Professional Documents
Culture Documents
GCC Study
GCC Study
GCC Study
Economic Integration
in the GCC
Executive Summary 1
1. Introduction 2
Main Characteristics of the Gulf Economies 2
The Gulf Cooperation Council 4
Conclusion 24
References 26
Tables
Figures
Annexes
Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by a team consisting of Mustapha Rouis (TaskTeam Leader),
Ali Al-Abdulrazzaq and Kevin Carey under the guidance of Farrukh Iqbal, Acting
Chief Economist, and Shamshad Akhtar, Vice President, Middle East and North Af-
rica Region. The authors are grateful to Jean-Pierre Chauffour and Bernard M. Hoek-
man from the World Bank for their comments on earlier versions. Isabelle Chaal
Dabi and Liliane Vert (World Bank) provided valuable administrative assistance and
vii
This study discusses the status of economic integration of the six Gulf
Executive
Cooperation Council (GCC) countries among themselves, with the larg-
er Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and globally. It also as- Summary
sesses the main challenges to further integration. The GCC is the most
advanced example of subregional integration in the MENA region, and
its objectives are among the most ambitious in the developing world. It
has evolved well beyond a focus on free trade in goods to embrace high
levels of cross-national labor and capital mobility, and the progressive
opening of many sectors within each economy to all member states.
The GCC is much more integrated with the wealth among nationals. This complicates
rest of the world than with MENA because the political economy of economic reform
of the role of oil and gas in trade patterns. strategies such as privatization and subsidy
But integration via labor markets is sig- reduction, which in turn limits the scope
nificant in MENA, especially for Mashreq for regional integration in areas where the
countries and Egypt. Foreign direct invest- public sector is dominant. Fourth, GCC
ment (FDI) linkages from the GCC to the countries compete with each other in sec-
rest of MENA are also important. Never- tors that might otherwise offer scope for
theless, because GCC integration occurs regional initiatives, such as finance, trans-
against the backdrop of fairly similar cir- port, and downstream energy.
cumstances in the member countries, the
mechanisms and drivers of integration are Besides ongoing integration mechanisms,
somewhat different than in other regional particularly in infrastructure, addressing
blocs, where membership is more varied. common challenges should impart fur-
ther momentum to the GCC. These in-
The following are among key characteris- clude: labor market strategy, where there
tics of integration among the GCC states. is scope to revisit the open immigration
First, GCC countries are all highly depen- policy at the regional level; the financial
dent on hydrocarbons, which remain a sector, given the regional spillovers from
core prerogative of national—not regional— country-level debt distress episodes; fiscal
policy. Second, sovereignty is still shared policy, given the countries’ objective of
cautiously, so supranational institutions diversifying revenue sources; and service
are being built up slowly; key decisions sector liberalization, which would expand
emerge from opaque intergovernmental the size of markets and promote the effi-
processes rather than from empowered cient allocation of resources for the GCC
regional institutions. Third, public sec- as a whole. However, a more empowered
tors in each country are closely linked to
the sharing of benefits from hydrocarbon
regional secretariat will be necessary to
push this agenda forward. 1
Chapter 1 Introduction
Main Characteristics of the Gulf Economies
The Gulf Cooperation Council consists of the following six Arab countries: Kuwait, Bahrain,
Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These countries
share historical and cultural ties and aspire to develop a more diversified economic
bloc over time. In 2007, they had a population of about 36 million (10 percent of
MENA) and a GDP of about US$ 826 billion (half that of all MENA).
The GCC countries are high-income, hydrocarbon-based economies. Per-capita GDP in 2007
ranged from about US$ 15,000 in Oman to US$ 62,000 in Qatar. The total nominal
GDP of the GCC economies has more than doubled since 2001, adding the equivalent
of an economy the size of Sweden. The GCC countries have accumulated large fiscal
and current account surpluses in recent years. Public expenditure, derived primarily
from oil revenue, has increased significantly, with a focus on developing the physical
and social infrastructure required for private sector development. Other common
structural features of the GCC economies include a heavy reliance on foreign labor,
a young and rapidly growing labor force, and a large public sector.
The social and political backgrounds of GCC countries exhibit many similarities. All GCC
countries are traditional monarchies, with the state playing a visible role in economic
activity. Kuwait and Bahrain have relatively open political systems, including a writ-
ten constitution, a parliamentary electoral system, and a free press. Though the for-
mal structures of the other four members are less well developed, these countries
have made progress in strengthening political pluralism and participation in recent
years. One unusual aspect of the Gulf is the dichotomy between political develop-
ment, where institutions remain quite traditional, and economic ambitions, which can
be benchmarked against the most sophisticated economies in the world. Increased
political participation in some of the Gulf states has led to a balancing act between
the customary consensus-building approach to decision making and a desire for more
vigorous policy debates on key issues.
Similar economic policies among GCC countries largely reflect their common circumstances.
These commonalities include open economies with free trade and capital movements
and an exchange rate pegged to the US dollar, either directly or indirectly. The de-
gree of trade openness varies, as indicated by the ratio of total exports and imports to
GDP, which ranges from 73 percent in Kuwait to 158 percent in the UAE (Table 1). In
each of these economies, the state maintains an important role in economic activities.
