0.373955ln(size) + 0.195296ln(totlabor) + 0.145247ln(seed) +

0.191750ln(urea) + 0.122054ln(phosphate) + 0.103129Bimas_yes – 0.151606Bimas_mixed

In order to evaluate how well this equation model fits the data, we also need to interpret the
other statistics that are in Table 1.
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Firstly, we look at the R-squared statistics. In this case, the R-squared is 0.8872 (rounded to 4
significant figures), which also means that the regression equation explains 88% of the total
variation, such as the size, total labor, seed, the two types of fertilizers, and Bimas participation
of the model. Meanwhile, the other 12% is explained by other variables. However, since
R-squared is prone to limitations, we can also look at the Adjusted R-squared. In this model, the
Adjusted R-squared is 0.8863 (rounded to 4 significant figures), which also means that 88.63%
of the variation in the housing price is explained by size, total labor, seed, the two types of
fertilizers, and Bimas participation. Meanwhile, the other 11.37% is explained by other variables.

In order to evaluate the overall fitness of the model, we have to look at the F-statistic. The F-test
statistic will use the following hypotheses:

𝐻0: β1 = β2 = β3 = β4 = β5 = β6 = β7 = 0 (no significant relationship between rice output and

the variables)

𝐻1: 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 β𝑗 ≠ 0 (there is a significant relationship between at least one of the variables
with the housing price)

According to Table 2, F-stat is 982.6911 and the p-value for F-stat is 0. In order to see whether
this model is statistically significant, we need to look up the critical value of the F-statistic.

α = 0. 05, 𝐹0.05, 7, 1018 = 2. 018558

The F-stat = 982.6911 is greater than the critical value = 2.018558. Hence, we need to reject
the null hypothesis (H0) at 5% significance level. This means that there is evidence that at least
one of the independent variables does influence the rice net output.

b) Evaluate and discuss the marginal productivity of the inputs in rice production. (15 marks)

In economics, the marginal productivity of an input is the change in output resulting from
employing one more unit of a particular input, assuming that the quantities of other inputs are
constant.
Table 2
Total Net Total Land Total Labor Total Seed Total Urea Total
Output Size (totlabor) (seed) (urea) Phosphate
(noutput) (size) (phosphate)

1273184 442.819 398547 18679 97922 34605

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Production function:

𝑄 = 𝑓(𝐿 , 𝐾)

where L represents all the variable inputs and K represents all the fixed inputs.

According to this case study, the inputs for rice production are total area cultivated with rice
(size), total labour, seed and two types of fertilizer, urea and phosphate. All of the inputs are
variables inputs.

Formula of marginal productivity for variable inputs:

MPL = α ● (Q/L)

where
α represents the intercept
Q represents sum of total output
L represent sum of total each variable input.

Below is the calculation of marginal productivity of the inputs of rice production:

i) Marginal productivity of land size

MPsize = 4.567863 ● (1273184/442.819) = 13133.42491

The marginal productivity of land size is 13133.4249.

ii) Marginal productivity of total labor

MPtotlabor = 4.567863 ● (1273184/398547) = 14.5923

The marginal productivity of total labor is 14.5923

iii) Marginal productivity of seed

MPseed = 4.567863 ● (1273184/18679) = 311.3513

Marginal productivity of seed is 311.3513

iv) Marginal productivity of urea

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MPurea = 4.567863 ● (1273184/97922) = 59.3915

Marginal productivity of urea is 59.3915

v) Marginal productivity of phosphate

MPphosphate = 4.567863 ● (1273184/34605) = 168.0604

Marginal productivity of phosphate is 168.0604

c) If there is an increase 10% increase in land size, how much will production of rice increase
holding other things constant. What if the farmers increase the number of labors by 10% holding
other things constant, how much the increment affect the rice production? (4 marks)

Regression model :

ln(noutput) = 4.567863 + 0.373955ln(size) + 0.195296ln(totlabor) + 0.145247ln(seed) +

0.191750ln(urea) + 0.122054ln(phosphate) + 0.103129Bimas_yes – 0.151606Bimas_mixed

Based on the regression model, given that all the other independent variables are held constant,
we can tell that one percent increase in land size is associated with 37.3955% increase in rice
production. If there is an increase 10% in land size, the production of rice will increase by
373.955% holding other things constant. One percent increase in total number of labor will lead
to 19.5296% in production of rice. If the farmers increase the number of labors by 10% holding
other things constant, the increment affect the rice production is 195.296%.

d) Present the evidence against/supporting Bimas to the Ministry of Agriculture. (6 marks)

I will be using the p-value of Bimas participation to evaluate the significance of the variable and
explain the coefficient that indicates the amount by which rice net output is anticipated to rise
when bimas participation increases by one percentage, assuming that all other independent
variables remain constant. The following is the table of the bimas participation variable and their
p-value

Table 3: Bimas participation and their p-value

Bimas Participation P-value

bimas_yes 0.0079

bimas_mixed 0.0000
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Before we test for the significance of the variable, it should be known the the α value is 0.05.

