Feasibility Study

A Feasibility Study on a New Sending-Receiving Agreement Between the Seaside Heights Board of Education and the Toms River Regional Board of Education by Statistical Forecasting LLC, Porzio Compliance Services, and Steven Cea M.B.A. December 2022 7195884ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. i isse84 INTRODUCTION. 1 Borough of Seaside Height 2. Toms River Regional Geographical ‘Area. B. Relevant Demographic Characteristics. 1, Borough of Seaside Heights. 2. Toms River Regional Geographit C. District Overviews. 1, Seaside Heights School District. 2, Toms River Regional Schools Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method Explanation of Grade Progression Differences. Historical Enrollment Trends.. 1, Seaside Heights School District.. 2. Toms River Regional Schools Birth Data. Potential New Housing 1. Borough of Seasi 2. Toms River Regional Geographical Are I Enrollment Projections... 1 Seaside Heights School Distric 2. Toms River Regional Schools Capacity Analysis...... K. Economically Disadvantaged Students... 1, Seaside Heights School District. 2. Toms River Regional Schools mmo ma District Totals (PK-6) B. Toms River Regional Schols Enrolments by Race District Totals (PK-12) 2 gare Elementary School (PK-5) a) East Dover Elementary School wit Students. 3. Toms River Intermediate School East (6-8) a) Toms River Intermediate School East with Seaside Heights Students. E. Demographic and Raci EDUCATIONAL IMPACT. A. Introduction.s< 7isses4 ‘School Profiles and Demographics... 1. Hugh J. Boyd Elementary School - Seaside Heights. 2. Toms River School District 3. East Dover Elementary School -Toms River. 4, Intermediate East School -Toms River.. C. Comparison of Student Performance on State Assessments. 4 D. Chronic Absenteeism. 45 E. Comparison Of School Readiness And Climate Indicator 45 F. Accountability Framework 46 G. Impact on Special Learners. 47 H a ao 1. Will students from Seaside Heights School District have the opportunity to receive a high-quality education in the Toms River School District?. 2. Willa sending-receiving agreement present challenges for certain communities or special student populations coming from Seaside Heights? K. Conclusion L.__ Recommendation . GOVERNANCE FINANCIAL IMP; A. Methodology. B. Key Assumptions. C. Results of the Analysi Alternative Scenario ~ Seaside Heights Enters Into a Sending-Receiving Agreement With Toms River Regional District for PK-6 Students Seaside Heights with Sending-Receiving Relatoahip with Tema River Regional ‘Non-Operating District Structure.. Toms River Regional with Seaside Heights PK-6 Students Central Regional Projected Savings from Forming a Non-Operating District and Establishing a Sending-Receiving Agreement, Seaside Heights Non-Operating District Risk Analysis Risk Mitigation Teaching Staff & Negotiations State Aid Overview. Potential Changes in Aid Due to Sending-Receiving Agreement Amount of Indebtedness Assets and Liabilities. Shared Services..if Operations & Maintenance Transportation, Food Services. Transition Budget Expenses VI. CONCLUSIONS. ‘VIII. REGIONALIZATION FEASIBILITY STUD’ APPENDIX AA - DEBT SCHEDULES... APPENDIX AB ~ SHARED SERVICES SUMMARY. APPENDIX AC ~ SEASIDE HEIGHTS TEACHER SCATTERGRAM 79588Acknowledgements The Seaside Heights School District and Toms River Regional Schools and their representatives, Seaside Heights Borough, Beachwood Borough, Pine Beach Borough, South Toms River Township, Toms River Township, and their officials, the Ocean County Office of Education, and the New Jersey Department of Education were most cooperative in responding to the consultant team’s requests for the volumes of data and information necessary to compile, analyze, and present the applicable recommendations, ‘7isses4I. Introduction Superstorm Sandy (2012) and the South End Boardwalk Fire (2013) resulted in a substantial negative impact upon aggregate assessed value of property within the Borough of Seaside Heights. Aggregate property value in 2012, pre-Sandy, was $843,276,901 and $617,804,000 following the devastation. ‘The consequential loss ‘of property tax revenue diminished the Borough’s ability to provide essential services and led the Borough Council in 2016 to seek participation in the Transitional Aid Program administered by the NJ Division of Local Government Services (within the NJ Department of Community Affairs), In 2021 the Borough’s continued receipt of transitional aid was conditioned, in part, on the Borough exploring a sending-receiving relationship between the Seaside Heights School District and Toms River Regional School District. Specifically, the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Borough and NJ Division of Local Government Services provided that “The Borough shall explore the feasibility regionalization and sending-receiving relationship options in an effort to stabilize taxes and advance efficiency in the provision of educational services.” Governing bodies of the Borough of Seaside Heights, Toms River Regional Board of Education, and Seaside Heights Board of Education adopted resolutions supporting an investigation that led to the subject feasibility study. The Borough retained the following independent experts to analyze the viability of closing the Borough's elementary schoo! building and creating a sending-receiving relationship with the ‘Toms River Regional Board of Education for its students in grades PK-6 and to prepare a preliminary study of the educational, financial, and racial impact of the establishment of such a relationship: Dr. Richard S. Grip of Statistical Forecasting LLC was primarily responsible for the demographic and racial impact analysis; Mary Robinson Cohen, retired school administrator, was primarily responsible for the educational analysis; and Steven Cea, retired school business administrator, was primarily responsible for the financial analysis. This feasibility study analyzes the educational, financial, and racial impacts of the establishment of a sending-receiving relationship between Seaside Heights and Toms River Regional, The team of experts interviewed school-based personnel, including but not limited to, district-level administrators, school business administrators, and building principals. Representatives of the New Jersey Department of Education were consulted and interviewed, as were administrators from the Ocean County Office of Education, At the municipal government level, officials of the local planning/zoning boards and construction departments were interviewed and used as a resource. The consultants have concluded that the effect on the racial composition of the pupil population of each of the districts is insignificant. The students in both of the districts will continue to be educated in racially diverse learning environments. Indeed, due to Seaside Heights! relatively small PK-6 student population, the decrease or increase in Seaside Heights’ population in Toms River will not result in a negative impact on any of the students from a demographic perspective. In analyzing the educational impact of the proposed reconfiguration, the consultants have concluded that the proposed reconfiguration would meet New Jersey's educational requirements, would provide an opportunity for a thorough and efficient education for all the students currently rissaesserved by the respective school districts, and would not result in any substantial negative impact. Finally, the financial analysis revealed that the establishment of a sending-teceiving relationship would result in a significant savings of approximately $2.7 million annually between the two school districts, For the reasons set for at length in this feasibility study, the consultants encourage the Seaside Heights Board of Education to consider the option studied in this report. 7195884IL Demographic Profiles A. Community Descriptions 1 Borough of Seaside Heights Located in Ocean County, the Borough of Seaside Heights (“Seaside Heights”) contains a land area of 0.62 square miles, with an additional 0.13 square miles of water area. In the 2020 Census, Seaside Heights had 2,440 residents, which is 3,935.5 persons per square mile, Historical and projected populations for Seaside Heights from 1940-2040 are shown in Table D1. The borough’s population more than quintupled from 1940-2000, with its greatest percentage gain occurring in the 1940s (+57.0%). However, the population has declined in the last two decades, losing 715 persons over this time period. Table D1 Histori rojecte jons for S 1940-2040 Population Historical! 1940 549 WA 1950 862 457.0% 1960 954 +10.7% E 1970 1,248 30.8% 1980 1,802 +444% 1990 2,366 431.3% 2000 3,155 #33.3% 2010 2,887 8.5% 2020 2,440 15.5% Projected? 3,129 482% 3,462 +10.6% ‘Sources: ‘United States Census Bureau North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority, Inc. (2017) Population projections for 2030 and 2040, which were prepared by the North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority ("NJTPA”), indicate that the population will significantly increase. However, as the projections were based off of the 2010 Census and the actual population in 2020 reflects a decline from 2010, the NITPA needs to revise its projections now that the 2020 Census results are available. As it currently stands, the forecast projects the population to be 3,462 in 2040, which would be a 41.9% increase from the 2020 Census and a gain of 1,022 persons. 7i9seee2. Toms River Regional Geographical Area The communities of Beachwood Borough (“Beachwood”), Pine Beach Borough (“Pine Beach”), South Toms River Township (“South Toms River”), and Toms River Township (“Toms River”), all of which are located in Ocean County, are served by the Toms River Regional Schools (Toms River Regional”) for grades PK-12. The Toms River Regional geographical area contains a land area of 45.12 square miles, with an additional 12.46 square miles of water area, Historical and projected populations for the Toms River Regional geographical area from 1940-2040 are shown in Table D2. The data from each community has been aggregated and reflects the combined counts in the regional's geographic area. In the 2020 Census, the population of the geographical area was 112,079, which is 2,484.0 persons per square mile. From 1940-2020, the population of the geographical area has steadily increased. The greatest growth occurred in the 1950s and 1960s, as the population more than doubled in each decade. However, in the last two decades, population growth has slowed significantly. In the most recent decade, there was a gain of nearly 4,000 persons, Table D2 Historical and Projected Populations for the ‘Toms River Regional Geographical Area 1940-2040 Population Percent Change Historical’ 6,423 NA, 9,945 $54.8% 22,767 +128.9% 53,517, +135.1% 77,892 $45.5% 91,518 H75% 105,665. +15.5% 108,095 42.3% 112,079 43.7% Projected? 121,851 +8.7% 131,625 8.0% ‘Sources: 'United States Census Bureau North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority, Inc. (2017) Population projections for 2030 and 2040, which were prepared by the NJTPA, indicate that the population will continue to increase. However, as the projections were based off of the 2010 Census, the NTPA needs to revise its projection now that the 2020 Census results are available. As it currently stands, the forecast projects the population to be 131,625 in 2040, which would be a 17.4% increase from the 2020 Census and a gain of 19,546 persons. 