materials

5, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 16

Article
Evaluation of Corrosion
strength evaluation. Residual
Additionally, three Life
deterministic and Prediction
probabilistic Methods
models were in- for
Metal Pipelines
troduced by Markus R. Dann et al. [11] to account for the sizing bias present in in-line
inspection data for corrosion growth analysis.
Category ➂ is based on historical statistical data such as corrosion rate and remaining
Lili Zuo 1 , Chunlei Zeng 2, *, Xingqiao Hu 3 , Shengjie Du 1 , Yun Zhao 2 and Fan Fei 4
thickness, using different modeling theories and methods to explore the change rules in
the historical data, and extrapolating the data in the timeline to predict the residual life of
1
the pipeline. The Modeling methods
National andLaboratory
Engineering theories for used in this
Pipeline kind
Safety, MOEof Keyresearch
Laboratory mainly
of Petroleum Engineering, Beijing
include the BP neural network Key Laboratory
modelingof Urban Oil and gray
method, Gas Distribution Technology,method,
theory modeling China University
expo- of Petroleum (Beijing),
Beijing 102249, China
nential smoothing method 2
and time series prediction method. Using the grey theory, Yu
China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing 100088, China
X C et al. [12] proposed 3 effectively predicting
Beijing Gas Group Co., Ltd.,the corrosion
Beijing 100035,rate
Chinavia the complex mapping
relationship between 4theNational corrosion rate and
Petroleum and the corrosion
Natural Gas Pipeinfluencing
Network Group factors
Beijingin the water
Pipeline Co., Ltd., Beijing 100101, China
injection pipeline. At *the Correspondence:
same time, to zengchunlei@wti.ac.cn
improve the prediction accuracy, the standard GM
(1,1) model was reasonably improved, in order to predict the change trend of the corrosion
rate with time. WangAbstract: H T et al.The [13] used the
analysis of thecubic
basicexponential
characteristics smoothing
of variousmethod
researchto es-
methods is highly needed to
tablish the predictionpredict model the of the pipeline
residual life ofcorrosion
the pipeline rate, fitted and
accurately, predicted
help managersthe corro- the operational risks,
understand
sion rate data, and obtained and provide thea most
referencereasonable weight
for developing coefficient
pipeline in the prediction
transportation and maintenance inspection plans
model α. Then, through andthe comparative
anti-corrosion analysis
measures. with
Based onthe primary exponential
a comprehensive smooth-
investigation of the existing research on the
ing method and the quadratic residual life exponential
of the pipeline, smoothing
this papermethod,
finds that itthe was concluded
current mainstream thatlifetheprediction method, based
cubic exponential smoothing method has higher prediction accuracy and that the
on historical statistical data, has the shortcomings of inconsistent modeling methods, inconsistentpre-
dicted value is consistent basicwith
data, the
andactual
a lack of value. Kevin evaluation
comparative S et al. [14] utilized
among historical
methods. Moreover,exca-considering the in-depth
vation and recoat information study of BP to neural
identify static defects
network modeling, and quantify
grey systemic bias
theory modeling, time between
series modeling, and exponential
inspections. To reduce differences
smoothing in reporting
modeling, optimal and the analyst
prediction models interpretation of the rec-
using different methods based on the same historical
orded magnetic signals, novel analysis techniques were employed to normalize the
data are established. These optimal modeling methods are discussed, and the feasible modeling data
sets against each other. pathTheforresulting
the accurate uncertainty
predictionof of the corrosionresidual
the pipeline’s growthlife rates was by
is given then comparing the prediction
further reduced by deriving accuracyand applying
of each model. aInregression
addition, the model to reduce
findings serve asthe effect
a guide forofdeveloping
the an anti-corrosion
different sizing models and the
strategy byidentified
highlighting systemic bias. Liu XofNthe
the contribution [15] established
prediction the of
results quan-
the residual life to pipeline
titative
Citation: Zuo, L.; Zeng, relationship
C.; Hu, X.; between corrosionBy
decision-making. residual
comparison,life and
it iscorrosion
found thatrate, coefficient
the accuracy of theof vari-
four prediction models is as
ation,
Du, S.; Zhao, corrosion
Y.; Fei, F. Evaluation ofallowance and reliability, and obtained the calculation formula
follows: the grey theory prediction model, the exponential smoothing prediction to deter- model, the BP neural
mine the
Corrosion Residual corrosion residual
Life Prediction network life. Zhang X
prediction S et al.
model, and[16]
theanalyzed
time seriesthe feasibility
prediction of building
model, from higha to low, respectively.
Methods forgrey
Metal theory
Pipelines.model, established a GM (1,1) model with optimized parameters, changed the

initial
Materials 2022, conditions
15, 5624. https:// of the model, and
Keywords: predicted
corroded pipeline;theresidual
corrosion depth of anti-corrosion;
life prediction; submarine pipelines.
BP neural network; inspection data
doi.org/10.3390/ma15165624
According to the predicted corrosion depth, the Markov model was used to quantitatively
analyze
Academic Editor: Jose M.the future corrosion state of the submarine pipeline and predict its residual life.
Bastidas
Xiao W et al. [17] determined the corrosion risk prediction method suitable for the Tahe
Received: 19 May 2022
Oilfield by comparing 1. the application scope, reliability and economy of five common
Introduction
Accepted: 10 August 2022
pipeline corrosion risk prediction methods.ofThe
A great number classical
statistics show BPthatneural network
corrosion algorithm
defects are the main factors caus-
Published: 16 August 2022
was optimized with the help of a genetic algorithm, which effectively
ing pipeline accidents. Corrosion severely restricts pipeline improves the capacity
accu- and increases the
Publisher’sracy and reliability
Note: MDPI stays neutral of the BP neural network. Yao Q [18] used the historical data collected
expenditure of capital. For high-pressure, burnable, and detonatable oil and gas pipelines,
with regardon site, combined
to jurisdictional claims inwith the characteristics of the corrosion problem, and adopted the time
once corrosion failure occurs, the consequences are very serious. Therefore, it is of great
published maps
series model to affil-
and institutional predict the corrosion rate. Onthe thiscorrosion
basis, he condition
used the Monte Carlo method
significance to master and residual life of pipelines to facilitate
iations.
to evaluate the residual life of the equipment,
transportation, maintenance andplans
judged andthe residual service
anticorrosive life of the
measures.
equipment through the statistics In recent of years,
the corrosion
there hasfailure
been an probability
increasingofemphasis
the equipment, so
on the prediction of the residual
as to obtain the residual life of the equipment.
life of corroded pipelines. Current research methods mainly fall into three categories. In
Compared
Copyright: © 2022 by the authors.
with category category
➀,, the pipeline③ corrosion
can reflectrate theisrelationship
regarded asofancorrosion
uncertainde- and random value, and
gree with time
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. more directly.
the residualMeanwhile,
life of the compared
corroded with
pipeline category
has been②, category
predicted ③
by can
studying the distribution
directly provide
This article is an open access article the residual
model life
of of
the the pipeline
maximum under
corrosion the current
depth corrosion
data, which condition,
mainly but
includes GEV distribution,
not the reliability
distributed under the terms and or Gumbel
failure distribution,
probability of Frechet
the distribution,
residual life. At and Weibull
present, most distribution.
of the re- Zhang X S et al. [1]
searches who
conditions of the Creative Commons prefer established
category ③ a
of residual
methods life
focusprediction
on the model
selection ofofcorroded
modeling oil and
methods gas pipelines based on
Attribution and
(CC BY)theories. improved GEV distribution. Firstly, the
However, the lack of comparative studies using the same basic statistical
license (https:// Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method
data and different modeling
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ was used to estimate
methods the parameters
and theories makes itof the GEV distribution
challenging to objectively function
and and determine the
4.0/). quantitatively assess type of extreme
the benefits and value distribution.
drawbacks of theWhen the graphic
prediction accuracytest of was found to be reasonable,
each
method. Based on the same basic statistical data, this study uses a variety of modeling

