International Journal of Computer Integrated

Manufacturing

ISSN: 0951-192X (Print) 1362-3052 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tcim20

The use of Digital Twin for predictive maintenance

in manufacturing

P. Aivaliotis, K. Georgoulias & G. Chryssolouris

To cite this article: P. Aivaliotis, K. Georgoulias & G. Chryssolouris (2019): The use of Digital
Twin for predictive maintenance in manufacturing, International Journal of Computer Integrated
Manufacturing, DOI: 10.1080/0951192X.2019.1686173

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/0951192X.2019.1686173

Published online: 13 Nov 2019.

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTER INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING
https://doi.org/10.1080/0951192X.2019.1686173

ARTICLE

The use of Digital Twin for predictive maintenance in manufacturing

P. Aivaliotis, K. Georgoulias and G. Chryssolouris
Laboratory for Manufacturing Systems and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering and Aeronautics, University of Patras, Patras, Greece

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

This paper presents a methodology to calculate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of machinery Received 7 December 2018
equipment by utilising physics-based simulation models and Digital Twin concept, in order to enable Accepted 21 September 2019
predictive maintenance for manufacturing resources using Prognostics and health management KEYWORDS
(PHM) techniques. The resources and the properties of them are first modelled in a digital environ- Manufacturing; predictive
ment able to simulate the real machine’s behaviour. Data are gathered by machines’ controllers and maintenance; simulation;
external sensors to be used for the synchronous tuning of the digital models and their simulation. RUL prediction; physics-
The outcome of the simulation is then used to assess the resource’s condition and to calculate RUL. In based model
this way, the condition and the status of the machines can be monitored and predicted as a result
from the simulation of physics-based models, without invasive techniques of common predictive
maintenance solutions. A case study is presented in this paper where the proposed methodology is
validated by predicting the RUL of an industrial robot.

1. Introduction a reactive process for maintenance decisions and cannot

prevent downtime as well as a corresponding expense
Nowadays, industries rely on machine tools of high
from happening (Jay et al. 2014).
complexity, made up of several hundreds of compo-
In order to reduce maintenance cost and maintain
nents which should be monitored and maintained in
machine uptime at the highest possible level, mainte-
order to avoid unexpected failures as much as possi-
nance should be carried out in a proactive way. That
ble. To solve this problem and protect a production
means a transformation of maintenance strategy from
line from stoppages, it is needed to be aware of the
the traditional fail-and-fix practices (diagnostics) to
health status of each manufacturing resource and its
a predict-and-prevent methodology (prognostics) (Jay
components. Eventually, this knowledge enables the
et al. 2014). Prognostics and Health Management
selection and correct scheduling of maintenance
(PHM) is an engineering discipline, focused on predicting
activities. As machinery maintenance technology
the time when a system or a component will no longer
emerged, diagnostics and prognostics gradually per-
perform its intended function (Li, Ding, and Sun 2018).
meated all areas of mechanical engineering.
An estimation of this value is the Remaining Useful Life
More and more sophisticated diagnostic methodolo-
(RUL), which is an important concept in decision-making
gies are available to determine the root causes of
for contingency mitigation. Based on health assessment
machine failure. The failure mode, effects and criticality
information, namely the RUL, as well as on additional
analysis (FMECA) is the most common diagnostic meth-
information about multi-criteria mechanisms, it deter-
odology. The FMECA consists of two analyses; the Failure
mines when a maintenance action should be executed
Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and the Criticality
(Papachatzakis, Papakostas, and Chryssolouris 2007).
Analysis (CA). The utilisation of this methodology
Predictive maintenance platforms have been devel-
enables the identification of known and potential failure
oped with the aim to cover the needs of the data
modes, their causes and effects, the prioritisation of the
acquisition and analysis and knowledge management
identified failure modes as well as the planning of the
(Spreafico, Russo, and Rizzi 2017). These platforms are
corrective actions for the corresponding failure modes
based on three main pillars; the first pillar is responsible
(Spreafico, Russo, and Rizzi 2017). However, diagnostics,
for data extraction and processing, the second one
which is conducted when a fault has already occurred, is
focuses on the maintenance knowledge modelling