I. Test for significance for Bimas yes (bimas farmer)

𝐻0: 𝑏𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑠 𝑦𝑒𝑠 = 0

𝐻1: 𝑏𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑠 𝑦𝑒𝑠 ≠ 0

The p-value for the bimas farmer is 0.0079 and it is smaller the alpha value which is 0.05.
Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis at a 5% significance level, thus, indicating that there is
evidence that the bimas farmer influences the production of rice given that the other
independent variables are in the model too.

II. Test for significance for Bimas mixed (part but not all of farmer’s land was registered to
be in the bimas program)

𝐻0: 𝑏𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑠 𝑚𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑 = 0

𝐻1: 𝑏𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑠 𝑚𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑 ≠ 0

The p-value for the part but not all of farmer’s land was registered to be in the bimas program is
0.0000 and it is smaller the alpha value which is 0.05. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis at
a 5% significance level, thus, indicating that there is evidence that mixed Bimas participation
(part but not all of farmer’s land was registered to be in the bimas program) influences the
production of rice given that the other independent variables are in the model too.

Regression model :

ln(noutput) = 4.567863 + 0.373955ln(size) + 0.195296ln(totlabor) + 0.145247ln(seed) +

0.191750ln(urea) + 0.122054ln(phosphate) + 0.103129Bimas_yes – 0.151606Bimas_mixed

Based on the regression model, given that all the other independent variables are held constant,
one percent increase in bimas farmer will cause the production of rice (net output) to increase
by 10.3129%. However, when one percent increase in mixed bimas participation (part but not all
of farmer’s land was registered to be in the bimas program), the production of rice will decrease
by 15.1606%. With these coefficients values, the Ministry of Agriculture need to think about
using bimas farmers in order to produce rice because doing so can increase the net output of
rice (positive coefficient value). It is hypothesised that the participation of mixed bimas could
lead to a reduction in rice net output due to the negative coefficient value. This is something that
the Ministry should have to take into consideration.
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e) In your opinion, what could have explained the difference in productivity of farmers with mixed
Bimas participation? (6 marks)

In my opinion, with mixed Bimas participation, the productivity of farmers is expected to be lower
compared to all bimas participation. This is because under Bimas program, farmers are
provided with information on better cultivation methods and on developing irrigation systems.
Hence, BIMAS was able to disseminate widely new and better cultivation knowledge. Third,
BIMAS was able to make important inputs, such as high yielding varieties, fertiliser and
pesticides to be adopted by farmers. BIMAS farmers were reported to receive a higher income
than non- intensified farmers did. As some mixed Bimas farmers was not registered to be in the
bimas program, they are not able to get these advantages. They might be lack of skills and
techniques in producing. Because of this, their income are expected to be lower. Therefore, the
productivity of farmers might be affected and lower than farmers with all bimas participation.
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Case 2
Cost benefit analysis

Urban transportation management requires careful consideration of cost and benefit before a
certain project is executed not only because of limited financial resources, but also the cost of
land acquisition is often more expensive, and the sunk cost is very high. However, density of
population in urban areas promise a good amount of users/ridership. To increase the use of
public transportation and connectivity, the government is considering expanding the coverage of
Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) to satellite cities where more residential areas are located in hope to
reduce the dependency on private transportation. As a consultant at a well-known consultation
company, you are hired by the government to perform the cost benefit analysis of such
expansion. Identify the items for cost and the benefits and their operational measurement (no
values, only the items). Remember there may be direct and indirect costs and benefits. Make
sure that you make it clear of any assumption made. List all references. (30 marks)

A cost-benefit analysis is a method used by organizations to choose which options to pursue

and which to forego. The cost-benefit analyst adds up the potential rewards anticipated from a
circumstance or action, then subtracts the overall expenses connected with carrying out that
operation. As a consultant, I have analyzed cost benefit analysis (CBA) for government in
response to an expansion of MRT coverage. The items of both cost and benefits is presented
based on the table below.
Table 3: Cost-Benefit Analysis of MRT