Materials 2022, 15, 5624. https://doi.org/10.3390/ma15165624 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/materials

 tion model of the maximum corrosion depth data, which mainly includes GEV distribu-
tion, Gumbel distribution, Frechet distribution, and Weibull distribution. Zhang X S et al.
[1] established a residual life prediction model of corroded oil and gas pipelines based on
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 improved GEV distribution. Firstly, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method2 was of 16
used to estimate the parameters of the GEV distribution function and determine the type
of extreme value distribution. When the graphic test was found to be reasonable, then the
distribution could be used to predict the maximum corrosion depth. Secondly, a corrosion
then the distribution could be used to predict the maximum corrosion depth. Secondly, a
allowance prediction model was established based on the reliability and safety of the pipe-
corrosion allowance prediction model was established based on the reliability and safety
line. Finally, according to the data of the maximum corrosion depth, corrosion allowance
of the pipeline. Finally, according to the data of the maximum corrosion depth, corrosion
and annual service life of the pipeline, the relationship index model of the three was es-
allowance and annual service life of the pipeline, the relationship index model of the three
tablished to predict the residual life of the pipeline. Based on Gumbel distribution, Zhang
was established to predict the residual life of the pipeline. Based on Gumbel distribution,
X S et al. [2] processed the maximum corrosion depth data randomly selected from the
Zhang X S et al. [2] processed the maximum corrosion depth data randomly selected
inspection data of an oil and gas pipeline, established the prediction model of the maxi-
from the inspection data of an oil and gas pipeline, established the prediction model
mum corrosion depth of the pipeline, and then estimated the value of the parameters of
of the maximum corrosion depth of the pipeline, and then estimated the value of the
the prediction
parameters of model with themodel
the prediction Markov with Chain Monte Carlo
the Markov Chain(MCMC)
Monte Carlomethod and predicted
(MCMC) method
the possible maximum corrosion depth through
and predicted the possible maximum corrosion depth through the model. Hence, the model. Hence, based on the obtainedbased
corrosion
on the obtained depth, critical
corrosion corrosion
depth, depthcritical and pipelinedepth
corrosion serviceand lifepipeline
and other data, the
service liferela-
and
tionship
other data, indexthe model
relationshipbetween indexthemodel
three was established
between the three to was
predict the residual
established life of the
to predict oil
and gas pipelines. Wang R et al. [3,4] realized the scientific
residual life of oil and gas pipelines. Wang R et al. [3,4] realized the scientific evaluation evaluation and prediction of
the
andcorrosion
prediction status
of the and operation
corrosion of offshore
status oil and gas
and operation pipelinesoilbyand
of offshore utilizing Frechet
gas pipelines
extreme value distribution to establish the prediction
by utilizing Frechet extreme value distribution to establish the prediction model of themodel of the maximum corrosion
depth
maximum of offshore
corrosion oil depth
and gas ofpipelines,
offshore oil combined it with thecombined
and gas pipelines, Monte Carlo (MC)
it with themethod
Monte
to estimate the parameter value of the prediction model
Carlo (MC) method to estimate the parameter value of the prediction model and predict and predict the possible maxi-the
mum corrosion depth, and analyzed and predicted the
possible maximum corrosion depth, and analyzed and predicted the maximum probability maximum probability of pipe wall
corrosion
of pipe wall through
corrosionthe through
Markov the Chain model.
Markov Similarly,
Chain model.F.Similarly,
Caleyo etF.al.Caleyo[5] used the[5]
et al. Monte
used
Carlo
the Montesimulations to study the
Carlo simulations to probability distributions
study the probability of externalofcorrosion
distributions external pit depth
corrosion
and pit growth
pit depth and pitrate in underground
growth rate in underground pipelines pipelines
and combined a predictive
and combined pit growth
a predictive pit
model with the observed distributions of the model variables
growth model with the observed distributions of the model variables in a range of soils. in a range of soils. Depend-
ing on the pipeline
Depending age, any age,
on the pipeline of theanythree maximal
of the extreme value
three maximal extreme distributions, i.e., Weibull,
value distributions, i.e.,
Fréchet
Weibull,or Gumbel,
Fréchet can arise can
or Gumbel, as thearisebestasfitthetobest
the fit
pitting
to thedepth
pittingand rate and
depth data.rate data.
Category
Category ➁ is based based on on the
the reliability
reliabilitytheory,
theory,usingusingthe theultimate
ultimate limit
limit state
state function
function to
to establish
establish thethe mathematical
mathematical probability
probability model model of pipeline
of pipeline failure,
failure, and predict
and predict the resid-
the residual life
ual lifepipeline
of the of the pipeline
and the and the cumulative
cumulative failure probability
failure probability at a givenattime.a givenShuai time.J [6]Shuai
regardedJ [6]
various factors affecting the residual life of pipelines as
regarded various factors affecting the residual life of pipelines as random variables with random variables with different
distributions,
different and established
distributions, a mathematical
and established probability
a mathematical model to predict
probability model to pipeline
predictfailure.
pipe-
Using
line this model,
failure. Usingthe effects
this model, of corrosion
the effectsrate, defect depth,
of corrosion rate,pipe walldepth,
defect thickness, pipeandwall working
thick-
pressure
ness, andon the reliability
working pressure ofonthethepipeline
reliabilitywereofstudied.
the pipelineThe corrosion
were studied. rate obtained
The corrosion from
the analysis
rate obtainedcan from reasonably
the analysis predict the safety status
can reasonably predict of the safety
whole status
pipeline. of theYu whole
S R et al. pipe-[7]
line. Yu S R et al. [7] established a probability model for predicting the residual life on
established a probability model for predicting the residual life of pipeline corrosion based of
the shell-92
pipeline deterministic
corrosion basedmodel.
on theThe Monte
shell-92 Carlo methodmodel.
deterministic was used ThetoMonte
calculate Carlothe method
residual
life of
was theto
used pipeline
calculate and theitsresidual
cumulative life of distribution
the pipeline function, and the parameter
and its cumulative distribution sensitivity
func-
analysis
tion, andwas carried out.sensitivity
the parameter The mainanalysis parameters was affecting
carried out. the The
corrosion residual lifeaffect-
main parameters of the
buried
ing thepipeline
corrosion and their variation
residual life of the with the service
buried pipelinetimeand were discussed.
their variation Alma with Valor
the et al. [8]
service
derived different corrosion rate distributions from various
time were discussed. Alma Valor et al. [8] derived different corrosion rate distributionscorrosion growth models and used
these to perform reliability analyses of underground pipelines.
from various corrosion growth models and used these to perform reliability analyses of Hu Q F et al. [9] proposed
a nonlinear prediction
underground pipelines.model Hu Q for F etthe al. maximum
[9] proposed corrosion
a nonlineardepth of gas pipelines
prediction model for under
the
different sample independence by using the Bayesian
maximum corrosion depth of gas pipelines under different sample independence by using estimation method based on the
probability distribution of model parameters, and solved
the Bayesian estimation method based on the probability distribution of model parame- the model by using the MCMC
method.
ters, Luo J Hthe
and solved et model
al. [10]by used
using thethe sizeMCMC
data ofmethod.
nearly 1000 Luo Jcorrosion
H et al. [10] overhaul
used the defects
size
Materials 2022, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 16
data of nearly 1000 corrosion overhaul defects of a pipeline over the years to calculate and
of a pipeline over the years to calculate the corrosion rate distribution of the pipeline the
establish arate
corrosion probability
distribution distribution model of
of the pipeline and corrosion
establish rate. Based on the
a probability reliability model
distribution theory,
the corrosion residual life of the pipeline was predicted by using the limit defect size data
of corrosion rate. Based on the reliability theory, the corrosion residual life of the pipeline
strength
determined evaluation. Additionally,
by the corrosion residual three deterministic
strength evaluation. and probabilistic
Additionally, models
three were in-
deterministic
was predicted by using the limit defect size data determined by the corrosion residual
troduced by Markus
and probabilistic models R. Dann et al. [11] tobyaccount
were introduced Markusfor the sizing
R. Dann et al.bias
[11] present
to account in for
in-line
the
inspection
sizing bias data presentfor incorrosion growth analysis.
in-line inspection data for corrosion growth analysis.
Category ➂ is based on historical historical statistical data such as corrosion rate and remaining remaining
thickness, using using different
differentmodeling
modelingtheories theoriesand and methods
methods to to explore
explore thethe change
change rules rules
in thein
historical
the historicaldata, andand
data, extrapolating
extrapolating the data
the datain the timeline
in the timelineto predict
to predictthe theresidual
residual life life
of the of
pipeline.
the The Modeling
pipeline. The Modeling methods and theories
methods used in this
and theories usedkind of research
in this kind ofmainly research includemainly the
BP neural
include thenetwork
BP neural modeling
network method,
modeling graymethod,
theory modeling
gray theory method,
modelingexponential
method, smooth-
expo-
nential smoothing method and time series prediction method. Using the grey theory, Yu
X C et al. [12] proposed effectively predicting the corrosion rate via the complex mapping
relationship between the corrosion rate and the corrosion influencing factors in the water
injection pipeline. At the same time, to improve the prediction accuracy, the standard GM
(1,1) model was reasonably improved, in order to predict the change trend of the corrosion
 troduced by Markus R. Dann et al. [11] to account for the sizing bias present in in-line
inspection data for corrosion growth analysis.
Category ➂ is based on historical statistical data such as corrosion rate and remaining
thickness, using different modeling theories and methods to explore the change rules in
the historical data, and extrapolating the data in the timeline to predict the residual life of
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 3 of 16
the pipeline. The Modeling methods and theories used in this kind of research mainly
include the BP neural network modeling method, gray theory modeling method, expo-
nential smoothing method and time series prediction method. Using the grey theory, Yu
Xing
C etmethod
al. [12]and time series
proposed prediction
effectively method.
predicting Using therate
the corrosion greyvia theory,
the complexYu X C mapping et al. [12]
proposed effectively predicting the corrosion rate via
relationship between the corrosion rate and the corrosion influencing factors in the water the complex mapping relationship
betweenpipeline.
injection the corrosionAt therate
Materials and
2022,
same 15, the
time, tocorrosion
x FOR PEER REVIEW
improve influencing
the prediction factors
accuracy, in the thewaterstandard injection
GM
pipeline. At the same time, to improve the prediction
(1,1) model was reasonably improved, in order to predict the change trend of the corrosion accuracy, the standard GM (1,1)
rate with time. Wang H T et al. [13] used the cubic exponential smoothing method to rate
model was reasonably improved, in order to predict the change trend of the corrosion es-
with time.
tablish Wang H T model
the prediction et al. [13]of theused the cubic
pipeline exponential
corrosion tion model smoothing
rate, fittedof the and maximummethodcorrosion
predicted to
the establish
corro-depth data
the prediction
sion rate data, model of the pipeline
and obtained the most corrosion
reasonable rate,
tion, fitted
Gumbel
weight and predicted
distribution,
coefficient inthethe corrosion
Frechet
prediction rate