CONTACT G. Chryssolouris xrisol@mech.upatras.gr Laboratory for Manufacturing Systems and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering
and Aeronautics, University of Patras, Patras, Greece
© 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
2 P. AIVALIOTIS ET AL.
and calculation of RUL and the third pillar provides
advisory capabilities of maintenance planning
(Efthymiou et al. 2012) (Chryssolouris et al. 2008a). In
addition, strategies based on real-time prediction of
the remaining useful life, under the simultaneous con-
sideration of economic and stochastic dependence,
have been developed aiming at determining the opti-
mal trade-off between reducing the remaining useful
life of some components and decreasing the set-up
cost of their maintenance (Shi and Zeng 2016).
Information about the real component remaining life-
time can be achieved by combining different techni-
ques (trend analysis, component modelling,
simulation), while the determination of the best main-
tenance schedule relies also on the correct assessment
of each component’s impact on the whole system,
apart from its compatibility with company production
deadlines (Aivaliotis, Georgoulias, and Chryssolouris
2017). RUL is the most necessary parameter, which
should be predicted/estimated for the creation and
execution of a maintenance plan (Aivaliotis et al.
2019). A number of researches focus on the calculation
of machine’s RUL based on different approaches.
Ontology implementation allows the definition of the
entities, and their relationships, which are involved in the
design for reliability, maintenance diagnostics, prognos-
tics and maintenance planning (Efthymiou et al. 2012).
Paris’ law and Kalman smoother have been combined in
a generalised fault and usage model, which aims to
provide an improved component health trend and
a better estimation of the Remaining Useful Life. This
state observer technique is a backward/forward filtering
technique that has no phase delay (Bechhoefer and
Schlanbusch 2015). Furthermore, a stochastic model of
the machine degradation evolution has been developed
through the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for prog-
nostics. The distribution of the RUL, before failure, is
estimated by being compared with a failure criterion of
the future degradation states, predicted by GPR (Baraldi,
Mangili, and Zio 2015). ARIMA model has been imple-
mented for the estimation of the RUL, based on historical
data, analysed by symbolic dynamics techniques
(Efthymiou et al. 2011).Real-time prediction of remaining
useful life and preventive opportunistic maintenance
strategy for multi-component systems considering sto-
chastic dependence has already been investigated (Shi
and Zeng 2016).
Despite the fact that a number of predictive main-
tenance tools/platforms and methodologies have been
focused on the RUL calculation, there are still gaps
which are identified. More specifically, almost all the
aforementioned approaches are based on the availabil-
ity of past failure data of the manufacturing systems in
order to calculate the RUL. It means that the RUL can
not be calculated without historical data. Moreover, the
already existing methodologies focus on machine-level
RUL prediction and not in component-level. Due to the
high complexity of the modern machines, the RUL
calculation should take place in the component level.
Another gap which is identified in the above tools and
methodologies is that the models which are used for
RUL prediction are not updated over the time. Most of
them are static and can not be adapted online in case
that real machine functionality is changed. Finally,
a limitation of the already existing approaches is that
the physics phenomena and their degradation profiles
are not taken under consideration.
Scope of this research is to deal with the aforemen-
tioned challenges and to fill these gaps by providing
a model-driven methodology to enable the accurate
prediction of the machine ‘s component RUL. Physics-
based models will be used to model and analyse the
components of a machine including the physics phe-
nomena which affect their health status. The utilisation
of the physics-based models allows the prediction of the
RUL with limited historical data since the prediction is
based on mathematical equations inside the models.
Finally, the proposed approach will enable the Digital
Twin concept using a simulation tuning mechanism
which will allow the online adaption of the digital repre-
sentation of the machine based on the real behaviour of
it. PHM solutions for typical components such as bear-
ings, gearboxes and spindles as stand-alone packages
have grown and proved to be reliable enough for indus-
trial application. However, utilisation of PHM solutions at
the machine level is still very much restricted by the lack
of solutions to collect, connect and control data/informa-
tion from sensors and to combine them via efficient
digital models for the provision of valuable health assess-
ment and prediction results for optimal maintenance
allocation. This work makes extensive use of physics-
based models, aiming at a successful PHM implementa-
tion. As aforementioned, the main pillar of a PHM system
is the prediction of the Remaining Useful Life as it depicts
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTER INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING
the time at which a system or a component will no
longer perform its intended function.
2. Approach
The proposed methodology focuses on the utilisation
of the Digital Twin concept aiming to estimate the
RUL of each machine ’s component. For the RUL
calculation, data coming from different sources
should be gathered and analysed. More specifically,
the proposed model-driven approach will utilise data
coming from the real machine ‘s controller and
embedded sensors as well as data coming from the
simulation of the digital models, aiming to estimate
the RUL.
The simulation of the digital models has resulted in
the generation of data which cannot be reached by
the real machine. During the simulation of a physics-
based digital model, the detailed mathematical
expression of the machine’s components and their
connection between them allow the user to monitor
and gather data from each individual virtual compo-
nent of the machine. To achieve this, a set of Virtual
Sensors are used aiming to define the components
which will be monitored during the simulation. As
a simulation of the physics-based models, it refers to
the solving of the inverse kinematics of the model by
providing position signals as input and gets the cal-
culated torque signals which are applied to each
machine ’s components as a simulation output. As in
reality, the same tasks will be assigned to the simula-
tion models aiming to use the simulation output for
the RUL calculation.
Figure 1. RUL calculation main concept.
3
As mentioned above, the using of static digital
models to generate the required data for RUL predic-
tion is not recommended because the real machine
status may be changed. To ensure that the generated
data by the simulation of the digital model can be used
for the accurate estimation of the RUL, the physics-
based digital models should be updated online by
using data coming from the real world. A simulation