7195964B, _ Relevant Demographic Characteristies In Table D3, relevant demographic characteristics' of Seaside Heights and the Toms River Regional geographical arca are compared from the 2010 and 2020 Censuses and the American Community Surveys (“ACS”). At the time of this writing, a limited amount of demographic data ‘was available from the 2020 Census, which was limited to total population counts and racial distributions from the Redistricting Data. While some Census variables account for everyone in the population (e.g., age and race), other variables are collected from a sample (e.g., median household income, educational attainment, poverty status, etc.). The ACS replaced the long form of the Census, last administered in 2000 to approximately 16% of the population in the United States. For communities with fewer than 65,000 persons such as Seaside Heights, ACS data represent.a sample collected over a five-year time period, where the estimates represent the average characteristics between January 2016 and December 2020, for example. This information does not represent a single point in time like the long form of earlier Censuses. The five-year ACS contains 1% annual samples from all households and persons from 2016 to 2020, resulting ina 5% sample of the population. For populations greater than 65,000 persons such as the Toms River Regional geographical area, the one-year ACS? was available and was used in the forthcoming table. Due to the small sample sizes in the ACS data, the sampling error is quite large, which increases the degree of uncertainty of the estimated values. Therefore, the forthcoming ACS data should be interpreted with caution. 1. Borough of Seaside Heights While Whites are the largest race in Seaside Heights, their population is declining. In the 2020 Census, Seaside Heights was 64.5% White as compared to 71.4% in 2010, which isa loss of 6.9 percentage points. Hispanics were the second-largest race at 23.2% in 2020, which is a gain of 5.3 percentage points from the 2010 percentage (17.9%). Blacks/African Americans were the third-largest race, consisting of 5.6% of the population in 2020, which is nearly unchanged from the 2010 percentage (6.3%). Regarding nativity, 17.4% of Seaside Heights residents were foreign-born in the 2016- 2020 ACS, which is a gain of 7.4 percentage points from the 2006-2010 ACS percentage (10.0%). ‘As a point of comparison, New Jersey's foreign-born resident percentage was 22.7% in the 2016- 2020 ACS, which is greater than that of Seaside Heights. While not shown in the table, place of birth, which serves as a proxy for country of origin, indicates that Mexico was the largest source of immigrants in the 2016-2020 ACS, accounting for 44.1% of the foreign-bom population. ‘The median age in Seaside Heights increased from 36.2 years in 2010 to 39.5 years in the 2016-2020 ACS, which is similar to the median age in New Jersey (40.0 years). During the same time period, the percentage of people under the age of 18 years, which corresponds predominantly to school-age children, increased from 19.7% to 25.7%, a 6.0 percentage-point gain, + As the mumber of demographic variables provided by the United Stated Census Bureau is voluminous, only variables pertinent to the study are shown, # As the 2020 ACS was not yet available, the 2019 ACS data were used instead, 7195684Table D3 Relevant Demographic Characteristics ‘Toms River Regional Geographic Area ‘Seaside Hoights 2010ceneu 91,089 (84395) 1573 (45%) Black orAtosn American 18163%) | B6Ge0 | sonas% | 35905%) Hispanie oF Latino s16079%) | 366032") | Ks26@3%) | 14056(125%) “ncn In nd roo | nes) | sem | sim Asian Has | 36059 | aesare | amram See siere eee Ofer oo 000%) 1s@0%) | 130%) Oihor Race wom | 4029 | ier | seen "Two or more Races Bas) | idm | iswar | sss Go ‘Nativity Foreign-Born 10.0% 174% aa 110% ‘Age: Under 18 mH 25.7% io 221% 1864 7a 3% and over Tam 100% Welan age (ea) Meayan | 3350 Educational Atal Bachelor's degree or higher 12.2% 20.2% Gradual or protssonal degree | 1% 9% Theorie Medan housshod income 33380 v8 ae 288% 155% 78% Hoang Unis Total number SoH ia oa 3138 Occupied units 1,376 (45.8%) | 1,285 (43.2%) ] 40,358 (82.0%) | 41,999 (81.7%) Owner-Occupied units 316 (23.0%) 426 (33.2%) _ | 33,429 (82.8%) | 33,707 (80.3%) Renter-Occupied units 1060 (77.0%) 859 (66.8%) | 6929 (17.2%) | 8,292 (19.7%) Pea ae $345,400 $286,700 $298,700 ‘$289,500, ‘an owner-occupied unit “Average household size 20) 227 2 264 ‘Sourees: American Community Survey (2006-2010, 2016-2020, 2010, and 2019) and United States Census (2010 and 2020) Notes: ‘Data may not sum fo 100.0% due to rounding. Data was not available from the 2016-2020 ACS so the 2015-2019 ACS was used instead, Cells shaded orange are from the decennial Census while cells shaded blue are from the American Community Survey. nissess8 Regarding educational attainment for adults aged 25 and over, 20.2% of the population had bachelor’s degree or higher in the 2016-2020 ACS as compared to 12.2% in the 2006-2010 ACS, which is a gain of 8.0 percentage points. The percentage of persons having a bachelor’s degree or higher in Seaside Heights is much lower than that of New Jersey (40.7%), Persons with graduate or professional degrees increased from 1.7% to 4.3% during this time period, Median household income increased from $33,380 in the 2006-2010 ACS to $57,083 in ‘the 2015-2019 ACS, a gain of 71.0%. By comparison, median household income in New Jersey is $85,245, which is $28,000 greater than that of Seaside Heights. During this time period, the percentage of school-age children (5-17) that are in poverty declined significantly from 85.6% to 28.8%, a loss of 56.8 percentage points. Regarding housing, there were 2,972 housing units in Seaside Heights in the 2016-2020 ACS, which is a loss of 31 units (-1.0%) from 2010, Over this time period, the overall occupancy tate declined from 45.8% to 43.2%, while the average household size increased from 2.10 to 2.27 persons. The low occupancy rates are due to the high percentage of second-home owners in Seaside Heights, as the community is a vacation destination. In the last decade, there are fewer primary residents in Seaside Heights as the percentage of second-home owners continues to grow. This has likely led to the population decline in the last two decades as shown previously in Table DI, as the Census Bureau only counts primary residents in population totals. The majority of homes in Seaside Heights are renter-occupied, as 66.8% consisted of renters in the 2016-2020 ACS, which is a decline of 10.2 percentage points from the 2010 percentage (77.0%). As a point of comparison, the percentage of renter-occupied units in Seaside Heights is significantly greater than that of New Jersey (36.0%). Finally, the median home price of an owner-occupied unit in the 2016-2020 ACS was $286,700, which is a 17.0% decline from the value reported in the 2006-2010 ACS ($345,400). 2, Toms River Regional Geographical Area In the Toms River Regional geographical area, Whites are also the largest race but are in decline. The White population has declined from 84.3% in 2010 to 76.8% in 2020, which is a loss of 7.5 percentage points. Hispanic was the second-largest race at 12.5% in 2020, which is a gain of 4.2 percentage points from the 2010 percentage (8.3%). Regarding nativity, 11.0% of residents were foreign-born in the 2019 ACS, which is a gain of 2.2 percentage points from the 2010 ACS percentage (8.8%). The foreign-born resident percentage in the Toms River Regional geographical area is much lower than that of New Jersey (22.7%). While not shown in the table, place of birth, which serves as a proxy for country of origin, indicates that the Philippines was the largest source (14.6%) of the foreign-born population in the 2016-2020 ACS?. The median age in the Toms River Regional geographical area increased slightly from 42.1 years in 2010 to 42.8 years in the 2019 ACS, which is higher than the median age in New Jersey (40.0 years). Over this time period, the percentage of people under the age of 18 years, which 5 Data was taken from the S-year ACS as data was not available from the 1-year ACS.9 ae predominantly to school-age children, was neatly unchanged (22.1% in the 2019 ACS). Regarding educational attainment for adults aged 25 and over, 31.6% of the population had a bachelor’s degree or higher in the 2019 ACS, which is a gain of 2.6 percentage points from the 2010 ACS percentage (29.0%). ‘The Toms River Regional geographical area's percentage of persons having a bachelor's degree or higher is lower than that of New Jersey (40.7%). ‘The percentage of persons with graduate or professional degrees was nearly unchanged during period (9.7% in the 2019 ACS). Median household income increased from $73,923 in the 2010 ACS to $78,843 in the 2019 ACS, a gain of 6.7%. Median household income in the Toms River Regional geographical area is slightly lower than that of New Jersey ($85,245). During this time period, the percentage of school-age children (5-17) that are in poverty declined from 15.5% to 7.8%, a loss of 7.7 percentage points. Regarding housing, there were 51,399 housing units in the Toms River Regional geographical area in the 2019 ACS, which is a gain of 2,176 units (+4.4%) from 2010, Over this time period, the occupancy rate was nearly unchanged (81.7% in the 2019 ACS) and the average household size was also unchanged at 2.64 persons. While the occupancy rate is not as low as that of Seaside Heights, it is low compared to the state average (90.2%) due to having a number of second-home owners. Renter-occupied units accounted for 19.7% of the occupied units in the 2019 ACS, which is much lower than that of New Jersey (36.0%). The median home price of an ‘owner-occupied unit in the 2019 ACS was $289,500, which is a 3.1% decline from the value reported in the 2010 ACS ($298,700). C. District Overviews 1, Seaside Heights School District The Seaside Heights School District is a PK-6 school district consisting of one school, Hugh J. Boyd, Jr. Elementary School (“Boyd”). The location of the school is shown in Figure 1. Children in grades 7-12 attend the Central Regional School District (“Central Regional”) whereby Seaside Heights is a constituent member of the regional school district. 2. Toms River Regional Schools Toms River Regional is a PK-12 school district consisting of 18 schools serving the communities of Beachwood, Pine Beach, South Toms River, and Toms River. If Seaside Heights becomes a non-operating school district and closes Boyd, Seaside Heights students in grades PK- 5 would attend East Dover Elementary School (“East Dover”) and students in grade 6 would attend Toms River Intermediate School East (6-8) in Toms River Regional. These schools are also shown in Figure 1. 