distribution, an
data, and obtained the most reasonable
model α. Then, through the comparative analysis[1]with weight coefficient in
established the
the primary prediction
a residualexponential model
life prediction α. Then,
smooth-model of
through the comparative analysis with the primary improvedexponential smoothing Firstly,
GEVitdistribution. methodthe and Markov C
ing method and the quadratic exponential smoothing method, was concluded that the
the quadratic exponential smoothing method, it was concluded that the cubic exponential
cubic exponential smoothing method has higherused to estimate
prediction accuracythe parameters
and that the of the pre- GEV distri
smoothing method has higher prediction accuracy and that the predicted value is con-
dicted value is consistent with the actual value. Kevin of extremeS et al.value distribution.
[14] utilized historicalWhenexca- the graphic t
sistent with the actual value. Kevin S et al. [14] utilized historical excavation and recoat
vation and recoat information to identify static defects distribution
and quantify could systemic
be used to predict
bias between the maximum
information to identify static defects and quantify systemic bias between inspections. To
inspections. To reduce differences in reporting and allowance
the analyst prediction model was
interpretation of established
the rec- based
reduce differences in reporting and the analyst interpretation of the recorded magnetic
orded magnetic signals, novel analysis techniques line.wereFinally,
employed according to the data
to normalize theofdata the maximu
signals, novel analysis techniques were employed to normalize the data sets against each
sets against each other. The resulting uncertaintyand annual
of the corrosion service life of rates
growth the pipeline,
was thenthe relatio
other. The resulting uncertainty of the corrosion growth rates was then further reduced
further reduced by deriving and applying a regression tablished to predict
model to reduce the residual
the effect lifeofofthe the pipelin
by deriving and applying a regression model to reduce the effect of the different sizing
different sizing models and the identified systemic X bias.
S et Liu
al. [2]XN processed
[15] established the maximum the quan- corrosion d
models and the identified systemic bias. Liu X N [15] established the quantitative relation-
titative relationship between corrosion residual life inspection
and corrosion data ofrate, an oil and gasof
coefficient pipeline,
vari- establi
ship between corrosion residual life and corrosion rate, coefficient of variation, corrosion
ation, corrosion allowanceand andobtained
reliability, mum corrosion depth of the pipeline, and then e
allowance and reliability, theand obtained
calculation the calculation
formula to determine formula the to deter-
corrosion
mine the corrosion residual life. Zhang X S et al. the
[16] prediction
analyzed
residual life. Zhang X S et al. [16] analyzed the feasibility of building a grey theory model, model
the with
feasibility the
of Markov
building Chain
a Mon
grey theory model,
established a GM (1,1)established
model with a GMoptimized
(1,1) modelparameters,the possible
with optimized maximum
changed parameters, corrosion
the initial changed depth
conditions the through th
initial
of theconditions
model, andofpredictedthe model, theand predicted
corrosion depth the corrosion
corrosion
of submarine depth,
depth critical
of
pipelines. submarine corrosion
According depth
pipelines. to theand pipe
predicted corrosion depth, the Markov model was used to quantitatively analyze the futurewas esta
According to the predicted corrosion depth, the tionship
Markov index
model wasmodel used between
to the
quantitatively three
analyze
corrosion thestate
future corrosion
of the submarine state pipeline
of the submarine andpipeline
and predict gasitspipelines.
and predict
residual Wang
life. R residual
its
Xiao etWal.et[3,4] al.life.realized the
[17]
Xiao W et al. [17] determined the corrosion risk the corrosion
prediction
determined the corrosion risk prediction method suitable for the Tahe Oilfield by compar- methodstatus and
suitable operation
for the of
Tahe offshore oi
Oilfield by comparing
ing the application scope, thereliability
application andscope,
economy extreme
reliability value
of five andcommon distribution
economy pipeline of five to establish
corrosioncommon risk the predic
pipeline
prediction corrosion
methods. riskThe prediction
classical methods.
BP neuralThe depth
network classicalof offshore
BP neural
algorithm wasoil network
and
optimizedgas pipelines,with thecombined
algorithm
was optimized with the help of a genetic algorithm, to
help of a genetic algorithm, which effectively improves the accuracy and reliability estimate
which the
effectively parameter improves value the ofaccu-
the
of the prediction
Materials 2022, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW
BP neural network. Yao Q [18] used the historical data collected on site, combined withpredicte
racy and reliability of the BP neural network. Yao mum
Q [18] corrosion
used the depth,
historical and analyzed
data collected and
Materials 2022, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW
on
thesite, combined with
characteristics of the thecorrosion
characteristicsproblem, of the corrosion
andcorrosion
adopted problem, through
the time seriesthe
andMarkov modelChain
adopted tothe time
predict model. Simi
series model torate.
the corrosion predict
On thisthe corrosion
basis, he used rate. the On Monte Carlo
this basis, Carlosimulations
hemethod
used thetoMonte to study
evaluate the
Carlo probability
residual distri
themethod
to evaluate
life the residualand
of the equipment, life judged
of the equipment,
strength residualand
evaluation.
the and pitlife
judged
Additionally,
service growth
the
of thethree rate
residual inservice
underground
deterministic
equipment lifeand
through of the pipelines a
probabilist
the
Materials 2022, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 16
equipment
statistics ofthrough
the corrosionthe statistics
troduced
failure of the bycorrosion
probability Markus of the model
failure
R. Dann with
equipment, et the
probability observed
strength
al.so[11]as of to the distributions
toevaluation.
account
obtain equipment,
thefor theso
residual of
Additionally, the mod
sizing th
bias
as toof
life obtain the residual life inspection
the equipment. of the equipment.data for corrosion ing on the pipeline
growth troduced age,by
analysis. any of the three
Markus R. Dann maximalet al. e[
Compared
Compared with with category
category ➀,,Category category ➂
category ③iscancan Fréchet
based reflect
reflect onthe or
the Gumbel,
inspection
relationship
historical
relationship can
statistical arise
ofdata
of as such
for
corrosion
data
corrosion thedegree
corrosionbest fitgrowth
to the rp
de-corrosion
as
strength
gree
withwithtimetime evaluation.
moremore Additionally,
directly.
directly. Meanwhile,
thickness,
Meanwhile, three deterministic
usingcompared
compared withCategory
different with and
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category probabilistic
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➁theories ②, category
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category and models
on the
is
➂methods
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provide Markus lifeR.ofDann
the residual
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historical [11]
under to account
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under
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and forcurrent
establish
the thethe
corrosion
extrapolating sizing bias
mathematical
thickness,
corrosion
the using
condition,
data present
in different
condition,
the but in
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not
timeline in-line
but
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notinspection
reliability or data
the reliability failurefor corrosion
orprobability
failure growth
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the pipeline. analysis.
of the residual of
The ualAt
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prefer Category
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who prefer ➂ is based
ofcategory
methods on ③historical
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regarded such
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studies and basic
using
timetostatistical
explore
distributions,
include
the
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same the
data
andBP
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prediction change
and
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mathemmode
Using t
modeling
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nential smoothing prediction(1,1) models.
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then
X Cdiscusses
et al. [12] the applicability
proposed effectivelyand reliability
predicting oftheeach
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rate with time. Wang H T et al. [13] used modeling
corrosion rate
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via
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shell-92
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time,data, of Metal
to improve Pipe
the prediction accuracy, the standard GM
sion rate tion,
and obtained and thetablish parameter
most sensitivity
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reasonable weight analysis
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in order
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obtained
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Wang H Ting etsmoothing
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and by using
obtained each
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with thecubic optimizing
coefficient
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et
S etal.al. [9][14]
propose
method
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through on the the same
vation basic
comparative
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information with to and
the finally
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corrosion
dicted
identify getting
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smooth-
pipelines with under
quantify thesysact
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inspections. method.
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smoothing
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and recoat
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analysis model and
To by that
using
reduce
were the the pre-MCMC
differences
employed toinmn
dicted value is consistent sets withagainst
the actual value. Kevin
data of S et
nearly al. [14]
1000
orded utilized
corrosion
magnetic
each other. The resulting uncertainty of the corrosion grow historical
overhaul
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defects
novel of
analys a
vation and recoat information further to identify
reducedstatic defects
corrosion
by deriving and
and quantify
rate sets distribution
applyingagainst systemiceach of bias
a regression other. between
the pipeline and
The resulting
model to reduest
inspections. To reduce differences different sizingin reporting
models ofandand the
the analyst
corrosion rate. Based
further
identified interpretation
reduced
systemicon the bybias. of Liu
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deriving theory,
Nand
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orded magnetic signals, novel titative analysis techniques
relationship was were
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identi
rate,
 2. Prediction Method of Residual Life of Metal Pipe
This study evaluates the application effects of the BP neural network method, grey
theory method, exponential smoothing method and time series prediction methods in
metal pipeline corrosion. The research ideas can be described as follows: establishing the
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 4 of 16
prediction model by using each modeling method, then optimizing the parameters of each
model based on the same basic statistical data, and finally getting the optimal prediction
model under each modeling method. The optimal prediction model is used for prediction,
prediction, and the results
and the prediction prediction results arewith
are compared compared with thevalues
the measured measured values the
to evaluate to evaluate
applica-
the
bility and reliability of each method. Then, the application strategy of corrosioncorrosion
applicability and reliability of each method. Then, the application strategy of life pre-
life prediction
diction resultsresults in corrosion
in corrosion prevention
prevention is discussed
is discussed (Figure(Figure
1). 1).