tuning mechanism will be used to ensure that the
simulated functionalities of the machines approximate
as much as possible the real ones. The aforementioned
procedure is analysed hereunder.
To sum up, PHM exploits the estimation of the
machine’s remaining useful life for the identification
of the optimal time in order for the next maintenance
action to be carried out. The main objective of this
research is the calculation of the remaining useful life
of each machine in a production plant, based on the
combined examination of the machines’ controller
data as well as the machines’ physics-based simula-
tion as it is shown in Figure 1.
The procedure for addressing this challenge
includes four phases:
● The first phase consists of the advanced physical
modelling of the machines. Except for the kine-
matic and dynamic characteristics of the
machines, a set of virtual sensors will be inte-
grated into the machines’ simulation models.
● The second phase focuses on the synchronous
simulation tuning of the physics-based machine
models. As the simulation of the machines’ mod-
els is used for their RUL calculation, the machines’
4 P. AIVALIOTIS ET AL.
models should be tuned continuously to avoid
possible deviations between their real and simu-
lated functionality.
● The third phase consists of the simulation of the
physics-based models using as input gathered
sensors and machines’ controller data.
● While the fourth phase includes the combining
of the simulation outcome and monitored
machine data, aiming to predict the machines’
remaining useful life. The reliability parameters
of the machines have been integrated into their
simulation models. Each phase is described in
detail below.
Phase 1: advanced physical modelling of the
machines
As depicted in Figure 2, this phase focuses on the
advanced physical modelling of the machines. The
definition of the kinematic and structural model of
the machines takes place initially. The complete
model of each machine consists of a number of ele-
ments, which represent the dynamic behaviour of
each machine’s component based on the modelling
of the mechanical, electrical, hydraulic and other func-
tions. In order to have a successful and functional
model that can be simulated in an acceptable com-
putational time, it has to be defined which compo-
nent of each machine should be modelled. Some of
the machine’s components are defined as black boxes
(without any knowledge of its internal workings) or as
Figure 2. Steps of advanced modelling.
grey boxes (using theoretical data to complete its
model) or as white boxes, meaning that the exact
functionality and the working mechanism of this com-
ponent are known. Next, the virtual sensors of the
model are defined for the completion of the
machine’s simulation model. The virtual sensors are
modelled as a layout of elements and their function-
ality is to monitor and gather data from the physics-
based models during their simulation. Therefore, it is
important to have defined and specified the data to
be gathered from the model’s simulation in order to
be used in the algorithm of RUL prediction. The use of
virtual sensors, at each element and function of the
model, increases the computational time of the mod-
el’s simulation. Lastly, modelling parameters are
defined, which will be used to update the physical
model, based on the controller and sensor data. These
parameters will be editable and will be associated
with the synchronous simulation tuning with the
aim to adjust the behaviour of the machine’s model
with that of the real machine. More details about the
simulation tuning will be described in Phase 2.
Phase 2: simulation tuning of the physics-based
model
This phase focuses on the tuning of the physics-based
models, as depicted in Figure 3. The aim of this phase
is to realise Digital Twin of the real machines in the
simulation environment. The most important step
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTER INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING
Figure 3. Synchronous simulation tuning mechanism.
here is the definition of the data that should be
monitored both by the machines that are equipped
with physical sensors and the controller of the
resources. According to Phase 1, the modelling para-
meters form the base for the definition of these data.
A data synthesis technique will also be utilised having
taken under consideration both the physical and the
computational reductions. As physical reductions, it
refers to the amount of data to be synthesised (poten-
tial lack of data may occur) while as computational
reductions, it refers to the computational time for the
data synthesis. The synthesised data target to tuning
the models by updating the modelling parameters.
More specifically, the actual data which are gathered
by machines’ controller and external sensors will be
utilised for two reasons; firstly, to provide them as
input in the digital model for the simulation of it and
secondly to compare them with the output of the
simulation. Accordingly, a comparison between the
actual behaviour of the robot and the predicted one
will take place. To realise the Digital Twin concept, the
modelling parameters which have already defined in
Phase 1 aiming to eliminate the error of this compar-
ison should be defined. To achieve it, an estimation of
the modelling parameters should take place periodi-
cally, and to be provided in the digital model. The
tuning procedure is based on the comparison of the
actual machine’s component behaviour with the pre-
dicted one. Signals are compared in order to perform
this comparison. Since the modelling parameters are
estimated and the model is tuned, the deviation
between the actual and digital machine’s component
5
behaviour is decreased. When this deviation is lower
than the desired limit, the tuning procedure stops and
the new modelling parameters are obtained and pro-
vided to the digital model.
A part of this phase is to define the priority of the
online real-time machine’s component tuning. On
the one hand, the synchronous tuning of the simula-
tion models will be responsible for keeping the pre-
cision of the Digital Twin achievement over 95%, but
on the other hand, it is not necessary for all model-
ling parameters to be continuously updated. Some
of the modelling parameters will be tuned with
lower frequencies than others because of their
lower effect on the simulation process. A weight
factor table defines the frequency of tuning for
each machine’s component. In this way, the compu-
tational time is reduced.
Phase 3: digital twin operation
As depicted in Figure 4, the main objective of this
phase is the utilisation of the Digital Twin. After the
modelling of the machines (Phase 1) and their tuning
during their operation (Phase 2), their simulation is the
next step. The same tasks that the real machines have
to perform are used as input to the simulation. These
tasks are performed virtually by using the simulation
software and their outcome is used for the RUL calcula-
tion of each machine (Phase 4). The output of the
virtually performed tasks is compared with the actual
output of the real machine operation. The results of
this comparison are used for the RUL calculation.
6 P. AIVALIOTIS ET AL.