2 The increased global focus on business environment indicators has successfully promoted re-
form and helped economic integration in a number of areas. On ease of doing business
I NTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1
UAE
High Income
Bahrain
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Oman
MNA
FIGURE 1 Rankings for Ease of Doing Business*
Source: Global Development Finance and World Development Indicators data,
70 World Bank, April 2010.
60 * The Logistics Performance Index is the weighted average of a country’s
scores on six dimensions: customs, infrastructure, international shipments,
50
logistics competence, tracking and tracing, and timeliness. Scores range
40 from one to five, with one indicating the lowest performance. Indices are not
30 available for Mauritania and Morocco.
20
10 will require strong political commitment and
0
institutional changes.
Oman
Kuwait
Qatar
Bahrain
S. Arabia
UAE
GCC av.
EU15
NAFTA
3
across borders, enforcing contracts, and closing a business. No score is the other countries. All GCC countries have
available for Libya. open immigration policies for temporary work.
CHAPTE R 1 I NTRODUCTION
This openness to foreign labor co-exists uneas- eration and integration as an integral part of
ily with high levels of unemployment among its agenda.1 The Unified Economic Agreement
nationals in several GCC states. (UEA), ratified in November of the same year,
foresaw a gradual convergence toward an in-
Diversification away from the hydrocarbon sector tegrated economic bloc marked by harmo-
remains a common objective for all GCC members. nized legal, social, and economic systems and
Overall exports from GCC countries remain coordinated external commercial policies and
concentrated in a few commodities, largely oil trade relations. It also called for coordinating
and gas, though there has been some diversifi- industrial policies and promoting joint projects
cation in recent years. GCC countries, like oth- to coordinate value chains of production and
er MENA countries, showed improvement on link transportation networks.2
the concentration and diversification of exports
between 1995 and 2007 (Figure 3). Manufac- The GCC’s organizational structure emphasizes
tured goods in the UAE (22.5 percent of total national governments (as opposed to supranational
exports) represent more than twice the shares bodies) as the primary actors in the integration pro-
in each of the other countries Kuwait has the cess. According to its Articles of Establishment,3
lowest share, at 5 percent (Annex Table A1.5). the GCC encompasses three main bodies:
1 For further historical background see Al-Abdulrazzaq and Srinivasan (2007) and Dar et al. (2001)
2 Although commonly compared to the European Union, the respective starting dates of the two institutions—1957 versus 1981—
Libya Kuwait
Bahrain Bahrain
Yemen Qatar
Saudi Arabia Algeria
Iran Libya
Kuwait Yemen
Algeria Saudi Arabia
Oman Iran
Qatar Morocco
UAE Oman
Lebanon Egypt
Syria UAE
Egypt Jordan
Tunisia Syria
Jordan Tunisia
Morocco Lebanon
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
1995 2007
tial matters and a majority vote for proce- The GCC Secretariat is the administrative
dural issues. Agreements signed between and executive body, which is responsible
the member states are classified as manda- for preparing the meetings of the Supreme
tory or non-mandatory. and Ministerial Councils, as well as back-
The Ministerial Council of the Foreign Min- ground materials and requested studies. It
isters of the Gulf States (or other delegat- also prepares studies and reports and mon-
ed Ministers) holds quarterly meetings to itors implementation of past decisions.
propose policies and prepare recommen- According to its establishment law, the
dations. At the ministerial level, a number Secretariat is an independent body with
of committees (Financial and Economic a budget shared equally among member
Cooperation, Education, Health, and La- states. In this sense, the Secretariat’s role
bor and Social Affairs councils) have been is parallel to that of the European Com-
established, with the duty of preparing mission within the European Union (EU)
studies and submitting recommendations Structure (which also includes the Coun-
to the Supreme Council. cil of Ministers, the European Parliament,
and the European Court of Justice).4
4 Compared to the European Commission, and reflecting its capacity and financial autonomy limitations, the GCC Secretariat
has maintained a low-key role in furthering the integration agenda. The Secretariat, with a staff of about 500, often relies on
external technical support from the EU. 5
CHAPTE R 1 I NTRODUCTION
The GCC also has a number of specialized threats, the worldwide proliferation of regional
agencies in charge of designing and imple- trading agreements, and the rising forces of glo-
menting technical standards, undertaking com- balization have contributed to the momentum
mercial arbitration, and registering patents. behind integration efforts in recent years.
These agencies are headed by representatives
of the member states, and have their own per- A Customs Union Agreement was signed in 2003.
manent technical staff. Among these agencies The agreement aimed to remove restrictions
are the Standardization and Metrology Or- on internal trade and establish common (and
ganization for GCC in Riyadh, the Technical low) external tariffs. For goods of GCC origin,
Telecommunications Bureau in Bahrain, and defined as having a minimum of 40 percent
the Regional Committee for Electrical Energy local value added and 51 percent local invest-
Systems registered in Qatar. ment, tariffs are waived.5,6 Goods that do not
meet the rules of origin criteria continue to
During the first 20 years of its establishment, the face tariffs similar to those applied to goods
GCC focused on coordinating policies in specified from outside the subregion. The member
spheres. Throughout this time, the institutional states have agreed to eliminate the use of tar-
mechanisms remained fairly stable, albeit with iff escalation for industry protection, switching
a growing amount of technical work underly- instead to exemptions for imports of interme-
ing the activities of the major bodies. By 1983, diate inputs and equipment for domestic pro-
the countries had implemented the exemption duction and export industries (Table 3).
of most domestic products from customs du-
ties and simplified customs procedures and The GCC declared common market status in 2008.
travel among GCC states. Retail and whole- The GCC Common Market aims to create a
sale trade were opened up to any GCC na- single environment where citizens of member
tional by 1990. The agreement through which countries enjoy equal rights and privileges, in-
the GCC was founded had also aimed for the cluding the rights to move, settle, work, receive
free movement of labor and capital along with social protection, retirement, health, education
full national treatment in any GCC country and social services, and engage in various eco-
regarding ownership and economic activity. nomic activities and services. It also calls for
However, with some exceptions (such as do- unrestricted rights of ownership of property
mestic trade), progress has been slow due to and equity, movement of capital, and similar
the scale of technical work required to opera- tax treatment.
tionalize these commitments.
