9/14/2022

TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESMENT

REPORT
MURANG’A PETROL SERVICE STATION
DEVELOPMENT
Table of Contents
1.0 THE PROJECT ............................................................................................................................ 2
1.1. Description and location .............................................................................................................. 2

1.2. Proposed Accesses ......................................................................................................................... 3

2.0 DEVELOPMENT LAND U S E AND PARKING DEMAND ................................................................ 4

2.1 Land use .............................................................................................................................................. 4

2.1.1 Land Use Strategy .......................................................................................................................... 4

2.2 Development parking demand.......................................................................................................... 5

2.2.1 General parking demand ............................................................................................................... 5

3.0 DESIGN REQUIREMENTS ....................................................................................................... 6

4.0 VOLUME TRAFFIC SURVEYS ............................................................................................... 6
4.1 Data collection.................................................................................................................................... 6

4.2 Survey Methodology and Analyses criteria .............................................................................. 7

4.3 Traffic Forecasting .............................................................................................................................. 8

4.3.1 Normal Traffic Volume and Composition ..................................................................................... 8

4.3.2 Floor Areas and Traffic generation rates ..................................................................................... 10

4.4 Growth Rate................................................................................................................................... 10

4.4.1 National licensed vehicles growth trends.................................................................................... 11

4.4.2 Growth in GDP ....................................................................................................................... 13

4.4.3 Applicable growth rates ................................................................................................................ 13

4.5 Classification of traffic ..................................................................................................................... 13

4.5.1 Normal Traffic.............................................................................................................................. 13

4.5.2 Diverted Traffic ............................................................................................................................ 14

4.5.3 Generated Traffic ......................................................................................................................... 14

4.6 Future Traffic Calculation ................................................................................................................ 14

5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................... 17

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1.0 THE PROJECT

1.1. Description and location

The proposed petrol station is located along Thika-Kenol (A2) road, on plot number
MAKUYU/KIMORORI/BLOCK VI/(KATHANGI)/2446 (290673.10 m E, 9895233.65 m S) in
Kenol, Murang’a County. The proposed petrol station will attract traffic plying along Kenol-Thika
side of the dual carriageway road and its environs. The study will also entail traffic volume
analyses and delay studies for traffic emanating from Gathanje Estate to ascertain its impact on the
development and come up with an informed junction design.
Figure 1: Location map

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1.2. Proposed Accesses
An access and an exit point to the development by the traffic traversing Kenol-Thika (A2) road
have been proposed as shown in figure 2 below

Figure 2: Proposed access points to the development

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2.0 DEVELOPMENT LAND U SE AND PARKING DEMAND

2.1 Land use

The proposed service station will be comprised of, a 4-legged canopy with 4 fuelling
points, 1 kerosene fuelling point, supermarket, restaurant, carwash and service centre land-
uses. A breakdown o f the proposed land use by intensity is presented i n Table below while
the detailed development scheme Master Plan is provided in Appendix A

2.1.1 Land Use Strategy

Table 1: Land Use

Development land use Unit Quantity

Forecourt (4 Fuelling points) Quantity 1
Kerosene Fuelling Point Quantity 1
Supermarket Sqm 127.575
Restaurant Sqm 84.567
Tank Farm Quantity 1
Auxiliary Services Sqm 63.36

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2.2 Development parking demand

2.2.1 General parking demand

Table 2: General Parking Demand

The parking demand for the proposed s e r v i c e station is tabulated i n table below
Land use Parking demand
Forecourt (4 fuelling points) 0
Kerosene fuelling point 0
Supermarket 10
Restaurant 5
Carwash 2
Service bay 3
Tank farm (truck offloading point) 0

The parking requirements for individuals with disability for each parking location are
determined using the rates defined by the American with Disability Act (ADA) as presented in
the Table 3 below.
Table 3: General Parking Demand

Demand/Supply Requirements
1-26 1
26-50 2
51-75 3
76-100 4
101-150 5
151-200 6
201-300 7
301-400 8
401-500 9
501-1000 2 percent of the total
1001 and over 20 plus 1 for each 100 over 1000

Source: ADA, Accessibility Guidelines for Buildings and Facilities (ADAAG, 2002).
Based on the above estimates, the development will require a total of not less than 1 parking
spaces dedicated to people with disabilities for the convenient shop

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3.0 DESIGN REQUIREMENTS
In accordance to KENHA requirements, private developments along the major roads which
demand dedicated access road to enter into and leave the facilities need to carry out the traffic
flow data. This data is important in the determination of the road design i.e. need to have storage
lane as integral part of the road at the location of branching off onto the proposed developments
or just to have easy off the main road lanes thus forming deceleration and acceleration lanes.