Figure 4. Simulation of the digital models.

Phase 4: RUL calculation The monitored parameters can be related – indica-

tively – to temperature, voltage, current, torque and
Here, as it depicted in Figure 5, the components’ RUL is
power. They are gathered by the machine’s controller
calculated by considering the data gathered from the
directly, whilst the physics-based simulation models
sensors and the machines’ controllers as well as from
use the Virtual Sensors as described in Phase 2. All
the simulation of the machines’ physics-based models.
these measurements are filtered and grouped for
The model's integrated simulation allows for the pre-
a specific time phase. This filtering and grouping are
diction of the system’s behaviour under different work-
performed in order to avoid capturing random abrupt
ing conditions. Furthermore, the digital models can be
changes of the parameters which are not important to
used for the simulation of the machines’ in the future
the machine’s condition. The outcome of this phase
based on the defined production plan. The necessity of
allows for the calculation of the machines’ component
Digital Twin arises from the fact that the collected
RUL during their operations.
sensor data are not always adequate for the RUL esti-
The RUL prediction is based on the comparison of
mation. By using physics-based models, you can extra-
the predicted behaviour of the machine ‘s compo-
polate data using virtual sensors based on the
nents and the nominal behaviour of the machine ’s
mathematical representation of the machine.

Figure 5. RUL calculation methodology.