Costs Benefits

1) Construction cost - The Mass Rapid 1) Travel time - Engineering calculations and
Transit system, eventually comprising three a detailed knowledge of how an MRT
lines, is Malaysia‘s biggest infrastructure extension would effect traffic flow are critical
project to date. The first line – connecting to determining how much time will be saved.
Kuala Lumpur to Sungai Buloh in the By making these changes, train freight and
northeast and Kajang in the southwest – took passenger travel times might be cut in half
six years to build and cost 21 billion ringgit (including wait times). Because of grade
(approx. 4.89 billion US dollars). Meanwhile, separations or reductions in vehicle
the construction costs of MRT (excluding congestion owing to the diversion of certain
interest during construction, land acquisition passenger or freight operations to the rail, car
costs and other costs) has been successfully passengers and truck freight may have more
reduced by 8.82 billion ringgit (1.85 billion efficient journey times as a result.
euros) or 22.4 % – from 39.35 billion ringgit
(8.27 billion euros) to 30.53 billion ringgit
2) Reliability - The term "reliability" refers to
(6.42 billion euros). a train's ability to consistently arrive on time.
Non-schedule benefits, such as more
2) Operation and maintenance costs - effective fleet usage, may be gained by train
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Operating and maintenance costs cover a
wide array of costs required on a continuing
basis to support core railroad functions.
These costs include:
I. Depreciation of railway assets costs -
the imposition of charges upon the
usage of assets during its economic
lifespan
II. Railway staff costs - the railway staff
are those employees directly related
to the operation of the MRT; in this
case, the machinist and operation
control center staff
III. Infrastructure costs - infrastructure
costs which include the cost of track
and station facility usage that consist
of infrastructure depreciation cost and
infrastructure maintenance cost
IV. Insurance costs
V. Electricity costs - electrical substation
and power flow over the network that
serves to transmit electrical power
from the source to electric train
VI. Security costs - the cost of the
security in the station and inside the
train
VII. Train cleaning facilities costs - the
cost of the trains to be cleaned daily
VIII. Employment costs - office employees
salary
IX. Office expenses costs - depreciation
costs of office building, office
maintenance, office administrators,
the cost of electricity, water,
telephone, and so on
X. License and certification - the
confirmation given by a professional
organization to a company that
indicates the ability to perform a
specific job or task
XI. Passenger service - cost for
passenger service at the station
XII. Marketing costs - marketing at
operators that rely on highly dependable
service. Passenger rail is generally seen as a
need for widespread usage by passengers if
dependable service is not provided. It is
possible that passengers will pick a longer,
but more dependable, travel over a quicker,
but more often delayed, one that is more
convenient.
3) Safety - When a project minimises the risk
of a derailment or any other form of railroad
accident, MRT projects get the benefits. In
addition, if this extension project reduces the
danger or severity of a train collision, it will
result in fewer injuries and deaths, as well as
reduced property damage.
4) Agglomeration Economies and
Productivity - Improved MRT services can
transform a region's economic landscape.
According to agglomeration theory,
enterprises and households benefit from
economic activity concentration. These
benefits may include more effective
information and idea interchange, access to
larger and more specialised labour pools, a
greater assortment of enterprises and
services, or more efficient use of common
resources and facilities, such as transport
and communications networks or hospitals
and schools. Cities and urban regions arose
because people and businesses benefited
from clustering economic activities in urban
areas.
4) Reducing pollutions - any individuals
may forego their cars in favour of public
transportation if the MRT system is efficient
and pleasant. In addition to helping
commuters avoid traffic congestion, the
construction of an MRT system reduces air
pollution (Fox, 2000). Commute times are
halved, and pollution is reduced, as a result
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stations, such as flyers, brochures, of self-driving vehicles and strategically