7195884‘veasers on [A sen € $F 3 Sloo\9g feuosBey Jone swOL UISIC osKDS swuBle} episeog Suo}}e007 jooyos ve, Sa 7 a SST 5 Simei SS suone207 jooyos Lb eunBi4D. _ Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method In this study, historical enrollments from 2016-17 through 2021-22 were obtained from the New Jersey Department of Education (“NJDOE”) and were used to project enrollments for ten Years into the future. Enrollments were projected using the Cohort-Survival Ratio method (“CSR”) for Toms River Regional. ‘The CSR method has been approved by the NIDOE to project public school enrollments. In this method, a survival ratio is computed for each grade, which essentially compares the number of students in a particular grade to the number of students in the previous grade during the previous year. The survival ratio indicates whether the enrollment is stable, increasing, or decreasing. A survival ratio of 1.00 indicates stable enrollment, less than 1.00 indicates declining enrollment and outward migration, and greater than 1.00 indicates increasing enrollment and inward migration, 1f, for example, a school district had 100 fourth graders and the next year only had 95 fifth graders, the survival ratio would be 0.95, ‘The CSR method assumes that what happened in the recent past will also happen in the future. In essence, this method provides a linear projection of the population. The CSR method is most appropriate for districts that have relatively stable trends without any major unpredictable fluctuations ftom year to year. In school districts encountering rapid growth or decline not experienced historically (i.e., a change in the historical trend), the CSR method must be modified and supplemented with additional information, In this study, survival ratios were calculated using historical data from the last six years. Due to the fluctuation in survival ratios from year to year, its appropriate to calculate an average survival ratio for each grade progression, which is then used to project enrollments ten years into the future, E. _ Explanation of Grade Progression Differences ‘The Grade Progression Differences (“GPD") method was used to project enrollments for ‘Seaside Heights since the number of students in each grade level was quite small (typically fewer than 25 students per grade level). In this method, the change in the number of students, as opposed to the ratio, is computed for each grade progression. As compared to a ratio, a numerical change is less sensitive to the movement inward or outward of a few students and is preferred when grade level sizes are small. A positive value indicates an inward migration of students while a negative value indicates an outward migration of students. The computed differences in enrollment were averaged and these values were used to project enrollments fen years into the future, 719588412 F. Historical Enrollment Trends 1. Seaside Heights School District Historical enrollments of the Seaside Heights School District (PK-6) from 2016-17 to 2021-22 are shown in Table D4. In the last six years, enrollments have ranged from 210-233 with no apparent increasing or declining trend, In 2021-22, enrollment was 213, which is slightly higher (+3) than the 2016-17 enrollment of 210. Table D4 also shows computed average grade progression differences based on the last six years of historical data, which will be used to project. future enrollments. Table D4 Heights Histori liment 2016-17 to 2021-22 2016-17 390d 19 2017-18 3637 29 2018-19, 3602S 3 2019-20 4 6 2B 23 24 2020-24 30 7B 28 2 2021-22 mu mow 28 20 7903" $2000 0.2000 -0.4000 2.6000 0.0000 04000 00x35" Notes: ‘Data were obtained from the New Jersey Department of Education (hap/wwv nl gov/nided data/nx). 2 Preskindergarten regular education enrollment. ? Self-contained special education enrollment/ungraded students. “ Average birth-1-indergarten ratio based on birth data five years prior based on the as four years of historical daa. # Average proportion of special education students with respect to PK-6 subtotals using the last three years of historical data. 719508413 2. Toms River Regional Schools Historical enrollments for students attending Toms River Regional (PK-12) from 2016-17 ‘0 2021-22 are shown in Table DS. Enrollments have been declining in the district. In 2021-22, enrollment was 14,391, which represents a decline of 1,229 students from the 2016-17 enrollment of 15,620. In addition, Table DS displays enrollments from 2016-17 to 2021-22 by grade configuration (PK-5, 6-8, and 9-12) in Toms River Regional. Self-contained special education students were redistributed into the PK-5, 6-8, and 9-12 totals. At the elementary level (PK-S), enrollments declined through 2020-21 before rebounding in 2021-22, The lange decline in 2020-21 was likely due to the coronavirus pandemic, as parents sought alternative educational experiences (private or parochial schools, homeschooling, etc.) for their children, whereby many students then returned to the school district in 2021-22. Enrollinent ‘was 6,343 in 2021-22, which represents a decline of 740 students from the 2016-17 enrollment of 7,083. For grades 6-8, enrollments had been fairly stable before declining in the last two years. In 2021-22, enrollment was 3,401, which is a decline of 313 students from the 2016-17 enrollment 0f 3,714. Finally, high school enrollments (grades 9-12) declined through 2019-20 before stabilizing. In 2021-22, enrollment was 4,647, which represents a decline of 176 students from the 2016-17 enrollment of 4,823. Table DS also shows computed average survival ratios based on the last six years of historical data, which will be used to project future enrollments. 7issee4vens6rs “Posouas oqoddypno a wep aes IK a aM Bue sHO}NS ZI-4a OH MLN sHOPME oyRENpo fed jo woreda! oFDAY, ‘one afta gp jo uoyynndiuon omy ut pose you Sea 12-0207 WOH Ons ean 2o4pmO 5 “oye esa op Jo wirendiuon ox) ut pooh ou Beal ZZ-TCOE wow of [eas -mPNO) “Posowas 12-0207 to ope eAyAmS oNNMO HA uA ROK Oty EP a wo Posey ones UoLESpUny “Smoptys popeidunjuausyjarua woronpe [eysods paureyt “yous woreanpo mes woe wontonpa Jo wound Aowioy Aon 2m) MO POUTEIQO 218 CL SBIIOT OMOT 15660 L500't 200s 65001 ,s1z60 oBeiony To6e'rr | 9% Sus #11 soLoI ¢ ozor 186 826 w6 106 ze-b20z sese'rr [sz90'y ZIT $8601 sz801 SOOT el oor we se se-0z0z seo'st | ass'r | oz 16 £601 S“L601 zor 666 £56 oz-6L0z sstz'st [11] sue ed srse'st |sore'r} osc’ ¥ £001 BL-LL0z, ozo'st | eca'y 886 LL-oL0z Wie,” TOL TOL td the 89 sq aqe, v115 G. Birth Data Kindergarten enroliments were calculated as follows: birth data, lagged five years behind its respective kindergarten class, were used to calculate the survival ratio for each bitth-to- kindergarten cohort. For instance, in 2016, there were 35 births in Scaside Heights. Five years later (the 2021-22 school year), 24 children enrolled in kindergarten, which is equal to a survival ratio of 0.686 from birth to kindergarten. Birth counts and birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios are displayed in Table D6 for Seaside Heights and Toms River Regional. Birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios greater than 1.000 indicate that some children are bom outside of a community's boundaries and are attending kindergarten in the school district five years later, ie., an inward ‘migration of children into the district, This type of inward migration is typical in school districts with excellent reputations, because the appeal of a good school district draws families into the community. Inward migration is also seen in communities where there are a large number of new housing starts (or home resales), with families moving into the community having children of age to attend kindergarten. Birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios that are below 1.000 indicate that a number of children born within a community are not attending kindergarten in the school district five years later. This is common in communities where a high proportion of children attend private, parochial, charter, or out-of-district special education facilites, or where there is a net migration of families moving out of the community. It is also common in school districts that have a half-day kindergarten program where parents choose to send their child to a private full-day kindergarten for the first year. It should be noted that the Seaside Heights School District and Toms River Regional have had full-day kindergarten programs throughout the historical enrollment period, 2016-17 to 2021-22. Birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios have been below 1.000 in five of the last six years in the Seaside Heights School District yet have been very inconsistent, ranging from 0.600-1.161. The district’s survival ratios have been much lower in the last three years. In Toms River Regional, birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios have been below 1.000 in each of the last six years, ranging from 0.706-0.976. The birth-to-kindergarten survival ratio declined sharply in 2020-21, which is likely due to the pandemic, as parents sought alternative educational experiences for their children, or may have had to relocate. Geocoded birth data were provided by the New Jersey Center for Health Statistics (/NICHS”) from 2011-2020 by assigning geographic coordinates to a birth mother based on her street address. In Seaside Heights, the annual number of births has ranged from 26-46 over this time period with the birth count being lower in the last few years. In Toms River Regional, Toms River has consistently had the greatest number of births of the four communities during this time period. The number of births in Toms River was fairly stable before increasing in the last three years. The number of births has increased from 891 in 2011 to 1,025 in 2020, which are 134 additional births. Beachwood has had the second-greatest number of births over this time period, ranging from 115-137 births per year. The number of births in Beachwood has been lower in the last three years. In South Toms River and Pine Beach, the annual number of births has been much smaller over this time period, ranging from 37-61 and 10- 23, respectively. 719588491 zor‘ “SOMSHRIS WIESE 204 JoVUa> Kasroy MON a) £q popraad xO wep YUE, :OPON. veesete lor‘ $06 ssi 76 vor we 9z0T ove e 890'T 698 0¢ 6s0'T 198 wm 666 La 9E. 00° 650'L 6r8 e460 9 886 060° 168 8780 6 rey sueaks sjuapys uapeB pu suuie, reek, sme sonny swo, oney al sweoks | sung reawung | syuepng | syyBioH +e uapeb | opiseas ss0pupt 9a aiqes UISIC }oo4Ng Sw6I9H epjseeg17 H. Potential New Housing Representatives from Seaside Heights, Beachwood, Pine Beach, South Toms River, and Toms River provided information regarding current and future residential development in their respective communities. A list of approved developments in each municipality, if any, is shown in Table D7 and includes the number of units, housing type, and project status. New houses to be built on single in-fill lots, or the subdivision of existing lots, or homes that are built after the demolition of an existing older home, were excluded. In the latter instance, there is no net gain in the number of housing units, 1. Borough of Seaside Heights In Seaside Heights, there is the potential for two developments as part of the borough's redevelopment plan, both of which have been approved. The first development will consist of 79 for-sale condominiums on Hamilton Avenue and Boulevard as part of a mixed-used project with retail spaces and a restaurant. The second project, which is located on Franklin Avenue and Boulevard, will consist of 11 detached single-family homes and four (4) market-rate three- bedroom apartment units. This development is also a mixed-use project with retail space on the first floor. While not shown in the table, there are 75 detached single-family homes and 29 condominium units either under construction or recently completed, Due to the boroughs location near the ocean, most of the units in the pending and recently-constructed developments are likely to be purchased by second-home owners, which would have little impact on the school district. Table D7 Potential New Housing Developments by Municipality Subdivision/Location ‘Municipality Project Status/Notes. Hamilton Avenue and Boulevard = Single-Family Franklin Avenue and Boulevard | Seaside Heights an) and Apartment (43-BR) ‘Seaside Heights Total Washington Avenue Veterans Housing auues Pine Beach Landing Z “Townhouse Clearbrook Homes Detached (33 arose Ove) Single-Family Clearbrook Homes "Detached (230 W, Bar Avenue) Single-Family Pavlon Mall Wil consist of one and Apartment | tro-becroom unit 20% of units wil be Camelot at Toms River sw unde or Low Moder Insoma fowcbolde ‘Toms River Regional Total rissees18 Regarding historical new construction, the number of certificates of occupancy (“CO”) is shown for Seaside Heights and the Toms River Regional geographical area from 2016-2021 in Table D8. A total of 91 COs wore issued in Seaside Heights from 2016-2021, which is related to the constructed of Comerstone at Seaside Heights, an age-restricted apartment building with 91 Table D8 Numi Resi ‘Toms River Regional Geographical Area 182 12 | Famiyy Family Family | Mixea Use 0 a8, 6 454 0 281_| 182 | 463 0 275 [130 [405 0 237 | 48 | 285 2 0 2 Tota! 257_| 58 191 36 | 247 1689 | 480_| 2,169 ‘Source: New Jersey Department of Community Affairs. 