 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTER INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING
components. This comparison is based on signal com-
parison and more specifically with torque signal com-
parison. The procedure to estimate the RUL for
a machine’s component is to simulate the digital
model continuously taking under consideration the
future operation plan of the real machine as well as
the degradation model of the physics phenomena
during the time and to compare the simulation out-
put with the nominal output of the machine. Efficient
algorithms are used to process and combine the
gathered data aiming to provide the generated infor-
mation to the simulation software. This information is
used as input for the simulation and for the tuning of
the simulation models.
3. System implementation
In this section, the software which was implemented in
order to execute the presented approach is described.
The modelling procedure was developed in the
OMEdit environment, a Modelica connection editor
for OpenModelica. OpenModelica is an open-source
Modelica-based modelling and simulation environ-
ment intended for industrial usage. Modelica is a non-
proprietary, object-oriented, equation-based language
to conveniently model complex physical systems. This
software allows the user to create models that describe
the behaviour of real-world systems in two ways. The
first way is to use components from free Modelica
Standard Library and the second is to create their
own components. Combining these components can
create large and complex systems. So, no particular
variable needs to be solved manually, as the Modelica
tool has been created with the aim to solve them
automatically (Mattsson, Elmqvist, and Otterc 1998).
Figure 6. Data acquisition mechanism.
7
The ‘Data Acquisition’ component is an IoT stack
supported by FIWARE components (Steinmetz et al.
2017). The main components are the ORION Context
Broker to manage the data context and the IDAS IoT
Agent (JSON-MQTT) to mediate between a Message
Queuing Telemetry Transport (MQTT) enabled sensor
and the context broker. The signal processing meth-
ods take place at the gateway level. More specifically,
the signals are filtered using an Infinite Impulse
Response (IIR) filter to cut undesirable frequencies
(noise) (Litwin 2000). The data acquisition and the
signal processing method are depicted in Figure 6.
The RUL calculation is based on the output of
physics-based simulation in combination with
machines’ manufactures data which are used to vali-
date that the calculated RUL is in line with the ideal
operation lifetime. Although high deviations may
occur during the comparison of this metric, since the
RUL is based on the real machines’ operation while
manufacturers’ parameters are based on a theoretical
level, taking under consideration the nominal opera-
tion of a machine and the real-predicted one, the
health status of machines’ components can be
obtained. Accordingly, the maintenance tasks can be
prioritised based on the RUL of each component.
4. Case study
A case study has taken place to demonstrate the func-
tionality of the discussed approach and is presented
and discussed here. The resource which was used in the
case study was a six-axis robotic structure which is used
for welding tasks in the assembly of a thermosiphonic
system. Figure 7 depicts the selected resource during its
operation.
8 P. AIVALIOTIS ET AL.
Figure 7. Real industrial scenario for the system’s validation.
The demonstration of the proposed approach will
be presented below per phase in order to be easier
the correspondence with the aforementioned infor-
mation in Approach chapter.
Phase 1: advanced physical modelling of the
machines
The digital model of the robot is presented in Figure 8.
The modelling level of each digital robot component is
presented in Table 1 and arise from the amount of the
available data which are used in the modelling. The
Mechanical structure component of the robot con-
sisted of the seven links, six joints, six axes, one tool
and one base frame which corresponded to the real
sub-components of the robot. A number of parameters
of each sub-component (e.g. mass, the centre of mass,
inertia tensor, axis of each link and others) have been
defined partially by the manufacturer of the robot
while some of them are extracted from CAD files or
estimated using identification procedures. Each axis is
utilised as a link between the Mechanical structure
component and the six gearbox components. Each
gearbox component consists of one ideal gear which
represents the gear ratio of each axis, one rotational
component with inertia which represents the gears