Figure 1. Technical
Figure 1. Technical route
routeof
ofresidual
residuallife
lifeprediction
predictionmethod
methodfor
formetal
metalpipelines.
pipelines.

For
For aa given
given metal
metal pipe,
pipe, itsits corrosion
corrosion depth
depth in the i-th
in the i-th period
period cancan be
be expressed
expressed by
by the
the
average corrosion rate:
average corrosion rate:
δ di,1 − di,2
Vi = i = d -d (1)
Ti  i T
Vi   i ,1 i i ,2 (1)
where Vi is the average corrosion rate in the i-thTperiod,
i Timm/a; δ is the corrosion depth in the i-th
i
period, mm; Ti is the length of the i-th period, a; di,1 is the pipe wall thickness at the beginning of
where Vi is the average corrosion rate in the i-th period, mm/a;  i is the corrosion depth
the i-th period, mm; and di,2 is the pipe wall thickness at the end of the i-th period, mm.
in the i-th period,
After mm;
corrosion for Tai long
is thetime
length of thecycles),
(N time i-th period, a; d i ,1 iswall
the remaining the pipe wall thickness
thickness (d) of the
at the beginning
pipeline is: of the i-th period, mm; and d i ,2 is the pipe wall thickness at the end of
N N
the i-th period, mm.
d = d0 − ∑ δi = d0 − ∑ (Vi Ti ) (2)
After corrosion for a long time (N itime
=1 cycles), ithe=1 remaining wall thickness (d) of the
pipeline is:
where d0 is the initial wall thickness of the pipeline, mm.
N N
As can be seen from Equation (2), the following two routes can be used to predict
d  d 0   i  d 0  (ViTi ) (2)
the residual life of corroded pipelines under i 1
the condition
i 1
that the minimum allowable
thickness of pipelines is determined (which can be calculated by the ultimate bearing
where d0and
capacity is the initial
other wall thickness
methods [10]). of the pipeline, mm.
Method of predicting residual wall thickness: By obtaining the remaining pipe wall
thickness at fixed periodic points, such as the routine inspection of the pipe wall’s thickness
once a year, modeling methods and theories are further used to establish a prediction model
to predict the change value of the wall thickness in subsequent cycles, and the calculation
results are compared with the minimum allowable thickness of the pipe to determine the
residual life of the corroded pipe [15].
Method of predicting average corrosion rate: According to Equations (1) and (2), it can
be seen that there is a definite relationship between the corrosion depth and the average
corrosion rate in a certain period. Using a method similar to the prediction of residual
wall thickness, the average corrosion rate within a fixed period is taken as the prediction
object, and the corrosion depth and residual corrosion thickness are obtained through
transformation. The residual life of the corroded pipeline is obtained after comparing it
with the minimum allowable thickness of the pipeline [12,17,18].
 Method of predicting average corrosion rate: According to Equations (1) and (2), it
can be seen that there is a definite relationship between the corrosion depth and the aver-
age corrosion rate in a certain period. Using a method similar to the prediction of residual
wall thickness, the average corrosion rate within a fixed period is taken as the prediction
object, and the corrosion depth and residual corrosion thickness are obtained through
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 5 of 16
transformation. The residual life of the corroded pipeline is obtained after comparing it
with the minimum allowable thickness of the pipeline [12,17,18].
The above two methods are similar. The method of predicting the average corrosion
rate is The above
selected intwo
thismethods are similar.
study—that The method
is, to predict of predicting
the change theaverage
rule of the averagecorrosion
corrosion
rate is selected in this study—that is, to predict the change rule of the average corrosion
rate in each period of the corrosion pipeline in the subsequent operation. Therefore, the rate
in each period of the corrosion pipeline in the subsequent operation. Therefore,
main factors determining the prediction accuracy are the applicability and accuracy of the main
factors determining
modeling methods and thetheories.
prediction accuracy are the applicability and accuracy of modeling
methods and theories.
3. Modeling Methods and Theories
3. Modeling Methods and Theories
3.1.
3.1.The
TheBPBPNeural
NeuralNetwork
NetworkModeling
Modeling
Among
Among the many neuralnetworks,
the many neural networks,the themultilayer
multilayerperceptron
perceptronneural
neuralnetwork
networkisisone
one
ofofthe
the most popular ones. Such networks typically consist of one input layer,one
most popular ones. Such networks typically consist of one input layer, oneorormore
more
hidden
hiddenlayers,
layers,and
andone
oneoutput
outputlayer
layer(Figure
(Figure2).2).Each
Eachlayer
layercontains
containsmultiple
multipleneurons,
neurons,and
and
the input layer receives input signals x 1, x2,…,xc, while the output layer returns the output
the input layer receives input signals x1 , x2 , . . . , xc , while the output layer returns the
result
outputy. result y.