2, Toms River Regional Geographical Area In Beachwood, there are no residential developments under construction, nor are there applications for residential subdivisions before the planning board. In Pine Beach, a six-unit apartment building for veterans was recently constructed on Washington Avenue. In addition, there is the potential for a small townhouse development consisting of seven (7) units. In South ‘Toms River, there is the potential for one development off of Drake Lane as part of the borough's redevelopment plan, which will consist of 30 affordable apartment units. The development is not yet under construction and will be several years before construction and occupancy is complete. None of the developments in Beachwood, Pine Beach, or South Toms River would have an impact on either East Dover or Toms River Intermediate School East as students in these communities attend Beachwood Elementary School (K-5), Pine Beach Elementary School (K-5), South Toms River Elementary School, and Toms River Intermediate South (6-8). In Toms River, in the East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East attendance areas, there is the potential for two subdivisions by Clearbrook Homes consisting of 15 and 14 detached single-family homes, respectively. In addition, there is the potential for 128 apartment units on Caudina Avenue (Camelot at Toms River), whereby 20% of the units will be set aside to meet affordable housing requirements. While there is the potential for additional residential developments in other sections of Toms River, they are not considered here as they would have no impact on enroliments in the East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East attendance areas. With respect to historical residential construction, 2,169 COs were issued in the Toms Rivet Regional geographical area from 2016-2021. 719508619 When determining the impact of future new housing, it should be clearly stated that enrollment projections utilize cohort survival ratios that do take into account prior new home construction growth. Children who move into new homes during the historical period are captured by the survival ratios, as these ratios will be used to project future enrollments. Therefore, its not appropriate to add all of the new children generated from future housing units without considering the historical period, as double counting would occur, since the survival ratios have already increased due to the new children. The baseline enrollment projections should only be adjusted if the projected housing growth is significantly greater than prior housing growth, While the proposed number of non- age-restricted housing units in Seaside Heights is greater than that which occurred since 2016, the baseline enrollment projections were not modified to account for additional children from the new housing developments as most of the homes will likely be occupied by second-home owners and will not send children to the school district. Regarding Toms River Regional, the proposed number of housing units (170) is likely less than that which were built in the East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East attendance areas from 2016- 2021, as there were 2,169 housing units builtin the Toms River Regional geographical area during this time period. As such, the baseline enrollment projections were not modified in Toms River Regional. L Enrollment Projections Enrollments were projected from 2022-23 through 2031-32 for the Seaside Heights School District and Toms River Regional. While the enrollment projection timeframe is ten years, it should be noted that a five-year projection is more reliable than a ten-year projection, Since birth data are used to project kindergarten students five years later, the ten-year projection in years 6-10 relies on estimated birth counts in order to project the number of kindergarten students, For instance, in the 8 year of the ten-year projection, which corresponds to 2029-30, estimated birth data for 2024 would be needed to project the number of kindergarten students, For this reason, elementary projections are much more susceptible to higher error rates in a ten-year projection as compared to middle or high school projections, which rely on either children that have already been born or that are currently enrolled. Self-contained special education/ungraded enrollments were computed by calculating the historical proportion of self-contained special education/ungraded students with respect to the regular education subtotals and multiplying that value by the future regular education subtotals. With respect to projecting grade-level pre-kindergarten students, an average was computed using historical data in the Seaside Heights School District to estimate future pre-kindergarten enrollments. In Toms River Regional, as the school district recently expanded its pre-kindergarten program in 2021-22, the most recent pre-kindergarten count (264) was used throughout the projection period. On September 10, 2010, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie signed into law the Interdistrict School Choice Program (“Choice”), which took effect in the 2011-12 school year. This enables students the choice in attending a school outside their district of residence if the selected school is participating in the choice program. The choice school sefs the number of ‘openings per grade level. The Seaside Heights School District is a choice school district 719588420 According to the district's choice profile on the NIDOE website, the district will accept two students in grades K-1 in 2023-24, Choice students are included in the historical counts shown previously and the forthcoming projections. As part of the School Funding Reform Act of 2008 (‘SFRA”), all school districts in New Jersey are to provide expanded Abbott-quality pre-school programs for at-risk 3- and 4-year-olds as outlined in NAC. 6A:13A, The State of New Jersey intends to provide aid for the full-day Program based on projected enrollment, School districts categorized as District Factor Group* (‘DFG”) A, B, and CD with a concentration of at-risk pupils equal to or greater than 40 percent, must offer a pre-school program to all pre-school aged children regardless of income, known as “Universal” pre-school. For all other schoo! districts, a pre-school program must be offered only to at-risk children, known as “Targeted” preschool. School districts were required to offer these programs to at least 90% of the eligible pre-school children by 2013-14, School districts may educate the pre-school children in district, by outside providers, or through Head Start programs. Due to budgetary constraints, the NIDOE postponed the roll-out of the program, which was scheduled for the 2009-10 school year. According to a recent conversation with Ms. Karin Garver, Educational Program Development Specialist in the NIDOE Early Childhood Education, there are no plans in the imminent future by the State Legislature to fund the program, which would prevent school districts from implementing the program. The pre-school program would have been rolled out over a five-year period according to the following schedule: At least 20% of the eligible pre-school universe in Year 1 At least 35% of the universe in Year 2 At least 50% of the universe in Year 3 At least 65% of the universe in Year 4 At least 90% of the universe in Year $ The universe of pre-school children in “Universal” districts is computed by multiplying the 1* grade enrollment in 2007-08 by two. The universe of pre-school children in “Targeted” districts is computed by multiplying the 1* grade enrollment in 2007-08 by two and then multiplying by the percentage of students (K-12) having free or reduced lunch in the district. The Seaside Heights School District is a Universal district as its DFG is A while Toms River Regional is a “Targeted” district with a DFG of DE. Table D9 shows the potential impact on the school districts if the program were mandated. * introduced by the New Jersey Depurtent of Education in 1975, it provides a stm of ranking school dics in he sate by thir socio econo sats, Walle he system i n0 Inger used th numberof pre-kindergarten side's Was determined bythe former DFG rankings 795004a Table D9 Estimated Number of Eligible Pre-School Students by School District as Per School Funding Reform Act of 2008 % Freel ‘School District Reduced ‘Lunch Seaside Heights 88.27% | 52 Total eligible ‘Toms River Regional Source: New Jersey Department of Education, Division of Early Childhood Education, 14.21% For the purpose of this study, it has been assumed that each school district would educate the pre-school children in their respective districts. As the table shows, the largest impact on enrollment would be in Toms River Regional, where 348 children would be eligible for the Program, Since it is unclear if and when the program will be funded and subsequently mandated, the forthcoming enrollment projections do not include additional pre-kindergarten students from the SFRA. Ina different pre-school initiative, the administration of Governot Phil Murphy announced the availability of Preschool Education Expansion Aid (“PEA”) in 2018. In September 2018, the first round of funding ($20.6 million) was publicized, where 31 districts received aid to expand their pre-kindergarten programs. A second round of funding was announced in January 2019, providing 33 additional school districts with roughly $27 million in funding. The second round targeted districts whose free and reduced lunch percentage is above 20% and who have not previously received State preschool aid. Districts that receive PEEA funding will be expected to develop a plan for implementing all elements of high quality education across the preschool program in the coming years, including conversion of all half-day slots to full-day slots with a minimum six-hour day and decreasing maximum class size to 15 children. Districts receiving funds also will be expected to provide certified teachers and aides for such programs and to include special needs students in such programs. PEEA is open to all age-cligible children who are residents of the district. PEA funds can be used to cover costs of transportation for preschoolers, and if the district provides busing for K-12 students, it is required to provide transportation for preschoolers as well. Some districts that were eligible to apply for PEEA would fall under the “Universal” category while others would be considered “Targeted” districts. However, the main difference with this expansion aid is that districts under SFRA were restricted to serve low-income children where now districts can educate all pre-school age children through PEEA. It appears that the Murphy administration may be moving towards a pre-school program for all children, rather than just for those who are low-income. Neither school district received a PEEA grant and therefore has no bearing on the outcome of this study. misses22 1. Seaside Heights School District Projected enrollments for the Seaside Heights School District are shown in Table D10. Enrollments (PK-6) are projected to decline through 2029-30 before reversing trend, Enrollment is projected to be 171 in 2031-32, which would be a decline of 42 students from the 2021-22 enrollment of 213. Table D10 jected Enrollments (PK- 2022-23 to 2031-32 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 ‘Notes: 'Pre-kindergarten regular education enrollment. *Self-contained special education enrollment/ungraded students. 