and one bearing which represent the Coulomb friction.
Following, each gearbox component is linked with the
corresponding input signal component via the
actuator component which was responsible to create
a torque signal for the motion of the corresponding
linked joint based on the input signal component
information.
As it was described in Approach, the second stage
of Phase 1 is the modelling and integration of
a number of virtual sensors in the digital model aim-
ing to gather data which are not reached by any other
sensorial system or robot’s controller. In this demon-
stration, three virtual sensors were used aiming to
gather the position signal in the output shaft of the
gearbox relative to the position signal before the
bearing, to gather the speed signal in the output
shaft of the gearbox relative to the velocity signal
before the bearing and the accelerometer signal in
the output shaft of the gearbox relative to the accel-
erometer signal before the affection of axes’ inertia.
The three sensors are integrated into each gearbox of
the digital model.
Assuming that the gearbox is the most critical com-
ponent for the robots’ lifecycle, the modelling para-
meters of the digital model arise by the gearboxes.
More specifically, the parameters which mainly affect
the gearboxes’ operation are the modelling parameter
Fc which corresponds to the friction component of
a robot gearbox and it is relative with the Coulomb
friction and the parameter Jm which corresponds to
the inertia of the gears (Fernandes et al. 2014). These
two parameters will be tuned over the time by a tuning
mechanism which is presented in Phase 2.
Phase 2: simulation tuning of the physics-based
model
After the modelling phase, the simulation tuning
mechanism was implemented to the models aiming
to realise the Digital Twin. In this case study, the data
which were used for the tuning of the model were data
which were gathered from the robot’ controller and
accelerometers which were placed on robot’s links. For
each gearbox, two signals were monitored; the first
one was gathered using the machines’ controller and
monitor the actual position signal before the gearbox
while the second one was gathered using the acceler-
ometer and monitored the actual torque signal after
the gearbox. The same procedure took place continu-
ously and the data were stored in a local database
while the simulation was running. For each simulation
iteration, the actual position signals for each gearbox
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTER INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING
Figure 8. Robot digital model.
were provided as input to the digital model. The
inverse dynamic digital model was simulated in
OpenModelica and calculate the predicted torque sig-
nal for each gearbox. Accordingly, the tuning mechan-
ism requires also the simulation of the model but with
the initial values of Fc and Jm as they were defined by
gearboxes’ manufacturer.
The data of the real execution and the data of the
virtual execution were compared, and the torque
errors were calculated. The estimation of the model-
ling parameters of the model was based on Nonlinear
Least Square Method. Using this methodology, the
value ranges for parameters were restricted signifi-
cantly. An iterative process was executed using the
estimated parameters with an aim to evaluate beha-
viourthe of the simulated model. The dynamic para-
meters for which the calculated errors were minimum
were saved for the next execution of the program.
This process was executed as many times as the
9
number of the robot experiment having as output
an excel file which involved the dynamic parameters
of the robot. When the parameters have been esti-
mated successfully, the new values of Fc and Jm were
imported in the digital model. Figure 9 presents how
the deviation between the actual and the predicted
torque signal is eliminated during the tuning of the
system by updating the Bm and Jm parameters. These
figures are mentioned to Axis 1 of the robot while the
same procedure took place for the modelling para-
meters of other five axes, too.
Aiming to reduce the computational time of the
system, weight factors are defined for each modelling
parameters which underline how often each para-
meter will be updated. The definition of them was
based on the literature and more specific in studies
which define how each physical phenomenon affects
the machines’ health status (Chandra and Langari
2006; Kang, Zhang, and Jin 2015). The initial time for
10 P. AIVALIOTIS ET AL.

Figure 9. Torque signal comparison without model tuning (a), during the tuning (b) and after the tuning (c).

