Current Cocoa production and opportunities

for re-invest in the rural sector. Côte

d’Ivoire, Ghana and Indonesia.

Amsterdam, 23-24 May, 2007.

WCF meeting

Francois Ruf
CIRAD
1. Akokoaso in the 1930s (Beckett 1944)
2. Models
3. Current investment in cocoa inputs
4. Current investments in cocoa plantings
5. Diversification turned into mere re-conversion
6. Diversification between dangerand success
7. Seemingly successful tree crop diversification
8. The specific case of timber
9. Risks on food self-sufficiency
10. Potential lessons : towards which investments?
 1. Akokoaso in the 1930s (Beckett 1944)
as an introduction to sustainability
and investment in cocoa farming

Cocoa farmers with

- surplus foodstuffs 32
- sufficient “ 107
- inadequate “ 40
* Food farmers
seasonal supply only10
-----
269
One major strength of family agriculture
“The meat supply provides a different picture,
almost half the total consumption being brought in
(through the market)

The sheep, goats, bush meat and snails together

comprise the home grown meat supply,
but
over 45% of the total consumption is brought in,
chiefly in the form of dried fish
caught by fishermen from the coast towns”.

(Beckett 1944, 22.)

70 years later, as bush meat has gone with
forest, what are we waiting for?
A strong need to help famers to invest
in fish pounds: a major health issue
 From Indebtedness to Diversification

Indebtness is another issue raised by Beckettt

before he starts talking about cocoa! (p 30-45).

Lack of cash, late payments, seasonal payments

leads to structural indebtedness

• education, external help as said by Beckett,

….
• but also and more importantly :
diversification of revenues
 2. Sustainability and investment in cocoa
the curve problem(s) and opportunities

Cocoa farm cycle and place of food crops

5-ha farm (1 ha per year during 5 years).Hyp.1
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
Kg

2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

years
 A logical evolution directed by the demographic
pressure : less land, more labour to invest (Boserupian
mechanism)

Model of returns to labour in rainfed and irrigated rice fields

800
700
Returns to labour

600
500
400
300

200
100
0
10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290

Labour (mandays)

'Upland' (rainfed) paddy Irrigated paddy

 A first more optimistic view : Cocoa does not
necessarily and totally exclude food crops
(Plantain, ‘Coco assie’)..
Cocoa farm cycle and place of food crops
5-ha farm (1 ha per year during 5 years).Hyp.2
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
Kg

2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

years
 A more optimistic hypothesis in terms of tree life cycle and
returns but in that case, the food problem … may increase
against a background of land scarcity

Cocoa farm cycle and place of food crops

Hyp.3. A longer longevity is an option
but marginalizes the role of annual crops, hence a risk
3000

2500

2000
Kg

1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

years
 Hence a need to invest on research on food crops associated to
cocoa trees, mostly at the initiative of cocoa farmers, during the
mature phase.

Cocoa farm cycle and place of food crops

5-ha farm (1 ha per year during 5 years).Hyp.2
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
Kg

2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

years
 A need of different strategies of investment at the
different points of the cycle, including the need for
farmers to re-invest before it is too late.
Cocoa farm cycle and place of food crops
5-ha farm (1 ha per year during 5 years).Hyp.2
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
Kg

2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

years
 3. Current investments by cocoa farmers
3.1 Cocoa intensification:
A first option: fertilizers:

Production profile of a 5-ha cocoa farm in Soubré

hyp 1, No fertilizers, no pesticides
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
Kg

2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
years
 Average Year of the Production year of the Production
migrants’ highest (kg) lowest
arrival date production after production
forest clearing

35 migrants 1980 1991 2519 1994 1450

The year of Accumulated Production

first fertilizer fertilizer bags reached in
adoption over years average in
2002/03
2003/04

35 1996 85 4820
migrants

Sources: CIRAD, author’s survey, 1996-2004

 Production profile of a 5-ha cocoa farm in Soubré
hyp 2, with fertilizers and pesticides
being applied before too much
6000 mortality occurs

5000

4000
kg

3000

2000

1000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
years
 Fertilizer consumption per cocoa farm in major cocoa
producing regions of Soubré (Côte d'Ivoire)
and Manso Amenfi (Ghana)
7

6
number of bags

4
3

0
1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04
years
Côte d'Ivoire Ghana
 Fertilizer consumption per cocoa farm in major cocoa
producing regions of the three main
cocoa producing countries
35,0

30,0
number of bags

25,0

20,0

15,0

10,0

5,0

0,0
1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04
years
Indonesia Côte d'Ivoire Ghana
 Despite a more modern way of producing cocoa,
Sulawesi does not escape the sustainability problem

Cocoa production profile of 19 farms in Noling and Tampumea

80000
y = -4273,9x + 69260
70000
60000
50000
tonnes

40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
years
 3.2 The case of CPB infestation and
pesticides in Sulawesi
Farmers' perception of the way to control CPB (Noling and Lewonu)
What do you suggest as the best method of CPB control ?

