Hazard and

Disaster
Managment

Name : Muneeb
Hassan Reg
No:21-CE-79
Submitted To: DR
Fiaz Tahir
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF
2022 FLOOD IN PAKISTAN
02-10-2022
 Table of Content
1 :Economic Effects …………………………………………...1
1.1 :Introduction ...……………………………………………………………..1
1.2 :Agriculture ………………………………………………………………..1
1.3 :GDP ………………………………………………………………..2
2 :Social Effects ………………………………………………….3
2.1 :Loss of Livelihoods …………………………………………………….3
2.2 :Political Implications …………………………………………………….3
2.3 :Large Migration .……………………………………………………3
2.4 :Hindering Economic Growth and Development …………...4
3 :Conclusion …………………………………………………….4

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 1. Economic Effects
1.1 Introduction
According to preliminary estimates, the floods inundated 7
million hectares of the 22 million hectares of total cultivated land,
representing approximately 33%. An initial assessment, according
to data shared by the provinces with the Ministry of Food Security
and Research, reveals a damage of Rs 298 billion in the
agriculture and livestock sector. The agricultural sector accounts
for 23% of GDP and 19% of gross output. The agricultural sector
output multiplier is estimated to be around 1.43. This represents
the sector's ability to multiply an input of 1% by an output of
1.43%. The share of private consumption expenditure in the
agriculture sector is 12%, the fourth highest share of all sectors in
private consumption expenditure. About 37.4% of the workforce
is employed in the agricultural sector.
1.2 Agriculture
The floods of 2010 negatively affected the agriculture sector,
as major crop production declined by 15%. Agriculture growth
dropped to 0.23%, pulling the overall GDP growth to 2.58%. The
destruction caused by the recent floods is of a higher magnitude,
as it has flooded vast areas of cultivated land. The damage caused
to the cotton crop has been irreparable, as it contributes 1% of the
GDP. Vegetables, date palms, sugar cane, and rice crops also got
badly damaged which can be translated into a 50% production
loss. Around 700,000 to 800,000 livestock has been lost, as it
contributes 11% to the national GDP.

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 Figure 1.2

1.3 GDP
The economic impact of this nature can be summarized as a
reduction in GDP growth by 3.84%. GDP growth next year will remain in
the 1-2% range, combined with higher inflation and higher
unemployment. The government should renegotiate with the IMF to
provide relief for the agreed condition of the provincial surplus and
reduce non-development spending to spend more on rebuilding
infrastructure. Support price for wheat should be announced as soon as
possible with farm input subsidies and interest free loans

Figure 1.3

2. Social Effects
3
1. 2.1 Loss of livelihoods: As communication links and
infrastructure such as power plants, roads and bridges are
damaged and disrupted, economic activities come to a
standstill, resulting in the dislocation and dysfunction of
normal life for much longer than the duration of the flood.
Similarly, direct impact on productive assets, whether in
agriculture or industry, can regularly hamper activity and
lead to loss of livelihood.

Figure 2.1
2.2 Political implications: Ineffective response to relief
operations during major floods can lead to public dissatisfaction or
loss of trust in authorities or state and national governments. Lack
of development in flood-prone areas can cause social inequality
and even social unrest, which pose a threat to peace and stability
in the region.
2.3 Large Migration: Frequent flooding, resulting in loss of
livelihoods, production and other prolonged economic impacts
and types of suffering can trigger mass migration or population
displacement. Migration to developed urban areas contributes to
the overcrowding in the cities. These migrants swell the ranks of
the urban poor and end up living in marginal lands in cities that
4
are prone to floods or other risks. Selective out-migration of the
workforce sometimes creates complex social problems.

Figure 2.3
2.4 Hindering economic growth and development: The high
costs of relief and reconstruction can adversely affect investment
in infrastructure and other development activities in the area and
in certain cases can cripple the region's fragile economy.
Repeated flooding in the region may discourage long-term
investment by both the government and the private sector. The
lack of livelihoods combined with skilled labor migration and
inflation can have a negative impact on the region's economic
growth.

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 Figure 2.4

3 Conclusion
With growth rates much below historical averages, an aid-based,
business-as-usual approach to post-flood reconstruction would
undoubtedly be detrimental to the economy for years to come. The
real amount of aid received will never be very high due to donor
fatigue and the bad reputation of the government. Regardless, it is
unclear that even higher aid levels alone would start the reform
and governance improvement processes required to put the nation
on a course of high sustained growth, capable of producing the
resources to lessen the harm from future floods. In these
conditions, each cycle of flooding would have astronomical
economic consequences. The New Growth Framework’s
entrepreneurial-based approach, which focuses on the
development of new businesses and innovative activities, offers
promise for the future.