The SAS System Two-Stage Least Squares

The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation

Model Dependent Variable Label
logimport logimport Logarithm of Import

Analysis of Variance Source Model Error Corrected Total Sum of DF Squares

3 17 20

Mean Square F Value Pr > F

18.74 <.0001

1.239224 0.413075 0.374701 0.022041 1.506187

Root MSE Dependent Mean Coeff Var

0.14846 R-Square 12.36868 Adj R-Sq 1.20031

0.76783 0.72686

Parameter Estimates Variable Intercept logprice_pjc logpop inf DF

1 1 1 1

Parameter Standard Variable Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label

12.13109 -0.56786 0.662118 0.035086 0.088486 0.277094 0.407303 0.033417 137.10 -2.05 1.63 1.05 <.0001 Intercept 0.0562 Logarithm of PJC Price 0.1224 Logarithm of Population 0.3084 Inflation

The SAS System Full Information Maximum Likelihood

The SYSLIN Procedure Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation
NOTE: Convergence criterion met at iteration 0.

Model Dependent Variable Label

IMPORT logimport Logarithm of Import

Parameter Estimates Variable Intercept logprice_pjc logpop inf DF

1 1 1 1

Parameter Standard Variable Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label

12.13109 -0.56786 0.662118 0.035086 0.079614 0.249312 0.366465 0.030066 152.37 -2.28 1.81 1.17 <.0001 Intercept 0.0359 Logarithm of PJC Price 0.0885 Logarithm of Population 0.2593 Inflation

Model Dependent Variable Label

PRICE logprice_pjc Logarithm of PJC Price

Parameter Estimates Variable Intercept logpop inf logexported_top10_pjc DF

1 1 1 1

Parameter Standard Variable Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label

-3.91261 0.307802 -0.03355 0.355189 0.889770 0.390974 0.025657 0.080154 -4.40 0.79 -1.31 4.43 0.0004 Intercept 0.4420 Logarithm of Population 0.2084 Inflation 0.0004 Exported Top10 PJC

The SAS System Least Squares Estimation

The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: logimport Logarithm of Import
Number of Observations Read Number of Observations Used
21 21

Analysis of Variance Source Model Error Corrected Total Sum of Mean DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F
3 17 20 1.18726 0.31893 1.50619 0.39575 0.01876 21.10 <.0001

Root MSE Dependent Mean Coeff Var

0.13697 R-Square 12.36868 Adj R-Sq 1.10738

0.7883 0.7509

Parameter Estimates Variable Intercept Label

Intercept

DF
1 1 1 1

Parameter Standard Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t|

12.12578 -0.26145 1.03358 0.04761 0.08157 0.17771 0.30260 0.02990 148.65 -1.47 3.42 1.59 <.0001 0.1595 0.0033 0.1297

logprice_pjc Logarithm of PJC Price logpop inf

Logarithm of Population Inflation

The SAS System Generalized Least Squares

The CALIS Procedure Mean and Covariance Structures: Model and Initial Values
Modeling Information Data Set N Records Read N Complete Records
WORK.PJCDEMAND 21 21

N Incomplete Records 0 N Complete Obs N Incomplete Obs Model Type Analysis

21 0 LINEQS Means and Covariances

Variables in the Model Endogenous Manifest Latent Exogenous Manifest Latent Error
E1 E2 inf logexported_top10_pjc logpop logimport logprice_pjc

Number of Endogenous Variables = 2 Number of Exogenous Variables = 5

Initial Estimates for Linear Equations

logimport = . * Intercept + . * logprice_pjc betanull logprice_pjc = alphanull betalogprice_pjc alphalogpop . * Intercept + . * logpop + . * logpop betalogpop + . * inf alphainf + . * inf betainf + . * logexported_top10_pjc + 1.0000 alphatop10 E2 + 1.0000 E1

Initial Estimates for Variances of Exogenous Variables Variable Type Error Variable E1 E2 Observed logpop Parameter
eps1 eps2 _Add1

Estimate
. . .

The SAS System Generalized Least Squares

The CALIS Procedure Mean and Covariance Structures: Model and Initial Values
inf
_Add2 . .

logexported_top10_pjc _Add3 NOTE: Parameters with prefix '_Add' are added by PROC CALIS.