The above requirements form a basis for the Access road design and is important when one takes
into consideration the comfort, convenience and safety when entering or leaving the premises
developed along the main road. Circumstances where the motor vehicles are required to slow
down prior to turning onto the locations of interests may result into traffic snail up and
eventually lead to traffic jam for about 4-5 minutes only.

The proposed development is expected to have some impact on the existing road network. The
extent of the impact is expected to be experienced at the access to the proposed service station.

The proposed access to the service station to be carried out by the Developer who will ease the
traffic access to the station. The Developer will do acceleration and deceleration lanes (85M and
3.5M wide lane each) to ease access into and out of the station. The developer will also redesign
the junction to Gathanje Estate and incorporate it in the acceleration lane. In addition, the
drainage along the deceleration and acceleration lanes will be done to cater for storm drainage
from the station.
4.0 VOLUME TRAFFIC SURVEYS

4.1 Data collection

The site for the proposed fuel service station is adjoined by Thika-Kenol (A2) road on the Kenol-
Thika side which runs in a north-easterly towards Kenol from Thika. Currently, Thika-Kenol
(A2) is a 4 lane, dual carriageway road which is under periodic maintenance by the Kenya
National Highways Authority (KeNHA).
Data collection survey was undertaken from 5th of September through to 11th September 2022
for sixteen (16) hours, i.e. from 6:30am – 10:30pm at 2 Locations shown in Figure 4 below.

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Figure 4: Traffic survey locations

1. Gathanje Estate at the Jn Thika-Kenol (A2) Road and feeder road from Gathanje Estate;
2. Near the site along Thika-Kenol Road for the south-easterly bound traffic i.e Kenol-Thika
The locations were selected because they would give a clear depiction of traffic flowing from
Kenol –Thika, into and out of Gathanje Estate. Also, these locations are the most critical in
evaluating the current and future traffic operating Levels of Service (LOS) and highway
capacities for the proposed developments.

4.2 Survey Methodology and Analyses criteria

Classified volume counts were carried out manually, with enumerators placed at the two traffic
count stations in order to determine the flow of traffic for the South-Westerly bound traffic and
the traffic emanating from Gathanje Estate
Traffic classification was necessary to establish the level of utilization, distribution, and supply
of traffic. Hourly traffic counts, separated for each vehicle class and direction of travel, were
made at each of the census stations. Motorized Transport (MT) traffic was classified according
to the following types;

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Table 4: Classification of motorized traffic

Vehicle Category Description

Motor cycles All mopeds and other motor cycle
Cars Includes saloon cars, station wagon passenger cars.
Matatus and Minibuses All public service mini-buses with seating capacity less than 45
Buses All public service buses with seating capacity more than 45
Light Goods Vehicles (LGV) All trucks with maximum laden weight of 5 tonnes
Medium Goods Vehicles All trucks with 2 axles and laden weight more than 5 tonnes
(MGV)
Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) All trucks with 3 – 7 axles
Other Vehicles Tractors, construction equipment, etc

4.3 Traffic Forecasting

4.3.1 Normal Traffic Volume and Composition

Traffic analysis was undertaken for each census station and the results used to describe traffic
characteristics along the project roads. The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) was calculated as the
average flow for the 7 days in which traffic counts were carried out. The figures obtained were
then corrected for 24-hour flows using 24/12-hour traffic flow factors determined from Future
traffic conditions.

Table 5: Gathanje Estate at the Jn Thika-Kenol (A2) Road and feeder road from Gathanje
Estate;

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 05/09/2022 06/09/2022 07/09/2022 08/09/2022 09/09/2022 10/09/2022 11/09/2022 Total Average per day
MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY
Motocycle 91 68 70 122 135 205 183 874 125
Tuk Tuk 2 3 0 0 0 2 1 8 1
Small Cars 132 174 150 188 183 242 200 1269 181
Large (4wds) 14 30 22 19 35 30 32 182 26
Matatu 6 6 10 9 11 9 5 56 8
Minibus 5 4 2 2 2 3 0 18 3
Large Bus 1 4 6 11 8 31 0 61 9
Pick up & Vans 13 13 10 9 8 13 8 74 11
Light Goods 9 8 4 4 6 16 3 50 7
Medium Goods 1 17 11 8 15 1 0 53 8
Trucks 3 Axle 5 6 1 3 11 0 0 26 4
Trucks > 3 Axles 1 2 0 3 0 0 0 6 1
Tractors 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 5 1
Total 280 336 286 379 414 555 432 2682 383

