Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 106, No. 1, pp. 225–231, February 2016, doi: 10.

1785/0120150090

Quick Estimation of the Magnitude and Epicentral

Distance Using the P Wave for Earthquakes in Iran
by Reza Heidari

Abstract A reliable estimation of the earthquake magnitude and epicentral dis-

tance within a few seconds after the P-wave arrival is of great importance for earth-
quake early warning systems. This study aims to investigate the relations between
the envelope of the initial part of the P wave with epicentral distance and magnitude
of the earthquakes related to the tectonic conditions of Iran. To this end, the accel-
erometer waveforms of 17 earthquakes with moment magnitudes less than 7.8 and
epicentral distances less than 150 km are considered. A simple function with the form
of y
Bt: exp−At is fitted to the initial part of the waveform envelope on time
windows of 2, 3, 4, and 5 s by the least-squares method, which is constructed simply
by keeping the past maximum amplitude at every moment. Parameters A and B are
obtained to scale magnitude and epicentral distance as well. The results show that
− log Δ is proportional to log B, in which Δ denotes the epicentral distance. The dis-
tance-scaling relations for all of the time windows indicate standard deviations be-
tween 0:16 and 0:17 km for log Δ. Comparing to the adopted relation in the
early warning system of the Japan Meteorological Agency, results illustrate a rela-
tively distinct slope and intercept, which arises from differences in tectonic structure
and features of the earthquake sources in two areas. The same process for records with
epicentral distances less than 50 km is also repeated. Results indicate smaller standard
deviations between 0:13 and 0:14 km for four time windows. Considering the
arrangement of hazardous faults in many populated districts of Iran, including Tehran,
utilization of the obtained relations is recommended for distances less than 50 km.
Moreover, the current study represents two distance-dependent relations between
magnitudes with Pmax and A × Pmax within the initial 3 s of P-wave arrivals with
standard deviations of 0:42 and 0:46 magnitude units, respectively.

Introduction
Detecting initial signs of destructive earthquakes and is-
suing warning of the oncoming strong motions are possible
by earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs). Therefore,
these systems have the potential of reducing the damaging
effects, including destruction of infrastructures, human fatal-
ities, and injuries. Relatively rapid and robust estimation of
source parameters is considered to be the main point for ef-
fective performance of an EEWS. In fact, an EEWS should
estimate the magnitude and epicentral distance during the in-
itial seconds of P-wave arrivals and give alarm signals for
areas subjected to devastating waves. The first early warning
system (EWS) operated in Japan to stop high-speed trains
was called Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System
(UrEDAS) (Bito and Nakamura, 1986; Nakamura, 1988). In
the UrEDAS, magnitude is the first estimated basis of the
frequency contents of the initial parts of a P wave (the pre-
dominant period τmax P , which was introduced by Allen and
Kanamori, 2003). Next, epicentral distance is determined
from an empirical relation as a function of magnitude,
distance, and peak amplitude of the P wave (Bito and Naka-
mura, 1986; Nakamura, 1988; Odaka et al., 2003).
Odaka et al. (2003) proposed another method known as
the B − Δ approach to determine epicentral distance of the
earthquake by using a functional formula for the initial am-
plitudes of the P wave. This method is also used in the EWS
of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (Kamigaichi, 2004;
Kamigaichi et al., 2009), and the acceptable results are pre-
sented. JMA has been responsible for the rapid identification
of destructive earthquakes and issuing alarms in Japan since
2007 (Kamigaichi et al., 2009).
In recent years, many efforts have been made by Tehran
Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO)
in cooperation with Japan International Cooperation Agency
(JICA) to operate EWSs similar to other countries, such as
Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, and the United States (Espi-
nosa Aranda et al., 1995; Wu et al., 1998; Wu and Teng, 2002;

225

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 226 R. Heidari

Table 1
Earthquakes Used in This Study
Earthquake Date (yyyy/mm/dd) Time (UTC) (hh:mm:ss) Latitude (°) Longitude (°) Mw *