Initial Estimates for Covariances Among Exogenous Variables Var1 E1 inf Var2 E2 Parameter
eps3

Estimate
. . . .

logpop _Add4

logexported_top10_pjc logpop _Add5 logexported_top10_pjc inf

_Add6

NOTE: Parameters with prefix '_Add' are added by PROC CALIS.

Initial Estimates for Mean Parameters Variable Type Variable Parameter

_Add7 _Add8

Estimate
. . .

Observed logpop inf

logexported_top10_pjc _Add9 NOTE: Parameters with prefix '_Add' are added by PROC CALIS.

The SAS System Generalized Least Squares

The CALIS Procedure Mean and Covariance Structures: Descriptive Statistics
Simple Statistics Variable inf logimport logpop
Inflation Logarithm of Import Logarithm of Population

Mean Std Dev

2.74457 12.36868 0.06473 10.73071 -0.17334 1.10175 0.26781 0.15038 0.73035 0.26337

logexported_top10_pjc Exported Top10 PJC logprice_pjc

Logarithm of PJC Price

The SAS System Generalized Least Squares

The CALIS Procedure Mean and Covariance Structures: Optimization
Initial Estimation Methods
1 2 3 Observed Moments of Variables McDonald Method Two-Stage Least Squares

Optimization Start Parameter Estimates N Parameter 1 betanull 2 betalogprice_pjc 3 betalogpop 4 betainf 5 alphanull 6 alphalogpop 7 alphainf 8 alphatop10 9 eps1 10 eps2 11 _Add1 12 _Add2 13 _Add3 14 eps3 15 _Add4 16 _Add5 17 _Add6 18 _Add7 19 _Add8 20 _Add9 Estimate Gradient Lower Bound Upper Bound
. . . . . . . . 0 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.13109 1.2051E-15 -0.56786 2.4971E-16 0.66212 1.054E-16

0.03509 3.2526E-15 -3.91261 0.30780 -0.03355 0.35519 0.01784 0.01462 0.02261 1.21386 0.53341 0.00867 -4.248E-14 -3.716E-15 -1.147E-13 -4.585E-13 -1.44E-14 -8.866E-16 -2.31E-28 -1.561E-31 -5.352E-30 -5.842E-14

0.05862 4.0337E-30 -0.09799 -8.244E-29

-0.27589 1.1209E-30 0.06473 -7.154E-29

2.74457 9.2811E-31 10.73071 -1.226E-29

Value of Objective Function = 0

The SAS System Generalized Least Squares

The CALIS Procedure Mean and Covariance Structures: Optimization Levenberg-Marquardt Optimization Scaling Update of More (1978)
Parameter Estimates Functions (Observations) Lower Bounds Upper Bounds Optimization Start Active Constraints Max Abs Gradient Element
0 Objective Function 4.584738E-13 Radius 0 1 20 20 2 0

Optimization Results Iterations Jacobian Calls Objective Function Lambda Radius

0 Function Calls 1 Active Constraints 0 Max Abs Gradient Element 0 Actual Over Pred Change 1 Convergence criterion (ABSGCONV=0.00001) satisfied. 4 0 4.584738E-13 0

The SAS System Generalized Least Squares

The CALIS Procedure Mean and Covariance Structures: Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Fit Summary Modeling Info N Complete Observations N Incomplete Observations N Variables N Moments N Parameters N Active Constraints Saturated Model Estimation Saturated Model Function Value Saturated Model -2 Log-Likelihood Baseline Model Estimation Baseline Model Function Value Baseline Model -2 Log-Likelihood Baseline Model Chi-Square Baseline Model Chi-Square DF Pr > Baseline Model Chi-Square Absolute Index Fit Function -2 Log-Likelihood Chi-Square Chi-Square DF Pr > Chi-Square Z-Test of Wilson & Hilferty Hoelter Critical N Root Mean Square Residual (RMSR) Standardized RMSR (SRMSR) Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) Parsimony Index Adjusted GFI (AGFI) Parsimonious GFI RMSEA Estimate Probability of Close Fit
21 0 5 20 20 0 FIML 0.0000 0.0000 Converged 4.6622 97.9054 97.9054 10 <.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0 . . . 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 . 0.0000 . .