souvenirs, advertising, or promotions located stations with adequate ventilation. In
XIII. Human resource development addition, Fox (2000) argues that when MRT
XIV. Maintenance costs - the repair and systems replace buses, the traffic
maintenance cost of the assets composition shifts toward cleaner vehicles
and vehicle kilometres are reduced. MRT's
3) Capital expenditure - It is the sum of all strategic impact on urban planning may
the money needed to build or purchase the contribute to the development of a more
project's assets that constitutes the project's dense, environmentally conscious metropolis
capital cost. The cost of all materials and (Fouracre et al., 2003).
labour needed in the construction of a project
is typically included in capital expenses. 5) Cost savings - Passengers may save
Project design and development costs, costs in three ways from improved mass rapit
environmental evaluations, land purchase or transit. First, existing public transportation
real estate acquisition fees, or transaction passengers will pay more owing to changing
charges for arranging funding are all fare structures. Change in travel costs for
examples of indirect capital costs. There those shifting from car use due to the
should be a consistent presentation of capital difference between public transportation fares
costs throughout the CBA analysis period. and previously-paid vehicle operating costs
such as fuel, parking, tolls, and maintenance,
4) Asset replacement costs - The CBA and change in ownership costs if former car
analysis period should match the owners end up owning fewer cars in the long
infrastructure's useful life. Many railroad run.
assets, such as tunnels and bridges, are
planned for long-term operation and have an 6) Mobility and market access - Public
estimated life that exceeds any feasible CBA transportation gives access to employment,
analysis period. The MRT project may also school, health care, and/or shopping. Studies
comprise capital asset components with a on rural transit systems (Burkhardt, 1999)
shorter projected useful life. For assets with and human costs of immobility have
useful service lifetimes shorter than the examined these effects (Crain et al, 1999).
analysis period, the project sponsor should Work and shopping access benefits translate
consider that the asset will be replaced or to enhanced business productivity in
repurchased and that the full cost will recur at economic impact modelling. This takes two
that time. forms: worker productivity enabled by a
broader and more diverse labour market,
which better matches desired and available
worker skills, and economies of scale
provided by a wider customer market.
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MRT operational measurement is punctuality and reliability. Reliability of railway operations is
often expressed through measurement of punctuality and regularity. Rudnicki (1997) defines
punctuality as “that a predefined vehicle arrives, departs or passes a predefined point at a
predefined time”, and regularity as “a successive vehicle of a public transport line, depart or
pass at a predefined point with the predefined time intervals”. This means that punctuality is
related to deviation between the actual and predefined departure or arrival time for a train, while
regularity is a measurement of how many departures or arrivals that actually took place,
compared to the predefined schedule (Olsson and Haugland, 2004).

Punctuality and regularity are two of the most important quality factors for railway customers,
and improvement of punctuality and regularity are part of the strategy for all the examined
companies. NEA (2003) claims that punctuality is considered as the number one factor
determining railway service quality, in most countries. Rudnicki (1997) state that improvement of
punctuality and regularity is the main task in improvement programs of public transport system,
due to that both are measures of unreliability and therefore “take very high place in opinions of
passengers”. Bates et al. (2001) have investigated rail passengers’ valuation of punctuality.
They conclude that punctuality and reliability is behaviourally important affecting both their
perceptions and level of use of different modes.

The measures of MRT operational performance are divided into three features which are
technical performance, service performance and economic performance. Below are the items
that i have identified:

Measures of technical performance

● Measures of train operations performance

1. Train hours per year
2. Average gross tons per train
3. Average revenue tons per train
4. Average passenger train-run
5. Passenger-miles per passenger train hour
● Measures of equipment utilization
1. Route-mileage (by size of gauges, by rail weight and total)
2. Track-miles (by types of gauges, by rail weigh and total)

Measures of service performance

● Speed
1. Average speed of trains (freight and passenger)
2. Frequency of trains and schedules
3. Turn-around time of wagons
● Safety
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● Reliability and dependability
1. No. of derailments per million train-miles
2. No. of accidents per million train miles
3. Passengers killed and injured per 10 million train miles
4. Rail employees killed and injured per million engine-miles (total)
5. No. of claims for damages per million revenue ton-miles of freight
6. Percentage of trains on-time to total number of trains (freight and passenger)
7. Average delays of every train delayed (time units)
● Technological advancement
1. No. of employees per route miles
2. % of route-mileage with automatic traffic control
3. % of route-mileage with centralized traffic control

Measures of economic performance

● Commercial productivity
1. Revenue ton-miles
2. Revenue passengers carried
3. Net tons moved
4. Revenue passenger seat-miles carried
● Labour productivity
1. Revenue per employee
2. Revenue ton-miles per employee
3. Revenue ton-miles per man-hour paid
4. Gross ton-miles per employee
5. Gross ton-miles per man-hour paid
6. Revenue train miles per employee
7. No. of employee
8. Service hours
9. Total wage expense
10. Labor cost/hours worked
● Financial performance measures of capital productivity -
➔ Cost effectiveness
1. Operating ratio (operating expenses/operating revenue)
2. Transportation ratio (transportation expenses/MRT revenue)
3. Transportation expenses per year
4. Maintenance equipment ratio (maintenance expenses/MRT revenue)
➔ Profitability
1. Total MRT operating expenses
2. Total MRT operating revenues
3. Total freight revenues
4. Total passenger revenues
5. Net year income
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● Equipment productivity
1. Fuel cost/diesel unit-mile
2. Fuel cost/revenue train
3. Fuel costs
4. Maintenance of equipment costs (with or without depreciation)
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