The planned establishment of the GCC single cur-
GCC integration efforts picked up in the early 2000s rency in 2010 has been postponed. Initiated at the
after a slow start. The member states signed an GCC Economic Summit in 2001, plans for a
Economic Agreement in December 2001, which common currency were put on hold pending
brought a renewed focus on trade, investment, further studies and harmonization measures.
and other economic issues. Regional security This delay followed the decision of two mem-
5 Under typical customs unions, the rules of origin are abolished due to the adoption of common external tariffs. In the case of
6 GCC, this procedure still is followed pending more complete harmonization of external tariffs.
6 Currently, goods produced in the region’s Free Trade Zones do not meet these criteria.
I NTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1
bers (Oman and the UAE) to opt out, and, Nevertheless, the four remaining member
more recently, concerns about other members’ countries have established a GCC Monetary
readiness in the wake of the financial crisis in Council in Riyadh to continue the technical
Europe and mounting pressures on the euro. steps toward establishing a monetary union.
7
Chapter 2 Integration through Commodity
and Services Trade
Commodity Trade
Intraregional GCC trade flows remain relatively small despite strong growth in recent years.
The average nominal value of intraregional trade increased by about 30 percent per
annum during the period 2004–2008, as compared to 6 percent during 2000–2003
(Figure 4). However, the share of intraregional trade in non-oil trade remained rela-
tively unchanged at less than 10 percent, with the UAE taking the lead as a source of
regional trade (Figure 5). This figure compares unfavorably with other trading blocs
such as ASEAN (23 percent), NAFTA (41 percent), and EU-15 (57 percent)7, reflect-
ing weak complementarities among GCC member states and the relatively liberal
trade regimes that had historically characterized the GCC economies.
Intraregional nontariff barriers are low. The GCC countries have progressively lowered
nontariff barriers, both as part of integration efforts and in response to commitments
under the World Trade Organization (WTO). Significant progress has been made in es-
tablishing unified GCC technical standards (currently covering some 3,000 products)
and harmonizing and reducing customs administrative procedures and clearance re-
quirements.8 Some of the remaining nontariff barriers include preferential policies and
practices related to public procurement requirements and subsidies to manufacturing
industries, as well as continued customs border controls, which could result in tangible
costs related to road transportation regulations and other ad hoc requirements.
Intraregional trade among GCC countries could benefit from further enhancements in regional
infrastructure and reduced border controls. The establishment of dedicated trade corridors
and regional railway links, among other activities, would support trade facilitation.
Reaching an agreement on the removal of border controls would, together with the
ratification of a tariff revenue-sharing mechanism among member states (as discussed
in Section 2D), contribute to further trade facilitation.
Larger gains in GCC intraregional trade would require enhanced complementarities driven by deep-
er economic reforms. Further elimination of trade barriers and the subsequent enlargement
of markets would help to attract investment and promote growth in the tradable sector,
7 These figures are for 2006. See COMTRADE, World Integrated Trade Solution, 2008. The figure for China,
Japan and the Republic of Korea is 21 percent.
8 While the customs union stipulated for the removal of tariff and nontariff barriers, it allowed for a transition
period to phase out protectionist policies such as tariff protection on industrial products, protection of local
8 agents, and excise taxes for some goods. Some of these measures continue today, including border controls and
agency laws.
I N T E G R AT I O N T H R O U G H C O M M O D I T Y A N D S E R V I C E S T R A D E C H A P T E R 2
Services Trade9
Total Imports – Imports Exports Total Inter-regional
World from GCC to GCC Trade
The GCC has made progress in easing intrare-
Source: Comtrade gional restrictions in service sectors. The Common
Market Agreement has been implemented in
thereby contributing directly to growing com- a gradual manner. Currently, GCC nationals
plementarities over time. However, achieving a can move freely among member countries.
10% 9%
2% 1%
0%
0%
88% 90%
Mashreq Maghreb GCC Rest of the world Mashreq Maghreb GCC Rest of the world
Source: Comtrade
9 Data on trade flows in services in the GCC are scarce. In general, measuring trade in services is more problematic than trade
in goods, largely because of the diverse nature of the activities covered. Under the General Agreement on Trade in Services
(GATS), traded services comprise four modes of delivery: (1) cross-border, (2) consumption abroad, (3) supply via commercial
presence, and (4) supply via presence of natural persons. Data corresponding to these modes could be found in the Balance of
Payments and Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services statistics. In GCC countries, however, the quality of trade statistics remains
inadequate both in the extent of coverage and in the distinction between flows to the region and to the rest of the world. One use-
ful source of data on the magnitude of trade in services is System of National Accounts data on selected sectors such as finance,
hotels, and retail sales, but these figures remain highly indicative. 9
C H A P T E R 2 I N T E G R AT I O N T H R O U G H C O M M O D I T Y A N D S E R V I C E S T R A D E
GCC members recently approved a waiver cantly reduced during the last two years, lead-
of visa requirements for expatriates with val- ing to a surge in intraregional capital flows.
id professional visas in other Gulf countries.