2. Toms River Regional Schools Projected enrollments for Toms River Regional (PK-12) are shown in Table D11. Enrollments are projected to decline through 2026-27 before reversing trend. In 2031-32, enrollment is projected to be 14,617, which would be a gain of 226 students from the 2021-22 enrollment of 14,391. In addition, Table D1 displays the projected enroliments for the PK-5, 6-8, and 9-12 grade configurations. For grades PK-5, entoliments are projected to steadily increase before stabilizing near the end of the projection period. In 2031-32, enrollment is projected to be 7,226, which would be a gain of 883 students from the 2021-22 enrollment of 6,343. For grades 6-8, enrollments are projected to decline through 2027-28 before reversing trend. Enrollment is projected to be 3,514 in 2031-32, which would be a gain of 113 students from the 2021-22 enrollment of 3,401. Finally, for grades 9-12, enrollments are projected to decline before stabilizing near the end of the projection period. In 2031-32, enrollment is projected to be 3,877, which would be a decline of 770 students from the 2021-22 enrollment of 4,647. ‘79se9623 Table D11 ‘Toms River Regional Schools Projected Enrollments (PK-12) 2022-23 to 2031-32 2022-23 1048 11201174 2023-24 oss 1034 1131 2024-25 1026 1041 1044 2025-26 982 1013. 1051 2026-27 971 969 1023 2027-28 958 978 2028-29 960 2029-30 963 2030-31 938 2031-32 996 ‘Notes: ' Pre-kindergarten regular education enrollment. 2 Self-contained special education enrollmentungraded students. 7195884J. Capacity Analysis Table D12 shows the building capacity of Boyd in the Seaside Heights School District in ‘comparison to the current enrollment in 2021-22 and the projected enroliment in 2026-27. While the projections were completed through 2031-32, the capacity is compared to the projection in 2026-27, as a five-year projection is more reliable than a ten-year projection. In addition, the table shows the capacities of East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East in Toms River Regional in comparison to the current enrollments in 2021-22. Since enrollments were not projected at the building level in Toms River Regional, the capacities for East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East were not compared to the projected enrollments, as Toms River Regional has twelve elementary schools and three intermediate schools. Instead, the building capacities of the grades configurations (PK-5 and 6-8) were compared to the projected enrollments in 2026-27 to determine whether Toms River Regional can accommodate the students from Seaside Heights. Using the capacities from each districts’ Long Range Facilities Plan, the differences between building capacity and current/projected number of students were computed. Positive values indicate available extra seating while negative values indicate inadequate seating, also known as “unhoused students.” It is important to note that the term “unhoused” students is not intended to convey that there will be no space for additional students from Seaside Heights, Instead, this section is an overview of “functional” capacity, based upon how the space within the school currently is being utilized. Districts with unhoused students can accommodate these children by increasing class sizes, which in turn increases the school’s capacity. As such, the capacity of a school is not a fixed value and can be changed depending on how the building is used, As discussed previously, students from Seaside Heights currently attend the Seaside Heights School District for grades PK-6. The capacities of the school in the Seaside Heights School District and grade configurations in Toms River Regional will be compared in two scenarios: (1) the status quo where Seaside Heights students (PK-6) remain in their current location; and (2) the creation of a new sending-receiving relationship between Seaside Heights and ‘Toms River Regional where students in Seaside Heights would attend East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East for grades PK-6, essentially making Seaside Heights a non-operating school district. Seaside Heights students in grades 7-12 would continue to be educated in Central Regional. In the Seaside Heights School District, there is currently surplus seating (+34) in Boyd in 2021-22. If Seaside Heights continues to operate Boyd, the number of surplus seats is projected to be greater (+71) in 2026-27 due to a projected decline in enrollment. risseeseast PIS [puoray sary swe 219 £q popraoud se sonyoede, wie Bury UOT ogy Woy Ayfoedeo soonoUsg TMNSICL, “umoys onyea ayy ue yUAIAYP SE Septing 9 Jo sepfoudio wasino ap Peindeoo oxaM sopoedso ayn way um Kqua.4p pom Fug am sooeds uonmnasut sBeIpNG HI, i810 (6-9) eyeypounsyuy (G4) Arequowa.g 380g "S71 J0ATy suioy “Sa 4on0g seg z sone . sny6joH opiseos SwePMS ‘siyBIoH episees aM vnsia az-9z07 juauqjoiu3 paroefoid ‘S[shqeuy MipedeD erg eqey st26 In Toms River Regional, there is currently a large number of surplus seats (+294) at East Dover while Toms River Intermediate School East (-9) is at capacity in 2021-22. At the elementary and intermediate school grade configurations, there are a large number of surplus seats in 2021-22 with the greatest occurring at the elementary grade configuration (+2391). As discussed above, enrollments were not projected at the building level. In 2026-27, both the elementary and intermediate school grade configurations are projected to have a large number of surplus seats, with the greatest occurring at the elementary grade configuration (+1,816), If Seaside Heights students attend Toms River Regional, the elementary grade configuration (11,663) and the intermediate grade configuration (+828) would still have a large number of surplus seats, While enrollments were not projected at the building level in Toms River Regional, East Dover would likely be able to accommodate the 153 Seaside Heights students (PK-5) projected in 2026-27 as it currently has 294 surplus seats. While Toms River Intermediate School East is currently at capacity (-9), the number of 6 grade students from Seaside Heights is projected to be 23 in 2026-27, which would have minimal impact on the school. In addition, intermediate school enrollments are projected to decline in the district over the next decade. In summary, Toms River Regional should be able to accommodate Seaside Heights students in grades PK-6, K. — Economically Disadvantaged Students As a proxy for measuring poverty in a school district, counts of students receiving free or reduced lunch were compiled from 2016-17 through 2021-22. The total number of economically disadvantaged students was compiled by district and affected schools and is shown in Table D13, The within-schooV/ district percentages were also computed and are shown in Table D14. Table D13 Number of Economically Disadvantaged Students by District 2016-17 to 2021-22 Brie [press | sree | sonat [ paras | sessetnneroar | 209 238 285 230 227 East Dover E.S. 246 as | 32 | 33 | 353 | on | 250 Toms River LS. East ‘Toms River Regional Total 4,107 | 4,449.5 | 4,707 | 4,065 | 4,360 Sources: New Jersey Department of Education Enroliment data (atip/wrww nj. govinided datalent) and School Performance Reports httys/te doe state. ‘orSchool.aspx. misses27 Table D14 Within-School Percentages of Economically Disadvantaged Students by District 2016-17 to 2021.22 District/Schoo! 1. Seaside Heights School District ‘The number of economically disadvantaged students in the Seaside Heights School District (PK-6) declined through 2018-19 before reversing trend. In 2021-22, there were 173 economically disadvantaged students, which is identical to the number in 2016-17. The percentage of economically disadvantaged students in the district also declined through 2018-19 before reversing trend. Over this time period, the percentage of economically disadvantaged students ranged from 62.1%-82.4%. In 2021-22, 81.2% of the students were economically disadvantaged. 2, Toms River Regional Schools The number of economically disadvantaged students in Toms River Regional (PK-12) has ranged from 4,065-4,516.5 with no apparent increasing or declining trend. The percentage of students that are economically disadvantaged has ranged from 26.7%-31.3% in the last six years, In 2021-22, 30.3% of the students were economically disadvantaged. At East Dover Elementary School, the percentage of economically disadvantaged students ‘Was greater than the school district’s overall percentage in each last of the last six years, ranging from 31.7%-38.4%, In 2021-22, 34.8% of students were economically disadvantaged. At Toms River Intermediate School East, the percentage of economically disadvantaged students was much lower than that of the school district in each last of the last six years, ranging from 21.4%-25.1%. ‘In 2021-22, 22.2% of students were economically disadvantaged. 719588428 TIL. Racial Impact The following section analyzes the historical enrollments by race for the Seaside Heights School District, and East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School Eastin Toms River Regional. In particular, the racial composition | of Boyd in the Seaside Heights School District and East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East in Toms River Regional will be compared in two scenarios: (1) the status quo where Seaside Heights students (PK-6) remain in their current location; and (2) the creation of a new sending-receiving relationship between Seaside Heights and Toms River Regional where students in Seaside Heights would attend East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East for grades PK-6, essentially making Seaside Heights a non-operating school district. Seaside Heights students in grades 7-12 would continue to be educated in Central Regional. The NIDOE classifies students according to the following seven races pursuant to federal guidelines: White, Black/African American, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Native American/Alaskan Native, Hispanic, or Two or More Races. In the following tables, Asians, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders (hereafter referred to as Asians in the narrative) were grouped together for tabulation purposes. Minority students were defined as being a race other than White, which includes Black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American/Alaskan Native, or Two or More Races. A. Seaside Heights School District Enrollments by Race District Totals (PK-6) As there is only one school in the Seaside Heights School District, the district's enrollment and that of Boyd are identical. In Table D15, the number and percent of students by race in the ‘Seaside Heights School District is displayed from 2016-17 to 2021-22, a six-year period. Table D15 ‘ide Heights Schoo! District (PK-6) Enrollments by Ra 2016-17 to 2021-22 Year 2016-17 2017-1 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 ‘Source: New Jersey Department of Education (htpi/wwrw.nj.gownjded/datalent). 