Figure 10. Nominal torque signal of the Axis 1 gearbox during Figure 11. Comparison of predicted and nominal torque signals
the execution of the welding task. after 1 month.

the execution of a simulation with both parameters to this time period was reduced, by 24%, to 197.6 ms.
be tuned on each simulation iteration was approx. The tuning weight factor of each modelling para-
260 ms and after the definition of the weight factors, meter is presented in Table 2.
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTER INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING 11

Table 1. Modelling level of each digital component.

Sub- Modelling
Component component Function level
Mechanical Link Represent the rigid bodies of White
structure a robot. box
Joint Represent the rotation of a rigid
body around one axis.
Mass Represent the tool of the robot
at its TCP.
World frame Represent the base frame of the
robot.
Gearbox Ideal gear Represent the gear ratio of the Grey box
axis.
Bearing friction Represent the Coulomb friction
of the axis.
Inertia Represent the mass and the
inertia tensors of the gears.
Actuators – – Black box
Input – – Black box
signals

Figure 12. Comparison of predicted and nominal torque signals

after 4 months. Table 2. Modelling parameters’ tuning weight factors.
Modelling parameters Tuning weight factor
Fc 80% (update 1 time each 8 simulation cycles)
Jm 60% (update 1 time each 6 simulation cycles)