Member states have progressively expanded Despite the potential gains, service sector liberaliza-
the list of direct investment activities in which tion involves a number of technical and political
GCC nationals can participate; current areas challenges. Though eased in recent years, restric-
include retail and wholesale trade, recruitment tions on non-GCC foreign ownership and pur-
offices, car rental, and most cultural activities. chase of financial and physical assets continue,
Furthermore, the specification of liberalized with rules varying from one country to another.
sectors has shifted from permitted sectors to The UAE and Bahrain have adopted the most
those not permitted. This negative list includes liberal regimes with regard to foreign entry. A
religious services, foreign manpower supply, recent report by the World Bank, which exam-
certain commercial agencies, and certain social ined five major service sectors, found the over-
services (specifically elderly and handicapped all restrictiveness of services trade policies for
care)10. Nevertheless, the specific regulatory the GCC countries to be high by regional and
measures needed for active cross-border par- international standards (Figure 6).11
ticipation in all other sectors are still being es-
tablished on a case-by-case basis. In 2005, the Services are diverse in their mode of entry, level of
number of business licenses granted to citizens tradability, and market contestability. Furthering
of other GCC countries reached 13,356—near- GCC trade in services would require enhanc-
ly double the number in 1998. Furthermore, ing competition and ensuring efficient markets.
restrictions on stock ownership and property In addition, there would need to be agreement
possession by GCC citizens have been signifi- on an amended definition of the rule of origin
10 10
11
Variations among the member states continue to exist, but there is little transparency on the negative list.
The UAE was not included in this study.
I N T E G R AT I O N T H R O U G H C O M M O D I T Y A N D S E R V I C E S T R A D E C H A P T E R 2
Debt securities markets are overshadowed by bank credit and, to a lesser extent, equities. Bond
markets remain shallow, and investment in secondary bond markets has not de-
veloped, particularly as governments have drawn down outstanding debt in recent
years. GCC markets generally lack institutional investors whose long-term horizons
would provide a natural base for domestic debt market development. With the ad-
vent of Islamic financing, however, GCC banks have boosted the use of sukuk (Is-
lamic bonds). Stock market capitalization ranges from 12 percent of GDP in Oman
to 106 percent in Kuwait and averages between 40 and 80 percent in other countries.
Across the GCC, bank assets (which amount to more than 100 percent of GDP in all
GCC countries) exceed stock market capitalization. The same applies to the capital of
nonbank financial institutions—insurance, capital markets, pension funds, and finance
companies—which are also limited in size and inflexible.
GCC financial markets vary in regulatory regimes and in the level of openness to foreign par-
ticipation. Rules and regulations differ with regard to reserve requirements, open for-
eign exchange positions, payment of dividends and remittance of profits, controls on
lending to nonresidents, and foreign borrowing by individual banks. Although some
restrictions were relaxed within the GCC, many apply regardless of the source of the
inflows, thereby hampering regional as well as global integration.
There is evidence, however, of increased financial sector integration in the GCC. Motivated
by the need to improve efficiency, GCC countries have taken important steps to-
ward implementing best practices in financial have been agreed in principle, although they
regulation and corporate governance, which have not been set as preconditions for en-
have in turn helped to strengthen convergence try.15 In pursuit of monetary union, the GCC
across GCC financial systems. These efforts is expected to continue to harmonize taxation
include moves by the central banks to imple- and spending practices and policies as well as
ment Basel II standards13 and establish sepa- payment systems. In general, GCC harmoni-
rate regulatory authorities for capital market zation measures are likely to be less challeng-
regulation. Five of the stock exchanges in the ing than those adopted by the EU given that
Gulf (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Dubai, and Abu the planned single currency will continue to
Dhabi) are currently cross-listing some of their be pegged to the US dollar, as is currently the
stocks on other exchanges. A recent Interna- case with the national currencies.
tional Monetary Fund (IMF) study examined
the extent of financial integration in the Gulf There is little impetus at the GCC level for coordi-
using capital flow data, interest rates, and equi- nation of financial sector strategies. The financial
ty prices.14 The study concluded that the avail- sector is viewed instead as a potential source
able evidence, while limited, pointed to some of competitive advantage, and several countries
improvement in regional financial integration. have sought to develop themselves as regional
In particular, Bahrain and Kuwait were found financial centers. Bahrain had a head start as
to direct a large share of their investments to- a financial center, especially after the flight
ward the GCC. of offshore banking from Beirut in the 1970s.
Since then, Dubai and Doha have successfully
The establishment of a monetary union has been an attracted regional operations of international
important objective since 2003. GCC countries al- banks and financial institutions, albeit to en-
ready possessed many of the necessary criteria clave regulatory structures with little spillover
for currency union—namely similarities in size, to the domestic financial sector. Saudi Arabia
sources of foreign exchange and trade struc- is creating the King Abdullah Financial City in
ture, and inflation performance. In addition, Riyadh, and will have an advantage as the head-
their national currencies were de facto pegged quarters of the Gulf Monetary Council. While
to the US dollar. The adoption of a single cur- rising competition in this field has helped to lib-
rency—set originally for 2010, but now post- eralize and promote growth, it might also have
poned to an unspecified date—was expected to hindered efforts to harmonize and coordinate
reinforce the positive effects of the common policies in certain areas, including standards for
market by lowering foreign exchange transac- Islamic finance and payment systems.
tion costs and increasing pricing transparency,
competition, and trade. A set of five conver- Some financial sector weaknesses have been revealed
gence criteria (inflation, interest rates, reserves, in the last two years in the aftermath of the global
fiscal balance, and public debt) similar to those financial crisis. Notably, these include the debt
established for the European Monetary Union distress in some Saudi holding companies,
13 The second phase of the Basel Accords, initially published in 2004, attempts to create an international standard for regulations
on the amount of capital that banks need to set aside to guard against financial and operational risks.