The SAS System Generalized Least Squares

The CALIS Procedure Mean and Covariance Structures: Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Akaike Information Criterion Bozdogan CAIC Schwarz Bayesian Criterion McDonald Centrality Incremental Index Bentler Comparative Fit Index Bentler-Bonett NFI Bentler-Bonett Non-normed Index Bollen Normed Index Rho1 Bollen Non-normed Index Delta2 James et al. Parsimonious NFI
40.0000 80.8904 60.8904 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 . . 1.0000 0.0000

The SAS System Generalized Least Squares

The CALIS Procedure Mean and Covariance Structures: Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Linear Equations
logimport Std Err t Value logprice_pjc = Std Err t Value = 12.1311 * Intercept + -0.5679 * logprice_pjc 0.0796 152.4 0.8898 -4.3973 + 0.0351 * inf 0.0301 1.1670 + 0.3552 * logexported_top10_pjc + 1.0000 0.0802 4.4313 alphatop10 E2 betainf alphanull betanull 0.2493 -2.2777 0.3910 0.7873 + 1.0000 alphalogpop betalogprice_pjc + 0.6621 * logpop 0.3665 1.8068 + -0.0336 * inf 0.0257 -1.3078 E1 alphainf betalogpop

-3.9126 * Intercept + 0.3078 * logpop

Estimates for Variances of Exogenous Variables Variable Type Error Variable E1 E2 Observed logpop inf Parameter Estimate
eps1 eps2 _Add1 _Add2 0.01784 0.01462 0.02261 1.21386 0.53341

Standard Error t Value

0.00700 2.54895 0.00451 3.24037 0.00698 3.24037 0.37461 3.24037 0.16461 3.24037

logexported_top10_pjc _Add3

Covariances Among Exogenous Variables Var1 E1 inf Var2 E2 Parameter Estimate

eps3 0.00867 0.05862 -0.09799 -0.27589

Standard Error
0.00541 0.03835

t Value
1.60183 1.52842

logpop _Add4

logexported_top10_pjc logpop _Add5 logexported_top10_pjc inf

_Add6

0.03212 -3.05081 0.18563 -1.48629

The SAS System Generalized Least Squares

The CALIS Procedure Mean and Covariance Structures: Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Mean Parameters Variable Type Variable Parameter Estimate
_Add7 _Add8 0.06473 2.74457 10.73071

Standard Error
0.03282

t Value
1.97268

Observed logpop inf

0.24042 11.41562 0.15937 67.33015

logexported_top10_pjc _Add9

Squared Multiple Correlations Variable logimport logprice_pjc Error Total Variance Variance R-Square
0.01784 0.01462 0.07172 0.06936 0.7512 0.7892

The SAS System Generalized Least Squares

The CALIS Procedure Mean and Covariance Structures: Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Standardized Results for Linear Equations
logimport Std Err t Value logprice_pjc = Std Err t Value = -0.5584 * logprice_pjc 0.2327 -2.3999 0.1758 * logpop 0.2233 0.7871 alphalogpop betalogprice_pjc + 0.3718 * logpop 0.2046 1.8169 + -0.1404 * inf 0.1091 -1.2867 alphainf betalogpop + 0.1443 * inf 0.1252 1.1528 + 0.9850 * logexported_top10_pjc + 1.0000 0.2016 4.8851 alphatop10 E2 betainf + 1.0000 E1

Standardized Results for Variances of Exogenous Variables Variable Type Error Variable E1 E2 Observed logpop inf Parameter Estimate
eps1 eps2 _Add1 _Add2 0.24877 0.21076 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000

Standard Error t Value

0.11274 2.20663 0.08172 2.57915

logexported_top10_pjc _Add3

Standardized Results for Covariances Among Exogenous Variables Var1 E1 inf Var2 E2 Parameter Estimate
eps3 0.12289 0.35379 -0.89220 -0.34287

Standard Error
0.08233 0.19090 0.04451 0.19256

t Value
1.49266 1.85322 -20.04374 -1.78054

logpop _Add4

logexported_top10_pjc logpop _Add5 logexported_top10_pjc inf

_Add6