7issaee29 “The largest race in the district is Hispanic, whose number has been fairly stable, ranging from 99-122 students per year. Over the six-year period, the Hispanic student percentage has increased from 47.14% to 52.38%, a gain of 5.24 percentage points. ‘Whites are the second-largest race and have ranged from 62-68 students per year, In the last six years, the White percentage has ranged from 27.04%-32.38%, Blacks are the third-largest race in the district and have declined from 24 students in 2016- 17 to 14 in 2021-22. In the last six years, the Black percentage decreased from 11.43% to 6.67%, which is a loss of 4.76 percentage points. The number of students of Two or More races has ranged from 13-19 per year over this ‘time period while the Two or More races percentage has ranged from 6.01%9.05%. ‘The number of students who are Asian was insignificant and did not exceed six (6) students in any year. There were no students who were Native American/Alaskan Native. In the last six years, the number of minority students has been fairly stable, ranging from 142-170. Over this time period, the minority percentage has also been fairly stable, ranging from 67.62% to 72.96%. In Table D16, the number and percentage of Seaside Heights students by race from 2016- 17 to 2021-22 is shown for various grade groupings to show the racial impact on Toms River Regional (PK-5 and 6-8). 719588430 Table D16 side Heights Enrollments 2016-17 to 2021.22 2016-17 2017-18 2018-49 2019.20 2020-21 2021-22 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 ‘Source: New Jersey Department of Education (hips wanw.n] gov ena! ‘Note: As NIDOE enrollments by race are no longer available at the grade level beginning in 2019-20, the Seaside Heights NJ SMART enrollment files were used to determine race by grade from 2019-20 to 2021-22. As such, the total enrollment ‘counts differ slightly from those in the NIDOE database shown earlier in the report. 79588431 B. —_ Toms River Regional Schools Enrollments by Race 1. District Totals (PK-12) Toms River Regional’s enrollments by race from 2016-17 to 2021-22 are shown in Table DI7. While Whites are the largest race in the district, the number and percentage of White students has been declining. From 2016-17 to 2021-22, the number of White students declined from 11,420 to 9,200, a loss of 2,220 students. The percentage of White students in the school district also has declined, as 73.11% of the student population was White in 2016-17 as compared to 63.93% in 2021-22, a loss of 9.18 percentage points. Table D17 Toms ional Schools (PK-12) Enrolim: Ract 2016-17 to 2021-22 Year 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Source: New Jersey Department of Edueation (apy wnvw nl govinided/data/ent). Hispanics are the second-largest race in the school district. The number of Hispanic students has increased from 2,353.5 to 3,311.5 in the last six years, a gain of 958 students. Expressed as a percentage, 15.07% of the student population was Hispanic in 2016-17 as compared to 23.01% in 2021-22, a gain of 7.94 percentage points. The number of Black students slowly declined through 2020-21 before reversing trend. In 2021-22, there were 764,5 Black students as compared to 796.5 in 2016-17, a decline of 32 students. From 2016-17 to 2021-22, the percentage of Black students has been fairly stable, ranging from 4.95%-5.31%. Blacks are the third-largest race in the school district. Asians are the fourth-largest race in the school district. In the last six years, the number of Asian students declined from 625 to 523, which is a decline of 102 students. Despite the decline, the Asian student percentage has been fairly stable, ranging from 3.63%-4.00%, The number of students who are Native American/Alaskan Native ranged from 7-15 students per year while the Native American/Alaskan Native percentage ranged from 0.05%- 0.10%, 7igseee32 Finally, the number of students of Two or More races inereased from 411 in 2016-17 to 583.5 in 2021-22, a gain of 172.5 students. The Two or More races percentage increased from 2.63% to 4.05% over this time period, a gain of 1.42 percentage points. As a result of the increasing Hispanic and Two or More races populations, there has been 2 gain of 991 minority students since 2016-17. The percentage of minority students has grown from 26.89% in 2016-17 to 36.07% in 2021-22, a gain of 9.18 percentage points, which is also partially due to the declining White student population. 2, East Dover Elementary School (PK-) The racial composition of East Dover is slightly different than the district’s racial composition as it has a greater White percentage and smaller Hispanic percentage as shown in Table D18. Whites are the largest race in the school and their number was fairly stable before declining in 2021-22. In the last six years, the number of White students decreased from 496 to 453, which is a loss of 43 students. Over this time period, the percentage of White students has been fairly stable, ranging from 69.37%-71,99%, Table D18 rer Element 101 (PK-5) Enrollments by Rat 2046-17 to 2021-22 2018-19, 2019-20 2020-21 Bleielala/e 2021-22 Source: New Jersey Department of Education (http://www.nj.gov/njded/data/enr/). Hispanics are the second-largest race in the school. The number of Hispanic students has ‘been very stable in the last six years, ranging from 123-132 students per year. Over this time period, the percentage of Hispanic students ranged from 17.52%-19.45%. ‘The number of Black students has been fairly stable, ranging from 23-33 students per year. From 2016-17 to 2021-22, the percentage of Black students ranged from 3,28%-4,44%, Blacks are the third-largest race in the school. The number of Asian students has ranged from 11-18 students per year while the percentage of Asian students ranged from 1.68%-2.56%. 7iasaee33 The number of students who are Native American/Alaskan Native was insignificant with one (1) or fewer students each year. ‘The number of students of Two or More races has ranged from 24-41 students per year while the Two or More races percentage has ranged ftom 3.48%-5.52%. From 2016-17 to 2021-22, the number of minority students in the school has been fairly stable, ranging from 193-220 students per year. Likewise, the percentage of minority students has been fairly stable, ranging from 28.01% to 30.63%, 2) __ East Dover Elementary School with Seaside Heights Students If the Seaside Heights School District closes Boyd and Seaside Heights students instead attended East Dover in Toms River Regional for grades PK-5, Table D19 estimates what the racial distribution would have been from 2016-17 to 2021-22 using Seaside Heights enrollment data (grade PK-5) by race. The racial percentage point changes, shown in Table D20, were computed by using the data found in Tables D18 and D19. Table D19 East Dover Elementary School (PK-5) Enrollments by Race with Seaside Heights Students 2016-17 to 2021-22 Year 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 If East Dover received students from Seaside Heights, the percentage of White students in East Dover would have decreased by 7.96 to 9.97 percentage points from 2016-17 to 2021-29. Over the same time period, Hispanic students in East Dover would have increased by 6.92 to 7.70 percentage points while the percentage of Black students would have increased by 0.29 to 2.51 percentage points. The percentage of students of Two or more races would have increased by 0.19 to 0.76 porcentage points, Finally, the Asian and Native American/Alaskan Native percentages would be largely unchanged. The percentage of minority students would have increased by 7.96 to 9.97 percentage points from 2016-17 to 2021-22, 719588434 Table D20 Percentage Point Change by East Dover E! with Seaside Heights Stu 2016-17 to 2021-22 Native JAsian, Native] ‘American or| Hawailan, or Alaskan | Pacific Native | Islander 7 #692 0.03 0.065 itary School (PK- Hispanic 2017-18 47.25 0.04 $0.08 2018-19 +742 0.03 O41 2019-20 z 47a2 0.03 40.08 2020-21 7.10 0.00 0.02 2021-22 +7.60 0.00 +021 3. Toms River Intermediate School East (6-8) From 2016-17 to 2021-22, the racial composition of Toms River Intermediate School East was slightly different than the district’s racial composition as it has a greater White percentage and a smaller Hispanic percentage. As shown in Table D21, while Whites are the largest race in the school, the number of White students has declined from 1,131 to 994 over this time period, which is a loss of 137 students. Likewise, the percentage of White students declined from 82.74% to 76.17% over this time period, which is a loss of 6.57 percentage points, Table D214 Toms Intermediate School East (6-8) Enrollments by Rat (6-17 to 2021-22 ‘Source: New Jersey Deparment of Education (tp/wrwwn govided/datalear), Hispanics are the second-largest race in the school. From 2016-17 to 2021-22, the number of Hispanic students has increased from 152 to 180, a gain of 28 students. In 2016-17, 11.12% of the student population was Hispanic as compared to 13.79% in 2021-22, a gain of 2.67 percentage points. ‘Tisseas35 In the last six years, the number of Black students was fairly stable, ranging from 32-45 et year, The perventage of Black students ranged from 2.20%-3.17%. Blacks are the third-largest race in the school. From 2016-17 to 2021-22, the number of Asian students ranged from 23-38 while the percentage of Asian students ranged from 1.68%-2.84%. Asians are the fourth-largest race in the school. The number of students who are Native American/Alaskan Native was insignificant with one (1) or fewer students per year, The number of students of Two or More races increased from 25 in 2016-17 to 56 in 2021- 22, while the Two or More races percentage increased from 1.83% to 4.29%, a gain of 2.46 percentage points. In the last six years, there has been an increase of 75 minority students in the school, which is primarily due to the increasing Hispanic and Two or More races student populations. The percentage of minority students has increased from 17.26% in 2016-17 to 23.83% in 2021-22, a gain of 6.57 percentage points, which is also partially due to the declining White student population. a) _ Toms River Intermediate School East with Seaside Heights Students If the Seaside Heights School District closes Boyd and Seaside Heights students instead attended Toms River Intermediate School East in Toms River Regional for grade 6, Table D22 estimates what the racial distribution would have been from 2016-17 to 2021-22 in Toms River Intermediate School East. The racial percentage point changes, shown in Table D23, were computed by using the data found in Tables D21 and D22. If Toms River Intermediate School East received