14 Espinoza (2009).
15 Khan (2008). 13
C H A P T E R 3 FI N A N C I A L A N D M O N E TA R Y I N T E G R AT I O N
the Dubai World debt restructuring, and the of these negotiations may impede regional fi-
strains on Kuwaiti investment companies. So nancial market development. In principle, the
far, GCC countries have approached these GCC could provide the regional institutions to
situations on a case-by-case basis. Criteria for help coordinate and share information in these
treatment of local and foreign creditors and respects, but there is little evidence that this
approaches to secured and unsecured credi- is happening. Furthermore, the Gulf Monetary
tors have not been well specified. This lack of Council has only just been set up and the UAE
clarity is perhaps inevitable in the negotiation is not a member, so its immediate potential for
of debt restructuring, but the protracted nature this role is limited.
14
Integration through Chapter 4
Infrastructure
Developing integrated intraregional infrastructure will help to increase trade
volumes. Among various categories of physical infrastructure, the most
relevant to regional integration are those needed to facilitate the move-
ment of goods and individuals (such as roads, railways, and ports). Oth-
er important, but specialized, infrastructure categories include those for
easing the exchange of natural gas, water, electricity, and telecommuni-
cations (such as pipelines, power grids, and fiber optic lines).
Overall, transport systems are well developed in the GCC countries, with good road networks
and modern facilities for air, sea, and land transport. Occasional strains in relations be-
tween the member countries have caused interruptions in land-based transport. Cur-
rent efforts to coordinate infrastructure development are taking place in the power,
gas, and railway sectors. However, border disputes have arisen in the planning of
bilateral infrastructure projects (bridges and pipelines) in the coastal waters between
Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This illustrates the continuing presence
of national political prerogatives in the GCC integration process.
An extensive road network links most GCC countries to their neighbors and to neighboring Arab
countries. No dedicated travel corridors exist yet, however, and there are some varia-
tions in national specifications for freight-moving vehicles. Some progress has been
made in unifying fees, traffic controls, highway safety rules, and vehicle specifications.
Rail is not currently a major mode of transport in the GCC. Railway lines exist in Saudi
Arabia, predominantly for freight, and several lines are not interconnected. Indi-
vidual GCC countries are considering urban light rail or subway systems. A planned
GCC rail network is undergoing a feasibility study, and various country initiatives
are underway to expand national rail networks. Saudi Arabia is proceeding with in-
tegration of its own rail network—the critical ingredient being the new “Landbridge”
between Jeddah and Riyadh, with interconnection to existing lines between Riyadh
and the Gulf coast.
The air transport industry in the GCC region has experienced unprecedented growth during the
15
past eight years. Arab carriers based in GCC countries have become major players in
long-haul aviation, with a particular focus on capturing a larger share of the air transport
C H A P T E R 4 I N T E G R AT I O N T H R O U G H I N FR A S T R U C T U R E
market between Europe and the United States strategies focus on energy-intensive industry and the
on the one hand and Asia on the other. This has desire to switch to gas-powered electricity generation
provided an important new source of connectiv- in order to free up oil for export. Qatar has the
ity to the region, which previously relied on Eu- richest natural gas reserves in the region, with
ropean hubs for most intercontinental service. 25,513 bcm of ready-to-export gas. Although
All GCC members except Saudi Arabia have most of Qatar’s gas is currently exported by
signed some form of open skies agreement. liquefaction, the Dolphin pipeline is used to
move gas to the UAE and Oman. This has
GCC countries have nearly completed the intercon- proven important to both countries, as their
nection of electricity grids, which will allow electric- own gas resources are complex and expen-
ity exchange among all six member states. The goal sive to exploit. There has been some thought
of this interconnection is to share the reserve of constructing a larger pipeline system that
capacity of member countries, improve the re- would include Bahrain and Kuwait, but the
liability of electricity supply, and reduce the countries have proven cautious in promoting
need for investment in new generation capac- a regional market for gas, as East Asia and Eu-
ity. Feasibility studies have been undertaken to rope have been seen as offering better prices
assess the feasibility of interconnecting Yemen and greater diversification. Still, the develop-
with Saudi Arabia. ment of sale gas in Europe and North Amer-
ica, and its consequent effects on demand
The GCC has significant potential for cross-border from these regions, could increase interest in a
gas pipelines given that the countries’ industrial GCC-level gas market.