Avaj 2002/06/22 02:58:20 35.36 48.93 6.5

Bam 2003/12/26 01:56:56 29.00 58.33 6.6
Kajoor 2004/05/28 12:38:44 36.30 51.56 6.3
Kahak 2007/06/18 14:29:50 34.54 50.95 5.5
Rigan 2011/01/27 08:38:28 28.15 59.00 6.2
Ahar 2012/08/11 12:23:15 38.55 46.87 6.4
— 2012/08/11 12:30:32 38.41 46.78 5.0
Varzaghan 2012/08/11 12:34:34 38.45 46.75 6.2
— 2012/08/11 12:44:38 38.44 46.70 4.0
— 2012/08/11 12:49:15 38.39 46.69 4.6
— 2012/08/11 13:14:05 38.40 46.65 4.4
— 2012/08/11 15:21:14 38.42 46.80 4.7
— 2012/08/11 15:43:19 38.46 46.73 5.0
— 2012/08/11 19:52:44 38.46 46.83 4.4
— 2012/08/11 22:24:02 38.43 46.75 5.1
Shonbeh 2013/04/09 11:52:50 28.46 51.62 6.4
Gosht 2013/04/16 10:44:20 28.24 61.14 7.7

*M w , moment magnitude based on the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report (USGS, see Data
and Resources).

Allen and Kanamori, 2003; Erdik et al., 2003; Odaka et al.,
2003; Boese et al., 2004; Kamigaichi, 2004; Nakamura, 2004;
Horiuchi et al., 2005; Wu and Kanamori, 2005a). Tehran,
located in the northern part of Iran and the southern part of
the central Alborz mountains, is known to have high poten-
tial for seismic activities due to its active faults, namely the
Mosha, North Tehran, and South/North Rey faults. The pilot
TDMMO warning system is in its final stages for running
experimental tests. A high probability of the occurrence of
large earthquakes and the lack of instrumental waveforms
for moderate-to-large earthquakes in Tehran shape the main
obstacles for operating an EEWS in this city. This problem
can also be observed in other Iranian cities that are subjected
to large earthquakes, such as Tabriz, Bam, Mashhad, Boru-
jerd, Bushehr, and so on. Because the B − Δ algorithm has
been used in the pilot EWS of Tehran, the relation developed
by JMA is used for rapid estimation of epicentral distance as
(Noda et al., 2012):
EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df1;55;246 logΔ
−0:498 logB  1:965;
in which B indicates the slope of the curve of the envelope of
the primary seconds of P-wave amplitude (Gal=s) and Δ
indicates epicentral distance (in kilometers). In this study,
distance- and magnitude-scaling relations are investigated
using the envelope of the initial part of the P wave of the
earthquakes that occurred in Iran.
Database
In this study, more than 440 acceleration waveforms for
17 earthquakes 4:0 < M < 7:8 during 2003–2014 are tested.
The data used in this study are obtained from the Iran Accel-
eration Network associated with the Building and Housing
Research Center (see Data and Resources), which records data
using more than 250 digital-type three-component accelerom-
eters (SSA-2) with a sampling rate of 200 samples=s. Vertical
components of the respective data with peak ground motion
of ∼10–400 Gal are used. These records are chosen among
data with clear amplitude of the P wave and epicentral dis-
tances of 8–150 km. The relatively strong signal-to-noise ra-
tios (SNRs) of records are significantly high and waveforms
with SNR < 3 are discarded. Table 1 shows specifications of
these earthquakes.
B − Δ Approach
A method introduced by Odaka et al. (2003) is used in
the EWS of JMA that is able to provide an appropriate esti-
mation of the epicentral distance and magnitude using a
modeling function of increasing amplitude of the initial sec-
onds of the P wave. This method assumes that the amplitude
1 of the initial waves of the P wave is very small in comparison
with later phases of the S and surface waves and contains
very important information about forthcoming strong waves;
it is similar to other methods for estimation of magnitude
and epicentral distance (e.g., Wu and Kanamori, 2005a,b).
Although behavior of amplitude of the initial phases of earth-
quake waves (about the initial 3 s) can be a function of many
factors of earthquake source (such as directivity) and wave
propagation environment, Odaka et al. (2003) showed that
slope of the curve envelope of these initial amplitudes is well
associated with the epicentral distance. Hence, Odaka et al.
(2003) defined function y
Bt: exp−At, which is fitted to
the observed amplitudes of the initial seconds of waveforms.
Parameters A and B are determined using the least-squares