students from Seaside Heights, the White percentage in Toms River would have decreased by 0.34 to 1.33 percentage points from 2016-17 to 2021-22. Over this time period, Hispanics would have increased by 0.14 to 1.02 percentage points and Blacks would have increased by 0.01 to 0.37 percentage points, The percentage change of students who are or Two or More races would have increased by 0.02 to 0.36 percentage points, The Asian and Native American/Alaskan Native percentages would be largely unchanged. The percentage of minority students would have increased by 0.34 to 1,33 percentage points from 2016-17 to 2021-22, 719588436 Table D22 Toms River Intermediate School East (6-8) Enrollments by Rac ith Seaside Heights Students 2016-17 to 2021-22 Hiap- 2or Year |wnte| % |Bieck| % | Mer | * More Races! Native 2016-47 | 1142 Jaaaore] 38 [270%] 156 [rr2e%] 0 [oom] 24 | 179%] 26 |rsen) isu | au | i7s% 2017-48 | 1206 |si2m| 37 | 249% | 184 [rz40m] 0 foo] 26 | 1.75%] si f2om| sae | 278 2018-49 | 1150 |7920%| si | sso | 192 [rzex] 0 fooox} 28 | 19%] 32 fazam] saes | 289 | 20s%e 2010-20 | 1117 |rras%| ax | 280%] 196 [rss] 0 Joao] 38 | 2am] a faser| sass | aie | a205re 2020-21 | 1031 [753i] a1 | 299% | 205 [iso] 1 oom] ae | 27%] sx [sem] 13@ | sie | 240% 2021-22 Table D23 Pel int Chan; Race at Toms Rive with Seaside Heights Stude ‘2016-17 to 2021-22 [Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Pacific Islander 40.05 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.04 risssse37 E, Demographic and Racial Summary The purpose of the preceding section of the study is to compare the racial composition of all affected schools to the status quo if « new sending-receiving relationship is created between Seaside Heights and Toms River Regional, where students in Seaside Heights would attend East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East for grades PK-6. To perform the racial analysis, enrollments were tabulated by race from 2016-17 to 2021-22 and racial percentages were computed for the Seaside Heights School District and Toms River Regional, as well as East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East. The analysis computed the change in racial percentages in East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East with the addition of Seaside Heights students to Toms River Regional. In addition, this summary includes a synopsis of the building capacities of the grades configurations (PK-5 and 6-8) in Toms River Regional in comparison to the projected enrollments in 2026-27 with the addition of Seaside Heights students. While the projections were completed through 2031-32, the capacities are compared to the projections in 2026-27 as a five-year projection is more reliable than a ten-year projection. ‘The racial demographics in the Seaside Heights student population are diverse as 70.48% of the student population was non-White in 2021-22, whereby the largest race was Hispanic (52.38%) followed by White (29.52%). In Toms River Regional, the racial demographics have changed from 2016-17 to 2021-22. In 2021-22, the largest race is White at 63.93% followed by Hispanic at 23.01%. In the last six ‘years, White student enrollments have been declining, while Hispanic student enrollments have ‘been increasing, If Seaside Heights students were to attend East Dover and Toms River Intermediate School East in Toms River Regional, Seaside Heights students would add to the diversity in each school. In particular, the Hispanic percentage in each school would increase with the addition of Seaside Heights students. While enrollments were not projected at the building level in Toms River Regional, East Dover would likely be able to accommodate the 153 Seaside Heights students (PK-5) projected in 2026-27 as it currently has 294 surplus seats. While Toms River Intermediate School East is currently at capacity (-9), the number of 6* grade students from Seaside Heights is projected to be 23 in 2026-27, which would have minimal impact on the school. In addition, intermediate school enrollments are projected to decline in the district over the next decade. In short, Toms River Regional should be able to accommodate Seaside Heights students in grades PK-6. The consultants conclude that Seaside Heights should consider closing Boyd Elementary School, becoming a non-operating school district, and creating a new sending-receiving relationship with Toms River Regional for grades PK-6. It also is the consultants’ opinion that there would be no negative racial impact on Seaside Heights students if a new sending-receiving relationship was created with Toms River Regional. resase38 IV. Educational Impact A. Introduction ‘As stated previously, the Seaside Heights School District is a single school public school district comprised of the Hugh J. Boyd Elementary School. The school district provides PK through Grade 6 education for resident students and students that enroll in the district through the Inter-district Public School Choice program ("Choice Program"). Seaside Heights’ students are entitled to complete grades 7 through 12 at the Central Regional School District, as Seaside Heights, is a constituent member of the Regional School District. A five member Board of Education, a Superintendent and a Business Administrator govern the Seaside Heights District; the school has a Principal. The Educational Impact section looks at the educational feasibility of Seaside Heights closing the Boyd Elementary School and entering into a sending-receiving relationship with the Toms River Board of Education whereby Seaside Heights’ students in grades PK through 6 would bbe educated in Toms River. The analysis in this section specifically focuses on the variables that ‘impact educational services and programs. Toms River has indicated that, if a new sending-receiving relationship were established, students from Seaside Heights would attend East Dover Elementary School PK through Grade 5 and Intermediate East School for Grade 6. In order to understand potential opportunities and challenges that may result from a sending-receiving relationship, feasibility studies utilize the most recent school data to compare the current school that students attend with the prospective school(s). The Covid-19 pandemic, however, has interrupted teaching and learning and has impacted school data in New Jersey; regularly scheduled NJ Department of Education assessments were canceled in the Spring of 2019 and Spring of 2022 and the Start Strong Fall assessments that were administered to gather baseline data on students returning to school post pandemic, are not correlated with the earlier Spring assessments. Only recently is data from how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted student learning being ‘gathered and analyzed (initial results from the National Assessment of Educational Progress or “NAEP” study were released in September, 2022 by the National Center for Education statistics), This section will use data from the 2018-19 NIDOE School performance reports and websites to compare the schools, with the caveat that more recent data may illustrate the pandemic’s impact and underscore — as researchers have begun to report ~ that students who were underachieving are even more so, post pandemic. School performance data will be considered and will aim to address the following overarching questions: 1, Will students from the Seaside Heights School District have the opportunity to receive a high-quality education in the Toms River School District? 2. Will the sending-receiving relationship present challenges for certain communities or special student populations coming from Seaside Heights? ‘9588439 B, School Profiles and Demographics A solid educational analysis begins with an overview of the student demographics. The consultants included a summary of the highlights from the School Performance Reports to reflect on the state of the schools being studied. 1. Hugh J. Boyd Elementary School - Seaside Heights Data in this section has been excerpted from the NJ School Performance Reporis (2018- 19). In 2018-19, Seaside Heights had 198 students in Grades PK-6. Of those 198 students the state reports the following general information: Table E41 Enrollment trends by student group Female 56.1% Male 43.9% Economically Disadvantaged Students 6.1% [Students with Disabilities 303% English Learners 12.1% Homeless Students 2.5% Students in Foster Care 15% Military-Connected e Students oon Migrant Students 0.0% Table E2 Enrollment by racial and ethnic grou White 268% Hispanic 55.6% Black or African & ‘American poe Asian 05% Native Hawaiian or a Pacific Islander ‘ ‘American Indian or oom Alaska Native ee Two or More Races 6% risesTable E3 Enrollment by home language English 36.1% ‘Spanish 40.4% Arabic 1.5% Albanian 1.0% Other Languages 1.0% Mission Statement: “The Hugh J. Boyd Jr. Elementary School of the Seaside Heights School District is a small town elementary school which prides itself on a family type atmosphere and tradition. The district incorporates all stakeholders in the educational process in making the school a student-centered institution.” Tn considering the comments included by Seaside Heights, it is clear that the district has attempted to improve student achievement at Boyd by implementing changes in curriculum and instruction, undertaking several research based best practices and actively incorporating all stakeholders. Particular attention has been given to Language Arts and Math; improvement was noted in the PARCC Language Arts assessment of 2016. The school accomplished this by targeting instruction to individual students and has begun to design and implement a program of tutoring and mentoring. Teachers and staff are engaging in professional development that is aimed at improving student achievement in reading and math. Twenty-first century skills are stressed; students had individual access to laptops well before it was required by the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, the school has directed resources towards creating a safe and caring culture. Student success is recognized and celebrated through partnerships with the community, the township and local police and fire departments. Parent student handbook link: https://www.sshschool.org/parents-students/hjb-student- handbook ‘NJ QSAC monitoring in April 2021 Seaside Heights School District received less than the required score in Instruction and Program (70/80) and did not receive high performing certification from the NJ State Board of Education. https:/www.nj.gov. 2.” Toms River School District {All data in this section has been excerpted from the NJ Student Performance Reports (2018- 19), In 2018-19, Toms River had 15,302 students enrolled PK through 12 in the 18 schools in the district; 29% were economically disadvantaged; 18.1% were classified as students with disabilities; 13.1% were English Language Leamers and the Student to Teacher ratio was 13:1. '54,8% of students met or exceeded the state expectations in ELA and 37.4% met or exceeded the state expectations in Math. ‘795884at A nine-person Board of Education and a Superintendent govern Toms River; individual Principals serve in each school building, 3. East Dover Elementary School -Toms River In 2018-19 East Dover had 733 students enrolled in Grades PK through 5. Of those 733 students: Table E4 Enrol it Trends by Student Grou Female 412% Male 52.8% Economically Disadvantaged 36.0% Students ‘Students with Disabilities ae