Intro to Probability and Statistics - Exercise 3

served by Mickey Frankel, ID 206335812

November 27, 2022

Question 1
a) We'll denote: A = {black ball pulled rst, white ball second}, B =
{white ball pulled rst, black ball pulled second}.

According to including&excluding theorem,

5 6 6 5 60 6
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) = ( 11 · 10 ) + ( 11 · 10 ) −0= 110 = 11

Question 2
We'll denote: A = {Art},B = {Ballet},C ={Gardening}.According to
including&excluding theorem,P ((A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ C) ∪ (B ∩ C)) = P (A ∩ B) +
P (A ∩ C) + P (B ∩ C) − 3P (A ∩ B ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = 0.1 · 0.2 + 0.1 · 0.3 +
0.2 · 0.3 − 2 · (0.1 · 0.2 · 0.3) = 0.11 − 0.012 = 0.098 .

Question 3
We'll denote: A = {Wonderful},B = {Forehead},C ={Back},D={Silver hair}.

We will compute the complement of the desired - (A ∩ B ∩ C ∩ D)c =

c c c c c c c c
A ∪B ∪C ∪D , P (A ∪B ∪C ∪D ) ≤ P (A )+P (B c )+P (C c )+
c
union boundary
P (D ) = 0.25 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.15 = 0.9 =⇒ P ((A ∩ B ∩ C ∩ D)c ) =
c

1 − P (Ac ∪ B c ∪ C c ∪ Dc ) = 1 − 0.9 = 0.1

(I've also tried to calculate the probability straight forward using

inclusion&exclusion, if there are comments, I'd like to hear (without
points penalty, obviously) P (Ac ∪B c ∪C c ∪D c ) = P (Ac )+P (B c )+P (C c )+
P (Dc ) − 2P (Ac ∩ B c ) − 2P (Ac ∩ C c ) − 2P (Ac ∩ Dc )

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−2P (B c ∩ C c ) − 2P (B c ∩ Dc ) − 2P (C c ∩ DC ) + P (Ac ∩ B c ∩ C c ) + P (Ac ∩ B c ∩
Dc + P (B c ∩ C c ∩ Dc ) − P (Ac ∩ B c ∩ C c ∩ Dc ) = 0.25 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.15−2 · (0.25 ·
0.3) − 2(0.25 · 0.2) − 2(0.25 · 0.15) − 2(0.3 · 0.2) − 2(0.3 · 0.15) − 2(0.2 · 0.15) +
(0.25 · 0.3 · 0.2) + (0.3 · 0.2 · 0.15) − (0.25 · 0.3 · 0.2 · 0.15)

= 0.9 − 0.15 − 0.1 − 0.075 − 0.12 − 0.09 + 0.015 + 0.09 − 0.00225 = 0.46775,
So I guess the highest chance of getting the desired horse would be 1
minus this value (which is unlikely as the would sum up to be more
than a half ))

Question 4
The streak can start only from indices 1 up to 4 (as its a three tosses
long), for each starting-index, there are 23 (=8) tosses variations, as
the other 3 tosses are irrelavent and can get any result. Now, using
inclusion&exclusion, if we'll denote the case of {H, H, T } starting from
i0 th index as Ai . Now, notice that ∀i, j ∈ [6], i 6= j, Ai ∩ Aj = φ (because
if there as a row starting at the i0 th index, than the (i + 1)0 th and the
(i + 2)0 th indices must contain H and T , respectively, instead of H, H
for a new streak), excluding i = 1, j = 4 obviously. Clearly, streaks
which start in three dierent indices are impossible. So, using the
P4 P4
formula we get: P (∪4i=1 Ai ) = i=1 (−1)
i
∩ P ( ∩ Ai ) = i=1 P (Ai ) −
I⊆[4],|I|=i i∈I
P4 8 1 31
i=1 P (Ai ∩ Aj ) − 0 = 4 · 26 − 26 = 64
entire opsions for 6 coin tosses A1 ∩A4 is a singleton

Question 5
We'll use the union boundary: Let k , the cases of getting k 1's in a row
in a series of n bits, are possible on [1, n−k +1] indices. The variants of
such a row are 2n−k as the values of the rest n − k tosses are irrelevant.
We'll denote the event of such a streak starts at i0 th index as Ai . So
Pn−k+1 n−k
n−k+1
we're looking for P (∪i=1 Ai ) ≤ i=1 P (Ai ) = (n − k + 1) · 2 2n =
(n − k + 1) 21k . Let us assign k = nα, for some α ∈ R+ and we'll get
(n − k + 1) 21k = (n + 1 − nα) 2nα
1
≤ n+1
2nα .
We've seen in calculus 1 that
an exponential function approaches ∞ faster than a polynomial, so
from the Sandwich rule, we get the probability approaches zero.

Question 6
Let ω ∈ ∪ Al , so there is some Ai such that ω ∈ Ai , let there be p ∈ [n]
l∈[n]
the rst index out of n such that ω ∈ Ap . So ω ∈ Ap ⊆ ∪ (Al \ ∪ Ak )
l∈[n] k<l
(where l > p, as Ap is the rst group in the union to have ω , so the

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corresponding set in union would have at least a single element which
is ω ). Now for the opposite direction, let p ∈ [n] be the index of the set
in the alien union ∪ (Al \ ∪ Ak ) to have some element, ω . So, there
l∈[n] k<l
the p0 th set in ∪ Al is the rst one to have ω in it, particularly, ω ∈
l∈[n]
Pn
∪ Al . So P (∪l∈[n] Al ) = P ( ∪ (Al \ ∪ Ak )) = i=1 P (Ai \ ∪ Ak ).
alien union
l∈[n] l∈[n]
Pnk<l i
k<i
Now, notice that P ( ∪ Al ) = i=1 (−1) P (∩I⊆[n],I=i A I ) and that for
l∈[n]
∪ (Al \ ∪ Ak ), the intersections are empty, hence the subtraction of
l∈[n] k<l
Pn
intersection is of value 0. So i=1 P (Ai \ ∪ Ak ) = P ( ∪ (Al \ ∪ Ak )) =
k<i l∈[n] k<l
Pn i
P (∪l∈[n] Al ) ≥ i=1 (−1) P (∩I⊆[n],I=i A I ) 
union boundary