16
Global Integration Trends Chapter 5
External Trade Policies
The GCC’s external tariffs are low. Historically, GCC economies have maintained low
external tariff barriers as a result of their narrow production base and sizable oil
wealth. The signing of the Customs Union Agreement in 2003 helped to further re-
duce overall external tariffs, as the agreement called for establishing a common exter-
nal tariff of 5 percent on most imported merchandise and 0 percent on essential goods
(estimated to represent about one-fifth of total imports). As a result, the average Most
Favored Nation (MFN) applied tariff rate dropped from 8.2 percent in 2000–2004
to 5.9 percent in 2006–2009 (Figure 7). With the steady erosion of customs revenue
due to external free trade agreements, GCC countries are planning to shift to a value-
added tax to replace customs revenue, diversify tax bases, and ensure harmonization
of trade in the common market.
There are variations in the external trade regimes of GCC member states. The applied tariff
rates of GCC countries vary according to differences in protective and preferential
tariffs (Figure 8). In general, trade regimes with third countries could fall under three
categories: (i) free trade, (ii) MFN status, or (iii) tariff preferences. As all the GCC
countries are members of the WTO, MFN treatment is provided on a multilateral
basis and is thus outside the scope of the organization. There are some differences in
tariff preferences offered to other countries (or to certain country products), though
data on these arrangements and the magnitude of preferences given under the bilti-
lateral deals are not well documented. Little is known about the GCC’s current efforts
to compile such information and unify preferences16.
The Gulf countries have adopted two broad strategies for liberalizing FDI. One approach is
to initiate broad reforms of national rules and bureaucracies, and the other is to cre-
ate discrete enclaves—or zones—with independent, liberalized regulations and well-
established infrastructure. The second approach has seen its fullest application in the
UAE, where it is an important element of the diversification strategies of emirates
other than Abu Dhabi. However, significant FDI flows to the GCC are driven by en-
ergy sector investments and are better seen as reflecting bilateral and project-specific
arrangements between a foreign investor and a domestic partner (such as the national
oil company). Oman is the best example of a country where broad reforms were
combined with the promotion of downstream energy sector FDI.
16Details on trade policy variations among GCC countries are given in Office of the US Trade Representative.
2009. 17
C H A P T E R 5 G L O B A L I N T E G R AT I O N T R E N D S
Bahrain
GCC Avg.
Qatar
S. Arabia
UAE
Kuwait
trade relations, due either to a lack of politi-
cal will or to weak administrative capacity. TTRI MFN applied tariff
The implementation of multilateral policies
is also constrained by continued asymmetries Source: World Trade Indicators, World Bank (2006–2009).
Note: The MFN applied tariff is the simple average of the MFN applied tariff
in the trade (and industrial) policies of GCC rates (ad valorem and ad valorem equivalents of specific tariffs).
member states. In essence, the slow progress
reflects variations in resources and develop-
ment strategies among member states, as well eas like the environment, industry, and com-
as difficulties in reaching compromises on petition, together with the absence of effective
strategic economic issues. The slow progress enforcement mechanisms. Collective negotia-
could also be viewed as a result of gaps in the tion of trade agreements, in addition to ensur-
GCC structure and in collective policies in ar- ing consistency with the terms of the customs
17In mid-2009, the GCC signed a free trade agreement with the European Free Trade Association (Iceland, Liechtenstein,
18 Norway, and Switzerland). In addition to multilateral trade negotiations, the GCC has taken an active role in some international
conventions and agreements, particularly those related to environmental issues.
G L O B A L I N T E G R AT I O N T R E N D S C H A P T E R 5
union, could help increase bargaining power stacles to greater trade integration between the
and improve trade terms. Given the lack of a GCC and other members of PAFTA.
clear and effective mechanism to reach inter-
nal consensus, however, it could risk slowing Discussions continue regarding the full entry of Ye-
down negotiations and watering down final men into the GCC. Yemen enjoys special privi-
agreements. leges with the GCC and is a member of eight
specialized GCC councils related to health,
labor and social affairs, education, sports, stan-
Integration with the Arab World dards, and industrialization. But Yemen is not
yet a full member of the GCC, and no clear
The GCC states are active members of PAFTA, or formal accession plans are in place. The
which was established in 1997 under the auspices GCC’s cautious approach toward integrating
of the Arab League and went into effect in 2005. Yemen reflects disparities in political and eco-
The current membership of PAFTA includes nomic backgrounds. Though Yemen shares
18 of 22 Arab countries. The main provisions similar cultural and religious systems with the
are the progressive removal of tariff and non- GCC countries, it differs with regard to politi-
tariff barriers on intra-PAFTA trade in manu- cal regime, resource endowments, institutional
factured goods. Signatories of PAFTA have details, and regulatory environment.