Table 6: Near the site along Thika-Kenol Road for the south-easterly bound traffic i.e Kenol-
Thika
05/09/2022 06/09/2022 07/09/2022 08/09/2022 09/09/2022 10/09/2022 11/09/2022 Total Average per day
MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY
Motocycle 735 932 782 796 912 1000 864 6021 860
Tuk Tuk 299 315 340 271 367 341 263 2196 314
Small Cars 3250 3008 3380 3304 3660 3635 3757 23994 3428
Large (4wds) 732 729 660 583 877 695 1302 5578 797
Matatu 1815 2390 1762 1781 2083 2273 2196 14300 2043
Minibus 21 92 25 34 60 70 83 385 55
Large Bus 53 223 94 117 131 289 226 1133 162
Pick up & Vans 578 771 587 743 851 984 1050 5564 795
Light Goods 246 90 78 171 267 366 292 1510 216
Medium Goods 714 664 732 818 680 682 609 4899 700
Trucks 3 Axle 201 195 88 262 161 199 169 1275 182
Trucks > 3 Axles 107 173 125 142 130 169 168 1014 145
Tractors 13 4 16 1 5 6 3 48 7
Total 8764 9586 8669 9023 10184 10709 10982 67917 9702

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4.3.2 Floor Areas and Traffic generation rates
The proposed Shell Petrol Station will be a mixed-use development. Table 7 below shows the
gross floor areas and usage.
Table 7: Proposed floor uses and areas

Floor use Area (M2)

1 Supermarket 127.575

2 Restaurant 84.567

3 Fuel Station 192

Generated/attracted traffic due to the developments was computed using the proposed Gross
Floor Areas (GFA) in accordance with the recommended traffic generation rates by the Institute
of Transportation Engineers (ITE) of the United States of America. The traffic generation rates in
Table 4 are considered conservative as car ownership and usage rates in the United States of
America are much higher than in Kenya. It is therefore reasonable to expect better actual levels
of service (LOS) if acceptable theoretical LOS is computed using the Highway Capacity Manual
(HCM) approach.

Table 8: Generated Trips

Generated Trips (Vph)
Area
Land use and Morning Time Peak Hour Evening Time Peak Hour
Units (m2)/Ro
Code
oms In Out Pass by In Out Pass by

Supermarket Rooms 127.575 32 32 2 32 33 0

Restaurant Rooms 84.567 15 15 3 20 20 1
Fueling Station m2 192 145 145 15 145 145 8

The proposed development is expected to take place from September 2022 to March 2023. The
daily traffic for the two census points is accumulated and projections for the average daily traffic
made for 10 and 15 years.

4.4 Growth Rate

The choice of the appropriate growth rate to be used in the traffic projection was a factor of
national socio-economic profiles and trends in both national and county development.
A comparative study was done for available data (2012-2016) on the various contributors to
generated traffic which informed the % growth of traffic.

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In order to determine the traffic growth rates to be used in forecasting future traffic, data from
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) on national licensed vehicles trend over the years
and economic growth were also used to project traffic.

4.4.1 National licensed vehicles growth trends

Data on National vehicles growth trends was obtained from the Kenya National Bureau of
Statistics (KNBS). The extracted KNBS statistics show annual data on licensed vehicles between
year 2006 and 2016. The data is shown in the table 3.4.2.1.

Table 9: Licensed vehicles data

Utilities, Panels, Lorries, Trucks, Buses and

Year Cars Trailers
Vans, Pick-ups and Heavy vans Mini Buses
2006 372530 195153 69716 50242 40010
2007 410812 202671 75347 55997 41803
2008 450137 209628 81285 61886 43485
2009 499679 219901 91431 84844 27039
2010 553397 226876 96355 89708 29418
2011 591958 234427 100180 91627 32002
2012 644805 242372 108001 93343 35763
2013 709812 252188 117570 95644 39736
2014 779256 277324 128251 98067 42661
2015 847745 290702 142036 100990 46566
2016 906358 303924 151668 103268 53802
Source: Economic Survey, 2020, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning and
National Development
*Data for the year individual vehicles classes for 2017-2020 not released in report.
The exponential growth rate model was adopted for the analysis of the above data.