Phase 4: RUL calculation

Since the Digital Twin has been created, the digital

Figure 13. Comparison of predicted and nominal torque signals
after 6 months.
Phase 3: simulation of the machines’ functionality
After the modelling of the inverse kinematic robot
model and the digital model tuning, the simulation
of the whole system took place. The monitored posi-
tion signals of the robot’s motors are converted and
imported as input to the simulation via the input
signal components. The simulation parameters were
defined with aim to execute an accurate and fast
simulation. The output of the simulation is the torque
signals of each robot ‘s gearbox which occurred in
order to move the simulated robot as the real one.
The simulation parameters are presented in Table 3.
models are ready to be used for the simulation of the
gearboxes in different operation cases. A set of experi-
ments took place and the health status of each robot
gearbox was calculated as a result of the comparison
between the nominal function of the robot and the
predicted one which was obtained by the digital
model. When the difference between them passed
a predefined limit, then the RUL calculation algorithm
provided the RUL of each element for the correspond-
ing operation case of the machine.
The production plan of the manufacturing com-
pany and mainly the tasks of the welding robot
were taken under consideration for the execution of
the experiments. The figures below depict the opera-
tion of Axis 1 gearbox of the robot during its simula-
tion for a six-month time period. The simulation of the
robot took place once per day within the defined time
period, although one diagram per month is shown to
Table 3. Simulation parameters.
Simulation parameters Values
Number of intervals 30
Start time 0s
Stop time 0.6 s
Integration method Dassl
Jacobian Coloured Numerical
Tolerance 1e-06
12 P. AIVALIOTIS ET AL.
depict how the bearing friction (Fc) and the inertia of
the gears (Jm) effect on gearbox health status. In the
same way, all the gearboxes of the robot were simu-
lated, and the RUL was estimated.
As it is shown in the Figure 10–13, the deviation
between the nominal torque signal and the predicted
torque signal was increased during the time due to the
wear. In Figure 14, the deviations are presented. The
maximum allowed deviation was defined by the user of
the robot taking under consideration historical data
and previous experience.
5. Discussion
Based on the aforementioned case study, the RUL
of robot Axis 1 gearbox was 6 months. It means
that the deviation between the nominal torque
signals which should be applied to the robot gear-
box in order to perform the welding tasks by
moving the robot, and the predicted signals
which are estimated taking under consideration
the future production plan and the degradation
profiles of gearbox components, has exceeded
the maximum allowed limit. The digital model of
each component was updated daily via the tuning
of the modelling parameters Fc and Jm. To achieve
this, the required data were gathered by the
robot’s controller aiming to identify the compo-
nent behaviour and to adjust the digital models
of them accordingly. In a similar way, the other
Figure 14. RUL calculation based on maximum allowed deviation.
robot gearboxes' RUL was estimated. The same
experiment was repeated continuously one time
per day – after the tuning of the digital models.
So, the simulation iteration for the RUL calculation
in this application was once per day. The calcu-
lated RUL was the same in all experiments. Small
modifications may occur if the calculation takes
place in daily base and not in monthly base as in
the presented scenario.
Taking under consideration the results of the pre-
sented pilot case, the proposed methodology enables
the machine’s component RUL prediction and it can
be a part of a more generic predictive maintenance
framework. Except for the RUL estimation methodol-
ogy, the proposed methodology focuses also on the
creation of digital models and the enabling of the
Digital Twin concept. In this research, the method
was implemented and validated on the gearboxes of
a robot. Although the same procedure can be applied
in other components, too.
Finally, a number of limitations and weaknesses
have been identified in this research. Firstly, it is
assumed that the most critical components of
a gearbox are the bearings. According to literature,
the main causes of bearing failures are related to
loading and lubrication issues. In this research, we
are focusing mainly on the wear prediction under
normal operating conditions of a gearbox. This
means that the loading is in the range given by the
manufacturer while the lubrication is deteriorated
due to operational time. This is the reason why this
paper is focusing on friction. The proposed approach
is open in order to integrate vibration parameters in
the future, in another case study. Of course, the
authors will investigate the gearbox wear due to
vibrations in the future. Secondly, the proposed
methodology has not been validated through a real
scenario which includes a machine’s component
breakdown. It means that the methodology works,
and the RUL of each component is estimated.
Although, a real breakdown will validate that the
RUL was estimated with high precision or not.
Thirdly, the physics-based models of some compo-
nents have been modelled as black boxes. It
increases the possibilities of a non-precise RUL esti-
mation for these components. Almost all of these
limitations will be investigated by the authors in
the future.
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTER INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING
6. Conclusion and future work
For the scope of the experiment, a defective gearbox of
Axis 1 of the robot was used to validate the proposed
system. It was demonstrated though that the presented
approach utilising Digital Twin to estimate RUL provides
accurate results that can be for predictive maintenance
considerations and related decision-making, such as for
production planning. Accordingly, the presented
approach can be applied, and it is mostly used, for
manufacturing resources that do not typically have
such long RUL.
More specifically, the utilisation of a physics-based
simulation model offers a variety of advantages. At first,
the condition and the status of the machine can be
predicted as a result from the simulation of physics-
based models, without the machines’ operation being
stopped, as it happens in the common predictive main-
tenance solutions. The presented RUL calculation
method enables the continuous update of information,
related to the machines’ condition at component level
since it can be executed in a loop and in a very short
time. In this way, it is feasible to know the status of each
machine for each one of its tasks. In case that
a statistical analysis is required to be implemented,
this method can be used for data generation since
the user can provide as input virtual tasks. Finally, the
user is able to know of the way that the machine’s
condition will be affected by the execution of a task
even before its execution. Consequently, the specific
method can be used in order to support the user on
assigning specific tasks on the specific manufacturing
resources (Chryssolouris et al. 2008a).
As a future activity, the authors plan to integrate the
proposed methodology in a more generic predictive
maintenance framework which the main role will be
the evaluation of the machines’ health status and the
planning of the maintenance activities. Furthermore, the
authors plan to proceed with a future study that will
focus on a more detailed modelling of machine compo-
nents is aimed, as it will eliminate any possible errors and
uncertainties, thus leading to a more accurate RUL cal-
culation. In addition, the tuning weight factors of the
modelling parameters will be defined by a set of real-
time experiments. In the same way, research will work on
the developing of degradation models for the friction
13
and other critical physic phenomena which affect the
machines’ health status. Finally, the proposed methodol-
ogy will be implemented in other kinds of machines and
will be validated by monitoring the machine until a real
breakdown aiming to evaluate the accuracy of this
approach.
Acknowledgments
Part of the work reported in this paper makes reference to the EC
research project “PROGRAMS – PROGnostics based Reliability
Analysis for Maintenance Scheduling” (www.programs-project.
eu), which has received funding from the European Union’s
Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the
Grant Agreement No. 767287.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
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