recently launched efforts to extend integration
to encompass trade and investment in services,
and to strengthen efforts to reduce nontariff Membership in WTO
trade restrictions. PAFTA has removed tar-
iffs among its members, and trade has conse- All GCC countries are members of the WTO. Saudi
quently increased among GCC members and Arabia was the most recent GCC member to
other members of PAFTA. However, nontariff
barriers remain pervasive and form major ob-
join the WTO in 2005. Because various GCC
members joined the WTO at different times, 19
C H A P T E R 5 G L O B A L I N T E G R AT I O N T R E N D S
trade reform commitments vary from one Relations with the European Union
country to another. Saudi Arabia and Oman,
both large net importers of services, have Efforts to integrate with the EU have moved slow-
undertaken the most comprehensive commit- ly. The first major milestone of EU-GCC en-
ments under the GATS, covering 37 and 31 gagement came under the 1989 Cooperation
(out of 55) sectors, respectively. Bahrain is a Agreement, which set the stage for coopera-
net service exporter and has undertaken mod- tion in various fields and for negotiations on
est commitments under the GATS. a free trade agreement, which continues to be
unrealized. In 2003/2004, the EU declared its
GCC countries have made progress toward a unified intention to link EU-GCC cooperation with its
anti-dumping policy. One of the main objectives broader (and more ambitiously pursued) Eu-
of a customs union is to harmonize policies on ro-med dialogue, but this has not been imple-
remedies, rules of origin, tariff and nontariff mented vigorously.19
barriers, customs valuation, and other issues
that have generally been designed in accor- Slow progress on the EU-GCC free trade agreement
dance with corresponding WTO standards. is caused by disagreement over political reforms and
Until recently, member countries exhibited some of the industrial and sectoral policies in the
variations in anti-dumping and anti-trust poli- Gulf. Political reforms at issue include human
cies. In 2007, the GCC established a technical rights, foreign labor, and civil society partner-
office to follow up on injurious trade practices, ships. Concerns over industrial and sector
with the objective of unifying efforts and en- policy center on the provision of low-priced
hancing the bloc’s negotiating position. The domestic gas or refinery products to the pet-
technical office ensures consistency with WTO rochemical industry. In recent years, progress
agreements on anti-dumping, subsidies, and has been made in resolving contentious issues
countervailing measures and safeguards.18 such as rules of origin, gas price subsidies in
the GCC, and access for GCC petrochemicals
Some important trading partners of the GCC are not and aluminum exports to the EU.20 Current
WTO members. These include Yemen, Lebanon, negotiations are focused on access restrictions
and Iran as well as Libya and Algeria. This dif- in a number of services sectors in some coun-
ference in WTO status complicates trade ne- tries—notably banking, telecommunications,
gotiations with these countries (for example, and ports, and on government procurement
within the PAFTA framework), as the common policies.
template and disciplines that would come from
mutual WTO membership are not available.
18 In following up on the claims and investigations addressed to GCC states, the technical office found that ten anti-dumping
protectionist duties and two protectionist duties against the increase of imports imposed on the exports of some GCC states.
19 Recent news reports have quoted GCC officials as saying that a free trade agreement with the EU could be reached before
21 There are several regional economic integration models, including, in order of depth, free trade areas, cus-
toms unions, common markets, economic unions, and full political union.
22 The retention of border controls could be an important element of a planned GCC-wide value-added tax. 21
C H A P T E R 6 I S S U E S A N D C H A L L E N G E S T O FU R T H E R I N T E G R AT I O N
Improvements in the organizational structure of the The GCC faces political hurdles to coordination and
GCC could assist integration efforts. The GCC’s cooperation. While similar cultures and security
current structure is heavily biased toward the interests ease these obstacles, relinquishing sov-
intergovernmental model that features com- ereignty remains a serious concern. Delays in
monly in the integration arrangements of de- the proposed GCC monetary union and in mul-
veloping countries. This model is reflected tilateral accords with the EU serve as two clear
by the absence of a central executive body examples of this challenge. To start, harmoniza-
with enforcement powers and by the pres- tion efforts could focus on areas that face the
ence of a weak dispute settlement mechanism. least political resistance. Strong complementa-
Policy decisions in the Supreme Coun- rities and common borders may facilitate the
cil require unanimous approval. Although adoption of domestic regulatory reforms that
unanimity alone is not a unique feature are important in promoting trade, including the
of GCC decision making, it is important harmonization of customs procedures, sanitary
to note that technical support to the GCC and technical standards, public procurement,
decision-making process can be strained and investment rules. By deepening regional
and, as a result, decisions are difficult to reach cooperation across a broad spectrum of issues,
and follow-up is challenging. the GCC can help cement crucial political and
security alliances, which can in turn strengthen
Reflecting the aforementioned weaknesses, important incentives for liberalization.
common policies, laws, and strategies are lacking.
Missing elements are related to public goods A clear regional policy on reducing structural dispar-
such the environment and clarity of social pro- ities and fostering balanced development is needed. In
tection mechanisms (which are often provided the past, intraregional assistance was provided
on an ad hoc basis by local charities), and poli- on a bilateral basis, most notably to Oman and
cies related to competition, foreign investment, Bahrain. Adopting a regional policy, including
and private sector development. To achieve the establishment of funds administered at the
harmonization, member states have worked in- GCC level, will be an important step toward
dividually to bring their policies and laws closer building consensus in other economic and
to each other. In particular, the harmonization trade areas, and toward future enlargement
efforts of the Gulf States need to continue in: initiatives. The GCC needs to adopt explicit
policies that deal with: (i) strengthening weak-
Labor and immigration laws; er members and compensating them for losses
Taxes and public service charges in areas that may occur as a result of collective global
where cross-border elasticities are signifi- integration efforts and enlarging membership,
cant; and (ii) providing additional support to help
Foreign investment laws and incentives poorer members improve living standards
granted to foreign investors; in order to increase social cohesion between
Commercial laws governing ownership of rich and poor member states. One channel
companies and properties; for more balanced development, which has
Shipping and movement of cargo; received little attention, is the coexistence of
Aviation and air transport; and high unemployment among nationals with a
the EU, there is no sizable movement of na- changes in the political culture at the individ-
tionals within the GCC to alleviate local job ual country level, greater transparency would
market pressures. require improved technical capacity and stron-
ger organizational structures. At the level of
Increased transparency and public accountability GCC organization, improved effectiveness
will help to accelerate integration. There is a con- will require greater financial and operational
siderable lack of public awareness about the autonomy of the Secretariat supplemented
nature of trade and integration barriers, and with effective governing system that includes
about current efforts to address these hurdles. additional evaluation bodies and the channel-
This weakens reform incentives in GCC mem- ing of resources to regional think-tanks and
ber states and reduces pressures to enlarge chambers of commerce to participate in the
membership. In addition to fundamental monitoring process.