The model is given by Yt  Yo 1  i  where;

t

Yt  Traffic volume in year t

Yo  The traffic volume in the base year

i  Growth rate

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It is difficult to model the equation in its current form. The equation can be converted to linear
form by taking its natural logarithm as follows:-

LNYt  LNYo  tLN 1  i 

By plotting LNYt against t , the gradient of the line of best fit is equal to LN 1  i  . The rate of
growth can therefore be calculated as:-

gradient (m)  LN 1  i  or e m  1  i  , therefore i  e m  1

Table 10: Licensed vehicles growth factors

Vehicle Type Growth Rate (%)
Cars 8.95
Utilities, Panels, Vans, Pick-ups 4.40
Lorries, Trucks, and Heavy vans 7.64
Buses and Mini Buses 6.93
Trailers 2.56
Average 6.10

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Table 11: Earnings from road traffic
Year Passenger traffic Growth rate (%) Freight traffic Growth rate (%)
2014 313031 - 282695 -
2015 322161 2.92 306884 8.56
2016 331512 2.90 331370 7.98
2017 348,537 5.14 349,740 5.54
2018 390,570 12.059 392,530 12.23
2019 436,320 11.71 440,125 12.13
AAGR (%) 5.79 7.74
Average 6.8%
Source: KNBS, Economic Survey 2020
4.4.2 Growth in GDP
Table 3.4.4.1 below shows the Growth in GDP between 2012 and 2019. The growth rate of the
economy has shown upward trend between 2012 and 2018.

Table 12: Growth in GDP

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GDP Growth 4.6 5.9 5.4 5.7 5.9 4.8 6.3 5.4
(%)

Source: KNBS, Economic Survey 2020

4.4.3 Applicable growth rates

The growth trend of licensed vehicles and that of Earnings from road traffic is found to be
consistent with the economic growth rate. The average growth rate of licensed vehicles is 6.1%
while the GDP growth rate in 2019 is 5.4%. The average growth rate of Earnings from road
traffic is 6.8%. Therefore, a mean growth rate of 6.0% is considered reasonable for projecting
future traffic for design. A low traffic growth rate of 5.0% is proposed as it is unlikely that the
economy will experience a decline in the growth rate with the fiscal policies that are currently
in place. A high growth rate of 7.0%, 1% above the mean is also proposed.

4.5 Classification of traffic

4.5.1 Normal Traffic
Normal traffic is that traffic currently using the road, and expected to continue using the road
after being improved. Future growth of this traffic component was defined as the rate pertaining
prior to the road’s improvement.

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4.5.2 Diverted Traffic
Diverted Traffic is that traffic that will find the improved road more attractive and convenient
than the one they are currently using. It was noted that there were very low chances of traffic
diverting from other roads to this road since the other roads had been initially upgraded to
bitumen standard. Further, this road traverses a hilly terrain with low design speeds and thus
increased travel time discourages diverted traffic.

4.5.3 Generated Traffic

Generated traffic is the additional vehicle travel that results from the road improvements. It
includes induced and converted motor traffic components. Converted traffic was considered as
that changing its mode of travel from say Rail to Road or non-motorized to motorized. Since the
area is only accessible by road and considering the most of the journeys are locally based, I
considered converted traffic to be insignificant in the analysis.

Induced traffic was considered as that traffic that would be entirely new and never existed before
due to increased accessibility of the area. It was noted that there is a possibility of developments
attracted by the improved condition of the road. These would comprise of market centres,
residential houses, institutions and increased commercial farming activities. From the socio-
economic analysis of the region, I considered generated traffic to constitute 6.0% (Average GDP
growth rate) of the year 2019.

4.6 Future Traffic Calculation

Using average traffic collected in the seven days, a projected traffic (projected ADT) was
calculated as shown below. Projected traffic was considered for the next 10 years.

An exponential growth of traffic shall be anticipated and estimated using the formula below:
Tn=T0 (1+r)n

Where Tn – Traffic Volume in year n after census

T0 – Traffic Volume for year of census

r – Annual growth rate expressed as a decimal fraction n – Number of Growth year

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Table 13: Estimated traffic growth rates for normal traffic