No idea, does not know effective ways of controlling CPB 6%

Intensive spraying 12%
Intensive spraying + pruning 46%
Coordination of everybody's spraying 15%
Replanting (or possibly rehabilitation) 12%

Intensive spraying and high frequency of harvests 1%

More information about pestiicdes 1%
Add more fertilizers 3%
Side grafting 1%
smoke 1%
Burry the husk or attractive price for the husk 2%
100%
Sources: Survey by Ruf and Yoddang, 2007
Farmers' perception about the kind of help they need
to control CPB (Noling and Lewonu, South Sulawesi)

Some help in labour 27%

Some help in inputs 2%
Some help in labour and inputs 18%
Help to COORDINATE individual spraying 24%
Need information of effective pesticides 13%
Subsidies to cut down trees and replanting 6%
Seasonal Credit to be refunded after the peak season 1%
Help to coordinate the sleeving operation and/or subsidy 2%
Need … of cash to feed the family 5%
An attractive oprice for the pod husk 1%
A better regulation to eliminatre the fake pesticides 3%
100%
Sources: Survey by Ruf and Yoddang, 2007
 4. Cocoa planting
Indonesia

Cocoa planted area by 31 farmers of Noling/Tampumea

1/ in their own villages 2/ in other districts
16,0
14,0
12,0
10,0
(ha)

8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year

in the two villages In other districts

 Côte d’Ivoire : still the same logical trend frm
a region ending its first cocoa cycle ..
Annual Investment in Planting
San Pedro Department

200

150 Cocoa
Coffee
hectares

100 Oil Palm

Coconut
50 rubber

0
< 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-06

Planting periods
 .. a « new » one. The change is in the « new »
Annual Investments in Planting in Bongouanou
(N'zanfouénou, Akakro, Abongoua)

100

80 Cocoa
60 Coffee
hectares

Oil Plam
40 Coconut

20 Rubber

0
< 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-06

Planting periods
 Structure of Cocoa farms in the Marahoué region
Age and planting material

90
80
70
60
Hectares

50
40
30
20
10
0
av 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005-
1960 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09
Planting periods

Tout Venant Intérmédiaire Sélectionné

 Ghana
Annual Investments in planting
in Manso Amenfi village
(Western Region)

250

200
Cocoa
Acres

150
Oil Palm
100 Rubber
50

0
< 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-05

Planting periods
 Annual investments in Obeng
(Maso Amefi district,
Western Region)

200

150
cocoa
Acres

100 Oil Palm

Rubber
50

0
< 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-05

Planting periods
 Annual Investment in Planting
by cocnut farmers of the Axim region
(Asanta, Nkroful, Saluma ..)

90
80
70
60 Coconut
Acres

50 Oil Palm
40 Cocoa
30 Rubber
20
10
0
< 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-05

Planting periods
 5. Diversification … turned
into mere re-conversion
Yearly Planting in the department of Adiake
(Sud-Comoe region, Côte d'Ivoire)

90
80
70 Cocoa
60 Coffee
Hectares

50
Oil Palm
40
30 Coconut
20 Rubber
10
0
< 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-06

Planting periods
 6. Diversification and zone between
danger and success
Coconut
Annual investments in planting Cocoa
in Ankasa (Western Region) Oil Palm
Rubber
Linéaire (Cocoa)
Linéaire (Rubber)

160
140
120
100
Acres

80
60
40
20
0
1980-89 1990-99 2000-05
Planting periods
 Annual Investments in Planting
in the Sud Bandama region

45
40
35 Cocoa
30 Coffee
Hectares

25
Oil Palm
20
15 Coconut
10 Rubber
5
0
< 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-06

Planting periods
7. Cases of seemingly successful tree crop
diversification
Annual Investments in Planting in the region of
Moyen Comoé

140
120 Cocoa
100 Coffee
Hectares

80 Oil Palm
60 Coconut
40 Rubber
20 Cashewnut

0
< 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-06

Planting periods
Estimated revenues x 1000 cfaf in the early 1990s
Cocoa Coffee Oil palm Rubber Total

All cocoa farmers 1147 484 0 131 1622

Sub-group of cocoa farmers

who adopted rubber 707 159 0 621 1488
Sources : Survey F Ruf (CIRAD) 2006
Estimated revenues x 1000 cfaf in 2005/06
Cocoa Coffee Oil palm Rubber Total

All cocoa farmers 648 191 0 486 1297

Sub-group of cocoa farmers

who adopted rubber 502 27 0 2396 2926
Sources : Survey F Ruf (CIRAD) 2006
 Monthly distribution of smallholders' cocoa and rubber sales in
the Fromager region (Côte d'Ivoire)
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

CI Fromager CI Fromager RUBBER

7. The specific case of timber
 Budget simulation of a 14-acre cocoa farm
(5 to 13 years old in year 1)

2 000
1 800
1 600
Net revenues (US

1 400
1 200
1 000 Cocoa
800
600
400
200
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

years
 Budget simulation of a 14-acre cocoa farm
and impact of 2.25 acres of teak

10 000
9 000
8 000
Net revenues (US

7 000
6 000
Cocoa
5 000
teak
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

years
 8. Food risks

Cocoa yields and Cocoa revenues

deflated by the price of rice
in the hills of Tampumea
1 400 7 000

1 200 6 000

1 000 5 000

x Rp/ha 1000
800 4 000
kg/ha

600 3 000

400 2 000

200 1 000

0 -
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year Cocoa yields in the hills Cocoa revenues
• Tackle food crop and nutritional requirements :
– Back to rice
– Move forward with fish pounds

• Timber, timber, and Timber,

– National dialogues. The day of timber’s farmer
– Look for pension funds to invets in smallholder’s timber
– But without pre-conceived ideas and no ‘compulsory agroforestry’

• Cocoa inputs :
– planting material is a State responsibility,
– fertilizers, organic fertilizers, more research on optimal use of
fertilizers and pesticides
– LABOUR : a need to improve productivity (herbicides…)

• Diversification, yes,
but
- rapidly find kinds of moderate support in order to upscale the adoption
(case of rubber in Ghana)
• - Investment should not be abandoned at the same time on cocoa.
• Marketing or infrastructures ?

• Farmers ‘organisations but for what ?

Some unexpected target could be coordination in IPM
Something that may be more crucial than “training”

• Regional Coconut Research and extension

programme / platform in West-Africa