23
Conclusion The GCC has made good progress on regional integration since its establish-
ment in 1981. Integration efforts have gained considerable momen-
tum following the ratification of the Unified Economic Agreement
in 2001, the signing of the Customs Union Agreement in 2003, and
the adoption of the Common Market Agreement in 2008. Under
the Customs Union Agreement, member countries have eliminated
intraregional tariffs, unified external tariffs, and eased trade restric-
tions, bringing about a notable increase in the value of goods traded
among member states.
The GCC has eased intraregional restric- trade barriers—particularly border con-
tions in the services sector. Progress in this trols and preferential procurement and
area has been particularly strong since industrial policies—and streamlining the
the establishment of the GCC Common cumbersome rules and regulations re-
Market, which called for unrestricted lated to trade would boost the volume of
rights of ownership of property and eq- trade between member states in the short
uity, movement of capital, and similar run, and attract more investment and
tax treatment. Cross-border investments promote further growth in the long run.
and trade in services have increased, as
evidenced by the rising level of cross- The lack of complementarities needs to be
country property ownership, business li- addressed through deeper economic reforms
censes, and stock ownership, along with to enhance economic competitiveness—econo-
bottom-up integration mechanisms such my-wide and, in particular, in sectors that
as ground and air travel. As this form of have trading potential. Relevant measures
integration deepens, more single-market include privatizing public enterprises,
enforcement issues will arise, placing improving the efficiency of government
an increasing demand on the regional regulatory functions, removing restric-
mechanisms of the GCC. tions on FDI (particularly in backbone
services), and relaxing rules governing
Despite important progress, the share of intra- labor mobility. The continuing lack of
regional trade among member states remains harmonization in laws and regulations—
low compared to regional trade agreements particularly those related to public goods
in the Western hemisphere and in Asia. The such as the environment, social protec-
low share reflects the continued presence tion, competition, foreign investment,
of trade barriers, weak complementari- and private sector development—adds to
To move ahead with the integration agenda, the ing more flexibility in the decision-making
GCC needs to strengthen the organizational struc- process and better enforcement of decisions,
ture of the GCC Secretariat, and boost its autonomy together with stronger arbitration and moni-
and resources. Reforms should focus on allow- toring mechanisms.
25
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26
Trade Agreements in Annex 1
the MENA Region
Afghanistan,
Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyz Republic,
Pakistan,
Tajikistan,
Syria Iran Turkmenistan,
WBG Uzbekistan
Lebanon Iraq
GCC ECO
AMU Kuwait
Tunisia Jordan
Agadir Bahrain Sudan
Egypt Qatar
Morocco Saudi Arabia
Algeria
Oman
Mauritania Libya
Yemen
Djibouti GAFTA MENA
Burundi, Comoros,
D. R. Congo, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Kenya,
Madagascar, Malawi,
Mauritus, Rwanda,
Seychelles, Sudan, Singapore
Swaziland, Uganda,
AMU: Arab Maghreb Union (5) Zambia, Zimbabwe COMESA
GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council (6)
GAFTA: Great Arab Free Trade Agreement (18)
ECO: Economic Cooperation Organization (10)
COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (19) Regional Agreements
EFTA: European Free Trade Association (4), includes Iceland, Switzerland, Norway, and Liechtenstein Bilateral Agreements
Agadir: Agadir Agreement for the Establishment of a Free Trade Zone between Arabic Mediterranean Nations (4)
27
Annex 2 Statistical Tables
By geographic sub-region
By geographic sub-region
30
S TAT I S T I C A L TA B L E S A N N E X 2
31
A N N E X 2 S TAT I S T I C A L TA B L E S
By geographic sub-region
32
S TAT I S T I C A L TA B L E S A N N E X 2
TOTAL NON-FUEL TRADE WITHIN REGIONS TOTAL NON-FUEL TRADE WITHIN SUB-REGIONS
Total Non-Fuel Total Non-Fuel Total Non-Fuel
Exports Imports Trade Total Exports Total Imports Total Trade
(in US$ million) (in US$ million) (in US$ million) (in US$ million) (in US$ million) (in US$ million)
52,960 38,217 91,177
33
A N N E X 2 S TAT I S T I C A L TA B L E S
By geographic sub-region
34
S TAT I S T I C A L TA B L E S A N N E X 2
35
A N N E X 2 S TAT I S T I C A L TA B L E S
36
S TAT I S T I C A L TA B L E S A N N E X 2
Ores, metals,
precious stones Pearls, precious
Agricultural raw and non- stones and non-
materials (SITC monetary gold Ores and metals Non-ferrous Other ores monetary gold
2 less 22, 27 (SITC 27 + 28 + (SITC 27 + metals and metals (SITC 667 +
and 28) 68 + 667 + 971) 28 + 68) (SITC 68) (SITC 27 + 28) 971) Fuels (SITC 3)
0.2 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.7 1.3 80.7
37
A N N E X 2 S TAT I S T I C A L TA B L E S
38
S TAT I S T I C A L TA B L E S A N N E X 2
39