Materials 2022, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 16

Structure
Figure2.2.Structure
Figure diagramofofmultilayer
diagram multilayerperceptron
perceptronneural
neuralnetwork.
network.

where InInthethe multi-layerperceptron

h ismulti-layer
perceptronneural
the transfer function, which
neuralnetwork,
network,each eachneuron
is used to establish
neuronisisa asignal
signal transmission
the relationshiptransmission
between the
node and can receive multiple input signals a1 ,a2 , . . . ,an . For neuron j, the weight of signal
node
neuron andinput
can receive
and multiple input signals a1 , a2 ,…, an .For neuron j, the weight of signal
output.
ak is wkj . The weighted results are summed and the threshold b j is added as the total input
wThe
akofis the transfer
kj. neuron
The function
weighted
(Figure 3). can
results introduce
are
Finally, summed nonlinear
the transfer thefactors
andfunction h into
threshold neurons,
b j is to
is applied so
thethe
added asneural
the
total net-
total
input to
work
obtain can approximate any nonlinear
OTFinally, function. Thus, this neural network can be applied
input of the
the neuron’s output3).
neuron (Figure j: the transfer function h is applied to the total input
to nonlinear models. In practical applications, there are many optional transfer functions,
to obtain the neuron’s output OTj:
and the sigmoid function is more commonly used:
!
OTj = h  ∑ wkj ak + b j  (3)
OT j  hh(S j k) wkj a1kS  b j 
 (3)
(4)
 k 1 e j 
where h is the transfer function, which is used to establish the relationship between the
where
neuron input = ∑ and output.
+ is the total input of neuron j.

Figure
Figure 3.
3. Input
Input and
and output
output schematic
schematic diagram
diagram of
of neuron
neuron j.j.

When the ownership

The transfer functionvalue
can and threshold
introduce value offactors
nonlinear each neuron in the neural
into neurons, network
so the neural
are determined,
network the functional
can approximate relationship
any nonlinear between
function. thethis
Thus, total inputnetwork
neural of the neural
can benetwork
applied
x1 , x2 ,…, x c and the final output y is uniquely determined, which is the mapping rela-
tionship between input and output determined by the neural network:

y  l  x1 , x2 ,..., xc  (5)
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 6 of 16

to nonlinear models. In practical applications, there are many optional transfer functions,
and the sigmoid function is more commonly used:

1
h(S j ) = (4)
1 + eS j
where S j = ∑k wkj ak + b j is the total input of neuron j.
When the ownership value and threshold value of each neuron in the neural net-
work are determined, the functional relationship between the total input of the neural
network x1 ,x2 , . . . ,xc and the final output y is uniquely determined, which is the mapping
relationship between input and output determined by the neural network:

y = l ( x1 , x2 , . . . , x c ) (5)

where l is the mapping relationship between total input x1 , x2 , . . . , xc and output y.

The implementation steps of the BP neural network algorithm are as follows:
Step 1: set the number of nodes, transfer function, weight and threshold of each neuron
in the input layer, hidden layer and output layer.
Step 2: input training samples and calculate the results of the hidden layer units and
output layer units.
Step 3: calculate the network output error, and then back propagate to the input layer
by layer through the hidden layer, and allocate the error to all units of each layer.
Step 4: adjust the weight and threshold of each unit of each layer according to the
error signal back propagated.
Step 5: check whether the total error of the network meets the accuracy requirements.
If so, the training ends; If not, return to step 2.

3.2. The Grey Theory Modeling

Grey theory refers to the fuzziness, randomness and uncertainty of a system. The
establishment model of grey theory system is called grey theory model, which is called the
GM model for short. GM model can reveal the characteristics and the laws of continuous
development and change hidden in the system.
h The grey theory prediction
i model generally
refers to the GM (1,1) model. x (0) = x (0) (1), x (0) (2), . . . , x (0) (n) ; x (1) is the 1-AGO
sequence of x (0) . h i
x (1) = x (1) ( 1 ) , x (1) ( 2 ) , . . . , x (1) ( n ) (6)

The relationship between x (0) and x (1) is:

∑ m =1 x ( m )
p
x (1) ( p ) = 0
(7)

GM (1,1) model is defined as:

x (0) ( p) + uz(1) ( p) = f (8)

where z(1) ( p) is the background value of GM (1,1) model.

The whitening differential equation of GM (1,1) model is:

dx (1) (t)
+ ux (1) (t) = f (9)
dt
The integration of Equation (9) on the interval [p−1, p] can be obtained as follows:

Zp Zp
dx (1) (t)
dt + u x (1) (t)dt = f (10)
dt
p −1 p −1
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 7 of 16

Zp
(1) (1)
x ( p) − x ( p − 1) + u x (1) (t)dt = f (11)
p −1

Zp
(0)
x ( p) + u x (1) (t)dt = f (12)
p −1

According to the second mean value theorem of integration, if f is monotonic on [a, b],
Rb Rξ Rb
∃ ξ, st f ( x ) g( x )dx = f ( a) g( x )dx + f (b) g( x )dx
a a ξ

Rp
∴ x (1) (t)dt = x (1) ( p − 1)(ξ − ( p − 1)) + x (1) ( p)( p − ξ )
p −1 (13)
= αx (1) ( p − 1) + (1 − α) x (1) ( p)

In Equation (13), α = ξ − ( p − 1)
Rp (1)
Take α = 0.5, then z(1) ( p) = x (t)dt = 21 x (1) ( p − 1) + 12 x (1) ( p)
p −1
Furthermore, Equation (12) can be reduced to x (0) ( p) + uz(1) ( p) = f , that is,
−uz 1) ( p) + f = x (0) ( p)
(

It can be obtained by the least square method that:

∑np=2 z(1) ( p) ∑np=2 x (0) ( p) − (n − 1) ∑np=2 z(1) ( p) x (0) ( p)

u=  2 (14)
(n − 1) ∑np=2 z(1) ( p)2 − ∑np=2 z(1) ( p)

∑np=2 x (0) ( p) ∑np=2 z(1) ( p)2 − ∑np=2 z(1) ( p) ∑nk=2 z(1) ( p) x (0) ( p)
f =  2 (15)
(n − 1) ∑np=2 z(1) ( p)2 − ∑np=2 z(1) ( p)

From Equation (9), the form of the solution of the albino differential equation is:

f
x (1) (t) = Ce−u(t−1) + (16)
u

The initial value condition is: x (1) (0) = x (0) (1) = x (1) (1). By substituting the initial
value condition into Equation (16), we obtain:
 
(1) (0) f − u ( t −1) f
x ( t ) = x (1) − e + (17)
u u

The discrete solution of the differential equation is:

 
(1) (0) f −up f
x ( p + 1) = x (1) − e + (18)
u u

The x̂ (1) sequence can be obtained by substituting calculations u and f into Equation (18),
and the reduced value (predicted value) x̂ (0) sequence can be obtained by further using
Equation (7).