Growth rate
Period Vehicle category
Low Medium High
2018-2019 Motor cycles 6 8 10
Cars 6 8 10
4WD, Vans & Pick-ups 6 8 10
Matatu 5 6.5 9
Bus 5 6.5 9
LGV 4.2 5.6 6.4
MGV 4.2 5.6 6.4
HGV 4.2 5.6 6.4
Trailers 4.2 5.6 6.4
Others 4.2 5.6 6.4
2020-2024 Motor cycles 5.4 7.2 9
Cars 5.4 7.2 9
4WD, Vans & Pick-ups 5.4 7.2 9
Matatu 4.5 5.9 8.1
Bus 4.5 5.9 8.1
LGV 3.78 5.04 5.8
MGV 3.78 5.04 5.8
HGV 3.78 5.04 5.8
Trailers 3.78 5.04 5.8
Others 3.78 5.04 5.8
2025-2034 Motor cycles 4.3 5.8 7.2
Cars 4.3 5.8 7.2
4WD, Vans & Pick-ups 4.3 5.8 7.2
Matatu 3.6 4.7 6.5
Bus 3.6 4.7 6.5
LGV 3.02 4.03 4.6
MGV 3.02 4.03 4.6
HGV 3.02 4.03 4.6
Trailers 3.02 4.03 4.6
Others 3.02 4.03 4.6

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Total traffic in March 2023 when the development is expected to be complete and operational
was computed as the sum of generated and forecasted normal traffic at a 6% growth rate
indicated on the table above between years 2022-2037.

Table 14: Estimated traffic growth rates for normal traffic

Gathanje Estate at the Jn Thika-Kenol (A2) Road and feeder road from Gathanje Estate;
Projected Projected Projected
Base Traffic Traffic after Traffic after Traffic after
Vehicle Type
(2022) 5 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs
(2027) (2032) (2037)
Motocycle 125 167 224 299
Tuk Tuk 1 2 2 3
Small Cars 181 243 325 434
Large (4wds) 26 35 47 62
Matatu 8 11 14 19
Minibus 3 3 5 6
Large Bus 9 12 16 21
Pick up & Vans 11 14 19 25
Light Goods 7 10 13 17
Medium Goods 8 10 14 18
Trucks 3 Axle 4 5 7 9
Trucks > 3 Axles 1 1 2 2
Tractors 1 1 1 2
Total N umber of Vehicles 383 513 686 918

Near the site along Thika-Kenol Road for the south-easterly bound traffic i.e Kenol-Thika

Projected Projected Projected

Base Traffic Traffic after Traffic after Traffic after
Vehicle Type
(2022) 5 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs
(2027) (2032) (2037)
Motocycle 860 1151 1540 2061
Tuk Tuk 314 420 562 752
Small Cars 3428 4587 6139 8215
Large (4wds) 797 1066 1427 1910
Matatu 2043 2734 3658 4896
Minibus 55 74 98 132
Large Bus 162 217 290 388
Pick up & Vans 795 1064 1423 1905
Light Goods 216 289 386 517
Medium Goods 700 937 1253 1677
Trucks 3 Axle 182 244 326 437
Trucks > 3 Axles 145 194 259 347
Tractors 7 9 12 16
Total Number of Vehicles 9702 12984 17376 23252

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 Junction analysis
There is an intersection between Thika-Kenol (A2) Road and the access road to Gathanje Estate.
Traffic getting into and out of Gathanje estate bring about two types of maneuvers i.e. traffic
flowing from Kenol-Thika diverge into Gathanje estate whereas traffic from Gathanje Estate
merge into the traffic flowing from Kenol-Thika creating a T-Junction as shown in the figure
below.

The average daily traffic emanating from Gathanje Estate for the base year (2022) is 383, while
the year 10 (2032) and year 15 (2037) are 686 and 918 respectively. The existing road is
gravelled. The existing junction will be improved to contain a left turn lane, a deceleration lane
and Converging section and since the AADT of the left turning traffic in design year 10 is greater
than 800 PCUs. This will allow for marginal access which only allows left in and/or left out
movements to and from the estate.

5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Based on the study, the average daily traffic along Kenol-Thika for the base year (2022) is 9,702,
while the year 10 (2032) and year 15 (2037) are 17,376 and 23,252 respectively.

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In future (March 2023), the attracted/generated traffic Muranga Petrol Station will be marginal
and this will not affect the operating levels of service of the Thika- Kenol (A2) Road.
Also, since Thika-Kenol is already dual, the flow of traffic is smooth but to further decongest the
road there will require an additional lane given that the above traffic volume count already
elucidates that the road is quite congested. However, for safe and effective manoeuvrability of
the attracted/generated trips to the Shell Petrol Station development, proper road marking of the
acceleration and deceleration lanes and with channelization islands to separate lanes for easy
manoeuvrability at the intersections between Thika- Kenol (A2) Road and the access roads.
Juction analysis

It is concluded that the exiting and merging traffic can be well accommodated and served by the
provided acceleration and deceleration lanes.

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