English Learners 0.0% Homeless a Students a ‘Students in Foster : Care 0.5% Military-Connected| 3 Students Migrant Students 0.0% Table ES Enrollment by Racial and Ethnic Group White 715% Hispanic 17.7% Black or African ‘American 3008 Asian 22% Native Hawaiian or| Pacific Islander eee |American Indian or 0.1% Alaska Native a Two or More Races ore nieseet42 Table E6 Enroliment by Home Language English 92.9% ‘Spanish 5.7% Other Languages 1.4% Mission Statement: “East Dover Elementary School is an educational community where a dedicated team of professionals inspire, challenge, and support students to become lifelong learners.” Vision Statement: “At East Dover Elementary School, we strive to create diverse leaming environments where our students and faculty are Respectful, Responsible, and Reflective.” In considering the comments that East Dover has chosen to include, itis evident that the school engages in best practices in curriculum and instruction, utilizes research based best practices to impact student achievement and is committed to creating a safe and caring community for all students. The school is inclusive and supports diverse leamers by incorporating innovative curriculum including @ sensory room and positive behavioral supports for students with disabilities. Teams work closely to identify individual student needs and meet the needs through programs within the school, and programs throughout the larger Toms River district. The curriculum is aligned with the NJ Student Leaming Standards and teachers engage in Professional Learning Communities to be reflective educational practitioners and to insure vertical and horizontal alignment of the curriculum; as a result, students leaving East Dover are prepared to continue at Intermediate East and any of the succeeding Toms River schools. Engagement of stakeholders is a priority at East Dover; by way of example, the school hosts a monthly Parent Academy to help parents learn the best ways to educationally support their children, The school administers a climate survey to all ofits stakeholders to ascertain successful areas and areas that need attention. East Dover bas a close partnership with the Toms River Police Department and a Class 3 officer is stationed in the school. 4, Intermediate East School -Toms River In 2018-19 Intermediate East had 1,420 students enrolled in Grades 6 through 8; 448 in Grade 6. Of those 1,420 students: 7198884Table E7 Enrollment Trends by Student Group Female 30.1% Male 49.9% Economically Disadvantaged 23.2% Students, Students with Disabilities pee English Learners 0.0% Homeless Students 0.6% [Students in Foster Care| 0.1% Military-Connected Students ote Migrant Students 0.0% Table E8 Enrollment ial and Ethnic Grou White 80.8% Hispanic 12.5% Black or African American aoe Asian 2.0% Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander pare ‘American Indian or ca Alaska Native Two or More Races 2.0% 7195884 43Table E9 Enroll by Home Language English 93.3% ‘Spanish 43% Other 24% In considering the comments that Intermediate East has chosen to include, itis evident that the school engages in best practices in curriculum and instruction, utilizes research based best practices to impact student achievement and is committed to creating a positive school climate, ‘The school is focused on addressing the developmental needs of middle school leamers in grades 6 through 8. Student instruction is driven by data; teachers administer regular assessments and adjust instruction based upon the results. Students’ strengths and weaknesses are considered and critical thinking is stressed. The curriculum is standards based and reflects that academics are a priority; 6th grade students have the opportunity to study Geometry. Educational research underscores that this is a best educational practice: math placement in the middle and high grades is correlated with success in college. In addition, students have the opportunity to explore many enrichment opportunities. and clubs and can continue in the music program that they started in Sth grade, Intermediate East teachers and staff members participate in district wide professional learning opportunities as well as specific topics addressing the middle school learner. Intermediate East has a close partnership with the Toms River Police department and is patrolled by a Class 3 officer on a daily basis. C. Comparison of Student Performance on State Assessments Performance on the New Jersey Learning Assessment ("NJSLA") is an important indicator for the effectiveness of the curriculum and in the instruction being provided in any given school and the need for additional interventions to ensure students are college and career ready. Table E10 Percent M or exceeding Expectations on SI ments (201 Assessment | Boyd Elementary TREastDover | T.R. Elementary | Intermediate East ELA 23.4 472 63 Math 23.4 35.0 34 ‘Science (Grade 5.0 21.0 NA 5) i‘ rissese45 ‘The data above indicates that students at Boyd Elementary School struggle in ELA, Math and Science. Although student populations are different especially in terms of socio-economically disadvantaged students, itis clear Toms River has much greater capacity to deliver an appropriate curriculum aligned with the State standards and to provide appropriate interventions. D. Chronic Absenteeism Chronic absenteeism also is a fundamental component of the ESEA Accountability Framework. The State, through its accountability plan required under the Federal Elementary Secondary Education Act, utilizes NISLA proficiency scores as well as Student Growth Percentile (where available) and Chronic Absenteeism. Performance on the ESEA framework provides valuable information regarding the effectiveness of the educational program, curriculum and instruction being provided in any given school and the need for additional interventions to ensure students are college and career ready. In this section, we examine the student performance indicator of chronic absenteeism, which is defined by the NIDOE as missing 10 percent of the school days (some 18 days for most school districts or two days per month). This is an important student performance indicator as absenteeism negatively affects a student's academic performance. As Table E11 demonstrates, students at Boyd Elementary School show slightly greater absenteeism rates than students in both Toms River schools. Certainly, Toms River will need to ensure that Seaside Heights students who are experiencing attendance issues are provided appropriate supports and interventions. Our assessment reveals that Toms River has the infrastructure to be able to provide these supports Table E11 Comparison of Chronic Absenteeism |" indicator | BoydElementary | T.R.EastDover | T.R. Intermediate | | Elementary East Chronic 16.1 (tate Average- | 11.7 (State Average-8.8) | 8.7 (State Average- Absenteeism % 8.8) 8.8) E. — Comparison Of School Readiness And Climate Indicators. We need to look beyond student performance data in order to get a fuller picture of each school and better understand the school’s strengths and weaknesses. The School Performance Reports (formerly known as the School Report Card) issued annually by the NJDOE establish a number of indicators that demonstrate student progress toward being prepared for college and careers. The tables below present these College and Career Readiness/School Climate indicators for comparison purposes. ni9ssee46 Table E12 College and Gareer Readiness and School Climate Indicators Indicator | BoydElementary | T.R.EastDover | T-R. Intermediate | Elementary East [FW incidents * ae 23eee HIB Incidents 3 3 28 Teacher Student 9:1 Bl 14:1 Ratio ‘School 6°0"/ 5°15” 6°10"/ 535” 6°25"/ 5°38” Day/instructional Time ‘Student to 11 131 Device Ratio ‘An important condition for student success is a safe and secure school environment conducive to learning. The State of New Jersey requires school districts to report on an annual basis the number of incidents of violence, vandalism, weapons, bullying and substance abuse. Table E13 School Safety Indicators Indicator | Boyd Elementary TR East Dover | T.R Intermediate Elementary East ‘WR Incidents i ae se ("HIB Incidents 3 3 28 *L incidence of violence was reported; 3 HIB incidents were alleged but not confirmed; there were no police reports and no student disciplinary removals. ‘**4 incidents of violence were reported; 3 HIB incidents were alleged but not confirmed; there were no police reports and no student disciplinary removals. 18429 incidents of violence, vandalism, HIB, or substance were reported; 28 HIB incidents were alleged; 9 were confirmed; there were 4 police reports and 101 in schoo! suspensions/student disciplinary removals. As indicated above, all of the districts provide a school climate that is conducive to learning. F. Accountability Framework The federal Every Student Succeeds Act ("ESSA") requires each state to adopt an accountability system for school improvement that is compliant with federal requirements. New Tersey's school accountability system identifies important indicators for the effectiveness of the ‘curriculum and instruction being provided in any given school and the need for additional interventions to ensure students are college and career ready. The State in its accountability plan utilizes NISLA proficiency scores as well as SGP (where available) and Chronic Absenteeism. rissesa47 Complete school profiles under the accountability plan can be accessed at hitps://www.state.nj.us/education/ESSA/. The table below provides the school’s federal ESSA status as provided in the 2018-19 school performance reports. Table E14 ESSA Accountability Status ‘SCHOOL ESSA Status Tdentified as a school needing “comprehensive support Boyd Elementary and improvement” based on overall low performance T.R. East Dover ‘Not in stafus (no areas in need of improvement noted) Elementary Tdentified as a needing “targeted support” based on a low performing subgroup: Black or Aftican American TLR. Intermediate East students (Gource: 2018-19 School Performance Reports) As part of the New Jersey accountability framework, school districts are monitored by the NIDOE. The Quality Single Accountability Continuum (QSAC) is the Department of Education's monitoring and district self-evaluation system for public school districts. It is a single comprehensive accountability system that consolidates and incorporates the monitoring requirements of applicable state laws and programs and complements federally required improvements. ‘The Seaside Heights School District was monitored through QSAC in April 2021 and received less than the required score in Instruction and Program (70/80) and did not receive high performing certification from the NJ State Board of Education. ‘The Toms River School District was monitored in 2020 and the district attained the requisite score in all categories and received high performing certification from the NJ State Board of Education. G. Impact on Special Learners 1 Introduction In this section we will examine the educational impact of the proposal on students identified as in need of special programs and services. 2, Students with Disabilities Each district is providing specialized programs and services for students with disabilities. The placement data for each district is provided below. Table E15 indicates that both Boyd Elementary and East Dover have high placement rates. We do not envision Toms River having ‘rigssea

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