3.3. The Time Series Prediction Modeling

A time series refers to a group of observed or recorded data arranged in chronological
order, commonly represented as X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn . A sequence contains all information about
the historical behavior of the system that produced the sequence. The basic idea of the time
series prediction method is to establish a mathematical model which can accurately reflect
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 8 of 16

the dynamic dependence relationship contained in the time series and predict the future
behavior of the system based on the finite length of operation records (observation data).
The moving average method is a common method among time series methods, mainly
including the primary moving average method and secondary moving average method.
The moving average method refers to the average of a fixed number of data each time,
in chronological order step by step. For each period, the data of the previous period should
be discarded and the data of a new period should be added, and then the average should
be carried out. In other words, use (xt + xt −1 + . . . + xt −N+1 )/N to predict xt+1 . To obtain
the best prediction accuracy, the MSE of past data prediction is often used as the criterion
to select the number of terms N in the first moving average method:

∑t=N+1 Y − Ŷ
1 K
2
MSE = t t (19)
K−N
The second moving average is a moving average of the actual value based on a moving
average. The quadratic moving average can establish the linear trend prediction model:

Xt+T = At + Bt T (20)
(1) (2)
At = 2Mt − Mt (21)
 
(1) (2)
2 Mt − Mt
Bt = (22)
N−1
(1)
where T is the predicted time point in the future; Xt is the predicted value at time point t; Mt
(1) −1 (2)
is the primary moving average at time t, Mt = 1
N ∑N
j=0 Xt− j ; and Mt is the quadratic
(2) −1 (1)
moving average at time t, Mt= 1
N ∑N Mt − j .
By solving Equations (21) and (22) and
j =0
substituting them into Equation (20), the predicted value can be obtained.

3.4. The Exponential Smoothing Method Modeling

The exponential smoothing method is a suitable method for simple time series analysis
and short- and medium-term forecasts. According to the different smoothing times, it can
be divided into primary exponential smoothing, secondary exponential smoothing, cubic
exponential smoothing and high-order exponential smoothing. High-order exponential
smoothing is rarely used. According to [13], compared with the primary and secondary
exponential smoothing methods, the cubic exponential smoothing method has a higher
accuracy in pipeline corrosion rate prediction. The cubic exponential smoothing method is
mainly used in this study.
Cubic exponential smoothing is an exponential smoothing method based on quadratic
exponential smoothing. Regarding the calculation of the primary exponential smoothing
value and the quadratic exponential smoothing value, the cubic exponential smoothing
value is calculated by the following formula:

(3) (2) (3)

Vd = αVd + (1 − α)Vd−1 (23)

If the time series has a conic trend change and the future is predicted to change
according to this trend, the conic trend prediction model can be established:

Xd+ D = β d + γd D + δd D2 (24)

(1) (2) (3)

β d = 3Vd − 3Vd + Vd (25)
α h
(1) (2) (3)
i
γd = 2
(6 − 5α)Vd − 2(5 − 4α)Vd + (4 − 3α)Vd (26)
2(1 − α )
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 9 of 16

α2 h
(1) (2) (3)
i
δd = Vd − 2Vd + Vd (27)
2(1 − α )2
(1) (2) (3)
where Vd ,Vd and Vd are the first-, second- and third-order smoothing index values,
respectively; α is the smoothing coefficient, 0 < α < 1; D is the predicted time point in the
future; and Xd is the predicted value at time point d.
By calculating Equations (25)–(27), β d , γd and δd are calculated and substituted into
Equation (24) to obtain the predicted value.

4. Case Analysis
4.1. Data Sources
In this study, the corrosion life prediction is indirectly given by predicting corrosion
rate. To compare the prediction accuracy of different modeling methods, the measured
corrosion data of metal pipelines in an oil field in [12] (Figure 4 and Table 1) are selected for
discussion and research.

Table 1. Measured values of pipeline corrosion data in an oil field.

Dissolved Dissolved Measured

Material Material Velocity
Serial Oxygen Material CO2 Corrosion
Test Time Temperature Pressure of Flow
Number Content pH ◦C Content Rate
MPa (m·s−1 )
(mg·L−1 ) (mg·L−1 ) (mm·a−1 )
1 1 January 1999 0.023 7.14 61.4 10.19 2.43 1.043 0.065
1 February
2 0.065 7.45 59.8 10.48 2.65 1.076 0.078
1999
3 1 March 1999 0.104 6.73 54.5 10.85 3.23 1.098 0.084
4 1 April 1999 0.143 6.66 55.03 11.24 3.98 1.125 0.092
5 1 May 1999 0.254 6.60 54.23 11.75 4.23 1.255 0.099
6 1 June 1999 0.456 6.58 56.76 11.96 4.56 1.267 0.106
7 1 July 1999 0.987 6.55 55.67 12.54 4.78 1.269 0.109
8 1 August 1999 1.345 6.50 57.34 12.97 5.34 1.278 0.1134
1 September
9 1.654 6.46 61.34 13.65 5.65 1.288 0.1167
1999
10 1 October 1999 2.054 6.41 58.97 14.43 5.69 1.295 0.1195
1 November
11 2.124 6.40 56.78 14.98 5.98 1.308 0.1213
1999
1 December
12 2.345 6.35 57.87 15.23 6.07 1.303 0.1234
1999
13 1 January 2000 2.753 6.32 55.34 15.87 6.12 1.329 0.1279
1 February
14 2.987 6.29 53.22 16.05 6.34 1.343 0.1326
2000
15 1 March 2000 3.057 6.17 55.12 16.34 6.67 1.345 0.1506
16 1 April 2000 3.125 6.05 50.45 16.98 6.98 1.357 0.1745
17 1 May 2000 3.492 5.95 55.9 17.37 7.09 1.365 0.1942
18 1 June 2000 3.682 5.65 56.78 17.87 7.23 1.387 0.2259
19 1 July 2000 3.769 5.34 62.34 18.54 7.45 1.388 0.2419
20 1 August 2000 4.208 5.30 63.76 18.98 7.76 1.392 0.2742

Table 1 shows a total of 20 groups of measured corrosion data of an oil field pipeline
from 1 January 1999 to 1 August 2000. The types of data detected include the test time,
dissolved oxygen content, pH value of transmission medium, operating temperature,
operating pressure, dissolved CO2 content, the flow rate of the transmission medium and
the measured corrosion rate. Based on the measured corrosion rate, this paper compares
and analyzes the accuracy of four different corrosion life prediction models.
 from 1 January 1999 to 1 August 2000. The types of data detected include the test tim
dissolved oxygen content, pH value of transmission medium, operating temperature, op
erating pressure, dissolved CO2 content, the flow rate of the transmission medium and th
measured corrosion rate. Based on the measured corrosion rate, this paper compares an
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 analyzes the accuracy of four different corrosion life prediction models. 10 of 16

5 0.30 0.30
Dissolved oxygen content Material pH
Measured corrosion rate 7.5 Measured corrosion rate
Dissolved oxygen content /（ mg·L−1）

Measured corrosion rate /（ mm·a−1）

Measured corrosion rate /（ mm·a−1）
4 0.25 0.25

7.0

3 0.20 0.20

Material pH
6.5

2 0.15 0.15

6.0

1 0.10 0.10

5.5

0 0.05 0.05

5.0
1999/1/1 1999/5/1 1999/10/1 2000/3/1 2000/8/1 1999/1/1 1999/5/1 1999/10/1 2000/3/1 2000/8/1
Test Time Test Time

(a) (b)

0.30 20 0.30
64 Material temperature Material pressure
Measured corrosion rate Measured corrosion rate
Measured corrosion rate /（ mm·a−1）

Measured corrosion rate /（ mm·a−1）

62 0.25 18 0.25
Material temperature /℃

Material pressure/MPa

60
0.20 16 0.20
58

56 0.15 14 0.15

54
0.10 12 0.10

52

0.05 10 0.05
50
rials 2022, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 1
1999/1/1 1999/5/1 1999/10/1 2000/3/1 2000/8/1 1999/1/1 1999/5/1 1999/10/1 2000/3/1 2000/8/1
Test Time Test Time