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 Quick Estimation of the Magnitude and Epicentral Distance Using the P Wave for Earthquakes in Iran
Figure 1. Logarithm of absolute values for a selected waveform
of an earthquake with magnitude 6.2 and epicentral distance of 35 km
in the northwest of Iran. The continuous and dotted lines indicate the
fitting of function Bt: exp−At to an envelope of amplitudes when
arrival time of the P wave is triggered correctly or wrongly, respec-
tively. As can be observed in this figure, incorrect triggering of P
wave leads to some estimation errors for A and B values.
method. In this function, t denotes arrival time and B denotes
slope of the initial part of the P wave. Odaka et al. (2003)
indicated an appropriate linear relation between log Δ and
log B that is independent of the earthquake magnitude. For
positive values of parameter A, B=Ae equals the highest am-
plitude; this is observed in small earthquakes for which the
amplitude increases quickly and decreases immediately after
arrival of the P wave. Here e means the base of natural log-
arithm. However, when A is negative, the amplitude in-
creases exponentially with time; this is observed during
large earthquakes (Odaka et al., 2003). Despite the fact that
the function seems to be a relatively simple one, parameters
A and B, which are extracted from the respective functions,
are of great importance and show vital information about
earthquake sources.
Evaluation of Parameter B
According to the method proposed by Odaka et al.
(2003), the following processes are performed in an attempt
to extract two parameters, A and B, from waveforms of earth-
quakes in Iran (Table 1).
First, corresponding waveforms are detrended and fil-
tered to improve SNR, and then arrival time of the P wave
is carefully determined. Similar to Noda et al. (2012), accel-
erometers are band-pass filtered for 10–20 Hz. Given the fact
that there is not an appropriate velocity model in most re-
gions of Iran, the arrival time of the P wave is determined
manually. The function form of y
Bt: exp−At indicates
that triggering of the P wave is very sensitive, and small er-
rors in triggering of the P wave may cause significant errors
in estimation of the key parameters of A and B (see Fig. 1).
Next, the logarithm of the absolute values of the waveform is
measured. To avoid a zero amplitude during calculation of
the logarithm, small noise is added to smaller amplitudes.
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227
Figure 2. Comparing values for log B in time windows of 2, 3,
and 4 s. The values obtained for log B in different time windows
show good linear conformity. Therefore, a time window of 3 s is
considered to be the appropriate time continuity for estimating ep-
icentral distance.
Finally, time windows of 2, 3, 4, and 5 s from the initial
part of the P wave are chosen, and the function of
y
Bt: exp−At is fitted to them. For this purpose, the log-
arithm of this function is used as lny
lnBt − At. In this
way, parameters A and lnB can be easily calculated using
the least-squares method. Figure 1 indicates an example of
such processes on a selected waveform.
Figure 2 presents the values of B parameter for four time
windows. It is clear that there is an appropriate linear con-
formity between most values of this parameter in all time
windows. Thus, pollution of the P wave by the S wave for
some waveforms has no great effect on precision of B values.
Moreover, a time window of 3 s is enough for the estimation
of the epicentral distance and magnitude range of the studied
earthquakes.
Estimation of Epicentral Distance
After extracting parameters A and B, values for the log-
arithm of epicentral distance are plotted against the loga-
rithm of B values in four time windows for earthquake
waveforms (gray circles in Fig. 3), and the best fitted line
is obtained using the least-squares method. To compare the
results, the relation applied by Noda et al. (2012) is also
presented. As can be inferred from Figure 3, there are appro-
priate linear relations between log Δ and log B for Iranian
data. As a result of tectonic differences in two districts, such
linear relations have a lower slope relative to the relation ap-
plied in Japan. These relations for the respective time windows
are as follows:
EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df2;313;144 logΔ
−0:908 logB  2:527  0:17 tw
2 s;
2
logΔ
−0:908 logB  2:518  0:17 tw
3 s;
EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df3;313;102
3
 228 R. Heidari

Figure 3. Relation between B values and epicentral distance of the studied earthquakes for records with epicentral distance below
150 km. The gray circles indicate B values, the gray line shows the linear relation between log Δ and log B, and the black line shows
the linear relation used in the early warning system (EWS) of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (Noda et al., 2012). The difference
between slope and intercept of these two relations is due to differences in tectonic structure between Iran and Japan.

EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df4;55;412 logΔ
−0:912 logB  2:520  0:16 tw
4 s; logΔ
−0:656 logB  2:240  0:13 tw
3 s;
4
EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df7;313;400

7

logΔ
−0:934 logB  2:532  0:16 tw
5 s;

logΔ
−0:638 logB  2:212  0:13 tw
4 s;
EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df5;55;363

5
EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df8;313;358

8
in which tw is the time window width in seconds.
In order to study error values of the above-mentioned logΔ
−0:631 logB  2:189  0:13 tw
5 s:
relations, residual values for jΔest − Δobs j are calculated for
EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df9;313;311