(c) (d)
0.30 0.30
8
Dissolved CO2 content 1.40 Velocity of flow
Measured corrosion rate Measured corrosion rate

Measured corrosion rate /（ mm·a−1）

Measured corrosion rate /（ mm·a−1）
Dissolved CO2 content /（ mg·L−1）

0.25 1.35 0.25

7
Velocity of flow /（ m·s−1）

1.30
0.20 0.20
6
1.25

5 0.15 1.20 0.15

1.15
4
0.10 0.10
1.10
3
1.05
0.05 0.05

2 1.00
1999/1/1 1999/5/1 1999/10/1 2000/3/1 2000/8/1 1999/1/1 1999/5/1 1999/10/1 2000/3/1 2000/8/1
Test Time Test Time

(e) (f)
Figure Figure
4. (a) Dissolved oxygen
4. (a) Dissolved content;
oxygen (b)(b)
content; Material
MaterialpH;
pH;(c)
(c) Material temperature;
Material temperature; (d)(d) Material pre
Material
sure; (e) Dissolved CO content; (f) Velocity of flow Relationship between various data
pressure; (e) Dissolved CO2 content; (f) Velocity of flow Relationship between various data and
2 and corr
sion rate in oil field.
corrosion rate in oil field.
Figure 4 clearly shows that dissolved oxygen content, material pressure, dissolved
Figure 4 clearly
CO2 content showsofthat
and velocity dissolved
flow are positivelyoxygen content,
correlated material
with correlation rate,pressure,
material pHdissolve
is negatively correlated with correlation rate, and material temperature has
CO2 content and velocity of flow are positively correlated with correlation rate, materino significant
correlational trend with correlation rate.
pH is negatively correlated with correlation rate, and material temperature has no signi
icant correlational trend with correlation rate.

4.2. The BP Neural Network Modeling Optimization and Prediction

A prediction model of corrosion rate is established by using a multi-layer sensory neu
ral network. Six parameters including dissolved oxygen content, material pH value, mat
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 11 of 16

4.2. The BP Neural Network Modeling Optimization and Prediction

A prediction model of corrosion rate is established by using a multi-layer sensory neural
network. Six parameters including dissolved oxygen content, material pH value, material
temperature, material pressure, dissolved CO2 content and flow rate are taken as the input
variables of the model, and corrosion rate is taken as the output of the model. Therefore, the
neural network has six nodes in the input layer and one node in the output layer.
The prediction accuracy of the multilayer neural network model is affected by the
number of hidden layers, nodes of hidden layers, transfer function and training algorithm.
To obtain the optimal neural network model with the highest prediction accuracy, a trial
calculation method is adopted to determine the optimal choice. In the trial calculation,
the first 15 groups of data in Table 1 are taken as the training set of the model, and the
last 5 groups of data are taken as the verification set. The MSE of the predicted corrosion
rate and the measured corrosion rate of the verification set are calculated to determine
the optimal neural network prediction model. Two kinds of neural networks, either with
one hidden layer and two hidden nodes or one hidden layer and four hidden nodes, are
selected for trial calculation, and the Levenberg-Marquardt BP (L-MBP for short) and
Bayers normalized BP algorithm are applied to each algorithm, respectively. The transfer
function is double tangent S-type and S-type.
MATLAB programming modeling is used to predict the validation set (Tables 2 and 3).
It can be seen that when the BP neural network uses one hidden layer and four hidden
nodes, the training algorithm uses L-MBP and the transfer function is S-type, the prediction
accuracy of the model is the highest. The mean square error (MSE) of the BP neural network
predicted value and measured value is 0.000299.

Table 2. Results of the neural network with 1 hidden layer and 2 hidden nodes.

Training Transfer Trial Calculation Results (mm·a−1 ) Mean Square Error

Algorithm between Predicted value
Function 1 April 2000 1 May 2000 1 June 2000 1 July 2000 1 August 2000 and Measured Value
Double
tangent 0.1845 0.2042 0.2133 0.2788 0.2932 0.000416
L-M BP S-type
S-type 0.1611 0.1783 0.2011 0.2222 0.2488 0.000416
Double
Bayers
tangent 0.1533 0.1712 0.2922 0.2356 0.2867 0.001114
normalized
S-type
BP
S-type 0.1595 0.1732 0.2011 0.2207 0.2511 0.000453

Table 3. Experimental results of the neural network with 1 hidden layer and 4 hidden nodes.

Training Transfer Trial Calculation Results (mm·a−1 ) Mean Square Error

Algorithm between Predicted Value
Function 1 April 2000 1 May 2000 1 June 2000 1 July 2000 1 August 2000 and Measured Value
Double
tangent 0.1443 0.1574 0.1958 0.2114 0.2444 0.000998
L-M BP S-type
S-type 0.1946 0.2033 0.2365 0.2677 0.2893 0.000299
Double
Bayers
tangent 0.1855 0.2133 0.2484 0.2709 0.3021 0.000522
normalized
S-type
BP
S-type 0.1456 0.1638 0.2099 0.2233 0.2658 0.000486

4.3. The Grey Theory Modeling and Prediction

Based on the first 15 groups of measured data in Table 1, the measured time interval is
one month, and the original corrosion rate data are calculated first:
h i
x (0) = x (0) (1), x (0) (2), . . . , x (0) (15)
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 12 of 16

Then, the original data column are accumulated once to generate

h i
x (1) = x (1) (1), x (1) (2), . . . , x (1) (15)

Further calculate the MEAN sequence:

h i
z (1) = z (1) ( 2 ) , z (1) ( 3 ) , . . . , z (1) ( n )

Substitute the above x (0) , x (1) and z(1) into Equations (14) and (15) to obtain u and f ;
Further substitute the obtained u and f into Equation (18), and the simulation calculation
value can be obtained through calculation:
n o h i
x̂ (1) (k) = x̂ (1) (1), x̂ (1) (2), . . . , x̂ (1) (20)
= (0.065, 0.0773, 0.0821, 0.0908, 0.0112, 0.1177, 0.1221, 0.1335, 0.1399, 0.1421, 0.1467,
0.1489, 0.1500, 0.1594, 0.1645, 0.1833, 0.1900, 0.2149, 0.2311, 0.2557)
The mean square error (MSE) between the predicted value and the measured value is 0.000135.

4.4. Modeling Optimization and Prediction of Time Series Prediction Method

The time series prediction method can adopt the first moving average method and the
second moving average method, and the second moving average method is suitable for
the multi-series continuous prediction in this example. In the calculation of the quadratic
moving average method, it is necessary to calculate the prediction results when N = 3,
N = 5 and N = 7, and select the optimal N value and prediction model according to the
comparison of the mean square error between the prediction results and the measured
(1) (2)
values. The specific method is to calculate Mt and Mt according to the value of N, then
use Equations (21) and (22) to calculate At and Bt (the first 15 groups of data are used for
modeling, the last five groups of data are used for verification and comparison, and the
value of T is 15), and finally substitute it into Equation (20) to calculate the predicted value
(Table 4). It can be seen that when N = 3, the prediction accuracy of the established time
series prediction model is the highest, and the mean square error between the predicted
value and the measured value is 0.003744.

Table 4. Time series prediction modeling results.

Parameter Predictive Value (mm·a−1 )

N 1 April 1 May 1 June 1 July 1 August MSE
M(1)
15 M(2)
15
A15 B15
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
3 0.137033 0.129733 0.144333 0.007300 0.1516 0.1595 0.1662 0.1735 0.1808 0.003744
5 0.131160 0.122540 0.139780 0.004310 0.1441 0.1484 0.1527 0.1570 0.1613 0.005665
7 0.127429 0.115263 0.139594 0.004055 0.1436 0.1477 0.1518 0.1558 0.1599 0.005819

4.5. Exponential Smoothing Modeling Optimization and Prediction

According to [13], compared with the primary and secondary exponential smoothing
methods, the cubic exponential smoothing method has a higher accuracy in pipeline
corrosion rate prediction. Thus, only the cubic exponential smoothing method is studied.
The main parameter affecting the prediction accuracy is the smoothing coefficient α. To
obtain the optimal prediction model, α is set as 0.3, 0.5 and 0.7 for trial calculation, and
the optimal value of α and the prediction model are selected according to the comparison
between the prediction result of the model and the measured value of the mean square
(1) (2) (3)
error. The specific method is to calculate Vd , Vd and Vd according to the value of α;
Equations (25)–(27) are used to calculate β t , δt and γt (the first 15 groups of data are used
for modeling, the last 5 groups of data are used for verification and comparison, and t is
set to 15). Then, substitute it into Equation (24) to calculate the predicted value (Table 5).
 Materials 2022, 15, 5624 13 of 16

REVIEW It can be seen that when α = 0.7, the cubic exponential smoothing model has the highest
prediction accuracy, and the mean square error (MSE) between the predicted value and the
measured value is 0.000241.

Table 5. Exponential smoothing prediction modeling results.

From the above calculation, the optimal prediction

Parameter Predictive Value models
(mm·a−1 ) of each modeling
α 1 April 1 May 1 June 1 July 1 August MSE
can beSobtained.
(1)
t S(2)
t When
S(3)
t the
a15 prediction
b15 c15 results are compared to the measured value
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
5 0.3
and0.131778
Table 6), it0.110064
0.120023 is clear that
0.145328 the 0.000165
0.006742 prediction
0.1522 accuracy
0.1595 0.1670of 0.1749
the grey theory
0.1832 model
0.003588
0.5 0.139569 0.132255 0.126884 0.148825 0.01217 0.000971 0.1620 0.1771 0.1941 0.2130 0.2340 0.000783
than that of0.139926
0.7 0.144631 other0.136147
modeling methods,
0.150261 0.017814 0.002519 and
0.1706this method
0.1960 0.2264 is0.2618
more 0.3023
accurate in predi
0.000241

corrosion rate of the corroded pipeline in the subsequent operation. Accordin

4.6. Comparison and Analysis of Prediction Models
predicted corrosion rate, the annual corrosion depth and remaining wall thick
From the above calculation, the optimal prediction models of each modeling method
calculated, which are compared
can be obtained. Whenwith the minimum
the prediction allowable
results are compared thickness
to the measured of5the pi
values (Figure
and Table 6), it is clear that the prediction accuracy of the grey theory model is higher
determine the residual life
than that of the
of other pipeline.
modeling methods, and this method is more accurate in predicting the
corrosion rate of the corroded pipeline in the subsequent operation. According to the
predicted corrosion rate, the annual corrosion depth and remaining wall thickness are
calculated, which are compared with the minimum allowable thickness of the pipeline to
determine the residual life of the pipeline.

0.32
Measured value
0.30 BP neural network optimization model
Grey theory model
Time series optimization prediction model
0.28 Exponential smoothing optimization model
Corrosion rate/(mma−1)

0.26

0.24

0.22

0.20

0.18

0.16

0.14
2000/4/1 2000/5/1 2000/6/1 2000/7/1 2000/8/1
Date
Figure 5. Comparison curves of predicted and measured values of each model.

Figure 5. Comparison curves of predicted and measured values of each model.

Table 6. The predicted value and measured value of each model and their mean square e
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 14 of 16

Table 6. The predicted value and measured value of each model and their mean square error.

Predictive Value (mm·a−1 ) Absolute Error (mm·a−1 )

Model 1 April 1 May 1 June 1 July 1 August 1 April 1 May 1 June 1 July 1 August MSE
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
BP neural network
0.1946 0.2033 0.2365 0.2677 0.2893 0.0201 0.0091 0.0106 0.0258 0.0151 0.000299
optimization model
Grey theory model 0.1833 0.1900 0.2149 0.2311 0.2557 0.0088 0.0042 0.0110 0.0108 0.0185 0.000135
Time series
optimization 0.1516 0.1589 0.1662 0.1735 0.1808 0.0229 0.0353 0.0597 0.0684 0.0934 0.003744
prediction model
Exponential
smoothing 0.1706 0.1960 0.2264 0.2618 0.3023 0.0039 0.0018 0.0005 0.0199 0.0281 0.000241
optimization model
Measured
0.1745 0.1942 0.2259 0.2419 0.2742 / / / / / /
value/(mm·a−1 )

4.7. Summary
The grey theory model was used to predict the corrosion rate of the corroded pipeline
during the subsequent operation process. Hence, the annual corrosion depth and resid-
ual wall thickness were calculated, which were compared with the minimum allowable
thickness of the pipeline to determine its residual life. When developing a corrosion repair
strategy, the enterprise should not only focus on the pipeline’s residual life, but also on the
required operation time, the cost and technical difficulty of anticorrosion repair, the repair
effect and stability, and the use environment of the pipeline [19–25].
For corroded pipelines, enterprises need to consider the following repair strategies: de-
cide whether to repair, determine the best time node for repairing, and adopt a repair plan.
Common repair solutions include direct replacement, external card maintenance, HDPE com-
posite structure pipeline repair technology, pipeline welding reinforcement technology [19],
pipeline carbon fiber reinforcement technology, flip lining repair technology, etc. Regarding
the above-mentioned prediction results of the residual life of the corroded pipeline, as well as
the daily inspection and the publicity along the pipeline, one or more of the above-combined
repair strategies can be considered to reduce the cost and process of pipeline repair while
achieving smooth operation under the premise of satisfying safety measures.

5. Conclusions
Regarding the comprehensive investigation of the existing residual life of corroded
pipelines, the advantages and disadvantages of modeling prediction methods based on
historical statistical data are compared and evaluated.
(1) The existing modeling methods, each with their own benefits and drawbacks, can be used
to predict the residual life of corroded pipelines. However, the neural network modeling
method can intuitively reflect the relationship between corrosion rate and corrosion
influencing factors, and the established model’s basic theory is more reasonable.
(2) The grey theory prediction model is suitable for short-, medium-, and long-term prediction
and has the advantages of small samples, lack of sample regularity, low computational
workload, and high accuracy. It can fully mine the internal information in a small amount
of data and produce a more reasonable prediction from fewer data. Comparative analysis
reveals that the grey theory method has good applicability and reliability.
(3) The goal of the time series prediction method is to establish a mathematical model in
a way that, given the system’s finite number of operation records (observation data)
accurately captures the time series’ dynamic dependencies. The prediction value always
remains at its previous level, but it sometimes struggles to accurately predict the future
trend. As a result, the accuracy is lower when compared to other prediction models.
(4) The exponential smoothing prediction model is easy to predict, and it only needs to
select one model parameter α, and can automatically identify and adjust changes in
Materials 2022, 15, 5624 15 of 16

data patterns. It has a better short-term prediction effect following the gray theory
prediction method.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, L.Z. and C.Z.; methodology, L.Z.; software, C.Z.; valida-
tion, X.H.; formal analysis, C.Z.; investigation, L.Z.; resources, Y.Z.; data curation, C.Z.; writing—
original draft preparation, S.D.; writing—review and editing, S.D. and F.F.; visualization, Y.Z. and
F.F.; supervision, L.Z.; project administration, X.H. All authors have read and agreed to the published
version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research was funded by CNPC Innovation Fund Project grant number 2020D-5007-0504.
This research was also funded by Youth Science and Technology Innovation Project of Water Transport
Research Institute of Ministry of Transport grant number WTI-41906.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Restrictions apply to the availability of these data. Data was obtained from
CNKI (China national knowledge internet) and are available [https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/detail.
aspx?dbcode=CJFD&dbname=CJFD2003&filename=FSYF200302001&uniplatform=NZKPT&v=Radetct_
Cp3NgIrtYlV8aEY1ZYZPw0BjQw-Wi6z8TdXybk8PUgxXymeujCmfX10S, accessed on 18 May 2022]
with the permission of CNKI.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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