9
all waveforms. Figure 4a shows the cumulative error function
in the estimation of the epicentral distance of equations (1)–(5).
As shown in this figure, estimation error for the epicentral dis- These resulting equations can be utilized in the imple-
tance is less than 20 km for just 35% of waveforms. There- mentation of a pilot Tehran EWS to provide a quick and
fore, the corresponding relations presented in equations (2)–(5) robust estimation of epicentral distance with standard devia-
can estimate epicentral distances with standard deviations be- tions less than about 0:14 km for log Δ at stations up to
tween the order of 0:16 and 0:17 km for log Δ. The small 50 km from the epicenter. Figure 4b shows the cumulative
increase in error for longer time windows is due to the fact that residual function in estimating the epicentral distance of the
the initial amplitude of the P wave was polluted by the S wave mentioned equations. As observed in this figure, the estima-
for some records. tion error for the epicentral distance is less than 20 km for
Given the fact that the distribution of active faults in 90% of waveforms. Moreover, the results show acceptable
Tehran is near urban centers, the mentioned processes are conformity with the relation applied in the EWS of JMA
performed twice for earthquake records with the epicentral (Noda et al., 2012).
distance of less than 50 km. Figure 5 presents the results
as follows: Estimation of Magnitude
By estimating the epicentral distance based on param-
logΔ
−0:678 logB  2:281  0:14 tw
2 s;
eter B, one can easily obtain a relation for estimation of the
EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df6;55;107

6 earthquake magnitude as a function of maximum phase am-

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 Quick Estimation of the Magnitude and Epicentral Distance Using the P Wave for Earthquakes in Iran 229

in which δ is the standard deviation. Figure 6a illustrates the

cumulative distribution function for the absolute difference
measurements between the observed and estimated magni-
tudes, jM est − Mobs j. Although the standard deviation in
equation (10) is less than that of equation (11), the magni-
tudes estimated by using the A × Pmax approach are more
robust than those estimated by using Pmax in about 70% of
records. An additional study is conducted for acceleration
records with moment magnitude of more than 5 to validate
the reliability and robustness of the determined magnitude-
scaling relations introduced in equations (10) and (11). The
cumulative distribution function for the jM est − M obs j mea-
surements in Figure 6b indicates that, in more than 90%
of records, the A × Pmax approach can be more accurate.
Considering the early earthquake warning aspect, it is
apparent that earthquake size can be estimated using equa-
tion (11), based on B, A, and Pmax parameters within 3 s after
P-wave arrival. However, further investigations on more
earthquake data covering a larger range of magnitudes and
distances should be performed.

Discussion and Conclusions

The present study aims to provide appropriate relations
by analyzing the rising slope of amplitude at the initial sec-
onds of records to estimate the earthquake magnitude and
epicentral distance in the pilot TDMMO warning system.
Figure 4. (a) Probability cumulative function of error in esti- Tehran has not experienced any strong earthquake since
mating epicentral distance of earthquakes with focal distance below
150 km for different time windows based on equations (1)–(5). 1830, and bulletins from the Iranian seismological data cen-
(b) Probability cumulative function of error in estimating epicentral ters only cover short time spans (e.g., from 1995). Here, due
distance of earthquakes with focal distance below 50 km for differ- to a lack of instrumental waveforms of large earthquakes in
ent time windows based on equations (6)–(9). the Tehran district, data from 17 earthquakes have appropri-
ate acceleration waveform in the total area of Iran are
plitude received during the initial seconds and epicentral dis- studied.
tance. In the current study, the formula M
α logPmax   Odaka et al. (2003) used a simple function with the form
β logB  γ is chosen to estimate the earthquake magnitude, of y
Bt: exp−At and calculated A and B parameters
in which Pmax denotes the maximum vertical acceleration based on the least-squares method through fitting this func-
within 3 s after the P-wave arrival. The constants α, β, and tion to the initial 3 s of the P-wave envelope. He found that
γ can be specified for earthquake waveforms by using the there is an appropriate inverse linear relation between logB
least-squares method. and logΔ, in which B is the slope of introduced function y.
In addition, another relation, M
α logA × Pmax  Such relation can also be used in EWSs for rapid estimation
β logB  γ, is chosen for quick estimation of earthquake of the epicentral distance. In the current study, magnitude
magnitude as a function of normalized Pmax to A−1 . The value and epicentral distance-scaling relations are developed based
of A−1 shows the required time for curve Bt: exp−At to on the B − Δ algorithm introduced by Odaka et al. (2003) for
reach e−1 of its initial value. Results show the following earthquakes in Iran. For this purpose, various regression re-
two relations: lations between logB and logΔ are determined for differ-
ent time windows of 2, 3, 4, and 5 s after P-wave arrival time.
For these time windows, the standard deviations of the dis-
M
1:116 logPmax  − 1:102 logB  5:837
10 tance-scaling relation are estimated to be on the order of
EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df10;55;177

δ
0:42; 0:17 km for logΔ. The process for records with epicen-
tral distance less than 50 km is repeated, and some appropri-
and ate relations for estimation of the epicentral distance with
standard deviations of around 0:14 km for logΔ are ob-
EQ-TARGET;temp:intralink-;df11;55;112

M
−0:122 logA × Pmax  − 0:190 logB  6:407 tained. Regarding the distribution of faults around this city,
it is recommended to use the presented relations with accept-
δ
0:46; 11 able accuracy by installing more compressed accelerometers

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 230
Figure 5. Relation between B values and epicentral distance of the understudy earthquakes for records with epicentral distance below
50 km. The gray circles show B values, the gray line shows the linear relation between log Δ and log B, and the black continuous line
indicates the relation of JMA (Noda et al., 2012). An appropriate conformity is observed between the linear relation of earthquakes in
Iran and Japan in these epicentral distances.
around Tehran. The main uncertainties are unavoidable be-
cause of the lack of data for large earthquakes in Tehran.
Moreover, to develop magnitude-scaling relations for
earthquakes, two Pmax and A × Pmax parameters within the
initial 3 s of P-wave arrival are used. In general, according to
the results presented in equations (10) and (11), the estimated
magnitude based on the A × Pmax approach produce more
accurate results than Pmax in more than 70% of records,
which increases to about 90% of records for waveforms with
magnitudes larger than 5. Therefore, the corresponding scal-
ing relation provided in equation (11) can be used in a pilot
EWS in Tehran to provide a quick and robust estimation of
earthquake magnitude with a standard deviation of less than
0:5 units of magnitude.
Generally, this study presents empirical relations for the
estimation of an earthquake epicentral distance and magni-
tude based on the B − Δ algorithm within any specified time
window after P-wave arrival time (e.g., 3 s). The time win-
dow of 3 s is assumed to be large enough to produce accept-
able results for the magnitude range under study here.
However, for larger-magnitude earthquakes in which rupture
duration reaches more than 10 s, many investigators do not
share the same idea and are not sure whether the seismic mo-
tion within several seconds after P-wave arrival contains all
the information on the overall fracture process (e.g., Iio,
1992; Ellsworth and Beroza, 1995; Mori and Kanamori,
1996; Shibazaki and Matsu’ura, 1998; Nakatani et al., 2000).
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R. Heidari
For instance, Hoshiba et al. (2011) and Colombelli et al.
(2012, 2015) indicated that 3 s of P-wave time windows
is too short for EWS purposes for large earthquakes. In fact,
the time windows used for the estimation of the scaling re-
lations should be considered next to the radius of the shadow
region (regions near the epicenter of the earthquake), which
is about 3.5 km for each second after arrival of the P wave.
Data and Resources
Accelerometers and information used in the present
study are extracted from the Iran Building and Housing Re-
search Center (BHRC) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
reports (http://earthquake.usgs.gov, last accessed January
2015). The data can be received from the BHRC website
(http://www.bhrc.ac.ir, last accessed March 2015). Figures
are prepared using Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB v.R2010b;
www.mathworks.com/products/, last accessed March 2015),
and data processing is performed using Seismic Analysis
Code (https://ds.iris.edu/ds/nodes/dmc/software/downloads/
sac, last accessed July 2013).
Acknowledgments
The author expresses his deepest gratitude to the Building and Housing
Research Center (BHRC) of Iran for providing the required data in the cur-
rent study; and his immense appreciation to F. Saleh, H. Mahyari, and R.
Norouzi from the Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization
(TDMMO) and S. Imamura from the Japan International Cooperation
 Quick Estimation of the Magnitude and Epicentral Distance Using the P Wave for Earthquakes in Iran
Figure 6. (a) Probability cumulative function of the error in es-
timating the magnitude of earthquakes with focal distances below
150 km for time windows of 3 s based on equations (10) and (11).
(b) Probability cumulative function of the error in estimating the
magnitude of earthquakes with magnitude larger than Mw 5.
Agency (JICA) for their constructive assistance. I would also like to thank
Diane I. Doser and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive com-
ments and useful suggestions.
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Department of Geophysics, Science and Research Branch
Islamic Azad University
1477893855, Tehran, Iran
r.heidari@srbiau.ac.ir
Manuscript received 12 November 2015;
Published Online 29 December 2015